Caribbean Hurricane Network
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Weather discussions by Gert & Dave during the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The homepage with the links to local reports from the islands, latest satellite image, current weather outlook can be found here.
They do note that even though an El Nino is going on which normally suppresses hurricane activity, the above normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean plus an enhanced west African monsoon kind of cancels out the 'negative' impact of the El Nino.
With the better satellites up in space hurricane forecast models should become better. NOAA's GFS weather model has gotten a major upgrade as well. Models have been getting very good at predicting the path of the storm. Intensity is another story. We have seen many times in the last couple of years that seemingly tame hurricanes all of a sudden became Cat-5 monsters. Last but not least, NOAA's National Hurricane Center and weather office in San Juan will this year also issue coastal storm surge watches for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. I am actually surprised that they hadn't so far...
So, only a few days left for the official start, we already had one storm, now is a good time to start your preparations.... You know what to do, you have been through it before! Just don't wait for the last moment. -Gert
This is my 24th year of doing this! I started in 1996, 2 years before Google started, and when 'blogging' was not even a word. Maybe for its 25th anniversary I will change the look of this website and give it more 'modern' feel :-). Making the website ready for a new year involves moving a lot of files around, updating some scripts that download/process images, advisories, and making sure that my special tools will keep working. Hopefully I didn't break anything :-). In any case, welcome again to a new season. Hope that it will be a boring one! Also, don't forget that in order for me to keep the website running I am dependent on donations from you... -Gert
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 18:23PM EDT
- New Season
The big question mark is as usually if El Nino conditions occur this Summer, which suppresses hurricane formation and strengthening. Right now we are in an El Nino, and although models are all over the place, most predict that the El Nino will still be there later this year. Good for us! Also, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are a bit below normal, which is good as well.
They also issued an Excel spreadsheet with landfall probabilities for the Caribbean and Central America region. Below is the top 7 of the chance that at least one tropical storm (TS), hurricane (H) or major hurricane (MH) will track within 50 miles. I sorted the list by hurricane.
Region TS H MH Bahamas, The 68% 41% 22% Cuba 66% 40% 20% Mexico 74% 40% 14% Dominican Republic 40% 24% 8% Haiti 35% 19% 9% Antigua and Barbuda 32% 19% 7% Cayman Islands 32% 19% 7%
As always, take these forecasts not too serious. They are not set in stone for sure, esp. the April forecast has modest skill. Nevertheless, it is nice to hear that it will probably be an about normal season, better than a forecast that predicts a highly active season. In any case, keep in mind that just one hurricane in your backyard will spoil your whole season! We still have to prepare as best as we can. A good time to start checking your hurricane shutters, possible flying/falling hazards around your house, emergency supplies, etc., is now. -Gert
Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (email@example.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.
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