Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (07:40 UTC, 30 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Tuesday, September 22, 2020 11:26AM PDT - Congratulations

First, on behalf of the whole Caribbean Hurricane Network team, congratulations SuperDave and Melody on your wedding! We wish you a happy and fun life together, without any big storms!

In spite of 3 active storms, indeed, as Dave wrote yesterday, things are quiet for us! Bermuda did well when Teddy passed by, Paulette (Bermuda's visitor from last week) reappeared south of the Azores is weakening right now. However, Beta is still drenching the Gulf Coast and Teddy is on its way to Nova Scotia where it will according to the advisories bring 'destructive waves, heavy rain and strong winds'. Hopefully this was 'it' for the season! -Gert

Monday, September 21, 2020 09:52AM EDT - Slowing down a bit?

Good morning all!

The top story this morning is I got married to the most beautiful woman, the love of my life, Melody Beers on Saturday in South Waverly village, Sayre Pa. Thats why I've been MIA the last few days and Gert has posted regularly to keep you informed. Thank you Gert!! Now back to our regularly scheduled programming! lol

Things have quieted down from the last two weeks mayhem in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico however, there are still menacing threats in each arena. The only real quiet area is the Caribbean itself, for now.

Hurricane Teddy: Still not playing nice but up till now was only a threat to the fishes and shipping. Now on a brush by course to Bermuda, which was already blasted by Hurricane Paulette, Teddy has been producing massive waves as a Cat 2 hurricane, down from a major hurricane just a short while ago. Teddy, on its blow by will produce tropical storm conditions but will be nothing like hurricane Paulette's bashing. Most in Bermuda have provisions left and have also left their properties boarded up so Teddy's island impacts should be minimal with the exception of the shoreline beating. The US east coast will also be impacted by Teddy trek north with swells and rip current risks from Nova Scotia to Florida. Speaking of Nova Scotia, TS warnings are up for them as Teddy is still forecast to be a 45mph TS upon arrival.

TS Beta: Yes we dipped into the Greek alphabet. How far is yet to be determined. Zeta in 2005 was the farthest previously. I feel we will go a bit farther this year. Small Beta is supposed to make landfall around 1 am this morning as a weakened TS somewhere btw Port O'Connor and Galveston as a 50mph storm. Making a right turn Clyde move, Beta's main threats will be storm surge and heavy rains in Texas and Louisiana as it slogs along slowly towards its demise in Mississippi on Friday. Sadly, this will also drop drenching rains on areas devastated by Hurricane Sally.

Wilfred: Has dissipated in the MDR (Main Development Region) and is not expected to regenerate.

Post tropical cyclone Paulette: The Phoenix may arise yet as Paulette, formerly a formidable hurricane which ravaged Bermuda, has done a loop de loop and is now heading east about 10-15 mph with a 60% chance of regeneration! Time will tell with potential tracks unsure depending upon its potential resurrection.

Tropical waves are still dropping off the coast of Africa and the way this year has been all around, be prepared for more activity as we head into October and November.

Be safe all and stay prepared!

Dave

Sunday, September 20, 2020 14:22PM PDT - Finally going north!

It is great to have these excellent forecast models, otherwise we would have seen the monster storm Teddy going straight for Bermuda. And it was until just recently. After doing another little wobble to the west it is finally turning north. I know, the models told us so, but still, I have to actually see it before I believe it!

Teddy has weakened to a Category 2 storm, packing 105 mph winds, because it is following Paulette's path from last week, which has cooled the ocean. It doesn't look as scary any more as yesterday, however, it is a large storm. Even though the closest point of approach with Bermuda is about 110 miles, the island will still feel tropical storm winds, starting later tonight.

Elsewhere... Wilfred is doing what it is supposed to be doing... now barely a tropical depression. On the other hand Beta is still threatening the Gulf Coast. This slow moving storm is expected to dump a foot or more locally in Texas and Louisiana. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Saturday, September 19, 2020 13:19PM PDT - Teddy <--> Bermuda

There are currently four storms. Yesterday being a unbelievable day with three storms being named and thereby running out of names! Teddy is now a Category 3 storm. It is a formidable storm, as can be seen from the picture below, showing the closest point of approach with Bermuda. The CPA has increased again to 170 miles and will be reached Monday around 6AM. Although hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles, tropical storm force extend outward up to 230 miles, so right now well within the 170 miles of the closest point of approach with Bermuda. The windfield also should increase more on Sunday, so Bermuda should expect tropical storm force winds for sure. They had Paulette just last week (it feels a lot longer ago), with the eye moving over the island. This one should stay further away. But still, be prepared! 13:45PM update: after writing this, a new advisory came out. Teddy's eye did a little jog to the west (=closer to Bermuda). The CPA is now 140 miles...

Other storms... the forecast track of Wilfred has changed, and it is now heading towards the islands after all. However, it should fall apart and become 'just' a wave about 800 miles before it even gets there. Beta is still in the Gulf, it is only 'moving' at 2 mph, so will produce dangerous storm surge and a lot of rain. Alpha is falling apart over Portugal. And finally, not listed above, the low that was Paulette, might become Paulette again! It is currently south of the Azores and moving east (so not towards us). It has a medium chance of becoming a tropical storm again. Not sure how they are going to name the advisories for it, since the advisory storm number (2) is currently taken by Beta (the NHC rotates the advisory numbers over 5 storms, for example the public advisory is named WTNT32, where the '2' denotes the storm number, and only the numbers 1-5 are used). Not my worry, they will figure it out. OK, stay safe everyone! -Gert

- - - Closest Point of Approach of Teddy with Bermuda - - -

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