2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
|| Arthur | Bertha | Cristobal | Dolly | Edouard | Fay | Gonzalo | Hanna | Isaias | Josephine | Kyle | Laura | Marco | Nana | Omar | Paulette | Rene | Sally | Teddy | Vicky | Wilfred | Alpha | Beta | Gamma | Delta ||
Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Beta, Tropical Storm Wilfred, Post-tropical Cyclone Alpha, Hurricane Teddy
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (05:30 UTC, 25 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)
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. Thank you so much! -Gert
Friday, September 18, 2020 09:38AM PDT - Last one...
- Today we ran out of storm names, second time ever. Unfortunately this doesn't mean that nature thinks it is enough as well for this season. Now we are going to dip into the Greek alphabet, which might be later today... [actually as I write this, Alpha was just announced]
First our biggest threat, Teddy, now a Category Four Hurricane! It is still heading straight towards Bermuda. However, a turn is still expected before reaching The Rock. The forecasted track has trended a bit to the east again, with the closest point of approach now at 130 miles (yesterday it was 75 miles) early Monday. Indeed, looking at the European and American ensemble model output (see below, adapted from weathernerds.org), we can at least now see the little speck that is Bermuda outside the different model run tracks. However, the storm is still 2+ days away, so things can still change,it is still too close for comfort. Better be prepared than sorry when dealing with a major hurricane! Also, Teddy is producing large swells that can reach the islands. So it might be a good time to go boogie boarding, but be careful!
Elsewhere, the tropical wave we were following (98L) is now Wilfred, the last name on the official list. It still should move north of the islands, and even if it doesn't it looks like it will have weakened into a tropical wave before it even gets here.
Then we have Tropical Depression Twenty-Two in the Gulf of Mexico. That might become a hurricane, but the biggest threat will be the rain. It is a very slow mover, especially later in the forecast when it moves along the coast of Texas... Expect widespread flooding again...
Finally, about 3500 miles away we have Subtropical Storm Alpha, off the coast of Portugal (yes, that country in Europe!). It is expected to be short lived Looking at the storm tracks in my climatology-section, it seems not to be the first time that Portugal gets hit, but it is a rare occasion. Stay safe everybody! (and sssshhhhhtttt, tomorrow is going to be a special day for a special person). -Gert
Thursday, September 17, 2020 09:54AM PDT - Teddy-Bermuda
- Ugh, that satellite picture above looks scary! Teddy is now a major Category 3 hurricane, packing 120 mph winds. It is expected to further strengthen... And right now it is moving straight towards Bermuda. However, a weather system coming off the United States in a few days should curve Teddy more to the north. The timing of that turn is crucial for Bermuda. Right now both the European ECMWF and American GFS model predict that Teddy will pass just east of Bermuda. See image below adapted from weathernerds.org, with the pink arrow pointing to the little speck that is "The Rock". Indeed, the closest point of approach is now 75 miles to the east on Monday (see below). Hope the trend continues driving Teddy more to the east... Regardless, people on Bermuda should get prepared for another hit, this one will be stronger than Paulette, but hopefully further away...
Elsewhere, Sally is still drenching the US but is rapidly weakening. Invest 98L looks to follow Teddy's path, so moving nicely north of the islands (hopefully not again towards Bermuda!). Stay safe everybody! -Gert
Wednesday, September 16, 2020 10:20AM EDT
- Sally and others
It's a busy morning again so let's get to it.
Hurricane Sally: Landfalling as I write. The northern eyewall has made landfall around Mobile Bay while Gulf Shores AL will become the official landfall. Gulf Shores and Pensacola FL are feeling the brunt of the eastern side with up to 30 inches of rain falling already with more to come while a dangerous storm surge still has a way to go, 5.5 ft in Pensacola so far. Hurricane force winds are already spreading inland. With 90 mph sustained winds gusting to 110 mph, Sally is expected to weaken rapidly while her forward motion is not so much at 3 mph. It means a prolonged pounding wind wise and rain wise and this will be, in the end, a catastrophicÂand historic event weather wise. She arrived as a strong Cat 2 and is now a strong Cat 1. Those who did not evacuate have made many distress calls but conditions are too dangerous for first responders. In their defense, which I usually do not defend people who do not evacuate when told to, this storm shifted east pretty quickly so close to the coastline that they really didn't have time to evacuate. Mother Nature threw a curve ballÂstarting towards southern LA and even potentially farther west, then curved in over the plate of Alabama instead. Sally will remain dangerous for the next few days. All that rain that falls to the north has to go somewhere. The surge and southerly winds are not allowing the rains that have already fell to drain into the sea so flooding will be a longer lasting damaging issue.
Hurricane Teddy: Looking ominous off to the east of the Antilles and Caribbean, Teddy is expected to become a beast of a bear; not the fluffy cuddly kind we are used to with a name like Teddy. Teddy is going to grow up rapidly and a Category 4 monster is expected within the next 36-48 hours due to low wind shear, no dust interference, and warm SST's. Fortunately, it should avoid the islands of the Antilles but due to a westward shift in the track courtesy of a stronger high pressure steering current, Bermuda, once again may be in the bullseye after being beat up by hurricane Paulette. Colder waters and increasing wind shear should knock Teddy down to a Cat 2 or Cat 1 by that time but still, 2 in a row.
Hurricane Paulette: After ravaging Bermuda, Paulette is now transitioning to a strong extra tropical storm with still potent 100 mph winds but a threat now to only the fish and shipping lanes. Even by Monday she is expected to still be at tropical storm force but no further threats expected.
TS Vicky: Located NW of the Cabo Varde Islands, packing 50 mph winds, she is affecting only the fish and shipping while expected to become a remnant low by or on Friday.Â
99L: Located a few hundred miles to the NE of the Azores, a non tropical system has a 20% of acquiringÂat least subtropical characteristics while moving south and east. No threat at this time nor projected to be.Â
There is an area of interest not assigned a number yet in the SW Gulf of Mexico that has an opportunityÂto become at least a TD during the next few days. Regardless, heavy rains will affect the Mexican coast.
98L: The one we in the Caribbean should be wary of for now. Moving west at 10-15 mph, conditions look good ahead for the formation of a tropical depression and with the strong steering high pressure system to the north, lack of dust and warm SST's this could be a problem in the Caribbean in 7-10 days. Time will tell.
Stay safe and prepared!!
... Older discussions >>
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane
Teddy, located over the central Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm
Wilfred, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The National
Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Alpha, which
became post-tropical over northern Portugal.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is moving southward and is now
located just south of the western Azores. The cyclone is forecast to
continue southward for the next day or two and then stall over
marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores. The
cyclone could subsequently develop tropical or subtropical
characteristics by early next week while it moves little. For more
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
A tropical wave is located near the west coast of Africa and will
move westward over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few
days. Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image|
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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Dominica [Sep 19 1:13]
- St.Croix [Sep 18 23:26]
- Grenada [Sep 18 19:11]
- Barbados [Sep 18 19:03]
- St.Thomas [Sep 18 19:00]
- Antigua [Sep 16 15:50]
- Bermuda [Sep 15 21:36]
- Montserrat [Sep 15 19:40]
- Nevis [Sep 14 23:45]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Sep 14 13:07]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Sep 14 11:47]
- Florida Keys [Sep 12 17:51]
- Belize [Sep 2 21:58]
- Jamaica [Sep 2 13:05]
- St.Lucia [Aug 30 14:19]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 26 13:42]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 25 2:39]
- Haiti [Aug 24 11:43]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 23 18:28]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 23 12:45]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 22 15:42]
- St.John [Aug 22 14:46]
- Bahamas [Aug 3 19:26]
- Bonaire [Jul 31 18:49]
- Anguilla [Jul 29 12:15]
- Martinique [Jul 29 11:53]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide
Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x