Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alberto | Beryl | Chris | Debby | Ernesto | Florence | Gordon | Helene | Isaac | Joyce | Kirk | Leslie | Michael | Nadine | Oscar | Patty | Rafael | Sara | Tony | Valerie | William |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (11:30 UTC, 26 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].

94L Invest:

Wednesday, October 10, 2018 10:28AM PDT - Michael
The eyewall just came ashore between St. Vincent Island and Panama City. This is a strong Category 4 hurricane, maximum sustained winds 155 mph, minimum central pressure 919 mb. It is the first Category 4 storm to strike the Florida Panhandle (since records began in 1851). The central pressure is lower than Andrew's at landfall and only third lowest on record to make landfall in the US. The other two were the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Camille in 1969. The picture below (adapted from NOAA's GOES-East Image Viewer) speaks for itself. I am keeping an archive of full resolution images here. -Gert

- - - Michael making landfall - - -

Tuesday, October 9, 2018 20:22PM PDT - Michael
This is a post for the US Gulf Coast. Michael is now a strong Category 3 hurricane packing 125 mph. It is expected to strengthen even more, and is expected to be a Category 4 hurricane at landfall. The Closest Point of Approach for Panama City, Fl is only 20 miles. The eye of the storm is expected to be there in 19 hours. Tropical storm force winds will arrive a lot sooner! This is a big storm, see images below where I show the same track with CPA relative to Panama City, with and without the satellite overlay. Again, the storm surge will be catastrophic, esp. to the right/east of the track. If the local authorities tell you to evacuate then do it! You cannot defend yourself against a 10+ feet storm surge! -Gert

- - - Michael relative to Panama City, FL - - -

- - - Michael relative to Panama City, FL - - -

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system located near the northwestern
coast of Honduras continues to produce a large area of cloudiness
and thunderstorms over portions of the far western Caribbean Sea and
much of Central America. Although this system could still become a
tropical depression before it moves inland over southern Belize by
early afternoon, any further development is unlikely due to land
interaction. Once the low moves inland, rapid weakening is expected.
Regardless of development, strong gusty winds are possible over
portions of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula today before
diminishing by this evening. In addition, locally heavy rainfall,
which could cause flash flooding, is possible across portions of
Central America during the next few days.  The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission that was scheduled for this
afternoon has been canceled due the disturbance's proximity to land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Grenada [Oct 16 7:48]
- St.Thomas [Oct 16 7:17]
- St.Croix [Oct 15 20:53]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Oct 15 7:37]
- Curaçao [Oct 14 15:19]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Oct 13 17:06]
- Anguilla [Oct 13 16:56]
- Barbados [Oct 11 23:24]
- Nevis [Oct 11 21:00]
- St.Lucia [Oct 8 19:24]
- Belize [Oct 7 10:21]
- Dominica [Sep 28 21:04]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Sep 28 10:39]
- Martinique [Sep 28 8:38]
- Antigua [Sep 26 7:51]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 19 20:53]
- Dominican Republic [Sep 16 23:25]
- Montserrat [Sep 12 21:52]
- Haiti [Sep 7 7:44]
- Bermuda [Sep 6 9:42]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 28 12:19]
- Bonaire [Aug 17 5:51]
- Puerto Rico [Jul 9 15:00]
- St.John [Jul 9 9:45]
- Guadeloupe [Jul 9 7:08]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Jun 21 14:17]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert