Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: Hurricane Ian
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (22:50 UTC, 18 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

TCUAT4
 
Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
700 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...7 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent observations 
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

During the last hour, the Key West International Airport reported a 
sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph (114 
km/h). 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 83.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky

Monday, September 26, 2022 13:12PM EDT - Ian and the 3 Ex's

Good afternoon, time for a lunchtime update.

After a huge burst of tropical activity which saw Hurricane Fiona whose name should be retired after the death, damage and destruction she caused from Guadeloupe all the way north through Atlantic Canada even affecting Greenland, TS Gaston, a survivor of sorts, and TS Hermine, a rare short lived bird to say the least due to her rarer appearance so close and north to the west coast of Africa, there now remain only two. The above are now Ex's while 99L survives and Hurricane Ian is thriving and driving.

99L is still meandering in the central Atlantic, should reach TS named status and might even become a minimal short lived hurricane while remaining a wanderer with no land mass to menace. Most bets say Julia, the next name on the list, will be a fish storm of mid to strong TS status moving mostly northeast and fizzling out over the open waters.

Unfortunately, there is no fizzling expected of Ian anytime soon and while he's driving towards the western tip of Cuba, he is thriving quite nicely in the bath waters west of the Caymans which to this point is "weathering" Cat 1 Ian handily. Some dry slotted air has been ingested by Ian into his central core unexpectedly which is slowing that thriving but that appears now to be close to walled off so it's on for more rapid intensification. High surf generating rip currents and coastal flooding/surge will propagate to the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras and Belize and eventually the Florida coastline and Keys. Crashing into Cuba's hilly, not mountainous western end, which Ian will not loiter over for very long as a probable Cat 3, he will then start to menace the western coast of Florida having already started his shenanigans with the Florida Keys. Due to the girth of this system, beginning effects will be felt in the Keys and SW Florida tomorrow morning with tropical storm force winds stretching out 115 miles while being on the "dirty" side of the storm.

From then on, uncertainty remains as to where the direct impact will take place but most takes are between the Anclote River and Englewood at this moment. This is not cut in stone as wobbles east, north and west will occur since no storm goes in a direct straight line for extended times. A little wobble east means worse conditions while west would lessen. Regardless this is going to be a surge of massive proportions if 15-20 ft of water are pushed up into Tampa Bay and the others along the coast. Even McDill AFB could be affected by flooding. This is just at the coastline. Heavy rain and flooding is lurking for the central and northern regions of the state until he pulls away.

Clarity will manifest itself in regards to landfall and potential impacts after Ian's interaction with Cuba but for now, the west coast of Florida, especially the central part, should be thinking evacuations from the coastal areas and flood zones. Ian is large, who will affect most of the peninsula, in charge, and bound to make a destructive statement, not only wind wise, but also for flooding and rainfall. There's a slight chance too that the trough actually misses Ian's bus stop leaving him to stall a few days at Disney while dumping 20+ inches of heavy rainfall. Slight but possible.

Georgia, the Carolinas and all up the east coast should feel his remnants down the road but that's for another future discussion. Hopefully he jogs a bit more west and his proximity to the coast will somewhat lessen his destructive drive but right now, that's not promising.

Stay safe and prepared! Evacuate voluntarily while you can and definitely if mandatorily issued. Don't put yourselves and first responders lives in danger by being selfish and/or stubborn. Mother Nature says Yes, it can happen to you.

Dave.

Friday, September 23, 2022 20:55PM EDT - Ruh Roh! The Dreaded "I"

Good evening,

This is much later than I wanted to post but I had to make some preliminary hurricane preparations on the domestic front. Instead of preparing for a US Virgin Islands storm, I'm planning on a Florida not so sunny visit next Tues/Wednesday. At least I have no towel brigade to deploy for this one as no leaks in the premises here. Thank you to my neighbors for their help as well.

First, Fiona, still rampaging across the Atlantic, on a potentially historic damaging visit to Atlantic Canada aka Labrador, Newfoundland and Nova Scotia. Having reemerged as a Cat 4 briefly north of Bermuda and now trucking along at 46 mph as a Cat 3, Fiona will slow down and pack a monstrous punch as a Cat 2 or more probable Cat 1 with huge waves, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. The amount of water she will be pushing is enormous. Surely, Fiona looks to join the retired name list after her, at the end of the day, several weeks long shenanigans. Bermuda was very lucky by the way as she made an unexpected long hard right just north of the island. If that had been 1/2 day before, Cat 4 would have been up close and too personal.

TS Gaston has also done something unexpected as in visiting the western and central Azores, something he was supposed to avoid and turn NW beforehand. After this unwelcome deviance from what was expected, Gaston will head back west and get torn apart in about a day and a half. Supposedly. I guess Gaston can no longer be thought of as a "fish storm".

99L is still hanging out in the mid central MDR and expected to truck to the NW potentially reaching named status and appears to be a true fish storm in the end. This season has not been normal so we shall see what the end result will be with this system.

The disturbance between the African coast and the Cabo Verde islands has beaten former 98L to the name game and taken Hermine for its own. A strong rain threat to the Canary Islands, Hermine will not live long but will be known as the usurper who took the H before the dreaded I. My personal "I" was Irma in the USVI, 2017. No "I" storm compares in my book/experience.

Now the "I" is the most retired letter of all named storms since 1953 with 11. The last nine are since 2001. Our next one is Ian and I believe he might join that list. Still TD#9, soon to be Ians center is still lagging behind the ball of convection ahead of it due to wind shear from hurricane Fiona way up in the North Atlantic but that is expected to be left behind as Fiona continues to pull away and TD#9 trucks WNW then W. Once the shear lessens and this system hits ultra warm bathwater in the central/western Caribbean, rapid intensification is not just expected, its explicitly expected by the NHC. Explicitly is rarely used and shows the confidence in the models plus the lessons learned over the last decade or 2. This bodes evil going forward. Jamaica is first up with the south and western ends expected to get the worst of a rapidly strengthening tropical storm. The Cayman Islands will then feel a strengthening Cat 1-2 hurricane with the Isle of Man and the flat western end of Cuba next. I mention flat as there are no mountains there to tamp down future Ians wrath. Entering the Gulf of Mexico as a probable still Cat 2 visiting closely Key West, further bathwater and low shear should enhance Ian's structure into a formidable Cat 3 approaching Florida's west coast.

Too soon to tell exactly where US landfall occurs and where is the big question at the moment. Keys to the Panhandle should be on alert. It all depends on the high pressure over the gulf moving westward and the trough coming down from the north as to where potential Ian will curve. He might even jog further west in the Caribbean before turning. Lots of variables are still in play and nothing is certain so preparations and diligence should be in play regardless of the path and the cone is not always the true path.

Up the road another landfall is possible as some models are long casting through NC and due north after that. Time will tell for sure as that's far out for now.

Stay safe and prepared. This might be a rough ride, more expected than Fiona's and potentially more deadly and dangerous once said and done.

Dave.

Wednesday, September 21, 2022 12:39PM EDT - Menacing September

Good afternoon for the lunch update,

The current Diva" of the tropics, Cat 4 Hurricane Fiona, is muddling along at a paltry 8 mph clip northward, on a date to pass by Bermuda late Thursday into Friday, pick up some good forward speed and slam into Atlantic Canada as a historically ferocious, non winter and transitioned, non tropical monster.

Likely to retain her Cat 4 status for the next say 60 hours, eyewall replacement cycles will probably inhibit her attempts at a short lived Cat 5 life plus some wind shear is still pestering her all along her path until the trough picks her up. Her effects on Bermuda will be some tropical storm force winds, high seas and surf, coastal erosion, sporadic loss of power and isolated flooding from storm surge and those rough seas. This is contingent of Fiona following directions and staying the course. Any wobble to the east upon approach to Bermuda will antagonize these effects higher. Her effect on the east coast of the US will be rough surf and seas plus an increase in deadly rip current risk. Her effects on Atlantic Canada could be of historic damaging proportions.

Fiona is also having an effect on another system far down by Trinidad/Tobago in the southern Windward Islands but second up, we have TS Gaston, a current ship and fish storm moving to the NE at 16 mph with 65 mph winds. A small, compact storm, he might make minimal hurricane status but that will be short lived at best. Expected to keep more east then do a left turn Clyde, Gaston will remain in the open Northern Atlantic and pose no land threat. The western Azores could see high surf and rougher seas around but that should be the extent of it.

Now, Fiona's far reaching effect on 98L is in the form of northerly wind shear from her outflow. This is helping to keep 98L from getting anything going more rapidly and stronger although the low level circulation seems to be thriving. Winds are estimated at 35 mph but a closed circulation has not been verified as of yet. Heavy rainfall, rough seas and gusty, squally winds are already taking place and while not looking pretty on satellite at this time, it is expected to consolidate soon and become a TD then a TS shortly thereafter. Hurricane Hunters are expected to fly into 98L with an early evening mission and then another early tomorrow morning. Fiona's outflow will have dissipated and will no longer be a threat to 98L and this should allow TD status to be achieved. So, will 98L become Hermine or will one of the 2 waves behind it make it to Hermine first, thus making 98L the potential "I" name, the most disastrous and feared letter in hurricane name history? It will be Ian if so.

While too early to tell after 5 days where 98L and it's future namesake will go, although all points to a panhandle/west coast of Florida landfall (Tampa shield watch out), the next five days will be a slow developing system to TS status through a historical graveyard of the tropics on the way to visiting Jamaica, the Caymans, Cuba, and maybe the Yucatan before making a recurve to a potential tropical bomb in the Gulf of Mexico. Yes, it is very possible. What will slow 98L right now is recovery from Fiona's outflow, and it's continued close interaction with the South American coast which will have an effect on it's future track as well, more south and west. We shall see but this has bad potential juju once past 70W.

WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands is the next low riding contender dealing with some dry air but overall expected to slowly develop as well while moving WNW then shoved west by the dominant high in the Atlantic. Another one to watch warily. This one will probably make 99L first but if not, the one splashing down off the coast of Africa tomorrow at some point will. That one will be only a pain to the Cabo Verde Islands and Western Africa in an area few develop anything due to the pervasive saharan dust flow.

So, Fiona will still cause havoc on her way poleward, Gaston will continue to catch fish, and 98L, even in it's infancy, is drawing widespread attention already and the potential havoc and devastation it could cause. A literal reign of terror amok in the Gulf. Let's pray this or any other terror from 98L does not manifest itself. Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico, the DR and the Turks/Caicos, we have seen enough already.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

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