Caribbean Hurricane Network

- Updates from the Islands -

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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alberto | Beryl | Chris | Debby | Ernesto | Florence | Gordon | Helene | Isaac | Joyce | Kirk | Leslie | Michael | Nadine | Oscar | Patty | Rafael | Sara | Tony | Valerie | William |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (22:15 UTC, 26 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].

Thursday, June 21, 2018 10:28AM PDT - Another server upgrade
There will be another server upgrade for the website. There is expected minimal downtime (5-10 min.). So if the website seems down, that's why. The new servers should be able to handle the peaks in web traffic fine. -Gert

Tuesday, June 12, 2018 10:25AM PDT - Sargassum
No hurricane news, but I saw this interesting article in Science on the Sargassum that is washing up on some of the beaches in the islands since 2011. A lot of research has been done on this new phenomena. I always thought that the Sargassum came from the Sargasso Sea, a gyre (a large basin-size circulating current) between the Caribbean/North Atlantic Equatorial current and Bermuda. But apparently it is coming from the south and is possibly a different species with wider 'leaves' Researchers from U. Southern Mississippi traced the Sargassum mats all the way back to the east of Brazil. They report 3 generic pathways for Sargassum to float into separate regions of the Caribbean (see this article).

Researchers from U. South Florida publish monthly outlooks based on satellite data. The latest outlook unfortunately shows that this year might be a bad one, with a high chance that the Sargassum will be polluting some beaches through August. It might actually be a worse year than 2015, the worst so far. Unfortunately there is not that much that can be done about it. It is very labor intensive to clean it up, and then what to do with it? There is some good news, a company in Guadeloupe has developed a system that can remove large quantities of Sargassum out of the water using a conveyor belt that dips below the surface. Apparently the 'Sargator' can collect up to 10 tons of Sargassum before it reaches the beaches (see this article). -Gert

Thursday, May 31, 2018 09:56AM PDT - Forecast lowered
Tomorrow is the official start of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Are you ready? Let's hope it won't be as disastrous as 2017! On a good note, the forecasters at Colorado State have just lowered their forecast a bit from their April 5 one. Now they expect 13 named storms (was 14, 12 is 'normal'), 6 hurricanes (was 6, 6.5 is normal) and 2 major hurricanes (was 3, 2 is normal). The probability of at least one major hurricane tracking through the whole Caribbean region (a big area) is 41%, which is about average. Although it doesn't look like an El Nino will be forming this Summer (lowering activity), they base the lower estimate mainly on the current cooler sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. Read more on their website.

But as always, it only takes one big one to spoil your season! Be prepared as best as you can. Check your hurricane shutters and see what you can improve about your house's structure to better withstand high winds and torrential rains... -Gert

Tuesday, May 29, 2018 11:15AM PDT - Puerto Rico Death Toll
A Harvard study came out in the New England Journal of Medicine that estimates the number of people that died because of Hurricame Maria at about 4,600! That is far higher than the official number of 64. It is very sad how Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are mostly ignored by the United States, esp. if you compare how the US dealt with Houston vs. Puerto Rico. There are still people without power and running water on the island... Very frustrating! More info in this New York Times article. -Gert

June 1 update: Maybe some clarification needed... The researchers did not estimate the number of deaths at about 4600. The 95% confidence interval is 793-8498 casualties. 4,645 (a much reported number) is the average of those two extremes. Other studies have estimated the death toll at about 1,000. Read more in this Washington Post article.

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Jun 21 21:46]
- St.Thomas [Jun 21 19:34]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Jun 21 14:17]
- Nevis [Jun 19 13:58]
- Grenada [Jun 18 13:55]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jun 18 3:17]
- St.John [Jun 16 13:26]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jun 12 8:15]
- Dominican Republic [Jun 10 23:25]
- St.Lucia [Jun 3 21:19]
- Dominica [Jun 1 14:55]
- Cayman Islands [May 28 14:20]
- Haiti [May 28 10:10]
- Antigua [May 27 6:33]
- Anguilla [May 18 14:19]
- Martinique [Apr 17 5:50]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert