2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
|| Andrea | Barry | Chantal | Dorian | Erin | Fernand | Gabrielle | Humberto | Imelda | Jerry | Karen | Lorenzo | Melissa | Nestor | Olga | Pablo | Rebekah | Sebastien | Tanya | Van | Wendy ||
Active Tropical Systems: Post-tropical Cyclone Humberto, Hurricane Jerry
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (17:50 UTC, 19 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)
Thursday, September 19, 2019 19:02PM EDT
- The next few weeks +
While most of this year has sped along, the month of September has been dragging it seems as it's only September 19th. The tropical activity has been everywhere and looks to continue for the present and the immediate future to come.
Last thoughts on Imelda: In SE Texas, according to Chicken Little, the sky is falling, literally. Unconfirmed reports of up to 43 inches of rain has already fallen, the airport is inaccessible, tornadic activity is probable,Âflooding is rampant and now it's "rush hour" with people driving in the flood waters, and it looks on satellite and radar that a piece of the remnants of Imelda has broken off and is trying to get back out over the GOM. This isn't going away soon. Days ago, Imelda was almost a rainmaking afterthought and now, her name might even be retired and she wasn't even a name a whole day. So far one death has sadly been reported by electrocution. She is definitely taking it to the streets.
Last thoughts on Humberto: More damage than originally imagined was experienced by Bermuda with about 80% of the island without power but no injuries or fatalities at this point. See the Bermuda post to the right, click it and open the pictures sent. Humberto has a date with Europe so goodbye. More on Bermuda in a moment.
Hurricane Jerry has now made Cat 1 status but is reaching for more as strengthening appears to be continuing but with a short window. I believe he is a Cat 2 already. Hurricane Hunters have a flight scheduled later tonight and will have the details in the morning. More symmetrical now, Jerry's hurricane force winds stretch 25 miles outward and TS force winds stretch out about 80 miles. The center is currently located about 450 miles to the east of St. Eustatius, Jerry is moving about 17 mph to the WNW and is expected to continue this track with a slightly slower forward speed ahead. This bodes well for all the Leeward Islands meaning no land falling Jerry.ÂNevertheless, rough surf, rip tides, gusty winds, and squally rains will prevail especially in Antigua and Anguilla who will probably feel some TS force winds at some point.
I must state the obvious: This track, while well forecast and depicted by the models and forecasters, is not 100% stone. A few hours deviation to the west or even SW could change things dramatically, not only for the northern Leeward Islands, but down the road, the Bahamas since re curvature has been forecast to occur well before reaching them. Another possibility, albeit quite remote, is Jerry strengthens quicker and stronger, misses the re curve and goes GOM. While remote, the possibility is there. Bermuda, as you clean up after Humberto, keep a wary eye on Jerry.
Several others continue to be in the mix. The system that is just south of the DR and Haiti will continue to dump copious amounts of rain while moving generally to the WNW. Chances of development are minimal due to interaction with land and wind shear but flooding is a definite possibility.
Along 43W, we have a wave that should show some signs of development over the next few days but might just be aÂstrong wave or a TD as it arrives in theÂWindward Islands giving Barbados a two cheek kiss as it passes by.
The next two waves that will come off the African coast will bear some interest as conditions by then should improve on the development scale, not that they are bad now by any means. Until the end of October, really, anything that comes off AfricaÂbears watching.
That's it for this moment in time. Let's hopeÂthe remnants of Imelda stop trying to drown SE Texas, Jerry doesn't hit the Leeward islands and re curves without hitting anyone including Bermuda, and the rest of the waves stay just that: waves. Is that too much to ask for? Probably but we hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
Be safe, vigilant and prepared.
Thursday, September 19, 2019 08:00AM EDT
- Threats everywhere
Active continues to be the main adjective at this time with the Eastern Pacific getting in on the action along with our imposing Atlantic lineup. With more waves crossing Africa, as is customary at this time of year, active will continue to be ongoing.
Humberto the Humongous: Now this Cat 3Âis a huge system which has affected Bermuda as it raced by overnight. With hurricane force winds out to 90 miles and TS storm force winds stretching out an astounding 405 miles, it remains to be seen what damage was inflicted on this well prepared island nation. Fortunately, Humberto passed well off to the north and was spared the hurricane force winds but even TS storm force winds can and probably did inflict some damage. Hopefully all is as well as it can be there with no loss of life.
TS Jerry: Menacing the Eastern Caribbean, Jerry looks a bit ragged this morning but has continued to strengthen and reach hurricane status soon. Located about 525 miles from the northern Leeward Islands, this intensity should be held in check by rising wind shear allowing dry air intrusion thus not allowing Jerry to strengthen even though over more than warm enough waters. TS warnings are up for most of the northern Leewards and I expect hurricane watches to be posted once he is upgraded.
Jerry is not expected to make landfall in the Caribbean according to the models and forecasters who are in really good agreeance. Any deviation south or large wobble however, brings the possibility it would. While this right now is highly doubtful, until it passes, the chance remains so vigilance and preparation need to continue to be followed. Use the tools available to you under the map to get an idea of the closest point of approach to your position. This gives a great picture of, if Jerry continues on this path and speed, where he will be closest to you and how far away. Once past the Leewards, Jerry is expected to make a hard right turn and miss the Bahamas, who do not need any more storms, and menace Bermuda around Tuesday night into Wednesday on a more southerly track then Humberto. Lets hope Jerry turns on cue, misses the Bahamas, and flies under the Bermudian radar south.
What was short lived TS Imelda is dropping almost Harveyesque like rains on SE Texas and flooding continues as does the slow moving rain asÂa tropical system of this sort classically does.
We do have a few more waves out there. One, just to the SE of the Dominican Republic has waxed and waned and has limited potential due to the upper level winds but is expected to produce copious amounts of rain over the DR and Haiti. The other, about 1000 miles to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands does have potential down the road. Current thought is it will trek almost straight across and enter the Windward Islands as a TD or weak TS. AÂstrong ridge might develop a weakness several days from now which would allow this wave to gravitate NW, graze the northern Leewards and go out to see. Too early to tell though and per usual at this time of year, everything needs to be watched!
That's it for now. I'll have an up date sometimeÂlater today or tonight. Be safe and prepared!
Wednesday, September 18, 2019 15:32PM PDT - Humberto and Jerry
- Hurricane Humberto is nearing its closest point of approach with Bermuda, about 90 miles. Humberto is a major (Category 3) hurricane, packing 120 mph winds. It has some spectacular outflow to the northeast (see image below, showing Humberto's closest approach relative to Bermuda). Hurricane force winds extend about 80 miles outward from the center, which seems just out of reach of the island, however, sustained winds of 75 mph (= hurricane force) have already been reported on the island, with higher gusts. Houses on Bermuda are very well built, so they should come out ok. I still am trying to get some reports from my correspondents on the island, so hopefully we'll have some first hand reports soon.
Then we have now Tropical Storm Jerry (was Tropical Depression 10). Right now it still looks like it will pass about 100 miles to the north of the Leeward islands on Friday. By that time Jerry is expected to be a Category 1 hurricane though. It is a bit hard to forecast the intensity of this storm, although the water is plenty warm and there is light wind shear, there is very dry air around the storm. In 2 days wind shear is expected to increase, so the storm might weaken again later.
Most models are in pretty good agreement that the center of Jerry will stay north of the islands. However, a little wobble south can make a big difference. Most likely the islands will be out of range of hurricane force winds, but with tropical storm force winds extending outward about 90 mph at time of passing, it is much more likely that the islands will feel at least tropical storm force winds (39mph and up). Indeed, tropical storm watches have already been issued for St.Maarten/St.Martin, St.Barths, Saba and Statia, with Anguilla probably soon to follow. Stay tuned... -Gert
|Closest Point of Approach Relative to Bermuda|
Tuesday, September 17, 2019 18:06PM EDT
- The Terrible Threes
Good evening from Allentown Pa,
This is where I am as my girlfriend recovers from her latest burn surgery. She is doing well so that is awesome. Weather wise, here in Allentown, not a cloud in the sky, low humidity, and beautifully sunny. But we are not here to talk about Allentown. It is real pleasant though.
What is not pleasant is Bermuda is now under a hurricane warning courtesy Humberto the Humongous. From it's Hurricane force winds stick out 60 miles from the center with tropical storm force winds outwards of 175 miles. Humberto is forecast to actually reach Cat 3 status for a short lived, statistically added time. Bermuda is a well defended island from tropical systems. However, coming from the east presents a different set of issues. Regardless, they should "weather" Humberto's impacts with an experienced hand comparatively speaking.
TD 11, now very short lived TS Imelda, has pushed into Texas already with flooding already occurring around south Houston and other areas and this is expected to continue as Imelda slowly makes her way into the heart of Texas land with western Louisiana getting popped as well. A TD as of the 11am advisory, classified a TS as of a special advisory at 12:45 pm, and making landfall at 1:30 pm, Imelda made the most of a very short lifespan while traversing the GOM as a low from off the coast of Florida to the Mexican border. Most of the convection is on the east side hence the flooding raging through southern Texas and not the western portion of the system. The upgrade from TD to TS does not really affect the consequences as a 5 mph higher designation doesn't change much effects wise, only scientific designation statistical wise. This will be a bad time of flooding in the concrete city of Houston and surrounding areas.
TD 10, located about 1470 miles SE of the northern Lesser Antilles, has changed little in the way of organization today but will be entering an area very soon with higher SST's, low to moderate wind shear and a lack of significant dry air/dust. Expected to become a TS overnight tonight, soon to be Jerry will start picking up forward speed and be on the northern outskirts of the Leeward Islands by early Friday morning. Expected to keep on that NW track, Jerry should pass by with just some rains, gusty winds, rip currents, and some northern beach erosion.
More tomorrow on Humberto, Jerry and beyond. Bottom line is Humberto could make a direct hit on Bermuda and soon to be Jerry can sink just about 150 miles to the south and make a direct hit on the northern Leewards. This is models and forecasts talking with what they see is probable and possible. Margins of error exist so be vigilant as changes happen each run.Â
wind shear and lower dustÂ
Tuesday, September 17, 2019 14:16PM PDT - Three Storms
- All of a sudden we have three storms, one tropical depression, one tropical storm and a hurricane. Let's start with hurricane Humberto first, currently a Category 1, with 105 mph max. sustained winds. It has become a pretty large storm, with tropical storm winds extending outward up to 175 miles and hurricane force winds 60 miles. As it looks right now (and forecasts have been pretty consistent over the last day or so) the center will pass about 100 miles to the north of Bermuda in about a day. At that time it is expected to have strengthened into a major (Category 3) hurricane, so Bermuda might feel hurricane force winds. Most models are in pretty good agreement that it should stay north of the island, but still, it is a bit too close for comfort, so be prepared Bermuda! A hurricane warning has been issued for the Rock.
New tropical storm Imelda will be pretty short lived. It just made landfall near Freeport, Texas (not Bahamas!!!), which is near Houston. Imelda actually was upgraded to a tropical storm when it was over land, so after landfall... It will produce a lot of rainfall in the Houston area, although it is moving at about 7 mph and is not expected to stall. However, this region that does not always cope will with a lot of precipitation as we have seen in the past...
Finally, the tropical wave we have been watching for a while has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Ten. It will reach the islands in about three days. Earlier it looked like it would be nicely bending to the north, but now it looks a bit closer. However, it should still stay about 100 miles away from Anguilla for example, but in those three days time, forecasts might trend further south. But so far, squinting at the spaghetti model plots of then 'Jerry', it looks like that it should stay north of the islands. At the time it passes, this system might have strengthened into a hurricane ('just' a Category 1). So we have to keep a close eye on this one. I don't want to speculate too much on where it might go after that, but let's all just hope if will curve to the north well before it reaches the Bahamas... -Gert
... Older discussions >>
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jerry, located about a hundred miles northeast of the Leeward
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has
increased during the past 24 hours. The wave is expected to head
quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days and will
move across the Windward Islands this weekend. Some development is
possible during that time and a tropical depression could form by
early next week. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for development next week once the wave moves over the
eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti has become
a little better defined today. However, the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is still disorganized, and pressures in the
region are rising. Strong upper-level winds will likely prevent
significant development of this system while it moves slowly
west-northwestward for the next few days. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola,
Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend. These heavy rains could
cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image|
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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Thomas [Sep 20 13:18]
- Nevis [Sep 20 12:22]
- Grenada [Sep 20 9:25]
- Barbados [Sep 20 8:22]
- Dominica [Sep 20 5:29]
- St.Croix [Sep 19 23:55]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Sep 19 22:03]
- Montserrat [Sep 19 21:50]
- Antigua [Sep 19 21:04]
- Bermuda [Sep 19 20:54]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 19 9:51]
- Anguilla [Sep 19 9:38]
- Bahamas [Sep 18 20:18]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Sep 18 17:36]
- St.Lucia [Sep 18 6:17]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Sep 16 17:57]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 3 16:25]
- Martinique [Sep 3 11:08]
- Florida Keys [Sep 2 9:08]
- Belize [Sep 1 13:07]
- St.John [Aug 29 19:51]
- Culebra (PR) [Aug 29 2:22]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 28 14:59]
- Haiti [Aug 19 13:55]
- Saba [Aug 19 9:20]
- Dominican Republic [Jul 31 0:16]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Apr 3 9:00]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- ECMWF Model Forecast
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide
Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x