Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alex | Bonnie | Colin | Danielle | Earl | Fiona | Gaston | Hermine | Ian | Julia | Karl | Lisa | Martin | Nicole | Owen | Paula | Richard | Shary | Tobias | Virginie | Walter |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (16:50 UTC, 15 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Sunday, November 6, 2022 11:26AM EST - Nicole? Owen?

Good afternoon,

After a zero August, nasty Hurricane Ian in September, and evil Julia in October, November is trying to make up ground and pad the tropical system stats before the end comes. Two hurricanes at the same time in November, Lisa battering Belize and Martin, the farthest north hurricane ever in November made history. Now we have 2 more potentials to discuss. One, a fish storm 97L, east of the Bahamas will menace only the fish, shipping and eventually the UK and Europe bringing some good welcome rains to that parched continent. The other is 98L, poised to consolidate it's broadness into a potential TS down the road with the SE coast of the US in it's long range sights with a right turn Clyde possibility. The race is on to see who gets the next name, Nicole. Owen is after that.

98L, whose potential I shared at the end of my post last Tuesday, has dumped more than 5 inches of rain on the Virgin Islands between Friday and Saturday night with isolated amounts higher in Puerto Rico. Flood advisories have been up since Thursday as our grounds and PR's were already saturated. The tropical low was located earlier this morning right over the USVI on it's way northbound but had rained itself out before it's overhead arrival. Now about 130 miles to the north of Puerto Rico, it is trying to consolidate on it's way to visit the northern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas and eventually the SE coast of Florida and maybe Georgia. It will take some time for this to happen due to it's broadness and the deep dip in the jetstream will not allow rapid intensification. However, light wind shear and bathwater SST's should allow for some intensification. Just how much remains to be seen. It is possible it doesn't intensify and plows into Florida a large, wet blob of moisture, unusual for a usually dry November there. Then, on the other side of the scale, we could be looking at a mid grade TS landing anywhere along the east coast, crossing the peninsula, and then, right turning, strike the west coast, cross the peninsula again, and head up the east coast towards NE.

Either way, the northern Caribbean and SE coast of the US will be the recipients of copious amounts of rainfall, coastal erosion, bad rip currents, and gusty winds. Parts of the central Florida east coast still have major erosion from Ian's exit plus the St. Johns river, still in flood stage from Ian will rise again if this holds true. Not pretty.

It's not over till it's over! Stay safe and prepared.

Dave.

Tuesday, November 1, 2022 19:13PM EDT - Soon Hurricane Lisa

Good evening all.

A quick note as my time is limited at the moment.

Bottom line on soon to be Hurricane Lisa is she will be bashing the Bay Islands of Honduras tomorrow afternoon as a strengthening hurricane while approaching the entire coast of Belize as a probable Cat 2 with an attitude due to no wind shear and beautiful warm fueled waters. A Cat 3 at landfall is not out of the question as well. Belize City and southern cities are basically at sea level so storm surge will be monumentous flood wise however the sea walls and the world famous reef of Belize may protect them to a point. Sadly that same reef will suffer tremendous damage in doing so. Guatemala, the northern coast of Honduras, and parts of the Yucatan will experience heavy rains and possible flooding as well. Jamaica and the Caymans will experience sea swells as she speeds by. Even at 15 mph, she will still cause flash floods, land/mudslides, copious rainfall, and probable fatalities.

However, even though expected to slow down a bit, the longer time she spends over water headed into Belize without land interaction from Honduras, allows for that possibility of strengthening to Cat 2 maybe even Cat 3 minimal at landfall. Bad scenario nonetheless on an incoming, strengthening landfalling hurricane.

Once landfall is made, an opportunity, albeit small, will remain for this system to reinvent herself curving northeast into the Bay of Campeche and then from there, alive in the Gulf of Mexico, who knows. Not out of the realm of possibility but still possible. Then again, she could just die out or rejuvenate in the eastern Pacific. Too early to tell at this moment but all cards are on the table.

Sea level Belize coastline and cities, Lisa is not something to dismiss. Take heed. Evacuate to higher storm surge proof ground. The reef will protect to a point but your major coast cities are at sea level. 4-6 ft storm surge will be devastating and fatalistic. If she is incoming as a strengthening Cat 2 or more, then it will be worse for wear. But you will have hopefully evacuated.

TS Martin, newly found in the northern Atlantic all alone with no land masses to menace, is expected to reach Cat 1 hurricane status briefly before transforming into a strong extra tropical force headed to the UK and Ireland. A fish storm extraordinaire far north in 82 degree waters, Martin is making the best of what he can be short lived as he will be name wise. Headed to Europe eventually, he might have enough energy left to dump some copious rains on a parched European continent after menacing the UK.

Elsewhere, the MDR is ravaged by hostile wind shear with limited activity tropical wave wise. The possibility does exist in 5-8 days that a cut off low from the jet stream will drop down by the northern Caribbean above PR and the Virgin Islands with a copious rainfall intent for a few wandering days. Then, maybe, transforming into something tropical as it reverses course back towards the mainland. Time will tell.

Stay safe and prepared. Belize get ready.

Dave

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

$$
Forecaster Papin
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Thomas [Nov 29 6:53]
- St.Croix [Nov 28 23:16]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Nov 26 23:05]
- Dominica [Nov 11 10:07]
- Bahamas [Nov 9 21:38]
- St.Lucia [Nov 6 18:04]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Nov 6 14:47]
- Nevis [Nov 6 12:04]
- Saba [Nov 2 12:01]
- Belize [Oct 31 9:31]
- Jamaica [Oct 31 7:47]
- Barbados [Oct 28 9:07]
- Haiti [Oct 4 14:21]
- Cayman Islands [Oct 3 9:28]
- Montserrat [Sep 28 19:03]
- Florida Keys [Sep 26 20:25]
- Antigua [Sep 26 13:04]
- Curaçao [Sep 26 11:13]
- Turks & Caicos [Sep 21 5:46]
- Grenada [Sep 21 3:04]
- Bermuda [Sep 20 19:36]
- Dominican Republic [Sep 20 16:31]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 20 10:20]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 19 8:07]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Sep 17 11:41]
- Anguilla [Sep 17 8:50]
- Barbuda [Jul 10 7:46]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert