Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (16:50 UTC, 15 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Sunday, November 6, 2022 11:26AM EST - Nicole? Owen?

Good afternoon,

After a zero August, nasty Hurricane Ian in September, and evil Julia in October, November is trying to make up ground and pad the tropical system stats before the end comes. Two hurricanes at the same time in November, Lisa battering Belize and Martin, the farthest north hurricane ever in November made history. Now we have 2 more potentials to discuss. One, a fish storm 97L, east of the Bahamas will menace only the fish, shipping and eventually the UK and Europe bringing some good welcome rains to that parched continent. The other is 98L, poised to consolidate it's broadness into a potential TS down the road with the SE coast of the US in it's long range sights with a right turn Clyde possibility. The race is on to see who gets the next name, Nicole. Owen is after that.

98L, whose potential I shared at the end of my post last Tuesday, has dumped more than 5 inches of rain on the Virgin Islands between Friday and Saturday night with isolated amounts higher in Puerto Rico. Flood advisories have been up since Thursday as our grounds and PR's were already saturated. The tropical low was located earlier this morning right over the USVI on it's way northbound but had rained itself out before it's overhead arrival. Now about 130 miles to the north of Puerto Rico, it is trying to consolidate on it's way to visit the northern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas and eventually the SE coast of Florida and maybe Georgia. It will take some time for this to happen due to it's broadness and the deep dip in the jetstream will not allow rapid intensification. However, light wind shear and bathwater SST's should allow for some intensification. Just how much remains to be seen. It is possible it doesn't intensify and plows into Florida a large, wet blob of moisture, unusual for a usually dry November there. Then, on the other side of the scale, we could be looking at a mid grade TS landing anywhere along the east coast, crossing the peninsula, and then, right turning, strike the west coast, cross the peninsula again, and head up the east coast towards NE.

Either way, the northern Caribbean and SE coast of the US will be the recipients of copious amounts of rainfall, coastal erosion, bad rip currents, and gusty winds. Parts of the central Florida east coast still have major erosion from Ian's exit plus the St. Johns river, still in flood stage from Ian will rise again if this holds true. Not pretty.

It's not over till it's over! Stay safe and prepared.

Dave.

Tuesday, November 1, 2022 19:13PM EDT - Soon Hurricane Lisa

Good evening all.

A quick note as my time is limited at the moment.

Bottom line on soon to be Hurricane Lisa is she will be bashing the Bay Islands of Honduras tomorrow afternoon as a strengthening hurricane while approaching the entire coast of Belize as a probable Cat 2 with an attitude due to no wind shear and beautiful warm fueled waters. A Cat 3 at landfall is not out of the question as well. Belize City and southern cities are basically at sea level so storm surge will be monumentous flood wise however the sea walls and the world famous reef of Belize may protect them to a point. Sadly that same reef will suffer tremendous damage in doing so. Guatemala, the northern coast of Honduras, and parts of the Yucatan will experience heavy rains and possible flooding as well. Jamaica and the Caymans will experience sea swells as she speeds by. Even at 15 mph, she will still cause flash floods, land/mudslides, copious rainfall, and probable fatalities.

However, even though expected to slow down a bit, the longer time she spends over water headed into Belize without land interaction from Honduras, allows for that possibility of strengthening to Cat 2 maybe even Cat 3 minimal at landfall. Bad scenario nonetheless on an incoming, strengthening landfalling hurricane.

Once landfall is made, an opportunity, albeit small, will remain for this system to reinvent herself curving northeast into the Bay of Campeche and then from there, alive in the Gulf of Mexico, who knows. Not out of the realm of possibility but still possible. Then again, she could just die out or rejuvenate in the eastern Pacific. Too early to tell at this moment but all cards are on the table.

Sea level Belize coastline and cities, Lisa is not something to dismiss. Take heed. Evacuate to higher storm surge proof ground. The reef will protect to a point but your major coast cities are at sea level. 4-6 ft storm surge will be devastating and fatalistic. If she is incoming as a strengthening Cat 2 or more, then it will be worse for wear. But you will have hopefully evacuated.

TS Martin, newly found in the northern Atlantic all alone with no land masses to menace, is expected to reach Cat 1 hurricane status briefly before transforming into a strong extra tropical force headed to the UK and Ireland. A fish storm extraordinaire far north in 82 degree waters, Martin is making the best of what he can be short lived as he will be name wise. Headed to Europe eventually, he might have enough energy left to dump some copious rains on a parched European continent after menacing the UK.

Elsewhere, the MDR is ravaged by hostile wind shear with limited activity tropical wave wise. The possibility does exist in 5-8 days that a cut off low from the jet stream will drop down by the northern Caribbean above PR and the Virgin Islands with a copious rainfall intent for a few wandering days. Then, maybe, transforming into something tropical as it reverses course back towards the mainland. Time will tell.

Stay safe and prepared. Belize get ready.

Dave

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