Caribbean Hurricane Network

- Updates from the Islands -

| home | satellite | tools | pleas for help | guide | climatology | archive

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Arthur | Bertha | Cristobal | Dolly | Edouard | Fay | Gonzalo | Hanna | Isaias | Josephine | Kyle | Laura | Marco | Nana | Omar | Paulette | Rene | Sally | Teddy | Vicky | Wilfred | Alpha | Beta | Gamma | Delta | Epsilon | Zeta |

Active Tropical Systems: Hurricane Epsilon
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (12:10 UTC, 16 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Epsilon tools:

Tuesday, October 20, 2020 11:21AM PDT - Epsilon on the move
Tropical storm Epsilon is now moving towards Bermuda at about 12 mph. Its closest point of approach has increased to about 200 miles early Friday. That sounds like a lot but Epsilon is a relatively big storm with tropical storm winds extending outward up to 300 miles, but mostly to the north though. It is still expected to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane. So not surprisingly, Bermuda is under a tropical storm watch. I don't think it will be too bad, but we have to keep an eye on the track, things can change. -Gert

Monday, October 19, 2020 09:34AM PDT - Epsilon
The 26th (!) storm of the season formed about 720 miles southeast of Bermuda. Right now it is kind of meandering but it is expected to pick up speed soon and move northwards towards Bermuda. Epsilon is expected to pass about 110 miles to east of the island on Friday, making it number 4 this year to get close! At this time it doesn't look like it will get much stronger than a Category 1 Hurricane, but as always things can change so we'll have to keep a close eye on this one... Hopefully this is the last one, but looking at the Tropical Weather Outlook below, there is another system in the southwestern Caribbean that might develop into something. The season is indeed still not over! Next letter in the Greek Alphabet is Zeta. -Gert

Sunday, October 18, 2020 07:45AM EDT - Not over yet!

Good morning all,

Another welcomed lull in tropical action is about to end with one system, designated 94L with the most immediate potential while a tropicalÂwave movingÂthrough the Caribbean will stew later in the week but with more questions than answersÂfor now.

94L is currently about 475 nm ESE of Bermuda and really not going anywhere. Preferring to meander rather than have any sense of urgency to go anywhere in any definitive direction, 94L still has the possibility, high over the next few days, of becoming a depression or storm before finally moving off to the north. Bermuda might feel some effects down the road but no threat to any other landmass. Along the east coast, rip currents and coastal effectsÂwill be experienced but that's about it. The next name, if it does reach the threshold, will be Epsilon.

Well south of Jamaica along 79W is a westward moving wave which, for this time of the hurricane season, could well be another October story if all the ingredients come together. This will take a few days to manifest itself and if it does, projected paths will be movement to the north and northwest. Way too early to tell yet so it behooves any interests in Cuba, GOM and Florida/Bahamas to monitor closely this potential late season bloomer. October storms can be quiteÂvicious. PerfectÂexample was Hurricane Michael who was the firstÂCat 5 to make a mainland landfall since Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Michael was a 25 billion dollar storm which lasted from Oct. 7-Oct. 16, 2018 and was born in the SW Caribbean, a typical area to watch in October.

Elsewhere to the east of the islands, the wave train continues but we usually do not look for action to form until these waves get closer to the islands and the Caribbean aka "home grown storms". There are a few marching along but none catch anyone's eye yet. While the dust has finally settled over the Atlantic for the most part, wind shear and cooling SST's have tampered down that development region. That's not to say a late bloomer cannot happen though so still, monitoring is a necessity for now.

Be safe and stay prepared!!

Dave

Thursday, October 15, 2020 09:41AM PDT - Cape Verde Storms Article
An impressive article came out on BBC Future on Cape Verde hurricanes by Celia Jones. She interviewed a few of the hurricane correspondents for the piece! See it here: The unlikely birthplace of the most destructive hurricanes. -Gert

Thursday, October 15, 2020 05:27AM EDT - Epsilon and beyond?

Good morning!

As Gert shared, we have a very active yet very sheared tropical wave entering the island chain with almost all of it's convection well east of the "center". Chances of becoming a named storm in the next few days are slim but gusty winds and heavy rainfall are good probabilities the next few days. The next name is Epsilon.Â

Now, as we still have 6 weeks to go until the official end of hurricane season, the potential for more "home grown" storms grows while classic Cabo Verde born storms decreases. The NHC is watching three such areas but at the moment, they all have been given limited chances of development. Still, if the NHC is interested, we should be interested as well: our wave to our east, possibilities south of Bermuda and the ever present threat from the SW Caribbean. We also still have waves coming off the coast of Africa to pay attention to.Â

Dave







Virus-free. www.avg.com

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic a few hundred miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

- - - Do you live in the Caribbean? - - -
Join our team of special local hurricane correspondents.


   stormCARIB is brought to you by GoBeach Vacations   
- Your Accommodation Specialist for the Caribbean -


stormCARIB is hosted
at and supported by
pairNetworks

Support stormCARIB
-- Donations needed --

Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Oct 20 23:37]
- St.Thomas [Oct 20 15:26]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Oct 17 17:29]
- Anguilla [Oct 16 17:00]
- Grenada [Oct 14 8:00]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Oct 9 10:25]
- Mexico (incl. Cozumel & Cancun) [Oct 8 12:04]
- Nevis [Oct 7 20:27]
- Belize [Oct 7 11:36]
- Cayman Islands [Oct 6 15:01]
- St.Lucia [Oct 5 16:44]
- Haiti [Oct 5 11:48]
- Jamaica [Oct 5 9:43]
- Dominica [Oct 1 17:33]
- Barbados [Sep 29 8:35]
- Bermuda [Sep 22 12:21]
- Antigua [Sep 20 18:24]
- Montserrat [Sep 15 19:40]
- Florida Keys [Sep 12 17:51]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 26 13:42]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 23 18:28]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 23 12:45]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 22 15:42]
- St.John [Aug 22 14:46]
- Bahamas [Aug 3 19:26]
- Bonaire [Jul 31 18:49]
- Martinique [Jul 29 11:53]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


GoBeach Vacations
- Your source for the best Caribbean vacation you've ever had! -
www.gobeach.com | info@gobeach.com

Back to top | home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive

Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert