Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good morning!Â

It's a busy morning again so let's get to it.

Hurricane Sally: Landfalling as I write. The northern eyewall has made landfall around Mobile Bay while Gulf Shores AL will become the official landfall. Gulf Shores and Pensacola FL are feeling the brunt of the eastern side with up to 30 inches of rain falling already with more to come while a dangerous storm surge still has a way to go, 5.5 ft in Pensacola so far. Hurricane force winds are already spreading inland. With 90 mph sustained winds gusting to 110 mph, Sally is expected to weaken rapidly while her forward motion is not so much at 3 mph. It means a prolonged pounding wind wise and rain wise and this will be, in the end, a catastrophicÂand historic event weather wise. She arrived as a strong Cat 2 and is now a strong Cat 1. Those who did not evacuate have made many distress calls but conditions are too dangerous for first responders. In their defense, which I usually do not defend people who do not evacuate when told to, this storm shifted east pretty quickly so close to the coastline that they really didn't have time to evacuate. Mother Nature threw a curve ballÂstarting towards southern LA and even potentially farther west, then curved in over the plate of Alabama instead. Sally will remain dangerous for the next few days. All that rain that falls to the north has to go somewhere. The surge and southerly winds are not allowing the rains that have already fell to drain into the sea so flooding will be a longer lasting damaging issue.

Hurricane Teddy: Looking ominous off to the east of the Antilles and Caribbean, Teddy is expected to become a beast of a bear; not the fluffy cuddly kind we are used to with a name like Teddy. Teddy is going to grow up rapidly and a Category 4 monster is expected within the next 36-48 hours due to low wind shear, no dust interference, and warm SST's. Fortunately, it should avoid the islands of the Antilles but due to a westward shift in the track courtesy of a stronger high pressure steering current, Bermuda, once again may be in the bullseye after being beat up by hurricane Paulette. Colder waters and increasing wind shear should knock Teddy down to a Cat 2 or Cat 1 by that time but still, 2 in a row.

Hurricane Paulette: After ravaging Bermuda, Paulette is now transitioning to a strong extra tropical storm with still potent 100 mph winds but a threat now to only the fish and shipping lanes. Even by Monday she is expected to still be at tropical storm force but no further threats expected.

TS Vicky: Located NW of the Cabo Varde Islands, packing 50 mph winds, she is affecting only the fish and shipping while expected to become a remnant low by or on Friday.Â

99L: Located a few hundred miles to the NE of the Azores, a non tropical system has a 20% of acquiringÂat least subtropical characteristics while moving south and east. No threat at this time nor projected to be.Â

There is an area of interest not assigned a number yet in the SW Gulf of Mexico that has an opportunityÂto become at least a TD during the next few days. Regardless, heavy rains will affect the Mexican coast.

98L: The one we in the Caribbean should be wary of for now. Moving west at 10-15 mph, conditions look good ahead for the formation of a tropical depression and with the strong steering high pressure system to the north, lack of dust and warm SST's this could be a problem in the Caribbean in 7-10 days. Time will tell.

Stay safe and prepared!!

Dave

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Wilfred, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Alpha, which became post-tropical over northern Portugal. Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is moving southward and is now located just south of the western Azores. The cyclone is forecast to continue southward for the next day or two and then stall over marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores. The cyclone could subsequently develop tropical or subtropical characteristics by early next week while it moves little. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A tropical wave is located near the west coast of Africa and will move westward over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days. Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2 $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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