Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Andrea | Barry | Chantal | Dexter | Erin | Fernand | Gabrielle | Humberto | Imelda | Jerry | Karen | Lorenzo | Melissa | Nestor | Olga | Pablo | Rebekah | Sebastien | Tanya | Van | Wendy |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (08:00 UTC, 12 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Thursday, July 10, 2025 13:24PM PDT - New forecast
Chantal came and went. The winds weren't too bad, but Chantal dropped 7-8 inch rain locally in North Carolina, so lots of flooding. Unfortunately, five people are confirmed dead.

On another note, researchers at Colorado State issued their July forecast. A bit of good news, they think it might be a little less active than previously forecasted, with 16 tropical storms (was 17 in June, 14.4 is normal). We had 3 already, so 13 more to go. They also predict one less hurricane (8, was 9, normal is 7.2) and one less major hurricane (3, was 4, normal is 3.2). Total storm activity calculated as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was also decreased from 155 to 140 (123 is normal). Chance of one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (a big area) is 53% (was 56%, normal is 47%).

Main reasons for lowering the forecast are the expected higher levels of vertical wind shear in the Caribbean, which normally leads to a less active season. However, other predictors, like sea surface temperatures are still pointing to a very active season. Also, I am not sure how the higher vertical wind shear in the Caribbean protects the islands on the eastern island chain from say Cape Verde storms. But luckily it does look that the higher shear zone extends somewhat eastward into the Atlantic, so maybe hurricanes would weaken a bit when they approach the islands.

In other news, Michael Lowry (a Hurricane Specialist & Storm Surge Expert at WPLG-TV in Miami) posted on his Eye on the Tropics-blog an article titled: Top Hurricane Scientists Sound the Alarm on Looming NOAA Cuts. One of the points is that cuts at AOML, that houses the Hurricane Research Division would decrease the hurricane forecasting accuracy by 20-40%, which would add $10 billion in hurricane related cost per hurricane season. AOML's annual budget is around $20 million, which is only 0.2% of $10 billion. Seems like a good investment, not even accounting for increased fatalities. It does not make sense to me. So frustrating. -Gert

Saturday, July 5, 2025 17:50PM EDT - TS Chantal

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has had a slow start like harness racing, most fortunately , while the Eastern Pacific has taken off like the Triple Crown, Hurricane Erik included. That will most likely change and the Atlantic will catch up to speed as we head into the 6th week of the Atlantic season.

Homegrown systems are the norm in the first 2 months and the last month of the official hurricane season and so far, unlike Hurricane Beryl, last year's biggest anomaly, the same is true. But now, we have TS Chantal. Plus an interesting wave just off the African coast.

TS Chantal, not a threat to the Caribbean, should make landfall overnight tonight into South Carolina. As Gert alluded to in his previous post, while Chantal is not expected to get above midgrade TS status due to wind shear which is diminishing and dry air intrusion taking its place, being over those very warm gulf stream waters could lend a helping hand to a higher than mid level TS strength at landfall. Just a possibility.

Regardless, or irregardless as I like to poke the bear, Chantal will bring heavy rains between 2-6 inches (local spots maybe more) depending on forward speed and topography plus gusty winds with some flash flooding, downed vegetation, power losses, and some structural damage before degrading rapidly Monday into North Carolina.

With most of lopsided Chantal's vigorous energy focused on her north eastern side, at this time, at landfall, her full effect will be focused head on. Her southern end will receive minimal effects, still though, not to be ignored.

To the east, a wave just off the African coast has caught some attention. Saharan Dust has been most prevalent, as usual this time of year and our major protector in the Caribbean while high level wind shear moving towards the NE off of South America's northern coast heading towards the Eastern Caribbean islands adds an additional layer of protection. Dried out air and wind shear mean usual doom for incoming systems trying to make a name for themselves. However, not always. A few have managed to buck the system.

Hence, never take any of the tropics for granted. Always expect the unexpected. It happens. Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Saturday, July 5, 2025 11:40AM PDT - Chantal
This morning Invest 92L was upgraded to tropical depression Chantal. It is currently drifting slowly north about 170 miles to the east of Brunswick, Georgia. It will be a short lived storm since it is expected to make landfall tomorrow close to Georgetown, South Carolina (in between Charleston and Myrtle Beach). However, when I look at the current satellite images, the center of Chantal is well to east of the forecasted track. So I think it will make landfall closer to Myrtle Beach then currently forecasted. Esp. people on the east (north/right) side of the track should pay close attention. For your convenience, I have added cities along the US East Coast to the closest point of approach-calculator, there is an option to overlay the latest satellite image so you can see it for yourself.

Although Chantal is 'just' a tropical storm and relative close to the coast, don't underestimate it. The temperature of the Gulf Stream is quite high, and additional strengthening is forecasted. Right now it doesn't look like it will become a hurricane but we have seen 'unexpected' rapid intensification happen when storms are close to the coast and above warm water. Major hazards will be the wind and the rainfall, which can cause flooding. Stay safe everybody. -Gert

Saturday, June 28, 2025 09:32AM EDT - 91L

Good morning all,

I hope and trust all is well as can be with everyone. Having broken 5 ribs a week ago has put a crimp in many things I do so needless to say I haven't been up to speed lately.

The first short lived fish storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, Andrea, was, as Gert shared, a storm we like, is no longer,but a fleeting memory of the start to this season. Still, a wake up call for what lies ahead. Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific has been almost over active as their historical season starts 2 weeks, mid May, before the Atlantic officially begins.

Now we have 91L in the Bay of Campeche headed for a collision with the SE coast of Mexico while drenching flooding rains fall on Belize and Guatemala. Will it have the time to realize a named storm which would be next in line Barry? Possibly, but it has a short lifespan to make it happen. With the ultra warm waters and limited wind shear, it does have a good possibility to rapidly intensify from invest to a named entity. Time will tell.
Regardless,heavy rains and flash flooding will be its legacy, no matter if it realizes a name or not.

Looking towards the east, we will have a few early season waves approach but with the hostile upper level wind shear and heavy effects of the Saharan Dust Layer, chances are quite low of anything tropical developing anytime soon. However, do not let that deceive you as some waves have overcome the odds like this and manifested themselves into tropical entities.

The mantra, stay safe and prepared. Have a good weekend.

Dave

Tuesday, June 24, 2025 08:48AM PDT - Andrea
As I alluded to yesterday, Invest 90L has become the first tropical storm of the season, Andrea. It is far away from us (950 miles to the northeast of Bermuda, and about 1500 miles from the islands) and moving away. Also, Andrea will be short lived since it awaits colder sea surface temperatures and high wind shear. It might not even last a day. One down, we like these storms.

On a separate note, today the website part that is hosted on one of the dedicated servers will be migrated to a 'new generation' server by my excellent web host pairNetworks, so it will be down for hopefully not too long. -Gert

Monday, June 23, 2025 16:00PM PDT - Some action?
Our first invest this year! Luckily it is in the subtropical Atlantic, over 600 miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. If it develops into something , it won't affect us in the Caribbean. It is nice to have a slow start of hurricane season. Last year around this time a tropical wave came off the African coast and became Hurricane Beryl, making landfall on Carriacou July 1st with 140 mph winds! -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located offshore the Atlantic coast of 
northern Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
across portions of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas and adjacent 
Atlantic waters.  This system is forecast to move westward across 
Florida during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by 
late Tuesday.  Environmental conditions appear favorable enough to 
support some gradual development of this system while it moves 
westward to west-northwestward across the northeastern and 
north-central portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part 
of this week.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could 
produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the 
north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of 
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Jul 13 21:21]
- St.Thomas [Jul 13 8:40]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Jul 9 7:39]
- Barbados [Jul 6 19:03]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jul 6 12:43]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jul 5 15:25]
- Nevis [Jul 1 14:39]
- Antigua [Jun 29 7:49]
- Dominican Republic [Jun 10 16:23]
- St.Lucia [May 13 14:51]
- Saba [May 9 11:44]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- Michael Lowry's Blog
- zoom.earth hurricane tracker
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert