Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (06:40 UTC, 11 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Wednesday, August 4, 2021 22:14PM EDT - Heating up MDR

Good night everyone,

The lull is over and I hope everyone used that time to finish preparations for the upcoming slingshots that will be firing off the African coast for the next 8-10 weeks or so. Each one from now on has potential, whether right off the bat upon splashdown like the one falling off land tomorrow or the one that puts you to sleep, lazily wandering across the MDR until it's almost upon you which is what a lot of the lowriders do. Let the 93% of this season commence.

91L, which menaced the Cabo Verde Islands as it moved northward, has now poofed and no threat to develop. However, it's remnants are expected to take a left turn Clyde and head west while under that steering high pressure ridge with regeneration a possibility and a sneaky one at that as all eyes will be farther south if it does.

So, farther south is a very vigorous wave that the NHC has been monitoring the last few days and has given it a 40% chance of development within the next 5 days while still over land. Forecast to move generally west under that same steering high pressure, it will be a thankful beneficiary of the wave in front of it's generosity, by soaking up that dry Saharan Dust and moistening the atmosphere ahead. With that moist atmosphere and low to moderate wind shear, this wave should develop as long as it stays generally west. This could setup up a collision with the Northern Antilles mid to late next week. Could. Not in stone. If the ridge breaks down before the islands in time, we would have an early season "fish storm", a welcome sight.

Closer to the islands around 45W, that benefactor wave in front has a chance as well but it will be a rougher go as it has to master the dust surrounding it as it is forecast to move more to the WNW. This also puts it on a possible collision with the northern islands and where it goes after passing them is anyone's guess.

These last two waves have also been mentioned as possibly threatening the east coast which will depend on the strength of that strong high pressure at that time if they are developed in the first place. But that's another story or hopefully a non story down the road.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

Monday, August 2, 2021 11:05AM PDT - All still quiet

Just got back from St.Maarten/St.Martin. Had a fantastic time on the Friendly Island, beautiful beaches, gourmet food. Although on vacation I was still keeping an eye on the tropics, see below (But what is up with the cans of Presidente? Why can't I buy bottles in the stores anymore?). No storms in sight! There is only one wave close to the Cape Verde's that has a low chance of development. Quiet for August, hope it stays that way! -Gert

Tuesday, July 20, 2021 06:13AM EDT - Quiet on all fronts. For now...

Good morning all from Germany,

First, prayers and condolences to all affected by the catastrophic flooding in Western Germany, Belgium and Holland. The worst flooding is roughly 2.5 hours west and southwest of where my wife and I are staying. While this is the Caribbean Hurricane Network, I cannot ignore the human devastation and physical destruction so close to me which happened so quickly and somewhat unexpectedly. Flooding to some level was forecast possible but 2 months of rain in one day plus residual rains before and after was not even fathomed. The surreal pictures tell many stories which leaves one speechless in it's ferocity and terror.

The Atlantic and the Caribbean, on the other hand, is devoid of calamity for the present time as, after a very fast and frantic start, a lull and a sense of calm has enveloped the region. Saharan Dust, dry and hazy, continues to play tag with the continuous African wave train with the dust winning at almost every turn, reducing active splashdown off the African coast waves to mere shells of their former formidable selves. However, the lull, while welcomed, will be short lived and a few of those waves will unfortunately be the tag-ers and somewhere in the Caribbean, GOM, and east coast will be the tag-ees.

Looking ahead in the short term, nothing stands out except for the omnipresent dust. As shared earlier, waves exit the African coast but are reduced quickly by a steady diet of dryness to the north, wringing out the wave like you would a squeegee. There are a couple waves approaching the islands currently with the first very weak and the second with much more moisture content with not much else. In about a week, models suggest tropical cyclone formation is probable off the South Carolina coast and/or south of Newfoundland. Obviously not in our arena but still, if this manifests, will be a probable sign our lull might be over.

Complacency sucks. Be prepared.

Dave

Tuesday, July 6, 2021 21:44PM EDT - Caribbean says bye Elsa

Good night,

Now, for the second time a minimal hurricane, Elsa is finally out of the Caribbean arena and jumped headfirst into the GOM. Lashing the lower west coast of Florida with a trailing scorpions tail still stinging the Keys, Elsa, at the moment about 45 miles off to the west of Sarasota, could intensify just a bit more before finally taking a header north of Tampa if the track holds as forecast. Hurricane hunters are currently in the storm and have found a wobbly system still trying to get more organized. The upgrade to hurricane status was based on land based radar readings with the HH in there now trying to confirm. A 5 mph uptick will not make much difference in Elsa's effects though. The longer she is over water, the potential for strengthening does remain though. However, it won't be the wind that does the most damage right away. It will be the storm surge. The wind and flooding rains will pick up the damage slack. After Florida, Elsa looks to take a tour of the whole east coast. She sure will have come a long roundabout way from the coast of Africa to visit the Statue of Liberty.

Back to the Caribbean and the MDR, the most prominent features are 3 tropical waves and an expansive, copious amount of Saharan Dust stretching from the Cabo Verde Islands east to the Lesser Antilles west while dipping below 10N and above 30N. This over 2500 mile stretch of moderate to heavy dust concentrations will severely inhibit any system traveling close to or through from trying to become the next name in an already record setting tropical season just 1 month and 6 days old. if this layer was dipping below 10N just a week ago, we probably would not have had an Elsa before reaching the Caribbean, if at all.

The wave closest and furthest south is below 10N around 66W with blustery, rainy conditions affecting the lower Windward islands and Trinidad/Tobago. Too close to South America now, it might be interesting in the Western Caribbean. The middle wave is wimpy around 44W with not much of a future for the time being as it's too close to the dipping SAL around 10N, while the third wave, also a 10N lurker at 29W, has more convection than the middle one but also is being suppressed by the omnipresent SAL.

There is a 4th just launching off the African coast with impressive size and not enveloped in dust. Time will tell if it keeps it's composure or poofs under the dust onslaught. Even if it does, the wave train will send more so don't let the lull in action, lull you.

Be prepared and stay safe!

Dave.

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