Caribbean Hurricane Network
- Updates from the Islands -
|2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
|| Arlene | Bret | Cindy | Don | Emily | Franklin | Gert | Harold | Idalia | Jose | Katia | Lee | Margot | Nigel | Ophelia | Philippe | Rina | Sean | Tammy | Vince | Whitney ||
Active Tropical Systems: Post-tropical Cyclone Ophelia, Tropical Storm Philippe
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (09:30 UTC, 13 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)
Friday, September 22, 2023 06:52AM EDT
There has not been a break in the action in quite a while which historically is normal this time of the hurricane season however it wasn't supposed to be like this with a strong El Nino. Well, she's been a no show pretty much as far as effects on tropical development are concerned and we have something to seriously consider on the horizon for the Caribbean.
Longevity hurricane Lee has finally dispersed after quite the trek through the Atlantic menacing many along his path. Post tropical storm Nigel, once a fish storm hurricane, is still a formidable force and will be for a few more days but no direct land interaction is expected before he dissipates. We also have soon to be subtropical or maybe even tropical storm Ophelia (now Potential Tropical Cyclone 16), moving generally but somewhat erratically to the NNW at about 14 mph headed for a Carolinas impact. The effects of this storm are far reaching to the east and north and regardless of its classification, will bring heavy rains and strong winds ahead of the COC (center of circulation) this weekend. So, from the Carolinas to southern NE winds, heavy rain and storm surge will be the main issues with the storm surge maybe the biggest.
On to the Caribbean where it is quiet for now and where rain is needed. We just don't need a hurricane for that. It has been a pretty dry spring and summer so far and cisterns are crying for some good mother nature downpours. So we look to the east and find a large tropical wave that is forecast to become a major hurricane down the road and potentially threaten the NE Caribbean in a week or so.
Invest 90L. A low rider about 550 miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving between 10-15 mph per satellite observations, this system is expected by most of the models to turn WNW before reaching the Caribbean like its brethren before it. However, there are 2 scenarios. One, the faster it moves, the more of a threat to the islands. The other is a slower movement which should force it on a more WNW solution. Once it interacts with another system ahead of it, we will have a clearer picture of where soon to be Philippe is going to head. The Saharan Dust Layer is to the north, SST's are way above average, and wind shear is moderate in this lowrider area so the possibility of a major hurricane eventually is very apparent. Keep a vigilant eye on this one.
Stay safe, prepared and look out for your pets and neighbors!
Friday, September 15, 2023 19:05PM EDT
Good evening from Miami airport,
A quick update and this will be quick.
Hurricane Lee will have a severe impact indirectly on New England, specifically the Cape, Boston and into Maine. Nova Scotia looks to take the brunt with the possibility of actually being cut off from the mainland of Canada proper. Lee will have a quick but very damaging effect between now and Sunday. I hope they are all prepared. The NE east coast will be ravaged and I hope they are ready as well. This will not be pretty.
TS Margo will be the sit and spin of storms, meandering in the central Atlantic doing a merry go round of sorts as weak steering currents are present allowing her to just do the do si do until she finally succumbs to cooler waters. No threat.
TD #15 is forecast to become hurricane Nigel down the road with maybe being a threat to the hurricane magnet of the year, aka Bermuda. We shall see.
Later down the road, several low riders will exit the African coast which have evil intentions on the Caribbean as they will move more west than WNW like the previous systems. Stay tuned!
Stay safe and prepared. Have a good weekend! Now to catch another plane.
Tuesday, September 12, 2023 16:01PM PDT - Bermuda?
- Hurricane Lee is getting bigger and bigger, but not necessarily stronger. The eye is now about 50 mile wide! Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles and tropical storm winds 205. Although Bermuda is not inside the 'Cone of Uncertainty' I would still keep a close eye on this storm. Its current closest point of approach is about 180 miles (see below), with 50% chance of getting tropical storm winds starting early Thursday. The storm looks pretty big relative to Bermuda...
The 'Cone of Uncertainty' doesn't actually say anything about the actual model uncertainty. The cone has a fixed dimension regardless of storm size, impacts (like heavy rain, swell, etc.) or model uncertainty. It is actually based on how well the National Hurricane Center has predicted previous storms. This is getting better every year, and thus making the cone smaller. A good read on this can be found on this Brian McNoldy's blog post.
Since the storm has grown so big in size the NHC Advisory state that: "Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week."
Elsewhere we have fish storm (now hurricane) Margot. Invest 97L and 98L far east in the Atlantic also seem to bend nicely north well before reaching us! Stay safe! -Gert
... Older discussions >>
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located over the Central Tropical Atlantic.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development
of this system during the middle to latter portions of the week
while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Public Advisories on Philippe are issued under WMO header WTNT32
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Philippe are issued under WMO header WTNT22
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image|
stormCARIB is brought to you by GoBeach Vacations
- Your Accommodation Specialist for the Caribbean -
stormCARIB is hosted
at and supported by
-- Donations needed --
Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Sep 23 23:50]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Sep 22 18:21]
- Antigua [Sep 22 7:42]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 20 10:23]
- St.Thomas [Sep 19 19:18]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Sep 19 4:26]
- Dominica [Sep 18 21:28]
- Turks & Caicos [Sep 12 21:28]
- Saba [Sep 12 8:08]
- Barbados [Sep 8 18:29]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Sep 7 17:19]
- Nevis [Sep 6 10:20]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 23 16:36]
- Aruba [Aug 22 7:43]
- Curaçao [Aug 15 10:44]
- Martinique [Jun 23 8:17]
- St.Lucia [Jun 23 7:21]
- Montserrat [Jun 20 20:08]
- Jamaica [May 31 13:09]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- Michael Lowry's Blog
- zoom.earth hurricane tracker
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide
Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x
|- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -|
The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!
Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (email@example.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to firstname.lastname@example.org. Gert