Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good morning,

Things have been quiet since the beginning of June as they usually are but 92L has jump started July with dreaded anticipation along the Gulf Coast. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 92L later this afternoon and might find a surprise or two. Unusual but not unprecedented for it's formative trek through the Midwest diving southeast towards the GOM, 92L is now poised to become the next named storm in the young season, Barry.

Regardless of whether it reaches named status, which it probably will, the real threat at this moment is more flooding along the Mississippi River. While forecast to crest just 1 foot above the levees in New Orleans, areas to the west of New Orleans could actually use some good rain due to moderate drought. Problem is, if this plays out, there will be much more rain than bargained for.

Until a COC is formed, forecasting the track and intensity will be difficult. If it stays close to the coast, it's intensity will be stalled due to land interaction even though most land along the coast is pretty flat which limits friction. The farther south then west it moves, then it's over extremely warm water, like 86-90 degrees, which is prime fuel for intensification. Normally thisÂcan leadÂto RI (Rapid Intensification) but wind shear should limit that possibility.

Landfall is now forecast to occur in western LA/TX border. While population levels are far less, the eastern and northern sides will would receive the bulk of the rain and wind where the more populous areas reside. It is not out of the realm of possibility, at the moment, that Houston could be in the crosshairs as well as a Cat 1 hurricane.

Preparations should be well underway regardless as it will land with heavy rains, flooding and possibly strong winds. In the Atlantic, it's quiet with copious amounts of Sahara Dust doing it's normal, seasonal protective duty suppressing formation and rain activity as a whole. We in the NE Caribbean could use some regular rain as it's been droughty since December.

Dave

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry, located over southern Missouri. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public advisories on Barry from the Weather Prediction Center can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Blake

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