Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: Post-tropical Cyclone Ophelia, Tropical Storm Philippe
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (09:30 UTC, 13 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Friday, September 22, 2023 06:52AM EDT - Next!

Good morning,

There has not been a break in the action in quite a while which historically is normal this time of the hurricane season however it wasn't supposed to be like this with a strong El Nino. Well, she's been a no show pretty much as far as effects on tropical development are concerned and we have something to seriously consider on the horizon for the Caribbean.

Longevity hurricane Lee has finally dispersed after quite the trek through the Atlantic menacing many along his path. Post tropical storm Nigel, once a fish storm hurricane, is still a formidable force and will be for a few more days but no direct land interaction is expected before he dissipates. We also have soon to be subtropical or maybe even tropical storm Ophelia (now Potential Tropical Cyclone 16), moving generally but somewhat erratically to the NNW at about 14 mph headed for a Carolinas impact. The effects of this storm are far reaching to the east and north and regardless of its classification, will bring heavy rains and strong winds ahead of the COC (center of circulation) this weekend. So, from the Carolinas to southern NE winds, heavy rain and storm surge will be the main issues with the storm surge maybe the biggest.

On to the Caribbean where it is quiet for now and where rain is needed. We just don't need a hurricane for that. It has been a pretty dry spring and summer so far and cisterns are crying for some good mother nature downpours. So we look to the east and find a large tropical wave that is forecast to become a major hurricane down the road and potentially threaten the NE Caribbean in a week or so.

Invest 90L. A low rider about 550 miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving between 10-15 mph per satellite observations, this system is expected by most of the models to turn WNW before reaching the Caribbean like its brethren before it. However, there are 2 scenarios. One, the faster it moves, the more of a threat to the islands. The other is a slower movement which should force it on a more WNW solution. Once it interacts with another system ahead of it, we will have a clearer picture of where soon to be Philippe is going to head. The Saharan Dust Layer is to the north, SST's are way above average, and wind shear is moderate in this lowrider area so the possibility of a major hurricane eventually is very apparent. Keep a vigilant eye on this one.

Stay safe, prepared and look out for your pets and neighbors!

Dave.

Friday, September 15, 2023 19:05PM EDT - Busy

Good evening from Miami airport,

A quick update and this will be quick.

Hurricane Lee will have a severe impact indirectly on New England, specifically the Cape, Boston and into Maine. Nova Scotia looks to take the brunt with the possibility of actually being cut off from the mainland of Canada proper. Lee will have a quick but very damaging effect between now and Sunday. I hope they are all prepared. The NE east coast will be ravaged and I hope they are ready as well. This will not be pretty.

TS Margo will be the sit and spin of storms, meandering in the central Atlantic doing a merry go round of sorts as weak steering currents are present allowing her to just do the do si do until she finally succumbs to cooler waters. No threat.

TD #15 is forecast to become hurricane Nigel down the road with maybe being a threat to the hurricane magnet of the year, aka Bermuda. We shall see.

Later down the road, several low riders will exit the African coast which have evil intentions on the Caribbean as they will move more west than WNW like the previous systems. Stay tuned!

Stay safe and prepared. Have a good weekend! Now to catch another plane.

Dave

Tuesday, September 12, 2023 16:01PM PDT - Bermuda?

Hurricane Lee is getting bigger and bigger, but not necessarily stronger. The eye is now about 50 mile wide! Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles and tropical storm winds 205. Although Bermuda is not inside the 'Cone of Uncertainty' I would still keep a close eye on this storm. Its current closest point of approach is about 180 miles (see below), with 50% chance of getting tropical storm winds starting early Thursday. The storm looks pretty big relative to Bermuda...

The 'Cone of Uncertainty' doesn't actually say anything about the actual model uncertainty. The cone has a fixed dimension regardless of storm size, impacts (like heavy rain, swell, etc.) or model uncertainty. It is actually based on how well the National Hurricane Center has predicted previous storms. This is getting better every year, and thus making the cone smaller. A good read on this can be found on this Brian McNoldy's blog post.

Since the storm has grown so big in size the NHC Advisory state that: "Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week."

Elsewhere we have fish storm (now hurricane) Margot. Invest 97L and 98L far east in the Atlantic also seem to bend nicely north well before reaching us! Stay safe! -Gert

- - - Closest Point of Approach of Lee with Bermuda - - -

... Older discussions >>