Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good evening,

Currently, we have a break in the activity in the Atlantic Basin and Caribbean as we have had a breakneck open to the start of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Already, the next name on the list is Josephine. Yes, a J letter. In August possibly. If it happens before Aug. 22, it will be the earliest J named tropical system. If I recall correctly, 2005 was the earliest when we reached the Greek alphabet, having run out of the season's English names for storms. I hope they come up with a Plan B set of say 5 names instead of resigning to the Greek alphabet as they do not change.

Ex 94L: Still a swirl and not going anywhere fast but on satellite, it's appearance is noted. This should not be of any consequence.

95L. Located approx 10N 33W, it has the attention of the NHC as the next candidate for development, vanguard of what lies ahead coming off the coast of Africa. Given a current 60% chance within the next 5 days, the northern Leewards could be in for a strong wave, a TD, or a TS. Hurricane chances are slim by the time it reaches or goes north of the islands as dry air courtesy of the Saharan Dust level making for low relative humidity levels and a bit of increased wind shear should forestall hurricane chances. However, after that it could be a different story.

The wave ahead of 95L will bring some stormy weather but it's potential to develop is negligible at this time. Looking behind 95L, there are some robust waves crossing the African continent and will continue to retain their robustness through mid October. 61% of the actual official hurricane season is still ahead. However, the next 8.5 weeks are the historically most active. With the several scientific prognosis outlooks, CSU, NOAA, and others having been released, it's noted all have raised the Atlantic and Caribbean stakes. This does not mean it will be that way, but it does mean they are basing these prognosises on history and the science at hand. SST's are warmer. a weak La Nina exists in the East Pacific, wind shear is unusually weak, the steering mechanism Bermuda high is farther west and south increasing the likelihood of Caribbean and Lower 48 impacts, a CCKW (convectively-connected Kelvin wave which has sinking air ahead and rising air behind) plus the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) which circles the globe every 30-60 days and will arrive in the Atlantic Basin in say 10-14 days, are all expected to lead to tropical mayhem in the months ahead.

History does repeat itself including Mother Nature. Been proven. Over and over. So, with that said, my advice repeats itself continues. It only takes one. The pandemic is rough. You get a landfalling tropical system and it will only add to the misery. Be prepared and be safe. Do not wait till you have to stand in a long 5 hour line for a tankful of gas, provisions, batteries, etc...

Dave

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Thunderstorm activity associated with a large low pressure system located more than 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has increased and become a little better organized over the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development to occur, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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