Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good Saturday evening,

The imposter, 96L, is still lurking off to the east of the Eastern Caribbean Islands but the earlier menacing gestures of an early season named system generated from the Cabo Verde Islands area have diminished significantly in the last few days. The upper level shearing low, aka TUTT, located just north of the NE Caribbean Islands, with a dash of Saharan Dust drying out the atmosphere, has contributed to the gradual reduction of percentages of development from the NHC. The models concur. But.....

Large, elongated and discombobulated, 96L still does have a small chance of at least reaching TD status, according to about 50% of the model ensembles, if it can get it's act together but the window is closing rapidly. If it does reach that status, it will be short lived. Still, Tuesday into Thursday widespread showers, thunderstorms, rough seas and gusty winds will be the menu much like 95L before it.

Meanwhile, the wave train continues behind 96L so a wetter pattern will continue the next few weeks with cyclogenesis conditions not expected to manifest themselves until the last week of August. Will it be a quiet season this year or will the season suddenly explode with activity and possible calamity? It will be interesting and problematic at the same time. Interesting to see how it all pans out. Problematic if just one storm is the calamity. After all, it does, only take one.

Be safe. Be prepared.Â

Have a good weekend everyone!

Dave

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Satellite and surface observations show that a broad area of low pressure has formed just northwest of Andros Island in the central Bahamas. This system continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves near the coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeast United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas, and the east-central and southeast Florida peninsula during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown/Roberts

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