Caribbean Hurricane Network

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has had a slow start like harness racing, most fortunately , while the Eastern Pacific has taken off like the Triple Crown, Hurricane Erik included. That will most likely change and the Atlantic will catch up to speed as we head into the 6th week of the Atlantic season.

Homegrown systems are the norm in the first 2 months and the last month of the official hurricane season and so far, unlike Hurricane Beryl, last year's biggest anomaly, the same is true. But now, we have TS Chantal. Plus an interesting wave just off the African coast.

TS Chantal, not a threat to the Caribbean, should make landfall overnight tonight into South Carolina. As Gert alluded to in his previous post, while Chantal is not expected to get above midgrade TS status due to wind shear which is diminishing and dry air intrusion taking its place, being over those very warm gulf stream waters could lend a helping hand to a higher than mid level TS strength at landfall. Just a possibility.

Regardless, or irregardless as I like to poke the bear, Chantal will bring heavy rains between 2-6 inches (local spots maybe more) depending on forward speed and topography plus gusty winds with some flash flooding, downed vegetation, power losses, and some structural damage before degrading rapidly Monday into North Carolina.

With most of lopsided Chantal's vigorous energy focused on her north eastern side, at this time, at landfall, her full effect will be focused head on. Her southern end will receive minimal effects, still though, not to be ignored.

To the east, a wave just off the African coast has caught some attention. Saharan Dust has been most prevalent, as usual this time of year and our major protector in the Caribbean while high level wind shear moving towards the NE off of South America's northern coast heading towards the Eastern Caribbean islands adds an additional layer of protection. Dried out air and wind shear mean usual doom for incoming systems trying to make a name for themselves. However, not always. A few have managed to buck the system.

Hence, never take any of the tropics for granted. Always expect the unexpected. It happens. Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northeastern Gulf: A trough of low pressure located offshore the Atlantic coast of northern Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms across portions of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. This system is forecast to move westward across Florida during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear favorable enough to support some gradual development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen

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