Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (15:30 UTC, 19 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Friday, August 5, 2022 20:46PM EDT - Low rider season continues

Good evening all,

Gert has shared already the updates the experts have forecast for the remainder of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. Not much change but a tad downward. Not enough though to make a big difference and it's still above average as well as the strike probabilities in most areas. Again not much change. An early jumpstart to the season saw three named storms, one which formed over land and died over land 24 hours later aka Colin, but nothing but dust since. That jumpstart had many thinking wow we are in for a jamming season. The lull in activity obviously surprised many but also raised concern among many as what will the remainder of the season hold. Bust or boom?

There are several areas to chat about but not much in the way of "promise" except the one ready to splash down off the coast of Africa and this one might not live up to the "promise" but still pave the way for those behind.

The wave about to dump heavy possibly flash flooding rains on Costa Rica and Nicaragua had potential with lowering shear and atmospheric pressures but limited time to pull it together. Still, while undeveloped, a menace to those countries regardless.

The system that left the Louisiana coast and dipped south then NW had possibilities but again, ran out of time. With most of Texas is in a moderate to severe drought situation, including flood prone Houston, it should bring some welcoming rains to alleviate some of the drought but also flash flooding on the concrete jungle of the city as well as the drought hardened ground.

The surface trough now between the Bahamas and Bermuda which previously gave Bermuda some much blessed rain had moved SW after it's Bermuda visit and showed some signs of tropical life. However, this evening, it appears to be poofing under the strong westerly influence of the Bermuda high to its east. You never know so something maybe to watch the next few days.

There are several waves, limited in activity, crossing the Atlantic MDR and they are all, at the moment, lowriders. This means moving close and parallel to the ITCZ also below the Saharan Dust Layer above. None are forecast to break through and become a named storm. There is one though, splashing down as I write this, with potential. There are also a few lined up already behind it so expect the activity to ramp up, maybe not this week coming, but in the next weeks after. With the West African monsoon upticking, the waves will become more prolific and the MDR bowling alley will be open for business.

Ok there is just an overview of the situation at hand. Lowriders pose a more considerable concern for several reasons. They tend to hide under the Saharan Dust Layer, just ride along the top of the ITCZ while not raising much concern, and are much less inclined to turn into "fish storms". Once they escape the draft of the ITCZ and start to turn with the earth's spin aka the Coriolis effect which only changes direction, not speed, these lowriders, if they haven't turned before 50W, are prone to become very dangerous tropical systems.

On a historical note, this August 16th marks the 30 year anniversary of Hurricane Andrew's demure start and devastating road trip through the Bahamas, Florida and Louisiana which officially ended August 29th, 1992. For many who survived his tragic impacts, it seems like yesterday. Lessons have been learned but some have been ignored to this day sadly.

Stay prepared and safe.

Dave

Friday, August 5, 2022 09:58AM PDT - Still above average season expected

We have not had any hurricanes yet this season, but updated forecasts out this week still calls for an above average season. The researchers at Colorado State has lowered the number of storm a bit, but stll expects 15 more named storms (18 total, was 20, 14.4 is normal), 8 hurricanes (was 10, 7.2 is normal) of which 4 are expected to reach Category 3 or higher (major hurricanes, was 5, 3.2 is normal). The probability for at least one 'big one' to travel throught the Caribbean (a big area) is 57% (was 64%, normal is 42%). Main reasons for this are the below normal subtropical sea surface temperatures, on the other hand, La Nina conditions will like persist through the season (which normally increases activity). NOAA also decreased their numbers a bit (see here), but still expects above normal season.

In the table below I summarized the chance of a major hurricane moving within 50 miles of a specific Caribbean island/country compared to the long term average (1880-2020) (taken from: https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html).

Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles

One last note regarding a late start of the season... I read on The Eye of the Storm blog: “If we make it until August 13 with no named storm formations (fairly likely), it’ll be the first time since 1999 that we went from July 4 to August 13 with no named storm formations,” said CSU’s Philip Klotzbach in a Twitter direct message. He added: “Of course, 1999 ended up a hyperactive season, so there’s that!”. That was the year of Floyd and Lenny... Whatever happens happens, the only thing we can do is prepare, prepare, prepare! Stay safe! -Gert

Thursday, July 21, 2022 20:17PM EDT - Atlantic ramp up soon

Good evening all from CLT airport,

Just a quick drop in between the early season eye opening and the impending Atlantic ramp up that is almost certain to manifest itself as we transition from weeks of sudden calm with copious amounts of Saharan dust to a more active pattern starting around the 7-10 day mark into the first few weeks of August. This is not based on my concrete definity but a prognosis based upon experience and the potential atmospheric components coming together as they rotate around the earth. It's their time to be in the Atlantic as they have had the eastern Pacific all to their own the last few weeks.

The SAL, aka Saharan Dust Layer is quite prolific and stretches thousands of miles and in between the rains we received today in the northern islands, extremely welcomed ones by the way, and the next tropical wave that has exited the African coast is a large swath of it. This swath will result in very hazy, hot and dry days for the next almost week. This wave looks impressive upon splashdown but has little chance of development. However, it will sacrifice itself and help pave the way for future waves by moistening the atmosphere ahead of the followers. The wave that exits to the north will have a slightly better chance at initial development but will eventually fall prey to the dust mantis as well.

Look for the first few weeks of August to show tropical life in the Caribbean, maybe the GOMEX and the eastern Atlantic MDR (Main Development Region). If you haven't prepared yet, you still have time but time waits for no man or storm so take advantage of this lull in the action and finalize your preparations.If you have ever been through a Marilyn. Ivan, Irma, Maria and others, you already should know better. Teach and lead the others who do not know or maybe don't want to know. Their lives might depend on it. Not a scare but a truth.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

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