Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good morning,

While beautiful weather is here in central Pennsylvania, the same cannot be said off the coast of the Carolinas and soon, the mid to northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

Closest to home, we have TS Beryl, once the Atlantics first hurricane of the 2018 season. About 190 miles ENE of Barbados as of 8 am this morning, the second smallest TS on record in the Atlantic basin is moving at a motivated 20 mph towards the WNW putting it on a collision course with Dominica, Guadeloupe, and Martinique. With wind shear increasing ahead plus a healthy ingestation of dry Saharan dust to it's north, TS Beryl will be on life support very soon. Its anticipated to drop to a TD just before tonight or after passing through the island chain. The islands will see some gusty, squally rains and wind gusts to maybe 50 mphÂwith accumulations in isolated spots of 4-6 inches but at her current forward speed, these spots should be a rarity. Regardless, these islands do not need Beryl as recovering from Hurricane Irma has been a slow progression. Some have no power still nor roofs. Further down the line, St. Croix will be the closest to Beryl's core, about 60 miles with again, squally and gusty rains and winds. Puerto Rico's SW coast and Hispaniola might see higher rain accumulations as well. By then, Beryl should have been disconnected from life support and officially become a remnant low of her former self.

Farther out east, a new wave have fell off the African continent drawing scant attention with Beryl and Chris in the picture already. Later on this one around 14W.

Off the Carolinas, about 150 milesÂsouth of Cape Hatteras lies a lurking TS named Chris. Set to sit and spin for a few days due to weak, almost non existent steering currents, Chris is eventually expected to be swept up by a mid week trough and carried outÂto the Canadian Maritimes possibly affecting Halifax and St. Johns with rains saved for a later date with the UK. Main effects continue for the Carolinas in the form of increasing beach erosion, strong dangerous rip currents and scattered pockets of rain. At this time, no US landfalls are predicted although there are a couple spaghetti models making landfall around Rhode Island and Boston. These are in the 1-3% category.

Either way, for both of these systems, it's a good time to get your seasonal hurricane preparations up to speed.ÂThrow out the old stuff expired from last years hurricane kit. Update with fresh. Even bottled water goes stale.

DaveÂ

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A non-tropical low appears to be forming to the east of the larger complex low pressure system centered several hundred miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. This new low could acquire some subtropical characteristics by Wednesday. However, after that time the low should be moving northeastward over colder waters and be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila

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