Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Arthur | Bertha | Cristobal | Dolly | Edouard | Fay | Gonzalo | Hanna | Isaias | Josephine | Kyle | Laura | Marco | Nana | Omar | Paulette | Rene | Sally | Teddy | Vicky | Wilfred |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (08:50 UTC, 17 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

95L Invest:

Monday, August 10, 2020 20:28PM EDT - 95L Plus

Good evening,

Currently, we have a break in the activity in the Atlantic Basin and Caribbean as we have had a breakneck open to the start of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Already, the next name on the list is Josephine. Yes, a J letter. In August possibly. If it happens before Aug. 22, it will be the earliest J named tropical system. If I recall correctly, 2005 was the earliest when we reached the Greek alphabet, having run out of the season's English names for storms. I hope they come up with a Plan B set of say 5 names instead of resigning to the Greek alphabet as they do not change.

Ex 94L: Still a swirl and not going anywhere fast but on satellite, it's appearance is noted. This should not be of any consequence.

95L. Located approx 10N 33W, it has the attention of the NHC as the next candidate for development, vanguard of what lies ahead coming off the coast of Africa. Given a current 60% chance within the next 5 days, the northern Leewards could be in for a strong wave, a TD, or a TS. Hurricane chances are slim by the time it reaches or goes north of the islands as dry air courtesy of the Saharan Dust level making for low relative humidity levels and a bit of increased wind shear should forestall hurricane chances. However, after that it could be a different story.

The wave ahead of 95L will bring some stormy weather but it's potential to develop is negligible at this time. Looking behind 95L, there are some robust waves crossing the African continent and will continue to retain their robustness through mid October. 61% of the actual official hurricane season is still ahead. However, the next 8.5 weeks are the historically most active. With the several scientific prognosis outlooks, CSU, NOAA, and others having been released, it's noted all have raised the Atlantic and Caribbean stakes. This does not mean it will be that way, but it does mean they are basing these prognosises on history and the science at hand. SST's are warmer. a weak La Nina exists in the East Pacific, wind shear is unusually weak, the steering mechanism Bermuda high is farther west and south increasing the likelihood of Caribbean and Lower 48 impacts, a CCKW (convectively-connected Kelvin wave which has sinking air ahead and rising air behind) plus the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) which circles the globe every 30-60 days and will arrive in the Atlantic Basin in say 10-14 days, are all expected to lead to tropical mayhem in the months ahead.

History does repeat itself including Mother Nature. Been proven. Over and over. So, with that said, my advice repeats itself continues. It only takes one. The pandemic is rough. You get a landfalling tropical system and it will only add to the misery. Be prepared and be safe. Do not wait till you have to stand in a long 5 hour line for a tankful of gas, provisions, batteries, etc...

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Monday, August 10, 2020 13:45PM PDT - 95L
A tropical wave about 1900 miles east of the islands is showing a medium chance (60%) to become a tropical depression and maybe later tropical storm Josephine. Currently it is not that organized, but conditions further down are reasonably ok for slow development. Moving west/northwest at 15mph it is still 4-5 days from the islands. Most likely it will just cross north of the islands (see GFS ensemble image below from weathernerds.org or spaghetti plots above in the tools section). At that time it might have reached tropical storm strength, it is unlikely to become a hurricane before it reaches the islands. Still of course worth keeping an eye on. -Gert

- - - GFS Ensemble Forecast (August 10-15) - - -

Thursday, August 6, 2020 11:37AM PDT - August
Isaias is gone, and other than a tropical wave not much going on. It is already August, so let's see where we should look now for storm formation... The plot below taken from the climatology section shows storm origins over the last 76 years. It is color coded by how strong the storm became. Blue stars mean that it stayed 'just' a tropical storm, orange, red and pink stars became major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 and 5, resp.). We can clearly see that most storms are now forming in the Atlantic since it has warmed up sufficiently. Not good for us. It is "Cape Verde" season, with many storms forming just off the African coast. Of all storms forming this month, traditionally 44% are just tropical storms, and about 1 in 4 will become a major hurricane... So, if you haven't, now is a good time to check if you are prepared for the storm. Are your storm shutters in order? Do you have an emergency food supply? Batteries? Are your power banks (portable batteries to charge your phone) charged? Etc..., stay safe everyone and wear your masks if your government 'advises' you to do so.

Also, Klotzbach et al. of Colorado State just updated their hurricane forecast (see their website). Not surprisingly they upped their forecast. Things to blame: above normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, below normal vertical wind shear, and a possible weak La Nina. Total storms expected: 24 (12 is normal, 15 more storms this season). Hurricanes: 12 (normal is 6.4, 10 more to go...). Major hurricanes: 5 (2.7 is normal, 5 more to go...). Chance of at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (a big area): 63% (42% is average). It we would reach 24 storms than it would be the second busiest season 'ever'. Leading the chart is 2005 with 28 named storms (a year where we ran out of names, and dipped in the Greek alphabet). That was the year of Katrina, but a year of relative calm for us. -Gert

- - - Storm Origins August 1944-2019 - - -

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a large low pressure system 
located more than 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands 
has increased and become a little better organized over the past 
several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive 
for development to occur, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves westward 
to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. 
Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by 
the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Aug 10 23:59]
- Grenada [Aug 10 10:03]
- Antigua [Aug 9 11:21]
- Nevis [Aug 8 11:58]
- Barbados [Aug 7 9:06]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Aug 5 20:27]
- St.Thomas [Aug 4 13:57]
- Bahamas [Aug 3 19:26]
- Bonaire [Jul 31 18:49]
- Puerto Rico [Jul 31 12:21]
- Turks & Caicos [Jul 31 8:00]
- Dominican Republic [Jul 31 5:34]
- Florida Keys [Jul 30 23:11]
- Montserrat [Jul 30 20:21]
- Vieques (PR) [Jul 30 19:28]
- Jamaica [Jul 30 15:38]
- St.John [Jul 30 14:02]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jul 29 16:20]
- Anguilla [Jul 29 12:15]
- Martinique [Jul 29 11:53]
- Dominica [Jul 29 8:03]
- St.Lucia [Jul 25 12:49]
- Haiti [Jul 24 11:02]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert