Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Andrea | Barry | Chantal | Dexter | Erin | Fernand | Gabrielle | Humberto | Imelda | Jerry | Karen | Lorenzo | Melissa | Nestor | Olga | Pablo | Rebekah | Sebastien | Tanya | Van | Wendy |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (00:10 UTC, 15 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Monday, June 16, 2025 11:54AM PDT - Updated hurricane forecast, part 2
I couldn't quite find the island-specific impact probabilities when I wrote my update last week. But now I did find it here. Below I summarized the probability of at least one major hurricane moving within 50 miles for the Caribbean islands, compared to the long term average (1880-2000). Note that these probabilities are heavily biased by island/region area, for example the Bahamas, being a large region, will have a higher chance of a direct hit. Even though your probability is low, it doesn't mean you are out of the woods. Just like last year, Grenada has only 1% probability, but it did get hit last year with monster storm Beryl. So even if your chances are low, there is still a chance! Stay safe this season! It really helps if you are prepared! -Gert

Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles

Wednesday, June 11, 2025 09:25AM PDT - Updated hurricane forecast
Phil Klotzbach and his team at Colorado State University issued their June update of the 2025 hurricane activity forecast. They still expect an above average season. Similar to the April forecast they expect 17 tropical storms (14.4 is normal), of which 9 become hurricanes (7.2 is normal) and 4 major hurricanes (3.2 is normal). The accumulated cyclone energy index (more or less a measure of the sum of each storm's daily power) is 155 (123 is normal). There is a 56% chance that at least one major hurricane will travel through the Caribbean region (a large area, long term average is 47%).

The main reasons for this are above average sea surface temperatures and neutral ENSO conditions (El Nino/La Nina). Sea surface temperatures are not as extreme as last year, when the trade winds were not as strong as normal causing less mixing of the water column, which heated up the surface more. The weaker trade winds were due to the weaker Azores High, a more or less permanent high pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean. This year the trade winds are back, but sea surface temperatures are still above normal mainly due to human-induced climate change.

Currently in the Atlantic all is relatively quiet with no development expected in the next week. This is in contrast with the eastern Pacific, where they had already 3 storms. We just have to cope with Saharan dust and a lot of sargassum :-(. We know the storms will come, so now is a good time to get ready! Check your hurricane shutters, buy some extra canned food and water, etc. You know what to do, it is not your first time! Stay safe! -Gert

Sunday, June 1, 2025 09:44AM PDT - 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts
It is June 1st again. Official start of the hurricane season. The forecasts by NOAA, Tropical Storm Risk and Colorado State all indicate an above average season. Mainly due to above normal sea surface temperature (ocean's heat is the hurricane's energy source) which is not surprising due to the human-induced climate change. Also, there doesn't seem to be an El Nino on the horizon, which normally leads to less hurricanes, with mostly neutral ENSO conditions forecasted throughout the season.

Below the names of this season. This is a list that is repeated every 6 years. Notable hurricane names are retired. New name on this list is Dexter, that replaced Dorian, a horrific hurricane that hit the Bahamas in 2019, I still remember well.

Name         Pronunciation       Name         Pronunciation
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Andrea        AN-dree uh         Lorenzo       loh-REN-zoh
Barry         BAIR-ree           Melissa       meh-LIH-suh
Chantal       shahn-TAHL         Nestor        NES-tor
Dexter        DEHK-ster          Olga          OAL-guh
Erin          AIR-rin            Pablo         PAHB-lo
Fernand       fair-NAHN          Rebekah       reh-BEH-kuh
Gabrielle     ga-bree-ELL        Sebastien     se-BAS-tee-en
Humberto      oom-BAIR-toh       Tanya         TAHN-yuh
Imelda        ee-MEHL-dah        Van           van
Jerry         JEHR-ee            Wendy         WEN-dee
Karen         KAIR-ren

This is the 30th year that we are covering it! I started in 1996, before blogging was a word, or Google even existed! I never expected to still be doing this 30 years later with my friend Dave. This sometimes extremely busy website is hosted on 2 dedicated servers. They don't come cheap. So please, consider donating to keep the website going. Now you can use Venmo and Stripe as well. I lost my biggest donor this year, so it is even more needed.

Dave and I will give you Caribbean focused information again this season. We are ready. Hope the season won't be too bad, but we all know, it only takes one! Like Dave wrote yesterday, "Let's be prepared and be safe starting off." Hope everyone is ready. I also hope that the reckless chainsaw cuts by the US government to NOAA and FEMA won't affect their readiness and that, to name just a few possible effects, the Hurricane Hunters can still fly their missions, the National Hurricane Center still has the manpower to run and interpret model forecasts, and aid will still flow where it will be needed. -Gert

Saturday, May 31, 2025 18:42PM EDT - Already?

Good evening!

Welcome back to another edition of the Atlantic Hurricane Season's official start date of tomorrow, June 1st. Wow, the last 6 months of holidays and spring sure went fast.

The Pacific season, which starts mid May, already has had their first named system, TS Alvin. As he degrades on his northward trek, he will be bringing a lot of moisture to the desert southwest helping alleviate some drought stricken areas while causing some issues down the road later on.

Meanwhile, closer to home here in the Atlantic, the forecasts are for an above average season again. Time will tell though as it's a 6 month forecast and as stated back about 20 years ago, it only takes one. While nothing has formed in the GM or the Atlantic Basin in the month of May, (not unusual) be wary of months to come. Please get prepared if you haven't started already and do not wait until a named storm is on its way to your locale. Long lines, higher prices and shortness of time will be problematic if you wait till the last minute. Not to mention you might not get what you need which you should have purchased a month ago preparation wise.

Currently while the SST (sea surface temperatures) are warm enough to sustain a tropical system, the other factors say no way jose. There are hostile upper level winds wind shearing everything east of the Windwards and 1/8 of the Saharan Desert it seems is in the air over the whole Atlantic hurricane basin preventing practically any imminent or in the near future tropical development.

We all know what we are looking forward to. Let's be prepared and be safe starting off.

Dave

Friday, April 4, 2025 16:25PM PDT - Another active season?
Last year an extremely active season was forecasted, in the end we had 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes of which 5 were major hurricanes. Quite active, but not as extreme as feared. There were 2 category 5 hurricanes (Beryl and Mylton), something that doesn't happen that often. Beryl was by far the most unusual, for all the wrong reasons, very early in the season, formed far east in the Atlantic, went pretty far south, fast intensification, etc... Overall Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the season was 162 (123 is 'normal'). Three names were retired, Beryl (no surprise), Helene and Milton. In 2030 they will be replaced with Brianna, Holly and Miguel.

This year might be a repeat... A few days ago the forecasters at Colorado State issued their first seasonal forecast. The team let by Phil Klotzbach anticipates 17 named storms (14.4 is normal), 9 hurricanes (7.2 is normal) of which 4 might become major ones (3.2 is normal), with an overall ACE value of 155 (26% above average). The probability for at least one major hurricane traveling through the Caribbean (a big area) is 56% (average is 47%).

The main reasons for the above normal season is the absence of El Nino conditions, above normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic (though not as crazy warm as last year). One note about this early forecast, this early season forecast doesn't have much 'skill', so don't get too anxious about it. But as we all know, it only takes one..., but hopefully we won't have a big one like Beryl last year and that we have a lot of 'fish' storms. We all know that you can reduce your risk of harm by preparations. Now would be a good time to check your hurricane shutters or invest in hurricane proof glass, etc. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Jun 15 23:33]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jun 15 6:06]
- St.Thomas [Jun 14 6:56]
- Dominican Republic [Jun 10 16:23]
- Barbados [Jun 10 12:37]
- Nevis [Jun 1 20:04]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jun 1 7:53]
- Antigua [May 22 11:18]
- St.Lucia [May 13 14:51]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [May 13 8:49]
- Saba [May 9 11:44]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- Michael Lowry's Blog
- zoom.earth hurricane tracker
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert