Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (22:20 UTC, 14 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Friday, June 4, 2021 16:26PM PDT - New forecast calls for above average season

Today Klotzbach et al. at Colorado State University came out with their updated forecast for the 2021 season. They still expect an above average season with 17 named storms (=18 total, Ana included). Normal (last 30 year average) is 14.4 storms. They expect 8 hurricanes (7.2 is normal), of which 4 might become major ones (3.2 is normal).

The "net tropical cyclone activity", a measure of the average seasonal mean of number of storms and number of storm days, is 158%. Normal (1950-2000) is 100%, though 'new' normal (1991-2020) is 135%. So this season is about 17% more active than the 'new' normal. The chance of one or more major hurricane passing anywhere through the whole Caribbean (a large area) is 58% (average for last century (another 'normal') is 42%). As I wrote earlier, main factors of the above average season are the neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions.

New this year are the 'tropical cyclone impact probabilities', basically the chance of one or more storms passing by you within 50 miles. They report location not only in the US but also in the Caribbean. Below a list of islands/regions showing the probability of >10% of a major hurricane passing within 50 miles and the long term mean (1851-2019). Note that it is a bit biased for the larger islands, since the bigger you are the higher the chance.

  Island/Region           2021 'normal'
  The Bahamas              40%  27%
  Cuba                     33%  22%
  Mexico                   24%  16%
  Dominican Republic       23%  15%
  Bermuda                  16%  10%
  Turks and Caicos         16%  10%
  UK Virgin Islands        16%  11%
  Puerto Rico              15%  10%
  Anguilla                 14%   9%
  Antigua and Barbuda      14%   9%
  Haiti                    13%   8%
  Saint Kitts and Nevis    13%   8%
  US Virgin Islands        13%   8%
  Honduras                 12%   8%
  Montserrat               12%   7%
  Saint Martin             12%   8%
  Sint Eustatius           12%   7%
  Sint Maarten             12%   7%
  Jamaica                  11%   7%
  Cayman Islands           10%   6%
  Dominica                 10%   6%
  Guadeloupe               10%   6%
  Saba                     10%   6%

A full list (and more statistics) can be found here (scroll down to the end of the table for Caribbean locations). The complete hurricane forecast can be found at tropical.colostate.edu. The next one will come out July 8. -Gert

Wednesday, June 2, 2021 07:26AM EDT - It's here!

Good morning everyone,

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is upon us as if we need more trials and tribulations this year but at least we were aware this was coming. Awareness that should lead to preparedness and knowledge which are the keys to minimizing the potential impact(s) of a storm hit and quite possibly survival.

As Gert explained, we are in for another above average season with most all indicators and forecast models in agreement, continuing the past 20 years trend of activity. As he also noted, despite that anticipated amount of activity, it only takes one to land in your backyard with potentially disastrous results.

Nothing is expected in the near 5 day term tropical formation wise which is "normal" for this time of the season. The fuel for these tropical engines is warm to bathwater SST's and they are on the rise. The Western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, two early and late season traditional breeding grounds, are already more than warm enough for activity to brew, as are a few areas off the east coast of Florida and the Bahamas.

So, with a known entity and the know-how/tools to mitigate it's attack and effects we can effectively "ride out the storm" in our best way possible. That doesn't mean nothing will happen to you personally and you will not suffer losses as even the best of preparedness can be overcome. However, being prepared and knowledgeable will go a long way to safeguard you and your family. Property can be replaced. You and your family cannot.

Take care, stay safe, be aware and informed! Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Yes, a cliche but still the best recommendation.

Dave

Tuesday, June 1, 2021 10:00AM PDT - 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Today marks the traditional start of the hurricane season. Although lately we often seem to have a storm before the start of the season. Like this year with Ana. However, that didn't reach hurricane status, so maybe June 1 for an official start does still seem valid. The last time a hurricane formed before June 1 was in 2016 (see this list of off-season storms on Wikipedia).

A few forecasts predict an above average season. The well renowned forecasters at Colorado State University will issue theirs June 4. If there are going to be El Nino or La Nina conditions during the season is one of the most important predictors. El Nino will suppress hurricane activity and La Nina the opposite. The current ENSO forecast (El Nino/La Nina) shows that La Nina has ended, and that more neutral conditions (in between an El Nino or La Nina) will occur through August. For the period August-October (more the peak of hurricane season) they predict 50% change of neutral conditions, 42% La Nina and only 8% El Nino (see here). So more La Nina-ish than El Nino-ish, whicht means that it is highly probably that CSU will come up with an above normal forecast as well...

Regardless the forecasts, as we all know, it only takes one hurricane in your backyard to spoil your season. It is best to prepare now by getting your hurricane shutters checked out, supplies stocked, etc., instead of waiting for the last minute when there will be long lines everywhere... And being well prepared will make you feel better as well this season!

Lastly a little plug for COVID-19 vaccinations! We all want things to get back to normal, esp. welcoming back tourist, a major part of many of the islands' economy. The quickest way to get there is to get vaccinated! It is safe, 100s of millions people have already done it. It is more risky for your health to NOT get vaccinated! These mRNA vaccines are not 'new' with 'unknown' long-term effects. The same method has already been used for SARS and Zika for example. So, if you want 'everything to open back up', you can actually do something about it by getting the shot! Some more info on the CDC website and a 'fact check' on USA Today. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Saturday, May 22, 2021 13:32PM PDT - Ana

The Invest Dave was describing a couple of days ago has been upgraded to sup-tropical storm Ana. It has become pretty normal in recent years that we have the first named storm before the official start of Hurricane Season (June 1). Last year (when we had a record number of storms) we actually had 3 named storms before June 1st. Hope this year will be a bit more mellow...

But back to Ana..., it is located to the northeast of Bermuda and moving away. It is not expected to be a long lived storms due to high wind shear, dry air and lower sea surface temperatures ahead. The tropical storm watch for Bermuda has already been lifted. A good first storm to make everyone aware that hurricane season is just around the corner and that this would be a good time to start preparing for a possible threat... -Gert

Thursday, May 20, 2021 11:28AM EDT - First Invest 90L 2021

Good morning and hello all,

It's been a long time since I've posted, mainly due to a busy last few months but the 2021 hurricane season is upon us and it's already starting to make pre-official, start of the Atlantic Hurricane season waves.

90L has been designated for a closer look by the NHC as has been forecast in the last week or so by the long term genesis models. Located several hundred miles to the NE of Bermuda, it's forecast movement will be towards Bermuda with minimal impacts expected such as high waves, gusty winds and lashing rains but then is expected to pull back towards the NE with no threat to land masses while the shipping lanes will have a rough go.

This is not a tropical system but a potential sub tropical one with a large wind field, most thunderstorms and heavy convection displaced from the mainly cloud free "center" while being either warm or cold core. In essence, a hybrid of characteristics.

Tidbit: There is no such thing as a sub tropical hurricane for if their winds reach hurricane force, then that system would have evolved to become fully tropical.

That's it for now as breaktime is over. The first name on the board for this season is Ana. While it's a bit before the official start of the season, it's not too early to start preparations.

Be safe and prepared!

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Friday, April 9, 2021 10:27AM PDT - La Sourfriere on St.Vincent erupting

This morning La Soufriere on St.Vincent erupted, sending a 2 mile high cloud of ash up in the sky. Evacuation orders have been issued. I have asked my special hurricane correspondents on St.Vincent for some updates. Hope we get some local reports! Surrounding islands have offered to take in evacuees, of course, further complicated because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous eruptions were in 1979, 1902, 1812 and 1718, so it is not a common event. The ash of the eruption might affect some other islands as well... Wishing everyone well. -Gert

Thursday, April 8, 2021 17:11PM PDT - Above average 2021 hurricane season?

It is that time of the year again that Klotzbach et al. at Colorado State issue their forecast for the season. Again, they are calling for an above normal season with 17 tropical storms (12.1 is normal), 8 hurricanes (6.4 is average) of which 4 reaching Category 3 or higher (2.7 is normal). The probability of at least one major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean is 58% (normal is 42%). Note that this is a large area, this is not the chance that your island will get hit.

The main reasons for a potential busy season are above average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and an absence of El Nino conditions, which normally suppresses hurricane activity. So nothing to surprising. What made me look though was the 'analogue years' they picked. These are years with similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions as the current year. They picked 1996, 2001, 2008 (Ike and Paloma), 2011 and last but not least, 2017 (Irma and Maria!!!). Hope it won't be similar to 2017! Number of storms doesn't say it all, you only need one to spoil your whole season, and last year we had 30 named storms with not much affect on us... In any case.., now is a good time to prepare, hurricane season starts in less than 2 months! -Gert

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