2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season | | Andrea | Barry | Chantal | Dexter | Erin | Fernand | Gabrielle | Humberto | Imelda | Jerry | Karen | Lorenzo | Melissa | Nestor | Olga | Pablo | Rebekah | Sebastien | Tanya | Van | Wendy | |
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Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
![[GOES-EAST https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/]](https://img.stormcarib.com/hurrir.jpg)
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (08:00 UTC, 12 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)
Thursday, July 10, 2025 13:24PM PDT - New forecast
- Chantal came and went. The winds weren't too bad, but Chantal dropped 7-8 inch rain locally in North Carolina, so lots of flooding. Unfortunately, five people are confirmed dead.
On another note, researchers at Colorado State issued their July forecast. A bit of good news, they think it might be a little less active than previously forecasted, with 16 tropical storms (was 17 in June, 14.4 is normal). We had 3 already, so 13 more to go. They also predict one less hurricane (8, was 9, normal is 7.2) and one less major hurricane (3, was 4, normal is 3.2). Total storm activity calculated as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was also decreased from 155 to 140 (123 is normal). Chance of one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (a big area) is 53% (was 56%, normal is 47%).
Main reasons for lowering the forecast are the expected higher levels of vertical wind shear in the Caribbean, which normally leads to a less active season. However, other predictors, like sea surface temperatures are still pointing to a very active season. Also, I am not sure how the higher vertical wind shear in the Caribbean protects the islands on the eastern island chain from say Cape Verde storms. But luckily it does look that the higher shear zone extends somewhat eastward into the Atlantic, so maybe hurricanes would weaken a bit when they approach the islands.
In other news, Michael Lowry (a Hurricane Specialist & Storm Surge Expert at WPLG-TV in Miami) posted on his Eye on the Tropics-blog an article titled: Top Hurricane Scientists Sound the Alarm on Looming NOAA Cuts. One of the points is that cuts at AOML, that houses the Hurricane Research Division would decrease the hurricane forecasting accuracy by 20-40%, which would add $10 billion in hurricane related cost per hurricane season. AOML's annual budget is around $20 million, which is only 0.2% of $10 billion. Seems like a good investment, not even accounting for increased fatalities. It does not make sense to me. So frustrating. -Gert
Saturday, July 5, 2025 17:50PM EDT
- TS Chantal
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The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has had a slow start like harness racing, most fortunately , while the Eastern Pacific has taken off like the Triple Crown, Hurricane Erik included. That will most likely change and the Atlantic will catch up to speed as we head into the 6th week of the Atlantic season.
Homegrown systems are the norm in the first 2 months and the last month of the official hurricane season and so far, unlike Hurricane Beryl, last year's biggest anomaly, the same is true. But now, we have TS Chantal. Plus an interesting wave just off the African coast.
TS Chantal, not a threat to the Caribbean, should make landfall overnight tonight into South Carolina. As Gert alluded to in his previous post, while Chantal is not expected to get above midgrade TS status due to wind shear which is diminishing and dry air intrusion taking its place, being over those very warm gulf stream waters could lend a helping hand to a higher than mid level TS strength at landfall. Just a possibility.
Regardless, or irregardless as I like to poke the bear, Chantal will bring heavy rains between 2-6 inches (local spots maybe more) depending on forward speed and topography plus gusty winds with some flash flooding, downed vegetation, power losses, and some structural damage before degrading rapidly Monday into North Carolina.
With most of lopsided Chantal's vigorous energy focused on her north eastern side, at this time, at landfall, her full effect will be focused head on. Her southern end will receive minimal effects, still though, not to be ignored.
To the east, a wave just off the African coast has caught some attention. Saharan Dust has been most prevalent, as usual this time of year and our major protector in the Caribbean while high level wind shear moving towards the NE off of South America's northern coast heading towards the Eastern Caribbean islands adds an additional layer of protection. Dried out air and wind shear mean usual doom for incoming systems trying to make a name for themselves. However, not always. A few have managed to buck the system.
Hence, never take any of the tropics for granted. Always expect the unexpected. It happens. Stay safe and prepared.
Dave
Saturday, July 5, 2025 11:40AM PDT - Chantal
- This morning Invest 92L was upgraded to tropical depression Chantal. It is currently drifting slowly north about 170 miles to the east of Brunswick, Georgia. It will be a short lived storm since it is expected to make landfall tomorrow close to Georgetown, South Carolina (in between Charleston and Myrtle Beach). However, when I look at the current satellite images, the center of Chantal is well to east of the forecasted track. So I think it will make landfall closer to Myrtle Beach then currently forecasted. Esp. people on the east (north/right) side of the track should pay close attention. For your convenience, I have added cities along the US East Coast to the closest point of approach-calculator, there is an option to overlay the latest satellite image so you can see it for yourself.
Although Chantal is 'just' a tropical storm and relative close to the coast, don't underestimate it. The temperature of the Gulf Stream is quite high, and additional strengthening is forecasted. Right now it doesn't look like it will become a hurricane but we have seen 'unexpected' rapid intensification happen when storms are close to the coast and above warm water. Major hazards will be the wind and the rainfall, which can cause flooding. Stay safe everybody. -Gert
Saturday, June 28, 2025 09:32AM EDT
- 91L
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Good morning all,
I hope and trust all is well as can be with everyone. Having broken 5 ribs a week ago has put a crimp in many things I do so needless to say I haven't been up to speed lately.
The first short lived fish storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, Andrea, was, as Gert shared, a storm we like, is no longer,but a fleeting memory of the start to this season. Still, a wake up call for what lies ahead. Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific has been almost over active as their historical season starts 2 weeks, mid May, before the Atlantic officially begins.
Now we have 91L in the Bay of Campeche headed for a collision with the SE coast of Mexico while drenching flooding rains fall on Belize and Guatemala. Will it have the time to realize a named storm which would be next in line Barry? Possibly, but it has a short lifespan to make it happen. With the ultra warm waters and limited wind shear, it does have a good possibility to rapidly intensify from invest to a named entity. Time will tell. Regardless,heavy rains and flash flooding will be its legacy, no matter if it realizes a name or not.
Looking towards the east, we will have a few early season waves approach but with the hostile upper level wind shear and heavy effects of the Saharan Dust Layer, chances are quite low of anything tropical developing anytime soon. However, do not let that deceive you as some waves have overcome the odds like this and manifested themselves into tropical entities.
The mantra, stay safe and prepared. Have a good weekend.
Dave
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 08:48AM PDT - Andrea
- As I alluded to yesterday, Invest 90L has become the first tropical storm of the season, Andrea. It is far away from us (950 miles to the northeast of Bermuda, and about 1500 miles from the islands) and moving away. Also, Andrea will be short lived since it awaits colder sea surface temperatures and high wind shear. It might not even last a day. One down, we like these storms.
On a separate note, today the website part that is hosted on one of the dedicated servers will be migrated to a 'new generation' server by my excellent web host pairNetworks, so it will be down for hopefully not too long. -Gert
Monday, June 23, 2025 16:00PM PDT - Some action?
- Our first invest this year! Luckily it is in the subtropical Atlantic, over 600 miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. If it develops into something , it won't affect us in the Caribbean. It is nice to have a slow start of hurricane season. Last year around this time a tropical wave came off the African coast and became Hurricane Beryl, making landfall on Carriacou July 1st with 140 mph winds! -Gert
... Older discussions >>
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Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC): |
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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located offshore the Atlantic coast of
northern Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
across portions of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas and adjacent
Atlantic waters. This system is forecast to move westward across
Florida during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by
late Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear favorable enough to
support some gradual development of this system while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the northeastern and
north-central portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part
of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could
produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the
north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
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More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image |
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Latest local updates from the special hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Jul 13 21:21]
- St.Thomas [Jul 13 8:40]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Jul 9 7:39]
- Barbados [Jul 6 19:03]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jul 6 12:43]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jul 5 15:25]
- Nevis [Jul 1 14:39]
- Antigua [Jun 29 7:49]
- Dominican Republic [Jun 10 16:23]
- St.Lucia [May 13 14:51]
- Saba [May 9 11:44]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- Michael Lowry's Blog
- zoom.earth hurricane tracker
- more...
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide
Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x
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