Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good afternoon,

Sorry for the late post but took family on a trip to the Everglades for a birthday airboat adventure with a few alligators and other wildlife in attendance and a big check off of my stepdaughters bucket list. Thought I could squeeze a post in last night but tired eyes were not willing.

Anyway, looks like the formidable combo of wind shear and Saharan Dust were a deeply negative factor in the potential formation of 92L with 94L close behind getting the same treatment and hanging on by the proverbial thread. We also had short lived TS Cristobal in the central Atlantic who fit the criteria and that was/is his legacy, at least for the next 6 years. The dust may have been one thing but if not for the wind shear, our 92L/94L systems would probably have had 2 different outcomes by the time they reached the Greater and Lesser Antilles. The silver lining though is some beneficial rains will fall but definitely not enough to cure the drought across the islands at hand. Now, down the road though.....maybe a different, not so welcome scenario.

As we trend into late August and the traditionally evil month of September, the African wave train is ramping up on cue. Several waves are making their way for a meeting with the Atlantic and the threats to their existence, while formidable, might not be impossible to overcome, obviously if circumstances come together which is a possibility.

With this said, vigilance and preparedness are keys. Complacency is not. About 83% of the traditional Atlantic hurricane season remains. The most active part. There will always be a sneaky threat. Plus, again, homegrown as in the GOMEX/GOA and the east coast are ripe for the pickings with little time for last minute preparation and evacuation if necessary.

Stay safe, prepared and ever vigilant.

Dave

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): Satellite-wind data indicate that the low-level circulation remains broad in association with an area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for further development, but this system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm through Tuesday while it moves northward and north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. By Wednesday, the low is forecast to move over cold waters, ending its formation chances. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure is centered a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde islands and is accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

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