Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good evening, While the Eastern Pacific is rife with action and Hawaii taking the brunt of most of that action, the Atlantic, GOM/GOA and Caribbean Sea have been experiencing a welcome dormant scenario so far this 2026 Atlantic hurricane season which we all in this region appreciate. This is due to the strengthening El Nino producing prolific wind shear, cooler than average Atlantic SST's, and our favorite protector, the good old reliable, and omnipresent Saharan Dust Layer. The downside to all these factors is a persistent drought from the mid Windwards up to the Greater Antilles. Puerto Rico is especially bereft of Agua aka water with rationing in effect for almost 1/2 million residents.The DR, US and British Virgins along with Antigua and the rest of the Leewards are experiencing drought in various phases. The lower Windwards have been the beneficiaries of low riding waves, just below the Saharan Dust reach and out of the claws of the wind shear. However, this is about to "possibly" change but not end the drought in the northeastern sector completely. TS Dolly, materializing right after Dolly Partons passing, which, while a major coincidence, is not a planned name event as names for storms are recycled every 6 years. The timing is impeccable I must say. I also hope TS Dolly is as gentle and generous with rain only as Dolly Parton was with her love of humanity and philanthropy. Currently Dolly has a chance to slightly strengthen but that window is closing rapidly as wind shear and dry air are conspiring to instigate her demise before she reaches the Lesser Antilles. However, there will be residual effects as in possible flash flooding due to the hard packed, drought ridden grounds and steep terrain, coastal flooding, rip currents, intermittent power outages which happen anyway, and high offshore seas. Models are in good agreement as to the track although a slight deviation to the north will lessen all the above effects while a deviation to the south will enhance said effects. A stronger system will recurve before the islands due to the steering currents and the strength of the system but Dolly is expected to weaken upon approach, possibly back into a strong tropical wave. Thank you dust and wind shear. Dolly could still exceed expectations so please, prepare regardless. Weather is an inexact science and we have seen previous systems overcome the obvious obstacles, over achieve, and surprise. Err on the side of caution. After passing the islands, regenesis is a small possibility due to less wind shear and dust plus warmer SST's. Just something for the Turks and Caicos, Bahamas and Florida to be aware of. Depends on her strength upon exiting the NE islands. Behind Dolly, there are waves lined up, per usual at this time of year. There are a couple who bode a vigilant eye, with the next one on the list. Dolly has paved the way, albeit slightly by moistening up the environment so time will tell. Stay safe, prepared and vigilant. There's a lot of season left and the meat of the season is at hand. Dave

Good afternoon,

Sorry for the late post but took family on a trip to the Everglades for a birthday airboat adventure with a few alligators and other wildlife in attendance and a big check off of my stepdaughters bucket list. Thought I could squeeze a post in last night but tired eyes were not willing.

Anyway, looks like the formidable combo of wind shear and Saharan Dust were a deeply negative factor in the potential formation of 92L with 94L close behind getting the same treatment and hanging on by the proverbial thread. We also had short lived TS Cristobal in the central Atlantic who fit the criteria and that was/is his legacy, at least for the next 6 years. The dust may have been one thing but if not for the wind shear, our 92L/94L systems would probably have had 2 different outcomes by the time they reached the Greater and Lesser Antilles. The silver lining though is some beneficial rains will fall but definitely not enough to cure the drought across the islands at hand. Now, down the road though.....maybe a different, not so welcome scenario.

As we trend into late August and the traditionally evil month of September, the African wave train is ramping up on cue. Several waves are making their way for a meeting with the Atlantic and the threats to their existence, while formidable, might not be impossible to overcome, obviously if circumstances come together which is a possibility.

With this said, vigilance and preparedness are keys. Complacency is not. About 83% of the traditional Atlantic hurricane season remains. The most active part. There will always be a sneaky threat. Plus, again, homegrown as in the GOMEX/GOA and the east coast are ripe for the pickings with little time for last minute preparation and evacuation if necessary.

Stay safe, prepared and ever vigilant.

Dave

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly, located over the central tropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Hagen

- Updates from the Islands -