Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (01:20 UTC, 22 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Thursday, July 9, 2020 14:23PM PDT - Storm Number 6!

Yikes, it is only July, and here we already have storm number Six, named Fay! This is the system that travelled from the Gulf of Mexico over land and reoganized over the Atlantic, just off North Carolina. It is probably going to be a short-lived storm, moving closely along the US East Coast, possibly going over New York City. Luckily it is not expected to strengthen much, although it is currently over the warm Gulf Stream, when it goes more north Fay will be over cooler waters. Again, this storm will form no threat to us in the Caribbean.

Since it is the month of July, the below image from the climatology-section shows the storm origins (and how strong they became) for the month of July. I count about a quarter of all July storms since 1944 forming east of the Caribbean in the Atlantic, our 'danger zone', though only 5% of those became major hurricanes. Still, we have to start looking east... -Gert

- - - July Storm Origins - - -

Monday, July 6, 2020 08:59AM PDT - Edouard

Last night Tropical Depression Five was upgraded to Tropical Storm Edouard. It is currently well south of Newfoundland, yes, quite up north indeed. The storm is moving fast over the open Atlantic, and is no threat to land. It might cause some unsettling weather in Ireland or the UK later.

There are two other areas of interest, one near Florida (Gulf side) which we don't have to worry about in the Caribbean, however, it may reappear over water on the 'other side' in the Atlantic and become something. We also have a tropical wave approaching the islands down south. Although currently not forecast to develop into a depression or worth, it will bring some high winds and heavy downpours when it approaches Barbados and the islands beyond. See the satellite image above for its current location. -Gert

Saturday, July 4, 2020 10:23AM EDT - TD#5

Quick update: Advisories to be issued on TD#5 as of 11am NHC advisory.

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Saturday, July 4, 2020 10:16AM EDT - Edouard maybe already?

Good morning and Happy July 4th America!

A happy 4th it will be weatherwise for the east coast of America as well concerningÂInvest 97L but maybe not so much for Bermuda. Trekking ENE about 15 mph, 97L has about a 60% chance of development into a depression at least, with earlyÂmodel guidance suggesting a peak mid tropical storm of 55-60 mph in about 3 days.The next name on the list will be Edouard in an already early active Atlantic season. Bermuda should start receiving impacts of thunderstorms, high surf, gusty winds, and rip currents tomorrow evening while east coast impacts will be minimal in the way of higher surf and increased rip currents. Then, he will move off to visit Europe to help cool off their heat wave.

The eastern Pacific has picked up as it usually does before the Atlantic and there are several potential areas to watch but none appear to be a threatÂland wise at the moment. A note in the far Western Pacific not reallyÂtropical even for Japan but deadly and wow, what a deluge. Credit to Sayaka Mori in Japan several hours ago: 381 mm of rain fell within 6 hours translating into 2.5 inches an hour aka 15 inches in southern Kyushu. TheÂKuma River has flooded, houses have collapsed and sadly, there is a death toll.

Meanwhile, the GOM and the Caribbean, both east and west, are pretty quiet. Most of the Caribbean, especially the Eastern, could use some rain. The USVI's and BVI's are dry as a bone pretty much. Why? Our two main protectors from storm formation, wind shear and that seemingly omnipresent, drying out the atmosphere Saharan Dust, have been very active so far but as we well know, these will falter as we approach the peak of season, mid August to mid October. With SST's very warm already (the fuel of the storm), wind shear falling, the Saharan Dust level diminishing, and the absence of El Nino in the Pacific, it still looks like an active season ahead. It also looks like some decent rains will start to arrive soon and so will the double edged sword.

Preparation and knowledge is the key to protection of life and property. The property can be replaced. You cannot. Remember, it only takes one. Not 15.

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Monday, June 22, 2020 18:39PM PDT - Dust and TD#4

We have a major Saharan dust event underway on the islands and it is the Talk of the Town. Check out the pictures posted by the special hurricane correspondents on the right. Also see the 'true-color' satellite image below, clearly showing dust over the islands. And it looks like more is on the way later this week! A good source to see images of the Saharan Air Layer is at http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/ (the below image is cropped from the GOES-16 Natural Color one).

Dust is actually good for suppressing hurricanes. It is still a bit early for the Atlantic Cape Verde storms, so hopefully we get some more dust later. Although, dust is not good for people with allergies and/or respiratory illnesses, as Barabar on St.Maarten noted... Nevertheless, Tropical Depression Four just formed in the Atlantic, albeit well north of it, off Cape Cod. It might become a named storm, but it will be of no threat to (is)land (incl. Bermuda). -Gert

Dust over the Islands - 6/22/2020 [tropic.ssec.wisc.edu]

Saturday, June 6, 2020 16:59PM EDT - Cristobal plus

Good afternoon all,

It's highly unusual to find a cone of uncertainty that stretchesÂfrom the GOM all the way well into Canada but that is what TS Cristobals is and continues to be. Heck, the 5 day cone shows Cristobal still a depression over the UP of Michigan! Again highly unlikely but wow how this guy will continue to ramble on well after landfall probably as a very strong system through Canada and the Great Lakes.

First things first though, the Atlantic and the Caribbean. East to NE of Bermuda, a low pressure system could form but it's chances are slim at this time. If it does, it would most likely move NW or WNW which could make things interesting for the NE or Canadian Maritimes. If it does reach named storm status, it would become Dolly. Will Dolly meet up with Cristobal if this scenario plays out? That would be a very interestingÂsituation. However, remote for now.

The rest of the Atlantic and Caribbean are pretty quiet. A few tropical waves are marching across the MDR or Main Development Region of the Atlantic but we don't usually look for much development in this area at this time of year. SST's are running warmer than usual and wind shear is moderate but Saharan Dust is ever present, stifling any early season attempt. The only wave that has any attention is the one that just splashed down off the African coast but that one's main hindrance is it's proximity to the ITCZ or Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Until it escapes to over 10 degrees north, it has minimal chance of doing anything.

Cristobal is poised to become the second land falling named storm of this very early active season. TS Arthur did not make an actual landfall as it's COC or center of circulation did not touch the Outer Banks, coming within about 20 miles of. Cristobal will be dangerous whether a high end tropical storm or a Cat 1 hurricane, which is entirely possible. It has some work to do wants to achieve that rare event in June. It has to seal off the western side from dry air intrusion, slow down a bit in order to consolidate it COC and bring it's windfieldÂin closer to the core. Cristobal is massive so rapid strengthening is remote. Even when the pressures drop, it is so big the wind field might not have time to catch up.Â

That said, Cristobal has a chance for strengthening overnight before land fallÂon Sunday. Whether it does or not, storm surge, rip currents, heavy rain and flooding along with tornadoes are on his menu. It is not a polite menu either. This is not Sunday Brunch. Please evacuate if told too. The effects of this system will be felt over a very large area and will continue to be for days to come.

Preparation and common sense are keys to survival and the aftermath.

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Tuesday, June 2, 2020 09:43AM PDT - Cristobal

Tropical Depression 3 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cristobal. This is the first time ever (=since 1851) that 3 named storms have formed this early. 2016 was close, with the third storm forming June 5, and in 2012 the third storm formed on June 17. Don't be fooled, this is a very dangerous storm. Because it is hardly moving it will cause prolonged periods of torrential rainfall in Mexico and Central America. There already have been deaths reported due to flooding in Guatemala and El Salvador. It doesn't look like it will start moving out of the area until Friday... I have shifted the satellite image above a bit more to the west to get a better view at this storm. -Gert

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