Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Arlene | Bret | Cindy | Don | Emily | Franklin | Gert | Harold | Idalia | Jose | Katia | Lee | Margot | Nigel | Ophelia | Philippe | Rina | Sean | Tammy | Vince | Whitney |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (00:40 UTC, 17 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Saturday, December 23, 2023 10:16AM EST - Holidays

Seasons Greetings all,

I'd like to take this moment to wish you all a very Happy Holidays as there are several for all walks of life in the next few weeks here in the all encompassing region of the Caribbean from The Greater Antilles, The Lesser Antilles, South America and Central America along with Bermuda, The Bahamas and The Turks and Caicos.

May this holiday season bring you joy, peace, no drama, love and family togetherness with a look forward to a safe, prosperous, peaceful and no destructive hurricanes in the New Year of 2024.

Dave


Friday, November 17, 2023 12:35PM EST - Losing Potential TC 22

Good afternoon,

Just a quick update on PTC 22 which is slowly losing that potential of a named system, (next one Vince), while increasing forward speed to 14 mph at this time about 125 miles WSW of Kingston Jamaica on a generally NE heading. That's not to say it still doesn't have a chance at Vince but it appears it needs to escape the Caribbean first with that SW wind shear and dry air intrusion attacking constantly and vigorously.

As shared previously, regardless of what this system morphs or fails to morph into, it's effects will be stretched out among several island nations with the the unfortunate possibility of more loss of life in this one weekend than we have so far during the whole season. This will be due to where the system interacts with the mountainous terrain regions in it's path of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti and the DR, which act as those old washing machines and wring out the moisture causing flash flooding, mudslides, and failure of infrastructure. Haiti with it's deforested landscape, poor infrastructure and internal political situation unable to adequately respond, will be especially vulnerable. The southern Bahamas plus the Turks & Caicos will receive heavy rains as well but the effects will be much less due to the much flatter topography.

As PTC 22 speeds along on a broad scale, there will be some effects also felt in PR and to a lesser extent the Virgin Islands but at the moment, they appear minimal at best really just affecting air travel and shipping. Later down the road Bermuda might get a dose from this system as well. It's a good thing there is any wind shear as this could have been a much different scenario.

Next week a chance of a mid Atlantic very late system may pull itself together. That will require a myriad atmospheric circumstances to come together to manifest itself so at this time, it's just a
worth a mention.

Stay safe and prepared and pray for the best for this weekends event.

Dave.

Virus-free.www.avg.com

Saturday, November 11, 2023 14:25PM EST - Late season bloomer?

Good afternoon,

First Happy Veterans/Armistice Day to all celebrants and rememberants. Probably not a real word but you get the picture. An American Holiday of support, service, memorials and gratitude.

After a nice break in the action since the hectic output between the end of August and October, a possible suspect may arise in the SW Caribbean later this upcoming week. While not all of the computer models are on board at this time, there is enough support that requires vigilance towards the end of the week and actually, earlier in the week for a few countries although not a tropical entity at that point. The waters of the central and southern Caribbean have been percolating and are ripe for the picking since being unchecked for most of the tropical season. Fuel for the fire is there.

Tuesday and Wednesday, Honduras and Nicaragua should expect heavy rainfall on their eastern sides while westerly wind shear should prevent a western shift of said rainfall. This wind shear will also possibly not allow this developing system to reach tropical named status further into the week. But that will not be the be all to end all. Jamaica, Caymans, Haiti, Eastern Cuba and the western DR are looking forward to, whether a named storm or not, to potential TS conditions with heavy rainfall, flooding, gusty winds, rough seas and surf, rip currents and definitely our usual Caribbean power outages.

An interesting point has been floated that this entity might actually take on hurricane "Wrong Way Lenny" characteristics from 1999, which at that point was the strongest November Atlantic hurricane since 1932's Cuban hurricane and now the 4th strongest in November due to it's rapid intensification just to the west of St. Croix on the 17/18th (my birthday present the 18th that year was curfew). St. Maarten/Martin. Anguilla, St. Barts, Barbuda, Antigua and as far south as Grenada felt his effects with the eye making a direct bullseye on St. Maarten/ Martin. Hopefully, we will not see his possible wrong way son, if named, Vince, pass this way in that manner.

Stay safe and prepared,

Dave.

Virus-free.www.avg.com

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. 

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 
2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical 
Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, 
Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions 
warrant.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Bonaire [Feb 28 13:01]
- St.Thomas [Feb 26 6:27]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Feb 25 13:38]
- Aruba [Feb 17 18:08]
- Barbados [Feb 11 17:37]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Feb 8 12:29]
- Saba [Feb 6 15:10]
- Anguilla [Feb 6 9:42]
- Nevis [Feb 3 13:46]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jan 25 22:04]
- St.Croix [Nov 30 23:03]
- Dominican Republic [Nov 19 22:59]
- Jamaica [Nov 16 23:29]
- Dominica [Nov 4 5:28]
- Antigua [Nov 2 14:31]
- Curaçao [Oct 31 4:42]
- Guadeloupe [Oct 22 6:24]
- Montserrat [Oct 21 19:51]
- General Update [Oct 21 18:40]
- St.Kitts [Oct 21 16:02]
- [Oct 21 15:03]
- St.Lucia [Oct 20 13:11]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 27 16:44]
- Turks & Caicos [Sep 12 21:28]
- Martinique [Jun 23 8:17]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- Michael Lowry's Blog
- zoom.earth hurricane tracker
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert