Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Ana | Bill | Claudette | Danny | Elsa | Fred | Grace | Henri | Ida | Julian | Kate | Larry | Mindy | Nicholas | Odette | Peter | Rose | Sam | Teresa | Victor | Wanda | Adria | Braylen | Caridad |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (04:20 UTC, 13 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

94L Invest:

Tuesday, October 12, 2021 20:38PM EDT - October Poof (But we are lucky)

Good evening,

The October swoon continues as unpredicted as the activity for the month is lagging far behind what was previously forecast. This is due to a lack of instability in the Atlantic, a Saharan Dust season lasting longer than expected, volcanic ash from the La Palma volcanic eruption contributing to the excess of dry air expected, and wind shear which is stronger than projected by a long shot.

The wide mess north of the DR stretching from Puerto Rico to eastern Cuba is courtesy of an upper level low centered over Cuba and is not expected to develop due mainly to high wind shear. It did however create some moderate turbulence on my flight this morning from Miami to St. Thomas. The tail end of this trough stretches to Panama and Columbia where down the road a few models show possible development.

93L has gone Poof. At least for now. Dry air had a modest role in 93L's lack of development and timely demise but again, high wind shear basically tore it apart as it made its way towards the northern Antilles and Puerto Rico. We are lucky with this one as on it's projected path and potential development without wind shear, we probably would be staring a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane in the eye from Dominica northward to Puerto Rico. As it remains, it is still a strong system with plenty of rain, Tstorms, gusty winds and rough seas to offer the islands. I watched tstorms over the BVI's earlier with a decent amount of lightning but the bulk will come this way overnight and into tomorrow.

Off to the east a few later in the season waves are crossing the MDR with the one near 48W showing some promise but the north end of the wave is eating dust which is killing the rest of it from showing promise and the one around 27W has not caught any attention from the models or the NHC.

On a Pacific note, tropical storm Pamela definitely has not lived up to her potential which is good news for Mexico but expected to create flooding problems in Texas after landfall, maybe as a hurricane tomorrow morning. Once again, dry air ingestion was her main demise as she had everything else going for her.

Stay safe, vigilant and prepared. We still have a ways to go.

Dave

Monday, October 11, 2021 16:27PM PDT - Two waves
Currently we have two invests, both having a slim chance to develop into something. However, both can still produce bad weather for us. The closest one is currently over the Dominican Republic and Haiti and will cause some locally heavy rainfall in the area. It is moving to the north, toward the Turks & Caicos. The second one is about 200 miles to the east of us and also cause some gusty weather over the Lesser Antilles over the next day or so. The wave is spreading over a pretty large area, so gusty conditions and rainfall will be widespread. There are two more waves further out in the Atlantic. The one closest to us (half way) is not expected to become anything, and the other one just rolled off Africa. We'll see what happens with that one... -Gert

Tuesday, October 5, 2021 18:04PM EDT - Calm before......?

Good afternoon,

After an interesting September watching long lived, slo-mo major hurricane Sam who gave the Caribbean a scare, the US East coast a blink of the eye, and Bermuda the brush off, the tropics have "chilled out" for the moment. Hey, for 7 and 3/4 days Sam loitered over the Atlantic Basin just biding his time as a major hurricane, but all dressed up and nowhere to deviate and destroy, he will be remembered only in the annals of meteorological data, video and pictures as that small, fierce hurricane that captured the attention of most who he should have while not doing the damage and destruction he could have if trolling 9 mph over land.

The remnants of 91L still slowly move west through the central Atlantic and should bring some needed rains to the Windward Islands having avoided short lived TS Victor's tentacles, whose demise was accurately forecast even if his eventual strength was not. Saharan Dust is usually not this prevalent this late in the hurricane season but a look at the dust map says otherwise. Down the road, these remnants might get their mojo going in the central Caribbean where conditions will be like ripe mangoes. Time as usual will tell. Wind shear will have a say though.

The disturbance around the eastern Bahamas doesn't have much time nor favorable conditions but will bring squally weather to the Carolinas, the rest of the Bahamas, T&C plus rip currents and surf. King Tides are ready for Oct 6th and this disturbance will surely enhance their effects along the low lying areas of the coast including flood prone areas along the Carolina coast like Charleston.

The calm before the storm maybe. We still have 2 months of official hurricane season left. October has been a notorious month previously and could be this year as well. Most indicators favor an active mid October.

Stay safe, vigilant and prepared!

Dave.

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A deepening, non-tropical low pressure system with gale-force winds 
is located a little more than 100 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, 
North Carolina.  This gale area is forecast to move 
north-northeastward for the next day or so, and could acquire some 
subtropical characteristics before it merges with a frontal system 
by late Tuesday. The extratropical low is then expected to meander 
off the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coasts on Wednesday, 
bringing rain and wind impacts to portions of those areas.  By 
midweek the low is expected to move eastward away from the U.S. 
coast, and could again acquire some subtropical characteristics by 
the end of the week while it moves eastward or southeastward over 
the warmer waters of the central Atlantic.  For more information on 
this system, including storm warnings, see products issued by your 
local National Weather Service office and High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Oct 25 23:57]
- St.Thomas [Oct 24 8:37]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Oct 20 12:02]
- Dominica [Oct 11 23:00]
- Barbados [Oct 9 21:38]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Oct 9 13:23]
- Nevis [Oct 2 20:39]
- Antigua [Sep 27 9:06]
- Grenada [Sep 26 12:37]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 20 7:29]
- St.Lucia [Sep 19 17:44]
- Bermuda [Sep 7 23:54]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 27 7:18]
- Jamaica [Aug 26 22:13]
- Haiti [Aug 18 13:06]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 16 10:33]
- Guadeloupe [Aug 15 19:13]
- Montserrat [Aug 10 20:01]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 9 10:35]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Jul 2 13:19]
- Bonaire [May 19 14:20]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert