Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Peter, Tropical Depression Seventeen
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (16:10 UTC, 13 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Friday, September 17, 2021 14:38PM EDT - Double trouble?

Good afternoon,

96L and 95L both are lingering around just waiting for their chance to get named and it still looks like they will be in the coming days after playing with everyones mind on when and how strong when the potential has been there all along making for some nervousness along the east coast and the NE Caribbean.

96L will affect the Caribbean the least while running out of time along the east coast NE of the Outer Banks. Potential still to be named but short lived with that moniker as cooler waters and increased wind shear will end that run. Still, it will menace Newfoundland like it's predecessor except not as harshly, and then possibly pull a Nicholas and lose his friendship with the steering currents thus left languishing south of Newfoundland with no particular place to go.

95L, on the other hand, does have the attention of the Caribbean, the east coast, and if it remains weak enough, the Gulf of Mexico. Trying to get it's act together even though it's had a pretty favorable environment to do so already and hasn't, 95L looks a bit better today via satellite and could still reach TD status shortly. It seems to be trying to close off a low level circulation near 14N 44W as of this looking at the satellite images. If it expects to get a name and strengthen, it better soon as an ambush of an upper level area or trough of low pressure aka TUTT is waiting for it and is expected by many to destroy it's hopes with dry air intrusion and shear. This means squally weather instead of TS force weather Monday-Tuesday for the NE Caribbean. Weaker though could spell interesting and disturbing prospects down the road for Florida and quite possible the GOMEX. Stronger, if it pushes through the TUTT would have alternative but huge implications. The first hurricane hunter mission is scheduled tentatively, if necessary, for Sunday when it gets within range.

The wave that just popped off the African coast is pegged at 20% for now with a move expected towards the NW but we've seen that before. Hopefully, this one goes where it's supposed too.

Happy Friday and stay safe, prepared and ever vigilant!

Dave.

Wednesday, September 15, 2021 05:44AM EDT - Quick update

Good morning all,

While TD Nicholas is expected to die out, in name only, between tonight and tomorrow, while continuing to deluge the south Gulf coast, the Caribbean has its eyes and an eerie feeling focused on 96L to the north of the DR and 95L, a lowrider southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

96L is still a discombobulated mess currently trying it's best to organize into something so it can menace the east coast but is having a rough go of it as it moves slowly towards the NW from the northern central Bahamas. Forecast at this moment to reach TS status and not much else, 96L will still require the east coast to pay attention, especially if the majority of the models are wrong and it doesn't get swept up out to sea.

95L, on the other hand, has already started to draw comparisons to some retired names in past devastating periods in hurricane history such as Hugo and one that hasn't been retired, Isaac. This lowrider is far enough south to avoid ingesting dry Saharan dust while taking advantage of moderate wind shear and good moisture levels in the atmosphere. On it's trek towards the Caribbean and ultimately the east coast, it will have to deal with increased wind shear from an upper level low around the northern islands which would have a detrimental effect on it's development or at least stall that development. 96L will also have a lot to say about what 95L becomes and where it will go. Originally, 95L was supposed to be a fish storm heading WNW out to sea but that's probably not happening now.

95L is either going to be hampered and taken down as that upper level low and associated wind shear protects us or, if it misses this feature, will be a major problem down the road for someone. Who that someone is is too early to accurately forecast right now but all the eastern and northern islands need to be very vigilant for a possible unwelcome visitor next week.

The wave behind it on the African coast is also forecast to develop but as a fish storm too. Thats the now forecast.

Stay safe, prepared and vigilant. Odette, Peter and Rose are soon to enter the hurricane dance.

Dave.

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