Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Ana | Bill | Claudette | Danny | Elsa | Fred | Grace | Henri | Ida | Julian | Kate | Larry | Mindy | Nicholas | Odette | Peter | Rose | Sam | Teresa | Victor | Wanda |

Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Peter, Tropical Depression Seventeen
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (16:10 UTC, 13 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Peter tools:
Seventeen tools:
95L Invest:

Consider this...
Did you know that this all volunteer website depends on donations from visitors like you? I need them to cover the expenses I incur by running the Caribbean Hurricane Network. Unfortunately, donations are well below 'normal', probably because of the COVID-19 related economic crisis on the islands. So if you love this unique website featuring original content, and you don't want it to disappear, you can show your support by visiting the donations webpage. Thank you so much! -Gert

Friday, September 17, 2021 14:38PM EDT - Double trouble?

Good afternoon,

96L and 95L both are lingering around just waiting for their chance to get named and it still looks like they will be in the coming days after playing with everyones mind on when and how strong when the potential has been there all along making for some nervousness along the east coast and the NE Caribbean.

96L will affect the Caribbean the least while running out of time along the east coast NE of the Outer Banks. Potential still to be named but short lived with that moniker as cooler waters and increased wind shear will end that run. Still, it will menace Newfoundland like it's predecessor except not as harshly, and then possibly pull a Nicholas and lose his friendship with the steering currents thus left languishing south of Newfoundland with no particular place to go.

95L, on the other hand, does have the attention of the Caribbean, the east coast, and if it remains weak enough, the Gulf of Mexico. Trying to get it's act together even though it's had a pretty favorable environment to do so already and hasn't, 95L looks a bit better today via satellite and could still reach TD status shortly. It seems to be trying to close off a low level circulation near 14N 44W as of this looking at the satellite images. If it expects to get a name and strengthen, it better soon as an ambush of an upper level area or trough of low pressure aka TUTT is waiting for it and is expected by many to destroy it's hopes with dry air intrusion and shear. This means squally weather instead of TS force weather Monday-Tuesday for the NE Caribbean. Weaker though could spell interesting and disturbing prospects down the road for Florida and quite possible the GOMEX. Stronger, if it pushes through the TUTT would have alternative but huge implications. The first hurricane hunter mission is scheduled tentatively, if necessary, for Sunday when it gets within range.

The wave that just popped off the African coast is pegged at 20% for now with a move expected towards the NW but we've seen that before. Hopefully, this one goes where it's supposed too.

Happy Friday and stay safe, prepared and ever vigilant!

Dave.


Wednesday, September 15, 2021 05:44AM EDT - Quick update

Good morning all,

While TD Nicholas is expected to die out, in name only, between tonight and tomorrow, while continuing to deluge the south Gulf coast, the Caribbean has its eyes and an eerie feeling focused on 96L to the north of the DR and 95L, a lowrider southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

96L is still a discombobulated mess currently trying it's best to organize into something so it can menace the east coast but is having a rough go of it as it moves slowly towards the NW from the northern central Bahamas. Forecast at this moment to reach TS status and not much else, 96L will still require the east coast to pay attention, especially if the majority of the models are wrong and it doesn't get swept up out to sea.

95L, on the other hand, has already started to draw comparisons to some retired names in past devastating periods in hurricane history such as Hugo and one that hasn't been retired, Isaac. This lowrider is far enough south to avoid ingesting dry Saharan dust while taking advantage of moderate wind shear and good moisture levels in the atmosphere. On it's trek towards the Caribbean and ultimately the east coast, it will have to deal with increased wind shear from an upper level low around the northern islands which would have a detrimental effect on it's development or at least stall that development. 96L will also have a lot to say about what 95L becomes and where it will go. Originally, 95L was supposed to be a fish storm heading WNW out to sea but that's probably not happening now.

95L is either going to be hampered and taken down as that upper level low and associated wind shear protects us or, if it misses this feature, will be a major problem down the road for someone. Who that someone is is too early to accurately forecast right now but all the eastern and northern islands need to be very vigilant for a possible unwelcome visitor next week.

The wave behind it on the African coast is also forecast to develop but as a fish storm too. Thats the now forecast.

Stay safe, prepared and vigilant. Odette, Peter and Rose are soon to enter the hurricane dance.

Dave.

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Peter, located several hundred miles east 
of the northernmost Leeward Islands, and on newly formed Tropical 
Depression Seventeen, located a few hundred miles southwest of the 
southernmost Cabo Verde Islands.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa 
later today or tonight. Environmental conditions appear conducive 
for gradual development thereafter as the system moves generally 
westward at about 10 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic during 
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Peter are issued under 
WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Peter are issued under 
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seventeen are issued under 
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seventeen are issued 
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Latto
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Antigua [Sep 19 12:08]
- St.Thomas [Sep 19 8:08]
- Dominica [Sep 19 0:27]
- St.Croix [Sep 18 23:50]
- Nevis [Sep 18 12:21]
- Barbados [Sep 17 11:15]
- Grenada [Sep 17 10:21]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Sep 15 19:54]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 10 6:34]
- Bermuda [Sep 7 23:54]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Sep 7 15:33]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 27 7:18]
- Jamaica [Aug 26 22:13]
- St.Lucia [Aug 23 17:47]
- Haiti [Aug 18 13:06]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 16 10:33]
- Guadeloupe [Aug 15 19:13]
- Montserrat [Aug 10 20:01]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 9 10:35]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Jul 2 13:19]
- Bonaire [May 19 14:20]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert