Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good afternoon,

Sorry for the late post but took family on a trip to the Everglades for a birthday airboat adventure with a few alligators and other wildlife in attendance and a big check off of my stepdaughters bucket list. Thought I could squeeze a post in last night but tired eyes were not willing.

Anyway, looks like the formidable combo of wind shear and Saharan Dust were a deeply negative factor in the potential formation of 92L with 94L close behind getting the same treatment and hanging on by the proverbial thread. We also had short lived TS Cristobal in the central Atlantic who fit the criteria and that was/is his legacy, at least for the next 6 years. The dust may have been one thing but if not for the wind shear, our 92L/94L systems would probably have had 2 different outcomes by the time they reached the Greater and Lesser Antilles. The silver lining though is some beneficial rains will fall but definitely not enough to cure the drought across the islands at hand. Now, down the road though.....maybe a different, not so welcome scenario.

As we trend into late August and the traditionally evil month of September, the African wave train is ramping up on cue. Several waves are making their way for a meeting with the Atlantic and the threats to their existence, while formidable, might not be impossible to overcome, obviously if circumstances come together which is a possibility.

With this said, vigilance and preparedness are keys. Complacency is not. About 83% of the traditional Atlantic hurricane season remains. The most active part. There will always be a sneaky threat. Plus, again, homegrown as in the GOMEX/GOA and the east coast are ripe for the pickings with little time for last minute preparation and evacuation if necessary.

Stay safe, prepared and ever vigilant.

Dave

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): An area of low pressure located along a tropical wave a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce showers and thunderstorms displaced southwest of its center. This activity has changed little in organization this evening, but environmental conditions remain somewhat favorable for gradual development over the next couple of days. A tropical depression is likely to form over the next day or two as the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, though environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for development by this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda is moving quickly north-northeastward at 20 to 25 mph. The system's circulation remains elongated and its associated shower and thunderstorm activity is also elongated. Environmental conditions are becoming more hostile over the system, and its chances for development are decreasing. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin

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