Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (00:50 UTC, 11 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Friday, November 17, 2023 12:35PM EST - Losing Potential TC 22

Good afternoon,

Just a quick update on PTC 22 which is slowly losing that potential of a named system, (next one Vince), while increasing forward speed to 14 mph at this time about 125 miles WSW of Kingston Jamaica on a generally NE heading. That's not to say it still doesn't have a chance at Vince but it appears it needs to escape the Caribbean first with that SW wind shear and dry air intrusion attacking constantly and vigorously.

As shared previously, regardless of what this system morphs or fails to morph into, it's effects will be stretched out among several island nations with the the unfortunate possibility of more loss of life in this one weekend than we have so far during the whole season. This will be due to where the system interacts with the mountainous terrain regions in it's path of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti and the DR, which act as those old washing machines and wring out the moisture causing flash flooding, mudslides, and failure of infrastructure. Haiti with it's deforested landscape, poor infrastructure and internal political situation unable to adequately respond, will be especially vulnerable. The southern Bahamas plus the Turks & Caicos will receive heavy rains as well but the effects will be much less due to the much flatter topography.

As PTC 22 speeds along on a broad scale, there will be some effects also felt in PR and to a lesser extent the Virgin Islands but at the moment, they appear minimal at best really just affecting air travel and shipping. Later down the road Bermuda might get a dose from this system as well. It's a good thing there is any wind shear as this could have been a much different scenario.

Next week a chance of a mid Atlantic very late system may pull itself together. That will require a myriad atmospheric circumstances to come together to manifest itself so at this time, it's just a

worth a mention.

Stay safe and prepared and pray for the best for this weekends event.

Dave.

Virus-free.www.avg.com

Saturday, November 11, 2023 14:25PM EST - Late season bloomer?

Good afternoon,

First Happy Veterans/Armistice Day to all celebrants and rememberants. Probably not a real word but you get the picture. An American Holiday of support, service, memorials and gratitude.

After a nice break in the action since the hectic output between the end of August and October, a possible suspect may arise in the SW Caribbean later this upcoming week. While not all of the computer models are on board at this time, there is enough support that requires vigilance towards the end of the week and actually, earlier in the week for a few countries although not a tropical entity at that point. The waters of the central and southern Caribbean have been percolating and are ripe for the picking since being unchecked for most of the tropical season. Fuel for the fire is there.

Tuesday and Wednesday, Honduras and Nicaragua should expect heavy rainfall on their eastern sides while westerly wind shear should prevent a western shift of said rainfall. This wind shear will also possibly not allow this developing system to reach tropical named status further into the week. But that will not be the be all to end all. Jamaica, Caymans, Haiti, Eastern Cuba and the western DR are looking forward to, whether a named storm or not, to potential TS conditions with heavy rainfall, flooding, gusty winds, rough seas and surf, rip currents and definitely our usual Caribbean power outages.

An interesting point has been floated that this entity might actually take on hurricane "Wrong Way Lenny" characteristics from 1999, which at that point was the strongest November Atlantic hurricane since 1932's Cuban hurricane and now the 4th strongest in November due to it's rapid intensification just to the west of St. Croix on the 17/18th (my birthday present the 18th that year was curfew). St. Maarten/Martin. Anguilla, St. Barts, Barbuda, Antigua and as far south as Grenada felt his effects with the eye making a direct bullseye on St. Maarten/ Martin. Hopefully, we will not see his possible wrong way son, if named, Vince, pass this way in that manner.

Stay safe and prepared,

Dave.

Virus-free.www.avg.com

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