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- Invest 94
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2024 06:31:50 -0400
Thankful models all show north turn  

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- Watching to the East
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Fri, 20 Sep 2024 20:51:28 -0400
Possibly forming over next week !   Stay alert ! 

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- Antigua stormy weather
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Fri, 13 Sep 2024 03:42:28 -0400
We have this weather on top of us now     Lots of thunderstorms and lightning! 

This is shared by Steve on Antigua weather  site      
I have been watching the small but potent area of deep convection as it 
approached us.........Had conditions been different, Invest 94 would likely 
have developed to be a tropical cyclone before it reached us, but fortunately 
that seems not to be the case, and the NHC is classifying this as a surface 
trough of low pressure.

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- Hurricane Ernesto
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Fri, 16 Aug 2024 09:05:08 -0400
HAVING JUST  GONE THRE  ERNESTO  as A STORM… very  concerned  with this   path which seems to be   OVER   BERMUDA  as it is now  a  strong  hurricane.    Thinking of  my   “ Bermuda  Family”       who also have a house     next door to me here in  ANTIGUA ….  and     pray for thier  safety and that  lives will be spared  on  Bermuda.      They should be getting  the effects   tomorrow  SATURDAY   from  this   tool on    GERTS     www.stormcarib.com     site     Thank  you GERT  FOR YOUR INFO YOU PROVIDE  US with your  site.     





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- Antigua and Barbuda Update 4:40 PM
  • By Linda Toth <ltothtravels at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2024 16:40:14 -0400
Adios Ernesto!

Just as quickly as Ernesto arrived, he left. The sun is trying to peek out once again and all reports are indicating that we are in the clear. 
Patio furniture and plants are back on the deck and sandbags removed.
Flights are back on track and the airport has re-opened. 

We were very fortunate with this Tropical Storm. Ernesto has moved north of us and will soon become a hurricane. 
Again, time has been utilized well with preparing  residents with instructions on securing their homes and opening up shelters for the less fortunate.
Wishing everyone in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico safety as they brace for Ernesto's impact.

Linda Toth, Jolly Harbour, Antigua and Barbuda

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- 9:15 AM Update from Jolly Harbour Antigua and Barbuda
  • By Linda Toth <ltothtravels at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2024 09:31:13 -0400
Tropical Storm Ernesto is upon us now. Our airport here, VC Bird,  wisely closed last night and will re-open again today at 3 pm, weather permitting. 
As the storm approached we lost power at 8:45 am and it was just restored now at 9:15 am,  as I am writing this report.

The air temperature has dropped several degrees celsius down to 26 and the wind is gusting at 48 km/hour. With a good view point from our deck on the harbour I can see neighbours have prudently removed plants, patio furniture etc from their decks and hurricane shutters are up.

At times visibility is reduced and when I look to the right I can no longer see the iconic Sleeping Indian hills, a popular landmark here in Jolly Harbour.

We know from watching current and detailed reports that we will be experiencing more weather like this over the next few hours. Following the protocols that were provided to us will keep us safe and dry. 
Linda Toth

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- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO early morning Tuesday
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2024 06:52:50 -0400

EARLY MORNING  STORM ERNESTO  STATUS 

After a  stormy night    I am   waking up early  to be thankful  STORM ERNESTO has  stayed SOUTH of  ANTIGUA, unlike predicted  that it would  be closer to  us.  As  can be seen here it is  DIRECTLY over  Guadeloupe  and remains  16.1  N ( Antigua is  17.1 N )    Seems the closest  it will come will be  around   46 miles to the south.   But  as can be seen in the photos  and the heavy clouds there is still a lot of  clouds to pass over  and more rain is expected  so all should take care to remain in a safe location.    We have not lost  electricity  at all,  thankfully.    Hopefully those in the  path of  this storm will not face a strong hurricane.   


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- Storm Ernesto
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Mon, 12 Aug 2024 20:07:06 -0400
Officially storm Ernesto now and  we made the decision to put up hurricane 
shutters!!  Mainly to stop rain flooding the house but also gusts as we are 
perched on a 212 foot hill so wind can be heavy!    Dragged in my window  
flower boxes as the predicted heavy rains would probably be the end of them !  
Our airport closed for the night and  the system has moved a bit closer to 
Antigua but thankfully still not a hurricane.   Meant to be lots of rain over 
the next 24 hours.  Keep safe !

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- Update From Jolly Harbour, Antigua and Barbuda 2:15 PM
  • By Linda Toth <ltothtravels at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 12 Aug 2024 14:25:49 -0400
Good afternoon from Jolly Harbour, Antigua.

We are watching closely as Cyclone 5, soon to officially become Tropical Storm Ernesto, approaches our Leeward Islands.
Being prepared for storms and hurricanes is vital and we are taking the time now to do so. We have all been informed to move vehicles to higher ground, put sandbags up against our doors and close the hurricane shutters tonight before sunset. We were also told that we may experience power outages, flash flooding and mudslides. Many of the boats here have been removed from the harbour and placed in the dockyard for safe keeping. 

At the time I write this update, the storm is approximately 360 miles east southeast of Antigua and Barbuda. The sun is shining here in the harbour with a gentle warm breeze. This is the calm before the storm, giving us time to prepare.
Living in the Caribbean we understand that weather can change quickly and we see from the spaghetti models that we will be in Ernesto's path, however, the good news is that it will leave quickly turning north.

This afternoon Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated and determined that tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall in the Leeward islands are expected either late tonight or early Tuesday morning. The job of a NOAA Hurricane Hunter pilot impacts the day to day lives of people like us. The most accurate information about a storm is found within the storm itself. This information dictates how people prepare to ride out  a storm or whether people evacuate and businesses close. This can ultimately save lives and millions of dollars in property.

Preparedness and staying calm is key in times like these.
Stay safe everyone, 
Linda Toth

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- Antigua Barbuda update
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2024 18:39:31 -0400

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- AL 98. Weather !!
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2024 14:02:57 -0400
Download Attachment
Available until Sep 10, 2024
WE in the  leeward  islands are   closely  watching this    and   the HURRICANE HUNTERS.  WILL FLY THE SYSTEM SOON  WHICH  GIVES US  MUCH BETTER  INFORMATION.         We just pulled our boat 🛶 out. In case !!!   





000
NOUS42 KNHC 111736
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0135 PM EDT SUN 11 AUGUST 2024
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z AUGUST 2024
         TCPOD NUMBER.....24-072 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES - AL98)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74          FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
       A. 12/1730Z                   A. 13/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE        B. NOAA2 0305A CYCLONE
       C. 12/1430Z                   C. 12/2045Z
       D. 15.0N 55.0W                D. 15.4N 57.1W
       E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2030Z       E. 12/2100Z TO 13/0245Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
       G. FIX                        G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
       H. WRA ACTIVATION             H. WRA ACTIVATION

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75        FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 43
       A. 12/2330Z,13/0530Z          A. 13/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE        B. NOAA3 0505A CYCLONE  (CORR)
       C. 12/2045Z                   C. 13/0830Z
       D. 15.4N 57.0W                D. 16.3N 60.8W
       E. 12/2300Z TO 13/0530Z       E. 13/0900Z TO 13/1300Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
       G. FIX                        G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
       H. WRA ACTIVATION             H. WRA ACTIVATION

       FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 76
       A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
       C. 13/0930Z
       D. 16.3N 60.7W
       E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
       G. FIX
       H. WRA ACTIVATION

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
       B. TWO ADDITIONAL NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO
          AL98 FOR 14/0000Z AND 14/1200Z, DEPARTING TBPB AT 13/2015Z
          AND 14/0730Z, RESPECTIVELY.

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- Continued Storm watching.
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Sat, 10 Aug 2024 08:07:28 -0400
We in Antigua & Barbuda 🇦🇬 are watching this carefully.   Already doing so prep 
in case this develops quickly !   



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- STORM WATCHING
  • By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 8 Aug 2024 17:54:30 -0400
WE  IN  ANTIGUA  ARE  ON  ALERT  AGAIN.    This  system  will probably be  
developing in the next  week and possibly  coming our way …. hopefully  not as 
a  HURRICANE.  

EYES  TO THE EAST !!! 

> 
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- STORM WATCHING
  • By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 8 Aug 2024 17:54:30 -0400
WE  IN  ANTIGUA  ARE  ON  ALERT  AGAIN.    This  system  will probably be  
developing in the next  week and possibly  coming our way …. hopefully  not as 
a  HURRICANE.  

EYES  TO THE EAST !!! 

> 
> 
> 

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- Thoughts after Beryl
  • By Ann P <annlouisephelan at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 10 Jul 2024 08:52:02 -0400
Like most of you, I have been glued to social media to follow what has transpired in the Caribbean post Beryl. It is staggering to see 5 islands so devastated. With the amazing relief efforts underway, there is still so much to consider; PTSD due to trauma, animal welfare, healthcare and long term considerations. 

I came across this article on the Facebook Page WIld Caribbean. Barbuda was left so vulnerable after Irma. I hope the people in Union, Mayreau, Canouan, Carriacou, Petite Martinque and others are able to retain their land and get back to living. The carbon footprint for these islands is small but the environmental disasters will impact these fragile places year after year. 


Ann Phelan


- Antigua weather!
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Tue, 9 Jul 2024 04:35:01 -0400
Sharing Steve Coghlans post  (thanks Steve)  and nice to have some quiet time 
after the nightmare of hurricane Beryl.  Many don’t know about our “dust”. 
Goggle it for more !    We continue to have eyes 👀 to the east as we “weather 
the hurricane season “. 

The SAL (Sahara Air Layer) is quite active at the moment, and as a result there 
are high dust levels over much of the Atlantic and even the Caribbean 
Basin........Persons whose health is adversely affected by this dust should 
take note and precautions as necessary!

Sahara dust over the Atlantic is not a completely negative issue for us 
however, as it causes very dry and sinking air which provides a hostile 
environment for tropical cyclone formation and development.

Additionally, the dust helps to keep the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) cool 
by shading some of the sun's rays from the ocean surface....It might not make 
much of a difference this year, as these waters are already much warmer than 
usual, but every little bit helps I reckon!

The Atlantic to the East of the Eastern Caribbean is quiet at this time!

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- Palm Island
  • By Ann P <annlouisephelan at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 4 Jul 2024 06:16:14 -0400

- Gratitude
  • By Ann P <annlouisephelan at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 4 Jul 2024 06:12:34 -0400
I have been glued to my many internet weather sources for days. Anyone connected to the Caribbean feels darkness that has settled amongst the community, post Beryl. 

 I started tracking storms in the late 80's when I lived in Antigua. A few times when off island during hurricanes, I used ham radio operators to relay information to my husband. Times have changed. Gert, how long have we had this amazing community? How grateful I am to have this connection to stay close to the islands whether I am in the Caribbean or on Cape Cod. 

I am gutted about the tragedy that is unfolding in Carriacou and Petite Martinique. I was in Carriacou in 1990 and was planning a trip back in March.  30 minutes of weather created hell for the people. There is some astounding footage of Beryl during and after.

Union was one of the 11 islands I visited in 7 days (work trip) in 1990. WC Kitchen has been reporting from there. They are incredible, really. Their reports are staggering. I heard Mayreau was hit too. There used to be a hotel there, Salt Whistle Bay. I had lunch there and later swam in the Tobago Cays.  How will they bounce back? How is Palm? I met the owner Coconut Johnny once and was a rep for the property. I hope to hear all is well. 

Thanks for keeping this community alive, Gert and Dave and all the weather spotters. Gert needs some change to pay the fees to keep this site running. If you can add a little to the fund, it will be wonderful.  


I am a Mindfulness Based Stress Reduction Teacher (MBSR) and one word that has created calm in my own crazy life is "impermanence.".

PM Mitchell of Grenada made a comment in his address.   The summary was his country had little contribution to the fossil fuel mess yet his islands are going to face devastation as seen already. 

Be well

Ann Phelan



- Antigua this afternoon
  • By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 1 Jul 2024 16:34:27 -0400
> 

4 pm  MONDAY  and Antigua  is  covered in the outer bands and clouds from 
Hurricane Beryl.   Quite gusty  winds  here on the  East  Coast  and rough seas 
 at HALF MOON BAY.     I  am  with out  power   with APUA coming  to  try to 
restore  to  some of the homes in the area.    Not sure  WHY as  we have NOT 
HAD SUCH STRONG  WINDS.   Sadly  very little rain also.  Seeing tragic reports  
from  Grenada  with   an address by the Prime  Minister on what they fear is 
terrible damage on  Carricou and the smaller islands as we wait more  details.  
  Hopefully no loss of life.       Antigua was spared  this time  but  we know 
we have  a long  hot summer ahead  and have to be  prepared for the worst.    
Tragic times   with  global  warming  and the  effects. 



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> 
> Thankful to GERT AND  DAVE FOR  STORM CARIB and the service this provides in 
> getting  info out there.   
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 

- 4 am Monday Storm Carib Report
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Mon, 1 Jul 2024 04:02:08 -0400
All quiet here.  4 am.  Even tree frogs singing.   But this sat shows outer bands in upper area to pass.   Devastated to see the monster approaching Grenada st Vincent & Grenadines.  Hopefully Barbados spared the worst 🙏. https://www.myfoxhurricane.com/storm2_satellite.html

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- Antigua Met office warning
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Sun, 30 Jun 2024 19:11:53 -0400
Just out.    We may get some gusty winds from outer band and high seas 

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- Hurricane Beryl
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Sun, 30 Jun 2024 09:32:39 -0400

On this  Sunday morning,  the last day of  June,  it  feels surreal this early in  the  hurricane season  to be  tracking  what is becoming a monster hurricane  - NHC says it will be a  CAT  4   (winds 130 -156 mph)  which is what HURRICANE LUIS was in  1995 when it tore up  Antigua and my  home !  My heart  goes out to  those in the path   (Barbados is home to my husbands  family ) and Grenada was my home as a Peace corps volunteer in  1974 with many friends  there…..and  a long time friend in  St Lucia — so while  I am  thankful Antigua is not getting  hit it is heartbreaking to  see these islands  affected—  and  others  in the  path beyond -    
ALSO   watching  DISTRUBANCE 2  just behind  the hurricane  with concerns  on  this and the path it will take.    As of now  it is   moving ‘“GENERALLY  WESTWARD”  -  the same path  as Hurricane Beryl but these  systems often make a north turn so those of us in the  Leeward islands need to pay close attention.    It is going to  be a  trying summer “weather watching”.   

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- WEATHER WATCHING FROM ANTIGUA
  • By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 28 Jun 2024 16:12:04 -0400


IT SEEMS  looking at the  models,       95 L  WILL  STAY  SOUTH  OF the LEEWARDS     and  track  thru the  WINDWARDS  hopefully  AS A  STORM AND NOT A HURRICANE.      There is  a  DISTRUBANCE   JUST    BEHIND   95  L  that  may  do a more   NORTH  TURN  so       we are all watching .      Image 28-06-2024 at 4.06 PM.jpegImage 27-06-2024 at 3.24 PM.jpegImage 28-06-2024 at 4.01 PM.jpeg


- Possible weather
  • By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Jun 2024 08:28:38 -0400
Early days to be seeing this !!!

> This  system  seems to be  staying  SOUTH    but could do a north turn as  
> they often do… It  is moving around   20  mph  ( 300 miles to the  east )   
> so  SHOULD  be  thru  the islands  in     24 hours      (FRIDAY)… or  i would 
>  think  by    SAT … they do slow down tooo!!     SO I WOULD  THINK  BY SUNDAY 
>   WE WOULD  SEE IT  GONE.  ( but  always something else  behind   !!!    We 
> never know  with  weather… 
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- Tropical wave
  • By Ann P <annlouisephelan at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Jun 2024 14:44:08 -0400
I was reading Crown Weather's daily tropical report that suggested some weather possible for T&T and Barbados. It will be interesting to see how and if this develops. I am always concerned about flash floods and poor infrastructure.  In the US, climate change is already wreaking havoc on towns and cities; fire, floods, heat. Be safe all.

Ann Phelan 


- Hurricane season is here again
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Tue, 4 Jun 2024 11:49:46 -0400

JUNE 1st     -   THIS DATE HAS  MIXED  FEELING  IN MY LIFE………. THE    START  OF THE HURRICANE  SEASON  which  for those of us ISLAND BASED is becoming more  and more  of a  “worrying time”   as climate change is causing   more severe hurricanes.   It is the  “small island states”  paying the highest  price for  what the  “BIG WORLD COUNTIRES” have  caused with the  damage to the  ozone layer and  atmosphere.   
    June  1st is ALSO  my  ANNIVERSARY   ( this year of   43 years )   so  it is also a  “celebration day”!   

AND NOW THE OFFICIAL HURRICANE SEASON HAS STARTED.  I consider myself somewhat of a   seasoned hurricane “amateur expert”  having  gone thru the  eye of   5  HURRICANES  -  One  IN THE AIR  FLYING WITH THE  elite US  HURRIANE HUNTERS into HURRICANE FABIAN  ( Category  4 ) -  but that is  another story !!!     

  All  forecasts are  SERIOUS ones… and we  expect  severe heat  during the summer months…….NOAA  is  saying  17  to 25 named storms and    4 -7   major  hurricanes !   There is only  SO MUCH  homeowners  can do to be  prepared  but   I for one  WILL BE  GETTING PREPARED  well ahead      (  generator serviced  with fuel on hand ,  gutters  cleaned,   checking all hurricane shutters    food supply  on hand,    first  aid supplies   on and on  -  we all  should  know and have  the  “check list”      SO    “people get ready”  as  that  song says.  A few years back we  added   rafter supports  in all of our roofs across the normal rafters which  we were  advised  gives  a lot of strength to the roof  not  ripping off  in a hurricane.   So hope that  extra step helps !   



    IT IS IMPOSSIBLE to know which islands will  fall  victim to  a hurricane  and even  when one is  barreling  down on   an island there can be a  last minute turn  ( as happened to Antigua  with HURRICANE IRMA in  September  2017  as she approached us  in what  forecasters said was a Category 5  PLUS PLUS PLUS   causing the HAIR TO STAND UP on our heads….    and during   the night  she took a NORTH TURN and  DESTROYED our sister island of  Barbuda,  sparing  Antigua.    

THE OLD TIME SAYING    for hurricanes  

JUNE TOO SOON
JULY GET READY
SEPTEMBER REMEMBER 
OCTOBER ALL OVER   

But  this is no longer the  norm  as  THERE IS NO NORM!    EYES TO THE EAST   as we  begin the  “long hot summer” !!!    


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