Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alex | Bonnie | Colin | Danielle | Earl | Fiona | Gaston | Hermine | Ian | Julia | Karl | Lisa | Matthew | Nicole | Otto | Paula | Richard | Shary | Tobias | Virginie | Walter |

Active Tropical Systems: Hurricane Gaston, Tropical Depression Eight, Tropical Depression Nine
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (23:45 UTC, 38 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Gaston tools:
Eight tools:
Nine tools:

Sunday, August 28, 2016 11:13AM EDT - Hermine

Good Sunday morning all!

TS Hermine just finally might be classified today but not where most have been thinking the last 11 days as invest 91L, west southwest of Bermuda has upped the ante and will beat 99L to the punch as TD#8 as of the 11 am advisory.

TD#8 appears to be making a beeline for the Carolinas and is expected to pass by the Outer Banks on Tuesday as TS Hermine. I say pass by and not plowing into North Carolina as a trough is expected to swing down and turn the system back out to see. Since it was just classified, the models will now have a better chance at intensity and track path so more detailed information will be forthcoming soon. Coastal communities of the Carolinas should be preparing for TS impacts.

The enigma that is 99L, now in the Florida Straits, continues to defy expectations and confound experts and computer models alike. Once forecast to be a possible major hurricane impact on South Florida, 99L is a former shell of the system that passed over the NE Caribbean days ago as dry air and wind shear have taken it apart like Mr. Potato Head. However, it still stands a chance out in the Gulf of Mexico which could have serious consequences in the next days, especially with all of that untapped very warm waters to feed on. A slumbering giant just make awaken from it's coma. Hopefully this will not be the case.

Following in 99L's path is our next wave to roll off the African coast which is expected to splash on Tuesday. Looking formidable on land with extra convective bursts overnight, this wave is forecast already to develop rather quickly and might take the name Ian ahead of 99L. usually when systems form rapidly off the coast of Africa, they tend to curve towards the WNW and eventually become "fish storms" as they are commonly called. However, most of the long range models tend to have this wave splashing farther south and then moving on a more westerly track to the Caribbean. If that scenario play out, it will be trouble around the 5-8th of September for the Caribbean and possibly the US as it will not likely duplicate 99L's failures. More on this as time progresses.

Last but not least, the current king of the Atlantic, Hurricane Gaston, is poised to become a major hurricane within the next two days only 10 mph below Cat 3 status. Only a real threat to shipping interests, Gaston might make life rough for the UK coastline down the road as a potent extra tropical system.   

Carolinas, the Gulf of Mexico, and down the road the Caribbean and even Europe are in play. If your not prepared now, better make it very soon. It only takes one.

Dave

Wednesday, August 24, 2016 18:54PM EDT - trifecta

Good evening!

Having three entities to watch at the same time in August when many said August was going to be dead shows just how much Mother Nature thumbs her nose at those of "oh ye of little faith".

The never say die TS Fiona has finally paid her final respects but in dying, is helping to keep 99L just that; 99L. Looking like it was ready to pounce on the "named" stage today with an impressive convection burst overnight, 99L has been diminished somewhat into an elongated strong wave as it traverses the NE Caribbean. Some locations have had thunderstorm activity and copious amounts of lightning but not many. Mostly, the islands have received intermittent squally winds and rains due to the lack of organizational skills of such a broad system. The culprits of lack of skills: The ever omnipresent wind shear on the north side of 99L which has led to a dearth of anticipated rainfall amounts pushing most of the serious activity southward, sinking air due to the negative MJO Oscillation effect, and the seemingly ever present Saharan Dust which, at this point is now becoming a non factor.

As discombobulated as 99L is, enough remains to generate into a serious threat once the LLC (low level circulation) and associated stacked layers over it reach the Bahamas. By avoiding the mountains of Hispaniola, the LLC and associated contents of 99L will trek over the Turks and Caicos and arrive at a short stalling point off the South Florida coast. Shallow waters, SST's at a premium, low wind shear and a steering current most likely into South Florida and the Gulf of Mexico look to be the likely table setup. This is not cut in stone but the entire region should be on alert. Rapid intensification into a Cat 2 or more hurricane is a distinct possibility with little time to evacuate so there is an even more sense of urgency to prepare and supply.

if this scenario plays out, by crossing the Florida peninsula, it will be a caged animal in the Gulf as it will have to impact land somewhere. Sadly, it might impact Louisiana which definitely doesn't need any more rain much less a hurricane, revert back to Florida and the vulnerable Tampa area, the Panhandle or even as far as Texas depending on timing and steering. These are all plausible IF it goes Gulfwise. Lots of time and factors in between but not to early to pay heed. Even for those who think they know better.

TS Gaston has been an underachiever so far in the Central Atlantic and is now subject to high wind shear but still has a chance in a few days to make major status. Possible but unlikely as it moves into the open Atlantic. Some outlier models have Gaston missing his turn and moving west towards the east coast but again, possible but unlikely.

Back to the coast of Africa which not many are watching, a new wave is about to enter the fray.

Dave

Tuesday, August 23, 2016 10:17AM PDT - 99L
As the satellite image above shows, there is a big mess coming towards the islands. It is not a depression yet, so windwise it should be ok. Also, the 'center' of the wave will move north of the island. Check out some of the reports by the hurricane correspondents who quote some local weather statements. It is expected to develop into something a couple of days from now, when it is closer to the Turks & Caicos and Bahamas. Models indicate that it will cross Florida into the Gulf. Hopefully not into Louisiana who just had unprecedented flooding.
Elsewhere, newly formed Tropical Storm Gaston will be a fish storm, and Fiona is on its last legs. Stay tuned... -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gaston, located well east of Bermuda, on Tropical Depression Eight,
located south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and on
Tropical Depression Nine, located over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for some gradual development of this system by this
weekend while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Antigua [Aug 30 16:51]
- Nevis [Aug 30 14:38]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Aug 30 11:33]
- St.Croix [Aug 29 21:07]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 29 9:44]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Aug 28 19:08]
- Bonaire [Aug 28 15:10]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 27 11:04]
- Anguilla [Aug 26 14:48]
- Dominica [Aug 26 8:52]
- Grenada [Aug 26 4:54]
- Florida Keys [Aug 25 16:33]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 25 10:52]
- Saba [Aug 25 10:44]
- St.Lucia [Aug 25 3:12]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 24 20:37]
- St.Kitts [Aug 24 19:19]
- Barbados [Aug 24 18:24]
- St.Thomas [Aug 24 14:39]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 24 7:32]
- Guadeloupe [Aug 24 6:57]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Aug 20 16:57]
- Haiti [Aug 20 6:36]
- Belize [Aug 7 10:43]
- St.John [Aug 6 11:28]
- Montserrat [Aug 1 14:44]
- Culebra (PR) [Aug 1 7:18]
- Jamaica [Aug 1 6:44]
- Bermuda [Jun 6 23:00]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert