Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Matthew
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (19:45 UTC, 41 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Matthew tools:

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I wish it was not necessary but I am in need for donations... We are very lucky to have a slow hurricane season so far. This means less traffic to my website, resulting in less advertising income. However, my costs are still about the same... The donations I have received so far this year (thank you!) are by far not enough to make up for it. So, please support this unique website by visiting the donations webpage. Any amount helps! Thank you so much! -Gert

Wednesday, September 28, 2016 14:06PM EDT - Matthew

Good morning from the rain forest!

97L took a little longer to consolidate the center of circulation and close it off with the result now TS Matthew. Currently just SE of St. Lucia, Matthew is chugging his way through the Windward Islands at a rather quick 21 mph with 60 mph winds in certain cells.This will bring squally rain bands, some serious thunderstorms, flash flooding potential and minor wind damage. 

TS Matthew is a rather large storm and its effects will be from the corner of South America all the way to the NE Lesser Antilles. Just how potent these effects will be depends on the slot of dry air ahead of Matthew, its forward speed, and wind shear coming north from South America.Once through the islands, Matthew will enter a traditional burial ground for tropical system development. If Matthew had entered this area as a wave, it would have been hard pressed to attain any status. However, it is entering this "dead pool" as a strong TS which means he will survive the passage, looking forward to more embracing conditions ahead. Not to say he might diminish in strength a bit first after the island passage but chances of him going poof are very small.

After menacing the islands and reaching the central Caribbean, computer models have a wide array of potential tracks. One thing they almost all agree on is a rather abrupt turn to the N to NE. What they can't agree on is the actual timing of the turn which is critical to who gets what effects wise. That's why they are called spaghetti models.

Matthew is expected to slow down dramatically and become a hurricane by Friday, eventually reaching Cat 2 status. Quite possibly, very warm waters and a great depth of them west of Jamaica could lead to rapid intensification, if Matthew trends that far west as some spaghetti models reflect. Three scenarios. One, Matthew never turns and plows into Mexico as a serious hurricane. Plausible but unlikely. Two, turns north, east of Jamaica, ravishes Haiti and to a lesser extent the DR and eastern end of Cuba eventually plowing through the Bahamas before heading out to sea. The third is the worse of the three. Matthew turns north on the west side of Jamaica thereby subjecting Jamaica to a serious pounding for hours on approach, right turn Clyde and exiting all while collecting strength from those rich energy laden waters on the west side. Trekking then over Cuba, Matthew could then take a far eastern GOM trek, a direct SE Florida head on strike, or a jaunt up the east coast. 

Only time will tell when this expected turn will occur. As stated, this timing is critical to many in the potential path so no matter where you are, you need to be prepared. Florida Keys, either scenario is not good for you either so pay heed.

While all eyes are on TS Matthew, the next wave that splashed down off Africa should not be ignored. Potential is apparent here according to preliminary models and satellite pass overs.

I'll post tomorrow night when I reach the CONUS. Be safe all!

Dave

Tuesday, September 27, 2016 09:07AM PDT - 97L
97L still apparently has no closed circulation so hasn't been upgraded to a cyclone just yet. Hurricane Hunters are going to explore the system this afternoon, so we will know more soon. Even if it isn't upgraded people living inside the cone (see below) should prepare for some bad weather. The outer bands will be over Barbados and beyond later today...

Where will it go after it crosses the islands? Will it fall apart in the 'hurricane graveyard' north of South America, or will it strengthen more? Models (see above) seem to indicate that this system will become a hurricane (Matthew) within 72 hours, maybe even a Category 3 in 5 days... Its forecasted path is a little unsure to me. On one hand some models indicate an almost 90 degrees turn to the north in three days, making it a big threat to Hispaniola, and esp. Haiti. Other models show the turn later and less sharp, making it much more a threat to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. So quite a big spread. We have to keep a close look on this system. Hopefully Dave can chime in a little later as well when he has decent power and internet and not consumed too many Cacique Guaros. -Gert

Monday, September 26, 2016 20:25PM EDT - Almost Matthew

Good evening,

This comes from The Manga Rosa Hotel, located against the backdrop of a national rain forest in rainy season Costa Rica where internet, texts and mail can be quite challenging so this will be short.

Soon to be designated Matthew, 97L continues to slowly get its act together as has been forecast so far. While looking ominous at the moment as a large swirling monster, a closed center of circulation has not been detected, hence no designation. I anticipate this to be done by the 5 pm advisory tomorrow. Conditions such as SST's, wind shear and lack of dry air intrusion are all working in 97L's favor. What's not is it's continued proximity to the equator. That is slowly changing though.

The road ahead is full of uncertainty and usually I would discuss that but power fluctuating here due to tstorm so time to sign off for now. I will say this as far as projected path days down the road. From Mexico to the east coast are all in play.

Dave

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Matthew, located near the Windward Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew are issued under
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew are issued under
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Brown
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Lucia [Sep 28 15:52]
- Nevis [Sep 28 15:43]
- Barbados [Sep 28 15:35]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Sep 28 14:58]
- St.Thomas [Sep 28 14:12]
- Grenada [Sep 28 14:08]
- Antigua [Sep 28 14:08]
- Curaçao [Sep 28 13:49]
- St.Kitts [Sep 28 12:42]
- Dominica [Sep 28 11:38]
- Martinique [Sep 28 10:08]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Sep 28 10:01]
- St.Croix [Sep 27 21:28]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Sep 27 20:11]
- Anguilla [Sep 27 17:51]
- Montserrat [Sep 27 17:48]
- Bonaire [Sep 27 6:42]
- Haiti [Sep 26 19:29]
- Bermuda [Sep 23 23:11]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 22 20:09]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 11 19:51]
- Florida Keys [Sep 6 17:03]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 5 20:58]
- Guadeloupe [Sep 5 11:55]
- St.John [Sep 2 10:22]
- Saba [Sep 1 7:56]
- Culebra (PR) [Sep 1 6:36]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 27 11:04]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 25 10:52]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Aug 20 16:57]
- Belize [Aug 7 10:43]
- Jamaica [Aug 1 6:44]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert