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- Bonne Soiree !!?
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2017 20:40:39 -0400
Hello to all People of Paradise,

Qu'y a-t-il arrive maintenant en Haiti ?

Il ensemble que il faut necesaire
de rester enleves cette nuite? Oui ?

Ditez-moi !

For the rest of The Windward Islands and Eastern Caribbean.
It doesn't seem so, it's actually happening!
The Tropical Wave that had on and off potential
has stalled and is going to stall over us. From tonight !

Time to dust off the boots and maybe put them on early tomorrow.

God Bless

Attachment: 2017-07-26th Wednesday 745pm.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Posture + Prayer - If you save one (01) life! YOU are complete.
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2017 04:13:37 -0400
Good Night, Good Day, Good Everything,
People of Paradise,

"Time, Love and God heals all wounds, ... "

I am going to post something similar to what my third post 
in stormcarib.com was, ...

Seas:
- If the waves, (whether high or low tide),
push past the high tide mark.
Which will be obvious from the sand.
There is storm surge.
- If one in every five waves or less is greater than 2 - 3 feet
(Usually accompanied by a rip current.)
Then within 8 hours if not immediately,
Seas will be unmanageable.
Winds:
25 - 30 mph. Leaves and twigs will break off.
35 - 40 mph. Small branches will break. Top of trees will bend.
Rain:
More than 1" in. but less than 2" ins. of rain
will cause puddles, where there were none.
2" - 4" of rain will cause your shoes and clothes 
to get wet while walking outdoors.
Initial Emergency:
Call for Help !
Survey the scene and remove the danger or person,
IF QUALIFIED - Otherwise, don't make the situation get worse.
Call for Help !
Examine the ABC's of the person without touching!
THERE MUST BE NO RAPID OR PANICKED MOMENTS !
THE PERSON IS IN SHOCK AND WILL DIE !
Call for Help !
Identify; Names, Location, and Nature of Injury or Illness.
NEVER be ashamed or egotistical about this.
That will affect the response of the first responders, ...

Weather wise:
A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles, with its axis 
extending from near 18N55W to 11N56W to the coast of South America 
at 06N56W. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Broad 700 mb
troughing is indicated by the models to be present over the
northern and central portions of the wave, however, the presence
of dry air aloft as noted in water vapor imagery is only allowing
for isolated showers and weak isolated thunderstorms near those 
portions of the wave. A diffluent flow aloft provided by an upper 
trough that exists across the northern part of the wave, and
ridging across the southern part of the wave is helping to 
support increasing scattered shower and thunderstorm activity 
within an area from 11N-14N between 53W-61W. The wave will cross
the Lesser Antilles tonight, and move across the eastern Caribbean
on Wednesday. Moisture associated with this wave is forecast
to bring increasing chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the the eastern Caribbean on Wednesday, however,
before the wave arrives there scattered showers and thunderstorms
ahead of it will move across portions of mainly the Leeward 
Islands today. Some of this activity may be attendant by gusty 
winds.
God Bless
  

Attachment: 2017-07-25th Tuesday 0245am.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- As per NHC, ... -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Jul 2017 17:53:47 -0400
Glencoe,
T & T, W.I.
2017-07-23rd. Sunday

Brethren in Paradise,

There was a trough,
Not a Tropical Wave 
that just created havoc in Trinidad.
(As I mentioned before. It resembled early 'Bret').
It's Gone !

The system that exited Africa before (developed).
Can now safely be said to be headed north of Anguilla.
(If it survives the SAL.)
There is another potent one exiting Africa as I write.

There is one a little past 50 West.
While it will affect the southern Windwards
It is the first 'hazard' more north than the others previously.
According to NHC:

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 
16N49W to 06N50W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. 
The wave is in a region of favorable vertical shear S of 14N, 
however it continues being severely affected by intrusion of 
Saharan dry air dust to its northern environment. Middle to upper
level diffluence and shallow moisture as seen in CIRA LPW support
scattered to isolated showers from 10N to 13.5N between 48W and 
53W.
The graphics attached should be taken very seriously 
but not panicked over, ....

Stay Safe and Sound

God Bless



Attachment: 48 hrs forecast valid for midnight 2017-07-25th tuesday.gif
Description: GIF image

Attachment: Sea Swells midnight 2017-07-23rd Sunday.gif
Description: GIF image


- Is there a little spinner leaving the African coast?
  • By Adesh Nanan <adeshcnanan at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2017 04:23:59 -0700
Dear Gert
My eyes may be playing tricks on me , but is there a little spinner out there making it's way towards the lesser Antilles.
If this is correct then with any gradual formation this could be another cyclone heading our way.

Dr Adesh Nanan

- Thank You, My Lord and God !
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Jul 2017 04:27:49 -0400
Phew ! (Timeout was needed, ...!)

What was it people say,
"Once bitten, Twice shy."

I guess it will be to the chagrin of some people.
I believe in persistence and that,
"To know everything, is to forgive Everything."

So, here goes, ...

1) Tonight the wind-shear moved west and SAL east
while simultaneously cropping the top off of (pre-Emily).
NHC says it better:
A large amplitude tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with
axis from 24N52W to 08N53W, moving west at 15 kt. The Total 
Precipitable Water imagery animation depicts deep moisture south 
of 24N between 47W-58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is from 03N-12N between 41W-49W. A portion of this 
wave is forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean during the 
upcoming weekend, bringing increasing moisture and probabilities 
for scattered showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds.
2) (On the humorous side): 
'Bret' (to me) seems to have an identical twin sister 
that he left behind in Africa and in the ITCZ  
(approx. = 10 North 45 West).
(When I place the graphical attachments I will try to prove this.)
It's no secret that from the 2nd week in August
things are expected to be more prone to atmospheric hazards.
It also is no secret that July comes before August.
The third week in July !
3) There is a clearly forming Tropical Wave, by all models,
exiting the Monsoon area. As well as the ITCZ!
It is definitely too early to say it will go north (like pre-Emily), ....

Thank You, Lord

Attachment: 2017-06-19th Monday 1245pm.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 2017-07-17th Monday 0115am Formidable 'PTC#5'.JPG
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 2017-07-21st 0200am.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 2017-07-21st Friday 0245am.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Back to Normal
  • By Buffalo Soldier <kellykerr68 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2017 17:15:03 -0300
Hi stormcarib family,

Well TS Don is gone and everything is alright here in Tobago.

The storm passed north of Tobago and there was little impact. Yesterday from around 3-5pm there was just light showers and then at around 10 last night there was a very heavy downpour with strong winds. That shower lasted for about 5mins and that was all we got from Don.

Today stared off overcast but as the day progressed the sun peeped out. There was just a couple of daytime showers but overall it was a normal day. 

All these weather systems are reminders that we are in the hurricane season and you never can tell where or when something serious might happen. Whoever though that there would be 4 storms already and 2 passing very close to home. My eyes are stuck to the east for the next happening.

I was looking in the garden and found 2 Jack Spaniard nests one in the lemon tree and the other under a banana leaf. These wasps surely give a painful sting if there nest is disturbed. They love to hide in the trees and it is only when you start getting stung you realise that they were there. I took two pics of them.

Stay safe everyone.

Kelly

Attachment: IMG_20170719_153126.jpg
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Attachment: IMG_20170719_153005.jpg
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- Hhmmmm, ....
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2017 11:46:48 -0400
What can I say?

"I told you so."
Would be most inappropriate!!!

Graphics are attached.

(If I can still have the weight I had 
when I was younger and 'distinguished'.
We need to put a condition red and monitoring
to:
Tobago & Toco
East-West Corridor
Port of Spain
Diego Martin
because Dr. Masters and all eminent minds says it will dip into north western Venezuela after.)

God Bless
&
Learn from Your Mistakes, ....

Attachment: 2017-07-18th Tuesday 1015am.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 2017-0718th Tuesday 1100am.png
Description: PNG image

Attachment: Capture 'Don' 250 miles away 2017-07-18th Tuesday 1100am.JPG
Description: JPEG image


- NO WOBBLES PLEASE!
  • By Adesh Nanan <adeshcnanan at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2017 17:20:11 -0700
Dear Gert,
The newly named tropical storm Don is forecasted to pass North of Trinidad and Tobago hence no advisory .The storm has favorable conditions ahead and is expected to intensify. Due to its small center of circulation, the expected winds from the center decreases exponentially .However if there is any shift to the south , the island of Tobago could become a target.
Always be prepared!

Dr Adesh Nanan

- Formidable 36 hrs. -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2017 03:03:00 -0400
My Dear People of Paradise,

Let's get the facts.

770 miles away at 01:15 a.m. Monday
moving at approx. = 12 mph. due west.
Gives you 770 / 12 = 64 hours (or 48+16=64).
Following on from 01:15 a.m. Monday 
to 01:15 a.m. Wednesday + 16 hrs.

The Centre should be over us at 5:15 p.m. Wednesday.

Now, If it is 270 miles wide, (and the centre is near the middle),
minus 135 / 12 = (approx.) 11 hrs.

Meaning Impact will commence at 06:00 a.m. Wednesday.

I also attach graphics. (NHC)

God Bless

Attachment: 2017-07-17th Monday 0115am Formidable 'PTC#5'.JPG
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Forecast Valid for 2017-07-19th Tuesday Night 0000am.gif
Description: GIF image


- Every Storm has an Element of Surprise -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 15 Jul 2017 05:09:41 -0400
My Dear People of Paradise,

Please assist me and yourselves,
by monitoring The Tropical Wave
I am going to copy and paste from NHC.

For the simple reason that;
"If and When it evolves,
It will be too late to prepare."

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis from 15N44W to 
02N44W, moving westward 20 knots. The wave is surrounded by dry 
Saharan air as depicted in the latest METEOSAT-9 Saharan Air Layer
imagery. Only convection noted with this wave is south of 10N to 
the ITCZ region between 43W-48W.
God Bless


- Meanwhile, In The Atlantic, ....
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 14 Jul 2017 03:29:19 -0400
My Dear People of Paradise,

Careful you get run over by a landing plane.
Seriously! 
How can this take place in Paradise, .... ?

Anyway,
While 
- One (ex-TD #4) TW is on its way to Florida.

- The present One is giving Martinique trouble.

- There is something, something big, out at 40 W.
There is not much time to prepare if it turns, ... !!!!

This overnight phenomenon needs for EVERYONE
TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION !!!!


Standing by,
God Bless 

- Former Menace has reached !!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2017 16:34:15 -0400
Good People of Paradise,

As St. Lucia wrote,

CONDITIONS ARE NORMAL

Tonight by far will be the worst of
the last 3 - 5 days. Yet hazard conditions for
Tobago, Grenada, St. Vincent, & St. Lucia and Barbados
are nothing higher than a yellow A l e r t !!

Seas will be normal.
Winds will be non-existent.
Rain, if prepared, nothing higher than 2.5" ins.

There is no SAL or Wind-Shear over the islands.
However there is SAL and Wind-Shear directly West
that air currents will blow over the island tonight as well.

While it will be foolish to drive more than 4 - 7 miles tonight
away from home. UNLESS YOU DID NOT PREPARE, ...,
There is nothing un-normal about the weather tonight
for the normal rainy season.

God Bless
Standing By

Attachment: Capture at 315pm Thursday 13th July 2017.JPG
Description: JPEG image


- More accurate satellite pic showing cluster of thunderstorms in the Central Atlantic at 40 w
  • By Adesh Nanan <adeshcnanan at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2017 14:34:39 -0700

Attachment: image.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Satellite pic update
  • By Adesh Nanan <adeshcnanan at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2017 14:28:19 -0700

Attachment: image.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Fwd: Approaching Atlantic System
  • By Adesh Nanan <adeshcnanan at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2017 16:38:21 -0400


Sent from my iPad

Begin forwarded message:

From: Adesh Nanan <adeshcnanan at gmail.com>
Date: July 12, 2017, 4:32:50 PM AST
To: gert at stormcarib.net
Subject: Approaching Atlantic System

The latest loop shows a cluster of thunderstorms dipping below the Sahara dust by drifting more south.This cluster of thunder showers will soon be developing a low and as the environment becomes more favorable could develop rapidly and be on our doorstep in no time at all. We have already experienced the damaging effect of Bret and sustained flooding. Our watercourses have not been cleared and it is a high possibility that severe flooding could occur again. The winds that emanated from Bret were around 45 miles per hour and led to roofs being blown off. The entire island felt the effect and I shudder to think if this was a hurricane what would have been the result.
We are so helpless with natural disasters and must continue to follow Jesus Christ as our North Star!

Dr Adesh Nanan


- In Reply
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 11 Jul 2017 05:34:21 -0400
Good Day, Good Everything,
People of Paradise,

How are things in this neck of the seas?

I think we had enough hazards since March
that everyone knows the drills and realize
being prepared and managing during an 
emergency. Has nothing to do with shopping, ... !

For my part ever since 'Bret' the retaining wall 
on my property is caving in. Ad Hoc gov't systems
and a planning process that only puts placebo plaster
after the wound has been cut. Is the order of the day.
Since Independence !
That also is NOT how to prepare.

Weatherwise, people have been asking me 
why I am not posting about the three TW's
semi-threatening in the seas surrounding us?

35 W. is a long way off !!!!! Stay calm !
Also I attach an image that shows,
"Everywhere the TW's threaten, SAL is overriding!"

So while preparing for the 'next one', please enjoy life, ....

Preparedness is developing 'survival skills', 
not paranoia and marketing !

God Bless


Attachment: 2017-07-11th Tuesday 0200am.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: August 2016 - Dindial - Sea Lots.png
Description: PNG image

Attachment: - Metropolitan Trinidad -.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Port of Port of Spain.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- There! You have it! (Accurately !!!)
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 8 Jul 2017 10:33:25 -0400
Good Morning, Good Day, Good Everything !
People of Paradise,

Quite accurately, NHC has covered the possibility 
of gusty conditions and moisture in the atmosphere 
for the Northern Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave, remnants of Tropical Depression Four, is over 
the central Atlantic with its axis extending from near 22N54W to 
19N54W to 13N55W. It is moving west-northwest around 18 kt. The 
atmospheric environment surrounding the wave is very moist as 
observed on the Total Precipitable Water (TPW) loop series. Also,
the CIRA moisture analysis reveals the presence of deep layer 
moisture over and near the wave. Deep convection is pulsing along 
the wave axis. This convection is observed as a large cluster of 
the scattered moderate type intensity from 17N-19N between 54W-
56W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave within 30 
nm of 20N58W. An Ascat pass from 0110Z last night nicely depicted 
a northeast to southeast wind shift across the wave axis, with 
fresh to strong east to southeast winds east of the axis from 17N-
20N between the wave and 50W. The wave is forecast to pass to the 
northeast of the Leeward Islands by Sunday evening attendant with 
possible brief gusty winds and squalls over portions of the 
northeast Caribbean. It is then forecast to approach the SE 
Bahamas on Monday.
Have a great weekend, everyone !

God Bless


Attachment: Td #4 Remnants.png
Description: PNG image


- Follow-up and updates
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 7 Jul 2017 05:54:41 -0400
My dear people of Paradise,

I attach some images that may help us understand 
where 'Don' has reached and what can happen in 48 hours.

PLEASE bear in mind that there is what I call 
an anti-low pressure vortex at 27N. and 57 W. 
that besides SAL and Wind-Shear could 
but not likely push it south.

God Bless

Attachment: 2017-06-07th friday 0200am.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 2017-06-07th Friday 0215am - 'Don' -.JPG
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 2017-06-07th friday 0415am.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 2017-06-09th Sunday 0000am - 48 Hours Shear Forecast -.gif
Description: GIF image

Attachment: Capture 'Don' at 813 miles away 2017-06-07th friday 0445am.JPG
Description: JPEG image


- Tropical Depression ? 'Don' ?
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 6 Jul 2017 20:06:12 -0400
Good People,

Tropical Storm 'Don',
"Yes!", no matter what,
It's gonna be called 'Don'.

Tropical Storm 'Don'
is less than three (03) days away, ... !!!!!


Please,
Prepare, Pray, Plan, and Procure !
To save Personnel and Property !



- Approaching TW (not PTC or LPS) with less Impact than previous - 24 hrs. -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 30 Jun 2017 11:46:54 -0400
People of Paradise,

We are recovering from TS 'Bret'
and the TW after that is still dumping rain.

There is another TW approaching and due by midday tomorrow.
Except for land slippage due to rain logged soil.
It will pose the least of all hazards so far.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis from 16N48W to 
03N49W, moving westward at about 15 knots. A plume of Saharan 
African dust is observed to the north of this wave. This appears 
to be suppressing deep convection from developing along and near 
the wave axis at this time. An area of isolated moderate
convection is observed from 09N-12N between 48W-52W. This wave is
forecast to enter the eastern Caribbean by Saturday.
I will continue (with the new designation of PTC's)
for NHC to advise you.

God bless



- Down South !
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Jun 2017 04:09:50 -0400
Brothers and Sisters in Paradise,

Trinidad and Tobago, and all areas in The Eastern caribbean where land-slippage is possible should be cautious of this TW that (like others before) dramtically became hazardous at 55 W. Longitude.

A tropical wave extends over the central Atlantic with axis from
11N48W to 04N52W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is in an
area of moderate moisture and a diffluent flow aloft. These
features are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms north
of 06N between 45W-57W. 
Winds are manageable.
Seas need experience.
But,
Precipitation is Hazardous, ....

God bless

Attachment: 2017-06-27th Tuesday 0345am.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- PTC # 4 (?) - 3 days away -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2017 03:09:16 -0400
Fellow People of Paradise,

It is amazing what a lil sleep can do!

My feet can stand me up once again.
Our hands are joined together in prayer and work!!!!
My brain and eyes are continuing to contribute, ...

(At times however my heart and soul aches, ....)

With the new analysis and development of Potential Tropical Cyclones (PTC's),
my contribution will be to quote those in authority and more equipped than I am.

I, (and all who concern me), are really, really, really happy 
about this PTC development.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
15N41W to a 1009 mb low near 08N42W to 04N42W, moving W at 5 kt
within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable 
wind shear, is mainly in a very moist environment with some 
patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW, and is under a region of
upper level divergence. These factors support scattered heavy 
showers and tstms from 0N to 04N between 41W and 50W, and
scattered showers within 250 nm of the low center.

God Bless


Attachment: 2017-06-23RD FRI 0200AM.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Phew !
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2017 22:59:53 -0400
# 08 Holder Drive, WestVale Park
La Horquette Valley Road
Carenage, T'dad & T'bgo.
2017-06-20th. 10:55pm.

My dear brothers and sisters 
in Paradise,

To God be The Dominion, Praise and Glory !

There are times in Life when
words don't come easy or simple.
You have to give a lot of thought about God to continue
edifying, educating and exemplifying
what are the list of priorities that you are most concerned 
and worried about to the next and younger generations, .... !!!!!!

This is one of those times when,
"One feels to sit and put clenched hands between their knees.
Bow down ones' head and cry!"

NOW, for a normal post:
- My studio apartment had no electricity for the whole day 
since before 6:00 a.m.
- I had breakfast at 02:15 a.m. knowing with 'some' experience 
the day would unfurl as it did. I had bread and sausage for lunch.
Thank God !
- Living alone, I had to mop up the effects of two leaks in the roof,
all doorway entrances, (upstairs and downstairs), and one window 
that was closed but facing south. The channel below the windows 
(not the window) fed water through a space wind created 
to run through at the end of the last window.
- I had to go to a commercial centre in the suburbs, (St. James), 
to get cash and groceries. I left home in drizzle and the car 
I got a drop with was not starting and idling properly !
- We fixed two cars today. One a VW 'Love Bug'.
- I fell asleep in stress and frustration at 4:00 p.m. 
(With no phone and electricity!)
- Mind you, besides The Almighty, people are rallying 
and support is forthcoming islandwide, ....
- Reports are coming in, but in certain places
one can expect the worst !!!

Later and May God Bless You !




- In the light of Tuesday morning
  • By Christine Westmaas <chrisalis1003 at yahoo.co.uk>
  • Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2017 14:16:43 +0000 (UTC)
We had a night of wild wind and furious rain with just a couple of flashes of lightning, literally.  We were safe and snug in our home and have suffered no damage to property at all.  I tried to send a post to Stormcarib but it just would not go.  I don't understand why.  We did not lose electricity although we had one or two low voltage happenings.  I was able to stay in touch with family and colleagues from school through most of the night via Whatsapp.  That was very comforting and helped us all to feel strong and positive.
In my neighbourhood there has been some flooding, especially in the low lying area close to the Cipero River.  I understand that the river burst its banks and created flooding headaches for residents in Gulf View too.  I suspect that Green Acres may have been affected too.  The Creek (leading to Fyzabad, Point Fortin, etc) has been flooded but that's not surprising as that road can become flooded at high tide, storm or no storm.  The Maritine Plaza in Barataria was completely surrounded by water up to daylight.  I don't know what it is like as I write but I do not think it is worth trying to pass along the road abutting that plaza at all.  Tragic flooding for so many residents of Penal and Barrackpore.  It is painful just to look at the extent of the damage.  Some homes are covered to a depth of at least 5 feet.  In other areas, Cedros included, the electricity went during the night and has not yet been restored.
Schools and banks are closed today and many people have either been told to work from home or have opted to take a day off and stay in the safety of their homes.
We expect more rain today and a tropical wave comes through on Friday.
I will post again later with more information as it becomes available.  God be with our neighbours in the path of this storm.  Thank God that this was not a hurricane.  We appreciate all the blessings that have been so generously bestowed upon us.  

- Safe and Sound
  • By Buffalo Soldier <kellykerr68 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2017 09:39:50 -0300
As of 5am the TS Warning has been discontinued. 

Last night, I wanted to keep the stormcarib family updated as the night progressed but my electricity went at around 6:30pm and never returned until around 4:00am.

Tobago was spared the brunt of the storm but in Trinidad there are reports of flooding, fallen trees and lost roofs.

In Tobago we experienced mostly wind with a few heavy showers, there was no thunder or lightning. The wind really blew and those trees danced . It is a miracle that no trees went down in my neighborhood.

The only reports in Tobago so far are of fallen trees and one house that collapsed entirely. I have my ears on the ground for any further information.

Well no school today so my son and I are at home and all government offices are closed so my husband is also home. More rain expected throughout the day so I am just going to chill out and relax. The weather right now is windy and the sun is peeping through.

My prayers go out to those affected and to those in the storm's path. Be safe.

Kelly



- 'Bret' exits. Rain starts! -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2017 02:21:25 -0400
( PHEW !!! )

2017-06-20th. Tuesday

People of Paradise,

Tonight, Monday Night! The winds woke me up !

I fell asleep at around 7:30 - 8:00 p.m. Monday (yesterday) evening.
Somewhere around midnight the winds woke me up! Violently !
My guess is that winds were around 35 - 50 mph.
If one wants to talk about dying down,
The winds died down for minute seconds to about 22 mph.
Big branches were breaking every few seconds, ....
Even though it seems to have been raining for a week.
The river at that time was flowing normally.
And only now at 02:15 a.m. I see lightning, ...

I attach a few pictures but,
Really,
I have a lot of work to do 
and welcome contributions from my brothers and sisters.

SAN FERNANDO SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN HIT HARD !

To work is To pray,

God Bless

Attachment: 2017-06-19th Monday Night 1015pm.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 2017-06-19th Monday Night 1115pm.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 2017-06-19th Monday Night 1145pm.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 2017-06-20th Tuesday 0115am.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 2017-06-20th Tuesday Midnight 1215am.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 2017-06-20th Tuesday Morning-Midnight 1245am.jpg
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- Tropical Storm Bret
  • By Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2017 06:02:46 +0000

20/06/17

San Juan

Trinidad


Good Morning to all,

Well its a few minutes to 2am and all i can hear is the rain falling on my rooftop here in San Juan. We had a constant strong shower from since 7pm with gusts of high winds. As Bret passes slowly over we wait to see what the morning will bring. Several areas in Trinidad are already out of electricity and there are reports of some houses being damaged by the high wind. With the hours of constant rain I;m sure we will hear reports of flooding. Lets continue to pray for the best.


Regards,

S Abouhamad


- Tropical Storm Bret
  • By Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2017 01:46:34 +0000

19/06/17

San Juan Trinidad


Good Night to all,

At presently here in Trinidad it is raining with gusts of winds. Tobago has already suffered damage and we trust that everyone is safe within Trinidad and Tobago. Hello to the folks in Grenada. Keep safe and God bless. Next post will be tomorrow please God.

Regards,

M Abouhamad


- Waiting patiently as Tropical Storm Bret approaches
  • By Adesh Nanan <adeshcnanan at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2017 18:32:39 -0700
There is sporadic wind gusts followed by an eerie calm. Right now I can hear the pitter patter of rain drops as we await the arrival of the storm. It is very very cold outside and the lights have flickered . The storm is on the projected path and from all reports can have a disastrous effect in the southern part of the island. The storm is moving at 25mph at this time and about two hours away .
It is at this point that you realize how vulnerable mankind is to a natural disaster.


- Landfall at 12:45 p.m. Galeota
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2017 13:47:24 -0400
TPC #2 
Has made landfall at 12:45 p.m. just West and including - 'Galeota' -.

By now interests in Tobago, The East Coast and South Coast,
should consider moving further inland or stay at home 
if they have communication devices for Emergencies handy 
and have personnel or themselves equipped to deal with 
waves over 10 feet and winds for three hours averaging 35 mph.!

I suggest Cedros be put on a higher degree of alertness.

The reason being the time of landfall and the climax of misfortune
are delayed until late evening and overnight !!!!!!!

Stay Safe and Sound 

Attachment: 2017-06-19th Monday 1245pm.jpg
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- Fwd: 24 Years Later...Bret may be on our doorstep again!
  • By Adesh Nanan <adeshcnanan at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2017 21:48:28 -0700


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Adesh Nanan <adeshcnanan at gmail.com>
Date: Monday, June 19, 2017
Subject: 24 Years Later...Bret may be on our doorstep again!
To: gert at stormcarib.net


I remember the very heavy rainfall and severe flooding associated with Bret.Some parts of the island were cut off completely and their was loss of livestock. In certain areas in Penal , the entire community was under water.
At present our soil is waterlogged due to persistent and heavy rainfall leading to isolated land slippage. This is a recipe for disaster and even though all precautions are being taken at this time, I believe that prayers could shift the trajectory of this system so sparing us the brunt of heavy rainfall and avert any disaster

Dr Adesh Nanan


- Crescendo
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2017 23:34:50 -0400
Good Night, Good Day,
People of Paradise,

The 'inclement' weather persisting over T&T, 
is coming as someone indicated to an expected Crescendo.

The first ever - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Advisory #1
was issued at 5:00 p.m. today Sunday. 
800 miles from Tobago and Barbados.

 NHC said“Under previous longstanding NWS policy, it has not been permitted to issue a hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning until after a tropical cyclone had formed.  Advances in forecasting over the past decade or so, however, now allow the confident prediction of tropical cyclone impacts while these systems are still in the developmental stage.  For these land-threatening ‘potential tropical cyclones’, NHC will now issue the full suite of text, graphical, and watch/warning products that previously has only been issued for ongoing tropical cyclones.”

Further,

Models are in close agreement taking PTC 2 toward the west or west-northwest toward the Windward Islands by late Monday or Tuesday. The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. NHC is predicting peak winds of 50 mph. With the highly favorable conditions ahead of PTC 2, I would not be shocked to see it intensify a bit more—especially if its eventual center of circulation ends up on the compact side. The 12Z Sunday run of the HWRF model, among our most reliable for predicting short-range intensity, brings PTC 2 to Category 1 hurricane strength as it passes near Tobago and Barbados.

First of all;
1) Let's give thanks that what Haiti and Dominica 
have raged and campaigned about has come to pass.

2) With the new PTC's Advisories,
The Onus of: Any loss of personnel or property can now 
be placed firmly in the hands of unprepared and 
unaccommodating victims. 
Unless they were forced to do otherwise.

3) The information is,
WAY MORE ACCURATE !
(And that is the original intent of PTC's Advisories !)

We are our brothers' keepers,
God Bless

Attachment: - - Advisory 1 - - track-ptc1-21Z-6.18.17-418px.jpg
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- Tropical storm warning, not watch
  • By Christine Westmaas <chrisalis1003 at yahoo.co.uk>
  • Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2017 02:58:05 +0000 (UTC)
Trinidad and Tobago is under tropical storm warning and not tropical storm watch.
  As I type this message, there is heavy rain in my area.  I also hear thunder from time to time.  Tomorrow morning, one of our popular annual road races, the OWTU Butler 20K, takes place from San Fernando to Fyzabad.  I hope that the weather is kind to the runners and that all stay safe on the course.  In the light of the expected impact of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two by tomorrow afternoon, I expect that participants and officials alike will be anxious to be home long before the system hits.  

- Storm watch for Trinidad and Tobago and southern Windwards
  • By Christine Westmaas <chrisalis1003 at yahoo.co.uk>
  • Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2017 02:34:04 +0000 (UTC)
At 6.00 p.m. today, Trinidad and Tobago and the southern Windwards were put on tropical storm watch.  We have had a lot of rain this morning but the afternoon was bright and clear though somewhat damp underfoot.  A few showers are expected in places tonight.  The system making its way towards us, designated Potential Tropical Cyclone two, is forecast to begin affecting us in earnest on Monday afternoon and into the early hours of Tuesday morning.  A rough seas bulletin has already been issued.  The latest track takes the storm between Tobago and Barbados but the system will most likely bring widespread flooding, landslides and some damage to roofs in both islands.   We should all be taking the precautions necessary for ensuring that we remain safe and dry over the next few days.  Grenada and its dependencies are also under tropical storm watch.  The Government of Barbados has also issued warnings to its citizens.

- Tropical Storm Warning
  • By Buffalo Soldier <kellykerr68 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2017 22:41:37 -0300
Hi everyone,

Well it's official Tobago is under TS Warning. I have had my eyes on this system from inception.

Tomorrow is Labour Day. It's a public holiday but I am going to get some supplies, prepare and pray for the best.

Today there was rain with very strong winds and a tree went down in the west of Tobago which made the road impassable. I wonder if this is a sign of things to come.

Anyway stay safe and have a good night. Keeping my eyes closely on the weather.

Kelly

- On the lookout
  • By Christine Westmaas <chrisalis1003 at yahoo.co.uk>
  • Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2017 13:55:34 +0000 (UTC)
Yesterday, Friday, saw heavy, continuous  showers in south Trinidad that, coming on the heels of a public holiday (Thursday's Corpus Christi) and preceding another public holiday on Monday (Labour Day), kept many school children away from classes.  By early afternoon, the sun had come out and we had no more rain despite the still lingering cloudiness.  There was no rain here in San Fernando last night and this morning we have had just a light shower to start the day.
Meanwhile, the radio and television stations are advising that we are on the lookout for the approaching invest 92L which should begin impacting on us by Monday or Tuesday.  Regardless of storm development, heavy rainfall can and will probably cause widespread flooding.  Not good news for farmers, home and business owners and commuters who have to bear what is, at the very least, awful inconvenience and is, in practice, crop and property loss and even sometimes loss of life.  Clogged drains and waterways and irresponsible and illegal re-routing of rivulets and building-related earth removals as well as deforestation play havoc with us every year.  
Public awareness of these issues is increasing and there have been moves to clear drains in flood-prone areas but we will continue to pay for our environmental sins for some time in the future.
On the bright side, the plants are loving the rain and Nature is lavishing her loveliness and her bounty upon us.  May we truly appreciate the roles we are called upon to play in the wonder of creation.

- Crescendo Impact - 12 hrs. - 72 hrs. -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 9 Jun 2017 05:15:17 -0400
Good People of Paradise,

There is, as Isabel (and others ) noted
a tendency now for Tropical Waves 
to rise after 50 West Longitude
and strike us with little notice with heavy rain.

Another three TW's are on the way !
Depending on (as usual) wind-shear and SAL,
one of the next TW's 'may form into an LPS',
over The Eastern Caribbean.

Note:
A TW or LPS is not a 'graphical traveler',
it's 'hot ocean temperatures boiling'.
And finding right conditions.
Circular or Cyclonic Convection can happen anywhere
and at any time in summer. 
It is not a pigeon-hole hazard.

Will the vulnerable nations please take note and prepare.
Highly-trained personnel and animals
risk their lifes to save lifes.

God Bless

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Attachment: 2017-06-09th Fri 0415am.jpg
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- Grey skies
  • By Christine Westmaas <chrisalis1003 at yahoo.co.uk>
  • Date: Tue, 6 Jun 2017 02:57:12 +0000 (UTC)
Grey skies all of today.  Rain intermittent.  Looks like we may have some more rain tonight.  

- Tropical wave (Impacting) not an LPS
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 5 Jun 2017 18:02:26 -0400
Trinidadians/Tobagonians, &/People of Paradise,

I am sorry to be late in forecasting this 
more than inclement weather we had last night and whole day today.
(For some probably political reason, my normal feed wasn't working.)

IT'S GOING TO CONTINUE, ....

Tropical wave extends from 06N57W to 13N55W moving W 10-15 kt. 
This weak has become more convectively active during the past 24
hours as it moves beneath the western periphery of an upper level
anticyclone centered near 10N43W. This is providing for enhanced
upper level diffluence and scattered moderate convection from 
06N-12N between 52W-63W...influencing Trinidad and Tobago...and
also the southern Windward Islands.
IT IS NOT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, 
so,
Waves will be no more than six feet.
Winds (even gusts) will not be more than 22 - 27 mph.
Precipitation However !
(Barring what has transpired so far (until 6:00 p.m. Monday) )
Will be in excess of two (02) inches!!!
That two inches will NOT be localized or 'scattered' as they like to say !!!!

Let's pray some sobriety returns to weather resources, ....

Until then,
Praying

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- Dry and hot start to hurricane season in Trinidad
  • By Christine Westmaas <chrisalis1003 at yahoo.co.uk>
  • Date: Fri, 2 Jun 2017 00:50:35 +0000 (UTC)
Today was very hot and dry.  We have had a few showers off and on over the past few days but the start of the hurricane season here has been quite unremarkable apart from the heat.

- Update! - NHC says Impact within 24 hrs. -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 27 May 2017 05:33:58 -0400
People of Paradise,

This is where we are at,
at 05:30 a.m. Saturday morning
240 miles away from Tobago.

[see attached: ]

This link shows explicitly wind-shear.
This is not normal.


Notice also how the wind shear is breaking up the SAL
at 20 N. 60 W.

Stay Safe and Sound
God Bless

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Attachment: Capture at 0430am Sat 27th May 2017.JPG
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Attachment: - - Castara - Tobago - Monday 19th September - Sunshine and Rain - -.jpg
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- Potent LPS Forming - 3 days away -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 26 May 2017 02:41:11 -0400
Glencoe, Carenage,
Diego Martin,
T&T, W.I.
2017-05-26th. Friday

Dear People of Paradise,

The Spring Semester has been completed and 
graduation if not already taken place, is on our minds.
There is a whole beautiful world out there!

Weatherwise:

A tropical wave located in the W Atlc has an axis extending from 
11N47W to 03N50W. The wave is moving W 20 to 25 kt. The wave is 
located in an area of moderate wind shear. TPW imagery shows the 
wave is situated in an area of deep layer moisture. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 11n
between 46W and 50W.
With some experience under my belt,
I will say, 
"This one is the first one with signs of 'trouble'."
(If only because of its strength and singularity 
in slightly above normal inhibiting circumstances.)
I assure you the animated graphics will make this 
quite evident by Sunday night.

Once again, to use the word, 'Synchronicity'.
Miracles, Phenomenae and Lucky Coincidences
are not part of First Responders Lifes.
There is no shortcuts in 'Emergencies'.
There is a 'time and place, reason and season',
for everything under the sun.

Now at graduation time and summer holidays.
Let's synchronize our plans and preparations.
(For whether we each realize it nor not).
Each of us have a part to play in the 
'Formation of The next National Budget'.

God Bless


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- Haitian Solidarity
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 16 May 2017 21:31:00 -0400
Qu'a-t-il arrive en Haiti?

Je ne comprends pas aucune!

Ditez-nous, ..., s'il est necesaire
Nous sommes prets, ....

Dieu Vous Benisse !!!!!

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- TW, not an LPS -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 14 May 2017 06:35:47 -0400
So far, So good,
People of Paradise,

If you would allow me to  pat myself on the shoulder,
"Everything went as said (at the bottom level)."
Things went better than expected.

We now have an imminent Tropical Wave.
This is not an LPS.
(I will prefer not to say it, 
but seems to have more rain and less wind.)

Stay Safe and Sound,

God Bless

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- 1st Eastern Caribbean Impact - 1 1/2 Days -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 11 May 2017 06:00:27 -0400
Fellow People of Paradise,

One saw the 'scissors-tail' bird of North America,
(during winter, the largest in The Caribbean)
going into the third week of April.

As sure as science,
This meant we had a late 'Spring'.
In my new location, I can spot anything in the sky
between the North Coast and The Gulf of Paria.
However I am pitted between two 400' ft. plus hills.
Running North to South.

Weather-wise,
- T'dad & T'bgo can expect Impact of a LPS in 36 hrs.
- At 05:00 a.m. it was approx. = 10 N. and 55 W.
- Formerly guided by North - West Wind Flow 15 - 25 mph.
- In the last two hours, more guided by 
South West Wind Flow and dissipation of SAL. (land to sea breeze).
- Winds are higher than its strength. 15 - 25 mph. (gusting to possible 32mph.)
- Waves will on average peak at 08' ft.
- Precipitation is too early to tell as it has now exited The ITCZ. (SAL is present.)
- It would not hurt Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique to include themselves.

Stay Safe and Sound
God Bless


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- Agree! 1st. TW intransit, ... -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 8 May 2017 11:30:04 -0400
I agree with all forecasts and
think that there is something out there
in The Central Atlantic.

I don't know and nobody knows.

But my guess is;
"It will pummel into South America
not even affecting Grenada."

- More than 3 days away -

God Bless

- Forecast for Trinidad & Tobago
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 4 May 2017 05:38:04 -0400
Good People of Paradise,

More due to a High-Pressure Ridge than SAL 
(in the wind-flow that hazardous precipitation comes from).
The possible beginning of the wet-season
I predicted to happen yesterday Wednesday.
Has turned out to be a non-event of heavy rain 
for less than three minutes once in a day.

According to NHC,
Any hazardous precipitation would begin Saturday morning.
THAT IS IF ANY AT ALL !

Once again,
That does not mean rain will not fall or
We should not be prepared, ....

God Bless and pray for the young adults doing exams, ....

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Attachment: standpipe water during school.jpg
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- Steady, Set and Get Ready -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 30 Apr 2017 00:34:18 -0400
Hello, to all People of Paradise,

This 'post' may be long and ambiguous.
Nothing about Flora and Fauna, sun, sand and surf, in it.
(Phew) !
Based on:
Low-Level and High-Level, Clouds
Dark/Grey and White,  Clouds
The pattern of breezes and winds 
(over the so-called 'dry-season'.)

"I was going to post that indications are that 
the 'wet-season' will start in earnest, BY Wednesday morning."
(At least for Trinidad.)
Then I did my research and have attached scientific proof of same.

Then there's also NHC,

Widely scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 04S-05N
between 30W-54W.

This is not a last-minute call to action!

Get ready to put on your boots 
and put your shoulders to the wheel.

To emphasize,
"That was no normal dry season."

Stay safe and sound.

Attachment: 29th April 1045pm.jpg
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Attachment: 30th April 2017 - 72hr forecast - valid for May 2nd.gif
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- Happy Easter -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 14 Apr 2017 06:12:15 -0400
I think this is VERY accurate.

Have a Happy Easter in Paradise, Everyone ,  . . . !

(The ITCZ has reached the Caribbean 
and 10 N. Latitude.) = 'Rain'.

An area of low pressure of 1011 mb resides south of 
the occluded front near 25N69W with a surface trough that extends
from the low to 24N64W to the Virgin Islands near 18N64W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 23N to 28N between
63W and 71W, and from 19N to 30N between 53W and 62W. Scattered
showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the stationary front. Fresh
to strong east to northeast winds are occurring north of the
occluded front. Dissipating high pressure centered near 35N14W 
covers the eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours new low 
pressure will develop to the northeast of the current low, and the
current low will become absorbed by the new low as the entire
system moves northeast over the central Atlantic early this 
weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will 
accompany this broad system.
Happy Easter 

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Attachment: - 'Liberty' - Peter & Marian - May 2016.jpg
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- Feeling the dry season
  • By Buffalo Soldier <kellykerr68 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 26 Mar 2017 21:52:25 -0300
Hi everyone

Well here in Tobago it appears that the dry season has now began to show itself. The last significant rainfall experienced was on the 10th of March. It rained light to moderately for about 6 hours. Since then rain showers have been few and when they occur they are very light.

As a result the grasses are beginning to die and trees are losing their leaves. All the greenery around is limp and looks quite thirsty. We have even started sprinkling the garden.

The days are hot and the nights are warm. There was a 50/50 chance of precipitation this weekend  but last night there was just a sprinkle.  At present its currently about 25 degrees and the  night is clear with lots of stars out.

I have included a couple of pics. The mango tree behind the kitchen is flourishing despite the weather and I intend to make good use of them and the other is just a pic of today's hot weather.

I'm off and  I wish everyone a pleasant night.


By the way, my name no longer appears next to my email because my husband has without my permission made  changes to my account. Sorry about that.


Bye.🤗

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- Eternal Vigilance -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 26 Mar 2017 03:23:17 -0400
Dear People of Paradise,

This morning, (tonight), Sunday 26th March 2017
we have a distinctly sub-tropical low-pressure system evolving, ....

It's located somewhere around 25 N. and 71 W.

As usual for this writer, ..., let's not see if it will be
- the first named storm
- sub-tropical or tropical
- plot its trek (with apathy and denial).

"Let's be our brothers' keeper."

Continuing, ...
My take is, - It will dip about three (03) degrees south 
in its passage eastward for about 36 - 48 hours 
before veering off into the Atlantic. 
(This based on Barometric pressures and wind-flow).

My (minimum low point) view takes it:
Affecting  Bahamas, most of all,
Hispaniola (already),
and close contact with the tip of Cuba.
I DON'T SEE NEW YORK AND FLORIDA IN THE PICTURE.

It's not a guessing game, but the fact is we know little or nothing.

Pray and Watch for The 2017 Season

Attachment: Sub-Tropical-(Tropical Cyclone) Formation 26th (Sun) March 2017 at 1200am.JPG
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- At Ease -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2017 01:41:28 -0400
Fair Friends of Paradise,

Yesterday, Monday 20th March 2017 marked the beginning of Spring!

Weather is Lovely !

(It is not March weather but plain and simple),
The weather yesterday was Lovely !

If you check the graphics, (animated or otherwise),
today, Tuesday's Precipitation is the first time
in its northward voyage the ITCZ
bears waters on the Caribbean.

Nothing significant, only recorded for the sake of 'Prosperity'.

One can 'hazard' a guess that Easter will be fair-weather!
Start planning your vacation, .....

God Bless

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- Perilous vs Pretty
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2017 05:54:40 -0400
People of Paradise,

Quote:
"There is a fine line between 'perilous and pretty'."

I am leaving other more reliable evidence of how 
to treat this weekend.
One is the written word. The other a graphic (attach'd.).

It will be remiss of me to not mention that we are actively 
'our brother's keeper' in the case of Dominica and The Caribbean.
We therefore urge you to do likewise.

Here goes, ...
CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level anticyclonic circulation is centered over NW Venezuela
near 09N68W providing much of the basin with southwesterly to 
westerly flow aloft. An upper-level trough over the western 
Atlantic supports a frontal system that enters the the western
Caribbean as a stationary front from the Windward Passage near 
20N74W to the coast of Nicaragua near 15N83W. Isolated showers 
are occurring within 100 nm on either side of the front. Moderate
to fresh trades are expected through the overnight hours into 
Friday east of the front, while fresh to strong northeast winds 
will prevail across the northwest Caribbean west of the front. The
overall pressure gradient supporting these winds is expected to 
relax by Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Southwesterly flow aloft over the island in addition to a
stationary front analyzed across the Windward Passage region is 
providing for isolated showers across the island and the adjacent
coastal waters. The front is expected to drift very slowly eastward
through Friday night with isolated showers accompanying fresh to 
strong northeast winds to the west of the boundary.

Fare Well, ...
God Bless

Attachment: 17th (fri) March 0200am - 36hr forecast - as per 1200pm 18th March.gif
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- Wet Wet Wet
  • By Buffalo Soldier <kellykerr68 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 7 Mar 2017 21:26:09 -0400
Hi all

It has been a while. The weather of late according to my husband can only be described as a farmer's paradise. It has been unseasonably wet. 

Usually at this time of the year we find ourselves struggling to find grass for the sheep and having to sprinkle the garden but so far the grass remains  fresh and green and the garden is holding up well on its own. Even those trees that would lose their leaves are still full of leaves. 

It seems that for this week trade winds are responsible for that moisture that is triggering the rain. It is expected to produce light to moderate showers at intervals up until Friday. The winds are also whipping up the seas. A rough seas bulletin is also in effect until Friday. From where I live you can imagine how that sea roars and tumbles.

Are we in for a wetter than normal dry season? Well so far it's panning out that way but we will wait and see. 

This year our pigeon peas crop is truly flourishing. We have picked and shelled so much and yet there is more. This peas is great stewed with coconut along with some dumplings. Which my family had on Carnival Tuesday. In Trinidad and Tobago around carnival time one must have pigeon peas. I have included a couple pics of our pigeon peas.

I am off so everyone have a safe and restful night and enjoy the wet weather. I certainly am.😀


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- More of the Same
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 6 Mar 2017 02:52:54 -0400
Hello to all the People of Paradise,

It's Monday morning and Saturday gone,
and partly Friday and Sunday, yesterday,
we had unusual RAIN. Unusual for the season.
But not unusual for the year so far and Global Warming.

I would like to say at this graveyard hour with 
evidence to back it up.

There will be more of the same today and tomorrow.

"It will only be hazardous, if you allow it to be."

God Bless

- Festivity and Flowers (The Joy of Pro-Creation)
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2017 07:58:20 -0400
Happy Festivity, People of Paradise,

Let's take a break-off of
Hazard Preparation,
Prevention, Management
and Amelioration to celebrate

Pro - Creation

Pictures attached
( I don't have to pluck them
and bring them in the new house).
They are everywhere.

Everything in Moderation, ....

God Bless, No Man can curse!

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- Valentine's Day
  • By Kelly Kerr <kellykerr68 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2017 22:27:28 -0400
Hi all
Just a quick post to wish the entire stormcarib family and all those who visit the site a happy Valentine's Day.

I hope that everyone enjoyed a day full of love and I hope that this love lasts for the rest of the year.

Bye and enjoy what is left of this day of love. Stay safe.😍


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- Re: Precipitation, Wave Heights (Avg.), Tidal Levels, Wind Speeds and Gusts, ...
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 9 Feb 2017 04:28:10 -0400
Glencoe, T&T, W.I.
2017-02-09th. Thu.
04 : 10 a.m.

Good Morning, Good Day, Good Night,
People of Paradise, 

WOW !
"Are you enjoying the Carnival 2017 build-up?"
- AWESOME - !

(This weekend is Steel Orchestras Semi-Finals !!!!!)
{ For those who don't know this is a district war of dance, rhythm, and music, sex and debauchery }

May the best loser enjoy themselves, .... EVERYBODY WINS !

Weatherwise;
While precipitation may not be hazardous,
because of low barometric pressures 
that hamper cyclonic travel.
The distance of the ITCZ.
The Overwhelming presence of SAL.

Wave Height averages and 'd odd roller' or 'bomb',
and,
Definitely, WINDS, (which we have already had to deal with),
are going to increase. (20 - 25 kts. gusting to 45 kts.).
{Great help to pick early fruits and produce!}
By the way,
Dry season winds help fertilize and plant the land.

(this time, when I predict a 'hazard',
I have included scientific evidence.)

God Bless

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- The dry season begins
  • By Kelly Kerr <kellykerr68 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 5 Feb 2017 21:13:05 -0400
Hi all,
It has been a while. Well the dry season officially began on Tuesday 31st January. I got this info from the local met office. The dry season is expected to have normal rainfall and some record breaking hi temps are also expected.

Here in Tobago we have been affected all week long by trade winds. As a result seas have been choppy to very rough and bulletins have been issued. At present there is a fisherman missing at sea and there is a massive search on. I pray for his safe return.

The trade winds have also given us light to moderate showers every afternoon for the past week . On Thursday afternoon after a light shower I saw three snails. Two large ones and a very small baby that I have never seen before. Later that night we experienced heavy rains and gusty winds overnight.

The weather is fine so far and the days are beginning to get really hot and the nights are definitely getting warmer. I have included a few pics.

1. A wildflower _ the sheep do not even eat this plant. 
2. The bay leaf tree in our front yard _ it's one of about three and it's probably about 12 feet tall
3. Rough lemons from the tree in the back yard_ they make an excellent drink 

Well I am off for the night and I hope that everyone has a safe and restful night.



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- Wet January
  • By Kelly Kerr <kellykerr68 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2017 20:57:55 -0400
Hi all,
Another week begins and soon we say goodbye to January . How time flies. This past week weather-wise has been quite fine and fair. No rain to shout about and the bitter cold has been abating a bit. 

This morning it rained for almost half of the day. It rained so much that the weep holes on the back wall were actually weeping. This only happens when the earth is really saturated. This has been quite a wet January and I heard on the weather news that the dry season has not officially stated as yet. It has also been predicted that this is going to be a wet dry season  so I wait to see what will actually happen.

Schools are all closed in Tobago tomorrow due to the THA elections. The THA is the body that governs the island of the Tobago. I am actually going to be working tomorrow as an election official at a polling station. So my day starts from 4am and ends when the last vote is counted and all ends tied up. It's a lot of work but I love the volunteer work. It gives me a chance to do something besides teaching. I have been working as a teacher since leaving school at 18. I have been teaching all my life.

I have included some pics of the rains today. I saw a snail last night so I should have known it would rain . I am off for the night as tomorrow is indeed going to be a long day. Have a safe and wonderful night.



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- Off the beaten track, ...
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2017 03:58:44 -0400
Glencoe, T&T, W.I.
2017-01-17th Tue.

Good Morning, Good Day, Good Everything,
People of Paradise,

The pools and rapids of the river in my new location 
keep calling me. The beauty and healing 
can't be matched by the dangers 
everyone seems concerned about.

I have tried my best to capture in photos.
But it is a big 'fail'. Because one cannot capture 
a white butterfly like a moth playing with you 
and landing on your shoulder twice 
and the feelings it provokes. (Attached).

In the meantime, I missed my mark, (weatherwise).
First, there was a low-pressure system, (to make a joke),
"that started mid-Atlantic, off the Bahamas 
and worked its way to the Caribbean".
(I know, not funny.)
Then we had precipitation in 'my' dry spell.
Night - time precipitation, day- time precipitation. 
Haphazard precipitation, haphazard weather !
Thirdly, I don't know if its because there is so little cloud cover
but, IT HAS BEEN COLD ! Colder than usual !
Complete with mozzies. (So still need the fan). (Sweater & Comforter) !

Usually, the images attached show 
there will be heavy rain within 36 hours.

But its 2017, and anything can happen.

God Bless





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- Cool days and cold nights
  • By Kelly Kerr <kellykerr68 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2017 21:40:15 -0400
Hi all I haven't written for about a week. I have been quite busy this week as school reopened on Monday. I am a teacher by profession so I have just been trying to settle back into the routine. Even after 20 years it's tough going back to work after the holidays.

Anyway the weather for this past week was very wet here in Tobago . From Monday right through to Wednesday it rained a lot and the days were so cold. No dry spells as talked about by Ian or probably not yet.

There have been some record low temps in Trinidad  but Tobago has also been freezing at night but no records have been broken. I have to say that I grew up in the neighbouring village called Mt. St. George and my home was next to  the river and this time of the year was very cold. There was always heavy dew on the cars and you could see the mist coming up from the river early morning. I have been married and living here in Studley Park for 10 years and this is the coldest weather I have ever experienced. It reminds me of being back home. My husband made the comment that there is winter in Tobago this year.  Everyone is feeling the chill.

This Christmas was also the wettest I can remember experiencing. There is a cold front to pass over Tobago which is suppose to cause a few showers but so far none has shown up. This entire weekend was fine and clear but cool during the day. There is also a rough seas bulletin in effect but here on the Atlantic side for the past four days including today the sea has looked like a lake. The tide is high  because the entire beach is covered but you can hardly hear the waves breaking . The sea is just so calm it looks like blue glass. Not a whitecap in sight. The Caribbean side is always calmer but I haven't visited so I do not know the conditions.

Well this weekend I washed and as usual made bread. I have included a couple pics  one is a view of the ocean from my front yard on one of the calm days. The other is of the sunset and if you look closely you can see one of our sheep. He is our latest addition we bought him about a month ago.

I am off to relax before going to bed, work beckons in the morning and it is so hard to wake up for school when at 5:45am it is cold and pitch black outside.  Well as the seasons change the sun shows itself earlier. Anyway I wish you all a peaceful and restful night.


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- Plenty room for discussion
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Jan 2017 02:42:59 -0400
Mon 09th Jan 2017
Glencoe, T&T, W.I.

I am putting out for speculation and discussion.

There seems to be the hint of a 'dry-spell'
for about 9 days beginning tomorrow Tuesday.

(If I am wrong and there is precipitation,
what have we got to lose?) If after drawing this 
to meteorologists/climatologists attention 
it turns out to be so
in the Western Tropics.

It would not hurt to conserve WATER.

(Last year was the third consecutive year
on all-time record it was the hottest globally !!!)

God Bless

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- Mixed Weather
  • By Kelly Kerr <kellykerr68 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 6 Jan 2017 22:38:19 -0400
Hi all

Today started out very warm and sunny but from midday to present it has been raining off and on. These showers are very brisk and heavy.  I even heard a slight rumble of thunder. I understand that the wind is bringing in moisture from Guyana which is causing this rain.

I must say that December was the wettest that I can remember experiencing. I understand that this dry season is expected to be wetter than normal but we will see.

Tomorrow is expected to follow as today with those brisk showers showing up from noon in varying localities. This wet trend is not forecast to continue as high pressure is building.

In between the showers today I saw a couple of my garden snails crawling about. These snails are not the African Snails that are currently wreaking havoc in Trinidad. These are snails that are indigenous to Tobago. They are harmless as they feed on dead vegetation and plants, we often see them in the garden but they never seem to harm the crops. They are poisonous, so eating them is not an option. They are very common in the backyard and at times you have to be careful how you walk. There can be half a dozen of them out a time. All different sizes, so we have to be careful not to step on one.

As usual I have included a few pics. The first two are my families dinner tonight. I made fried bake and smoke herring. The others show the rainfall today and my garden snails.

I'm off so have a restful night.




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- Rain Rain Rain
  • By Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 6 Jan 2017 05:01:27 +0000

Trinidad Tobago

05/01/16


Good Morning and Happy New Year to all my StormCarib family. I pray that you all are well and dry and safe. It has been a wet start to the year in Trinidad. With rain due to the ITCZ system that has drifted more north than expected for this time of the year. Today for example we had strong showers with gusty winds throughout majority of Trinidad. The rains came down suddenly that I got soaked while at the airport today. Please don't forget to walk with your umbrellas and be blessed.

Regards,

S Abouhamad


- Cold and Wet
  • By Kelly Kerr <kellykerr68 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 5 Jan 2017 21:11:58 -0400
Hi everyone today was overcast all day without any rain, but at around 5:00pm the heavens opened and in Tobago we received two brisk but heavy showers. Those couple of showers has made the night very cold and there is a slight breeze, which just adds to the chill of the night. I am sure tonight I am going to need covers.

When I went outside after the rain I saw two of my garden snails. So we might be in for some more showers. 

The weather for tomorrow is expected to be just as today so we will see what happens.

I have included a couple pics .The first is of a lizard I saw resting on one of my flowers. In local parlance we call that lizard a "goung-goh-la-la". I do not know the scientific name. That is what my parents called it and I am just going by what I know. They are very common around homes here in the countryside.

The last pic is of bananas from my husband's garden. There are two different varieties. I am not even going to try to spell there local parlance names.

Off to do some reading, so have a goodnight all.

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- A beautiful day
  • By Kelly Kerr <kellykerr68 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 3 Jan 2017 20:55:26 -0400
Well hi all, today was a very beautiful day. In my part of Tobago it was sunny , only blue skies all around, there wasn't even a cloud in the sky. It was breezy also so it helped to keep the temps down. I live on the Atlantic coastline of the island I am just 3 mins away from a bathable (not sure if that is a word) beach. 

So I can see the sea from my house  and it was just slightly choppy because of the wind action. Tomorrow is expected to be similar to today but there may be a few showers in the afternoon period.

Well I made use of the fine weather today and did some laundry and I also baked some bread. I learnt how from watching my mom, she always baked and hardly ever bought store made bread and I am just continuing the tradition.

I am off to do some reading and I have included a few pics of my freshly baked bread and also a view of the Atlantic from my front yard and a pic of the sun going down also from my front yard.

I wish everyone a restful and safe night.





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- Low-Moving Cold Front
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 3 Jan 2017 03:21:29 -0400
2017-01-03rd Tuesday

People of Paradise,

Welcome to the New Year, 
New Spirit, New Successes,
Filled with Life, Love and Laughter!

There is a possibility later today
and definitely tomorrow of
inclement or Hazardous weather!!

There is not much scientific evidence 
to support this however. Except a low 
(60 W. and 18 N.) cold-front edging closer.
And an ITCZ closest since the hurricane season.

SEAS ARE UNFRIENDLY !!!!!

Welcome Everyone
and
God Bless


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- First Day of 2017
  • By Kelly Kerr <kellykerr68 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 1 Jan 2017 21:03:25 -0400
Well here in Tobago it was a mostly sunny day. There were a few times when it seemed that it would rain but it just cleared away. Today, my husband, son and myself took the opportunity to drive around the countryside of Tobago.

We started from home in Studley Park and headed east through the rainforest . Of course with the merriment of the Christmas season still in the air we made a few stops to family and friends along the way.

We were back by 4:30 to feed the dogs and our many sheep. I attached a few pictures that I took along the way.

Weather wise tomorrow in Tobago is expected to be mostly sunny but at times breezy . There maybe predawn or morning showers and the temp is expected to be around 31 degrees Celsius. 

Well I haven't seen any of my garden snails lately so I guess there will be no rain. Whenever I see a garden snail at night or early morning, it always rains after. Trust me they are my meteorologist. I will share some pics of them at a later time.

I wish you all a restful and peaceful night.


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- Happy New Year
  • By Kelly Kerr <kellykerr68 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 31 Dec 2016 22:24:43 -0400
Hello to the stormcarib family. This is my first posting and I would like to use this opportunity  to send greetings to everyone.

From my family here in Tobago to yours, we wish all the best for the New Year 2017 and may God richly bless you and may you get your heart's desire.

Here in  the countryside of Tobago at present it is a cool and calm night and for the first time in as many days there was absolutely no rain in Studley Park where I live.

Stay safe and enjoy the remainder of 2016.

- Happy New Year's
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 31 Dec 2016 18:46:00 -0400
I will like to wish EVERYONE
who have accessed stormcarib.com pages

a Safe and Sound 2017
with Health and Wealth, ...
..., Peace, Love and Bliss !!!

Let's not forget at the same time 
and in equal well-wishes,
those who are not part of Paradise 
but without whom.
I will have nothing to offer.
The most pertinent example;

Dr. Jeff Masters


Let him have the last say.

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- New and Enriching and Well-Deserved Movements
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2016 03:14:01 -0400
#08 Holder Drive
La Horquette, Glencoe,
Diego Martin
T'dad & T'bgo, W.I.
2016-12-16th Fri.
Today, Here & Now

My Dear Friends and Family in Paradise,

My one and only daughter and I have moved!!!
She is going to Lebanon, Pennsylvania. [Harrisburg Community College]
I have moved more West and closer to Venezuela.
The main road at the top of my street is Western Main Road.
The Yatch Club is at the top of the street on Western Main Road.
We are less than 3 miles from The main Army, Coast Guard and 
Air Transport Base.

The house itself is closer to the North Coast than Gulf of Paria (PoS.).
It lays at the foothills of The Northern Range and the tributary that feeds
The Diego Martin River begins its journey on the flat in front the front gate.
Most of all (except for transportation costs), it is easier to maintain.

Weather and Hazard - Wise:
Today and Tomorrow besides cold, wet roads and nights,
one can expect gusts of wind in excess of 35 mph.

The front is expected to continue skirting
the waters along 30N between 55W-65W through Friday as strong
high pressure builds in across the region W of the front. The
resulting strong pressure gradient will generate fresh to strong
NE to E winds across much of the southern periphery of the
ridging as the ridge moves off the mid-Atlc coast. Farther
east...the central and eastern Atlc remain under the influence of
a surface ridge anchored by a 1035 mb high centered near 32N28W.
PLEASE:

I would like EVERYONE to remember 'Hurricane Otto' !!!!!

IT IS/WAS 'ULTRA-RECORD-BREAKING' !!!!!

Climate Change is PEAKING, not Stopping, ....

May God, ..., forgive us and transform us for the better in 2017.

Have a Happy and Holy Holiday Season, ... !!

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- Out of The Blue
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2016 22:11:33 -0400
People of Paradise,

Trinidad can expect a dose of what Dominica got 
at sunset time today Monday, within two hours.
( I have to post quickly
but other regions will also be affected).
St. Lucia's post will give you an idea 
that it has strong wind besides precipitation.

Quoting:
A surface trough is moving through the east Caribbean and
extends from 19N67W across Puerto Rico along 15N67W to the coast
of Venezuela near 12N70W. Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms are within 90/120 nm of a line from 17N60W across
the Leeward Islands to 14N66W then narrows to within 45 nm of a
line to 12N68W. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms can be found across the remainder of the east
Caribbean east of the surface trough.
A surface trough is to the south extending from 26N59W to the northern
Leeward islands near 18N64W. An upper ridge is along 50W
providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered to numerous
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of 26N to over
the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico between 57W-
66W.
Please be aware, ....


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- We getting Somewhere, ..., Somewhere Rewarding, ....
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2016 05:41:31 -0400
Praise God !   People of Paradise,

For we are getting somewhere nice and comfortable to deal with!!!!!!!

Stepping out of my depth,
(Only for others to follow), ....

Winds in Central America and the Greater Antilles
in the proximity of 90L are;
20 - 25 mph. 
Seas are over 6' feet, averaging 8 feet.
Moisture and Precipitation are more organised and 
this is the significant threat to the same interests?
So much so, that Forecasts look to Tuesday 
for a named 'Depression'.

I would not say that it is heading West,
It is unbelievably unique and erratic, ... !!!!!

Significantly, for The Eastern Caribbean;
For experienced sea-bathers, sun-tanners,
and those who obey the Life-Guards,
We are under a time of 'Repreive' !
Enjoy it !

I give God, all the Thanks and Praise !!!!!!!!

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- Cuba + Haiti should brace for a 2nd Hit -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2016 02:52:52 -0400
Trinidad & Tobago, West Indies
2016-11-17th Thursday, 02:35 a.m.

People of Paradise,

Engaging our attention this graveyard hour of contemplation,
is a well-developed LPS with an 80% chance of becoming 
a Tropical Depression after tomorrow late evening?

There are two others. As a fellow correspondent has written.
One is taking shape from the stationary systems that plagued 
us for two weeks now, just in the vicinity north or south of Puerto Rico.
(Or as the master (Dr. Jeff Masters), has pointed out). It is not really 
stationary but how cyclones are formed. High sea Temperatures !!!!!
Then the incongruence of moisture and heat and cold East of Bahamas,
depending on 'Otto' will do nothing 'good' !!

Let's put all misunderstanding aside.

Haiti is going to be compressed by three systems
with erratic behaviour because of steering currents !!!

It's that Simple !


God Bless

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- Onward and Upward, ...
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2016 06:14:07 -0400
[Quote: English Poetry - Suggested Readings; paraphrased]
I continued working onward and upward thru the night
While others slept and counted sheep.

Good Morning, People of Paradise,

There are a few things I bring to the table, ....

- There will be a 'Supermoon' Sunday night peaking
at 06:15 a.m. Monday morning, (local time).

- "We remember the 'slain' and dead."

- There was an earthquake (mild) in Haiti this morning, 02:47 a.m.
Exactly the same area there were catastrophic floods.

- 'Gert and Dave', [God Bless Them], 
gave me this indirectly / accidentally.


"It is remarkably useful !!!"

It says the weather will continue to be hazardous,
but in the time span indicated we are over the worst.
But remember, complacency kills, ....

God Bless, (uplifting literature),
and everything else, ...


- Interesting -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 7 Nov 2016 20:53:53 -0400
People of Paradise,

[Recall:] 
I write from the standpoint of remedies and recovery.
In other words, counteracting the after effects. 
By forewarning with a bottom-line.

This is important in the face of 'Unpredictable Extremes'
as an effect of Global Warming and Climate Change.

What affected us (and what is now affecting us) will dissipate.

In the meantime,
The former is going to go thru the border of Haiti and the 
Dominican Republic.
The latter or present wave caused flooding in Trinidad
last night. It's now moving northward. But fairly stationery.

I have said what others have said.
I have twisted it to save lifes.
Now read it a second time and even if 'my take' is wrong.
Need I say more ?

Was it 'Alice in Wonderland' that said, "I sit and I wonder."

God Bless

- NOT, by the way, ...
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 7 Nov 2016 05:03:33 -0400
People of Paradise,

On another platform I told them the same thing 
except that this hazardous weather will last 4 - 5 days.

What is coming today and tomorrow 
for the south Eastern Caribbean will be worse.

Stay safe and Sound

- I told you so
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 5 Nov 2016 10:35:42 -0400
Standing by,

People of Paradise !

Call for Help !
Definitely call for Help.

We are willing to serve, ... 



- Out of The Blue
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 5 Nov 2016 01:49:16 -0400
Fellow People of Paradise,

The blob has reached.
(Gave Tobago quite a soaking).

If you wake up before dawn and see this post.
Work as if it is becoming a LPS !!?
Before the sunrise hours.

Furthermore it is not a one day affair!!!
and,
Moreover, the soil is absolutely soaked already!!

There is always a good side:
There is no wind.

Leaving I guess once again.
This morning will be actually dangerous.

God Bless 

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- Hazardous vs. Healing
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 3 Nov 2016 14:01:51 -0400
Happy November, 
People of Paradise,

November,
November ! The month we remember 
the departed and elections and fallen 
and wounded soldiers.

May we, as well as God continue 
to bless them, ... !!! Amen!

Democracy doesn't come easily.

This link is now under observation and 
even though I believe it will dissipate.
Or rather gravitate to the Low Pressure System, 
soon to be named. (In the Central Atlantic).
IT IS HAZARDOUS ! (At the moment)!

Of more concern, (why I'm posting),
there is a blob 36 hours away. It is not a LPS!
I, least of all, am not throwing caution to the wind,
but there is reason to believe 
we are not threatened by Cabo Verde storms anymore.

Imagine: (Cases in Point) !!!!
This blob 36 hours away, becomes a LPS 
between the Cayman's and Belize???
You don't need to imagine. It has happened already.

God Bless



Attachment: - 'Liberty' - Peter & Marian - May 2016.jpg
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Attachment: Attachment-1.jpeg
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Attachment: Mako and Kaiden courtesy Marc and Michelle.jpg
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- Where the trough is Tuesday morning
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Oct 2016 03:50:47 -0400
Good Morning,
People of Paradise,

Happily, the seas are quiet.
The wind is refreshing.
And,
The precipitation is not hazardous.
At least, that is this morning and 
expected during the day as well.
May I add, during winter,
the seas have life-threatening currents,
and migratory marine life. (Good for fishing)!

The LPS/Trough took his turn northward,
became more defined,
and spun off some dwarfs,
affecting Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia,
Barbados, St. Vincent and Trinidad.
Conditions are as written above and 
the little wind the dwarfs have will make 
good compost of dry leaves and nothing more.

This lovely morning, I leave with a quote:
"Patience, is the best catalyst for change."

God Bless

Attachment: 25th oct 0245am.jpg
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Attachment: Capture at 0245am 25th Oct 2016 - more defined.JPG
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Attachment: Three (03) Sisters - off Trinidad South Coast - Saturday 27th August 2016.jpg
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- Where the TW is from tonight !
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2016 16:52:00 -0400
People of Paradise,

Obscured in 'Wind-Shear', I have tried 
to show that factors weight in the vicinity
of 'hazardous' for this TW/LPS.

BECAUSE:

a) It is too south. (Broke ITCZ, 2016 systems 
have broken predictability records).
b) Forgive me but the pattern is strikingly similar 
to a nameless one before. (Not the intensity, however).
c) ALL SYSTEMS this year have beaten wind shear 
predictions and let's not talk about 'rapid intensification'.

Besides, "Haven't we had enough heavy precipitation?"

450 miles is a long way off however and 
its estimated Impact even by me 
is Monday night / Tuesday morning and day.

Procure what remains to be attended to, ....

God Bless

Attachment: Capture at 450 miles 315pm Sun 23rd Oct 2016 - breaking shear -.JPG
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Attachment: Sun 23rd Oct 2016 - SAL.jpg
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Attachment: La Pastora Estate Great House 1880.jpg
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Attachment: - Metropolitan Trinidad -.jpg
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Attachment: South Quay Lighthouse in yesteryear.jpg
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- T'dad already affected
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 22 Oct 2016 17:13:32 -0400
People of Paradise,

Trinidad and Tobago is already affected 
by the TW / LPS / Trough.

We can expect after these midday showers 
to have a night/early morning of un-convective 
heavy rain giving way to flash flooding.

The other islands are told from more reliable 
forecasters than myself that it will veer north 
of the Eastern Caribbean Tuesday morning.

My take / Bottom Line is,
Dominica, St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Martinique,
Bahamas, Haiti, and Virgin Islands should 
start taking it seriously.

God Bless

Attachment: 22nd oct 345pm.jpg
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- It's not too early to prognosticate ?
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Oct 2016 02:56:14 -0400
My fellow islanders of Paradise,

One wonders if;
There can be no trauma and hysteria,
(without blatant lies and apathy to facts),
when the modern-day 'manager' is 
'in absentia'.

The answer to this opening is
' Please teach people to teach others 
without any form of jealousy. '

There is a LPS 1,500 miles away that
I agree with all forecasters will not be here 
for another three (03) days. It however 
should be here in five (05) days.
What I disagree with is 
"It is too early to prognosticate."
So here goes:
Waves; are 8' - 9' feet. (Rising to ten.)
Winds;  are 10 - 20 mph. ( < 300 miles wide)
Moisture and Tropical Features; abundant and circulating.

I think I am wrong, but it is 'out of the ITCZ'.
It is slow-moving, consistent, and well south. 
(Unusual feature like (? a nameless ?) one before).
It is already late October.
We already had our quota of predicted activity.
(Which in itself is above normal) !!!

(Just look at the position we have found ourselves in?)

God Bless

Attachment: 19th Oct 1100pm.jpg
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Attachment: 20th Oct 0200am.JPG
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Attachment: Capture at 1,500 miles - 20th Oct 2016 - 0145am.JPG
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- Expect The Unexpected
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 19 Oct 2016 01:41:43 -0400
I saw the Invest loom into a cyclonic feature 
for three and a half hours and it seems to be 
an overnight traveler to affect Puerto Rico, 
Dominican Republic and Virgin Islands 
before morning and move on, ... ?

For Barbados there was an earthquake near Dominica 
that was not felt as a tremor but generated waves.

I am monitoring.
I need rest.
I am not on standby.

God Bless

Attachment: Billy - Bird Watching (pcs).jpg
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Attachment: Billy & Rachel - Waterfalls (pcs).jpg
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Attachment: Billy Shampooing - Waterfalls (pcs).jpg
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Attachment: Moth Sleeping in Daytime at Bungalow (pcs).jpg
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Attachment: Protective Male Bird - North Coast (pcs).jpg
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Attachment: Rachel and Marissa - Waterfalls (pcs).jpg
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- PRAISES, ..., Reprieve, Clean-Up and Restoration, ....
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 14 Oct 2016 00:10:29 -0400
Trinidad & Tobago, W.I.
2016-10-13th Thu.
11 : 50 p.m.

Finally !
Give Praises, ...
Thank YOU, Lord !

People of Paradise,
I did not have to spend more than 3 minutes of research,
to know that there will be normal sunshine for a while!!!
That does not mean there will not be drizzle or localized rain.
Neither does it mean the Cabo Verde Storms have stopped.

Besides, Clean-Up and Restoration, what the research means 
is that The First Responders Lifes are no longer in danger!!!!!!

Work NOW will be (or at least should be) REWARDING !
Under pleasant conditions, ....

(Phew) !
Let's give ourselves a round of Praise and support, ....

God is Blessing us NOW 




Attachment: Pierre La Borde's Art.jpg
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Attachment: 'Lord Nelson'.jpg
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- Direct Hit
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 13 Oct 2016 09:03:09 -0400
Let's pray, ...

The massive eye is now over Bermuda !

Let us pray, ... !!!

Thanks God, (in His Mercy) !!!

- One Caribbean !
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 13 Oct 2016 02:41:19 -0400
Bermudian People of Paradise,

I have not forgotten you, ....

One will exonerate me for resting 
during the inclement weather even after 'Matthew'.

I have no plans to go out today.
As a matter of fact some important stuff is happening
right here at home during the day.
So I am on standby, (with whatever entourage 
I have that I can't live without).

Complacency Kills

So when looking out for others please 
if necessary, enforce it !

 CATEGORY 3 - 4, is NOTHING TO PLAY WITH.

Standing by
God Bless

Attachment: 13th oct 0145am - 'Nicole'.jpg
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- Convective TW - 12 - 24 hrs. -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 11 Oct 2016 05:10:49 -0400
Hard-Working People of Paradise,

We have a TW, that is NOT a LPS,
12 - 24 hrs. away from Trinidad & Tobago.

One never knows but after this,
There may be some Reprieve, ....

Not taking away from this slow - moving TW
which most likely will prove hazardous,
if not for the amount of time it will spend over the islands.
Also it is the third right after 'Matthew'!!!!!

I have included some back-in-times photos with the weather.

God Bless

Attachment: 11th oct 415am.jpg
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Attachment: St Francois Girls.jpg
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Attachment: standpipe water during school.jpg
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- No Reprieve, ..., Work must continue, in spite of this!!!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 9 Oct 2016 04:36:47 -0400
My Dear, People of Paradise,

We have grown accustomed to a reprieve after perilous weather.
This is not the case NOW.

We just had a tropical wave and two more back to back are coming, ....
(I think everybody knows what happened in Trinidad.)

Not that they are extra, particularly hazardous.
It's just whether it's raining, whether there is mud,
whether there's complete devastation and an air of hopelessness, ...

..., THE WORK MUST GO ON !

Restoring a proper standard of living
might just maybe be more important 
than the Presidential Elections.

God Bless (and don't forget Cuba)


Attachment: - - haiti - matthew-damage - sw haiti jeremie - -.jpg
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- Pale in Comparison
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 6 Oct 2016 13:19:02 -0400
Just for the records,

see attached, ...

(For those tonight, you know the drill, ...)!!

Bless us, Merciful Father !

Attachment: 06th oct 1215pm.jpg
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Attachment: Thu 06th Oct 445am.jpg
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- TW today Eastern Caribbean
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 5 Oct 2016 03:48:40 -0400
Good Morning, to all,
People of Paradise,

There is mention of 8 foot waves and 15 - 20 mph. breezes
in the Tropical Wave bearing down on the Eastern Caribbean.

I agree,
But !

They say impact is tomorrow and maybe tonight.
I disagree and one can expect midday showers.
(Particularly in the southern islands), ...
This is scientific. [ref: Precipitable Water Imagery]

Thank God for this morning !

May The Departed souls, Rest In Peace, ....

We pray for them
and 
Continue to pray for all of US affected, ....

Good Job, Santo Domingo ! Bien Hacido !

- When will it end, ... ?!! Qu'est-il doit finir?
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 4 Oct 2016 19:21:27 -0400
Officially;
There is news of Aid from Trinidad and Tobago,
from the highest levels.

The attachments speak for themselves,
(without any written sensationalisation).

In 2 - 6 hours it will be over for Haiti!
Pas plus de six heures, ....

Attachment: 4th oct 645pm.jpg
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Attachment: matthew-landfall-haiti-wu.jpg
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Attachment: NacComp200Km.gif
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- Three (03) LPS'es with a Haiti Landfall - Monday Midnight -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 4 Oct 2016 01:42:56 -0400
Petit Valley, Diego Martin,
Trinidad & Tobago, W.I.
2016 - 10 - 04th Tue.
01 : 30 a.m.

I am still here, ....

Je suis toujours ici, ....


Bless Us, Merciful Father !
Dieu Misericordieux Nous Benisse !

Attachment: - - 3 LPS'es and a Haiti Landfall at 1115pm Monday 3rd Oct - -.JPG
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- Standing by, ....
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 3 Oct 2016 19:34:24 -0400
It's gonna be a long night, ....

La nuit viendra longue, 
et avec peur.

Remain Calm !
Restez Calmes !

Personnes d'assistance ne se dormiront pas aussi, ...
Standing by, .....

Attachment: carbin-rainfall-10.2.16-800px.jpg
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Attachment: 'Matthew' Sunday 02nd October 2016.png
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- Do Not Speak Ill/Arettez La Mauvaise Langue
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 3 Oct 2016 05:21:56 -0400
I am very, very, very GLAD 
almost everyone has decided to 
choose to go to shelters!!!!!!

Because the worst is yet to come, ... !!!!!!

Do not speak ill of anyone or anything !

Bless Everyone !

Il me fait Joyeau,
que tout le monde a choisi,
La Evacuacion !!!!!

Tres Joyeau !!!!

Parce que la tempete ne vient pas prope!

Arettez la mauvaise langue!

Benisse, Benisse, Benisse !

Attachment: 3rd Oct 445am.gif
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- Impact started, ...
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 2 Oct 2016 18:37:28 -0400
The Impact to Jamaica and Haiti has started.

Everybody knows what to do.

Anything different to that, (wait and watch),
--- ! GET HELP ! ---

La tempete a commencee.

L'On connoissait bien ce que faire.
A l'hors de rester calmes,

Si vous avez le besoin, "Apellez l'assistance!"

God Bless
Dieu Vous Benisse

Attachment: - Impact started 385 miles from Guantanemo Cuba at 515 pm Sun 2nd Oct -.PNG
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Attachment: 2nd October 515pm.jpg
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- Unity and Peace and Love
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 2 Oct 2016 01:49:42 -0400

La Unité et La Paz aux Iles De Le Dieu

Unity and Peace to all People of Paradise

 

Il fait nécessaire que je me dormirais a moins de deux fois

avant la approchement du ´Matthew´ sur la République de l´Haïti.

Mais depuis de l’instante maintenant, je suis prêt a vous servir.

 

L’ouragan ´Matthew´ aura,

Les ventes plus fortes a cote de Jamaïque qu’Haïti.

Les ondes et la pluie en Haïti pourront mettre a morts.

(Aussi Santo Domingo). Et plus grave que Jamaïque.

 

Ce passera parce que l’ouragan approche  Jamaïque.

 

Autre fois, je suis prêt a vous servir, ….

 

Bonne Chance

 

While I have to sleep at least twice before Sunday night,

And land fall in Haiti, I am on standby ready to serve you.

 

Hurricane ´Matthew´ will have,

Stronger winds in Jamaica than in Haiti.

However waves and rain will be deadlier in Haiti and Santo Domingo.

 

This is because it turned north when I started writing

and is heading Jamaica and Cuba.

 

Once again I am on standby,

 

Good Luck

 

Dieu vous benisse

God Bless


- Category 2 Hurricane 'Matthew'
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 30 Sep 2016 04:54:27 -0400
There is nothing 'New' under the sun.

There is a time and season and reason for Everything
on The face of The Earth, and God's Creation !

"IF YOU NOT ON THE SAME PAGE" 
- START READING THE WRITING -

Please be Proactive?
Because (most likely), Haiti is going to get a Category 2 Hurricane.

So too, Jamaica, Cuba, and the East Coast, ...

In Life and Death situations, we say
"It's better to be late, than SORRY!"

God Bless

Attachment: CATEGORY 2 'MATTHEW' AT 0400AM FRIDAY 30TH SEPT 2016.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Help is on the way, ....
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2016 13:20:57 -0400
I got back from Port of Spain on personal business
an hour and a half ago. 
(I have seen no posts from St. Vincent
as per the request on returning.)
Other islands have written succinct posts 
and they will be included.

While I was around the city suburbs,
it came to my attention that, ...
..., HELP IS ON THE WAY!

Even though I have some influence
in these matters,
I DO NOT COLLECT MONEY OR DONATIONS.

They simply ask me, "What to do?"

Sincerely,

Ian (God Bless)

- From: Ian, (Retired) Red Cross 51, T'dad & T'bgo
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2016 08:33:26 -0400
thanks for your update,

The Centre went over St. Vincent's North Coast
and
it will be very enriching to you all for us to know 
how the rest of St. Vincent is faring, ....

Standing by, ..., (with a lot of support) !!!!!

Stay Safe and Sound,
God Bless

Ian and Madonna

- ???
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2016 05:22:32 -0400
Anybody knows what's going on in St. Vincent ?

Praying, ....
Ian

Standing by !!!

- It's far from Over, ....
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2016 18:00:58 -0400
Petit Valley, Diego Martin,
Trinidad and Tobago, W.I.
Wed. 28th Sept. 2016
5:50 p.m.

People of Paradise, 
"Phew!"

Breathe a sigh of relief !!!!!

For remedial disaster reasons, if not for the reason that
TS 'Matthew' has exited the coast of St. Vincent, ....

FORGET THE GRAPHICS

"Let's move on, ...."

Following up,
- After the wind there's the rain -
Rest Assured

You still need to stay indoors and there is still wind.

But now those who are able to do so, can extend themselves
AND HELP OTHERS, ....

God Bless! Thanks, God!






Attachment: Capture at 430pm 'Mattthew' aftermath - Wednesday 28th September 2016.PNG
Description: PNG image


- From San Fernando
  • By Christine Westmaas <chrisalis1003 at yahoo.co.uk>
  • Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2016 14:58:13 -0400
We have not had a drop of rain or a gust of wind! I don't know if other parts 
of Trinidad have experienced any indications of stormy weather. As of almost 
3.00 p.m., it is hot and sunny in San Fernando. My thoughts are with the 
islands in the path of the storm. May you all be safe.

- Full Impact underway of TS 'Matthew' -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2016 12:41:49 -0400
People of Paradise,

I don't have to say it!

We are all being affected, ... !

From 'Precipitable Water Imagery',
All the Graphics of Plots,
and,
What the best heads are indicating, ...
..., TS 'Matthew's centre is currently off the east coast of St. Vincent, 
passing in half hour over, ( not off, nor north of, but)  
is passing OVER the north coast of St. Vincent!

(Please excuse me, if I am wrong.)

In the graphic attached, the centre is really 100 miles south-east of 
where I plotted it at approx. 11:30 a.m.







Attachment: - - 'Matthew' at 1115am Wednesday 28th September 2016 - -.jpg
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Attachment: - Capture at 1130am 'Matthew's centre and Impact on St Vincent and St lucia -.PNG
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- No News is Bad News
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2016 09:13:05 -0400
Please pray for the islands that are not posting.
Because most likely no news is bad news.

Grenada, St. Vincent and St. Lucia are in the picture.
Right now, 
Barbados is getting winds over 35 mph. (maybe under 60 mph.)
and the centre (yes, centre) is yet to go over them !!!!!
Haiti, has to watch out in the future and start getting prepared!
If after Barbados, Tobago is threatened, I will post before - hand !!
(Even though I have to see about my family first!)

This is exactly what NHC and Dr. Jeff Masters said will happen!
Which means the effects will not stop until 2:00 p.m. tomorrow, Thursday.

Pray and if needed call for HELP !

God Bless


- Overcast skies but no rain yet
  • By Christine Westmaas <chrisalis1003 at yahoo.co.uk>
  • Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2016 11:53:57 +0000 (UTC)
We have had no rain or wind here overnight but this morning we have mostly overcast skies with patches of wispy clouds in otherwise clear blue parts of the sky.  There is just a slight breeze beginning now and I expect that we will get the expected showers later this morning. It takes very little to create flooding in parts of Port-of-Spain, Debe and central Trinidad so i hope that any heavy or significant rainfall will alert parents and employers to getting children/employees home before there is the chaos of lack of transport because of flooded streets and bumper-to-bumper traffic jams.  Schools have not been closed but some direction in this regard may well come in the course of the morning, dependent on what the Met. office advises.  Have a good day, everyone, and stay safe.

- PRAY! Rest and Pray, ....
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2016 02:04:49 -0400
From Trinidad to the Lesser Antilles are being affected as I write 
or are going to be affected, by both wind and rain. Seas are going 
to be as high as 13' feet. Prone areas should evacuate now 
if they haven't before as the centre or eye is not going to impact 
until after 7:00 this morning just below Hurricane strength!

I was so stressed out! I burnt lunch yesterday and was put to sleep 
after my last post until 12:40 a.m.

I could imagine how you all feel. (Trinidad is being affected.)

There is very bad news.
Everything that stopped it from being called a Depression earlier 
has been reversed by 97L and it is going to move over us slowly 
just below hurricane force, ....

PRAY !

Attachment: 1100pm tue 27th sept - thunderstorm wall between SAL and eye 250 .jpg
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Attachment: Capture at 0115am wed 28th sept 2016 - 350 miles from st vincent (stat 01 hr).PNG
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- A quiet night so far
  • By Christine Westmaas <chrisalis1003 at yahoo.co.uk>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016 22:05:05 -0400
Here in San Fernando it is very still and warm, with no indication of rain or 
stormy weather. The stars are out and the night is quiet. The system seems to 
be moving away from us and poses a real threat to our more northerly 
neighbours. I suspect that we may not have as much rain as we initially 
expected. Nevertheless, it is wise to expect the heavy showers forecast and to 
take sensible precautions.

- Stay Indoors
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016 18:47:16 -0400
Folks,
Impact has started, and there will be 
dangerous winds in two hours, all of us.
That is between 7:30 - 9:00 p.m. 

My concern is that,
(Negatively): We are no longer interested 
in track, intensity, ..., wind, seas, rain, ...
(Proactively): I am interested in 
Hurricane Supplies and Shelters, ...
The Disadvantaged, Children and Animals,
Emergency Personnel and Equipment and Location !

STAY INDOORS


Attachment: Capture at 545pm EDT tue 27th sept - Impact started (midday) -.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Real-Time Impact Online
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016 04:50:17 -0400

- Impact from - 14:00 (2:00) p.m. - Centre 02:00 a.m. Wednesday !!!!!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016 04:33:52 -0400
People of Paradise,

Soon-to-be, 'Matthew', has exited the ITCZ.
ANYTHING (unpredictable) can happen now !!!!!
In terms of formation, strength, intensity and track !

A hypothetical graphic is attached, ...
IT MUST NOT BE RELIED UPON!
However I will explain what it means 
and the best heads are also saying, ....

Winds: Will be >30 mph. 
Seas: Will be over 9' feet
from Montserrat to Grenada
at around 02:00 a.m. Wednesday, tomorrow morning/night!!!

Impact from outer spiral bands will commence from 2:00 p.m. today, ....

NHC says,
Please monitor the progress of this weather system if you have
any interests that are in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea,
including the northern coast of South America. Heavy rains and
strong gusty winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are
expected to spread across the Windward Islands and sections of
the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or
Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday afternoon. The chance
of formation during the next 48 hours is high. Gale wind
conditions are forecast in 24 hours, within 120 NM N semicircle
of the low center, and sea heights are forecast to range from 10
feet to 14 feet.
Stay Safe and Sound

God Bless




Attachment: Capture AT 0200AM TUES 27th sept 2016 - 475 miles away from st lucia.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Invest 97L
  • By Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016 05:30:37 +0000

A Good night to all readers of StormCarib. Hope you all through the Caribbean are taking note of the tropical disturbance in the Atlantic. It is slowly developing and from 22:00 invest 97L was noted to have a 90% chance to develop into a Tropical Depression during the next 24 hours. We all need to keep our eyes on this system as it moves west-northwest at a rapid pace. Trinidad and Tobago is expected to have showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds from Tuesday night leading into Wednesday. Liat has already issued a statement so for all those who are traveling to please lace with the airline for updates on flights coming in and out of Trinidad over the next few days . Hope you all stay safe and keeping your eyes out for updates.


S Abouhamad


- Counting Down, ....
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2016 18:08:00 -0400
Forecast for 97L
Invest 97L will continue west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph through Tuesday, reaching a latitude of about 12°N by Tuesday afternoon. This is far enough away from the equator to give 97L an extra boost of spin that may allow it to become a tropical depression on Tuesday. With the SHIPS model predicting wind shear remaining low, mid-level moisture staying high at 65 - 70%, SSTs remaining a very warm 29 - 30°C (84 - 86°F), and 97L slowing its forward speed to about 10 - 15 mph, conditions will be ripe on Tuesday for 97L to become a tropical depression or tropical storm before it reaches the Lesser Antilles Islands. By Tuesday night, the outer spiral bands of 97L will begin spreading over the Lesser Antilles, bringing high winds and heavy rains. The core of the storm will pass through the islands on Wednesday afternoon. It is unlikely that 97L will have time to intensify into a hurricane by then, though a strong tropical storm with 60 - 70 mph winds is quite possible.

[Dr. Jeff Masters]

God Bless, ....

Attachment: 26th sept 345pm - eastern caribbean.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 26th sept 500pm - NHC - spagetti plots -.png
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Attachment: 72hrs forecast showing Thursday 200pm.gif
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Attachment: euro-sep26.png
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Attachment: gfs-sep26.png
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- Powerful tropical wave approaching!
  • By adesh nanan <adeshcnanan at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2016 09:59:05 +0000
This tropical wave can be a rain maker and is much needed by the islands 
however the models are predicting development to a tropical storm and some even 
to a major hurricane. The rains are welcomed but not the high winds.....if we 
could be spared the high winds and dangerous lightning ,this would be ideal.
Trinidad and Tobago is in the cone at this time and all precautions should be 
taken to prevent a last minute dash to the supermarkets....stay safe all!

Dr Adesh Nanan

Sent from my iPad

- 'Matthew'-to-be - 36hrs -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2016 05:43:16 -0400
P/Vly, D'go M'rtn, 
T'dad & T'bgo, W.I.
2016-09-26th Monday
04:45 a.m.

From Tobago to Dominica - Impact > 25 mph. Winds -

Soon-to-be, Tropical Depression 'Matthew',

already has winds over 20 mph. extending out more than 200 miles!
already seas are reaching eight (08') ft. 50 miles from the centre.
already there is discernible low-level circulation and there is 
moisture in the centre.
in addition, middle-level clouds in the western and northerly quadrant 
are not dispersing before (approximately) 45 mins.

IN MY VIEW; Areas affected by the Centre will be Impacted between
one a half (1 1/2) hours to seven (07) hours.

Getting a better view on 'track and intensity', Dominica is going to be affected !!

Areas:
Coastal areas
Landslide Prone areas
and Low-Lying areas near rivers and streams, (400 yards),
ARE MOST PRONE.
Other areas must prepare, plan and procure
to preserve property and persons before-hand.

Stay Safe and Sound !!!!!





Attachment: Capture at 0200am mon 26th sept 2016.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Heat, heat and more heat!
  • By Christine Westmaas <chrisalis1003 at yahoo.co.uk>
  • Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2016 14:42:09 -0400
Both Trinidad and Tobago are almost unbearably hot today. I suspect it's 
another 35 Celsius day today.

- Weekend Repreive
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2016 08:28:31 -0400
Beautiful People of Paradise,

This year, (Thank God), I have more time to be pleasant and simple.

So this post is for this weekend alone and not even for Monday morning, ...

I suspect; Seas will be very friendly this weekend !!!

In Trinidad we had three drownings for the week.
Phew !
That's not usual !

If you remember,
I deliberately included that non-experienced swimmers should stay out 
of the water here and an other forum!

(But I guess it's like Donations for this website!  
It may have fallen on deaf ears.)

Have a good 'Republic Day' weekend, ...


Attachment: Castara - Tobago - Monday 19th September - Sunshine and Rain -.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Standing By
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 00:15:39 -0400
More to let you know, ...
..., I am standing by monitoring 'Karl'.

'Karl' has finally took a discernible northerly turn!!!!!

Attachment: Capture at 1115pm 21st sept - 500 miles from SanJuan.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: East Coast Cold Front - another 'Karl' enemy.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- This is what we are dealing with, ... ?
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 11:21:42 -0400
Hi, to all, People of Paradise,

The copy and paste from NHC, yesterday
as well as the attachments
show exactly what we are dealing with.
Re: TD 'Karl'

Karl is moving westward, or 275 degrees, 15 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 315 nm of the center in the NE semicircle.

Please believe me,
"I could be more dramatic."
Eg.
In the 24 hour forecast attachment you will see that winds will be circulatory 
and about 12 mph. consistently from Puerto Rico to off Mayaro 
on the East Coast of Trinidad.

God Bless


Attachment: 21st sept 0241am - 24 hour forecast.gif
Description: GIF image

Attachment: Capture at 0900am Wed 21st sept 2016 - 'Karl' - 350 miles from Barbuda.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: tues 20th sept 855pm.gif
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- There will be Impact ! -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2016 02:24:31 -0400
Good Night, Good Day, Good Everything,
People of Paradise,

There will be Impact.
In some form or fashion, there will be Impact
Thursday morning/Wednesday night till Saturday morning!!!

In small island states, any wave above three feet and tidal levels 
above one (01") inch, is above normal and that's why 
we are called Paradise, .....

Even if 'Karl' stays away more than 750 miles, (safe zone),
at the closest point of approach', the resultant dryness, 
humidity and SAL and oppressive pressure, 
the hyperthermic dryness and 'stress' is an Impact !!!

That does not mean that 'Karl' is a cause of panic.
Or that anybody got it all wrong.

It means in 'life and death' situations;
- Complacency leads to Fatalities. -
There are no shortcuts
and
Sensationalism is just as bad.

Attached are two graphics that
work out the hazard mathematics in pics.

Plan, Pray and Prepare
God Bless

Attachment: 19th sept 842pm - 'Karl' - 900 miles from.gif
Description: GIF image

Attachment: 19th sept 2016 1100pm - 'Karl' - SAL.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- High-Level Centre of Circulation - 12 - 36 hours -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 16 Sep 2016 05:25:34 -0400
My Dear,
People of Paradise,

At about 51.5 West and 16 North at 0900 GMT (0500 EDT)
there is a Centre of High Level Circulation.

It is not Low Level Circulation (thus precipitable moisture)
because Ian, Julia and Karl, have thrown Sal into it (nascent).

The last time I identified High Level Circulation, 
it was made out as a false alarm as no rain fell. 
However Jamaica and Haiti and now advised by NHC 
when there is High Level Circulation. 
(So there might be something there.)

What do I do?
Ans. "I went back to the sea."

When you check the winds (not wave heights)
in the graphic attached you will see (at low level) 
the normal spiral arrows of a cyclonic feature.

Maybe it wouldn't hurt to prepare for 15 mph. consistent wind 
for 5 - 7 mins. every 20 mins. and rainfall in the night 
that can cause some small type of flooding.

Then again, who knows?

God Bless


Attachment: Sea & Trade Winds - fri 16th sept 2016.gif
Description: GIF image


- ***~*** SHINING EXAMPLES ***~***
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2016 04:55:00 -0400
My Dear, 
People of Paradise,

Let's take time off to thank what we can see that's Divine.

There is nothing threatening for a few days
and
'after the storm' is neither about 'panic' nor confusion and blame!

It's about shining examples of remedial actions of LOVE and Nature !




Attachment: - - 10th September 2016 - East Dry River Rescue - -.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Icacos 28th August 2016 (2) sea-coast-lagoon.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Icacos Lagoon (4) sunset time.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Icacos Lagoon (5) Panaroma 28th August 2016.jpg
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Attachment: Icacos Lagoon 28th August 2016 (1) night-time.jpg
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Attachment: Icacos Lagoon and Road (3) 28th August 2016.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Icacos Lagoon Mouth (6) 28th August 2016.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Three (03) Sisters - off Trinidad South Coast - Saturday 27th August 2016.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Fatalities and Complacencies
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 7 Sep 2016 02:05:59 -0400
Good Night, Good Day,
People of Paradise,

I'd luv to wait four (04) more hours.
But what good would that do?
In fact, I'll like to pray and go to sleep (again).

1) The greatest city in The World is getting hit
by Hurricane 'Hermine ' tonight !!?

2) Hopefully mistakenly,
92L has just survived the mountains of Santo Domingo
and (even if it's a breakaway cluster to be subject to SAL and Shear)
that can only mean 'trouble'. (Good word 'trouble') (Not 'complacency').

3) Within 36 hrs. the Eastern Caribbean will feel the effects of an LPS
that is close-knit and has circulation at 50 W.
'Close-Knit' is never 'good'.

Maybe I should have forgotten all that and just say we had fatalities 
and it is the height of the season and none were category II or more 
(as yet)?

God bless

Attachment: Capture 0100am 07th sept - 24hrs away.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: Capture at 0100am Wed 07th Sept - Grand Turk - north swing.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Mixed Good News
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2016 07:21:31 -0400
Just making a security and support round 
before heading out into Port of Spain.

With first the bad news.
"The system is still around."

Now the 'good' news.
- It seems to be exiting about 175 miles west of Martinique. -

Please study the attached.

God Bless

Attachment: 5th sept 215am.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 5th sept 1215am.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Capture at 0230am Monday 05th September - Centre of Depression forms -.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: Capture at 0630am Monday 05th September 2016 - exiting -.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Dominica (support, ...)
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2016 01:23:24 -0400
Michael in Dominica,

I always agreed with you.

Dominica (and Haiti) are not informed well enough.
And that is not just in 'preparation'.
"Yes!", a depression is forming over Dominica tonight!
And like you said, "It is not designated."

Can I go back three steps? (Maybe more?)
I woke up (first sleep) at 12:05 this morning.
That's why I write posts here.
A lot of remedial work during 'Climate Change'
starts off as volunteer work.
What you are having tonight Trinidad has at least
twice a month from June to November.

Having taken a step back,
I keep to my forecast before, and say;

"By morning it will all be over!!!!!"

Hope you understand

God Bless

Attachment: 5th sept 1215am.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Impact 92L
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2016 13:49:37 -0400
Well, People of Paradise,

Impact started in earnest, ... !

I attach graphics of what is happening.

Marine operators near the eye should beware of rough seas!!!

It is not even a 'depression', far less storm, ...
NHC says squally weather and heavy rain Monday.
I disagree (except for marine interests).
Because,
The SAL is unbearable 
and it's moving too fast.

IT STILL MEANS everybody should EXERCISE CAUTION !

Stay safe and sound

Attachment: 4th sept 1245pm - eye in Sal west of st lucy - Impact ongoing - Sunday.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: atlsea_latestBW - Sunday 24th September 92L.gif
Description: GIF image

Attachment: Capture at 100pm sun 04th sept - 1300 hrs Impact start =.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: Capture at 1300hrs 100pm sun 24th sept 2016 - full Impact - crossing Martinique -.PNG
Description: PNG image


- 92L
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2016 03:36:32 -0400
Good Night People of Paradise,

I am awake.

For my own reasons of SAL and wind shear 
and 92L track history;
I don't see storm conditions except for 
an hour and a half wherever the centre passes, ....

At the centre winds will or should be sustained 
over 25 mph. for an hour and a half.

Also it's moving very fast.

Everybody is going to get over 1 1/2 ins. of rain 
just short of 3 ins.

I see St. Lucia, Grenada in the picture and
Dominica getting a second hit.

Have been and am on standby
Stay safe and sound.

Attachment: 3rd sept 1100pm.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 4th sept 0145am.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 4th sept 0245am.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Capture at 245am 04th sept 300 miles from st lucy.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Post-Hermine & 92L
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2016 18:51:35 -0400
Phew,

I don't know what to say about 'Hermine'.?.

May the soul of the fatality in Florida, Rest in Eternal Peace.
(3' ft. storm surge / winds to fell trees / first in 11 years) Phew !

92L,
Is 12 hours away, but officially 36 hours away!!
It will not last a full 3 days! (It's moving fast, ...)
SAL (not just to 92L) is oppressive !!!
Waves are already 6' - 7 '.
Nothing scientific about wind. (Won't be Storm!)
Rain however, as a life-saver, can reach 3" ins.
As a bottom line of worst case scenario.
One last thing is, - In my thinking -
It will veer a bit north about 75 - 125 miles before Barbados.
Phew !

God bless YOU

Attachment: 92L - 2nd sept 2016.png
Description: PNG image

Attachment: 2nd sept 515pm.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- WOW -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2016 19:08:48 -0400
Good Evening and Good Night,
People of Paradise,

Pre-Hermine is now TD #9.
The Carolinas apparently were lost for attention. 🤔

Back to TD #9, "To me" it looks like,
It took a drastic dip south of South Florida.
I don't know! But,
I tried to express myself by the graphic attached.

In my admiration for Dr. Jeff Masters,
I admire and follow Bob Henson as well.

He has provided a very interesting forecast 
in the other graphic.

Last Note:
I hope I am wrong but the LPS coming out of Africa,
will be between 40 - 50 W. Longitude in 72 hours.

May Almighty God Bless US


Attachment: Capture TD 9 at 620pm sun28th aug 2016 - dipped south of south Florida -.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: wpc-5-day-8.28.16 Bob Henson Report - Sun 28th Aug.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Pre-Hermine
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2016 03:58:37 -0400
My God and My Lord,
People of Paradise,

This Atlantic 'El Nino' 2016 is awe-inspiring, ... !

The 'Advisory' Charts are like checker boards 
(ie. tic, tac, toe) with lots of X's and O's, ...
The satellite images are a lot of swirls,
(the closest imagery I can use in English)
like a hawk or falcon or eagle pouncing on a dove 
and creating a swirl of feathers! 

High-Level, Low-Level, Surface Circulation, Cyclonic System,
they are all there everyday, .... (Since January as a matter of fact.)

For this one and only time, I am going to be totally superstitious.

"If you can't see the relationship between:
Humanity, Nature, God, Prayer, and Fasting (hard-work and selflessness),
then I will eat the dog food and cook my lunch  for the dog and strays."

Whatever about religion and superstition,
Pre-Hermine and a few others have been 'Phenomenally Merciful' !

God Bless



Attachment: 27th August (Saturday) 2016 - NHC.png
Description: PNG image


- Praise God -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2016 02:35:53 -0400
Hearty and Cherry Good Morning,
To The Eastern Side of Paradise,

(Yawn)
(I finally got some sleep.)

Thank God we got over it !

Now:
Now !
Now, let join hearts and hands
to wish The Turks and Caicos and Bahamas
THE SAME REPRIEVE !!!

Talking about Mercy,
I wonder if Louisiana knows something worse 
can hit them.

Thank God, (every minute) !

- I know trouble is coming towards us this time
  • By Andrea Sorrillo <andrea_tt at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 10:34:33 +0000

The placed was cold and suddenly got dark. 


- 5:00 a.m. - Full Impact -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 05:14:43 -0400
The LPS is not going to let up for another 2 - 6 hours !!!!!

Stay in a safe place and keep calm !!!

You are hurt and injured, even if it's only your nerves,
but,
1) There are people less fortunate than you.
2) Anything else will be worse, ... !!!!!

If it keeps a centre in the hot sun,
Puerto Rico and its Dependencies are in for trouble !
6 - 8 hours of Trouble !
It is determined to form a centre between Guadeloupe and Montserrat.

There are a lot of things you can do during a storm:
Draughts
Checkers
Dominos
Cards
Read
Cell Phones
Learn Survival Skills first-hand.

But maybe the best thing to do and bond with children 
for along time is 'keep a diary', an ongoing diary.

I have been, I am and I will be standing by, ....

- 12:30 a.m. - Antigua - 12:30 a.m.
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 00:58:18 -0400
A N T I G U A

STAY INDOORS
&
CALL FOR HELP !

Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, St. Barts,
Anguilla,  British and US Virgin Islands and all others,
North and West of Guadeloupe, ....

Stay Indoors and Call for HELP !

DO NOT PANIC
for identifiable, trained and Equipped personnel 
will HELP YOU.

If you are unsafe,

Call the authorities for HELP, NO ONE ELSE !
In the meantime stay Indoors.

If you are indoors and your life is threatened,
Stay Indoors, and wait there till help comes,
Or,
Is brought to YOU.

THE AUTHORITIES WILL BE IDENTIFIABLE !

No one else !

If you are safe but uncomfortable and need advice,
CALL FOR HELP,
But not the emergency numbers.

Eg. Local/Community Aldermen
Hospitals,
Fire Services,
Approved Organisations.

If you can't communicate,
CALL FOR HELP,
anyway possible in the form of a chain or bucket brigade, ....

Standing by

- Much Too Slow Moving !!!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 22:04:26 -0400
My estimate is from 2:30 p.m. today Tuesday,
it will take 28 hours for this system to leave us alone.
That is 6:30 p.m. tomorrow Wednesday.

I am going for my second cold shower for the day now.

STAY CALM
God Bless

Attachment: Capture at 900pm 23rd aug - Full Impact -.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: Capture at 930pm 85miles from Antigua 23rd aug.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: 23rd aug 915pm full impact starts.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Standby -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 15:13:36 -0400
People of Paradise,

I had lunch one hour ago and 
while eating bananas and oranges 
for dessert brought in the dry clothes 
off the lines. (Baked Food).

I haven't a clue what the Hurricane Hunters found.
But if, as they should be, 
'devil's advocates on pronouncements'.
they will not pronounce 'Depression'.

My take is,
Winds: 20 mph. in the centre extending out 125 miles.
Seas: 7' - 11' From 350 miles moving inwards.
Precipitation: VARIABLE 'specially during the night',
BUT NO LESS THAN 1 1/2" INS. FROM 350 - 500 MILES OUT.
A centre of Depression may form north or south of Puerto Rico.
From 2:30 p.m. today Tuesday, it will last three (03) days.

My point is;
I am on standby and awake for the next probable 48 hours.

G o d     B l e s s 

Attachment: Capture at 230pm 23rd august.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Keep Calm -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 02:47:08 -0400
Stay Calm

We are all in this together, ...

Let's support each other?


WITHOUT TAKING ANY FURTHER RISKS !

Attachment: 23rd aug 115am infrared.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 23rd aug 0130am radar map.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: 23rd aug 130am satellite.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 23rd aug NHC Map.png
Description: PNG image

Attachment: Capture 550 miles away 23rd aug 0130am.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Let's keep it SIMPLE !!?
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2016 11:37:40 -0400
The attached graphic is my 'take' or 
forecast as regards minimum preparedness, ...

The Characteristics of 99L (at present) is as follows;
- Winds 15 - 25 mph. consistently.
- Waves 7' - 9' Ft.
- Diameter of 20 mph. winds :=
  = From 75 miles north of Guadeloupe to 200 miles west of Guyana coast.
- Barometric pressure at current status at landfall. 1009 millibars. 'Storm'.

You have to get prepared and pray like last year for SAL, Wind-Shear, and
God's Intercession as seen in the role of Authorities and Life - Savers.

Stay Safe and Sound
God bless

Attachment: 21st aug 72 hour forecast (Tuesday Night).gif
Description: GIF image


- ITCZ/Tropical Wave with Impact upon T&T
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2016 14:29:30 -0400
People of Paradise,

By tonight, early tonight,
Trinidad and Tobago will feel the persistent fall of rain,
first in heavy spurts,
then rough seas, and gusts between 25 - 35 mph.

I don't know for the other islands.

My guess, I repeat, my guess is;
"Whatever conditions greet us tomorrow foreday morning,
will persist for the next two weeks."

My guess, once again, is that;
As a blanket statement for the Eastern Caribbean,
seas will be un-friendly,
from tomorrow morning, ....
6' - 7' ft. waves will be the order of the day.
Sometimes even in the West Coasts. (3' - 4' ft.)

I strongly urge everyone to start their preparation 
from now for a train of events, ....

Stay Safe and Sound !!!!


Attachment: 17th aug 0200am.GIF
Description: GIF image

Attachment: 17th aug 2016 (0400am).PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: 18th aug 115pm.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Prepare! Rather than Panic Purchase, ....!!!!!!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 16 Aug 2016 15:08:12 -0400
1) There is a weak Tropical Wave upon us now !!

2) This image is a distinct possibility.

Inline image 1

Whether or Not !!!!
3) The attached picture of SAL
shows a Train of LPS's heading this way, ....

Pray and Prepare, ....


Attachment: 16th aug 200pm.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Impact tonight south of Guadeloupe
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2016 16:55:46 -0400
Pleasant Pleasantries,
People of Paradise,

Tropical wave axis extends from 07N52W to 14N52W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 51W-57W
and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of
the wave axis near 10N as depicted in the global models. An
upper trough associated with an upper low at 20N55W is helping
to enhance moderate to isolated strong convection from 09N-11N
within 120 nm west of the wave axis.
This wave is well expressed above.

Added to that,
Because it is slow moving, THE BOTTOM LINE is,
- less than 2' ins. of rain south of Guadeloupe (until Monday morning).
- No breeze - gusting not over 22mph.
- To describe the seas - CALM -

Attached you will see no wind shear till it reaches us.
Copious SAL (Dry Air).
The next wave is a killer. (see SAL).
But may end up in The Atlantic.

God Bless


Attachment: 13th aug 200pm.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 13th aug 345pm.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Hope is on The Horizon -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2016 16:32:39 -0400
Tomorrow morning, 
where St. Lucia is concerned.
IT WILL ALL BE OVER !!!

GOD BLESS !

- Latest, ...
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2016 12:31:12 -0400
Attached is the system's position at 11:30 a.m.

"We started having thunder and rain in Diego Martin, Trinidad."

(that is between 12:00 - 12:20 p.m.)

Attachment: Capture at 1130am Thursday 11th August 2016 (8hrs rain-St Lucia).PNG
Description: PNG image


- It's Not Over !!!!!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2016 10:13:44 -0400
Included are graphics to show what can happen!

In other words,

It is not over !!!

EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE, ....

Boil Water !!!!!!

(Even bathing your skin might scratch in severe cases.)

Don't eat fallen fruit and food (animals) and BOIL WATER !
In an emergency, as a quick solution, put chlorine (bleach) in the water.

LISTEN TO THE AUTHORITIES, .... !!!!!!!

Attachment: Thursday 11th August 2016 - 0915am - (Lingering Nature) - (Commencement 445a.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Capture 0915am St Lucia Thu 11th Aug.PNG
Description: PNG image


- First Response
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2016 08:38:47 -0400
Thanks,
Humble Thanks Mrs. Beckwith,
for informing us of ongoing conditions.

What you describe is 'hurricane wetness'.
MINUS THE BREEZE
When everything is said and done,
EVERYTHING IS GOING TO BE MOIST
Even what you have in plastic.
For people less fortunate than you,
They would not be able to catch a nap
Without dry blankets.

About napping, ....

One cannot describe the amount of work that has to be done after!!

BUT, - ,NAPPING IS JUST AS IMPORTANT !!!!
Not just for the nerves.

Standing by, ....
God Bless

- St. Lucia & Martinique
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2016 04:34:32 -0400
I am not sleeping.

We are standing by, ....

God be with YOU All !

- Not so soon !
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2016 20:35:43 -0400
Good Day, Good Night, People of Paradise,

I am here to report that everything is safe and sound 
and we don't only wish all those affected well 
but standby in readiness.

I prognosed at least a week of reprieve, ....
And whether the chicken came first or the egg,
so did a lot of other people.

Well! There is something with an Impact time of 
Thursday morning / Wednesday night.

Just like the typical secondary stage of a tropical blob
it flared up out of nowhere.
It seems to be exiting the ITCZ (at 50 W.).
It's circular and sizable.
It's origin and exit is circumstantial proof. (To be wary)!

One thing I know, I am not missing tonight's sleep over it !

God Bless

- One more (98L) to go, then REPRIEVE !!!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 5 Aug 2016 03:20:11 -0400
Non-highlighted 98L has started to impact south Trinidad.

Ex-96L as I hope you recognized and heeded is exiting Guadeloupe.

In less than 24 hours if it maintains character 98L will have 
35 mph. wind gusts but less rain than ex-96 L.
The problem with this last one is,
It has been so strong and thru difficult circumstances,
It can change (intensify) (specially in localized areas),
in the puff of a breath !

I AM NOT A DESIGNATED AUTHORITY:

Due to;
- Inundation from three back to back
- Lack of SAL and Wind Shear
- Character sustained thus far.

If the authorities concur with standby first responders,
some type of VOLUNTARY evacuation to safer areas 
should be provided.

Eg. Dominica, Grenada, / Moruga, Toco and Tobago in Trinidad.

Then Reprieve, ....

Stay safe and sound, ...

- ex-96L - 48 hrs.
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 3 Aug 2016 00:35:35 -0400
My Dear People of Paradise,

There are three Tropical Low-Pressure-Systems in the picture!!!
WE HAVE NOT DODGED THE BULLET !
TS 'Earl' is the very first (1st.) Invest from Cabo Verde for 2016 !
And boy oh boy, has he done some amazing things, ....
Once again we express full support where needed, ...

Ex-96L is not what you see in graphical images.
As soon as she comes out of wind shear 
200 miles from the Eastern Caribbean
you will see what I mean?

Ex-96L is much more organized and stronger and
fought rigorous SAL (Dry Air).
It is also more south.
Where as Earl exited the ITCZ at 38 - 40 W. Longitude,
Ex-96L is still partly in the ITCZ at 46 - 48 W. Longitude.

It's circulation in time lapse has always been more pronounced than 'Earl'.

Then again, who knows!

God Bless


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- Solidarity and Support, ....
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 3 Aug 2016 00:12:43 -0400
This humble correspondent, will like to join
his brothers and sisters of 'what-we-call Paradise'
in expressing full and uncompromising support
to all those affected and that may be affected 
in the future by TS 'Earl'!

To those who lost their lifes, ...,
I wish you Peace, Perfect Peace,
in a Land where you will worry no more, ....

May Their Souls and The Souls of The Faithful Departed,

Rest In Peace, .....

- Good Morning, ..., Praise God !
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2016 08:45:01 -0400
P/Vly, D'go M'rtn,
T'dad & T'bgo, W.I.
2016/07/31st-08:35a.m.

The ole man is not what he used to be.
I am not as strong as before, ...!
I fell asleep at about 3:50 a.m.
Just as Martinique was getting 
a serious pounding, ...???
And I got up half hour ago 
when it exited Dominica and posed itself 
as a Depression west of Martinique!!!

Thank God Anguilla and the other 
drought - stricken areas got rain, ...

And will continue to get.

God Bless
Thank YOU, LORD !

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- Attention, Dominica !!!!!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2016 23:29:41 -0400
The latest:

There is a breakaway from the cluster 
affecting just north and east of Barbuda.

This cluster appears to be breaking up, 
(to feed the lower pressure formed 
approx. 200 miles east of Martinique!!!)
and is forming part of the inward spiral!!!

The Impact time is more or less the same!!!
Between 01:30 a.m. and 04:00 a.m. , ...,
That is the touchdown of the Centre 
as NHC always said, DUE WEST!

BESIDES HEAVY SEAS, THERE IS W I N D !!!

"I hope to God, I am wrong and it goes north of Barbuda."

WHATEVER HAPPENS, DOMINICA TREAT THIS AS
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN TWO (02) HOURS !

GOD BLESS

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- Two points of Update and a 8:10 p.m Image
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2016 20:35:43 -0400
Everybody seems to be correlating, ....

There are two recent, as in the last half hour,
updates that have become more obvious as 
Impact approaches at about 02:30 a.m. tomorrow, Sunday!

One, 
is that a 'discernible or visible' cyclonic formation shape 
will be evident any time now !

Two,
is that the track is no longer ?Westward?,
but North-Westward, not even exact, west, north-west!

The Image attached was done at 20:10 (8:10) p.m. tonight.

Follow The Authorities!
Comply, don't Complain,
Stay Indoors!

God Bless

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- Northerly Impact Ongoing, ..., Climaxing 12 - 48 hrs.
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2016 12:45:10 -0400
Be Prepared,
People of Paradise,

Ceteris Paribus:
"I assume those involved have been following 
and prepared themselves."

My take:
"Is what everyone else is saying."
Apart from that, It is outside of Trinidad's portfolio
as a primary, direct affect.
(Even though we stand by.)

This is a separate and non-low pressure wave affecting us now. 
The real one or the first one is behind. (12hrs.)
Then there's a more potent one behind that.

(My take cont'd):
The only bad part to the actual low pressure wave 
is that we will be on the bad side of the circulation!

At best (and quite possible);
The center or rather axis will pass 25 miles north or south from Anguilla.

Winds; should occasionally be 17 - 25 mph. 
Very, very seldom gusting to a little above 35 mph.
(Worst case scenario!)
Waves; will be higher than usual and dangerous!!! (Blanket!)
Some will have waves higher than 2 metres from the west coasts.!.!.
Precipitation; will be in localized areas no more than 2.5 ins.
(If Dominica (Martinique and Guadeloupe) are involved 4" inches max.

Finishing my take:
"I don't see Dominica and Puerto Rico in the life-threatening picture!"

IF ANY ISLANDS SOUTH OF GUADELOUPE ARE INVOLVED
I WILL BE UP ALL NIGHT !

STAY SAFE AND SOUND !!!!!



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- North of South -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2016 05:38:20 -0400
Summer greetings to all the People of Paradise,

I was praying and praying.
I prayed that last year is not like this year.

Who knows?

But just maybe, it will be better. As at least one of 
the scourges, 'drought', has not been reported 
way into August! (Like last year?) (Thanks, aunty Jane).

My posts have been like me last year.
Forceful and to the point! Let's have a better year, please?
(These posts are generalizations and a good 
one-on-one email doesn't hurt?)

Attached; Is the pedantic stuff, .... 🤔

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1011 mb low is centered over the eastern Tropical Atlantic
near 13N28W, moving west at 5 kt. The low is in a very moist
area as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. A 700
Mb low is also noted at the same location. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the center. 

A tropical wave is over the western Tropical Atlantic with axis
from 20N51W to 10N51W, moving west at 25 kt.  The wave coincides
with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and is within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water Imagery.  No deep convection is
observed at this time as Saharan dust is located north of 15N.
(Apparently, the weather is good for sailing back to safe harbour.)

God Bless !





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- Welcome Rain
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2016 01:57:47 -0400
Hi everyone,

What a relief!
Some welcome rain is going to affect the 
entire Eastern Caribbean (and soon)!

For most it will be more than a 24 hour event!

My take, (bottom-line of preparation),
is that there is 13% - 33% chance
It may either slow down,
Dip south, (meaning westward),
or linger to become something more substantive.

It's all in the run of things 
as this one is the most northerly so far.

God Bless

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- Rain Rain and More Rain
  • By Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2016 06:10:21 +0000

Good Morning to all,

As I sit at home enjoying the temperature of the atmosphere I reflect on the amount of rain that I witnessed first hand today at work. I left home yesterday in rain, I got soaked at work in the rain and I made my way home during the rain tonight. Today in Trinidad we had rain throughout the country with flash flooding being recorded in the South and Central districts. Most of our flights at the airport were delayed due to the weather conditions which hampered our operations.

Looking at the upcoming weather we are seeing that the ITCZ has dipped back south so weather conditions should settle over the next few hours. Below are a few pictures of the flooding in Trinidad.

Regards,

S Abouhamad




- Protracted Precipitation, .....
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2016 06:03:43 -0400
Hi everyone,

Trinidad (and Tobago), had rain consistently for the last two days.
Just nice refreshing rain that will make some envious.

However, today and tomorrow, the weather pattern 
may prove to be more hazardous than beneficial.

All possible factors taken into account.

God bless

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- HEAVY RAIN IN TRINIDAD
  • By Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2016 00:59:40 +0000

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

14/7/16



Good Evening to all readers of StormCarib. Well today was a day of rain in Trinidad. Early morning rain that was caused by the ITCZ which climbed north this morning. This heavy rainfall caused flooding in some areas.



Regards,

S Abouhamad



- Rainy Season
  • By Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2016 19:51:25 +0000

Trinidad and Tobago

12/07/16



Good afternoon to all the readers of StormCarib. The rainy season is here and i am loving it. Love the sound of rain falling of the roof top as it brings a well deserved cool from the day time heating. Hope you all are getting all those hurricane supplies in order as a precaution. We gotta be ready for any threat that comes our way this year. Ensure that all water courses are cleared of all garbage cause some of these day time showers can be pretty heavy. You all be safe and enjoy.

Regards,

S Abouhamad


- Upper level vs. Lower level Circulation, and DUST !
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 9 Jul 2016 18:56:57 -0400
Good Day,
My fair friends of Paradise,

Apparently in my last post I panicked over upper-level winds.
Not so apparent (to me) was the circular motion was not precipitation.
Can I hear it, for Sahara Dust!

Having gotten over that apology,
I repost NHC so there is no mistake but support.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W, from 16N-05N,
moving westward at 20 knots. Broad inverted troughing at 700 mb
is noted along 50W. Abundant Saharan dust and dry air continues
to surround this wave. Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-
12N between 43W-48W.  

As Isabel said the wave tonight and tomorrow early is two part 
and we have the first (broken up once again by SAL) over us now 
and should have but did not give the Leewards precipitation.

This wave is not hazardous and if it was it's moving too fast to be !

Pray for China,

Thanks,
God bless


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- I don't Understand !
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 3 Jul 2016 08:41:42 -0400
P/Vly, D'go M'rtn,
T'dad. & T'bgo.
Eastern Caribbean
2016-07-03rd. Sun.
08:35 a.m.

People of Paradise,

I would love to bow out to this one.
I really would.
For the simple reason I can't understand.
Secondly nobody else is saying anything!
It will affect others more than T & T.

I ask you have I ever been one to be 'negligent'?

Inserted in this post is a link to make obvious, the obvious, ...


I really don't understand??

God Bless
(Put on YOUR Boots !)

- Surviving, close-knit and Formative system 12 - 36 hrs.
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 1 Jul 2016 05:31:42 -0400
Good morning, good day, good night,
Fair Friends of Paradise,

The weather one person remarked was 'heavenly'.
First time in the rainy season, for over a week,
for the last three years, have we seen 
such 'heavenly' weather with a prospect to continue.

Almost everybody is going to Tobago, the sister isle,
to enjoy the vacation. (The Recession Vacation) ?
Cool dawn periods, midday  breezes, dry afternoon and 
night time highways, always reminded practically everyday,
with a short burst of heavy rain, that we are in the rainy season.

'Paradise' !

(Good for servicing property, plant and equipment).

The dry-air (SAL) has been omnipresent!!
Not even 'The La Nina' wind shear can compete.
Our sentiments and actual support go out to drier territories.

In the midst of all this dry air and fine weather is an approaching system.
Rather, not a system but a formative system. (12 hrs. away).
I can see why they say the Western Caribbean after July 5th 
may have some activity. This one is a 'fighter'.

Now let me see how much colors I can spot in the sky during sunrise.
While the birds sing me back to sleep.

God Bless

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- Simple but Heavy Convection
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2016 03:54:31 -0400
Good Day, Good Night,
Fair Weather Friends
People of Paradise,

That wasn't all that bad, was it?
In addition, it is the reason we can have the beautiful
flora and fauna we have on a perennial basis.

For south Trinidad in particular, 
we can expect localized heavy convection today.
This will widen and spread to the possibility of 
flash flooding in 12 - 36 hours. Not only down south 
but up north, then to islands north of Trinidad and Tobago.

Nothing cyclonic about it! Just simple convection, ....

Attached is the north breakaway from what was over us and
another of the imminent convection.

Exercise caution in marine waters.

God Bless


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- Minor Impact - Ongoing - Peaking 12 - 24 hrs. -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2016 02:55:15 -0400
Happy Father's Day,
People of Paradise,

For the Eastern Caribbean, (not just T&T),

There is an area of precipitation that started yesterday 
and runs from Trinidad to Guadeloupe 
and moving further north. 
The moisture mass has it's main axis 12 hrs. away.
Both the facts that,
Wind shear yesterday continued to dissipate it.
and,
The axis exited the ITCZ after 50 W. Longitude.
mean,
"There's absolutely no reason this should  be a mortal threat."
Just like the weather, seas are manageable if you exercise caution.

It is still early and this is a slow moving system,
so it is not advisable to let our guards down till Tuesday morning.

Now to enjoy Father's day, 
children are the most precious, rewarding and spiritually uplifting
thing that God has allowed us to procreate, ....

God Bless



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- Precautions in Place, for next 4 - 5 days time, ...
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2016 20:28:16 -0400
People of Paradise,

We have the following in NHC words not mine.

How you react and what you do is 
'Do a dry run and prepare! (and Pray)!'
It is not 'Paranoia'.

My forecast is The eastern Caribbean 
will have some sort of moderate to heavy 
Impact in 4 - 5 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 26W
from 2N-10N moving west 20 TO 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is
embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is from
1N-6N between 26W-32W. 

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
12N43W to 5N47W moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb trough noted in the
global models and a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. 

Tropical wave is inland over South America along 70W moving west
near 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak
surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. No associated deep convection in the Caribbean waters.

Tropical wave in the western Caribbean extends along 82W/83W
south of 15N across Panama into the east Pacific region moving
west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a
700 mb trough noted in the global models and is embedded within
a broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south
of 16N west of 82W to inland over Central America.

God Bless




- Safe and Sound
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 3 Jun 2016 16:08:57 -0400
Hi, good people of Paradise,

Attached is my unexaggerated view of the start of 'Wet Season' 2016.

Also, a few pics of my sister's craft 'Exody'
at a family get-together in New York
after circumnavigating the tropical world
on their way back home to Scotland.

Everything is safe and sound and
we can expect 3 - 4 quiet pleasant days
if not 5 - 7 , (at least in this neck of the waters).

God Bless
and 
Thanks

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- Rally, ... !
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 26 May 2016 15:46:36 -0400
Let's say a prayer of reprieve,
for The Bahamas,
recovering from last year.

(North, South Carolina and Georgia).

God Bless !

- Reprieve - 36 hrs.
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 16 May 2016 11:55:37 -0400
Good Day, Good Everything, People of Paradise,

The branches of the vine never gets more than it could bear.
In like manner, we have a 36 hour reprieve before 
something similar to the last three days reoccur.

Listen, I really don't want to know if I am right or whatever?
Because it's not for money or to help me personally.
And I think you should do the same.

We have enough trouble procuring tools and equipment
and keeping them working. So let's work on that instead.

God Bless


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- Consistent Convection
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 12 May 2016 03:20:42 -0400
Good Day, Good Everything, People of Paradise

One can safely say,

"Today is a day to take out your boots."

God Bless

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- First True Event
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 7 May 2016 08:10:58 -0400
People of Paradise,

Within a few hours, specially for Trinidad and Tobago first of all,
We will have a system that resembles the rainy season of June 
and July and August.

The good part is it will be short - lived.
That is the intensity will be short-lived.

Reason: This one will have breeze at times below 32 mph.
And seas will be un-friendly.

The above forecast is over 50% probable and endorsed by others.
Less forecasted and could prove dangerous,
is if after initial impact it spreads and lingers.
This is hardly likely !

God bless


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