Antigua - Local Reports (Caribbean Hurricane Network)

With FIONA gone, GASTON has us in his crosshairs! The tracks will once again bring him pretty close to Antigua and Barbuda, this week has certainly returned our reputation as Hurricane Alley as we have four storms develop in 11 days. Windguru.cz indicates 60knots gusting to 74 knots on Tuesday Sep 7th at 2000UTC 4PM local. They have accurate over the last two storms so this time we are in for some wind if they are correct! Alan Scholl

It has been either a very quiet night or have been sleeping very soundly. It just started to rain though very light.I heard some thunder in the distance and a few lightning flashes were also just seen followed by more thunder. 5AM posItion is 17.4N 60.2W Alan Scholl

Power returned at 11:40pm last night after a 32 hour absence. As soon as the watches and warnings were dropped for EARL we now have FIONA and another Invest right behind her wagging tail. I hope they maintain their paths and strengths, but I do dread the one that will urn the bullseye right toward us. Alan Scholl

Conditions are calm, but hot. The sky is clear, earlier today the wind was coming out of the north/ northwest. Got some basic emergency supplies, will do last checks tomorrow, dig in and await EARLs passage! Stay safe and good luck everyone. Alan Scholl

The state of the Atlantic gave me a flashback to 1995 when LUIS, MARILYN and OPAL all sat there slowly cruising across the pond headed our way. The 2010 trio seems to be a little more north of us but will still keep a close watch on the expected northward turn by EARL. Today we had a quite a downpour keeping the farmers and garners happy but possibly a few frowns from the sunbathes and beach goers. September could be an interesting month, be in a state of readiness! Alan Scholl

lissette in Dominica is right. Louis hit us in Antigua and Barbuda very hard in 1995 and went on to Nevis, St. Kitts, St. Barts,St.martin and the VI. Am in sunny,hot London. Back manana to some cool breezes. Sent from my BlackBerry® device from Digicel

DON’T LIKE TO USE UP YOUR STORAGE GERT AND DAVE BUT THOUGHT THIS INTERESTING. THE SEA HERE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY WARM AND CALM ALL YEAR

Issued: Saturday, May 1, 2010 120 pm EDT

Outlook

I decided to write up an update to the seasonal forecast I wrote back in early March. I am very concerned that we're in for a very, very busy hurricane season.

The main feature that is very worrying to me is the latest European model forecast of Sea Level Pressure Anomalies and Precipitation Anomalies in the Atlantic. The forecast continues to call for well below normal pressures and well above normal precipitation totals during the July to September, 2010 timeframe. What this means in terms of tropical storm and hurricane activity is that lower pressures mean lighter winds and less wind shear. In addition, the lighter winds and less wind shear will also mean more available moisture and in the end warmer sea surface temperatures.

One other thing to note, note the above average sea level pressures in the East Pacific (Dark red). This means that the air will be sinking in the east Pacific and rising in the Atlantic Basin. Rising air promotes more storminess.

Now, one thing to note is that the European model forecasted negative conditions for the 2009 Hurricane Season at this time last year and it did quite well with that forecast. So, there is some merit and credibility that the 2010 Hurricane Season may be quite active.

There are several hurricane seasons that are a close match to what this hurricane season may be like. They are 1958, 1964, 1966, 1969, 1995, 1998 and 2005. As for potential risk areas, I have attached a map outlining all of the tracks during the 7 analog years. A few areas stand out for higher concentration of landfalls during those 7 analog seasons. These areas include eastern North Carolina and the outer banks of North Carolina, south Florida and the northwest Bahamas, the central Gulf coast (from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle), the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands and finally the northwest Caribbean, including the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Elsewhere, along the US coastline and in the Caribbean, don't let your guard down as you are also at risk this season of a tropical storm or hurricane.

Sum of storm tracks of 7 analog seasons (1958, 1964, 1966, 1969, 1995, 1998, 2005):

Highest Threat Areas For 2010 Hurricane Season:

I suspect that we will have our first tropical storm sometime in early June. The reason why is that the first storm of the season formed in early June during 5 out of the 7 analog years. Also, with sea surface temperatures running above normal and forecast lower than normal surface pressures; I strongly believe we will have our first storm in early June, if not before then.

As for my forecast numbers for this year:
16 Named Storms
9 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

The forecast numbers are based on the idea that the Atlantic will remain warmer than normal and that the current weakening El Nino will be neutral during the heart of the hurricane season. The current Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential map is displayed below and it shows plenty of heat potential already for the formation and intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Sea Surface Temperature Map:

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Map:

So, to sum it up, I am looking at a hurricane season coming up that will be very active. I expect neutral ENSO conditions throughout the heart of the hurricane season. In addition, above average to much above average ocean temperatures and below average sea level pressures point to an active to very active hurricane season with the highest risk areas in eastern North Carolina and the outer banks of North Carolina, south Florida and the northwest Bahamas, the central Gulf coast (from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle), the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands and finally the northwest Caribbean, including the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and the Cayman Islands.

This outlook should be the catalyst to start purchasing supplies and putting your hurricane kit together during May. Also, take a close look at your homeowners or renters insurance and ensure that you are properly covered for damages or god forbid total loss. Also, if you don't have flood insurance and live in a hurricane zone, I strongly urge you to consider taking on flood insurance. Your homeowners/renters insurance does not cover for floods caused by storm surge or river flooding.

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Outlook