Tropical Storm Oscar

Public Advisory: Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 ...OSCAR IS BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 74.1W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 74.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a faster northeastward motion is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar will be moving away from the Bahamas later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Oscar could dissipate later today, or merge with an extratropical low pressure system within the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas today. RAINFALL: Across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are expected through today. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Discussion: TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Oscar has had difficulty locating a center this morning. Data from the plane and visible satellite images suggest that the circulation is becoming elongated. Also, the system may have weakened below tropical storm strength, but we will wait for an upcoming scatterometer pass that will provide a wider swath of wind data before downgrading it. Thus, for the moment, the intensity is being maintained at 35 kt. Nonetheless, since all of the stronger winds are occurring east of the center, the Tropical Storm Warning for the Central Bahamas is being discontinued. Given the poor definition of the center, the initial motion is an uncertain 040/10 kt. Oscar should accelerate northeastward along the eastern side of a mid- to upper-level trough during the next day or so. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous NHC prediction in 24-36 hours. Within the next couple of days, the global models indicate that the trough will cause baroclinic cyclogenesis to occur near or north of Oscar. The resulting extratropical surface low is likely to absorb or merge with the tropical cyclone or its remnants. The atmospheric environment, consisting of strong shear and relatively dry air, is expected to remain hostile for the maintenance of a tropical cyclone, so no strengthening is anticipated. Indeed, it is possible that Oscar could dissipate before it interacts with the new extratropical cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Localized flash flooding will be possible today across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. With rainfall easing across Cuba, flooding from rainfall which has already occurred could remain a concern for the next several days. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 22.9N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH TS 12H 23/0000Z 24.7N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH TS 24H 23/1200Z 27.8N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH TS...POST-TROPICAL 36H 24/0000Z 31.5N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH TS...POST-TROPICAL 48H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch Note: Storm classification added by stormcarib.com TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...

Wind Speed: PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYAGUANA 34 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Forecast/Advisory: TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.1W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.1W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.6W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.7N 72.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 27.8N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 31.5N 68.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 74.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH