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- All Quiet and Dry
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 12 Aug 2018 14:07:34 +0000
Good morning all,

As usual up in the foothills of Nevis Peak it is a "Sunny Sunday" with a good breeze.

The mid-Atlantic weather disturbance highlighted by the US National Hurricane Center, stalled and has now fizzled out due to adverse conditions.

A passing Tropical Wave on Friday/Saturday only gave us a thunderstorm and 3.5 mm of rain on Friday. So things continue to be pretty dry around here. The haze due to Saharan Dust has mainly cleared so I can now see the sea/sky horizon.

Tropical Waves continue to leave the West African Coast and cross the Atlantic to the Caribbean. Their development continues to be curtailed by lower than average sea surface temperatures and wind shear. With a little help from dry air from the Saharan Air Layer and it's associated dust.

For the week ahead stable weather conditions are expectheted to prevail. Two tropical waves are expected to generate cloudy periods and at least a moderate chance of showers on Tuesday and the other towards the end of the week. It would be nice to have some rain.

Attached: Sunny Sunday in Nevis.

Regards,

Frank Goodwill

Pond Hill Weather Station

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISAINTGE361

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- All Quiet and Dry
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 12 Aug 2018 13:47:01 +0000
Good morning all,

As usual up in the foothills of Nevis Peak it is a "Sunny Sunday" with a good breeze.

The mid-Atlantic weather disturbance highlighted by the US National Hurricane Center, stalled and has now fizzled out due to adverse conditions.

A passing Tropical Wave on Friday/Saturday only gave us a thunderstorm and 3.5 mm of rain on Friday. So things continue to be pretty dry around here. The haze due to Saharan Dust has mainly cleared so I can now see the sea/sky horizon.

Tropical Waves continue to leave the West African Coast and cross the Atlantic to the Caribbean. Their development continues to be curtailed by lower than average sea surface temperatures and wind shear. With a little help from dry air from the Saharan Air Layer and it's associated dust.

For the week ahead stable weather conditions are expectheted to prevail. Two tropical waves are expected to generate cloudy periods and at least a moderate chance of showers on Tuesday and the other towards the end of the week. It would be nice to have some rain.

Attached: Sunny Sunday in Nevis.

Regards,

Frank Goodwill

Pond Hill Weather Station

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISAINTGE361

Attachment: IMG_20180812_090855_283.jpg
Description: IMG_20180812_090855_283.jpg


- Things Waking Up For Next Week?
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 10 Aug 2018 12:35:25 +0000
Good morning all,

Things might be waking up for next week!

From the US National Hurricane Center.

CZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather is located about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.  Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some gradual development while the system moves
slowly west over the next few days.  By the middle of next week, stronger upper-level winds could limit the chance for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

See attached 5 day forecast.


Image


Pond Hill, Nevis Weather Station

Outlook for Android




- Saharan Dust Eased Off
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 9 Aug 2018 03:10:32 +0000
Good night all,

Had a light shower very early Wednesday morning, yielding 0.3 mm of rain. Today (Wednesday) the Saharan Air Layer and its associated dust has eased off somewhat. A comparison of Tuesday's and Wednesday's noon time weather views shows the subtle difference. A little more blue colour to the sky.

My car was covered with a little more dust that was washed out of the air by the shower mentioned.

Regards,

Frank Goodwill


Image


Image


Pond Hill, Nevis Weather Station

Outlook for Android




- Sunny and Hazy.... still
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 8 Aug 2018 06:03:03 +0000

Good night all,

 

Another plume of Saharan Dust (dry air) has reached us which is stifling any shower activity. The dry air continues to keep any associated  Tropical Wave activity to a minimum in this part of the Caribbean. The last Tropical wave that passed by on Sunday produced 1.5 mm of rain in our area – not a lot.

 

The weather will continue to remain dry and stable due to the presence of a ridge of high pressure and the Saharan Dust. As a result skies will remain hazy, fair to partly cloudy, with low chances for showers. Another Tropical Wave passing through the area will increase the chances for cloudiness and showers to moderate on Friday and Saturday.

 

  1. Attached a couple of noon time weather pictures from Tuesday.
  2. After the short sharp showers on Sunday I have included a picture of my red car hood showing some Saharan Dust that had been “washed” out of the air by the rain.
  3. Final picture is of Potwork’s Dam Reservoir in Antigua (credit: Antigua Met Services). Designed to hold 1 billion gallons of water and is seasonal, it demonstrates how dry the wet season has been so far.  To quote Antigua Met Services “Dry as Chips”!

 

Another named Storm has come into play – “Debby”. Another one to tick off the list but will soon fade away as it moves across the colder waters of the North Atlantic. No land fall/impact.

 

The only storm to provide some excitement so far this Hurricane Season has been “Beryl” that gave us about 30mm of rain and took out the grid supply in my area for 10 hours due to a lightning strike. You don’t have to have a hurricane on your doorstep to have problems!

 

The latest forecast (2nd August 2018) from the  Colorado State University.

 

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2018

 

We continue to forecast a below-average Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic remains cooler than normal, and there is a relatively high potential that a weak El Niño develops in the next several months. The probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean is below normal due to the forecast for a below-average season. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them.

They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

 

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/08/2018-08.pdf

 

 

Hurricanes and Their Impact

 

We always focus on the physical damage of hurricanes but there is always the mental health side after the event. If your interested please find a link to the UK Guardian Newspaper about Puerto Rico after last year’s hurricanes.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/07/despair-and-anxiety-puerto-ricos-living-emergency-as-a-mental-health-crisis-unfolds

 

Sorry if this is a bit of a long one, but I thought the content might be interesting.

 

Regards,

 

Frank Goodwill

 

 

Pond hill Weather Station:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISAINTGE361

 

Sent from Mail for Windows 10

 

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- July NOAA Weather Date Report
  • By "Harry W. Hallstrom" <hwh888 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 2 Aug 2018 07:28:37 -0400
Greetings All,

Attached July's weather data.

Interesting data this year, I looked back at July 2017 data and this year were almost half as many days above 90. Last year most were 92 F - 96 F.
The big High pressure sitting over the mid Atlantic keep funneling cooling air off the Atlantic our way.

Regards,

Harry


Attachment: July 2018 - NOAA Weather Data.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document


- All Quiet - What Next?
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 1 Aug 2018 12:24:20 +0000
Good morning all,

It seems like it is sunny days with some cloud with the odd overnight shower at the moment.

The Colorado State University are due to publish their final hurricane season forecast tomorrow, 2nd August. It will be interesting to see how they see the season progressing. The forecast they produced early on started out as an 'Active' season, then it became a 'Normal to near normal' season. These forecasts are interesting but are only advisory.

A quiet season so far due mainly to the Saharan Dust, lower than average sea surface temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic and the presence of wind shear  The Tropical Wave conveyor belt has been rolling along from West Africa to the Caribbean, but conditions have not been favourable for cyclonic development so far. These conditions have also resulted in a Wet Season with lower rainfall than normal, so far, in the Leeward Islands.

The following link shows another day in paradise. Yesterday's morning view out to sea from Charlestown.
As the camera pans to the right haze obscures the view of St. Kitts. This due to the Saharan Dust which has been with us at varying intensity for a while now.

https://youtu.be/5eCJkPL3Mbg

Regards,

Frank Goodwill

Pond Hill Weather Station

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISAINTGE361

- Cloud and Sunshine
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 31 Jul 2018 03:09:17 +0000
Good night all,

The Tropical Wave that passed over us Sunday into Monday gave us some fleeting showers. The wind picked up from about midday Monday, giving some strong gusts. Overall it has been mainly sunny with some cloud and a little hazy.

The Saharan Dust is still around but is not as intense as in recent weeks.

Attached is a couple of sunset photos from today on Nevis.

Stable weather conditions are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, with partly cloudy skies with slight possibility of moderate showers.

Thursday afternoon into Friday will be unsettled as anothet Tropical Wave moves into the area. This will probably increase the chances of showers.

So far the Hurricane season has remained quiet and this is not unusual. Most years, the first two months of the season (June and July) are typically benign. June averages only one named storm every other year, and July has averaged one named storm per year since 1950. Then comes August and it's almost as if a switch is flipped.

August sees more than three times the number of named storms as July, and almost double the number of June and July storms combined. As August progresses, the number of named storms steadily increases on average.

So August is the time to start to keep an eye on the forecasts.

Regards,

Frank Goodwill

Pond Hill Weather Station.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISAINTGE361

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- Hazy Sunshine and Cloud.
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 26 Jul 2018 22:07:31 +0000
Good afternoon all,

We didn't get much rain from the passing Tropical Wave on Tuesday and Wednesday. There were a couple of scattered showers around the island giving a few millimetres locally. The Saharan Air Layer continues to give hazy conditions with little shower activity. Today has been cloudy with some intervals of hazy sunshine.

High pressure remains dominant with an atmosphere low in moisture, this will result in a low chance of showers for the next two days. On Sunday, a weak tropical wave entering the region will bring some moisture and instability. This could increase the chance of showers to a moderate level or around 60 percent.

Thereafter, a dry mass of air along with an increase in Saharan dust will keep the chances of showers low with mostly hazy conditions. Easterly and moderate to fresh winds will continue to prevail.

A further two Tropical Waves are presently in the Atlantic heading towards the Caribbean.

Attached is a couple of photos from today's late afternoon weather.



Image


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Pond Hill, Nevis Weather Station
Outlook for Android


- Brightened Up
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 23 Jul 2018 15:17:16 +0000
Good morning all,

Things have brightened up today (Monday) as the Saharan Dust is giving us a break. We had a few showers on Sunday but nothing to get excited about.

There should be an increased chance of shower activity as Tuesday arrives with the presence of a Tropical Wave.

Two more Tropical Waves are are in the Atlantic approaching the Caribbean. It looks as if we will see out July with little chance of Tropical Cyclone activity.

Attached is the view from the Nevis Peak foothills with a clear sea/sky horizon, but with the occasional dark cloud passing from the east threatening a shower.

Regards,

Frank Goodwill

Pond Hill Weather Station

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISAINTGE361

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- Dry and Dusty
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 22 Jul 2018 01:17:25 +0000
Good evening all,

A weak low level trough could generate some scattered showers during early Sunday. Partly cloudy skies along with an abundance of upper level clouds will prevail over the next few days. There will be a moderate chance of showers. On Tuesday, a tropical wave will also move across the area. Moisture and instability ahead of this wave could see some unsettled weather overnight Monday into Tuesday. In the wake of this wave, hazy conditions will once again become evident as concentrations of Saharan Dust are expected to once again increase. Otherwise, the high pressure system will dominate the area keeping weather conditions relatively dry and stable.
There is another Tropical Wave in the Atlantic approaching the Caribbean. Present conditions of dry air and wind shear will continue to inhibit Cyclone formation.

Anyway, weather aside it's Mango time on Nevis and I have been making the most of it.

See attached photos

Regards,

Frank Goodwill


https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISAINTGE361

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- Onward to the weekend.
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 20 Jul 2018 00:44:10 +0000
Good afternoon all,

The Tropical Wave that passed us by today (Thursday) gave us a couple of light showers giving less than 2mm of rain in the Nevis Peak foothills.

The next pulse of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and accociated dust is with us. Therefore we are back to hazy conditions. The strong breezes are due to ease of as the weekend approaches.

The next Tropical Wave is making its way across the Atlantic, and should be with us on Sunday. This again will increase the chance of shower activity and cloudiness.

With the SAL supplying dry air over the region, it will reduce the chances of Tropical Cyclone activity.

As we press on towards the end of July, we edge closer to the busy period of late August and September of the Hurricane Season. So we wait to see how things develop.

Attached are a couple of photos of the cloudy day on Nevis today.

Regards,

Frank Goodwill



https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISAINTGE361

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- Showery Sunday
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 15 Jul 2018 22:11:36 +0000
A pleasant Sunday to all,

A tropical wave is generating weak unstable conditions today and into Monday. This has resulted in cloudy spells and some scattered showers. Following this wave hazy conditions will resume due to Saharan dust. Later on Thursday, another tropical wave will move across the area and will result in an increase in showery weather. Otherwise, moderate to fresh breezes associated with the Atlantic high pressure system will transport pockets of moisture across the area possibly triggering occasional cloudy spells with, at most, a moderate chance of showers while keeping sea conditions slightly above normal during the week. However, only a caution for small craft operators will be in effect.

Attached: Cloudy afternoon.
Radar picture of scattered showers in the area.

Regards,

Frank Goodwill

Image




Image



Pond Hill, Nevis Weather Station

Outlook for Android




- Beryl - Nevis Monday 11am
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Jul 2018 15:27:14 +0000
Good morning all,

The remnent of Beryl has passed us by with the rain stopping at about 9am.

The sky is cloudy with a breeze blowing.

NEVLEC are busy putting the areas where the electricity was knocked out back on. Jones' Estate area is back on.

I am sure the plants enjoyed the soaking and that Nevis will look greener after the long dry spell.

Attached:

Picture of the Guadeloupe rain radar at 9:45am. Sky's looking a lot clearer.

A couple of pictures of the weather view on Nevis at about 11am


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Image



Image


Regards,

Frank Goodwill


Pond Hill, Nevis Weather Station

Outlook for Android




- Beryl - Nevis Monday 6am
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Jul 2018 14:29:38 +0000
Good morning from a very damp Nevis.

We have had about 3 hours of rain this morning of various intensity. Looking at the Guadeloupe rain radar we are due for some more. We seem to be in a rain corridor at the moment.

Attached is the rain radar picture at 6am with St Kitts and Nevis in the top left hand corner. The weather is moving in a general West-northwest direction.

Unlike earlier no thunder and lightning and the wind has calmed down.

I have been informed that power went off in the Jones' Estate area at 2:15am.

Power still of in my location.

Also attached is a picture of a wet and misty start to the day.



Image



Image



Pond Hill, Nevis Weather Station

Outlook for Android




- Beryl - Nevis Monday 3:30am
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Jul 2018 08:00:39 +0000
Good morning all,

After a pretty violent 30 minutes things have calmed down. Now getting some light showers with cloud lightning and occasional rumbles of thunder.

NEVLEC electricity is still off but just in my locality. Looks like a minor feeder suffered a lightning strike between the Pond Hill community centre up to the Dunbar Mill then down towards the Hermitage Hotel. This feeder is very exposed as it runs along a ridge on the Zetlands Road (for those who know the area).

Always a problem living up in the Nevis Peak foothills.

The weather station is down as it is not on backup.

Latest rain radar picture 3:30 am shows St Kitts and Nevis in an oasis of calm before the next area of rain arrives.

(St Kitts and Nevis in the top left hand corner).

Regards,

Frank Goodwill


Image




Pond Hill, Nevis Weather Station
Outlook for Android


- Beryl - Nevis Monday 2:30 am
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Jul 2018 06:52:38 +0000
Early good morning,

The first real impact of Beryl has arrived with a heavy downpour, gusty winds and some thunder and lightning. Large clap of thunder with lining has just taken our NEVLEC power grid down in the area (Gingerland Feeder).

Latest rain radar attached.

St Kitts and Nevis in the top left hand corner. Present rain etc shown in bright blue.

Regards,

Frank Goodwill


Image



Outlook for Android


- Beryl - Nevis into Monday
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Jul 2018 04:34:19 +0000

Good night all,

We haven't had any real impact from the leftovers of Beryl as yet. It looks as if Guadeloupe has experienced pouring rain with winds of 28 mph gusting to 50 mph.

All being well the heavy rain should track just to the south of Nevis during the early hours of Monday. We will probably experience some periods of showers with gusting winds looking at the Guadeloupe rain radar.

Attached photo of rain radar. Guadeloupe in the centre (yellow shows heavy rain). St Kitts and Nevis are in the top left hand corner.

Being a 36 sq miles island rain showers can be a bit of a hit or miss affair.

Up in the Nevis Peak foothills we are experiencing some wind gusts and a couple of light showers. To be honest the wind doesn't seem that much different from the trade winds we have experienced over the past few days.

Regards,
Frank Goodwill



Image





Pond Hill, Nevis Weather Station

Outlook for Android




PNG image


- Beryl continues to weaken. Nevis Sunday 8pm
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Jul 2018 00:28:39 +0000
Good night all,

The strength of Beryl continues to decline.

Beryl has dissipated and is now an open tropical wave. The remnants of Beryl will bring some rain and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight.

The first light rain shower has arrived in Nevis. The Guadeloupe rain radar shows an area of rain in the vicinity of Guadeloupe and Dominica, moving in a west-northwest direction.

Attached photos:
Nevisian sunset today.
View out towards the Caribbean Sea.
Guadeloupe rain radar 8pm

Regards,

Frank Goodwill


Image




Image



Image


Pond Hill, Nevis Weather Station

Outlook for Android






- Nevis Update
  • By "Harry W. Hallstrom" <hwh888 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 8 Jul 2018 17:22:13 -0400
Greetings All,

Much to credit of NHC good data reads Beryl has been downgraded to a tropical wave.
Satellite images show wind sheer has ripped apart the storm.
Still can expect rain and some gusty winds.

At present its sunny and pleasant with a 15 kt breeze.

Regards,

Harry



- TS Beryl - Nevis 2pm Sunday
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 8 Jul 2018 18:45:47 +0000
Good afternoon all,

Not a very "Sunny Sunday" in Nevis at the moment. Cloud is starting to build up and it is a little hazy. It has been hazy for some time now mainly due to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and the associated dust.
(See attached picture).

TS Beryl continues its approach though it appears to be weakening after its short period of being a hurricane.

Looking at the Guadeloupe radar, shower bands are approaching the islands.
(See attached - St Kitts and Nevis are in the top left corner of the picture).

This will probably result in some gusty tropical downpours.

Regards,

Frank Goodwill


Pond Hill, Nevis Weather Station
Image


Image





Outlook for Android


- Sunday 5am Data
  • By "Harry W. Hallstrom" <hwh888 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 8 Jul 2018 08:05:38 -0400
Greetings All,

Just had a look at NHC data 5am report.
The storm is approx 500 mi SE of NEV/SKB moving in a Westerly/North direction at 290 deg (270 deg is due West)
Path is projected to pass approx 90 miles directly South of NEV/SKB at 5am Monday.

Winds.......10% of 35-50 MPH Gusts in our area.
Sustained speeds approx 22 mph this time Monday 5-8 am.
Decreasing rather quickly as storm moves away.

Regards,

Harry

- Hurricane Beryl Analysis #2
  • By "Harry W. Hallstrom" <hwh888 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 7 Jul 2018 07:38:38 -0400
Latest NHC data Saturday 5 am............

Path hasn't changed much.
36 hrs (Sunday 5 pm) puts Beryl 400 mi SE of NEV / SKB
48 hrs (Monday 5 am) puts Beryl 180 mi S of NEV / SKB
Path projection, direction change from 270 deg to 285 deg

Winds have been lowered a bit to 21 mph sustained with gusts to 33 mph (Monday 8 am)

Regards,

Harry



- Hurricane Beryl Analysis
  • By "Harry W. Hallstrom" <hwh888 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2018 17:34:00 -0400
Greetings All,

Been looking at latest data from NHC and this is what I conclude........

36 hrs from now (Sunday 5pm) storm will be 378 miles SE of NEV
Closest point as she passes to the South will be in range of 200 mi South.

Projected winds Monday 8am 25 MPH sustained with gusts to 40 MPH.

Based on NHC and path remaining 270 deg westward this is what NEV & SKB can expect.

Regards,

Harry



- NHC Key Message TS Beryl
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2018 03:57:36 +0000
Good night all,

Key message from US National Hurricane Center attached. 

Regards,

Frank Goodwill



https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISAINTGE361

Attachment: 023407_key_messages_sm.png
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- Nevis NOAA Weather Date for June 2018
  • By "Harry W. Hallstrom" <hwh888 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2018 19:54:56 -0400
Greetings All,

Attached weather station data for month of June.

Regards,

Harry

Attachment: June 2018 - NOAA Weather Data.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document


- Disturbance in the Atlantic. Outlook NHC update
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2018 21:17:53 +0000

Image


Good afternoon all,

US National Hurricane Center has cranked up the forecast for the disturbance crossing the Atlantic (see 2)
A quick development as they have issued a special 5pm weather outlook

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
455 PM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of the low pressure area west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located within a few hundred miles to the south of Bermuda are associated with a trough of lowpressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form before the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States.  The system is then forecast to interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with asmall area of low pressure and a tropical wave located several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has becomebetter organized during the past few hours.  Some additional
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. By the weekend, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Regards,

Frank Goodwill

Pond Hill, Nevis Weather Station

Outlook for Android




- Into July and off we go.
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2018 05:46:26 +0000
Good morning all. 

A little reminder that we are in July the second month of the hurricane season with this 5 day forecast.

On average there is usually one named storm in July. Hopefully (2) will fizzle out as it moves into unfavourable conditions. But always worth keeping an eye on.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of cloudiness and showers remains a few hundred miles
southeast of Bermuda. Although this disturbance is currently
disorganized, environmental conditions could become more conducive
for a low pressure system to form by late this week in the area
southwest of Bermuda.  The system is then forecast to move generally
northward over the weekend and begin interacting with a frontal
system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with
tropical wave and a small area of low pressure is located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although
satellite images show some signs of organization, the disturbance
is moving west-northwestward toward an area unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila
Regards,

Frank Goodwill

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISAINTGE361

Attachment: two_atl_5d0.png
Description: two_atl_5d0.png


- Quiet June
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 26 Jun 2018 17:00:55 +0000
Good day all,

The weather in the first month of the hurricane season has been quiet.

For the final week in June we have a good dose of Saharan Dust over the island, bringing dry air. The sea surface temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic remain below average for this time of year. The tropical waves that have passed over us have struggled to give us any meaningful amounts of rainfall.

The number of tropical waves coming of off the West African coast has eased this week (see attached) and there will be plenty of Saharan Dust about (shown in red on the attached).

Hazy views from Nevis due to the dust are also attached.

Regards,

Frank Goodwill

Attachment: splitE_crop_325x325.jpg
Description: splitE_crop_325x325.jpg

Attachment: USA.gif
Description: USA.gif

Attachment: 1530031483047.jpg
Description: 1530031483047.jpg

Attachment: IMG_20180626_124345.jpg
Description: IMG_20180626_124345.jpg


- Brightened Up
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 23 Jun 2018 18:35:04 +0000
Good day all,

Hot and humid Thursday turned into a cooler and wet Friday which has become a hot hazy Saturday.

Had about half an inch (12mm) of rain on Friday.

It is still considered a dry start to the wet season. See the information/article published by Antigua Met Services:

https://anumetservice.wordpress.com/2018/06/22/no-end-in-sight-for-drought-hit-antigua/

Also the Nevis Water Department issued a reminder about water conservation yesterday (Friday):

"The Nevis Water Department implores the General public to exercise water conservation practices in and around the home and work place."

https://www.facebook.com/notes/nevis-water-department/water-conservation-tips/449238618836142/

Regards,

Frank Goodwill

Pond Hill, Nevis.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISAINTGE361

Attachment: 1529777448618.jpg
Description: 1529777448618.jpg


- Tropical Waves and SAL
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 19 Jun 2018 17:58:12 +0000
Good day all,

Dry and dusty Saharan Air Level is still an issue and not unusual for this time of year.

Antigua Met Services posted the following:

Saharan Dust Air Quality Bulletin
Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services  10:30 AM Tuesday 19 June 2018  

Air Quality Index (AQI) Based on Particulate Matter 2.5 (PM2.5) and 10 (PM10)

Concentration   Synopsis:

A new surge in Saharan Dust continues to stream across the area. It will continue to do so through Sunday June 24. Air quality will remain at moderate levels for the period, but at the lower end of the scale. Visibility will be slightly reduced.    

Alert Level: II   Location: Antigua and Barbuda
AQI: 50 to 65  
AQI category: Moderate  
Timing: Until Sunday 
Sensitive groups: People with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children are the groups most at risk.
Health implications: Air quality is acceptable; however, for some pollutants there may be a moderate health concern for a very small number of people who are unusually sensitive to air pollution.  
Caution: Unusually sensitive people such as active children and adults, and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma, should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.

Keep monitoring.   Dale Destin

Sea surface temperatures are below average for this time of year in the Tropical Atlantic. With the dry air this helps to reduce the formation of any tropical disturbance in the Atlantic.

The old tropical wave conveyor belt from West Africa to the Americas is working well (see attached). Conditions at present are not favourable regarding tropical storm development but it does make for cloudy days.


Image


Overcast, dry and humid best describes the weather on Nevis today.


Image



Keep watching as we move further into the hurricane season.

Frank Goodwill


Pond Hill, Nevis Weather Station
Outlook for Android


- April NOAA Weather DAte
  • By "Harry W. Hallstrom" <hwh888 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 6 May 2018 10:40:10 -0400
Attached Nevis weather station data for April.

Regards,

Harry


Attachment: April 2018 - NOAA Weather Data.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document


- Wet afternoon
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 17 Apr 2018 02:30:06 +0000
Good night all,

We have had to odd shower overnight recently, but this afternoon the showers/drizzle have given us some wet stuff. Measured about 10.2mm of rain today and the temperature dropped to about 22C, so a little chilly in the Nevis Peak foothills.

The weather had been more unsettled further south.

Nice to have this little break in the 'dry season'.

Regards,

Frank Goodwill


- Another Year......
  • By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Apr 2018 08:50:44 +0000
Good morning everyone,

In Nevis it is still pretty dry which is no surprise as it is the "Dry Season". The cruise season is at an end and the "Snow Birds" do their usual migration north.

The forecasts for the 2018 hurricane season have started to appear and indicate storm activity to be above average.

I have attached the storm names for this year and also some good words from Dr Rick Knabb as a thought for the season.

Regards,

Frank Goodwill

Pond Hill, Nevis.
Weather Station

Weather Cams

Outlook for Android


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JPEG image

JPEG image


- Nevis March Weather NOAA Report
  • By "Harry W. Hallstrom" <hwh888 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2018 09:14:09 -0400
Greetings All,

Attached data for March.
As recorded data shows, very little in way of rain for the month.
Cisterns are running low and from look of satellite images & patterns it will continue into April.

Regards,

Harry


Attachment: Mar 2018 - NOAA Weather Data.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document


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