Tropical Weather Discussion

- as issued by NHC/TPC -

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Tropical Weather Discussion (NHC/TPC):
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
751 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.


A broad area of low pressure, a Central American Gyre, is 
centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is from 14N-18N between 85W-89W to
include central Honduras and Belize. This system is expected to 
move west- northwest toward Belize. The probability of tropical 
cyclone development during the next is moderate, but the potential
for heavy rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides over areas of 
mountainous terrain is high. Refer to your local meteorological 
service for specific information on this potentially dangerous 
weather pattern.

A cold front extends from southern Louisiana across the NW Gulf 
to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Strong high pressure in cold 
air behind the front has induced gale force winds south of 26N 
near the front, based on scatterometer data. Winds are expected to
diminish below gale in the SW Gulf by Wed night.


A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 24W from 03N- 
14N, moving W at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a distinct maximum 
in moisture around the wave axis. Isolated moderate convection is
from 06N-12N between 17W-26W. 

A tropical wave axis is along 58W from 05N-21N, moving west at 15
kt. A 700 mb trough is depicted by model analyses with the wave, 
and there is a local maximum in TPW. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 08N-17N between 48W-58W.  
Moisture associated with this wave will enhance showers and 
thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles today through Wednesday, 
with this activity spreading into the eastern Caribbean later in 
the week.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 71W south of 
21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 90-120 nm of the wave axis. It is expected to become 
diffuse and ill-defined within the next 24-36 hours as it moves 
into the western Caribbean.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N17W 
to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 09N25W to the coast of South
America near 00N48W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm either 
side of the ITCZ. 


A 1014 mb low is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 28N95W.
A quasi-stationary front extends E of the low to S Louisiana near
30N90W. A cond front extends S from the low to the Bay of Campeche
near 21N97W. A gale is W of front, south of 26N. The remainder of
the Gulf has mainly 10-15 kt E to SE surface winds, and mostly
fair weather. The front is expected to stall over the northern 
Gulf near the mouth of the Mississippi, while the western portion 
of the front pushes further southward into the Bay of Campeche. 


A tropical wave over the central Caribbean is forecast to become 
diffuse and ill-defined by Wed morning. Another tropical wave 
is forecast to move into the eastern Caribbean Wed.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is over Nicaragua, Costa 
Rica, and the SW Caribbean from 08N-15N between 81W-85W. Similar
convection is over N Colombia from 04N-10N between 72W-78W. 

See the special features section above for more information 
about heavy rainfall associated with the Central American Gyre.  


See above about the tropical waves in the tropical Atlantic. 

A broad ridge of high pressure prevails across the Atlantic. A 
dissipating stationary front extends from 31N62W to 28N64W with 
minimal shower activity associated with this boundary. A surface 
trough is in the east-central Atlantic from 27N36W to 18N33W
enhancing trade wind showers north of 19N between 30W-41W. This 
area of showers is moving west at 10-15 kt.

For additional information please visit

Graphical representation of waves, etc. on this image (NCEP/OPC) [more].
Various tropical satellite imagery available here

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