NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Mar 16 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pres system is expected to=20
develop in the central Atlantic this evening. As the system=20
intensifies, gale- force winds are expected by this evening across
the northern semicircle of the low, mainly north of 25N between=20
45W and 55W. Rough to very rough seas are forecast with these=20
winds. The low will move NW through mid-week while weakening.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website -=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!-0aTqjE3i0_8hJPx_TstZcrfmY3MuC6fN8_ViiVU-nnRtgf-6nB46procs3S8Zwhx=
_V7Y5sfFfcXfL7XhV1UFbnfolI$ for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of=20
Guinea near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 04N20W. The=20
ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 03S20W to the coast of NE Brazil=20
near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is evident north of 02N
between 05W and 13W, and from 01S to 02N between 13W and 25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A frontal boundary is mostly stationary front near Panama City,
Florida to 1008 mb low pressure near 24N88W, and then is a cold
front to near Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing just ahead of the front over the far
northeastern Gulf, north of 26N. Fresh to strong SE to S winds=20
and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted ahead of the front over the southeast
Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds are active off Veracruz, but=20
moderate to fresh NW to N winds are noted elsewhere west of the=20
front, with 4 to 6 ft wave heights.=20
For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeast and move E=20
of the Gulf late tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead=20
of the front will prevail this afternoon across the eastern Gulf=20
waters, then fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will
develop across the central and eastern Gulf this afternoon though
Mon late night. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the
basin Mon through mid week. As the high pressure moves toward N=20
Florida fresh to strong southerly return flow will set-up over the
NW Gulf Mon night into Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front is=20
slated to enter the Gulf region by mid-week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A developing trough northeast of the Leeward Islands is
distrupting the subtropical ridge north of the area, resulting in
gentle breezes and 2 to 3 ft seas across the eastern Caribbean.
Moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across the central
Caribbean, except for fresh trade winds and seas to 6 ft off
Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas
persist over most of the northwest Caribbean, mainly west of 83W.
No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident at this
time.=20
For the forecast, the fresh to strong southerly winds over the NW
Caribbean will diminish later today as the cold front currently
moving across the Gulf of America reaches the Yucatan Channel by
tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will
follow the front forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras by Mon night, and from the Windward Passage to near
Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua on Tue before dissipating Tue
night into Wed. High pressure over the central Atlantic combined
with the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to fresh to
strong speeds at night offshore Colombia throughOut the forecast
period. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the=20
Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic today and
tonight.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic associated
with a developing low pressure. Refer to the Special Features
section for more details.=20
A surface trough extends from 26N52W to off the Leeward Islands
near 18N59W. The presentation on morning satellite imagery
suggests a low pressure area may be forming from this trough. A=20
mid to upper level short wave trough is interacting with this=20
surface features to support scattered showers and thunderstorms=20
from 20N to 24N between 45W and 55W, and from 16N to 18N between=20
50W and 55W. The gradient between the trough and 1033 mb high=20
pressure centered north of the area near 36N45W is supporting=20
fresh to strong E winds and 8 to 10 ft seas from 22N to 30N=20
between 35W and 70W. Farther west, fresh to strong SW winds and 6=20
to 8 ft seas are active off northeast Florida, specifically north=20
of 27N and west of 75W, ahead of a cold front slowly moving from=20
the Gulf through Florida. Farther east over the eastern Atlantic,=20
a cold front is approaching the Canary Islands, followed by=20
moderate to fresh winds and 8 to 12 ft NW swell, east of 35W.=20
Moderate trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted elsewhere across
the basin south of 31N.
For the forecast west of 55W, the developing low pressure will=20
support gale-force winds east of 55W by tonight. As the low moves=20
east, gale force winds will be likely be found from 27N to 29N and
east of 57W on Mon. Gale winds will likely last through Mon=20
night, then diminishing to fresh to strong winds through Tue=20
morning. This pattern will also support rough to very seas east of
70W through mid week. Farther west, a strong cold front will push
off the SE United States coast tonight preceded and followed by=20
fresh to near-gale force winds and rough seas. The front will=20
reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Tue=20
morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning. By mid week=20
a low pressure system may develop along this front supporting=20
fresh to strong winds and very rough seas between Bermuda and the=20
Bahamas.
$$
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