Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion (NHC/TPC):
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...Expect NE to E gale-force winds 
during the rest of the overnight/early morning hours, until 
later this morning on Tuesday. The sea heights will be ranging 
from 10 feet to 15 feet, from 11N to 13N between 70W and 76W. 
The gale-force winds are forecast to slow down, to be at less 
than gale-force, from Tuesday morning until Tuesday night. The 
gale-force winds will be present during the late night/early 
morning hours, on Tuesday night, and on Wednesday night.
Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC, or at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 13N southward. 
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N to 
10N between 40W and 45W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 15N 
southward. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong 
rainshowers are from 08N to 10N between 47W and 57W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 16N 
southward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is to the south 
and southeast of the line that runs from 20N64W to 13N76W.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers 
are in the area of the upper level anticyclonic wind flow.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N18W and 07N20W. The ITCZ continues 
from 07N20W to 05N30W, to 06N38W 08N45W and to 07N55W. Scattered 
moderate to strong rainshowers are from 04N to 07N between 18W 
and 21W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are 
elsewhere, away from the tropical waves, from 14N southward from 
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level pattern at the moment consists of a trough, to a 
ridge, to a trough, from west to east. Isolated moderate to 
locally strong rainshowers are in the north central Gulf of 
Mexico, in the coastal waters of Louisiana, Mississippi, and 
Alabama. This precipitation is what is remaining from a 
comparatively larger area of scattered moderate to strong 
rainshowers, that moved off the Texas coast nearly 24 hours ago.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the eastern one-third of 
the Gulf of Mexico. 

A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico 
into the SW corner of the area.   

High pressure will remain across the Gulf of Mexico through
Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 
22N65W, through the Mona Passage, to 14N72W. An upper level 
inverted trough is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is to the south and southeast 
of the line that runs from 20N64W to 13N76W. Broken to overcast 
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the same 
area, of the upper level anticyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 10N73W in Colombia, to the Colombia 
border with Panama, in the southern coastal waters of Panama, 
beyond 08N84W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate 
rainshowers are in the coastal areas of Panama along 09N between 
81W and 82W, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The surface pressure gradient, between the Atlantic Ocean ridge 
and the Colombia low pressure, will allow the wind speeds to 
pulse to minimal gale-force off the coasts of Colombia and 
Venezuela each night this week. Fresh to strong winds are 
expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is in the eastern one-third of the Gulf of 
Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers 
remain in and around south Florida and the Bahamas, and in the 
NW Caribbean Sea, from 19N northward from 73W westward, in the 
Atlantic Ocean. The comparatively strongest rainshowers right 
now are off the SE part of Andros Island in the Bahamas. 

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean 
from 20N northward from 38W westward. A 1022 mb high pressure 
center is near 32N56W. A second 1022 mb high pressure center is 
near 30N68W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 
24N northward between 20W and 70W. A dissipating cold front 
passes through 32N13W to 25N26W, 24N31W, and 25N35W. Rainshowers 
are possible from 24N northward from 60W eastward. 

A surface trough will move slowly, eastward, off NE Florida on 
Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola 
each night from Tuesday night through Thursday night. Expect a 
ridge, across the rest of the region, through Saturday night.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Graphical representation of waves, etc. on this image (NCEP/OPC) [more].
Various tropical satellite imagery available here

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