Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion (NHC/TPC):
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
across the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will=20
support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central=20
Caribbean into the weekend. Winds will pulse to gale force within
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight, and again Wed=20
night. Near gale-force winds are also expected Thu night. Seas=20
will build to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please refer to=20
the latest High Seas Forecast product in the following website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!vuu13oiYOErk3YStXKFrLcCfXcY23kSYgDx0rmAj2ZCsOo671F0PvstTIb5a08h2s=
EEbbhzX$  for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near=20
08N13W to 04N21W to 01N28W. The ITCZ continues from 01N28W to=20
the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. An area of cyclonic winds=20
associated with a 1014 mb low along the monsoon trough is=20
located near 04N21W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong=20
convection is noted from 01S-10N between 17W-32W.=20

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, the boundary that was previously a warm front=20
has stalled off the coast of the Florida panhandle. The=20
stationary front now stretches across the entire northern Gulf=20
adjacent to the coastline. A 1017 mb low is along the boundary=20
off the coast of Pensacola, FL, near 30N87W. East of the low,=20
winds are fresh from the south. West of the low, winds=20
transition from moderate northerlies to gentle trades and cover=20
the western half of the basin. Bands of scattered moderate=20
convection are east of the low and stretch from 27N to the coast=20
of Florida near Panama City. Elsewhere in the basin, a surface=20
trough extends from 26N92W to Veracruz, Mexico. No significant=20
precipitation is associated with this feature.=20

The low and the boundary will lift N of the area later today.=20
Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog across the northern=20
Gulf through mid week. Looking ahead, another front will move=20
off the Texas coast by late Thu and reach from the Florida Big=20
Bend to the Bay of Campeche Fri evening, where it will stall=20
through Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds will affect=20
the far western Gulf Fri into Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on=20
pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.=20

Fresh to strong trades continue to dominate the central=20
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas of 8 to=20
10 ft can be found in the central Caribbean while 3 to 6 ft are=20
observed in the eastern and western Caribbean. Dry conditions=20
prevail, aside from isolated fast moving showers embedded in the=20
trade wind flow in the NE Caribbean.

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will continue to=20
support fresh to strong trade winds over the central and=20
portions of the SW Caribbean through Sat night. Gales will pulse=20
nightly through Wed night off the coast of Colombia, with near=20
gale conditions prevailing the rest of the week. Fresh to=20
locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras for=20
the latter half of the week.=20

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is located from 32N47W to 29N56W. It then becomes
stationary and continues west the coast northern coast of=20
Florida near Jacksonville. As of 1500 UTC a low formed over the=20
waters adjacent to Jacksonville along this boundary. Scattered=20
moderate convection is located N of the boundary between Florida=20
and 70W. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are occurring N of the=20
front transitioning to ESE west of 70W. Generally gentle to=20
moderate trades are south of the boundary. High pressure of 1024=20
mb centered near 29N37W dominates much of the rest of the basin,=20
producing moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropics south=20
of 23N. Seas across the trade wind belt are running 7 to 9 ft in=20
north swell.

The front will continue to gradually lift today and move out of=20
the area by early this evening. The front will transition back=20
to a cold front tonight N of the area, and its tail will move=20
across the northern waters Wed. Strong high pressure northeast=20
of the area will support fresh to strong winds between=20
Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos as well as in the approaches of=20
the Windward Passage into Fri.


$$
Graphical representation of waves, etc. on this image (NCEP/OPC) [more].
Various tropical satellite imagery available here

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