NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high
pressure building southward through the Mid-Atlantic U.S. and low
pressure south of Bermuda and an associated stationary front
extending into the Bahamas will continue to induce widespread
strong to gale-froce NE to E winds and very rough seas to 20 ft
into Mon morning. Gales will be present N of 27N between 62W and
72W, with a broader area of very rough seas N of 24N and W of 60W.
The low pressure will lift NE of the region on Mon, and gales will
end, but with the stationary front remaining in place through
mid-week, strong winds and very rough seas will likely continue
through at least Wed night, mainly north of the frontal boundary.
Mariners are urged to remain alert to these hazardous marine
conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid these
affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: Deep-layer troughing
extending southward through the Bahamas into the NW Caribbean
combined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of
heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands into Mon night. The
trough will gradually shift N and E early this week, while
weakening. Very heavy rainfall will bring a potential for
dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over
portion of center Cuba and Haiti. Please refer to your local
weather services and the International Desk at the Weather
Prediction Center for more information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 15N17W southwestward to
06N31W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N45W to 09N60W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 22W and 27W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure building in from the Mid-Atlantic U.S. is supporting
fresh to strong NE winds through the eastern basin, with gentle to
moderate NE winds in the western Gulf. Rough seas, locally to 12
ft, are in the eastern Gulf, with moderate seas in the west.
For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a 1033 mb
high pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic states and a stationary
front that extends into the Bahamas supports fresh to locally
near gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas over the E Gulf waters,
including the Florida Straits. This weather pattern will persist
into mid- week, followed by diminishing winds and seas into next
weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to locally fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas will prevail during much of the workweek.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section above for information on heavy
rainfall over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola early this week.
A 1009 mb low pressure is centered over far eastern Cuba near
20N75W, with a surface trough extending southward from it to
around 15N78W. A broad area of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection extends N of 15N between 71W and 79W, impacting
both the Windward Passages and nearshore waters of Haiti. Moderate
to fresh NW winds dominate the western basin, with moderate to
fresh trades in the east. Seas basinwide are moderate, peaking
around 7 ft in the Yucatan Channel.
For the forecast, a deep trough over the Bahamas and NW Caribbean
will shift very slowly eastward through Tue and support scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
and Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface trough extends
from the central Bahamas southward to a 1009 mb low near E Cuba,
continuing to the central Caribbean, and will drift eastward
through Tue. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will
continue to build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America
through early next week, leading to moderate to fresh N winds and
moderate seas across the western Caribbean W of the trough
through late Tue. Expect rough seas in large N swell across the
Yucatan Channel late tonight through early Tue. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the E Caribbean will diminish to
gentle to moderate speeds by Mon evening.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy
rainfall expected for the Turks and Caicos Islands and
Hispaniola.
To the south of the gale-related low pressure and stationary
front described in the Special Features section, a pair of
troughs reside. One extends southward from 25N73W to far eastern
Cuba and other stretches from 29N72W to Hispaniola. A broad area
of numerous moderate convection encompasses the Bahamas, Turks
and Caicos, and surrounding waters. To the east of the troughs,
moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas extend E of 50W.
Otherwise, the Azores high pressure ridge dominates the remainder
Atlantic subtropical waters, providing mainly moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas, except for fresh funneling through the
Canary and Cabo Verde Islands.
For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between a
robust ridge over the NW Atlantic and the eastern United States
and a stationary front from near Bermuda to the Bahamas support a
large area of strong to gale-force NE to E winds across the
western and central offshore zones, along and N of a stationary
front. Very rough seas to 20 ft are expected N of the front
between 66W and 74W. The portion of the front E of 70W is expected
to begin to lift northward tonight through Mon morning, and stall
from near Bermuda to W Cuba Mon and Mon night, then drift
southeastward Tue through Wed night as a cold front. The
aforementioned ridge will shift slowly eastward and into the N
Atlantic during this time. The gale-force winds will diminish
overnight, however, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough
seas in NE swell to the north of the front will persist through
the period. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous
marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid
these affected areas.
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