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- Some Suspense is Over -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2022 06:58:43 -0400
"This is a Partial, - 'All-Clear'."

Sorry! Pressed the wrong button.

The TW/LPS is over the southern Windwards now.
Nothing Emergency Personnel cannot handle.
It dipped 'REALLY' South, ....
My take is;
It's going to 'crash' into Latin-America at some point.
It's moving really fast. No time to build up.
Stay away from rivers.

God Thanks

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- Some Suspense is Over -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2022 06:50:43 -0400
This is a Partial, - 'All-Clear'.

Virus-free. www.avg.com

- 40 West and its 20/20 Insights -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2022 09:55:54 -0400
Hi, People of Paradise!

I have three rotten tyres on the vehicle to fix this morning. 
So! Just a short Post.

There is 'Nascent' Circulation at 40 West.

The most Important Hazard Prevention Point, at this moment?

The 'History' of 2022 LPs are, 'Due West on West' !!!!

God Bless

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- Thunderstorms Tomorrow - No Circulation -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2022 11:42:04 -0400
Thunderstorms slightly more organized than what Trinidad had.
Are affecting Barbados right now. The axis will go through,
Grenada and St. Vincent late tonight, more tomorrow.
But, the 'Blob' stretches from St. Lucia to south Trinidad, ....

It took a dip 'South'. Was Heading for Dominica.

God Bless

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- There is NO Circulation -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2022 08:08:07 -0400
Good Morning, People of Paradise!!

This is normal weather.
This is normal heat and pressure.
This 'Blob' has NO Circulation.

However !!!
Having that Generalisation in mind.
And 
Knowing it's going to end soon.

Based on the Landfall of what became 'Bonnie'.
The Nariva area cannot recover properly.
Based on all satellite images so far.

A guesstimate is a more MEDIUM-TERM  AMELIORATION.

For the Easern Caribbean, ...

The Pressure Gradient for the Northward Swing of Cyclones.
Has shifted more North. But only Inches, ... !!!
and,
Larger Systems than what Trinidad is having are Due West on West.

Stay Blessed

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- 2nd. (Potential) TW Blob - 2022-07-01st. Fri. 10:30am -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 1 Jul 2022 11:07:44 -0400
Hi, People of Paradise!!!

I'm still very much 'under-the-weather'.
But,
Circulation, (probably High-Level), Circulation 
has started off St. Lucia. At 10:30am. today
it is due East of Martinique. That is the Wave Axis.
My Take:
I see it passing into Martinique, Dominica and 
Guadeloupe this Evening.
The Leewards and Virgin Islands later than that but tonight.
For the Windwards finishing by Sunrise.
Nobody knows what will happen tonight.
But right now, there is NO low-level Circulation.

[Aside]:
Besides stormcarib.com. please Donate to websites that 
have wind, wave and precipitation Data. (Buoys and Marine Crafts).

It's the EARLIEST THING  that saves Lifes. Reduces Insurance.

Going into Port of Spain, eat lunch and go back to sleep.
My daughter is returning within 21 days after more than 5 years.

GOD Bless

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- Trinidad in a tail spin!
  • By Adesh Nanan <adeshcnanan at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2022 18:50:55 -0400
Dear Gert,
There is thunder rolling overhead and lightning discharges in the Gulf.There has been a light shower in Palmiste San Fernando but in certain parts of the island  there are reports of heavy rainfall

Dr Adesh Nanan


- 2022-06-28th Tue. 11:00pm - snippet (iii) Final for 'Bonnie' & TnT-
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2022 23:19:26 -0400
Okay, People of Paradise ?

We have the Precipitation to deal with now.
For a select few. That's until tomorrow evening.
For the Majority, it's until Thursday night.

An ameuter like me, will guess that's a comfortable 3" inches.
Whether comfortable or not, we came out better than expected.

In order of looking forward to 'restitution and restoration' ?
This ameuter suspects,
Tobago,
South Trinidad,
Grenada,
Toco/Sangre Grande
Chaguanas
(In that order),
Have the most to Report, Post-Mortem and Teamwork with !!!!

I need to pray and take a rest, ...

GOD Bless (No all Clear as Yet!)

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- Nariva Swamp Landfall at 8:25pm - snippet (ii) -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2022 21:07:31 -0400
- T'dad & T'bgo, meaning from east in Tobago,
to Nariva, to Pt. Lisas, then to 'Down the Islands',
back to Tobago is encompassed in TD winds (>25mph.).
- The north and east coasts are getting battered 
(37mph. winds). Not so much Tobago anymore.
- Grenada had over 3" inches of rain presently.
Please read the images. Our details with time are there.
- Soon-to-be 'Bonnie' made landfall in Nariva Swamp at 
8:25pm. As you can see ? Now for three (03") ins. of rain.

Thank GOD

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- 2022-06-28th. Tue. 7:00pm - Snippet (i) -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2022 19:48:56 -0400
- The outer bands of the Centre of Circulation
encompass Tobago with barely 25mph. winds.
- Touching Toco with 20mph. winds.

- The Centre of Circulation (40mph. winds) 
will be North of Guyaguyare.
- It is due East of The Mayaro/Victoria Forest Reserve.
- That means its least Trajectory will be above Mayaro
on Landfall. (Probably much better than that!).
- The southern half of the Centre of Circulation 
has no discernible hazardous winds, ...
- An example of the southern half's measurement is 
Mayaro to the tip of Trinidad. 

(Will be back VERY Shortly).

Virus-free. www.avg.com

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- 30 mins for effects
  • By Adesh Nanan <adeshcnanan at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2022 17:35:03 -0400
Dear Gert
We are 30 mins away from projected heavy rainfall and winds.At present in Palmiste San Fernando ,there is a slight shower with thunder in the distance.Humidity is very high and a cold wind is blowing.

Dr Adesh Nanan

- Centre of Circulation in 3 - 6 hours -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2022 14:55:31 -0400
In case you haven't yet !

Get Indoors
Get off the streets
Evacuate if Necessary

It will take a Super, Supernatural Force for 
the Centre of Circulation not to pass directly
over Trinidad & Tobago in 3 - 6 hours.

Tobago is having about 03" inches of rain.

In Jesus Name, Have Mercy !

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- 2022-06-28th Tue. 10:25am - Update -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2022 10:44:22 -0400
* [Correction: northeast quadrant is as image below.]

The entire East Coast of Trinidad has 20mph. winds.
Tobago is covered in 20mph. winds.

Don't let the northern Sector of the LPS fool you.
The Centre of Circulation is still East of Trinidad.
According to the officals, less than 320 kms away.

Finally;
The image below is filtered with winds greater than 25mph.

God Bless

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- Thunder rolling overhead
  • By Adesh Nanan <adeshcnanan at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2022 10:39:54 -0400
Dear Gert
Presently high winds and heavy rainfall...maybe a squall in Palmiste San Fernando

Dr Adesh Nanan


- 2022-06-28th Tue. 05:55am - Touchdown -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2022 06:15:03 -0400
Thanks, Isabel !
Thanks, Gert !
Thanks, Dave !
Thanks, Fellow Correspondents, ... !
Thanks, Donors ! Thanks, Everyone , ... !

There will be a lot of mangoes on the ground afterwards!

People of  Paradise,

No storm precipitation , ... , but Tobago has 20 mph. 
Depression to-be-Storm Winds.
Grenada you are going to feel the winds.
Stretching a little less than 200 miles in the Northeast Quadrant 
are 30 - 40 mph. winds. Mayaro/Manzanilla has 10 - 15 mph. winds 
but 'storm-precipitation'. 
The smallest 'Hazard' Reality is (T'dad & T'bgo) rain for five (05) days.

As for 1st. Responders, ...
- Their Safety comes First. Respect them. 
They are HIGHLY Trained and Equipped.
- Comply!!! Don't Criticize and Complain.
- a) They have left their family, b) risking their lifes, c) to assist you.

"Don't blame anybody but yourself".
GOD Bless

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- Tropical Storm on our Doorstep
  • By Adesh Nanan <adeshcnanan at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2022 21:33:25 -0400
Dear Gert,
The twin island republic has begun preparation for the approaching system.
The Disaster Management unit in each of the   14 Regional Corporations in Trinidad are in a heightened state of alert distributing sandbags and opening certain selective  shelters.
Over in Tobago there is a similar sense of urgency.
If this is a dry run, I must give the authorities a thumbs up!

Dr Adesh Nanan



- 2022-06-27thMon. 01:45 - 03:45 am. - Update -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2022 04:38:22 -0400
- It's too early and dangerous for a Post-Mortem.
- This Post is going to be Long. 
So un-scientific readers will be turned off.
All of this Post can be summed up in the next Post, right after.
- If you look at the satellite details. 
The rain clouds from the 1st LPS merge with the 2nd. LPS.

a) At 01:45am. the (redundant, dispersed, former) Centre of Circulation
of the 1st. LPS was in the area of Maturin, Venezuela. Quite West of 
Trinidad, BUT TRINIDAD WAS HAVING RAIN.
A new Centre of Circulation will form somewhere West of  the Windwards
between 12 - 16 prevalent Isobars. The former Centre was heading for Caracas, 
Venezuela at 03:45am. 
b) The Centres of Circulation in these Tropical Climate Change 
Low Pressure Systems are surrounded by approximately 
1,500 nautical miles of a Cone of Uncertainty. (Or Danger).
That means :
Rain; more than two (02") inches in an hour.
Wind; over 25mph. fairly consistently, ...
Seas; Stormsurge and waves over 6' feet.
3) Last, but the reason for this particular post. 
(In terms of Alertness. Which I can't seem to retire from.)
The rain clouds affecting the Windwards. 
[see: East of Barbados and Trinidad]
Will show that the 1st. LPS merges with the 2nd. LPS.
I can't remember the time. (Four hours of Research).
But the Centre of Circulation for the 2nd. LPS.
Is barely within 50 West and 10 North.

GOD Bless

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- 2022-06-26th Sun. 4:30pm - Bad, Bad, News !!!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2022 16:37:29 -0400
I am interrupting my research and posts.
To tell you, "The 1st. System Stalled".

We at stromcarib.com know what that means.

As you know, and as St. Lucia reminded me.
- I can't override the authorities -
It's in the Authorities hands now.

Be alert
and 
GOD Bless Your Preparations, Planning, Praying and Procuring, ...

- 2022-06-26th Sun. 09:45am - Update -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2022 10:03:48 -0400
Just Survive!

The welcome 'water' has reached, ...
The 'Trio' have a Collective Climate-Change Feature!!!!
Which means; Old-fashioned Analysis and the Centre of Circulation
mean Nothing. In the SENSE that all 1,500 nautical miles 
of these Systems are 'Traumatic' and Devastating, ... !!!!

The 1st. Centre of Circulation is about 08 North 58.5 West.
[attach: as you can see?]
Along with everything else that we are Not prepared for.
The 'Worstcase Scenario' is it runs off the Guyana and Venezuela Coast
and passes directly over Southwestern Trinidad.
However Southwestern Trinidad has a touch of SAL.

The 'most-reliable' but bankrupt site says,
Trinidad and Tobago will have maximum Impact between 3:00 - 6:00 pm. today.

Just Survive

GOD! Please Bless!

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- 2022-06-25th 6:00pm. Update -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2022 19:17:17 -0400
Please put the saving/making of money
as a Lower Priority.
During Life and Death Traumatic Episodes
the ABC's of Basic Survival. Is the most Important !!!!!!!
A - Airways
B - Breathing
C - Circulation

We are NOT ready
But,
GOD Bless

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- Two (02) Blobs in 36 hours -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2022 07:27:21 -0400
My Dearest People of Paradise,

I usually wait for 40 W. to Post advance Notice.
But,
Due to,
Climate Change Characteristics of the Blobs.
The soon-to-be absence of SAL.
The Presence of formative uncovered Centres of Circulation.
I am posting. Mainly to say, when it comes. (Both of Them).
It will be minimum Depression. Which in this case means 30 mph. winds.

Last! But Not Least! All forecasters say Trinidad will be Impacted in some way !!!!

God Bless

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- 2022-06-14th 1:00pm - Update -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2022 13:21:02 -0400
As Isabel accurately said,
There are two!!!! This is literally the first one !

My take:
This one is less Impactful to the one at 50W.
Because,
- It's in Windshear.
- Barometer and lack of SAL will help the other or next one.

God Bless
All Hands on Deck

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- 1st Significant TW Blob -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2022 11:33:49 -0400
People of The Eastern Caribbean and Paradise,

Mother Nature has taken away our water supply, well almost.
But replaced it with an abundance of cheap, natural, liquid Produce.
The Harvest is Plentiful.
And if we observe the agricultural side to Corpus Christi's Timing.
The seeds as well as the soil are Ripe for Planting, ...

That's the good side to Precipitation and Wind.
Now for the Hazardous Side?

North West Trinidad has had what I will call, "Non-Stop",
four (04) hours of rain at time of posting. My Projections are?
Over one (01") inch of rain in 24 hours.
Breeze picking up late tomorrow. Not bad for now.
Hazardous Weather (be careful of Rivers), for 3 - 4 days.
Paths Greatest Intensity, ... , Barbados and St. Lucia.

It's no longer "Be Prepared!". 
It's, Help the less Fortunate Prepare,

Be Strong


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- "What causes Cyclones?"
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 25 May 2022 06:35:18 -0400
Westvale Park,
Glencoe, Carenage,
D'go M'rtn, St. George (West)
2022-05-25th.

"Do we know? What causes a Hurricane?"

It surely isn't. Because of Africa and Primitive Habitats.
Apparently it's because,
In the Tropical Zone, everyone knows of 'Refreshing NorthEast Trades'.
Underknown is,
1) It flows westwards because of 'Rotation'.
2) In the South (Primitive?) it flows Eastwards.
(It counteracts the North and flows from Southwest).
3) The South (and North) flows to replace Warm Air.

Therefore, in a Circle.

"Stop the Heat and PRESSURE, and there is no Cyclone".

God Bless

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- Invisible Troughs, ... !!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 16 May 2022 11:27:14 -0400
People of Paradise, I'm Sorry to Say,

I don't know.
But,
It seems from the past recent occasions.
Tropical Waves can now form. Affecting and Including Trinidad.
As the Image shows it's more like a Standard Trough or Troughs.

The Barometer Reading for Tropical Eastern Caribbean Waves,
runs through South Western Trinidad.

Enjoy it, while it lasts.

GOD Bless

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