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- Sly & sneaky System -part 2?
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2021 02:49:57 +0000 (UTC)
93L certainly bears watching as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Whilst the official forecast does not call for it to rapidly intensify or develop near or over the islands ('the Lesser Antilles rule'). I need not over emphasise that we are susceptible to Climate change, and all its undesirable impacts and realities for our vulnerable islands.

Coming on the heels of the most recent sly Tropical wave #53 & its associated trough system which caused significant wet conditions over the weekend on Sunday- 93L is being looked at wearily. Many areas got over 6 inches in a 12 hour period or so and some flash flooding resulted which was anticipated.

Well, it's a wait and see with 93L. Folks -Flash flood watches and the like may be in order by sunrise for the Nature Isle along with our neighbouring islands. Time will tell...

Stay safe everyone & Remember it Only takes One.

Blessings to All!

- Sneaky Tropical Wave 53?
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2021 00:58:29 +0000 (UTC)
It looks like active tropical wave #53 along with an energized trough are set to give us some wet conditions in the islands. It should make for a Rainy Day of the Lord Jesus Christ (Sunday) tomorrow. After Church picnics will likely be off for sure. In house 'limes' with social distancing etc. Will be the order of the day I suspect.

& Let's hope and pray that no rapid intensification happens with this system as it approaches the Lesser Antilles area ('Lesser Antilles rule'), or from the system right behind it.

Stay Vigilant and stay safe & prepared folks. Remember it Only takes one.

God Bless!

- Sweet 'Sammy's Trail'...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Fri, 1 Oct 2021 10:55:57 +0000 (UTC)
Thanks be to God Hurricane Sam stayed well clear of all of the Eastern Caribbean islands. However, combined weather features comprising a gust front (wind surge) associated with the trail/ tail of Sam along with tropical wave 51, & a trough system should make for a wet couple days ahead.

Of course, All this precedes the remnants of 91L which still bears watching as it approaches the 50-55W area. Let's hope and pray that the Lesser Antilles rule does not go into effect bringing any unwanted tropical surprises.

Stay vigilant and stay prepared folks. 
Remember it only takes one.

Keep safe everyone as this active hurricane season continues to unfold.

- Sly Sam...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2021 17:03:36 +0000 (UTC)
Well anxiety levels are somewhat elevated as All eyes 'spy' Sam. Let's hope He's not a Sly one.

We All know too well from experience in the islands how quickly things can change so hence the tension now. Cases in point Re: track changes & Impacts even peripheral in the island chain include- Janet-1955, David- 1979, which ended up making a direct landfall on my island -the Commonwealth of Dominica (which was not originally forecasted), Luis & Marilyn-1995, Jose & Lenny- 1999, 1998- George's, & of course Ivan- 2004... They all had horrible surprises to their eventual landfalls & tracks over the vulnerable islands & populations on them.

Thus, I always like paying close attention to the early model runs -as in some rare instances they do eventually materialize.
Of course, I will not feel fully comfortable until Sam is well north of our islands. Time will tell... However, After several 'Misses' by Kate, Larry, Peter, & Rose this year- there is a (6th sense) that something wants to give.

The possibility for a Luis (1995) or Hugo type track is still probable & impacts in the Leeward islands Cannot be entirely ruled out at this stage...
However, by Tuesday God's willing Sam's intentions should be very clear.

Praying & Hoping for the very best. Stay safe & Be prepared fellow Islanders. Better safe than sorry. 

& Very Warm & Sunny wishes to All from the Nature Island of the Caribbean, Dominica.

- Pre T.S. Peter...(TD 16)
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2021 03:27:12 +0000 (UTC)
Well as expected former 95L is well on it's way to becoming Tropical Storm Peter over the course of the next few hours. TD 16 (Pre- T.S. Peter) should give some peripheral effects at the very least to the Northern Leewards et al.
Let's hope that there are no surprises with this one...

Stay vigilant everyone, & Stay safe.

- Active Cyclogenesis -95L...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2021 00:08:49 +0000 (UTC)
Irrespective of current model tracks and various model spaghetti plots the Leeward islands still need to keep a close eye on 95L as further organisation & intensification is apparent...

Let's hope and Pray that no rapid intensification occurs (Lesser Antilles rule), or sudden track changes more to the South etc. Stay vigilant everyone. 

Of course, in the Nature Isle We are soberly marking the eve of Hurricane Maria's anniversary which devastated Dominica on the evening of the 18th of September into the 19th. Thank God for a sustained and speedy recovery to date. To God Be the Glory!

Re: 95L -Pray & Hope for the best, but always be prepared for any eventuality... & Never underestimate any tropical system- especially in today's warming climate. Remember- it only takes one.

Stay safe everyone.

- Active weather in train...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2021 05:15:04 +0000 (UTC)
Well, the adage  that- what hasn't met You surely hasn't passed You -holds true in this instance. All of the showers which were 'suspended' during the brief dry period of the last few days have been unleashed in earnest. Some 'training' thunderstorm cells have been producing a fascinating light show across the Nature Isle.

Hopefully, all of this would have lightened up by the morning commute. Though some more showers are possible on Monday into the afternoon period. Thankfully no organized systems appear to be on the Atlantic 'horizon' until about a week or so.

Stay safe & Be Prepared All...


- Active Weather approaching...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2021 15:48:23 +0000 (UTC)
Well, after a bit of a dry spell (thanks to Hurricane Larry's proximity which 'stole' our usual moisture and NE Trade winds) -some active tropical weather more typical of September seems headed to the Lesser Antilles. This wave has the potential to be vigorous (Lesser Antilles Rule) so heads-up there once again. 

Also, I pray and hope that Hurricane Larry did not do too much damage at all in New Foundland  Canada as it transitioned shortly after into a powerful Post tropical cyclone. And I'm happy to note that the recovery process is coming along smoothly in Trinidad & Tobago- Post Very Vigorous Tropical wave #41's passage there.

Stay safe & Be Prepared Everyone. Remember it only takes one...

- Trinidad & Tobago impacts; sadly-extensive
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Sat, 4 Sep 2021 14:46:25 +0000 (UTC)
Information on the ground from reliable sources, and from online sites All sadly confirm that the impacts from the passage of an active Tropical wave # 41 in Trinidad & Tobago has resulted in an unusually extensive amount of damage in both islands of the Twin republic of Trinidad & Tobago (TnT). (See Newspaper links Below) It is also concerning that no reports have yet surfaced from the usual correspondents there. I pray and trust that all remains well with them and their respective families... Notably some Power outage and telecoms issues are reportedly still occurring on the ground.

We are certainly in 'unusual' times to say the least, & the extensive impacts of Tropical wave #41 in Trinidad and Tobago and to a lesser extent Grenada are a powerful reminder that adverse -extreme weather events are becoming more common unfortunately, & less of the rarity & outlier they once used to be. See my earlier post(s) which outlines some Climate related factors and the uniqueness of the convective energy associated with Tropical wave #41 which allowed for such sustained periods of vigorous squall lines; straight line winds/ downdraughts & micro bursts & macro burst phenomena in TnT. 

This undoubtedly underscores the need to remain prepared through the entirety of the hurricane season & why there is truly No such thing as 'Just' a Tropical wave or Tropical depression, or 'Just' a Tropical storm or a Category one or two hurricane... With the worsening of climate change all weather systems have the heightened potential to be more intense and sadly more damaging and impactful especially in our small island states.



(See Trinidad & Tobago weather center-https://ttweathercenter.com)

Stay Safe, & Be Prepared going forward everyone.

- Global Climate Emergency?
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2021 05:57:59 +0000 (UTC)
From the Deadly Floods in Germany to the Apocalyptic Torrential rains of Hurricane Ida in the Gulf States- all the way to the North East of the U.S.... it is pretty clear that our Global Climate has gone awry.

Apparently global Climate change disaster impacts are on full blast! These are surreal times we're in -being accelerated and magnified by a warming atmosphere with exacerbated climate change before our very eyes. 

Over the last ten- twenty years or so here in the Caribbean islands we Now Not only have a hurricane season which is from June-November, but we also have a Heat season as well; May-Oct, which outside of the typical dry season from Feb- June; leaves us with basically just about 2-3 months annually without severe weather disasters & vagries relative to the respective atmospheric variables.  

The current threats posed to human existence as we know it by (AGW) Anthropogenic (Accelerated) Global warming is mindboggling to say the least. We are already into a dangerous Global climate disaster related spiral. & We need to prioritize greening our planet & investing in Renewable energy sources like Yesterday! 

God be with this planet going forward...

- Tropical wave #41 -TnT Impacts...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2021 06:17:19 +0000 (UTC)
Well it seems like convective activity associated with Tropical wave #41 may have been somewhat energized by the peripheral barocylinic effects of Hurricane Larry's proximity. 

In keeping with the projected Climate change impacts in a warming and more moist atmosphere it appears that parts of Trinidad and Tobago have already been hit by Heavy to violent rainfall rates and thunderstorms from this system. 

Winds generated by the inclement weather system have produced gusts to about 60mph at Piarco Intl Airport in Trinidad. And sadly so far there have been numerous reports coming out of that country of fallen trees, power outages and some blown off roofs etc.

Let's hope & Pray that such adverse conditions are not experienced in the remainder of the Southern windwards... 
& Though we are all thankful that Larry is forecast to miss our islands- its Peripheral effects are still possible going into the weekend including Life threatening long period swells on the east coasts of the islands. 

Stay vigilant folks- Not to mention that we are now entering the peak period of the Hurricane Season.
Remember it only takes one.
One Love from the Lovely Nature Island of the Caribbean, Dominica!

Stay safe everyone! Be Prepared & Bless up!

- Insanely intense Hurricane Ida...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2021 12:43:08 +0000 (UTC)
As an intensifying Category 4 Hurricane Ida prepares to make landfall in Coastal Louisiana our hearts ache with empathy -having been in a similar tragic situation ourselves with Hurricane Maria (2017). Heartfelt thoughts and prayers go out to All those who may likely be catastrophically affected. Please stay safe till You are out of harm's way.

Indeed, Let's All hope & pray that we will be spared future major hurricane landfalls this season. God be with us All!  & Thoughts and Prayers to those beyond coastal Louisiana who are likely to be impacted by record inland flooding as well. Better to be safe than Sorry... Evacuate & Get out Now if You still can! Materials things can be replaced- Your Life Can't!!!

This is a Tragic but true scenario, and a stark reminder of the harsh reality of Climate Change... Never under-estimate what Mother Nature is capable of... Hope for the best, but Always be Prepared for the Worst! God be with those who stayed in Coastal Louisiana... Hoping and Praying for the best possible outcome in this nightmare scenario especially for New Orleans and Environs.

Also, Upgrades of Tropical depressions 11 & 10 to Julian and Kate respectively are likely today. Not to mention- an additional disturbance is expected off the African coast with a high probability of development. So we all need to keep our eyes eastward as the peak of the 2021 hurricane season continues to unfold.

Stay safe everyone, & Remember it Only takes One...
God Bless!

- Ahhh the Dreaded "I" Storm...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2021 12:59:34 +0000 (UTC)
Well, eyes are yet again fixed on the Yucatan/ central american area as Invest 99- looks set to become a PTC (Potential tropical Cyclone) soon. With that designation it's likely to be named Ida later on. Historically, the "I" storms have been notoriously dreaded as they seem to have generally been some of the most potent, damaging and deadly of Atlantic storms- ultimately leading to retirement of those names.

Cases in point include the infamous Isabel-2003, Ivan-2004, Igor- 2010, & of course Irma- 2017, just to name a few. Indeed, there have been numerous intensely severe storms beginning with many other letters like D, F, H or J or L & M etc. However, most fearsome "I" storms generally seem to intensify to category 5 status or very near that, which makes them all the more notable & scary.

Thoughts and prayers to those likely to be affected by what appears to be 'Pre- Ida' at this point.

*Remember it only takes one...
Stay Vigilant & Prepared folks!

- Super Sunny conditions
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2021 11:46:52 +0000 (UTC)
The last few days here in the Nature Island of the Caribbean have been absolutely and remarkably gorgeous. Brillantly sunny skies have been the order of the day. And no one's complaining. The haze has also cleared of late, and Its definitely a welcomed change for sensitive groups.

This is a sort of lull of course for the islands as there are several 'invests' on the weather maps being tracked (#'s 97,98,99). Also, the peak of the season is straight ahead, so praying and trusting for the very best with that. Not to mention- there are lots of awful major hurricane anniversaries upcoming for many of the islands. Hopefully no new ones will be added in 2021. Finger crossed...

In the meantime we're enjoying the great & splendid weather conditions in true Dominican Tropical paradise. Even better our brief curfew period has ended, & with the usual health protocols in place the Nature Isle is of course Fully open for business!

Take good care and Stay safe everyone.
& May God Bless our Caribbean region.

- Tropically Sun kissed...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2021 20:27:16 +0000 (UTC)
Well Yesterday, and most of today were fantastically Sunny days which served as a lovely tropical reprieve from Thursday's deluge as a result of the passage of Tropical wave # 35.

Later tonight and into tomorrow however, showery periods with some heavier downpours by Sun- Mon are likely. This will be all compliments of Tropical wave # 36 (# 32 for our French neighbours). It should do a great job at clearing out the Saharan dust layer around our islands though.Hopefully, it will not develop any further while approaching the islands. If it did it would typify the "Lesser Antilles rule" -cases in point being Tropical systems; Cindy (1993), Debby (1994), Hortense (1996), Raphael (2012) Etc. etc. etc. Fingers crossed...

We are getting into the peak of the season -so we all need to stay Vigilant and prepared. This has already been an impactful & active year for the Lesser and Greater Antilles islands.

Remember it Only takes One...
Stay safe Everybody.


- Lingering instability...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2021 00:14:25 +0000 (UTC)
As the evening wears on some additional thundershowers seem likely for the northern parts of the Nature Island. Some flash flooding could result in pockets if enhanced instability in the wake of Tropical wave # 35 increases shower and thunderstorm activity overnight. 
Of course, Be safe on the roads if You have to be out Post curfew hours.

Rain (flies) ants are again out in their numbers this evening. Keep your indoor lighting to a minimum -on low levels as a deterrent.

Stay safe everyone and Be Prepared this Storm season...

Our Thoughts and Prayers go out to our Brothers and Sisters in Haiti. #One Love Ayiti #Caribbean Strong! 
& much Concern and petitions go up for those Badly affected by Hurricane/Tropical Storm Grace in the Cayman Islands and Jamaica/ Yucatan.

Also, Sparing our thoughts and intercession to those who were adversely affected in Trinidad & Tobago by the Peripheral effects of Grace, And by a very active ITCZ (Inter-tropical Convergence Zone), Which has produced at least 4 (four) episodes of Extensive flooding in just the last few days alone.

Stay Vigilant Everyone, & Let's Support the relief efforts regionally at this time.
God Bless!

- Copious Showers (Tropical Wave #35)
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2021 14:32:50 +0000 (UTC)
Its a wet and thundery Thursday so far. Hopefully, most areas islandwide are coping well with the heavy- moderate showers with little to minor impacts. For the remainder of the day-Mostly cloudy skies with periods of rain, scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms are likely, with heavier rainfall favoring eastern and interior areas of the Nature Isle. 

This is All compliments Tropical wave # 31 (using the French Tally), Or Tropical wave #35 for the English speaking Met Services count. Though conditions are expected to settle through the evening, intermittent showers and variably cloudy skies are likely to continue into the night with occasional gusty winds accompanying showers.
Stay safe everyone.


- Regional woes...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2021 21:04:42 +0000 (UTC)
While we were spared the worst of Tropical Storm (T.S.) Grace's impacts, thank God, unfortunately other islands in the Lesser Antilles were not that fortunate. Indeed, it was a 'grace' from T.S. Grace that the tail end of the system was also mild to non-existent here in the Nature Island of the Caribbean. For the most part the inclement weather threat never materialized here. & We gladly claim the Blessing!

Sadly though, T.S. Grace has already turned deadly in Trinidad & Tobago -where Peripheral effects of the storms outer bands has produced flash flooding and landslides which tragically claimed a man's life. Sources out of Trinidad indicate that persistent Heavy rainfall triggered a landslide and subsequent collapse of a house which killed the occupant inside in the community of Rancho Quemado near Palo Seco in South Trinidad. Our hearts and Prayers go out to the bereaved family and friends of the deceased.

This is yet another stark and grim reminder that a storm or hurricane is not a single point respective to its distinct & plotted low level center of circulation, But its typically a very expansive weather system, which can adversely & tragically affect the weather in quite distant areas from its center. 

Again the main killer in most instances is usually water instead of winds, which accordingly may not in theory 'warrant' having a traditional watch or warning advisory issued if sustained storm force winds are not likely in certain adversely impacted areas all the same. A new non-sustained wind based warning and advisory system for Tropical Cyclonic impacts is long overdue.

Also, Of course, Our Hearts are All broken over the recent Devastating Earthquake to strike disaster plagued Haiti. Praying & trusting that the Good Lord Jesus will grant them an abundance of Mercies, Graces and the Courage to embark on a new beginning. We'll certainly be playing our part in the wider region to supply immediate relief efforts and to assist with the later recovery drive. 

#We are Caribbean Strong!
#Ayiti /Haiti One Love!

& Let's Hope that Tropical Storm Grace avoids Hispaniola in its future track -especially the Haiti region as much as possible.
Stay Prepared and Stay safe Everyone.


- Phew
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2021 06:36:26 -0400
Grace let Dominica off the hook!  Yesterday at this time in the morning Grace looked like a real threat to Dominica.  The sky was dark, we had a lot of rain and it looked set for the day!

We had heavy rain for about one and a half hours!  The rain stopped!  We kept an eye on the progress of Grace.  All day the sky was overcast and it was quite chilly!  When night fell we knew the tail was still to come however we had no rain or wind at all!  I can see blue sky and no doubt the sun will come out and hopefully we will have a beautiful day!

We are so lucky 

Virus-free. www.avg.com

- Giddy Grace...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2021 01:51:02 +0000 (UTC)
Thankfully, Tropical storm Grace graciously discontinued its earlier phase of intensifying, and then suddenly shifted or wobbled its ill-defined center to just north of Guadeloupe. Prior to this its presumed center was actually just roughly 10km South of Guadeloupe near the island of Marie Galante, which is just north of Dominica. 

Nevertheless, Our very close brush with T.S. Grace could have easily been quite disastrous had the system continued to intensify and generate intense convection and thunderstorm activity while moving slightly more South of due West. Indeed, Thank God for His Mercies thus far, however, our Met Services & its advisories need to be much more timely, pro-active and proficient given increased climate change influenced tropical storm/ hurricane activity. 

However, we are Not quite 'out of the Woods' as yet and it remains to be seen what impacts the 'tail' of Grace may have later tonight into tomorrow God's Willing.

Everyone should continue to be vigilant and should have at least basic preparations completed in anticipation of possible storm impacts. Additional outer feeder bands from Grace may continue to affect the Nature island through tonight.

Earlier today Grace's outer bands brought heavy to moderate showers across most of the island. Some brief street flooding did occur in the city, however, most pedestrians and last minute shoppers did their best to dart through wherever the sidewalks were slightly inundated.

Praying and hoping for the best with the islands further north who are in the forecasted path of Grace. Trusting that the impacts will not be too great. 

Stay safe everyone.

- Unbelievable
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2021 11:40:38 -0400
Here right now we are experiencing a lot of rain!  To date as far as I know there has been no storm watch warning for Dominica.  Grace looks to be knocking on our door and is starting to come now by the feel of things.

Everything I am reading says that Grace will come to the Leeward Islands tonight??  I just find this situation extremely odd.  This is reminding us of Erika. Michael Colaire is correct in his evaluation.

Everyone needs to stay safe, anyone in areas that are liable to flood or have landslides might need to think of moving somewhere for tonight.  Take all precautions necessary.

We hope that Dominica is spared the main thrust of Grace.

We wish everyone a safe weekend, especially as we are on a lockdown from 3.0 pm until Monday at 5.0 am.  Anyone who feels they need to be on safer ground please make plans to move now.

Virus-free. www.avg.com

- Still Westward bound...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2021 12:18:30 +0000 (UTC)
No Surprise Here- at least for me...
*Grace is still heading Westward at a latitude of  15.9 N. That means although Grace is a small Tropical storm (T.S.) by its wind radius (at least for now) -however, given its approach at such a latitude while nearing the general area of Guadeloupe and Dominica- the chances are Greatly increased that we May experience Tropical Storm conditions And adverse weather Conditions with potential torrential rainfall, flooding hazards etc.

So Why Hasn't the Met Service of Barbados, which has Meteorological responsibility for Dominica at least issued a Tropical Storm watch for the Nature Island? Again- the 'modus operandi' ought be- Better safe than sorry, and precaution is Always better than cure. We Need to take NO chances with these tropical systems. I have a bad feeling about this especially in this period of Climate Change...

The public which is the ultimate concern for weather warnings/ advisories- Will inevitably respond and Prepare Better if certain advisories such as a Tropical watch or warning are given Vrs other weather statements and warnings -such as Flash flood watches and potential high seas/ wind advisories etc. This was the basis of the respective rationale which I advocated so strongly for from 2013, which necessitated & spurred on the commencement of Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisories which was successfully lobbied at the World Meteorological Organization. Let us not fail our dear residents and the wider public yet again in 2021.

*Tropical Storm Erika in August, 2015 should have been a sufficient enough lesson in that regard- not just for Dominica but for the entire region... In 2015- The center of T.S. Erika was further away than where the center of Tropical Storm Grace is expected to be, and yet the Worst *Impact was experienced in Dominica which was not placed under any tropical storm watch or warning. Let Not History repeat itself here...
(On a positive note: The Dutch precedent of issuing precautionary Tropical storm watches for Saba and St. Eustasius -of late is an Excellent application of this Avant-garde reasoning which should be adopted.)

N.B. The latest NHC advisory Re: the direction of Tropical Storm Grace below states (*Note that Its Movement is towards the West and a decrease in Forward speed is anticipated- Hmmmm):
"Grace is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h).  A motion toward the
west with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next few days."

*Please stay safe Everyone and persons 
in the Dominica/Guadeloupe area should take
This Tropical storm approach and threat 
seriously as Grace will begin affecting our
Area overnight which is never the best time 
for Cyclonic Impacts.
Stay Prepared & Stay safe Everyone. God Bless!

- Here We go again...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2021 06:09:26 +0000 (UTC)
With Tropical depression 7 likely to become Tropical storm Grace soon there are a few important things to take stock of in the Nature Isle... Once again in line with the HWRF model etc.-The chances of the "Lesser Antilles rule" going into effect -(where some intensification of the system occurs as it nears the islands)- case in point: Hurricane Elsa's intensification- seems quite likely with Pre- Grace unfortunately.

Pre- Fred was quite mild overall, and a friendly type of System- impact wise for us, however, what's soon to become Tropical Storm Grace may not be that gracious with our islands. Again time will tell...

 The quick forward speed of Pre- Grace seems headed straight ahead -a due west motion at least for now. That forward direction would necessitate some sort of advisory for the Guadeloupe/ Dominica area. Waiting to see the outcome in that respect.

Stay safe Everyone and Please be Prepared this Hurricane season. It only takes one!

God Bless!

- Best case Scenario- T.S. Fred...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2021 05:13:02 +0000 (UTC)
Finally Tropical Storm Fred has officially formed after days of threatening to do so. This is the best case Scenario for us in the Lesser Antilles islands. Thankfully what was  then (Pre- Fred) PTC 6 did not strengthen while passing just to the south of the Nature Island yesterday. We certainly breathed a sigh of relief as only extensive showers were the most serious impacts. It could obviously have been much worse & the "Lesser Antilles Rule" could have occured as was the case with the passage of Hurricane Elsa. To God be the Glory!

With the passage of what is now Fred the seas and winds did 'pick-up' somewhat by later Monday. Though thankfully nothing impactful resulted. Hopefully complacency will not have settled in at all as we begin nearing the peak of the Hurricane Season.

Stay safe and as Always Be Prepared everyone. "It Only takes One."

- Nothing
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2021 06:45:51 -0400
A very strange night.  We went to bed with all the house shut and secure.  We were waiting for the noise of the rain on the tin roof!  We fell asleep.   I kept waking wondering when the storm would start.

We had a very peaceful restful night.  It rained but not a lot.  I am sitting writing this with the door open.  The sky is clear.  The frogs and birds are singing! 

We live in the middle of the island.  Looking at the sky is now clear, no blue but not looking dark or threatening.  The update on the stormcarib shows the weather is passing over us but we are experiencing no rain, or wind.  We are so lucky it looks like we have been spared this time.

Virus-free. www.avg.com

- 'Freddie Fluids'
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2021 07:11:17 +0000 (UTC)
Still lots of 'liquid gold' being unleashed upon us by 'Pre-Fred'. Fortunately, this system was not any stronger, more organized or larger upon crossing the islands of the Lesser Antilles. This could obviously have been much worse according to the model runs from HWRF.

The presumed centre of (PTC 6) appears to have crossed the extreme Southern part of the Commonwealth of Dominica. I'm more on the Central part of our West Coast so the precipitation has been continuous, but pretty much moderate where I'm at.


- 'Pre- Fred' soaker- All's well so far...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2021 05:46:34 +0000 (UTC)
So far lots of showers ongoing and the rain flies are out in full force... Various rain bands of different intensities have been affecting the Nature island. But this should not be severe enough to cause any real problems. 

An increase in winds will most likely follow once the center of the system gets to our West. Windy.com -shows that we are sort of in 'the eye' or wind lull of 'Pre- Fred' (PTC 6).
Hoping we'll remain largely unscathed by the morning light. However, So far there are No significant impacts to speak of which is Always Great News.

Stay safe, & Remain Prepared everyone. 
God Bless!

- Proverbial- Calm before the storm...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2021 03:35:41 +0000 (UTC)
Thankfully more Meteorological proficiency and prudence was exercised with PTC 6 or Pre- Fred. Storm Advisories for the Nature Isle were not delayed this time around by the Barbados Met which of course, is a noted improvement. 

So far a few showers have been the most we've experienced here on the West Coast of the island. And no one's complaining that's for sure. All utilities are intact and good to go so far. Pre- Fred has met us in a Covid Restrictive mode with a curfew in place so there won't be much of the usual storm sightseeing should conditions deteriorate further as we head into the night.

Appreciably, the center of Pre- Fred has come nearer to Dominica so that 'Should' and hopefully will mean that the Leeward islands to our north like Guadeloupe and Montserrat should get most of the storm force winds and squalls. Hoping and Praying that Fred will be an overall friendly and benign system when All is said and done. However, It could still be a long night though.  Time will tell...

Inspite of the very recent Covid19 restrictions Most persons tried as much as possible to prepare somewhat in case what should become Fred brings any unwelcome surprises.
Stay safe everyone.
God Bless!

- Invest 94L
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Aug 2021 10:45:26 -0400
We are watching the development of invest 94L!  The forecast is alluding to us having here in Dominica maybe up to 4" of rain!  This would not be good at all.  We will get flooding and landslides!!  Everyone living in areas where this is a possibility must stay vigilant.  It is also forecast that we will have gusty winds up to 35mph and maybe higher!  

As I am writing this here in the valley it is quite overcast and we are experiencing some light winds.

The weather people forecast invest 94L will come in later this afternoon and be here through the night!

We will keep our fingers crossed that it is not as bad as forecast.

Everyone be watchful, thoughtful and most of all stay safe.

Virus-free. www.avg.com

- Potential Tropical Cyclone or Fred...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Aug 2021 03:53:31 +0000 (UTC)
As the tropical system labelled as invest 94L steadily approaches the islands- the possibility of the Lesser Antilles rule coming into effect is quite probable. This would favor increased or rapid strengthening of the system near or over the island chain. Fred is almost certainly in the making & preparations need to be taken. The last thing the islands need from Trinidad-northwards is a 'surprise' storm.

To quote the NHC: 
"The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday, and then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. *Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with shorter-than-normal lead times for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system..."

Let's hope that the expected impacts such as the rainfall accumulations will not produce anything nearly as devastating as the recent floods in Northwest Trinidad & Tobago. Our hearts go out to those who were badly affected in North Trinidad.
See: https://newsday.co.tt/2021/08/06/mud-thicker-than-water/

Stay safe everyone, And Be Prepared.

- Vigilance...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Sun, 8 Aug 2021 03:05:19 +0000 (UTC)
Cyclogenesis is definitely imminently occurring with 93L in the Atlantic, and also with soon to be 94L, which also already appears to have a closed low level centre of circulation. This could be a very busy week ahead Re: possible Cyclonic impacts. 

This time around I'm waiting to see whether early warnings will be issued via the Potential Tropical cyclone advisories if its Warranted. And I'm noting more importantly how long it will take the Barbados Meteorological Service to issue the relevant watch/ warning advisories for the Nature island of the Caribbean; Dominica - should it become necessary.


- August -Look out You Must ...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Sat, 7 Aug 2021 20:15:38 +0000 (UTC)
As the hurricane Poem and Sailor's Ode goes in August one must be on the Look out for potential landfalling systems- as come they must this time of year. With the evolution & control of the pandemic complicated by variants this will be a double whammy as Cyclogenesis appears imminent with likely impacts for the Lesser Antilles islands.
Precautionary measures and Lockdowns are in place in various island territories at the moment including ours.
The 2021 season seems likely to ramp up as we begin to get into the peak of the Hurricane season after a brief lull. This is no time for complacency whatsoever as things begin to heat up. The islands are unlikely to have the luck of 2020 when we were largely spared major impacts. Praying and trusting that the right preparations will be made at every level in our islands should a tropical cyclone threaten our island chain over the course of the coming week.
Stay safe and stay prepared everyone.


- Tropical wave
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2021 11:30:58 -0400
Since yesterday afternoon around 12.30 pm we have been experiencing very blustery winds and heavy rain showers.  The temperature is also around 69C.  As I write this, our two dogs are curled up beside me fast asleep.  The wind is blowing the rain at me on our deck.  It definitely is not summer Caribbean weather.  Having said that, the forecast is meant to be stable until the end of the month!!

We will watch this space.

Virus-free. www.avg.com

- Hurricane Elsa
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 3 Jul 2021 11:34:35 -0400
Yesterday!  Dominica was very lucky!  Here in the valley there was very little weather to be honest!  The wind was gusty and the rain sporadic.  We had one branch fall across our driveway, luckily no damage at all.

I have to say where we live is in a valley. We are encircled by the cliffs of the layou river and the mountains around us and we are on a plateau so very sheltered.

Everyone was sent home from work around 9.30 am.  This did cause heavy traffic and some congestion!  It is so early in the season I guess no one was really geared up for decision making!  Hopefully, this will be a lesson learned and the right decision made with plenty of warning in the future.!!

The birds this morning were very hungry and sat on our deck in full voice demanding their breakfast.  I gave them double of course!

I have only heard of fallen trees, no serious flooding and a piece of road that has fallen into the sea by Dubeque!

Our deepest sympathies go to the islands that have suffered badly from hurricane Elsa.  We have still to hear.  We feel particularly for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.  Having the volcano and now hurricane Elsa!😢  Barbados too, also St. Lucia and Martinique.

There is more bad weather coming, we have to brace ourselves.  Keep stocked up and do not let our guard down.

God bless us all.

Virus-free. www.avg.com

- Breathing a Collective Sigh of Relief...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Sat, 3 Jul 2021 13:59:57 +0000 (UTC)
The situation in the Nature Island of the Caribbean, Dominica has been quite fortunate, and rather providential- following the passage of minimal Hurricane Elsa to our south as a category one hurricane. To God Be the Glory! Overall conditions were not too bad across the island, and there were very few incidents to report at all. All Utilities remained fully functional at my present location on the West coast of the island and all infrastructure was left intact. 

The Blustery conditions from early Friday soon abated into the early evening, and we have certainly been counting our blessings! One appreciates that things Could have been very different,+ and much worse across the region. Especially given that Elsa was an historic and unprecedented storm gaining strength to hurricane force whilst moving at almost 30mph. One shudders even to think of what could have been especially for our neighbouring isles to the south had Elsa been going at half that speed, which is the usual Forward momentum of these tropical systems. That would have allowed the storm to strengthen even more and would have potentially been nearer the intensity of Tomas (2010).

Our thoughts and Prayers go out to the territories that may yet lie in Elsa's direct path. And of course, our hearts and intercession go out to those adversely affected by Elsa across the region- including those impacted by the heavy feeder band activity of the hurricane which produced flood damages in Grenada & Trinidad.

& To our badly affected brothers and sisters especially in Barbados, St. Vincent and St. Lucia/ Martinique we extend our deepest empathy, care and concern at this challenging time. & Deepest condolences go out to the family of the loved one who died in St. Lucia during the passage of Hurricane Elsa. https://stluciatimes.com/pm-confirms-one-fatality-as-elsa-damage-assessment-continues/ 

Currently, the weakened 'tail' of Elsa is generating some lingering showers of Blessings in Dominica. 
Keep safe everyone & do continue to remain vigilant as this 2021 hurricane season progresses.

Blessings to All!

- Upgraded Advisory for the Nature Isle...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Fri, 2 Jul 2021 15:30:03 +0000 (UTC)
 We are now under a Tropical Storm warning... which was Seriously Long overdue IMO. Still, better late than never.
Stay safe everyone. Thoughts and Prayers to SVG and St. Lucia in particular.


- Official Arrival...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Fri, 2 Jul 2021 15:19:23 +0000 (UTC)
Elsa is definitely making her presence felt. Gusts are now near tropical storm force on the West Coast, & perhaps a bit higher in some areas I would suspect relative to elevation etc. 
Occasional rain bands with squalls have been ongoing during the last hour or so. However, impact wise- its So far so good though. Hoping that no serious damage will result from Elsa's passage.
Everyone Please stay safe while this system passes through our island chain.

God Bless our region!

- The only Sensible thing to do...Storm Watch issued.
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Fri, 2 Jul 2021 13:19:32 +0000 (UTC)
Finally, just over a Couple hours ago, the Barbados Meteorological services issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Nature Island of the Caribbean, Dominica...
This was frankly speaking inevitable in my view, and Over-due to be quite Honest. Lisette and myself can now rest our case on that matter. 

Still it's unfortunate & a sort of reactive designation of an advisory for the island-since many persons have gone to work etc. Mainly due to the fact that there was no watch or warning issued up to early this morning. Hopefully, the word gets around and persons will head home early.
Stay safe everyone. & Thoughts, Prayers and Love for the islands to our South. Hoping Elsa will be a good 'girl' when All is said and done. So far conditions are overcast and the wind gusts are regular enough. More rough weather is undoubtedly headed our way. Praying & hoping for the best for everyone. We are All in this together. #Caribbean Strong!


- Tropical storm Elsa.
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 2 Jul 2021 07:01:58 -0400
We had an interesting night.   There were some gusty winds in the night!  Sitting on the deck this morning I can feel the wind kicking up.  We have put everything in readiness, changed the tank of gas.

We notice a lot of parrots flying around at the moment.  We always worry about the birds.  I feed the birds every day.  When they get really hungry they fly right up to me chirping at me until I go get them some more food.

I am so surprised that nobody here has been told to stay home from work!!  I hope people are sensible enough to do so without being told.

Climate change is real.  Please everyone be safe

Virus-free. www.avg.com

- Evolvement...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Fri, 2 Jul 2021 08:32:43 +0000 (UTC)
Sadly, Tropical storm Elsa seems to be going into RI mode (Rapid intensification) at this moment. It looks like the Hwrf model was right All along including certain runs of the Euro model which indicated that a much stronger system could affect the islands when Elsa would make landfall irrespective of its Forward speed etc. 
God be with All of our islands. This is literally the 'face' of Climate change in our part of the World, And our Meteorological departments need to Wake-UP to this reality.

Thus, It's nice to see Meteorological proactivity & due -prudence being served by the Netherlands (Dutch) Government as a Tropical storm Watch has been issued for St. Eustacius/ Saba. This is the type of precautionary logic and timely measures which are needed as a means of ultimately safeguarding populations and implementing the best public advisory approaches that will save lives in the case of any potential or evolving tropical weather hazards.

The winds continue to pick up here on the outside probably nearing 26-28mph already in gusts, and only time will tell what mid morning to midday might look like here in the Nature isle. Stay safe everyone especially those to our South.


- Likely an avoidable mistake...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Fri, 2 Jul 2021 04:15:27 +0000 (UTC)
 The following excerpt is pretty self explanatory Re: Elsa's likely impacts in the Dominica/ Guadeloupe area  & possibly areas further beyond. Elsa is certainly not your typical Tropical storm system and its proven itself to be historic already... 

Thus this system may have been under-estimated in its potential wind impacts etc. especially to be visited soon upon the islands in its northern quadrant like Dominica. The non-issuance of at least a tropical storm watch will have proven to be fool- hardy to say the least, and meteorologically incompetent at the height.

The 11p.m. NHC Advisory states as follows:
-Recent satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts...
Recent satellite wind data also indicates the tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly to the north of the center. NOAA Buoy 41040, located *more than 200 miles north of the center of Elsa, recently reported a wind gust of 38 mph (61 km/h).
*(N.B. That buoy was more than 200 north of the center of Elsa- with an Expanding windfield.)
-*WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of theWindward and *southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas on Friday. 
Therefore, it's almost a certainty that sustained tropical storm force winds will be experienced by some parts of the island (mainly in the south) if not all of Dominica in its entirety for some period of time on Friday- Saturday. We are already getting fresh to strong wind gusts already, and conditions are expected to continue deteriorating as Friday wears on. Time will surely tell. Regards & prayers for the islands to our South. One Love!
Just my personal insights here though... Please Stay safe everyone, listen to the authorities as always, and be prepared come what may.

- Tropical storm Elsa
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 1 Jul 2021 12:29:59 -0400
Dominica should be on storm watch!  We are surprised that it is not!  Michael Colaire is too!

We had a very good night with no rain really and not rough weather which was actually a big surprise and it kept me awake as I kept expecting bad weather.  Very strange night indeed.

Today it has been extremely windy but right now we have a very beautiful sunny day.  In fact, good enough that we have washing on the line!  I am sure it will dry today.  The garden is looking awesome, very green.  Dominica is so beautiful.  We can hear the Layou river in the distance, the sound of rushing water!  Music to the ears.

Everyone who is reading this who lives in Dominica needs to take all precautions for Tropical storm Elsa.  Dominica will definitely in my humble opinion be affected.  So anyone living in vulnerable places needs to be very alert to this situation.

Please be safe everyone.

Virus-free. www.avg.com

- Declaration/ Designation Enigma...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Thu, 1 Jul 2021 13:11:28 +0000 (UTC)
Its baffling annually as to why there is such perpetual ambivalence and general inertia around the issuance of advisories for the Commonwealth of Dominica, the Nature Island of the Caribbean. Currently, Our island falls under the Meteorological responsibility of Barbados, however, apparently there seems to be a perennial reservation or reluctance to issue precautionary watches/ warnings within an early enough window as opposed to our immediate French neighbouring islands.

Case in point being the approach of T.S. Elsa. Yesterday, French authorities promptly issued a tropical storm watch for Guadeloupe which is to our North, and for Martinique which lies to our South. And yet Dominica (in the middle) has remained without even a Tropical storm watch being issued up to this morning by the relevant officials. Now, although the track  for Elsa has potentially shifted more south today, the possibility exists for track changes/ wobbles, or periphery impacts or greater which would at least warrant issuing a watch for the island of Dominica.

Delaying designation for an island, and then having issuance of watches/ warnings with only a short notice of time is not just unhelpful to the preparation of the general public -it is downright civically and meteorologically irresponsible, & somewhat reckless to say the least.

On a positively responsible & proactive note- I see that Trinidad and Tobago's Meteorological services, which has responsibility for Grenada and its dependencies has issued a tropical storm watch for Grenada given the likely adjustment of Elsa's track more southward.
Let's keep vigilant.

- Tracking Tropical Storm Elsa etc.
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Thu, 1 Jul 2021 11:58:25 +0000 (UTC)
Thankfully Post 95L which is also Tropical wave (TW) 14 was pretty mild altogether here in the Nature Island of the Caribbean. 
It was a very wet disturbance, and turned out to be sort of a Combo of TW09 and TW11, which gave us a bit of a 'sprinkling' for the first half of Father's day a bit before then. Yesterday featured the typical showers and thunder showers one would expect with the passing of a tropical system with some windy conditions by the evening, but Nothing out of the ordinary. Though there was a westerly component at times to the winds in the very early evening. 

Its undeniable  that in many ways Ex 95L seems to have been a precursor to T.S. Elsa.
Of course, we are all grateful that former 95L was nothing worse. It certainly had the potential to do what Elsa (former Invest- 97L) is doing now given that its in a more favourable environment than 95L ever was- albeit at a lower latitude. It's definitely a wait and see as to the exact track that Elsa will take. Its wind field seems to be expanding somewhat so some wind impacts for the islands further north may be the greatest concern rather than rainfall hopefully. However, as always one should never fail to prepare. Every storm is different and irrespective of forecasts things can change very quickly with tropical weather systems. Category 5 Monster Hurricane Maria in 2017 taught us all an unforgettable lesson in rapid intensification right near the island chain ('the Lesser Antilles rule'). 

At this point it appears that the more southerly islands could take 'the brunt' of this system. We are All in this together... Praying and trusting God for the very best outcome, & that whatever impacts come that Lives will be spared across our region. Also, keeping a weary eye eastward... the next tropical wave after tropical storm Elsa already seems to have a defined low level center of circulation.
Keep safe Everyone & stay prepared.

- 95L
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2021 18:20:56 -0400
In the valley we have had a lot of heavy rain, wind, thunder and lightning.  We also have had no electricity most of the day, no internet either.  We have got both now.  Hence writing this report.

It is so very early in the season to have this wealther.  

We could be looking at Tropical storm/hurricane Elsa coming on Friday into Saturday.  This does not look good at all.  Please be prepared that you may have to make contingency plans.

Please everyone be very vigilant.  

We hope everyone gets a good nights sleep! 

- 95L
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2021 07:11:47 -0400
We have had some very heavy showers in the night and brisk winds.  This morning in the valley, the sky is grey and cloudy. The weather is looking very rough and it is early in the season!  On the heels of 95L is possible tropical storm Elsa which could be really nasty.

People living in areas that can flood and are prone to landslides.  Should be watchful and vigilant.

Hopefully everyone is stocking their cupboards and making sure they are prepared for anything.  

Our friend Michael Colaire keeps us up technically with his very substantial reports.  

Virus-free. www.avg.com

- All Eyes turned Eastward...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2021 05:05:11 +0000 (UTC)

All Eyes are Eastward indeed... so far the convection preceding 95L has provided some moderate showers in the Nature Isle of the Caribbean; Dominica. We'll see what the rest of Wednesday into Thursday brings for our chain of islands.

'The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is maintaining a high level of early-season activity, with two disturbances that potentially could become tropical storms'. At this rate 97L looks like it might beat 95L to being a named storm. However, given what Tropical Wave 09 did by suddenly intensifying near and over Barbados anything is still possible where intensification of systems near our island chain goes. It's a wait and see at this point. And with more favourable conditions ahead of 95L as it nears the Windwards it could suddenly start to get its act together,  God forbid.
Irrespective of its intensity and named status squally & stormy conditions are expected by tomorrow into early Thursday, and then again but more severely by late Friday with what could be T.S Elsa or Fred by then approaching the Windward islands.

'In fact, On Wednesday evening, when 95L will be nearing the Lesser Antilles Islands, sea surface temperatures will warm to 27.5 degrees Celsius (82°F), making it more likely 95L could wall off the dry air and form a strong inner core region of heavy thunderstorms resistant to the dry air. The system’s more northerly position, farther from the equator, will aid this process.' (Meteos.doc)

Smaller systems are generally more complex and it will need to be watched closely as the "Lesser Antilles rule" is likely to come into effect providing for some likely intensification as 95L slows a bit upon nearing the Lesser Antilles, which is a more moist environment with warmer sea surface temperatures. Of course as always time will tell.

On the other hand, 97L seems to be in full Tropical cyclogenesis mode and has the potential to be a strong tropical storm before nearing the islands- if not much higher in intensity. The 95L/97L tropical cyclo-development could produce a scenario similar to that of Emily (2005). A absolute worst case scenario would be the likes of a Janet (1955) or Flora (1963) or Tomas (2010) with rapid intensification possible. Hopefully climatology is still on our side thus far, but with Global warming at work All possibilities appear to be at play.
Let's All Stay safe and prepared especially in the Windward islands as these systems approach from the East & South east.


- 95L
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2021 10:19:45 -0400
Dominica is enjoying some sunny windy weather.  We are keeping our eyes on 95L.  We hope that this weather does not strengthen too much.  It is early in the season!

To be honest it is nearly July and the temperature is not as hot as it used to be.  Are we honestly heading for a new ice age?  We are feeling climate change world wide, we think.

It does look by the tracking that 95L could touch Dominica so we must be prepared and make sure we have the right stores in our cupboards.  Check the generator is working if you have one.  That you have batteries for the torches and oil for the lamps.

Virus-free. www.avg.com

- Potential Tropical Cyclogenesis for TW11?
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2021 22:12:43 +0000 (UTC)
Tropical Wave 11 certainly needs to be watched as it nears the islands. It appears that Some further development and organisation is possible although the official percentage for chances of formation have been lowered considerably from the NHC. However, that might change soon though as the system now has a distinct enough low pressure area & some vorticity etc. Time will surely tell...

From the 2p.m. Tropical Weather Outlook:
"Recent visible satellite imagery indicates a weak area of low pressure has formed along a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands..."

Unfortunately, the "Lesser antilles rule may take effect which could lead to some intensification of this system to tropical depression/storm strength if the Upper Level winds turn out to be favourable enough for formation near the islands. But that's a big If -although its possible.

Let's be on guard though as previously weak and meteorologically 'dismissed' systems have formed near or over the islands - cases in point being Cindy; 1993, Debby 1994, & more recently- Rafael in 2012 & Matthew (2016).
Stay safe everyone, and let's keep an eye out down the road for the next anticipated active system as also mentioned by Isabel- Its a week away & unfortunately could be a named system when nearing the Lesser Antilles islands.

Stay safe everyone.
God Bless!

- Monday
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2021 17:16:16 -0400
A pretty good day overal!!  It rained in the night a bit and in the morning for a while.  Just about mid morning the clouds began to lift and blue skies appear like magic.

We got the washing done!!  It is dry and put away!  A good day.

Some of the island was very dry so the 3 days we had the wet weather was welcomed by some.

Our water tanks are full and clean too!  

Hopefully the week will be uneventful weatherwise!

- Sunday
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2021 11:23:58 -0400
This morning started with a lot of rain so much so that for the first time in a long time we had a lay in.  There is something very cozy lying in bed with the sound of the rain beating down on the tin roof!  It actually was a very nice change.

The weather so far this morning is literally very changeable!  One minute of bright sunshine, then it darkens and we are getting heavy rainfall.  Only so far one or two claps of thunder.  The tropical wave seems to be hanging over Dominica today.

We suggest everyone stays safe and we think there will be some flooding in the usual places.  Hopefully no landslides and no damage to any properties.

It is sad that we are having this weather on Father's day!  It has put a bit of a damper on things😢😱!

Happy Fathers Day to all Fathers out there.

We hope everyone here stays safe and dry.  Take care.

Virus-free. www.avg.com

- Weird day
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2021 15:35:59 -0400
Since early this morning we have had rain on and off plus thunder and lightning.  The whole day has felt very strange.  In between the rain we have sunshine!  Now as I am writing this there has been another heavy shower and the sun is trying to peak out behind the clouds.

It has not been windy, just very still.

It is hard to see what will happen tonight and tomorrow.

Hopefully, just showers.

Virus-free. www.avg.com

- Tropical Wave
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2021 09:43:32 -0400
Luckily for us, the weather was not too bad.  We had a lot of rain, thunder and lightning plus gusty winds.  The usual bit of flooding but nothing drastic!  We have been blessed as they say!

It looks like today will get brighter and hopefully be back to normal over the weekend!  Barbados, had quite a lot of damage from  the tropical storm!  Apparently,  flooding too.  We feel for them.  It is the first bit of weather for the hurricane season.  Not a good start to the season at all.

We need to make sure we are all prepared for the season, by having everything we need in our homes.

Virus-free. www.avg.com

  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2021 13:08:28 -0400
A senior moment, Erika 2015!  LOL thanks!

Virus-free. www.avg.com

- Tail end of Tropical wave 09...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2021 16:50:57 +0000 (UTC)

This has been a classic Nature Island rainy day as I remember them from childhood and into adolescence complete with thunder showers and an occasional gust for good measure. Its A book/ kindle- iPad day for sure. Maybe a bit more washout conditions may follow this afternoon. So far its Let up to a drizzle... 'Back in the day' schools would have had a half day, and all the kids would have been bathing in the rain... at times even au naturel (minus the lightning of course). Ah, the Joys & innocence of those days & the carefree nature of youth when matters like climate change was a merely remote idea- a truly distant concept. Today unfortunately in the Caribbean it's quite a reality with an almost all too real perennial manifestation with the wet/ rainy- hurricane season. So our thoughts and Prayers are with those who have been adversely affected in the islands of Barbados & St. Vincent. Re: the potency of this latest tropical wave (09). It appears that the Euro model was pretty spot on. It seems that similar active and vigorous tropical weather may be in store for the islands in the next couple weeks. As Lisette mentioned we certainly cannot forget our ordeals with T.S. Erika which was actually in 2015, & One shudders even to mention the name of the Category 5- Super-Catastrophic hurricane; Maria in 2017. God forbid the likes of anything such... Nevertheless, let's All remain vigilant & prepared in our region as we head more into the heart of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane season. 
 Blessings to All!

- Tropical Wave
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2021 06:54:47 -0400
We have woken up to wet, wet, wet.  I am sitting here on our deck!  It is 6.45 am!  It is extremely dark and very wet!  In fact the rain is just coming down straight.  The good thing for us is that it is filling up our water tanks!  We are not quite sure which direction the weather is coming from.

When it rains like this we are always worried about flooding and landslides big time!  We here in Dominica will never ever forget Erika in 2017!  It definitely is not a day for a river bath!  LOL

We hope everything and everyone stays safe today.  Also that the other islands do not have too much flooding or other damage!  Hurricane season is here!  Pouring rain right now.

Virus-free. www.avg.com

- Tropical Wave 09 bears watching still...
  • By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
  • Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2021 03:16:02 +0000 (UTC)
Greetings from the Nature Isle... hopefully, this approaching Tropical wave (#09) will not be a vigorous wave in the making. Time will tell as to the likely impacts of this latest tropical surge of moisture in the Lovely island of Dominica and elsewhere.

The saving Grace is that we get the Liquid gold now and not necessarily on Father's Day. Fingers crossed...
Trusting that this hurricane season will not turn out to be as bad as feared... Let's make no mention of 2017 please.

It might be a bit too early in the season for the 'Lesser Antilles rule' to kick in for any rapid strengthening or intensification of systems so we should be okay with this one as just a major rain maker at the worst. 
Stay safe everyone and all the best to our region this Hurricane season.
Thoughts & Prayers to All. 
& do Keep safe especially for those in our sister isles that are being hard hit by Covid etc. Love to SVG & SKN!
God Bless!

- PS
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2021 17:37:12 -0400
2017?  Is there any likelihood that the H season has similarities at this stage to the 2017 hurricane season??

- Dominica
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2021 15:33:43 -0400
I know, long time,no hear!! Sorry folks!

I know all of us worldwide are suffering with the covid pandemic and the effects it has on our world today so it is very upsetting for everyone!!

Dominica is definitely a little piece of heaven so far, we have had very few Covid cases than other countries and luckily no deaths!  The doctors and nursing staff have been phenomenal!   We have to thank them sincerely!

The weather has been very unusual for the Caribbean!  It is June!  Sitting on our deck in the morning.  I still have to wear something on my feet and a jumper!!  It seems to me that global warming is global icing??  Are we headed for another ice age??

We are watching out for this hurricane season and already keeping our fingers and toes crossed that the hurricanes do not visit us in any detrimental way.  With the lack of tourism all the islands are struggling and for any island to get hit with any bad hurricane would be devastating.

Luckily in Dominica we have a lot of land and a lot of farming, we have water too.  We are truly lucky.  

We are also lucky because we have been having quite a bit of rain!  Today is one minute hot and humid then cloudy and raining.

We have a tropical wave approaching.  We are back on track and will be reporting for this hurricane season for Dominica.  The beautiful Nature Island of the Caribbean!  One Love.

We never forget Pirates of the Caribbean being filmed in Dominica.  Here are two of my paintings of Jack Sparrow and his Girl.  Great memories.

We hope the tropical wave is gentle.

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