Post-tropical Cyclone Barry

- as issued by NHC/TPC -

| home | satellite | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive

TOOLS: distance | closest point | storm-centered image and loop |

Skip to: public advisory (en Español) - discussion - wind speed - forecast/advisory


Public Advisory:

Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry Advisory Number  23
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL022019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY DRIFTING INTO MISSOURI...
...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ARKANSAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 92.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNW OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...15 MPH...30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 26 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flash Flood Watches are in effect from the ARKLATEX eastward
through the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley.

Flood Warnings are in effect for portions of far southeast Texas,
southern Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi.

Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for portions of the
Louisiana coast.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry
was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 92.8 West, or very
close to the Arkansas and Missouri border close to Branson, MO.
Barry is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and
is expected to turn toward the northeast overnight. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Maximum sustained winds are near 15 mph (30 km/h) with higher
gusts. Most of the 15 mph sustained winds are well removed from
the center, with breezy southeasterly winds near the Mississippi
River. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours. The models forecast Barry to maintain a loosely defined and
weak surface circulation through Wednesday night. The circulation
will beome increasingly shallow and stretched, and may not survive
when it reaches terrain in western Pennsylvania on Thursday. The
system should, however, remain capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Barry is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts
of 8 inches across Arkansas, western Tennessee and Kentucky,
southeast Missouri, and northwest Mississippi.

Rainfall had ended in Texas and Louisiana. Storm total amounts there
were generally between 3 and 6 inches, but with embedded swaths of
dramatically higher totals. One gauge measured 23.43 inches was made
to the north of Lake Charles, Louisiana, near Ragley.

TORNADOES:  A couple of brief tornadoes are possible Tuesday from
southern Arkansas toward the western Tennessee Valley and Lower
Ohio Valley.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next public advisory will be issued at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Burke

INIT  16/0300Z 36.7N  92.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  16/1200Z 38.1N  91.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  17/0000Z 39.1N  89.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  17/1200Z 39.8N  86.7W   10 KT  10 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  18/0000Z 40.1N  83.1W   10 KT  10 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  19/0000Z...Dissipated



Aviso Público:

Depresion Tropical Barry Advertencia Numero 21
Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami FL       AL022019    
Traducido por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 
1000 AM CDT lunes 15 de julio de 2019

...DEPRESION TROPICAL BARRY CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE AL NORTE 
HACIA ARKANSAS...
...INUNDACIONES DEBIDO A LLUVIAS CONTINUASIENDO PROBABLES HASTA EL 
MARTES EN LA MANANA...


RESUMEN DE LAS 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION....35.1 norte 93.4 oeste  
ALREDEDOR DE 145 MI...235 KM AL oso DE LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...25 MPH...35 KM/H 
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...norte O 10 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H 
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS  


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
Vigilancias de inundaciones y avisos estan en efecto a traves de 
sectores del sureste de Texas hasta incluyendo partes del valle de 
Mississippi.

No has vigilancias o avisos costeros en efecto.


DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO
---------------------- 
A la 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), el centro de la 
depresion tropical Barry estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 35.1 
norte, longitud 93.4 oeste. La depresion tropical se esta moviendo hacia al 
norte a cerca de 12 mph (19 km/h) y se espera que este movimiento 
continue mas del noreste el martes y mas del este el miercoles. 

Vientos maximos sostenidos cerca de 25 mph (35 km/h) con rafagas mas 
fuertes. Se pronostican pequenos cambios durante las proximas 48 
horas. 

La presion minima central estimada es 1007 mb (29.74 pulgadas). 


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
------------------------- 

LLUVIA: Se espera que Barry produzca acumulaciones de lluvia de 2 a 
4 pulgadas a traves de sectores Valle bajo de Mississippi con 
acumulaciones maximas aisladas de hasta 10 pulgadas a traves del 
este de Arkansas, oeste de Tennessee, suroeste Missouri y noroeste 
de Mississippi.

Una banda de lluvias fuertes esta afectando sectores del centro de 
Louisiana al suroeste de Mississippi. Lluvi adicional de 3 a 5 
pulgadas con algunos totales aislados de hasta 8 pulgadas se esperan con 
esta banda a traves de la tarde. Es posible inundaciones 
repentinas peligrosas a traves del area durante esta manana. 

TORNADOS: Algunos tornados son posibles hoy desde el Mid-South 
hasta el Lower Ohio Valley.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
Proxima advertencia completa a las 400 PM CDT.


Discussion:
TCDAT2  
  
Tropical Depression Barry Discussion Number  18  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019  
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019  
  
Barry's convective pattern in radar and satellite imagery has  
continued to erode, and the center has become more difficult to  
locate in radar imagery.  Surface observations from the Shreveport,  
Louisiana, area were helpful in locating Barry's position.  Although  
sustained surface winds of 34-36 kt have been occurring during the  
past few hours at the NOAA NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana  
(PACL1), those winds are not directly associated with Barry's  
circulation and are instead locally accelerated straight-line winds.  
Therefore, Barry's intensity has been lowered to 30 kt for this  
advisory, making the cyclone a tropical depression.  
  
The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt.  Barry is forecast to  
continue moving northward tonight around the western periphery  
of a deep-layer ridge, and then turn toward the north-northeast  
and northeast late Monday into Tuesday.  The new NHC track forecast  
is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend  
of the various consensus models TCVA, TVDG, and HCCA.  
  
Barry will weaken further during the next 48 hours as the cyclone  
continues to move inland, degenerating into a post-tropical remnant  
low pressure system by Monday night and dissipating on Tuesday over  
the Middle Mississippi Valley.  
  
Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the  
potential for flooding, including river flooding, will continue from  
Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley.  
  
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane  
Center on Barry.  Future information on this system can be found in  
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning  
at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and  
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.  
  
Key Messages:  
  
1. Life-threatening flash flooding is expected along Barry's path  
inland from Louisiana through portions of Arkansas, Mississippi,  
southeast Missouri, and western Tennessee through at least Monday.  
Significant river flooding is also likely across south-central  
Louisiana.  
  
2. Gale-force winds, especially in gusts, will be possible into  
this evening over the coastal areas of southwestern Louisiana.  
However, these winds are not directly associated with Barry's  
circulation.  
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
  
INIT  14/2100Z 32.8N  93.6W   30 KT  35 MPH  TD...INLAND
 12H  15/0600Z 33.9N  93.6W   25 KT  30 MPH  TD...INLAND
 24H  15/1800Z 35.3N  93.5W   20 KT  25 MPH  TD...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  16/0600Z 36.8N  92.8W   20 KT  25 MPH  TD...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  16/1800Z 38.2N  91.4W   15 KT  15 MPH  TD...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND  
  
$$  
Forecaster Stewart
Note: Storm classification added by stormcarib.com
TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...


Wind Speed:
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022019               
2100 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ALEXANDRIA LA  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
FORT POLK LA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  


Forecast/Advisory:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022019
2100 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N  93.6W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N  93.6W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N  93.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.9N  93.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.3N  93.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.8N  92.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 38.2N  91.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N  93.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2, WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


products older than 1 day are not shown

Back to top | home | satellite | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive