Tropical Depression Kirk

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Public Advisory:

Tropical Depression Kirk Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...KIRK WEAKER AND ACCELERATING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 35.5W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kirk
was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 35.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h).  A
rapid westward motion is anticipated for the next day or two.
A slight decrease in forward motion is expected by mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in the maximum winds is forecast during
the next several days. It is possible that Kirk could degenerate
into a trough of low pressure during the next day or two while it
moves quickly across the tropical central Atlantic.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Aviso Público:

TORMENTA TROPICAL KIRK ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   6 
CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL122018 
TRADUCIDO POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR 
500 PM AST DOMINGO 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2018

...KIRK MOVIENDOSE RAPIDAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE SOBRE EL
OCEANO ATLANTICO TROPICAL...


RESUMEN DE LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMACION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION....9.5 NORTE 32.3 OESTE              
ALREDEDOR DE 645 MI...1040 KM SO DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE MAS AL SUR
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 280 GRADOS A 21 MPH...33 KM/H 
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS  


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.


DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO
----------------------
A las 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical Kirk
estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 9.5 norte, longitud 32.3 oeste.
Kirk se esta moviendo hacia el oeste a cerca de 23 mph (37 km/h).
Se espera un movimiento rapido hacia el oeste a traves del Oceano
Atlantico tropical hasta el martes.

Los vientos maximos sostenidos estan cerca de 40 mph (65 km/h) con 
rafagas mas altas. Se espera algun fortalecimiento durante los proximos
uno a dos dias. Debilitamiento es probable durante mediados a finales 
de la semana.

Los vientos de intensidad de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 
70 millas (110 km) del centro.

La presion minima central estimada es de 1006 mb (29.71 pulgadas).


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
Ninguno.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
Proxima advertencia completa a las 1100 PM AST.


Discussion:
TCDAT2  
  
Tropical Depression Kirk Discussion Number   7  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018  
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018  
  
Kirk is looking increasingly disheveled in satellite imagery. A pair  
of ASCAT passes between 2300 and 0000 UTC indicated that Kirk has  
likely opened up into a trough of low pressure and no longer has a  
closed surface circulation. However, no recent visible imagery or  
surface observations are available to confirm this. Since the ASCAT  
passes showed a few 25-30 kt wind vectors on the north side of the  
alleged circulation, Kirk is being maintained as a 30 kt tropical  
depression for now.  
  
The ASCAT data showed almost no sign of the previous surface center  
of Kirk, so the initial position was shifted significantly to the  
west, closer to the wave axis. As a result, the NHC track forecast  
has also been shifted significantly westward (faster) at all  
forecast hours, especially from 12-72 h. Whether Kirk is a  
tropical wave, depression, or storm, it should continue moving  
rapidly westward for the next couple of days. By mid-week, the  
system will reach a break in the subtropical ridge which will result  
in a slower forward speed as it approaches and enters the Caribbean.  
The NHC track forecast remains on the south side of the guidance  
envelope, and is closest to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA.  
  
It is likely that the fast forward speed is preventing Kirk from  
becoming better organized and strengthening, and the global models  
do not suggest that it will slow down substantially for the next  
couple of days. While it is not explicitly reflected in the  
forecast, Kirk could dissipate into a tropical wave at any time, if  
it hasn't already. By the end of the forecast period, the slower  
motion of Kirk could allow for some reorganization, however strong  
vertical wind shear over the Caribbean will likely prevent the  
system from significantly strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast  
has been adjusted down, and is now essentially a blend of the global  
and regional dynamical model forecasts.  
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
  
INIT  24/0300Z  9.4N  35.5W   30 KT  35 MPH  TD
 12H  24/1200Z  9.8N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH  TD
 24H  25/0000Z 10.0N  43.2W   35 KT  40 MPH  TS
 36H  25/1200Z 10.3N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH  TS
 48H  26/0000Z 10.6N  50.6W   35 KT  40 MPH  TS
 72H  27/0000Z 11.7N  56.2W   35 KT  40 MPH  TS
 96H  28/0000Z 13.0N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH  TS
120H  29/0000Z 14.0N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH  TD
  
$$  
Forecaster Zelinsky
Note: Storm classification added by stormcarib.com
TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...


Wind Speed:
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122018               
0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED     
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
 
GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
JUANGRIEGO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 


Forecast/Advisory:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122018
0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018

CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N  35.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N  35.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.4N  34.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z  9.8N  39.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.0N  43.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 10.3N  47.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 10.6N  50.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 11.7N  56.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 13.0N  60.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 14.0N  65.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.4N  35.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


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