Caribbean Hurricane Network

- 2 0 2 0  Season -

| home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive

- - - 2020 Season - - -
For the latest hurricane statements and satellite images see our Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator
Tools: How Close is it? - How close can it get? - My Satellite

Weather discussions by Gert & Dave during the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The homepage with the links to local reports from the islands, latest satellite image, current weather outlook can be found here.

Monday, August 10, 2020 13:45PM PDT - 95L
A tropical wave about 1900 miles east of the islands is showing a medium chance (60%) to become a tropical depression and maybe later tropical storm Josephine. Currently it is not that organized, but conditions further down are reasonably ok for slow development. Moving west/northwest at 15mph it is still 4-5 days from the islands. Most likely it will just cross north of the islands (see GFS ensemble image below from weathernerds.org or spaghetti plots above in the tools section). At that time it might have reached tropical storm strength, it is unlikely to become a hurricane before it reaches the islands. Still of course worth keeping an eye on. -Gert

- - - GFS Ensemble Forecast (August 10-15) - - -

Thursday, August 6, 2020 11:37AM PDT - August
Isaias is gone, and other than a tropical wave not much going on. It is already August, so let's see where we should look now for storm formation... The plot below taken from the climatology section shows storm origins over the last 76 years. It is color coded by how strong the storm became. Blue stars mean that it stayed 'just' a tropical storm, orange, red and pink stars became major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 and 5, resp.). We can clearly see that most storms are now forming in the Atlantic since it has warmed up sufficiently. Not good for us. It is "Cape Verde" season, with many storms forming just off the African coast. Of all storms forming this month, traditionally 44% are just tropical storms, and about 1 in 4 will become a major hurricane... So, if you haven't, now is a good time to check if you are prepared for the storm. Are your storm shutters in order? Do you have an emergency food supply? Batteries? Are your power banks (portable batteries to charge your phone) charged? Etc..., stay safe everyone and wear your masks if your government 'advises' you to do so.

Also, Klotzbach et al. of Colorado State just updated their hurricane forecast (see their website). Not surprisingly they upped their forecast. Things to blame: above normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, below normal vertical wind shear, and a possible weak La Nina. Total storms expected: 24 (12 is normal, 15 more storms this season). Hurricanes: 12 (normal is 6.4, 10 more to go...). Major hurricanes: 5 (2.7 is normal, 5 more to go...). Chance of at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (a big area): 63% (42% is average). It we would reach 24 storms than it would be the second busiest season 'ever'. Leading the chart is 2005 with 28 named storms (a year where we ran out of names, and dipped in the Greek alphabet). That was the year of Katrina, but a year of relative calm for us. -Gert

- - - Storm Origins August 1944-2019 - - -

Sunday, August 2, 2020 19:06PM EDT - Isaias and the rest

Good night all,

Former hurricane Isaias, now TS Isaias, possibly rejuvenated hurricane Isaias soon, is slowly crawling up the Florida east coast at 9 mph with 70 mph winds, all offshore at this time fortunately yet tantalizingly close enough to the coastline akin to Dorian and a few others the last few years. It's amazing to see storms that can just parallel the coastline without touching, so close yet so far. This is probably the worst to forecast storm I have ever had to report on since I started back in 1997. What a system in constant flux, changing conditions, and fighting skills. It has done one good thing: Not a dry but a wet and scary run to test readiness, responsiveness, and the patience of all along with a pandemic crisis. However, the toll has been heavy, paid for by Puerto Rico again, eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.Â

TS Isaias has been sparking up lately and quite possibly will reup to hurricane status as shear has dropped slightly while over the very comforting warm waters of the gulf stream, dry air intrusion lacking and a non interaction/friction with land. This does not bode well with points above Florida, especially the Carolinas. Here just above Daytona Beach, it has been a weekend as usual except for preparations just in case as we all should do: prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Looking up the east coast, all my friends should be looking out for heavy rains, flooding, trees down, power outages and short lived tornadoes.

94L is striving to attain a name for herself, which would be Josephine, as it continues to trek to the NW several hundred miles off to the NE of Antigua. Swells, high surf, rip currents and small craft advisories will be the only effects to theÂupper Lesser Antilles from this wannabe as it churns towards fish storm history. But it does continue a pattern of early season activity.

It appears we will have a break for a week or two in the action but that will not last long so complacency should not overtake your vigilanceÂor preparedness. We have the historically busy 8 weeks ahead soon and if the early part of this season is a harbinger of things to come, no one will be immune or safe from the possibilities that are to come.

Be safe, be prepared and enjoy your Sunday evening!

Dave.


Saturday, August 1, 2020 08:26AM EDT - Isaias and others

Good morning,

The Bahamas continue to take the brunt of discombobulated hurricane Isaias while Florida's east coast cringes and can only wait. 85 mph and moving to the NW at a much slower 12 mph, wind shear and dry air intrusion has been the twin factors in Isaias not becoming a Cat 3-4 hurricane. This is the good news. The bad news is Cat 1 hurricanes can still cause wind damage, power outages, spawn tornadoes, and cause severe flooding. Hurricane hunters are currently investigating the storm which is over very shallow and bathwater waters. We should have a better idea later today where landfall inÂFlorida, if it occurs, will happen. There is still much uncertainty. It does appear on satellite, despite the dry air intrusion and and wind shear interference, Isaias is trying to strengthen and wobbled a bit more west, bad news for the Fl coast.Â

Currently set to make landfall around West Palm Beach, a collection of pricey homes, mansion beachfront properties and high end shops, Isaias is expected after landfall to ride up the coast of Fla exiting just south of Daytona Beach back over open water as a strong TS. I am currentlyÂjust north of Daytona Beach and feel like a hurricane magnet! Regardless, this is what the latest model guidance suggests. A wobble to the west will be worse off for this coast while a wobble to the east could keep Isaias as a hurricane on a date with North and SouthÂCarolina then points all the way to Maine. Wobbles cannot be predicted and just a 20-40 mile wobble can mean the difference between severe damage and minimal damage. Hurricane Matthew is a very good example of this. Either way, not a good scenario for the whole east coast.

Ok off to the east of our Caribbean Islands we have two active areas. One, TD#10, had a small window of opportunity to get a name for itself but has now lost that opportunity. Located about 200 miles to the NE of the Cabo verde Islands just off the African coast, it is expected to turn west, weaken and dissipate. Maybe down the road it will regenerate. This season anything is possible.

Another area, basically a very weakÂtropical wave a few days ago, has moved into a more favorable area and appears to be taking advantage of it's opportunity. CurrentlyÂlocated about 600 miles to the east of Antigua, it's area of potential development is to the NW. Expected to turn to the NW then north, if it does develop, it will become a fish storm and no threat to the Caribbean.

The African Wave train continues to spew new potential trouble every few days and, as we enter August arriving into the peak months of hurricane season, it's even more important to prepare and be vigilant. There are 4 months left in the official season and we already have 9 named storms, a depression, and 2 hurricanes making landfall. A harbinger of things potentially on the horizon. This is not to scare anyone but to enlighten, educate and coax vigilance and preparedness.

Stay prepared and safe!

Dave.

Friday, July 31, 2020 08:11AM PDT - Isaias - Dorian
I just wanted to add to Dave's post that we all feel with the people on Grand Bahama and Abaco who last year were terribly hit by Dorian. Having another hurricane coming at you, and hearing the sounds again, can be extremely stressful. While Isaias is by far not as strong as Dorian, it is still a hurricane, and it will move pretty close by Grand Bahama. Hope you can prepare your home for the storm, or have a safe place to go (complicated with COVID). -Gert

Friday, July 31, 2020 07:02AM EDT - Hurricane Isaias + 93L

Good morning,Â

While some slept last night, TS Isaias was designated, an 80 mph hurricane around 11:40 pm last night, not long after the 11 pm advisory had been issued keeping it a TS. The difference is because hurricane hunter collected data had not reached the NHC yet in time for the 11am advisory. When it did, the storm was upgraded promptly instead of waiting for the intermediate 2am advisory in order to quickly update and warn the Turks & Caicos, Bahamas, and the east coast of the rising threat from this system. The pressure fell 9 Mb overnight indicating a strengthening storm system adding to the threat potential.

Isaias, the only 4 syllable hurricane with a mouthful to pronounce, replaced the infamousÂhurricane Ike, whose name was retired. Isaias is not expected to generate the same kind of damage and death toll Ike produced, but will have wide ranging and long lasting impacts. Unless something really changes, Isaias is expected to rake the Turks & Caicos, all of the Bahamas, and the entire east coast with winds, flooding rains, scattered power outages and storm surges. Hurricane warnings are up for the Bahamas where storm surge and wind damage will be prolific compounding the misery from hurricane Dorian last year and rebuilding efforts. Most of the stronger winds and rain are in the north and east quadrants with some dry air intrusion into the SW courtesy of Cuba and upper level wind shear.

Located about 350 SE of Nassau and having slowed forward speed to about 17 mph, Isaias will be moving over very warm waters and is forecast to slowly strengthen into a Cat 2 storm within 36 hours. Models have trended west overnight which puts Florida more in the crosshairs and I expect hurricane watches and warnings to start replacing the TS watch either as of 8 am or definitely the 11 am advisory as those models data plus new hurricane hunter flight data (they are in the storm now) is input into the forecast. If these trends continue, SE Florida could sustain a direct hit. As it stands now, Florida is on the weaker side of the storm with TS force winds, copious amountsÂof rain, and isolated tornadoes as main threats. Again, this is how it stands now. There are plenty of scenariosÂthough.

The uncertainty will soon become a certainty and that cone of uncertainty will certainly shrink over the next 24-36 hours. Whether you're in the cone or on the fringes, you can and will feel some impacts. This is a large storm with dangerous potential. As a TS, look what it did to Puerto Rico, an island devastated by Hurricane Maria in 2017 and still trying to recover.Â

As we watch Iasias try to join the ranks of the other 11 retired "I" storms and pray he doesn't, 93L is located about 250 miles SE of the Cabo Verde Islands with a half raised window of opportunity to become a TD but that will close quickly and 93L will become a fish storm and no threat to the Caribbean. Another wave located about 900 miles to the east of the Caribbean has very low potential at the moment and is expected to turn NW in a few days again, not a threat at this time to the Caribbean. There are a few vigorous waves crossing the African continent which will bear more vigilance and wariness in the coming weeks.

Be safe and prepare.

Dave.

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Thursday, July 30, 2020 07:32AM EDT - TS Isaias

Good morning,

Finally, as long expected, PTC #9, morphed into TS Isaias. Several reasons it took so long. The dry air to the north, it's broad, elongated structure stretching about 800 miles wide, lower humidityÂlevels in the low and mid levels, plus it's forward sprinters speed of 23 mph which didn't allow it to catch up with itself and take time to consolidate. However, it's ridden itself of most of these issues although it is still a large system and trucking along about 21mph to the NW as a 60 mph much better consolidated TS.

After lashing the lower Lesser Antilles yesterday and continuing to drought bust PR (multiple flash flood warnings are up) and all of the VI's with heavy rain bands, TS Isaias is expected to be north of Hispaniola by tonight and near the SE Bahamas tomorrow morning with the Turks and Caicos caught in the middle. TS warnings are up for most of the Greater Antilles, T&C, and the Bahamas.Â

Currently located about 60 miles to the WSW of Ponce PR, it's soon to be forecasted interaction with the mountains of the DR will determine alotÂof things, mainly future track and intensity. It's almost a given the mountains will disrupt the circulation if it does meet the mountains, and where that circulation reforms after that interaction is key much like Hurricane Dorians center was relocated to the north after interaction with the mountains in St. Lucia in 2019 and we know how that turned out. Farther to the east and it looks like the storm will track throughÂthe Bahamas and up the coast but sparing Florida a direct hit. Farther to the west, Florida is still in the crosshairs and even it's possible the GOM comes into play. It's a tricky forecast with Hurricane Hunters expected later this morning and this evening hoping to give more details as to structure, strength and speed.
Right now it actually looks like the center is gonna try to shoot the gap between PR and the DR aka the Mona Passage limiting interaction which would be a bad thing going forward. Then, a hurricane will be a definite.Â

Either way, with TS winds stretchingÂup to 415 miles from the center,, it's a sure bet almost everyone will be impacted direct hit or not. Flooding rains, gusty, even hurricane force winds, power outages and a surging ocean causing coastal flooding and erosion will occur. Please get your preparations done asap if you haven't already. This one isn't leaving much time.Â

Bottom line, a strong TS remains while a hurricane is probable. T&C, Bahamas and the entire SE coast of the US should be vigilant and ready.Â

Be safe and prepared.

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Wednesday, July 29, 2020 07:45AM EDT - The "I" storm

Good morning!

The sprawling systemÂthat has been designated Potential Tropical Storm or PTC 9 is still just that this morning, PTC 9. However, it is packing the same impacts as if it was a named storm at the moment with heavy rains, gusty 45-55 mph winds, flooding, and landslides.

Why isn't it named TS Isaias yet? No clear closed low level circulation. Hurricane Hunters have been unable to verify and close off the circulation hence it remains with high confidence, PTC 9. This designation allows the NHC to issue advisories ahead of what they say will become a named storm in order to make the public aware of the dangers and potential ahead. With TS warnings stretching from Martinique to the DR currently, the impacts will be as stated above. The rain is definitely needed as PTC 9 could be a drought buster for PR and the eastern islands but we don't need it all at once. Overnight, this system has strengthened a bit wind wise and tightened up so I do expect the name, Isaias today at some point.Â

Where it goes from the Eastern Caribbean is not so certain. The stronger it gets, the more of a northerly component it will take, possibly affecting the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, east coast and Bermuda. The more southerly trek would take it south of the VI, PR, the mountains of the DR and possibly into the Gulf where there is no escape but landfall. That trackÂcould slow it down development wise as it would interact with the mountains of the DR, disrupting any circulation that exists. While short term confidence is high, long term is not so much so time will tell but until it forms that closed circulation, it's a coin flip. I see a potential track similar to TS Fay in 2008 with Cuba, Haiti, the Dr and Florida the most susceptible to PTC 9.Â

A bit of trivia. The "I" storm is the most retired letter among hurricane names with 11. The next three, A,C, and F have only had 7 each retired. And we all remember the last one, hurricane Irma in 2017.

Be safe and prepared. This season is just ramping up and it's not even August yet.

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Tuesday, July 28, 2020 09:16AM PDT - Number Nine
Invest 92L has been upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. It still looks quite disorganized, and I don't see much circulation on the satellite loop. Regardless, winds are already 40 mph, which is actually tropical storm strength. I guess the only thing missing is a center of circulation to call this 'tropical wave' a tropical storm or depression. The advisories show that it will a tropical storm within 24 hours. The next name on the list is Isaias.

Where will it go? Depends on what you mean by it... Since there is no real center yet, don't pay too much attention to the forecasted track. This storm for sure is not a line. Just look at the satellite image above, high winds and rain will be felt far from the 'center'. Indeed, tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued all the way from Martinique in the south to the Dominican Republic (if your island is not specifically included, but your neighboring islands on both sides are, then consider yourself being on a watch/warning as well, just to be safe...).

The NHC thinks this storm will only strengthen slowly. Although sea surface temperatures are warm enough, this storm is still too disorganized. I think that indeed the storm will not all of a sudden become a monster wind-wise, like we have unfortunately seen many times in the past. Below image shows earliest reasonable arrival time of tropical storm winds. So people in the northeastern Caribbean start preparing for tropical storm conditions starting tomorrow AM! As most of the times..., rain will be the biggest threat. Torrential rainfalls will cause flash flooding and mudslides... Stay safe! -Gert

Expected Arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds {Tue, Jul.28 11:00AM)
Latest image at NHC

Monday, July 27, 2020 09:18AM PDT - Invest 92L
Invest 92L, about 1000 miles to the east of us, doesn't look like much on satellite images, but slowly but surely it seems to get organized a bit. Sea surface temperatures are plenty warm ahead of the storm, even above normal... (see last image on the satellite page). Right now the NHC gives it a 80% change to become something within 2 days. It will arrive Wednesday, hopefully it will pass just north on the islands, but a lot of models have it just going over the northeastern islands (see link to spaghetti plot above and below ensemble plot of the GFS model (from Weathernerds.org, ECMWF and UKMET Ensemble plots available as well). How strong will it be when it arrives...? Here models vary as well, probably a tropical storm, but it might be a Category 1 hurricane (see intensity link above and ensemble plots). However, as I mentioned above, sea surface temperatures are quite high, which act as fuel for the storm, so we could be in for a surprise. Hopefully not of course. As of now 92L is still 'nothing', but we will have to follow it closely. -Gert

- - - 5 Day GFS Ensemble - - -

Saturday, July 25, 2020 09:47AM EDT - Activity all over!

Good morning,

There's a saying that everything is bigger in Texas. Well, in this case, Hurricane Hanna is going to prove that statement. The 1st hurricane of the Atlantic season, Hanna, is about to plow into Texas with a large eye and large circulation as a Cat 1 forecasted storm south of Corpus Christi. I believe she also has a possibility of reaching Cat 2 still before landfall as this storm is strengthening on approach. Heavy flooding rains will be a big issue especially from the landfall area south although the whole Texas coast will receive generous amounts. Tornados are possible as well while storm surge could reach 5 feet in some areas. While Hanna is landfalling in an area with more cattle than people, life threats are real. Hanna should dissipate rather quickly after landfall and Mexico will see heavy flash flooding rains in it's mountainous areas upon Hanna's demise.

Gonzalo has been fighting an uphill battle for quite a while now and is no longer a threat to reach hurricane status, much less stay a tropical storm. The 5 day cone doesn't even exist for Gonzalo as all the models are in consensus agreement that Gonzalo will fall victim to the graveyard that is the Eastern Caribbean Sunday due to sinking air (subsidence), proximity to the South American coastline, and low humidity aka dry air. He has literally ran out the string on the moisture trail. However, before that happens, Gonzalo will dump copious amounts of rain on the southern Windwards. TS warnings are still up for Grenada and Tobago.

Gonzalo was the vanguard of the Cape Verde season storms which has obviously started early this year and paved the way for more dangerous things to come. One of them might be the newly anointedÂ92L.ÂÂ

92L at this point, is given a 60% chance to develop in the next 5 days. Early track models show no continuity as they show an impact somewhere along the eastern island chain, nowhere specific yet. Of course it's far too early to pinpoint impact sites. It's far too early to pinpoint intensity as well. The early models show a mid grade TS in 4-5 days. If the dust clears and wind shear remains low, we could have a hurricane on our doorstep in a week.Â

With this pickup in activity, and the pandemic still raging, it's more important than ever to be prepared and vigilant. Don't wait to prepare right before a storm strikes as you will be subjected to a shortness in supplies and long lines which are frustrating not to mention lack of social distancing and mask use.

Dave



Virus-free. www.avg.com

Friday, July 24, 2020 08:57AM PDT - Gonzalo
Gonzalo is still 'just' a tropical storm, and it looks pretty disorganized now. See the satellite image above, which I moved a bit to the south to see the storm better. As hinted at yesterday, right now it doesn't look like Gonzalo will reach hurricane strength. This doesn't mean that it is not a dangerous storm. It will still produce a lot of rainfall over the southern Windward Islands, which could lead to flash floods and worse. Rain, not the wind, will be Gonzalo's main threat!

The forecast track has changed as well. It is more to the north again and west ("earlier"). Right now the center is expected to move over the northern part of Grenada on Saturday night, with tropical storm winds arriving in the afternoon. However, don't pay too much attention to the exact path, since the rain will be the main threat it is going to affect a much larger area than just Grenada.

Lastly, a tropical wave just came off the African Coast, and while still early in the 'Cape Verde' season, the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 30% (low) change to develop into something. Right now it doesn't look like it is going to bend north before reaching the islands, so we'll have to keep an eye on it. Oh, and yes, we have Tropical Storm Hanna as well in the Gulf of Mexico, this one is expected to make landfall in about 30 hours just south of Corpus Christi, also with this storm, rain is the main threat... Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Thursday, July 23, 2020 08:55AM PDT - Gonzalo
Gonzalo is still tropical storm. There is a lot of uncertainty if it will further strengthen into hurricane or not. Sea surface temperatures are plenty warm for Gonzalo to strengthen and there is not much wind shear ahead. However, Gonzalo will encounter some low humidity. The advisories note that since this is a small storm it is more sensitive to adverse conditions and can fall apart more easily. Indeed, some models see no further strengthening (even weakening) of Gonzalo, while other models expect Gonzalo to become a hurricane. Right now the official forecast has Gonzalo top out as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds.

Gonzalo is going a bit more south than earlier forecasted. That is good news for Barbados, it should stay about 100 miles to the south. The center is now expected to move just to the south of Grenada Sunday AM. Hurricane watches have been posted for Barbados and St.Vincent and the Grenadines and I expect Grenada to follow, as well as Trinidad and Tobago. Stay tuned! Use the tools to see how the storm might affect you. -Gert

Wednesday, July 22, 2020 07:46AM EDT - Gonzalo and Hanna?

Good morning!

I hope everyone is staying safe and well during the turbulence of 2020.

Quick note on 91L. It is on the move into the GOM and is expected to become a TS before a beeline landfall along the south to mid Texas coast unless wind patterns change. Regardless of it's status, named or not, it will bring copious amounts of rain, sporadic power outages, and probable flooding in some areas. Other areas say Louisiana should watch as well in case those wind pattern shifts.Â

On toÂthe star for the next few days heading for a date with the Southern Windward Islands as a definite TS and a good potential Cat 1 hurricane: I present! Gonzalo. The island nations of St. Lucia, Grenada, Barbados, and Trinidad Tobago on the south side of the storm all must prepare for a potential Cat 1 hurricane although most models forecast a strong tropical storm. Well, there's not much difference between a 65 mph TS with higher gusts to hurricane strength and a 75 mph with higher gusts bare minimum Cat 1 hurricane. Flooding rains, wind damage, crop damage especially on Grenada, power outages, and potential loss of life are all aspects of these systems. It must be noted that small systems such as TD#7/Gonzalo are subject to quicker, more dramatic changes in intensity so nothing is certain at this time.

Currently, approx. 10.1N, 43.0W moving along just a hair north of west at about 12mph, TD#7 aka Gonzalo shortly consolidated his position and banding features have formed with outflow in all quadrants, quite possibly winning the best TD Look Award since 2004 not named yet by the NHC. Way uglier less organized storms have been named, most along the east coast. If named today, Gonzalo would be the earliest 7th named storm on record beating it by 1 day. I cannot fathom it would not be.

I would be remiss if I didn't warn that these are consensus model runs on it's trek however, there has been a slight shift northward in their latest runs so no matter where you are, all along the Lesser Antilles chain should be aware and prepared as it is still far out enough to pull a northward stunt. The issue if it does though is it will have to battle with more copious amounts of dust but a well formed system should be able to protect it's core from ingestion.This potential also takes the Eastern Caribbean graveyard out of the equation.

Behind soon to be anointed Gonzalo, the African continent has opened it's tropical wave bowling alley despite being ordered to quarantine. Alleys are opening every week and we are entering the ramp up in activity period. 3 Invests in 5 days is a portend of things to come. The Saharan Dust Layer aka SAL will only protect us so long as will wind shear, which has not been prevalent this year so far. Each waveÂfrom now until the end of October needs to be taken as a potential strike.

Be safe and prepared!

Dave


Tuesday, July 21, 2020 08:18AM EDT - Tropics and GOM

Good morning all,

I do not have much time this morning so will post more detail later.

90L: Moved into La and Texas with heavy, possibly flooding rains. No development possible.

Soon to be 91L: Lashing Cuba, the Keys and South Florida with heavy rains and gusty winds. Moving eventually into the GOM with moderate shear and very warm waters for which development is probable and once in the Gulf, has no escape. Depends on where the low closes off dictates where potential landfall is along the gulf coast. However, it looks like Hanna will eventually form and could be nasty. Air Force reconnaissance is scheduled for later today if necessary but I bet definitely tomorrow.

99L: Looks to make TS Gonzalo soon. Already impressive on visible satellite, currentÂtrack takes 99L through the lower Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean graveyard and the current models forecast it to die there as so many before have. However, at the moment, not forecast to become a hurricane even though shear is low and the dust shield is down. Main reason as it's very low around 9 degrees N, 40 degrees W and has to escape the ITCZ which it will.

No matter what, it's starting to ramp up in all basins, even the East Pacific so preparation and knowledge are the keys. This is standard procedure for any hurricane season but then again this is 2020! I doubt this hurricane season will be standard. Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Thursday, July 9, 2020 14:23PM PDT - Storm Number 6!
Yikes, it is only July, and here we already have storm number Six, named Fay! This is the system that travelled from the Gulf of Mexico over land and reoganized over the Atlantic, just off North Carolina. It is probably going to be a short-lived storm, moving closely along the US East Coast, possibly going over New York City. Luckily it is not expected to strengthen much, although it is currently over the warm Gulf Stream, when it goes more north Fay will be over cooler waters. Again, this storm will form no threat to us in the Caribbean.

Since it is the month of July, the below image from the climatology-section shows the storm origins (and how strong they became) for the month of July. I count about a quarter of all July storms since 1944 forming east of the Caribbean in the Atlantic, our 'danger zone', though only 5% of those became major hurricanes. Still, we have to start looking east... -Gert

- - - July Storm Origins - - -

Monday, July 6, 2020 08:59AM PDT - Edouard
Last night Tropical Depression Five was upgraded to Tropical Storm Edouard. It is currently well south of Newfoundland, yes, quite up north indeed. The storm is moving fast over the open Atlantic, and is no threat to land. It might cause some unsettling weather in Ireland or the UK later.

There are two other areas of interest, one near Florida (Gulf side) which we don't have to worry about in the Caribbean, however, it may reappear over water on the 'other side' in the Atlantic and become something. We also have a tropical wave approaching the islands down south. Although currently not forecast to develop into a depression or worth, it will bring some high winds and heavy downpours when it approaches Barbados and the islands beyond. See the satellite image above for its current location. -Gert

Saturday, July 4, 2020 10:23AM EDT - TD#5

Quick update: Advisories to be issued on TD#5 as of 11am NHC advisory.

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Saturday, July 4, 2020 10:16AM EDT - Edouard maybe already?

Good morning and Happy July 4th America!

A happy 4th it will be weatherwise for the east coast of America as well concerningÂInvest 97L but maybe not so much for Bermuda. Trekking ENE about 15 mph, 97L has about a 60% chance of development into a depression at least, with earlyÂmodel guidance suggesting a peak mid tropical storm of 55-60 mph in about 3 days.The next name on the list will be Edouard in an already early active Atlantic season. Bermuda should start receiving impacts of thunderstorms, high surf, gusty winds, and rip currents tomorrow evening while east coast impacts will be minimal in the way of higher surf and increased rip currents. Then, he will move off to visit Europe to help cool off their heat wave.

The eastern Pacific has picked up as it usually does before the Atlantic and there are several potential areas to watch but none appear to be a threatÂland wise at the moment. A note in the far Western Pacific not reallyÂtropical even for Japan but deadly and wow, what a deluge. Credit to Sayaka Mori in Japan several hours ago: 381 mm of rain fell within 6 hours translating into 2.5 inches an hour aka 15 inches in southern Kyushu. TheÂKuma River has flooded, houses have collapsed and sadly, there is a death toll.

Meanwhile, the GOM and the Caribbean, both east and west, are pretty quiet. Most of the Caribbean, especially the Eastern, could use some rain. The USVI's and BVI's are dry as a bone pretty much. Why? Our two main protectors from storm formation, wind shear and that seemingly omnipresent, drying out the atmosphere Saharan Dust, have been very active so far but as we well know, these will falter as we approach the peak of season, mid August to mid October. With SST's very warm already (the fuel of the storm), wind shear falling, the Saharan Dust level diminishing, and the absence of El Nino in the Pacific, it still looks like an active season ahead. It also looks like some decent rains will start to arrive soon and so will the double edged sword.

Preparation and knowledge is the key to protection of life and property. The property can be replaced. You cannot. Remember, it only takes one. Not 15.

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Monday, June 22, 2020 18:39PM PDT - Dust and TD#4
We have a major Saharan dust event underway on the islands and it is the Talk of the Town. Check out the pictures posted by the special hurricane correspondents on the right. Also see the 'true-color' satellite image below, clearly showing dust over the islands. And it looks like more is on the way later this week! A good source to see images of the Saharan Air Layer is at http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/ (the below image is cropped from the GOES-16 Natural Color one).

Dust is actually good for suppressing hurricanes. It is still a bit early for the Atlantic Cape Verde storms, so hopefully we get some more dust later. Although, dust is not good for people with allergies and/or respiratory illnesses, as Barabar on St.Maarten noted... Nevertheless, Tropical Depression Four just formed in the Atlantic, albeit well north of it, off Cape Cod. It might become a named storm, but it will be of no threat to (is)land (incl. Bermuda). -Gert

Dust over the Islands - 6/22/2020 [tropic.ssec.wisc.edu]

Saturday, June 6, 2020 16:59PM EDT - Cristobal plus

Good afternoon all,

It's highly unusual to find a cone of uncertainty that stretchesÂfrom the GOM all the way well into Canada but that is what TS Cristobals is and continues to be. Heck, the 5 day cone shows Cristobal still a depression over the UP of Michigan! Again highly unlikely but wow how this guy will continue to ramble on well after landfall probably as a very strong system through Canada and the Great Lakes.

First things first though, the Atlantic and the Caribbean. East to NE of Bermuda, a low pressure system could form but it's chances are slim at this time. If it does, it would most likely move NW or WNW which could make things interesting for the NE or Canadian Maritimes. If it does reach named storm status, it would become Dolly. Will Dolly meet up with Cristobal if this scenario plays out? That would be a very interestingÂsituation. However, remote for now.

The rest of the Atlantic and Caribbean are pretty quiet. A few tropical waves are marching across the MDR or Main Development Region of the Atlantic but we don't usually look for much development in this area at this time of year. SST's are running warmer than usual and wind shear is moderate but Saharan Dust is ever present, stifling any early season attempt. The only wave that has any attention is the one that just splashed down off the African coast but that one's main hindrance is it's proximity to the ITCZ or Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Until it escapes to over 10 degrees north, it has minimal chance of doing anything.

Cristobal is poised to become the second land falling named storm of this very early active season. TS Arthur did not make an actual landfall as it's COC or center of circulation did not touch the Outer Banks, coming within about 20 miles of. Cristobal will be dangerous whether a high end tropical storm or a Cat 1 hurricane, which is entirely possible. It has some work to do wants to achieve that rare event in June. It has to seal off the western side from dry air intrusion, slow down a bit in order to consolidate it COC and bring it's windfieldÂin closer to the core. Cristobal is massive so rapid strengthening is remote. Even when the pressures drop, it is so big the wind field might not have time to catch up.Â

That said, Cristobal has a chance for strengthening overnight before land fallÂon Sunday. Whether it does or not, storm surge, rip currents, heavy rain and flooding along with tornadoes are on his menu. It is not a polite menu either. This is not Sunday Brunch. Please evacuate if told too. The effects of this system will be felt over a very large area and will continue to be for days to come.

Preparation and common sense are keys to survival and the aftermath.

Dave



Virus-free. www.avg.com

Tuesday, June 2, 2020 09:43AM PDT - Cristobal
Tropical Depression 3 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cristobal. This is the first time ever (=since 1851) that 3 named storms have formed this early. 2016 was close, with the third storm forming June 5, and in 2012 the third storm formed on June 17. Don't be fooled, this is a very dangerous storm. Because it is hardly moving it will cause prolonged periods of torrential rainfall in Mexico and Central America. There already have been deaths reported due to flooding in Guatemala and El Salvador. It doesn't look like it will start moving out of the area until Friday... I have shifted the satellite image above a bit more to the west to get a better view at this storm. -Gert

Monday, June 1, 2020 21:07PM EDT - TD#3/Cristobal

Good evening all,

I trust everyone is doing well, staying safe and healthy while riding out the pandemic that envelopes the world in different degrees and stages. Please be safe, stay aware, and prepare. BTW, looting and violence will not bring or realize justice. Looting a 50" TV will not assist getting justice; that's just taking greedy advantage of the situation. Back to the weather.

Gert, Thank you for 25 years of silver anniversary for providing a forum in which to enrich, enlighten, inform, sometimes chastise (on my part), and educate the Caribbean and others about the Atlantic Hurricane Season and it's contents which includes, watches, warnings, perils, preparation, devastation, relief and recovery, etc.... Thank you also for allowing me to participate on this site since 1997 I believe. I enjoy the weather while sharing what I know and observe with others with the hope it helps someone and saves lives. Yes, Hurricanes Irma, Maria, and Dorian in the last three years have been eye openers to say the least. Having personally went through Irma and Maria within 12 days tests your will, your mind, your resources, your beliefs and trust. Just saying, I love the weather but Mother Nature, please take all the next 20 years worth of storms OTS aka make them fish storms to talk about, not remember.Â

So, June 1st, the first official day of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season starts today but tropical activity, while minor, has been prolific and surprising already in the month of May. TS Arthur, makes a not so surprising appearance along the SE coast brushing the Outer Banks while TS Bertha, who would have never been recognized before the 1970's, rapidly sloshed into South Carolina. TS Bertha was basically a Sunday visit to the buffet: One hour from designation as a TS to landfall. Second shortest on record by 15 minutes.Â

Now, we have TD#3. Soon to be TS Cristobal, it will linger and lurk for the next few days around the Bay of Campeche. Heavy rains and flooding will be Central Americas issue no matter what. Future tracks are uncertain. West into Mexico. Or, Saturday a TS in the GOMEX.Then where? Beyond uncertain. So, anywhere along the GOM and Florida need to pay attention, heed, and prepare. This one has no zeroed in on point yet.

Bottom line prepare no matter what. La Nino is non existent. The Atlantic, unless wind shear and Saharan Dust are seriously prevalent, will be highly active. I have been saying way before TWC and others: It only takes one to land on your island or house. I find it funny they are now using that statement. However, it is true no matter who says it.Â

TS Cristobal which is almost inevitable, has some place to land with evil intentions. Central America's issues with this system will be morphed into a GOM problem of where, what as and when. Landfall is a certainty once in the GOM as there is no real exit lane unless any of them dipped south and exited the Straits of Florida into the Atlantic which I believe has ever happened yet.Â

Have a safe and healthy evening. Seems like it's time to strap on the tropical seat belt!

Dave
Â

Monday, June 1, 2020 2:11AM EDT - Silver Anniversary
Update 5PM AST: Tropical depression 3 formed right where we would expect it from the plot below, down in the Bay of Campeche, off Mexco. It is expected to become a tropical storm soon (Cristobal). It is going to move pretty slowly, so the rain will be the biggest problem. The advisories indicate up to 20 inch locally!

A huge milestone, this is the 25th year for this website! I started it back in 1996, when I realized that the mainstream news coverage of hurricanes in the Caribbean is largely absent or too generalized to be worth anything. The 'internet' was very different back then, blogging was not a word and Google didn't even exist yet. We were using the Altavista search engine and Mosaic browsers... A lot has changed, and news is easier to get nowadays, including first hand reports through Facebook. But for now, this website still fills a need.

A special thanks to Dave McDermott who helps me with writing hopefully easy to understand updates. Thanks to all the special hurricane correspondents on the islands. Without all these volunteers this website would be pretty boring! Some have been with us for a very long time. And of course, since there are considerable costs associated with this high traffic website, thank you all who have donated money, esp. the ones who have given year after year! Thank you all!

Another thing that came through recently and which I have been trying to get for many, many years is the ownership of the domain name stormcaribe.com, since many people like to add an 'e' to stormcarib. No one was doing something useful with that domain, but somehow different registrars kept renewing it, and I was unable to steal it when the registration expired. At one point is was even a porn site! When you type in stormcaribe.com by mistake you will automatically be redirected to stormcarib.com.

OK, today marks the first day of hurricane season. We have already had two storms. Pretty unusual, it only happened 6 times before in the last 170 years (see my earlier post). Although it seems to become more common, since half of the cases happened in the last 10 years. Hmm, I wonder what the cause of this could be... Many of the forecasts predict an above normal season. Pretty soon Colorado State will come out with their updated one. A lot of it will depend on the ENSO status. El Nino is good (suppresses hurricanes), La Nina is bad. The latest ENSO forecast from 2 weeks ago predicts mostly neutral conditions through August (65% chance, with 25% chance of La Nina and 10% El Nino). In September chances for an La Nina are going up a bit (50% neutral, 40% La Nina, 10% El Nino). So not really optimal and this is probably the main reason for the above average hurricane activity season forecasts. At the time of the last forecast by Colorado State La Nina chances were a bit lower (45% neutral, 35% La Nina, 20% El Nino), so I suspect that the number of storms they forecast will go up a bit. Below the names of the storms and pronunciation used this season:

Name           Pronunciation    Name            Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Arthur         AR-thur          Laura           LOOR-ruh
Bertha         BUR-thuh         Marco           MAR-koe
Cristobal      krees-TOH-bahl   Nana            NA-na
Dolly          DAH-lee          Omar            OH-mar
Edouard        ed-DWARD         Paulette        pawl-LET
Fay            fay              Rene            re-NAY
Gonzalo        gohn-SAH-loh     Sally           SAL-ee
Hanna          HAN-uh           Teddy           TEHD-ee
Isaias         ees-ah-EE-ahs    Vicky           VIH-kee
Josephine      JOH-seh-feen     Wilfred         WILL-fred
Kyle           KY-ull

Finally, I have updated the climatology section. Last time I did it was in 2011 so it was about time. A lot more work than I thought, since my scripts weren't really working anymore and I wanted to make nicer maps. I analyzed almost 1900 storm tracks from 1951-2019 (see image on the right). The climatology section contains over 600 webpages and over 4500 images. There are different sections: maps of storms that passed by your island, peak of the season for your island, five year analyses (are we seeing more storms lately?), hurricane capital of the Caribbean, and more. Also included is an analyses of where storms form for each month. Below is the map for June. In the last 76 years (since 1944) we had 57 storms form in June, 75% of them became 'just' tropical storms, no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes. More importantly, for us in the Caribbean it looks pretty good. Hope it holds true!

OK, this turned out to be a much longer post than I anticipated, so much new news :-). Everybody good luck this season! Hopefully things will go back to more or less normal regarding COVID-19 soon, with tourists coming back to the islands! Stay safe and don't do stupid things! And if you are able to, consider making a donation to the website, so that it can continue for many years to come! -Gert

Storm Origins for June

Wednesday, May 27, 2020 11:55AM PDT - Bertha
And surprise, surprise, here is storm number 2, Bertha! It formed this morning just before making landfall in South Carolina. Since it is over land already Bertha will not be long lived, although it will dump a lot of rain...

I am working on updating the climatology section (a lot more work than I expected, maybe that's why I hadn't updated it in the last 10 years or so...), so I have all the data to figure out how uncommon it is for two storms to form before the official start of the season. It is actually not that uncommon for storms to form before June 1, this is the 33rd time since 1851 (about every 5 years). However, this is only the 6th time that 2 storms have formed. The other years were 1887, 1908, 1951, 2012 and 2016. See the table below, showing date of formation, storm id, name, maximum wind (mph) and category. In 1908 two hurricanes formed before June 1 and in 2016 we did have a hurricane in January! In 1981 there were actually three systems before the start of the season, but the first 2 were tropical depressions (which I didn't count, I only include 'named' storms that formed between January 1 and May 31, so I didn't include storms that formed in December and persisted in January either). Five more days... -Gert

date      stormid  name   wnd cat
1887/5/15 AL011887 UNNAMED 69 TS
1887/5/17 AL021887 UNNAMED 58 TS

1908/3/6  AL011908 UNNAMED 98 H2
1908/5/24 AL021908 UNNAMED 75 H1

1951/1/2  AL011951 UNNAMED 63 TS
1951/5/16 AL021951 ABLE    92 H1

2012/5/19 AL012012 ALBERTO 58 TS
2012/5/25 AL022012 BERYL   69 TS

2016/1/7  AL012016 ALEX    86 H1
2016/5/27 AL022016 BONNIE  46 TS

2020/5/16 AL012020 ARTHUR  60 TS
2020/5/27 AL022020 BERTHA  50 TS

Saturday, May 23, 2020 20:46PM EDT - A PSA & Season Approach

Good evening,

I trust and hope all is well and safe with all of you. The last 10-12 weeks have been life altering to most, mind boggling to some, a nuisance to many and eye openingÂto all whether you believe or not. Use common sense and follow guidelines, while they may be a nuisance and inconvenient, they do protect and save lives. The more vigilant we are now, the quicker the return to a near sense of normalcy although I believe the old normal will be relegated.

PSA. This is a weather site and we all know many of us have gone through many weather events personally, myself included especially 1995 and 2017. However, this afternoon, while weather related, was unexpected and a lesson for all.Â

I now split my time working between Florida and the US Virgin Islands, my former home for 30.5 years. Rip currents are no stranger to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, especially the northern facing coasts. However, beaches are not prevalent on that side in the VI while more numerous in PR however, deaths and accidents due to these rip currentsÂare few and far between there. Florida coasts however are a far different story.

Readers Digest version: Today, while standing 20 feet farther into the ocean than my girlfriend Melody, say 40 feet into the water, enjoying the surf, sun and just being outside and in the 77 degree water, I said to her: "hey lets walk over to that sandbar."Â Low tide at 3 pm, the sandbar was a mere 75-100 feet away. She smiled and nodded. I watched her turn to walk that way. A wave broke over my head and then quickly another. When I came up out of those, MelodyÂwas 200 feetÂaway. I said a few curse words and then another wave broke over me. I came up and noticed her even farther away. I realized wow, I was in a rip current. Best guess was 6 mph. That's 1 mile per 10 minutes. I immediately started to swim parallel to the beach. Many waves broke over me for what seemed endless and holding breath in between those waves was a challenge as I was in the breaker zone but then I touched a sandbar, stepped up and a few steps later broke freeÂof the current. Standing upright and seeing my girl Melody and the rest of the people was a relieving sight. Note: The lifeguard was attending another emergency north of me so it wasn't his fault he didn't see me swept out. After recounting the events with Melody, we returned to the water, more aware and lesson learned. My point to all here is, yes they exist, no we don't think about them that much in the Caribbean but when warned, heed. They are potential sneaky killers. I was lucky. I also learned a lesson. Yes it was by chance I stepped in ones path with no idea it was there but the lesson is learned. Awareness of your surroundings and knowledge of what to do in case the unexpected happens, as in this case, can mean the difference. Tonight, upon reflection, it hits home to both of us much harder. What if? But, positive is how I live so moving along and not dwelling. But wow.Â

Now to the future season. El Nino is going to be almost non existent. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic waters SST (sea surface temperatures) are above average. Wind shear, one of our best friends during hurricane season, looks to be on the down low. Saharan Dust, another mitigating factor, will always be present but will not be the almighty savior it has been over the preceding years. This season looms to be very active. Where and when are variables as are the weather conditions at that precise time of formation and trek. Our mission is to be empowered with knowledge, experience and to be prepared.Â

Eight days from now we will have the official start of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. TS Arthur has already been a premature nuisance and a few of the computer models have suggested some activity in the Western Caribbean and GOM in the next few weeks. This weekend, here in Fl which has been in a drought of all sorts, a tropical wave is expected to lift up from the south and provide anywhere from 1/2 inch to 8 inches over most of the peninsula. Drought buster in some areas while a drought wimp surely in others. Main day will be Memorial Day. We shall see.Â

Stay safe and well. Get and be prepared. Live each day as if tomorrow might not come. It's a tough world right now but with a positive attitude, awareness and perseverence, we will all overcome the obstacles in our collective way.Â

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Thursday, May 21, 2020 12:16PM PDT - NOAA predicts busy hurricane season
Some more hurricane news... NOAA's Climate Prediction Center just came out with their forecast. They say that there is a 60% chance that it will be an above-normal season (30% near-normal and 10% below normal). They are forecasting 13-19 named storms (12 is normal), 6-10 hurricanes (6 is normal) of which 3-6 will be Category 3 or higher (3 is normal). Factors driving this is the absence of El Nino conditions, above normal sea surface temperatures, reduced vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. They will update their forecast in August, just before the peak. On June 4 Colorado State will issue their updated forecast. Back in April they predicted 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, so also an above normal season. Read more on the NOAA website. -Gert

Wednesday, May 20, 2020 13:32PM PDT - Amphan and stronger storms
Two pieces of hurricane news..., Cyclone Amphan made landfall in West Bengal, India, close to the Bangladesh border. Sustained winds were 100 mph, making it equivalent to a Category 2 "Atlantic" hurricane. One major problem is the flooding, because of the low-lying river deltas in this region... Another problem is that people are reluctant to go to emergency shelters because of COVID-19. This storm was once a "Category 5" storm, and underwent extremely rapid intensification: over 36 hours winds increased by 110 mph, from 50 to 160 mph!

That brings me to my second topic, a paper was just published in PNAS by NOAA scientist, noting that climate change ("global warming") is indeed causing stronger storms, esp. in the Atlantic. See also this article in the Washington Post. This is a big deal since storm force increases exponentially (not linearly) with windspeed. The little sidebar on the right shows that there is a big difference in storm force between the different category hurricanes, even though windspeeds differ only by about 15-25 mph. In the WP news article, meteorologist Elsner is quoted as: "Hurricane destruction in the United States, in terms of physical damage costs, has historically increased by 10 percent for every 5 mph increase in wind speed".

The PNAS study finds that the chances of a storm becoming Category 3 or higher is increasing about 8 percent per decade. Also, not only are storms stronger, and due to higher seawater temperature, wetter, they also seem to intensify much more quickly, like Amphan did, and as we have recently seen in the Caribbean, like Maria. So, unfortunately it looks like we will see more 'big ones' in the future... More the reason to be well prepared... -Gert

Sunday, May 17, 2020 10:52AM PDT - First storm
Hurricane season hasn't even officially started yet and we already have the first storm of the season. Yesterday tropical depression One formed off the east coast of Florida and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Arthur a bit later that day. It is of no worries to us in the Caribbean, but it may pass close to North Carolina tomorrow. It is not expected to become a hurricane.

This is the 6th year in a row that a tropical storm has formed before the official start of hurricane season (June 1) according to Brian McNoldy. He also shows that there is indeed a trend that storms form earlier. However, no need (yet?) to change the official start of hurricane season, because it is still pretty seldom that a hurricane forms outside hurricane season (see the First Storm of the Season page, hmmm, I really have to update that with more recent data). -Gert

Wednesday, May 13, 2020 07:40AM EDT - It's that time again!

Good morning!

Back in the saddle for another installment of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I hope everyone is getting prepared for this season, forecast to be an unusually active period. On top of the Covid-19 virus which the world is rightly focused on, we cannot forget what possibilities loom ahead the next 6 months. Plus, it might start early with a subtropical system, given a high (70%) chance of forming somewhere around or north of the Bahamas this weekend. If it does develop, which would be more sub tropical than tropical characteristic wise with a cold core, then it's name would be Arthur. Note that these systems were not even named until about 2002 by the NHC or even tracked by the NHC until the 70's.

The major contributing ingredient for this possible development will not come from the south east or the east but rather from the far west initially. Florida, in a good deal of drought, could use a rainmaking system like this, but alas it looks like the Bahamas will be the beneficiary although South Florida could get some of these effects. Gusty winds, maybe some flooding and heavy rain is probable in the Bahamas as this system will move quickly towards the NE and away from the east coast of the US.

The official start of the season in the Atlantic is June 1 while the East Pacific season starts on May 15th. Currently, a soon to be typhoon named Vongfong, is about to cause wind damage and flooding in the central and northern islands of the Phillipines while potential development, brewing for over a week, is possible in the Bay of Bengal. As Gert shared, some of these names are eerily familiar. Bertha is one I know well as she visitedÂthe Virgin Islands a mere 10 months after Cat 3 Marilyn's destructive nighttime assault. While Bertha was only a Cat 1 at the time, the winds and rain only compounded the misery of rebuilding after Marilyn.Â

May is National Mental Health Awareness month and we all are dealing with the stress and fear of Covid -19 both mentally, physically and financially. Please prepare now if possible for this upcoming hurricane season as no one needs the worry of a double whammy of hurricanes and the virus. If your prepared, then your mental health anyway will be in a much better position to deal with the event if manifested.

Take care, be safe and well, and prepare.

Dave

Tuesday, May 12, 2020 15:11PM PDT - Almost time...
It is kind of hard to focus on with COVID-19, but the official start of Atlantic Hurricane Season is only a few weeks away... I just made my website ready for the 2020 season, which always involves moving around lots of files, updating webpages and scripts, etc., etc... Hopefully all will still work... Now is a good time for you as well to start planning for the next season (if you are allowed to go to the store...).

The new names are posted above. The names repeat every six years. Remarkable storm names are retired, but since 2014 was a quiet season, none were taken of the list. Although some names, like Arthur, Berth, Dolly and Edouard sound eerily familiar from previous seasons... -Gert

Monday, April 27, 2020 12:00PM PDT - Look, no shadow!
Not hurricane related, but since most of us are sheltering in place something fun to observe! Chris Bolt (Hogan) on Grenada told me that it is that time of the year that the sun is directly above us, so it will not cast a shadow! The date and time (not exactly at noon) that it will happen depends on the island. For some it has already passed, but it should still be pretty close. Hogan made a list that Jurgen on Barbados posted yesterday.

The no shadow effect should make for some interesting pictures. See for example the Pringles can below with no shadow made by Hogan. Jurgen posted some on the Barbados page as well. Since we are all spending a lot of time at home now, maybe a fun thing to do is make a creative picture and post it (or send to me if you are not a correspondent)! Make sure that your object or whatever is on a level surface.

If your island is not listed you can follow Hogan's directions below to find the exact date/time for you:
Use the Heavens Above website: Select your Location
Click on 'Sun' and look at Maximum Altitude, then change the date until you see the figure in the altitude column get as close to 90 as possible.
This is also a good website if you want to see the International Space Station go over; on the main page click on Satellites - ISS. Lots of other useful info too.

Enjoy, looking forward to see some creative photos! -Gert

No Shadow!

Thursday, April 2, 2020 11:50AM PDT - Above average season expected
First of all, hope you are all doing well with regards to the COVID-19 global crisis. Social (or better physical) distancing is the keyword these days. This is of extreme importance in order to flatten the curve so that hospitals don't get overwhelmed. It might seem silly if you don't know anyone who has the virus, but models really show that it works. Don't do it just for yourself, but think of others. You could make other people sick just by going out and about.
In any case, just 2 more months before Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts. Today the first of their quantitative hurricane forecasts was published online by Klotzback et al. from Colorado State University. It seems that we are in for an above average season... They expect a total of 16 named storms (12.1 is normal), 8 hurricanes (6.4 is normal) and 4 major hurricanes (2.7 is normal). The chance of at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (a big area) is 58%. Normal is 42%. The state of ENSO (El Nino vs. La Nina) is always important for us. El Nino conditions usually means a slow season, and La Nina will be more busy. Now it looks like ENSO conditions won't be either, or maybe a weak La Nina. The big driver this year seems to be the higher than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.
Some recent analog years (years with similar ocean and atmospheric conditions) are 1996 and 2008. Looking through the archive I remember for 1996 Bertha and Hortense and for 2008 Gustav, Hanna, Ike and Paloma. This might of course be totally different from your perspective... In any case, as I always say, one hurricane in your backyard will spoil your whole season. Always try to be prepared as best as you can.... -Gert

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


GoBeach Vacations
- Your source for the best Caribbean vacation you've ever had! -
http://www.gobeach.com | info@gobeach.com

Back to top | home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive