Caribbean Hurricane Network
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Weather discussions by Gert & Dave during the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The homepage with the links to local reports from the islands, latest satellite image, current weather outlook can be found here.
But as always, it only takes one big one to spoil your season! Be prepared as best as you can. Check your hurricane shutters and see what you can improve about your house's structure to better withstand high winds and torrential rains... -Gert
June 1 update: Maybe some clarification needed... The researchers did not estimate the number of deaths at about 4600. The 95% confidence interval is 793-8498 casualties. 4,645 (a much reported number) is the average of those two extremes. Other studies have estimated the death toll at about 1,000. Read more in this Washington Post article.
This one sneaked in just before the official start of the hurricane season. This doesn't mean a more active season. But there seems to be a trend of an earlier start of the season over the years...
Incidentally NOAA's Climate Prediction Center came out with their hurricane forecast. They predict a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season. Not really sure how they came to this conclusion because they also write that sea surface temperatures are expected to be near-normal and that a weak El Nino might be forming. This would result in a near-normal or below-normal season. But they also note that "atmospheric and oceanic conditions" in general are more conducive to more and stronger hurricanes forming. I guess they mean climate change, but are not allowed to call it that... See the NOAA website for more.
Tuesday, May 22, 2018 21:10PM EDT
- It's time for Invest 90L (Again)
Comparison TSR and CSU (Colorado State) TSR CSU tropical storm 12 14 hurricanes 6 7 major hurricanes 2 3 ACE index 84 130
The probability of at least one major hurricane tracking somewhere through the Caribbean is 52% (42% is normal). They also publish a spreadsheet with landfall probabilities for the Caribbean and Central America. For example, for the USVI the probability that at least one major hurricane will pass within 100 miles is 16%, for Anguilla (which I guess includes St.Maarten/St.Martin, St.Barths) it is 11%.
The slightly above forecast is based on two major factors, the state of El Nino/La Nina (ENSO) and sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Atlantic. Right now it looks like that the ENSO conditions during the peak of the season will be neutral or maybe slightly positive. An El Nino (positive ENSO) will normally reduce activity, a La Nina the opposite. There is also some uncertainty regarding SST in the Atlantic. Right now the far North Atlantic is cooler than normal, which is a good thing, but the western tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal. The balance of forecasted neutral or slightly positive ENSO conditions and above normal SST results in the slightly above normal forecast of hurricane activity. More technical details on the Colorado State website, or read the blog post by Brian McNoldy in the Washington Post. Regardless what the forecast is, be prepared! Now would be a good time. We for sure don't want another Irma or Maria! -Gert
- - - New GOES-East imagery, focused on N.E. Caribbean (large island is Puerto Rico) - - -
My website will be moved to 2 new servers. They will be faster and have more memory. Hopefully we will never need this extra power though, because that means another Irma/Maria! Since the operating system will change, as well as newer versions of PHP, MySQL, etc., there might be some glitches. I will try to fix them asap, but I would not be surprised if there will be some downtime. Thanks again to my excellent web host pair Networks! They have been very supportive of stormCARIB. -Gert
Monday, January 1, 2018 19:37PM EST
Good evening and Happy New Year! While 2017 was devastating to many Caribbean islands who still struggle to recover from the 2017 hurricane seasons events, 2018 will start off on the same note but positiveness resounds, albeit tentatively. Lets pray and hope 2018 starts another period of many years of relative peace, both worldwide and weather wise! Dave Sent from my iPhone
Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (email@example.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.
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