Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: Hurricane Rafael
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (23:10 UTC, 19 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

TCUAT3
 
Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
600 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...CENTER OF RAFAEL ON THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...
...6 PM EST POSITION UPDATE...

The Havana International Airport recently reported a wind gust of 
67 mph...108 km/h.

The next update will be provided in the intermediate advisory at 7 
PM EST...0000 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 83.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ENE OF BAHIA HONDA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

Wednesday, November 6, 2024 12:33PM EST - Late season Rafael

Good morning,

Thank you Gert for covering for me while the flu is covering me and my wife as well.

Hurricane Rafael, a relatively rare storm not only this late in the season but also in intensity took its sweet time percolating to the south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands now putting on quite the show and a dangerous one at that. Having given Jamaica a glancing blow as a TS, then powering into the Caymans as a strengthening hurricane, his eyes are now set on western Cuba and the Isle of Youth, which during various preceding years has been a hurricane magnet itself like Bermuda.

Currently located approx. 120 miles SSE of Havana moving at a moderate 14mph, Rafael is approaching and expected to attain Cat 3 major status before landfall in western Cuba. Hurricane hunters found a double eyewall which is interesting yet a bit scary at 960mb and dropping. At the moment, the only silver lining is this system is not yet completely symmetrical like a buzzsaw and the hurricane force winds stretch out only 15 miles in diameter meaning a small core of the most damaging winds. Storm surge, flash flooding, coastal erosion will occur. The other real damaging threat from Rafael to Cuba is damaging or destroying an already compromised electrical infrastructure which has disrupted Cuba's island wide electrical grid leaving many without power numerous times.

While over Cuba and pulling away headed into the SE Gulf of Mexico, TS force winds are expected to reach the Florida Keys where Key West to the middle keys are under a TS warning since TS winds are stretching out 115 miles at this point, yet not in all quadrants. Once in the Gulf, Rafael has a limited opportunity to restrengthen, possibly back up to Cat 2 status as a threat to oil rigs (not good), the fishes and some shipping. Track wise, at first, Louisiana was in the bullseye but now, expected to turn more to the west then NW. Rapid weakening is expected after the next 48-72 hours which means Rafael may longer be a named system, only a remnant upon landfall, probably around Texas but too soon to tell.

Elsewhere, there's a mess right now to the NE of the northern Antilles which has limited potential down the road as it migrates towards the west. NHC says a 30% chance after 7 days. It will be tough for the next few though as wind shear is above moderate but the sledding might get easier once past north of PR and the VI's on the way to the southern Bahamas and Turks/Caicos. Might be a sneaky system so eyes wide open, not shut as vigilance is still in vogue for the next few weeks.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Monday, November 4, 2024 15:04PM PST - Rafael

Invest 97L is now Tropical Storm Rafael, the 17th of the season. It will reach Jamaica tonight and be near Cayman late Tuesday. Tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica, and a hurricane warning for Cayman. Tropical storm watches have also been issued for western Cuba, western Key West and Dry Tortugas.

Rafael is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours, and might strengthen to a Category 2 the next day. When Rafael passes Cayman it is expected to be 'just' a Category 1 storm. However, since conditions are pretty favorable for intensification (above normal sea surface temperature, low wind shear and high moisture), I would not be surprised it the storm will be stronger than forecasted. When Rafael is in the Gulf, it will encounter more adverse conditions, so I don't expect a major (Category 3+) to hit the US.

Rain will be widespread however. Esp. for Hispaniola, with the other system passing to the north, and saturating the grounds, this could be a one-two punch. Jamaica is also expected to get locally up to 9" (220mm) of rain, which can cause flooding and mud slides in the hilly terrain. Stay safe! -Gert

Saturday, November 2, 2024 15:45PM PDT - Rain, rain, rain

A wave is passing through the northern islands as we speak. It is not expected to develop into something, but it will produce a lot of rain over the next couple of days. Esp. the Dominican Republic and Haiti should pay attention, since they usually don't cope too well with a lot of rain.

Elsewhere we have Tropical Storm Patty. It is close to the western Azores, so far from us. It is also moving towards the east, away from us. Patty is aiming for Europe, similar to Kirk a while ago. But by that time it should have weakened to a depression, still a lot of rain though...

Finally, last but for sure not least, in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is the next invest, 97L. The NHC gives it a pretty high chance of developing into something by tomorrow. It might even become a late season hurricane since sea water temperatures are still well above normal. The Hurricane Hunters are going to investigate Sunday. Models have it loop north over Jamaica and then eastward over Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. So people on Jamaica and the Cayman's should definitely pay close attention to this one! See the link for the 'spaghetti plots' above. Stay safe! -Gert

Saturday, October 19, 2024 19:17PM EDT - Surprise Surprise Surprise

Good evening,

Dual surprises have occurred although one was somewhat expected and the other was really not expected. This goes to show, the Earth and climate are not always in sync with computer models and will do what they want regardless of what is predicted. It also goes to show, never trust a CV seeded system no matter what time of hurricane season.

Tiny Hurricane Oscar, who probably will win the Oscar for most surprising late season appearance at the 2024 ceremonies, rose from basically a non entity, fighting dry air all the way across the MDR from Africa, passing by the Northern Lesser Antilles, still as a non entity, then morphing rapidly from a wave to a hurricane in less than 12 hours having finally escaped the clutches of late season Saharan Dust.

Tiny as in really tiny for a hurricane as far as they eye is concerned at the moment, measuring only approx. 5 miles in diameter but packing 85 mph winds in that small core. Hurricane Hunters scrambled this morning to put an initial mission together to investigate Oscars rapid strengthening phase which saw Oscar rise from a tropical depression to hurricane status in just under 3 hours which is the fastest intensification ever recorded.

A direct and now impactful, already occurring threat to the low lying Turks and Caicos, Oscar has the potential to be a devastating storm with storm surge, wind impacts, plus the obvious factor of little warning to those residents for preparations. Normally, you sometimes have days to prepare.. These residents had less than a few hours! The northeastern portion of Cuba, already facing several and continuing nationwide blackouts, have hurricane watches up. Unless Oscar does a right turn Clyde moment when anticipated, Oscar will visit that section of Cuba before eventually turning abruptly N then NE.

Oscar could turn into a major down the road. Virtually none of the models or humans foresaw hurricane formation occurring, not to mention the RI factor. Originally Oscar was forecast to MAYBE make a small name for himself as a possible mid grade TS turning WSW into the Caribbean. Now, a hurricane and, while still with a WSW component, forecast to do an about face the other direction. The southeastern Bahamas are also under a hurricane warning. Bermuda might see some watches with a visit from Oscar later on as well.

TS Nadine also finally formed but plowed into Belize as a 60 mph system before attaining hurricane status. This transformation was reasonably expected, however, she was on the rise quickly as well. Good thing land got in the way. Bad thing is the heavy rains and flooding which will occur while she rapidly dissipates, maybe temporarily, over Central America. Possible she re-emerges into the Pacific and regenerates into a hurricane. Time will tell.

Off to the east, any threat coming off the African coast is being decapitated by wind shear so for now, the MDR is finally quiet.

Stay safe and prepared. November still might be interesting.

Dave.

P.S. I see Gert beat me to the post LOL so if I repeat something he shared, not a bad thing.

Saturday, October 19, 2024 14:04PM PDT - Two named storms

It didn't look like either of the waves would get their act together before making landfall or else, but now we have Nadine and Oscar. Nadine is the system we were watching in the western Caribbean. It has now made landfall close to Belize City earlier this morning as a tropical storm. Main hazard is the rainfall associated with this system, not only in Belize but also the Yucatan Peninsula and other places in Mexico as it moves further inland.

The second storm has surprise, surprise, just been upgraded to a hurricane. Although it is a tiny one. Hurricane warnings have been issued for the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. The situation in the TCI will actually deteriorate fast. Main hazards are not only the wind and rainfall, but also the storm surge. It will move towards Cuba, which will probably not help with the power outages over there... People in the Bahamas, take note of the track, even though it seems to be moving west, nicely south of you, don't be fooled. It is expected to make a sharp turn north at some point. Check out the Closest Point of Approach tool. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

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