Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (14:45 UTC, 55 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

96L Invest:

Thursday, August 21, 2014 14:31PM EDT - 96L close

Good afternoon,

Just a quick update.

Hurricane Hunters found a closed surface level circulation but not the requisite organized thunderstorm activity so the NHC is holding off on upgrading to a depression.

Dave

Thursday, August 21, 2014 09:48AM EDT - 96L Uncertainty

Good morning!

While there are many uncertainties concerning 96L, one thing is certain: due to it's elongated presence, the copious distribution of largesse (means gifts) to the majority of the Windward and Leeward Islands in the form of beneficial rains will occur, hopefully more than Bertha.

96L is currently being steered by strong high pressure spanning the expanse of the central Atlantic and is moving generally west to west northwest at about 12 mph. Traveling much slower than Bertha those beneficial rains could also be flood threats so I see flash flood advisories going up as early as tonight. In addition gusty winds and cloud to ground lightning will occur especially during accompanying thunderstorms.

Not forecast to intensify rapidly there are a few factors to consider that favor slow intensification as it approaches. Wind shear has dropped to a low moderate level, SST's are now in a positive temperature range for fueling the systems engine and dry air has diminished as the air has moistened considerably around it. We could see it reach depression status tonight or tomorrow and maybe even a Cristobal. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to visit 96L this afternoon and we will have a better handle on 96L once the data starts to stream back.

After this system passes it remains to be seen where it could venture. The one scenario most models favor is a trek across Hispaniola and being turned northwards by a trough digging down weakening the highs influence.

Another scenario, not impossible but improbable, is it continues moving more westerly due to being a weak system and head towards the western Caribbean.

The last one is one that will all depend on timing: If the trough doesn't pick 96L up, then we potentially could have a Florida landfall as a hurricane as those very warm Gulfstream waters and weak wind shear currents will allow 96L to fester rapidly while the high resumes its influence and steers it into Florida.

Let's hope for the first scenario to play out.

More tonight.

Dave

Sunday, August 17, 2014 20:58PM EDT - Hmmmm

Good evening,

Despite the draconian grip of copious amounts of Saharan Dust across the hurricane bowling alley of the Atlantic, we have a tropical wave with a 1011 mb low located at 11N 40W showing signs of defiance with a juicy flareup of showers and thunderstorms.

Facing more hostility the next few days as it treks mainly west at 10 mph, in the form of marginal SST's (sea surface temperatures) aka fuel, a dry stable and not very moist atmosphere and a bit of wind shear, this wave definitely has some issues to contend with but if it survives the next two days, it's outlook may become more pronounced and we may have a Cristobal. Why?

SST's (see above) will be warmer so the fuel for the fledgling engine will be hot and available while wind shear remains marginal. Pesky but fractured, the Saharan Dust level will still do its best inhibiting dance but will not be as forceful.

Behind this low is several more waves ready to exit stage left the African coast and, as we enter the "hot zone time period" of tropical development, our awareness should be heightened. The time for blobbette formation is at hand.

Dave 

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located north of the Virgin Islands remains disorganized.
Interaction of this system with Hispaniola could limit development
through tonight. However, environmental conditions are expected to
be more conducive for development when the disturbance moves near or
over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is likely to form over the weekend or by early
next week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands today, and over Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Interests in those
islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Nevis [Aug 22 11:15]
- St.Thomas [Aug 22 9:40]
- Anguilla [Aug 22 9:31]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Aug 22 7:29]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 22 7:18]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Aug 21 23:28]
- St.Croix [Aug 21 21:52]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 21 20:47]
- Montserrat [Aug 21 19:59]
- Barbados [Aug 21 14:04]
- Bonaire [Aug 21 10:28]
- Grenada [Aug 21 6:58]
- Antigua [Aug 20 17:21]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Aug 20 9:43]
- Culebra (PR) [Aug 20 7:29]
- St.Lucia [Aug 19 21:18]
- Dominica [Aug 19 18:01]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 3 23:14]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 3 12:58]
- Martinique [Aug 2 13:25]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 2 13:09]
- St.John [Aug 2 10:22]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 1 16:05]
- Aruba [Jul 30 9:10]
- Curaçao [Jul 29 20:02]
- Jamaica [Jul 21 16:35]
- Florida Keys [Jul 3 8:22]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



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This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

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Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert