Caribbean Hurricane Network

- Updates from the Islands -

| home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Arlene | Bret | Cindy | Don | Emily | Franklin | Gert | Harvey | Irma | Jose | Katia | Lee | Maria | Nate | Ophelia | Philippe | Rina | Sean | Tammy | Vince | Whitney |

Active Tropical Systems: Post-tropical Cyclone Gert, Tropical Storm Harvey
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (13:45 UTC, 31 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Gert tools:
Harvey tools:
92L Invest:

Thursday, August 17, 2017 15:57PM PDT - Harvey
Today 91L became Tropical Storm Harvey. The system is currently about 250 miles east of Barbados. Tropical storm winds are expected within 12 hours from the latest advisories, or about 5AM AST ('local time') tomorrow morning. Luckily it is not expected that Harvey will strengthen too much in the next day or so. Harvey is expected to move over Barbados and then cross the island chain near or over St.Vincent... So this storm is pretty far south! It should move about 125 miles north of Aruba/Curacao though, well outside the range of tropical storm winds. I don't think there will be major problems as long as it keeps moving at its current forward speed of 18mph. Then it won't have too much time to locally dump great amounts of rain... Please use the tools above (like the closest point of approach calculator) to assess your risk. -Gert

Tuesday, August 15, 2017 15:25PM EDT - Happy Birthday Gert!

I forgot to mention which I am rectifying now, that today is Gert's Birthday!! No, not the storm, but the founder and moderator of this site so please join me in wishing him a Happy Birthday!!

Dave

Tuesday, August 15, 2017 15:14PM EDT - Triplets

Good afternoon,

With Hurricane Gert spinning his way to a date with the open Atlantic, the pied pipers have started to open up the playground that we know as the MDR (Main Development Region) with 91L and 92L splashing their way west while 93L is a mere formality just waiting for an Atlantic splashdown.

Dry air intrusion and increasing wind shear will initiate the demise of Hurricane Gert Wednesday night into Thursday but not before his efforts to reach minimal Cat 2 status might be rewarded; he just needs to do it sooner than later. The former 99L has a history of fighting, staggering and winning his way across the MDR eventually becoming a hurricane when he was all but written off for dead. So, I doubt he's ready to give up now. The main threats from Gert will continue to be high surf, rip currents and threats to shipping.

91L and 92L are playing follow the leader with 92L about 700 miles behind 91L. Both have potential but are not in any hurry to realize that potential. For the moment, I believe 92L has the better chance of development but if 91L were to do it first, 92L would probably falter as it is close enough to be affected by the outflow wind shear from 91L. Time will tell. Down the road we should see these bring squally weather to the mid and northeastern Caribbean Islands at minimum.

Soon to be designated 93L has grabbed a lot of attention already from the NHC and longer range computer models and could very well become a threat to the islands, possibly even the mainland US. Once again, a slower developing system will tend to a more westerly track while a quicker one usually will take the recurve track aka fish storm.

Pretty much, they all have to be monitored from now on.

Dave

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located near Barbados.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 750 miles east-northeast of the Leeward
Islands continues to show signs of organization.  While it would
take only a slight increase in organization for a tropical
depression to form later today or tonight, upper-level winds are
becoming less favorable for development.  The low is expected to
move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days,
and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Shower activity has increased during the last 24 hours in
association with a tropical wave located over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable for some development early next week while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Beven
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

- - - Do you live in the Caribbean? - - -
Join our team of special local hurricane correspondents.


   stormCARIB is brought to you by GoBeach Vacations   
- Your Accommodation Specialist for the Caribbean -


stormCARIB is hosted
at and supported by
pairNetworks

Support stormCARIB
-- Donations needed --

Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Barbados [Aug 18 10:13]
- Grenada [Aug 18 8:55]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Aug 18 8:24]
- Dominica [Aug 18 7:56]
- Bonaire [Aug 18 7:37]
- St.Lucia [Aug 18 5:46]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Aug 18 1:55]
- St.Croix [Aug 17 23:50]
- Antigua [Aug 17 19:36]
- Nevis [Aug 17 19:08]
- Anguilla [Aug 17 11:28]
- Montserrat [Aug 16 18:37]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Aug 13 17:29]
- Haiti [Aug 13 14:22]
- St.John [Aug 8 17:42]
- Mexico (incl. Cozumel & Cancun) [Aug 8 14:48]
- Belize [Aug 8 13:34]
- St.Thomas [Aug 8 8:32]
- Margarita Is., Venezuela [Aug 3 16:15]
- Culebra (PR) [Aug 1 8:26]
- Curaçao [Jul 19 9:01]
- Cayman Islands [Jun 18 9:57]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Jun 14 16:45]
- Dominican Republic [May 1 20:30]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


GoBeach Vacations
- Your source for the best Caribbean vacation you've ever had! -
www.gobeach.com | info@gobeach.com

Back to top | home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive

Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert