2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
| Arthur | Bertha | Cristobal | Dolly | Edouard | Fay | Gonzalo | Hanna | Isaias | Josephine | Kyle | Laura | Marco | Nana | Omar | Paulette | Rene | Sally | Teddy | Vicky | Wilfred ||
Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (23:15 UTC, 57 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].
Tuesday, November 4, 2014 19:11PM EST
- Non Tropical Entity
Flooding a real possibility tonight if these cells hold together, especially for St. Croix in next few hours and St. Thomas/St. John and the BVIs closer to midnight. More to come very probable tomorrow and Puerto Rico, while taking the brunt earlier today, will probably take some backlash overnite and tomorrow as well. Stay safe my friends! WAPA may have a rough go with the abundance of lightning which is actually not very prevalent during the course of the year but when it does happen, it happens!
Wednesday, October 29, 2014 17:38PM PDT - Thank you for donating!
- I have just ended the donation drive. It was a bit longer than I wanted, but thank you all for donating! I am so happy to receive the support when I need it. Sorry, if I haven’t personally thanked you yet. I am again on a cruise, this time on my way to the Antarctic and the internet is just too slow to check or above all to respond to email. I did not even realize that we had Hanna out there! Thanks again! -Gert
Monday, October 27, 2014 18:50PM EDT
Good evening from Florida,
TS Hanna sure was a surprise when not a whole day had passed by after the NHC had given the system a 10% chance of development and voila! See, we are not as advanced as you think. Weather is an inexact science, has been and will continue to be.
TS Hanna is located on the Honduran Nicaraguan border and should diminish as rapidly as she formed by Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rains and flooding with mudslides will be the biggest problems in Nicaragua while Honduras is in the midst of a severe drought and could use all the rain it can get although not as fast and heavy as Hanna is going to deliver it.
Elsewhere the Atlantic Basin has a few weak waves trying to push westward and WNW and will bring rains over this week to the Eastern Caribbean. The primary culprit will be 95L, a few hundred miles off to the east of the Windward Islands. Most of the intensity models keep this below tropical storm strength and after passing through, upper level wind shear should prohibit it further thoughts at greatness. We could definitely use the rain. It does bring back thoughts of Gonzalo though.
Models are showing another possibility in a few weeks in the SW Caribbean but too early to put any emphasis on that. Here in Central Florida, the drying continues with low humidities, cloudless days, cool nights and just overall beautiful weather and this will continue for the next 5 days with a spit possible on Friday.
Saturday, October 18, 2014 07:21AM PDT - Waiting for news...
- With power out for most of Bermduda, we have to be a bit patient to hear some news. There is no need to panic if you have not heard from your family or friends, they are just unable to get in contact with you. Reuters reports that there is widespread damage, but no reports of fatalities or serious injuries yet. This was a strong hurricane, but with Bermuda's very strict building codes they can hopefully recover quickly. Read the latest updates from the hurricane correspondents as they come in here. Google News or Yahoo News are good places to find information as well -Gert
Wednesday, October 15, 2014 08:37AM PDT - Gonzalo
- October surprise or not? Most people in the northern leeward islands like St.Maarten/St.Martin, Anguilla and St.Barts, were expecting a tropical storm, instead they got a strong Category 1 hurricane. Unfortunately most people were not prepared for this, and apparently one man lost his life on St.Maarten. As far as I know, two more are missing (one on St.Martin and one in St.Barts). For more read the reports by the special hurricane correspondents on the islands as they come in.
Right now Gonzalo has strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds near 130mph! This makes it the strongest Atlantic hurricane in three years... Looking at the Closest Point of Approach-calculator the eye of the storm is expected to pass just to the left of Bermuda (55 miles) in about 2 days (Friday, 2:00PM AST). At that time it will have weakened just a bit, but is still expected to be a major hurricane with 120mph winds! Fay was a wake up call for Bermuda, this will be the real thing, esp. if the track shifts just a bit to the east.
For the people on the islands who want to see what hit them, there are some radar loops from Guadeloupe and San Juan showing the path of Gonzalo through the islands on Brian McNoldy's website. In any case, I wish I had some more positive news to tell, this shows again that tropical systems should not be underestimated, even if you expect 'just' a tropical storm. It is still a storm! Stay safe people on Bermuda! -Gert
Monday, October 13, 2014 14:12PM EDT
- Gonzalo update
I know they aren't saying it yet but I am: Gonzalo is a Cat 1 hurricane. Storm centered 17°32'N, 62°21'W, 30 miles ENE of Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis with a 20 nautical mile eye. Surface level winds at 73.6 mph and are expected to strengthen even with a little dry air around as wind shear is light and SST's are nicely warm. Flight level winds were clocked at a maximum of 82.9 mph as of the flight level time less than an hour ago.
More later. Have to reinforce the towel brigade!
Sunday, October 12, 2014 10:59AM EDT
Good morning all and hello to TS Gonzalo!
While the official word is not out yet, I would find it hard to believe that we do not have TS Gonzalo right now, currently located about 230 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
I believe at the 11 am advisory TS watches and warnings will be posted due to this systems close proximity to the islands, forecast track, and limited time available left before impact. Hurricane Hunters will investigate this afternoon but by then the time frame will be even more limited so the NHC should pull the trigger on this soon. Only reason it might not is conclusive evidence a low level circulation has not formed or closed off but common sense dictates otherwise and time is of the essence especially for the boating community.
A trough is expected to protect the mainland US from a strike from soon to be named Gonzalo but the Bahamas, Turks & Caicos, PR and the DR should be watching closely as hurricane status is a good possibility down the road Tuesday through the end of the week. Bermuda, already and currently dealing with rapidly passing TS Fay, will probably be enlightened by Gonzalo as well chasing Fays skirt tails.
A flash flood watch has been issued for the northern islands and it remains to be seen just what will be on our doorstep designation wise tomorrow. Doesn't matter what it is designated though as heavy rains, angry seas, water spouts, flooding and "scattered" power outages are an almost definite.
Off to the east we also have another contender to an otherwise meager Atlantic tropical throne, 91L but it appears to have lost some of its luster for the time being.
More later as we get some conclusive information from the Hurricane Hunters. Me? Time to activate the towel brigade which has been well rested this year but is still battle tested.
Saturday, October 11, 2014 11:51AM PDT - Fay and more
- It has been awhile since I posted, a good thing! A tropical storm watch has been issued for Bermuda because of Fay. The Closest Point of Approach-tool says that the center will get as close as about 70 miles to the east of Bermuda, well within tropical storm force wind range. Also most of the advection is on the Bermuda side, so they will experience some stormy weather. But knowing Bermuda, they can absorb it easily!
There are also two invests out there. Number 90L could become Gonzalo in the next day or so and is expected to skirt just north or over the northern islands as soon as tomorrow. We definitely have to keep an eye on this one, since it might become a hurricane at some point. Regardless, heavy rains in store for the northern Leeward Islands. Use the tools above to see how the storms can affect you!
A final note, the donation drive is going ok, thanks for donating! Unfortunately I still need some more... I hope to end it next week! So please, if you haven't done so, please, donate. Stay safe...
... Older discussions >>
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image|
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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Nevis [Nov 24 17:01]
- Anguilla [Nov 24 16:07]
- St.Croix [Nov 23 22:40]
- Dominica [Nov 21 11:23]
- Barbados [Nov 21 10:43]
- Grenada [Nov 21 8:39]
- St.Kitts [Nov 20 8:26]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Nov 20 1:18]
- St.Thomas [Nov 12 9:14]
- Montserrat [Nov 8 17:37]
- St.Lucia [Nov 8 13:54]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Nov 8 11:56]
- Culebra (PR) [Nov 8 6:32]
- Puerto Rico [Oct 31 9:02]
- Dominican Republic [Oct 27 9:07]
- Bermuda [Oct 23 20:23]
- Belize [Oct 18 17:38]
- Antigua [Oct 16 7:04]
- St.Barts [Oct 14 19:33]
- Saba [Oct 14 15:23]
- Statia [Oct 14 13:43]
- St.John [Oct 14 6:50]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Oct 13 16:08]
- Curaçao [Oct 10 10:29]
- Bonaire [Oct 3 19:00]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 22 16:00]
- Martinique [Sep 20 18:39]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 24 9:55]
- Haiti [Aug 22 17:20]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 22 12:30]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 1 16:05]
- Aruba [Jul 30 9:10]
- Jamaica [Jul 21 16:35]
- Florida Keys [Jul 3 8:22]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide