Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Ana | Bill | Claudette | Danny | Erika | Fred | Grace | Henri | Ida | Joaquin | Kate | Larry | Mindy | Nicholas | Odette | Peter | Rose | Sam | Teresa | Victor | Wanda |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (20:15 UTC, 50 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Saturday, May 23, 2015 12:23PM PDT - New Season!
Hallo everybody! Can you believe it is only 9 days until Hurricane Season officially starts? This will be the 20th season that I have been doing this! Can you believe it!? Some of the hurricane correspondents have been doing this for all this time as well! Who knew :-). Remember, this is just a 'hobby' of mine, and I always hope to recoup my expenses through ads and donations. So, please, help out again if you can.

Hopefully this season will be just as quiet as last year, when we only had 8 named storms. And it might very well be, the early forecast by Klotzbach&Gray (see below) shows only 7 named storms. This because it could be an El Nino year again (although last year it fizzled out a bit). Even though we had an early storm (Ana), it doesn't mean that it will be a busy season (see also some statistical analyses I did 10 years back).

I just made the website ready for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. For this I always have to move a lot of files around, and hopefully I didn't break anything... Hopefully you are getting your early preparations in as well. It is never too late to start thinking about storm shutters, emergency supplies, batteries, etc... In any case, welcome again to the new season, hope it will be a boring one!

-Gert

Wednesday, May 13, 2015 18:39PM EDT - First wave

Good afternoon!

Well, TS Ana sure caused an early stir to the pre-2015 Atlantic Hurricane season along the middle East Coast with drenching rains, beach erosion, dangerous rip currents (all rip currents are dangerous, what a cliché) and an early warning the tropical storm season 2015 is upon us.

Now, the climate is quiet in this hemisphere once again with copious amounts of Saharan Dust choking the moisture out of the atmosphere, strangling many landscapes and drying cisterns (plus wallets because it cost a lot of money to fill them back up with water) all across the Eastern Caribbean. The SAL stretches across to the west coast of Africa in various densities but, a moisture pod is about to exit the African coast. A 1006 mb low is about to enter the far eastern Atlantic.

The Eumetsat satellite featuring the African continent shows this low leaving land just above the ITCZ which means, for the most part, interaction and non tropical formation. Not only because of the timing is so early in the season, but the interaction, coupled with the dry Saharan Dust and cooler sea surface temperatures, will keep its possibilities very limited.

We here in the VI, BVI and down island all the way to Grenada are suffering a dearth of rain. Dry season started late this year and is continuing into a normally wetter period of May. Our islands are browning. Not good!

Be prepared!

Dave 


Monday, May 4, 2015 08:10AM EDT - Ana?

Good morning!!

It has been quite a while since my last post, for obvious reasons, and this one is a bit early as far as talking about a possible named storm 27 days before the official start of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

A disorganized low over Cuba will meander it's way across the Straits of Florida and into the Bahamas over the next few days and possibly stall out east of the Carolinas due to weak steering currents in the upper atmosphere. These same weak steering currents, in combination with unusually warm Atlantic coast waters for this time of year and its slow movement in the first place could enhance possible tropical development up to weak TS status. It could also develop into a hybrid system with some tropical and non tropical characteristics combined. Then again, if it doesn't close off the circulation, it will remain a potent low.

Will it become the first named storm of the season, TS Ana? Good possibility. They will name it even if it is a hybrid system if the low closes off. Major effects of this system in all scenarios will be high wave action and subsequent beach erosion, street flooding in South Florida and the Bahamas cases, dangerous conditions for shipping and fisherman, and deadly rip currents all along the coast.

Where will it go towards the end of the week? Will it get picked up by the jet stream and a front carries it away across the Atlantic towards Europe? Or not get picked up and wander west into the middle east coast states? Early season storms historically tend to hug closer to the coast so no surprise if it goes west.

Preparation saves lives. Property can be replaced. You can't.

Dave

Thursday, April 9, 2015 14:41PM PDT - Quiet season ahead!?
It is that time of the year again for the traditional forecast of the upcoming hurricane season by Klotzbach&Gray at Colorado State University. Some good news, it is supposed to be a quiet season. They predict only 7 named storms (normal is 12) of which 3 will become a hurricane (6.5 is normal), one of those will grow into a major hurricane (Category 3 and up). The main reason for it is that it should be an El Niño year again and the relatively cold sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.

We were supposed to have an El Niño during last hurricane season as well, but it formed later and was weaker than expected, but we had still a relatively quiet season. This year most dynamical models are calling for a moderate to strong El Niño event from August to October, nicely during the traditional peak of hurricane season. Hopefully this all pans out, but as always, remember that even in a slow season, that one big hurricane could make landfall on your beautiful island! -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 1 JUNE 2015.  SPECIAL 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF A 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORMS DURING THE OFF-SEASON.

More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Anguilla [May 24 7:56]
- St.Thomas [May 22 8:52]
- Nevis [May 19 18:11]
- Grenada [May 19 10:40]
- Dominican Republic [May 18 7:36]
- Haiti [May 17 20:50]
- Puerto Rico [May 14 10:28]
- Trinidad & Tobago [May 14 0:24]
- Dominica [May 12 13:52]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [May 9 19:21]
- Culebra (PR) [May 1 8:59]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert