Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Ana | Bill | Claudette | Danny | Erika | Fred | Grace | Henri | Ida | Joaquin | Kate | Larry | Mindy | Nicholas | Odette | Peter | Rose | Sam | Teresa | Victor | Wanda |

Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Fred
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (13:15 UTC, 57 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Fred tools:
91L Invest:

Saturday, September 5, 2015 09:19AM EDT - Resurrection of Fred? 91L

Good morning,

The wandering nomad and survivalist we know as still TS Fred is due to be downgraded soon due to very hostile wind shear, recurve to the NE, rejuvenate from depression or even remnant low status, and re emerge as a TS again, all in the span of 5 days after which he could be impacting the Azores. Fred remains only a threat to shipping interests but his longevity is impressive given the Atlantic's hostile environment.

91L. Given a very high chance of development by the NHC, 91L could very soon become a TD or even jump to TS status as TS Grace. This system looks pretty good on recent satellite loop imagery and is moving to the west more rapidly than its predecessors at 13 knots or 14.96 mph. The longer this system stays disorganized or weak, the more westerly trek it will take. TS Fred is still exhibiting some influence and until he fully exits and recurves, he will still exert some detrimental influence on 91L. That should be occurring soon.

So, with moderate wind shear and some favorable SSTs ahead, there is no reason to that 91L will be TS Grace in the very near future. Most models continue her trek to the W and WNW as a TS and of course, being shredded by our protective shield of Caribbean wind shear as she approaches the islands; much like her previous contenders Danny and Erika. 

However, the caveat is always there: computer models have a very poor analysis of tropical systems that are weak and or disorganized. Without a defined COC, their analysis is subject to a widespread error margin. 

Time will tell. Hopefully, whatever it is as an entity, if and when it reaches the islands, will bring us the rains we were promised from Danny and Erika and left bereft instead.

Dave

Sunday, August 30, 2015 09:56AM EDT - Ex-Erika, Fred and then some!

Good morning!

Prayers and thoughts to those who live in Dominica as the TS Erika pummeled the island with a foot of rain in some areas, including the capital city of Roseau and the city of Portsmouth. I reserve my comments on the government there who did not issue watches or warnings to the populace as they expected the center to be 100 miles to their north but still, it's better to be safe than sorry. In this case, it was deadly.

Meanwhile after the remnants of Erika dropped copious amounts of rain on the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and portions of Cuba, she still retains the possibility of rising like a phoenix and re-emerging from the tropical cyclone dirt pile as a tropical depression in the coming day or two as the system now plows into the Bahamas and South Florida. After traversing the Dominican Republic. whose mountains wreaked havoc on her circulation forcing her capitulation as a weirdly and historically disorganized tropical system who followed no computer model or human forecasts, Ex-Erika is likely to wipe out the drought or at least significantly alleviate it in South Florida; something she forgot to do here in the Virgin Islands. Flooding is likely due to the torrential downpours all at once but the sand and limestone structure of Florida's soil allows for that flooding to quickly diminish but the damage potential is there nevertheless. There is also the small possibility of a trek west of the peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico itself. She hasn't listened to anyone in the first place, why now? We will see. Be prepared regardless.

TS Fred. Possibly Hurricane Fred. Where? SE of the Cape Verde Islands. The potential for hitting the Caribbean is miniscule due to the steering currents in place but after seeing Danny and Erika's polka around this area this week, one begins to wonder. Most likely trek is over the Cape Verde Islands as a strong TS or even a Cat 1 hurricane moving WNW and then flattening out on a more westerly trek. Basically a "fish storm" after leaving the Cape Verdes for at least 3-4 days.

Has a hurricane ever made a direct on the Cape Verde Islands, oh so close to the African Coast? I've seen this question asked on a few other sites. The answer is no since recordkeeping began in 1851. Have they been brushed by any hurricanes? Yes several times. 1947 (Ft. Lauderdale hurricane), 1948, 1957 and most recently a close call with Hurricane Jeanne in 1998 according to historical records. No damage or injuries were ever recorded by these flybys.

A tropical wave is affecting the northern islands at the moment but all the rain seems to be avoiding the land masses this morning while another wave is off to the east of Barbados and has a few concentrated storm close together but nothing significant.

Have a good yet safe Sunday!

Dave






Saturday, August 29, 2015 11:24AM PDT - Bye bye Erika
Not sad at all to say goodbye to Erika! Although the remnants can still produce inches of rainfall over Cuba, Turks&Caicos, the Bahamas and Florida. Very sad to hear about the devastation on Dominica though. The death toll stands at 20 people now, with many missing as well. I have had contact with one of my hurricane correspondents, and hopefully she can report later. It will be posted on the Dominica web page. You can donate to the Red Cross of Dominica through this website (I do not think this is a scam). I also found a fundraising site on Indiegogo, but I don't know those people so can not vouch for it. The Government of Dominica has also set up a Recovery and Reconstruction Fund. There is also ReliefWeb. Just to make it clear, the call for donations above is for running the website, etc., it does not go to Dominica storm relief (unless I receive a surplus in donations, since I don't want to make money running the Caribbean Hurricane Network).

As you might have noticed above there is another Invest, 99L that just rolled off the African coast. Looking at the model runs it will go nicely north, so should not be a threat to the islands! -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located more than a thousand miles southwest of the
Azores.

Satellite images and ship observations this morning indicate that a
tropical depression could be forming about 200 miles south of the
Cape Verde Islands. If this trend continues, advisories would be
initiated later today. Environmental conditions appear to be
favorable for additional development, at least for the next two or
three days, while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Sep 5 8:20]
- Antigua [Sep 5 7:34]
- Grenada [Sep 5 6:35]
- St.Thomas [Sep 4 17:50]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Sep 4 9:48]
- Guadeloupe [Sep 4 7:55]
- Nevis [Sep 4 6:46]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Sep 4 1:39]
- Dominica [Sep 3 18:33]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 2 23:13]
- Saba [Sep 1 7:45]
- Culebra (PR) [Sep 1 6:44]
- St.Lucia [Sep 1 6:10]
- Haiti [Aug 31 11:28]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 31 8:50]
- Jamaica [Aug 30 21:00]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 30 13:33]
- St.John [Aug 30 12:30]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Aug 30 6:58]
- Bahamas [Aug 29 23:11]
- Barbados [Aug 29 19:57]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 28 18:35]
- Montserrat [Aug 28 18:04]
- Anguilla [Aug 28 12:35]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 28 10:18]
- Statia [Aug 27 16:50]
- St.Kitts [Aug 27 10:47]
- Bonaire [Aug 22 16:46]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 15 21:45]
- Curaçao [Aug 4 9:23]
- General Update [Jun 16 19:53]
- Martinique [May 28 18:08]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



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The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert