Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alex | Bonnie | Colin | Danielle | Earl | Fiona | Gaston | Hermine | Ian | Julia | Karl | Lisa | Matthew | Nicole | Otto | Paula | Richard | Shary | Tobias | Virginie | Walter |

Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Depression Two
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (03:15 UTC, 36 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Two tools:

Friday, May 27, 2016 17:24PM EDT - Bonnie

Good afternoon,

A quick note, in between my flights, the hurricane hunters found a closure of the west side circulation and as a result, TS Bonnie has formed, the second named system of the Atlantic Hurricane season about 430 miles to the southeast of Charleston, SC. Bonnie is currently moving towards the coast and is expected to remain a moderate TS before running into land due to lower than helpful SST's, some dry air intrusion from the west and not much time left over water as she is steered west northwest to the northwest by a system to the north.

The biggest issue from Bonnie therefore will be heavy rain and flooding with some power losses expected. If Bonnie treks along the coast at forecast speeds then 2-4 inches with isolated areas of up to 6 inches will fall. If she slows down though, then it's easy to fathom up to 8 inches is some areas.

Have to run to catch my next flight but more details to come. Stay safe and all interests from SC, NC and even Virginia should pay attention to Bonnie.

Dave

Friday, May 27, 2016 09:59AM PDT - Second storm before June 1?
Could we have a second named storm before the season even starts on June 1? Yes, we might! We had Alex back in January, and now we have an area of disturbed weather above the Bahamas, Invest 91L. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 90% change that it will become a tropical depression. Looking at the spaghetti plots above, it is expected to make landfall on South Carolina. It won't have an impact on the Caribbean Islands.
On another note Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) updated their pre-season forecast. With El Niño gone and maybe an El Niña on the corner, they expect a more active season, about 30% above the long term average, and about 40% above the last ten year average. We'll see. Hope we are all ready for the season. I am not yet! Still have to make the website for this year, although I just at least updated the names for 2016. -Gert
PS. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released their forecast today as well. Read about it here. (Thanks Frank/NevisStorm).

Tuesday, April 26, 2016 15:40PM PDT - 2016 Season Forecast
A few weeks ago Klotzbach & Gray from Colorado State released there Atlantic Hurricane Forecast. With El Nino weakening it will be more active than last season, but they are still calling for an about average season since waters of the far North Atlantic are actually colder than normal. A total of 13 storms (incl. Alex from 3 months ago) are expected. Of these 6 will become a hurricane, and 2 major hurricanes. The probability of a major hurricane tracking somewhere into thee Caribbean is 40% (normal is 42%).
A sad side note is that just a few days after the forecast was released Dr. Bill Gray passed away at age 86 (see Klotzbach's tribute). He will be missed... -Gert

Friday, January 15, 2016 07:29AM EST - Surprise!

Good morning!

Happy New Year!

I hope everyone had a fun, somewhat relaxing and enjoyable holiday. While traditionally we don't start thinking about the upcoming tropical season for a few months, the new year brought us not only 2016 but the surprise birth of Hurricane Alex!

A cat 1 hurricane, Alex is starting to lose some intensity over 67 degree waters which, is a rarity itself in that Alex is a hurricane that formed in the North Atlantic in waters well below the minimum 80 degree threshold for the fuel for these storms. Hurricane Alex is noteworthy for several other reasons as well. While Alex is the first named storm of 2016, it's also the first named storm to form in the Atlantic in January since 1978 and the first January hurricane since 1938! 

The Azores, home to about 250,000 people now, are already experiencing the vanguard of Alex's attack. The central islands will take the brunt of the storm while the eastern islands should sustain lesser effects with heavy rains, flash flooding and a deadly storm surge all the way around. Current top winds are 75 mph with higher gusts and the wind speeds will be higher as they hit the higher altitude volcanic slopes. Forward speed is 24 mph and it is heading north with a turn to the NNW expected after it's passage.

Alex is expected to turn extra-tropical by late this afternoon as it moves over even colder waters and the temperature difference between the waters and the air robs it of energy but with this transition comes an expansion in the wind radii (wind field) so a weakening hurricane Alex will become a powerful extra-tropical storm menacing shipping lanes and eventually, a date with Greenland.

No correlation exists between how early storms form before the actual official start of the tropical season on June 1 and the amount of activity actually experienced during season but it does make for some interesting conversation and theories.

Dave

Wednesday, January 13, 2016 14:41PM PST - First storm of the season!
Are you ready? We are always ready I guess... but here is Alex, the first storm of the year, not season I guess! Luckily it is far away from us and won't be a threat to us either. It is expected to pass near the Azores as an extratropical storm. -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Two, located about 400 miles southeast of the
coast of South Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2016.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Nevis [May 27 15:03]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [May 27 12:17]
- Trinidad & Tobago [May 26 15:46]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [May 26 10:33]
- St.Thomas [May 17 8:14]
- Bonaire [May 11 15:23]
- Anguilla [May 5 13:46]
- Grenada [May 4 7:35]
- Culebra (PR) [May 1 6:40]
- Vieques (PR) [Apr 29 21:38]
- Puerto Rico [Apr 23 11:40]
- Antigua [Apr 21 9:55]
- Curaçao [Apr 20 15:06]
- Dominica [Apr 20 8:09]
- Saba [Apr 19 8:00]
- Barbados [Mar 10 9:05]
- St.Croix [Nov 30 22:47]
- Dominican Republic [Nov 8 18:13]
- Guadeloupe [Nov 6 12:02]
- St.Lucia [Nov 6 10:20]
- Aruba [Oct 26 10:05]
- Bahamas [Oct 24 18:11]
- Belize [Oct 22 17:18]
- Bermuda [Oct 6 7:02]
- Turks & Caicos [Oct 3 13:49]
- Haiti [Sep 21 20:30]
- Montserrat [Sep 11 20:38]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 2 23:13]
- Jamaica [Aug 30 21:00]
- St.John [Aug 30 12:30]
- Statia [Aug 27 16:50]
- St.Kitts [Aug 27 10:47]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 15 21:45]
- General Update [Jun 16 19:53]
- Martinique [May 28 18:08]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert