Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Ana | Bill | Claudette | Danny | Erika | Fred | Grace | Henri | Ida | Joaquin | Kate | Larry | Mindy | Nicholas | Odette | Peter | Rose | Sam | Teresa | Victor | Wanda |

Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Erika
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (08:45 UTC, 40 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Erika tools:

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Did you know that this all volunteer website depends on donations from visitors like you? Without these I would not have enough revenue to cover the expenses I incur by running the Caribbean Hurricane Network. So if you love this unique website featuring original content, and you don't want it to disappear, you can show your support by visiting the donations webpage. Any amount helps! Thank you so much! -Gert

I am always looking for more hurricane correspondents! See below.

Thursday, August 27, 2015 09:46AM PDT - Dominica
Although there were no tropical storm warnings or watches for Dominica because the center of the storm was supposed to pass about 100 miles to the north, the island is being greatly affected by Erika. I guess forecasters forgot that the brunt of the system was to the south of the center... Again, as often with a tropical system, the winds are not the biggest problem, but the rains associated with the system. So even though Dominica might not have had sustained tropical force winds (so a tropical storm warning was not warranted I guess), they did for sure experience tropical storm conditions! Maybe they should change the definition of a tropical storm warning/watch.

There are reports of widespread flooding (incl. the airport), landslides, and widespread power outages. Unfortunately two people are confirmed dead and as many as 5 people are missing. I am trying to get some news from my special hurricane correspondents on the island (posted on the Dominica page), but with no power it will be hard. For other news check out Google News Full Coverage. -Gert

Thursday, August 27, 2015 07:08AM EDT - Which Erika will show up today?

Good morning!

Dawn here in the US Virgin Islands and all is pretty quiet as TS Erika passes between Guadeloupe and Antigua at this time with maximum winds now up to 50 mph  with higher gusts based upon a Hurricane Hunter recon flight.

Overnight, Erika put on a new convective display, which is normal for tropical systems to do during the nighttime, diminishing thoughts she was done for as she looked like an ICU patient yesterday. This morning, she is bringing beneficial rains to the region which has been in severe drought although too much in a hurry in some places and flooding will be a problem if she slows down even more.

Forecast is for no real change in intensity the next few days although fluctuations will be apparent up, down or both. The track is still a bit wobbly though as Erika goes a bit north then a bit south but still pressing generally westward. Current track puts Erika going between the US Virgin islands of St. Thomas/St. John/Water Island and St. Croix late tonight still in the 50 mph intensity range. TS force winds extend out still over a hundred miles so things will start to ramp up late afternoon and early evening.

Here in USVI, all ports are subject to Condition Zulu which means all inbound and outbound traffic is prohibited. Shelters have been opened, more sandbags have been handed out, and non-essential government employees were given today off. Airports are open though until further notice as only some steady but gusty winds and scattered showers are occurring now.

Once Erika passes by tonight and Puerto Rico as well, things get interesting. Will stronger wind shear ahead relegate her to open wave status or will she be able to fend the shear off and become a serious threat to Florida, the Carolinas, and the Bahamas, pounding the Turks and Caicos along the way? Time will tell but if I was up there, I'd be preparing. Complacency is a bad thing.

A final thought this morning. That dry air and wind shear we have been complaining about all season that has contributed to the drought situation just might have been our savior from possible back to back hurricanes. 

Dave.

Wednesday, August 26, 2015 20:58PM PDT - Erika Closest Point of Approach
I always tell people not too focus too much on the track, but see below the closest point of approach for the center of the storm for several of the islands (I excluded the Bahamas, TCI and Hispaniola because it is too far out (=too uncertain)). Keep in mind that the brunt of the storm is to the south of the center. Check for yourself with the CPA calculator and overlay the map with the latest satellite image to get a better feeling of this tropical storm. Also, keep in mind that tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles, at the current speed that means you can feel those about 6 hours earlier...
Tortola: 3.7miles (Thursday, August 27 at 9:00PM AST)
Antigua: 6.9m (Thursday, August 27 at 7:54AM AST)
St.John: 8.1m (Thursday, August 27 at 9:36PM AST)
St.Eustatius: 13.9m (Thursday, August 27 at 1:36PM AST)
St.Barths: 15.9m (Thursday, August 27 at 1:54PM AST)
St.Thomas: 16.3m (Thursday, August 27 at 10:30PM AST)
St.Kitts: 16.8m (Thursday, August 27 at 12:12AM AST)
St.Maarten/St.Martin: 17.8m (Thursday, August 27 at 3:06PM AST)
Anguilla: 28.3m (Thursday, August 27 at 3:18PM AST)
San Juan, Puerto Rico: 38.8m (Friday, August 28 at 2:00AM AST)
St.Croix: 50.6m (Thursday, August 27 at 8:42PM AST)
Guadeloupe: 56.5m (Thursday, August 27 at 4:54AM AST)
Mayaguez, Puerto Rico: 83.9m (Friday, August 28 at 5:30AM AST)
Dominica: 99.9m (Thursday, August 27 at 2:30AM AST)
-Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erika, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Puerto Rico [Aug 28 4:40]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Aug 28 3:11]
- Bahamas [Aug 28 0:57]
- St.John [Aug 27 21:56]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Aug 27 21:45]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 27 21:30]
- Nevis [Aug 27 21:21]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Aug 27 20:36]
- St.Croix [Aug 27 20:01]
- St.Thomas [Aug 27 19:59]
- Antigua [Aug 27 19:10]
- Guadeloupe [Aug 27 17:28]
- Statia [Aug 27 16:50]
- Montserrat [Aug 27 14:41]
- St.Lucia [Aug 27 14:01]
- St.Kitts [Aug 27 10:47]
- Anguilla [Aug 27 9:16]
- Grenada [Aug 27 8:10]
- Dominica [Aug 27 5:45]
- Barbados [Aug 26 14:43]
- Culebra (PR) [Aug 25 13:10]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 23 20:45]
- Bonaire [Aug 22 16:46]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 15 21:45]
- Curaçao [Aug 4 9:23]
- Saba [Aug 2 14:43]
- General Update [Jun 16 19:53]
- Martinique [May 28 18:08]
- Dominican Republic [May 18 7:36]
- Haiti [May 17 20:50]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert