Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Arlene | Bret | Cindy | Don | Emily | Franklin | Gert | Harvey | Irma | Jose | Katia | Lee | Maria | Nate | Ophelia | Philippe | Rina | Sean | Tammy | Vince | Whitney |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (03:45 UTC, 29 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Thursday, April 20, 2017 18:57PM EDT - Arlene

Good evening!

I hope all has been well since the end of last hurricane season which seems a mere few months ago.

It's been a quick fall, winter, now spring and soon, it will be the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season on June 1st. However, an early season upstart, TS Arlene, has decided to jump start 2017 and realizes "early bird gets the worm attention".

Approx. 815 miles west of the Azores and moving quickly to the WNW at approx. 25 mph, TS Arlene is no threat to land and expected to dissipate tomorrow as it gets absorbed by another extra-tropical storm system.

It is noted by the NHC that TS Arlene is only the second TS storm to be observed during the satellite era in the month of April. It is also noted TS Arlene would have never been noticed by anyone but ship traffic if satellites did not exist.

Early, yes. Hurricane season looking less active than normal, yes. Chances of you getting a direct hit, small by statistical standards. However, only one strike could cause chaos, misery, loss of power, destruction, injuries and possible fatalities? YES. It may be early but it should be in the back of all of our minds that hurricane season is rapidly approaching and the time is now to be re-assessing disaster plans.

It's never too early as TS Arlene has demonstrated.

Dave

Wednesday, April 19, 2017 08:41AM PDT - First one?
It is officially not hurricane season yet, but far out in the Atlantic the first (sub)tropical depression of the season already developed. It is no threat to land (or island), and it is expected to be short lived and would probably not reach (sub)tropical storm status. So no Arlene yet.
I notice that not everything is working this year yet on the website, hope to be able to fix it soon! Stay safe. -Gert

Friday, April 7, 2017 10:05AM PDT - Below normal hurricane season forecasted
As a long time tradition the scientists at Colorado State have issued their Atlantic Hurricane Activity forecast. Philip Klotzbach and his team is calling for a slightly below average season. They expect 11 named storms (12 is normal), 4 hurricanes (6.5 is normal) of which 4 might become big ones (Cat-3+, 3.9 is normal).
The probability of at least one major hurricane traveling through the Caribbean is 34% (42% is normal). The main reasons for this is that the Atlantic is pretty cool at the moment due to a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, also, it looks like there might be weak El Nino conditions developing in the summer, which is not conducive to hurricane formation either.
Three Caribbean locations have an above 10% change that a major hurricane will track within 50 miles some time during hurricane season: The Bahamas (29%), Cuba (19%) and Mexico (13%). Not sure how they calculate this, but it looks like size/area is a factor too... (see link to complete spreadsheet here).
In any case, even if chances are small, there is still a chance! Only one big hurricane hitting your island will spoil your whole season! So, regardless, be ready! The best thing is to prepare now. Check that all your shutters are ready, have some supply of water, food, batteries and other emergency supplies. You all should know the drill by now. It is a lot easier to prepare for things now then just a few days before a storm might hit, when everyone else is scrambling at the grocery and home improvement stores. As you can see I am not ready yet, I hope to have the website '2017-ed' soon! -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2017. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [May 23 20:04]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [May 23 12:05]
- Nevis [May 20 15:33]
- Haiti [May 17 22:04]
- Trinidad & Tobago [May 16 21:31]
- Anguilla [May 9 20:24]
- Cayman Islands [May 6 11:25]
- Bonaire [May 5 22:34]
- Dominican Republic [May 1 20:30]
- Culebra (PR) [May 1 7:59]
- Margarita Is., Venezuela [May 1 6:43]
- Dominica [Apr 29 12:18]
- Antigua [Apr 12 14:30]
- Montserrat [Mar 30 20:29]
- Barbados [Feb 28 18:05]
- Grenada [Dec 9 13:41]
- St.Lucia [Dec 1 10:10]
- St.Croix [Nov 30 21:39]
- St.Thomas [Nov 21 12:44]
- Curaçao [Nov 16 22:56]
- St.John [Nov 1 8:50]
- Florida Keys [Oct 26 16:20]
- Bermuda [Oct 15 18:49]
- Bahamas [Oct 9 0:19]
- Jamaica [Oct 6 16:33]
- Cuba [Oct 6 10:03]
- St.Kitts [Oct 5 15:51]
- Turks & Caicos [Oct 5 7:27]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Oct 4 19:51]
- Aruba [Oct 2 19:54]
- Belize [Oct 2 8:15]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 30 22:39]
- Martinique [Sep 28 19:35]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 5 20:58]
- Guadeloupe [Sep 5 11:55]
- Saba [Sep 1 7:56]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert