Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Arlene | Bret | Cindy | Don | Emily | Franklin | Gert | Harvey | Irma | Jose | Katia | Lee | Maria | Nate | Ophelia | Philippe | Rina | Sean | Tammy | Vince | Whitney |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (15:45 UTC, 35 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Monday, November 6, 2017 12:57PM EST - Possibilities

Good afternoon,

I hope all is going as well as possibly can with the rebuild, recovery and restoration efforts in the NE Caribbean as we head into the last three weeks of official hurricane season. Progress is slow, greed among the airlines charging enormous dollars while restricting flights (a lot of people want to get away but can't even for a few days) is ridiculous (I can fly to Honolulu for $1251 but to fly to upstate NY it was $2441 from here in VI for the exact same dates!), and many landlords are worse, charging rent for inhospitable living quarters and threatening unlawful evictions. However, bright spots are showing progress being made in the form of power restoration, quality food products returning to shelves and gas/diesel in good supply. A ginormous thank you to the linemen and line women who have come from their own homes to way less than ideal conditions to assist with the power restoration as it is a humongous undertaking. The roads, well, it needs to stop raining for one thing and the road contractors need to have working equipment.

Ok, on to what to look forward to possibly in the next few weeks. Two of the current models, one fairly consistent and one usually out on Venus, predict possible tropical formation in the Western Caribbean with a Wrong Way Lennyesque track implication. As most of us know who have lived in the Caribbean for many years, Lenny formed on November 13th in 1999 and primarily went the exact opposite of the direction hurricanes traditionally travel. Backwards from west to east. Hence the Wrong way moniker. I remember it well as I had to spend my birthday under curfew. Hurricane Omar tried in Oct 2008, but only traveled from the SW to the NE, which is still rare because of it's southerly formation. Both of these systems impacted the NE Caribbean causing widespread damage and fatalities. So, something to watch out for as it's not over until it's over. As if to reinforce that, we now have TD#19, soon to be TS Rina.

Soon to be TS Rina is no threat to us here in the Caribbean while looking like she wants a date with Scotland, first brushing the north of Ireland at this point as a strong North Atlantic storm but with much less intensity than Hurricane Ophelia back on Oct 16th. Soon to be Rina is not likely to become a minimal hurricane before the cold waters of the Atlantic shut her down but in the season, nothing is impossible.

Keep vigilant!

Dave






Wednesday, October 25, 2017 21:54PM EDT - 93L and East

Good evening,

93L I will chat about first underneath my flashlight. While interacting with the land masses of Central America and the Western Caribbean, 93L does not stand a chance of further development other than it's flashy convection and disorganized activity. However, if it decides to travel a bit more east and get away from the land areas, then it has a chance to become something. What that may become is the big question. A TD, a TS, a hurricane per chance? Or a dud killed off by a strong cold front and wind shear basically relegating 93L to just that: a non formally named entity who has the potential though to dump copious amounts of rain on Cuba, maybe the Caymans, mid to south Florida and the Bahamas through Sunday. For these areas, we shall see soon what will become of 93L. Very warm SST's and moderate wind shear are the positives for development. Negatives are closeness to land, lack of spin, and an increasing severe wind shear threat from an early winter season cold front. In any event, rainfall along this track will be heavy and probably intense meaning 5-6 inches of rain in South Florida, Cuba and some Bahama Islands. Further up/down the road, it could intensify into an early season Nor'easter affecting the outer banks of the Carolinas and run up into New England as a powerful low pressure system which has managed to drop 30-40 millibars in pressure from Florida to NE. Your lucky up in NE if this verifies as 3-4 feet of snow would fall if temps were cold enough. As it is, 4-5 inches of rain are possible. Again, this is a few days out but very possible given the circumstances. Its good to keep an eye closely on these storms in the Western Gulf though as some bad systems have arisen from this area over the years including big hurricanes spinning up out of seeming nowhere. Be vigilant.

Off to our east we have an approaching tropical wave which, if it wasn't for fierce wind shear, we would probably be experiencing a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane approaching. Weak, discombobulated, elongated but nevertheless approaching inexorably slow, this tropical wave will dump decent rains where they do not need to be dumped this weekend. Behind this one, not much else is a threat. There is a small area of favorable wind shear just south of St. Croix which might enhance this waves rainfall a bit but that's about it.

Hope all are well and as good as can possibly be right now. Still, preparedness is a good thing and helping your neighbors, elderly friends and even a few strangers who are appreciative of your generosity and good will goes a long way to our regions recovery.

Good night, Dave

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Thomas [Nov 22 6:42]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Nov 20 23:17]
- Nevis [Nov 20 18:52]
- St.Croix [Nov 20 16:29]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Nov 20 2:54]
- Dominica [Nov 16 7:21]
- Barbados [Nov 15 17:01]
- Anguilla [Nov 11 7:25]
- Haiti [Nov 10 10:57]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Nov 6 12:08]
- Puerto Rico [Nov 2 23:30]
- Bonaire [Oct 31 6:56]
- Cayman Islands [Oct 25 15:40]
- St.Lucia [Oct 23 16:41]
- Antigua [Oct 21 5:47]
- Relief Efforts/Where to Donate [Oct 20 14:04]
- Grenada [Oct 19 11:21]
- St.John [Oct 5 16:44]
- Belize [Oct 4 8:58]
- Vieques (PR) [Oct 1 17:58]
- Montserrat [Oct 1 16:29]
- Culebra (PR) [Sep 30 17:13]
- Barbuda [Sep 23 23:15]
- Turks & Caicos [Sep 23 6:49]
- St.Kitts [Sep 21 22:13]
- Dominican Republic [Sep 21 17:41]
- General Update [Sep 21 9:56]
- Guadeloupe [Sep 20 9:17]
- Martinique [Sep 19 13:12]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Sep 18 10:38]
- Bahamas [Sep 14 22:15]
- St.Barts [Sep 14 12:26]
- Curaçao [Sep 12 22:12]
- Florida Keys [Sep 10 11:20]
- Jamaica [Sep 9 8:46]
- Statia [Sep 9 4:47]
- Saba [Sep 7 1:00]
- Bermuda [Sep 2 6:30]
- Margarita Is., Venezuela [Aug 18 12:25]
- Mexico (incl. Cozumel & Cancun) [Aug 8 14:48]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert