Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Andrea | Barry | Chantal | Dorian | Erin | Fernand | Gabrielle | Humberto | Ingrid | Jerry | Karen | Lorenzo | Melissa | Nestor | Olga | Pablo | Rebekah | Sebastien | Tanya | Van | Wendy |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (02:45 UTC, 54 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Sunday, December 8, 2013 09:34AM EST - Changes

Good morning all!

 Christmas winds arrived as historically advertised yesterday afternoon and now they are howling along. While the winds are a welcome respite from the summer humidity and heat, if you are on a boat in the open ocean, they are not your friend. Waves heights are averaging 8-10 feet with 10 second intervals and the Coast Guard already has received a sailing vessel in distress call 20 NM west of Saba. It will continue to be breezy to windy through the upcoming week. Rain will be sporadic except maybe Tuesday with mas more. There is running water everywhere still and the roads have turned into a "Whack-a Mole" game board with the size potholes we have!! St. Croix will receive additional rains though as they are closer to the trough moving west.

90L died quickly south of the Azores. I believe it made sub tropical storm status at one point and should have been named as peak winds were an estimated 50 mph according to satellite derived information. However, they are content to let this upside down 2013 hurricane season slip into anonymity with the only remarkable aspect of it being the total lack of forecasting expertise. The forecasting models and even humans need to take into account the effects and presence of the SAL Saharan Dust Level) and stability of the atmosphere.

Now, its on to the named winter storms which accuracy of forecasting is much better although not perfect. Weather is an inexact science and will continue to be for many, many years!

Happy Holidays!

Dave

Monday, November 18, 2013 15:52PM PST - Melissa and Haiyan
Here we have a late subtropical storm in the Atlantic, Melissa. It should not be a threat to any land, nor is it expected to become a hurricane.
On another note, the situation in the Philippines is very dire. I was just reading an article by Reuters where a spokeswoman from the United Nations said "The size, the quantity of people that have been affected by this, this is massive, between 10 and 12.9 million people have to be assisted to recover from this. This is absolutely huge. It's like taking the whole of Belgium and trying to assist." Also, apparently they have not been able to reach some of the smaller islands as of yet... It is a very sad situation. If you want to donate, the Red Cross is a good option.
Reporting from Punta Arenas, Chile. Off for an Antarctic research cruise, no internet for 66 days. See you in Tasmania! -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
655 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AZORES HAS
DIMINISHED.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE...AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS NOT EXPECTED.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE. 

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view satellite imagery

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Dominica [Apr 22 7:31]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Apr 20 14:43]
- Grenada [Apr 14 15:16]
- Anguilla [Apr 11 13:08]
- Culebra (PR) [Apr 5 7:36]
- Nevis [Apr 2 7:21]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Mar 30 14:24]
- Bonaire [Mar 22 3:03]
- Saba [Mar 1 8:09]
- St.Lucia [Dec 29 9:42]
- St.Croix [Dec 28 21:39]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Dec 25 20:37]
- St.Thomas [Dec 5 14:55]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Nov 5 0:00]
- St.John [Nov 3 6:56]
- Haiti [Nov 1 9:58]
- Curaçao [Oct 31 18:36]
- Barbados [Oct 26 10:44]
- Belize [Oct 26 8:11]
- Cayman Islands [Oct 2 0:05]
- Jamaica [Oct 1 12:20]
- Florida Keys [Oct 1 8:24]
- Martinique [Sep 27 14:28]
- Margarita Is., Venezuela [Sep 13 10:24]
- Dominican Republic [Sep 11 21:48]
- Antigua [Sep 11 1:00]
- Bermuda [Sep 10 21:11]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 7 14:37]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 5 7:55]
- Montserrat [Sep 3 20:07]
- Aruba [Aug 15 9:20]
- St.Kitts [Jul 28 7:25]
- St.Barts [Jul 21 12:09]
- Bahamas [May 22 23:53]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-130mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 131-155mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >155mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert