Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Arthur | Bertha | Cristobal | Dolly | Edouard | Fay | Gonzalo | Hanna | Isaias | Josephine | Kyle | Laura | Marco | Nana | Omar | Paulette | Rene | Sally | Teddy | Vicky | Wilfred |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (15:45 UTC, 47 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

96L Invest:

Sunday, August 17, 2014 20:58PM EDT - Hmmmm

Good evening,

Despite the draconian grip of copious amounts of Saharan Dust across the hurricane bowling alley of the Atlantic, we have a tropical wave with a 1011 mb low located at 11N 40W showing signs of defiance with a juicy flareup of showers and thunderstorms.

Facing more hostility the next few days as it treks mainly west at 10 mph, in the form of marginal SST's (sea surface temperatures) aka fuel, a dry stable and not very moist atmosphere and a bit of wind shear, this wave definitely has some issues to contend with but if it survives the next two days, it's outlook may become more pronounced and we may have a Cristobal. Why?

SST's (see above) will be warmer so the fuel for the fledgling engine will be hot and available while wind shear remains marginal. Pesky but fractured, the Saharan Dust level will still do its best inhibiting dance but will not be as forceful.

Behind this low is several more waves ready to exit stage left the African coast and, as we enter the "hot zone time period" of tropical development, our awareness should be heightened. The time for blobbette formation is at hand.

Dave 

Thursday, August 14, 2014 13:59PM EDT - Quiet but for how long?

Good afternoon!

Two hurricanes and that's the tally so far in this so far quiet as predicted 2014 Atlantic season with the heart of season starting tomorrow and lasting to mid October. The desert dry Saharan dust layer has been stifling any development so far and will continue its predation on tropical waves exiting the African coast much like seagulls waiting for baby turtles to hatch and race for the relative safety of the water.

Currently, decent area of dust envelopes the Lesser Antilles but is not as strong and dense as previously last month and will be followed by a moister patch of air and the remnants of 94L. Another denser batch will follow the passage of ex-94L and then we have another baby hatchling of a wave which is not forecast to grow up either. However, this one is low latitude and if it survives its trek as even a decent wave across the Atlantic, it could make a mature presence down the road.

Behind this wave at 31W with a 1012 low attached is a newly hatched wave with some vigor. As these other waves ahead transverse the hostile environment ahead, they could moisten up the atmosphere enough to allow for some slow development. SST's are marginal (hey look at Julio in the Pacific where he was surviving 25.3 C degree ( that's about 77.5 F) water temps as a TS still) so not out of the question for slow development. Wind shear is modest as well.

On the African continent itself there looks to be a lull in marching orders for a few days and then a couple of waves fall off in fairly quick succession and as we approach the end of August into September, this is where the fur might start to fly a little. As usual time and Mother nature will tell.

Closer to home we sure could use some more rain. Bertha was a bust for most here in the VI while water trucks continue to ply their trade as prolifically as the taxis do. Hopefully it rains before and after the Chili Cookoff on Sunday!

Dave

 . 

Sunday, August 10, 2014 14:57PM PDT - New Invest and no El Nino?
There is a new area of disturbed weather, close to the Cape Verde Islands, so far away from us. It looks like it might become something, so we have to keep a close eye on it, esp. since the models don't show it curving too much to the north.
On another note, the El Niño might indeed turn out to be an El Wimpo! Conditions in the Pacific show that the El Niño might be fizzling. See this article in the San Jose Mercury News. That is actually bad news for us, since usually El Niño suppresses hurricane formation. Nevertheless, the Colorado State hurricane forecasters, Klotzbach and Gray, did actually lower their already below average forecast. See the full article. They are now including specific 'landfall' probabilities for the Caribbean (more in this spreadsheet (e-transit.org)):
     POST-31 JULY PROBABILITIES OF HURRICANES AND MAJOR 
     HURRICANES TRACKING WITHIN 100 MILES OF EACH ISLAND OR 
     LANDMASS FOR 2014 (NUMBERS IN PARENTHESES ARE LONG-PERIOD 
     FULL SEASON AVERAGES)
     Island/Landmass      Hurricane within              Major Hurricane
                              100 miles                 within 100 miles
     The Bahamas              37% (51%)                   21% (30%)
     Cuba                     38% (52%)                   19% (28%)
     Haiti                    19% (27%)                    9% (13%)
     Jamaica                  17% (25%)                    7% (11%)
     Mexico (East Coast)      43% (57%)                   15% (23%)
     Puerto Rico              20% (29%)                    9% (13%)
     Turks and Caicos         16% (24%)                    6% (9%)
     US Virgin Islands        21% (30%)                    8% (12%)
So all looks quite below normal, but as we keep saying, it only takes one... -Gert

Saturday, August 2, 2014 11:00AM EDT - Bertha stuff

Good morning!

Quick update as I was supposed to be in St. Croix at 9:15 am but flight cancelled and new flight is supposed to be 2:30 pm. Heavy rain is falling all over the Virgin Islands right now and winds are around 28 mph from the SE gusting to 35 mph with accompanying thunder and lightning. Fortunately, WAPA is still on (probably jinxed it!) and the towel brigade is deployed and operational. On the way back from the airport, the usual suspect areas were starting to flood and I expect all sorts of earthly runoff to flow into the sea and also down our mountain roads.

TS Bertha is moving rapidly but beneficial rains are falling; not only here in the Virgin Islands but mid southern Puerto Rico as well where severe drought conditions exist. Flood warnings are already up in some counties and cities with shallow rivers and streams.

Due to her forward speed, conditions will rapidly improve overnight and tomorrow should be a dry beautiful day here but Hispaniola, the T&C and the southern Bahamas are up next to bat and Bertha could intensify as she motors on her trek.

Dave 

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
into the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and
the northeastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur during the next day or two while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph. After that time, development of
this system is not anticipated as it begins to interact with the
disturbance located to its west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Nevis [Aug 20 12:22]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Aug 20 9:43]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Aug 20 8:30]
- Grenada [Aug 20 8:21]
- Culebra (PR) [Aug 20 7:29]
- St.Croix [Aug 19 22:29]
- St.Lucia [Aug 19 21:18]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Aug 19 19:16]
- Dominica [Aug 19 18:01]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 18 23:06]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 17 19:09]
- St.Thomas [Aug 16 12:00]
- Bonaire [Aug 16 10:34]
- Anguilla [Aug 12 15:59]
- Antigua [Aug 11 7:56]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 3 23:14]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 3 12:58]
- Martinique [Aug 2 13:25]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 2 13:09]
- St.John [Aug 2 10:22]
- Montserrat [Aug 1 20:02]
- Barbados [Aug 1 16:13]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 1 16:05]
- Aruba [Jul 30 9:10]
- Curaçao [Jul 29 20:02]
- Jamaica [Jul 21 16:35]
- Florida Keys [Jul 3 8:22]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



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The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert