Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Ana | Bill | Claudette | Danny | Erika | Fred | Grace | Henri | Ida | Joaquin | Kate | Larry | Mindy | Nicholas | Odette | Peter | Rose | Sam | Teresa | Victor | Wanda |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (01:15 UTC, 55 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Tuesday, June 16, 2015 09:43AM PDT - Tropical Storm Bill
Short update... as Dave was eluding to yesterday, we have now Tropical Storm Bill, and is about to make landfall on Matagorda Island, Texas. The biggest threat will be the havey rainfall associated with this system. No threat to the Caribbean. You can use the handy tools above to find more info on this storm. -Gert

Monday, June 15, 2015 18:29PM EDT - Almost TS Bill

Good afternoon!

Been traveling to and from my Moms 70th Birthday celebration and finally had a chance to say a small bit of what is happening in the Western Gulf of Mexico. While we tend to focus on the Caribbean, this system actually started to form in the Western Caribbean as moisture from Carlos crossed Central America and the birthing of 91L began.

More than likely, soon to be named TS Bill, will impact the Texas coast sometime tomorrow morning with the main threat of life threatening heavy rains and consequential flooding over an already over-saturated land. The hurricane hunters were investigating today and found no closed low level circulation which means no named status as of yet. However, thunderstorm activity has started to encircle the low levels and wind shear, hostile today, will relax a bit thereby giving 91L a small window of opportunity to attain TS status.

Nevertheless, the main threat is heavy rains and flooding where the rains are definitely not needed. Coastal erosion will be heavy and the winds, at times. will cause some damage but nothing will be worse than the flooding rains.

Those of us in the Caribbean should take heed and stay or get prepared. It is the season.

Dave (From Miami Int Airport)

Tuesday, June 2, 2015 08:50AM PDT - Official start!
Yesterday was the official start of the 2015 hurricane season. As noted earlier expectations are that it is going to be a slow one! The new forecast by Klotzbach & Gray from Colorado State Univ. updated June 1 shows 8 named storms (+1 because of Ana, 12 is normal), 3 hurricanes (6.5 is normal) and just 1 major hurricane (2 are normal).

The probability of at least one named storm making (is)landfall somewhere in the Caribbean is 75% (96% is normal), chances for a hurricane are 46% (75% is normal) and a major one 22% (42% is normal). This might seem high, but keep in mind that these numbers cover the whole Caribbean (10-20°N, 60-88°W, a large area), not just one island. For just Puerto Rico for example, a relatively large island, the probability of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the island are just 2%.

Reasons for the expected slow season is the high chances of a strong El Niño forming and 'unfavorable conditions' (ie., cool) in the tropical Atlantic. In any case, as we always preach, it takes only one to spoil a season. On Brian McNoldy's blog, guest blogger Michael Laca (TROPMET.com is exploring the validity of the 'it only takes one' mantra. So please, everybody, start preparing now! Check those hurricane shutters, find your flashlights and get some extra batteries, check your first aid kit, etc., etc., and keep an eye on this website! -Gert

Saturday, May 23, 2015 12:23PM PDT - New Season!
Hallo everybody! Can you believe it is only 9 days until Hurricane Season officially starts? This will be the 20th season that I have been doing this! Can you believe it!? Some of the hurricane correspondents have been doing this for all this time as well! Who knew :-). Remember, this is just a 'hobby' of mine, and I always hope to recoup my expenses through ads and donations. So, please, help out again if you can.

Hopefully this season will be just as quiet as last year, when we only had 8 named storms. And it might very well be, the early forecast by Klotzbach&Gray (see below) shows only 7 named storms. This because it could be an El Nino year again (although last year it fizzled out a bit). Even though we had an early storm (Ana), it doesn't mean that it will be a busy season (see also some statistical analyses I did 10 years back).

I just made the website ready for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. For this I always have to move a lot of files around, and hopefully I didn't break anything... Hopefully you are getting your early preparations in as well. It is never too late to start thinking about storm shutters, emergency supplies, batteries, etc... In any case, welcome again to the new season, hope it will be a boring one!

-Gert

Wednesday, May 13, 2015 18:39PM EDT - First wave

Good afternoon!

Well, TS Ana sure caused an early stir to the pre-2015 Atlantic Hurricane season along the middle East Coast with drenching rains, beach erosion, dangerous rip currents (all rip currents are dangerous, what a cliché) and an early warning the tropical storm season 2015 is upon us.

Now, the climate is quiet in this hemisphere once again with copious amounts of Saharan Dust choking the moisture out of the atmosphere, strangling many landscapes and drying cisterns (plus wallets because it cost a lot of money to fill them back up with water) all across the Eastern Caribbean. The SAL stretches across to the west coast of Africa in various densities but, a moisture pod is about to exit the African coast. A 1006 mb low is about to enter the far eastern Atlantic.

The Eumetsat satellite featuring the African continent shows this low leaving land just above the ITCZ which means, for the most part, interaction and non tropical formation. Not only because of the timing is so early in the season, but the interaction, coupled with the dry Saharan Dust and cooler sea surface temperatures, will keep its possibilities very limited.

We here in the VI, BVI and down island all the way to Grenada are suffering a dearth of rain. Dry season started late this year and is continuing into a normally wetter period of May. Our islands are browning. Not good!

Be prepared!

Dave 


... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Jul 6 23:35]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jul 6 13:25]
- Grenada [Jul 6 12:23]
- Nevis [Jul 4 17:40]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Jul 2 9:59]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jul 1 15:47]
- Culebra (PR) [Jul 1 7:12]
- Dominica [Jun 27 10:42]
- Curaçao [Jun 24 7:34]
- St.Thomas [Jun 22 13:46]
- Barbados [Jun 21 15:47]
- General Update [Jun 16 19:53]
- St.Lucia [Jun 15 21:27]
- Cayman Islands [Jun 5 20:03]
- Anguilla [May 30 9:10]
- Puerto Rico [May 29 13:39]
- Martinique [May 28 18:08]
- Dominican Republic [May 18 7:36]
- Haiti [May 17 20:50]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert