Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Arlene | Bret | Cindy | Don | Emily | Franklin | Gert | Harvey | Irma | Jose | Katia | Lee | Maria | Nate | Ophelia | Philippe | Rina | Sean | Tammy | Vince | Whitney |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (02:45 UTC, 49 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Tuesday, June 20, 2017 13:38PM EDT - Bret, soon Cindy

Good afternoon!

It looks like our close to home system, 92L, won the name race, and, as TS Bret, is still speeding along over 20mph through the southernmost Windward islands of Trinidad & Tobago, Grenada, and Margarita Island, Venezuela along with numerous little cays and spits. Flooding has been reported, mostly in Trinidad so far and sporadically elsewhere but not all reports are in yet. TS Bret will continue to motor away from it's entrance into the Eastern Caribbean and make a beeline for the ABC islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao as a forecasted diminishing storm but making history along the way.

Bret is also forecast to fall apart and become an open wave by Thursday but surprises are everywhere this early season thus far, so it's not out of the question the east central Caribbean graveyard of early season storms might not yet claim another victim.

Back off to the east, the coast of Africa continues to emit an early season onslaught of tropical waves with a couple catching a few peeks from the models and the NHC. Interesting, when June is active, it seems July goes into a swoon. As long as we get rain periodically, that is not a bad thing!

It's looking like 93L, whose designation has now been replaced and upgraded by the new PTC 3 classification, is already dumping copious amounts of rain along the gulf coast with flooding, rip currents, closed beaches and businesses, sandbags, and local warnings in place. Recon is in the middle and regardless if it gets the name TS Cindy, which I expect shortly, the effects will be the same, name or no name as they have mentioned numerous times. Many tropical storms, especially slow movers, are more devastating than a fast moving hurricane as some areas might receive 12-18" of rainfall and many of these gulf coast areas are prone to flood from 3-5 inches of rainfall; Houston immediately coming to mind. However it appears from the Texas border to the Big Bend of Florida will receive the brunt at this time anyway.

Dave

Sunday, June 18, 2017 08:44AM EDT - Who wins the race?

Good morning,

Happy Fathers Day to all you Dad's out there!

The race is on to see who gets assigned the name Bret between our system in the NW Caribbean, a/k/a 93L and our system in the south central Atlantic, a/k/a 92L. Both are headed towards development with a 90% chance over 5 days for 93L and only a 50% chance for 92L.

93L experienced a blow up of convection overnight although this blob of thunderstorms and heavy rains was located off to the east of the low pressure system and not over it. This could be due to the lows proximity to land at this time but also the upper level winds influence. The models have now trended towards a more northerly component and possible formation in the central Gulf of Mexico as opposed to the western Gulf due to the approach and effects of a trough digging down from the north. This scenario appears to take Mexico out of the direct impact area and puts the Panhandle of Florida to Houston, Texas in tropical crosshairs. While a minimal hurricane is not out of the question as we have seen these things rapidly intensify previously, it is not expected. But, heavy flooding rains and gusty winds are, lasting for several days. Since there is no closed center of circulation yet and the system is very spread out, it will take some time to get organized and it could still curve west, impacting western Texas and Mexico directly but at the moment that seems unlikely.

92L, on the other hand, is chugging along at a robust 20 mph clip towards Venezuela and the southernmost Windward Islands of Grenada, St. Lucia, Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago. It still has a few days in which to reach depression and/or tropical storm status and just might beat 93L for the next name as it is more organized and compact. However, it's forward speed is not allowing it to consolidate its convection. In about 60 hours, it is expected to be several hundred miles south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in the eastern Caribbean, known at this time of year as the graveyard of tropical cyclones due to the dire effects of the upper level wind structure.

The wave train rolling off Africa is pretty impressive for this time of year and the wave that is right behind 92L is much more robust and should be around mid next week with the NHC already taking peeks at it while dealing with 92 and 93L.

Dave


Thursday, June 15, 2017 08:02AM EDT - Early double trouble potential

Good morning,

The two early season possibilities I shared on Monday have started to slowly manifest themselves many thousands of miles apart; one in the western Gulf of Mexico off the Yucatan Peninsula and a very low latitude tropical wave SSW of the Republic of Cabo Verde aka the Cape Verde Islands, west of the African nation of Senegal.

Currently located approx. 5N 29W stretching up to about 11N, our area of interest has a 1012 mb low imbedded and is moving towards the west approx. 15-20 mph. The factors playing in it's favor for slow development are SST's (sea surface temperatures) definitely warm enough to foster development, light wind shear (at least until it reaches about 45W), favorable MJO timing in the Atlantic ( which is a weather oscillation that circles the globe every 30-60 days enhancing or decreasing potential development depending on it's location) and it's position in a moisture laden atmosphere well south of the dry Saharan dust layer. Factors working against significant development are it's forward speed, it's proximity to the equator which keeps it from taking advantage of the earths rotation to spin up, and the aforementioned wind shear up ahead.

Track wise and timing show not much of a NNW track so current forecast has it plowing into the southern Windward islands as maybe a depression fighting wind shear with heavy rains for those areas and the coast of South America. Some rains and windy conditions would also affect the central and northern Antilles.This track is not cut in stone however, as it's early in the forecast period but all interest in the Lesser Antilles should pay attention.

Yes it's early and very rare for Atlantic development in June but it has happened a handful of times since the 1850's. What's rarer is to have another area of potential at the same time in June.
This would be the western Gulf of Mexico where a potential system of depression or TS strength could affect the Mexican coast and Texas  within a week. If the system can avoid intense interaction with land, the other factors for development are definitely in it's favor. Pay attention Texas!

Dave 

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge into the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday or Thursday. Environmental
conditions have become less conducive for the wave to develop.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Bonaire [Jun 27 21:40]
- St.Croix [Jun 27 21:28]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Jun 27 14:16]
- Nevis [Jun 27 11:15]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jun 27 4:10]
- Curaçao [Jun 21 0:24]
- Grenada [Jun 20 11:11]
- Margarita Is., Venezuela [Jun 20 6:29]
- Barbados [Jun 19 21:40]
- Dominica [Jun 19 17:18]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jun 18 20:30]
- St.Lucia [Jun 18 12:51]
- Cayman Islands [Jun 18 9:57]
- Belize [Jun 18 8:30]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Jun 14 16:45]
- Antigua [Jun 14 12:03]
- Culebra (PR) [Jun 1 7:02]
- Anguilla [May 29 9:35]
- Haiti [May 17 22:04]
- Dominican Republic [May 1 20:30]
- Montserrat [Mar 30 20:29]
- St.Thomas [Nov 21 12:44]
- St.John [Nov 1 8:50]
- Florida Keys [Oct 26 16:20]
- Bermuda [Oct 15 18:49]
- Bahamas [Oct 9 0:19]
- Jamaica [Oct 6 16:33]
- Cuba [Oct 6 10:03]
- St.Kitts [Oct 5 15:51]
- Turks & Caicos [Oct 5 7:27]
- Aruba [Oct 2 19:54]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 30 22:39]
- Martinique [Sep 28 19:35]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 5 20:58]
- Guadeloupe [Sep 5 11:55]
- Saba [Sep 1 7:56]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



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This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert