Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Ana | Bill | Claudette | Danny | Erika | Fred | Grace | Henri | Ida | Joaquin | Kate | Larry | Mindy | Nicholas | Odette | Peter | Rose | Sam | Teresa | Victor | Wanda |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (08:45 UTC, 41 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Tuesday, July 21, 2015 08:36AM EDT - Down the road

Good morning!

Three short lived tropical storms are what we have so far this hurricane season with two of them making landfall (TS Ana in South Carolina between Myrtle and North Myrtle Beach and TS Bill on Matagorda Island, Texas) and the third, Claudette, a fleeting runner from the northern east coast to the Canadian Maritimes. Lastly, 93L died a quicker death than anticipated as it was expected to at least put up a fight until it reached about 55W.

It's quiet now but the end of this month and into August we should see some activity flair up; first, more than likely, along the east coast of the US, possibly mid next week. The Atlantic conveyor belt should also show some stirring as the Saharan Dust Layer abates, warmer Sea Surface Temperatures appear, and wind shear weakens somewhat.  El Nino will obviously have a say in all this.

The continent of Africa is starting to jack up it's production of tropical waves and each one that rolls off the coast paves the way for the one behind it with better atmospheric moisture. There already are a few pretty impressive ones ready to hit the water but will they survive?

The drought continues meanwhile here in the NE Caribbean and Puerto Rico. A spit of rain here and there from the weak waves already rolling through helps but definitely not enough. Most of it is just nuisance rain so after it passes, the roads are slick, your cistern was the unlucky recipient of dusty water running off your roofs and your car looks like someone threw a bunch of dirty brown drops all over it. Of course, this happens after you wash it yourself.

Yes it's supposed to be quiet but it pays to be watchful regardless.

Dave

Friday, July 17, 2015 14:07PM EDT - 93L

Good afternoon from the drought stricken NE Caribbean!

While no one wishes for a full blown hurricane, other than out of work contractors, many who I have talked to recently have been wishing for a slow moving minimal tropical storm, tropical depression or just a real well defined and active tropical wave to alleviate the drought conditions here in the NE Caribbean including Puerto Rico. 93L just "might" be our first alleviation.

Key word is "might". 93L is currently located approx. 1000 miles SSW of the Caper Verde islands. While the near term bodes moderately well for some development, the long term does anything but. Near term, the sea surface temperatures (SST), are at the minimum for sustainable development and slow at that, while in an atmosphere of decent moisture. An anti-cyclone is directly above the perceived center of the system (I'm not saying circulation because there is not a defined circulation yet) which is assisting in the minimization of wind shear. The one downside for the near term is 93L's forward speed. It needs to slow down so that vertical enhancement can take place. With that said, for a very early CV or Cape Verde spawned system, the chance for development into a named storm, weak as it may become, is a decent possibility. But, that window is short lived.

The long term prospects for an actual named system surviving into the Caribbean are possible but at the remote end of the scale. Models which do not handle non-named systems mostly bring 93L or whatever it is in 5 days, to the NE Caribbean. By that time, the ingestion of dry Saharan Dust ladened air will have stifled development while jet stream-like wind shear (driven by El Nino) will effectively kill what's left over.

It will be very interesting to see how this plays out. One thing it will definitely do is start to moisten the atmosphere for future waves. The draconian grip of the SAL (Saharan Air Level) appears to be loosening which is good news for allergy and drought sufferers alike. Not to mention a pretty blue sky has been hard to come by lately!

Keep an eye to the east. It's early and the forecast for the number of storms in all categories is down mainly due to a strong El Nino. But we have had bad tropical systems in previous strong El Nino years. Andrew? Remember, it only takes one.

Dave

Monday, July 13, 2015 11:51AM PDT - Third Storm of the Season
A new tropical storm has formed well off the coast of the US, named Claudette. It is moving north-northeast and poses no threat to the Caribbean. Claudette is expected to be a short-lived storm since it will find much cooler waters ahead. Another one down :-) -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Jul 29 0:03]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jul 26 13:48]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jul 26 11:45]
- Grenada [Jul 25 12:34]
- Nevis [Jul 23 14:43]
- Bonaire [Jul 21 12:58]
- Barbados [Jul 21 10:38]
- Dominica [Jul 18 11:18]
- St.Lucia [Jul 16 7:51]
- Vieques (PR) [Jul 15 18:04]
- Cayman Islands [Jul 12 20:19]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Jul 11 15:08]
- Curaçao [Jul 10 19:01]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Jul 2 9:59]
- Culebra (PR) [Jul 1 7:12]
- St.Thomas [Jun 22 13:46]
- General Update [Jun 16 19:53]
- Anguilla [May 30 9:10]
- Puerto Rico [May 29 13:39]
- Martinique [May 28 18:08]
- Dominican Republic [May 18 7:36]
- Haiti [May 17 20:50]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert