Caribbean Hurricane Network

- Updates from the Islands -

| home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Arlene | Bret | Cindy | Don | Emily | Franklin | Gert | Harvey | Irma | Jose | Katia | Lee | Maria | Nate | Ophelia | Philippe | Rina | Sean | Tammy | Vince | Whitney |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (10:15 UTC, 34 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

97L Invest:

Tuesday, July 25, 2017 10:17AM EDT - Atlantic Nap but.....

Good morning!

What a picture of tranquility the last 5 days or so have been for the Atlantic side of hurricane season while in sharp contrast, the Pacific theater (East Pacific in particular) has been anything but tranquil. Currently, with two hurricanes, a tropical storm, an invest and the remnants of Fernanda inhabit the East Pacific while a typhoon and two tropical storms are jump starting a very slow Northwest Pacific. While the East Pac's storms are not expected to impact land directly, it will be interesting to see if any of that significant moisture will be able to reach and stream into SoCal thereby helping to contain some of those fierce wildfires.

Back to our side of the hemisphere, our MDR is quietly biding it's time while percolating along, slinging tropical wave after tropical wave off the African coast where currently, hostile wind shear but diminishing in intensity, Saharan Dust, still wreaks havoc on them. That will probably not be the case as we get into August. Right now, a blobbette is close to Barbados and will bring stormy conditions shortly as the wave passes.

CSU has upgraded their forecast (thank you Roddy) to 15 named storms this season and we have been through 4 of them, all short lived systems but still, 4 of them. With 11 to go, they say 8 hurricanes and three Cat 3 or higher. With diminishing wind shear, plenty of warm water fuel, Saharan dust retreating north, and lower atmospheric pressures, this forecast does not bode well.

While the Atlantic is taking a nap, now is a great time to stock up on hurricane supplies, get that generator tuned up, and revisit your hurricane plans both home and at work. Don't let complacency be your own worst enemy.

Dave

Wednesday, July 19, 2017 14:31PM EDT - Whose next?

Good afternoon!

With the demise of short-lived, less than 24 hours, TS Don and 96L not expected to do anything as it navigates towards the dry, hazy Saharan Dust Layer to it's north, the Atlantic basin will now go take a nap. After getting everyone's attention so early in the season, TS Bret and TS Don will become the vanguard footnotes to quite possibly a very active season coming into August and September.

Ex TS Don is going to give the ABC Islands some much needed rains plus some high surf but not much else after dousing Trinidad and Tobago with flooding rains they did not need. There is little confidence there will be any regeneration from ex TS Don down the road as it continues it's westerly trek.

96L isn't really being called 96L anymore as there is little continued interest by the NHC in it's potential to survive it's encounter with our early season dust shield. I have to say if we did not have the dust in place, we probably would have had 4 named storms by now and one serious hurricane. Still, 96L hasn't gone away as some shower and thunderstorm activity has increased lately despite that dust presence and we all know weird climatological things have transpired bucking forecast trends and models.

Off to the far east Atlantic the next pretender/contender has splashed down off the African coast into a very moist environment with another one riding it's coattails. This scenario will be akin to groundhog day for the foreseeable seasons future.

Dave


Monday, July 17, 2017 17:25PM EDT - TS Don

Good afternoon again,

Yes we now have TS Don, christened in roughly the same area as TS Bret was east of the southern Windward Islands. This is mainly due to a hurricane hunter recon investigation finding a low level closed circulation this afternoon. A small system, it is headed mainly west with a little NW component. Model consensus is between Barbados and Trinidad & Tobago. A narrow track indeed but almost 100% agreement is hard to disagree with. Unusual for one storm much less two affecting these southern Windwards. With 2/3 of the official Atlantic season still left and the traditionally historic 6 weeks of prime activity left, what else is in store? Appears to me, a busy and probably destructive period until Nov 30.

Be prepared, aware, and safe.

Dave

Sent from my iPhone

Monday, July 17, 2017 14:18PM EDT - Tropics heating up again!

Good afternoon!

After a lull in the early season action, both the Pacific and Atlantic MDR's have come alive with actual and potential tropical entities. While the Pacific has a major hurricane still in the form of Fernanda with a couple trailing suitors, the Atlantic has a few more early birds with eyes on a name for themselves.

We will take the farthest one out in the Atlantic first, which is about 900 miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Moving off to west at about 12-17 mph it probably will be designated 96L sometime later today or overnight as it is being given a 30% chance over the next 5 days to develop at this moment. Current modeling indicates it will turn more west northwest and not be any threat to the Caribbean or any other land masses. It also will run into plenty of Saharan Dust, the early on, knight in shining armor protectorate. Still needs monitoring though if it's path doesn't follow instructions.

Closer to home we have 95L struggling to build on it's current condition of an open wave while satellite located around 11.5N 54W or about 525 miles ESE of Barbados. Moving a bit north of due west at about 16 mph, it has shown some convective improvement in the last few hours and a hurricane hunter recon mission has just reached it's first NW entry point. We will know much more during and after this flight. 

Track wise, almost all of the models are in good agreement, regardless of development or not, this system will pass somewhere between the Grenadines and Martinique. A weaker storm will pass more southerly while a building storm will tend to take a more northern trek but not expected to be abrupt either scenario.

I'll have more later

Dave

 


... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity is
associated with a broad low pressure system located about 800 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Slow development is
possible over the next several days while the system moves
slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

- - - Do you live in the Caribbean? - - -
Join our team of special local hurricane correspondents.


   stormCARIB is brought to you by GoBeach Vacations   
- Your Accommodation Specialist for the Caribbean -


stormCARIB is hosted
at and supported by
pairNetworks

Support stormCARIB
-- Donations needed --

Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Grenada [Jul 28 6:43]
- St.Croix [Jul 27 22:00]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jul 27 20:43]
- Montserrat [Jul 27 20:41]
- Nevis [Jul 27 16:13]
- Antigua [Jul 27 5:41]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jul 26 20:40]
- St.Lucia [Jul 20 19:14]
- Dominica [Jul 20 6:31]
- Bonaire [Jul 19 21:05]
- Curaçao [Jul 19 9:01]
- Barbados [Jul 18 17:21]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Jul 17 11:26]
- Turks & Caicos [Jul 9 14:46]
- Anguilla [Jul 5 9:39]
- St.Thomas [Jul 4 8:26]
- Culebra (PR) [Jul 1 6:48]
- Margarita Is., Venezuela [Jun 28 9:28]
- Cayman Islands [Jun 18 9:57]
- Belize [Jun 18 8:30]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Jun 14 16:45]
- Haiti [May 17 22:04]
- Dominican Republic [May 1 20:30]
- St.John [Nov 1 8:50]
- Florida Keys [Oct 26 16:20]
- Bermuda [Oct 15 18:49]
- Bahamas [Oct 9 0:19]
- Jamaica [Oct 6 16:33]
- Cuba [Oct 6 10:03]
- St.Kitts [Oct 5 15:51]
- Aruba [Oct 2 19:54]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 30 22:39]
- Martinique [Sep 28 19:35]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 5 20:58]
- Guadeloupe [Sep 5 11:55]
- Saba [Sep 1 7:56]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


GoBeach Vacations
- Your source for the best Caribbean vacation you've ever had! -
www.gobeach.com | info@gobeach.com

Back to top | home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive

Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert