Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Depression Two
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (11:15 UTC, 38 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Two tools:

Tuesday, July 22, 2014 07:02AM PDT - Tropical Depression Two
It has been awhile, but finally we have the second storm of the season. Tropical depression number 2 is currently about 1000 miles east of the islands and moving west. The forecast shows that it is not expected to become a tropical storm but that it will dissipate before it even reaches the islands. Let's hope that scenario holds true, although still a lot of rain might fall when it crosses the island chain. If I extrapolate its current path I estimate the storm to cross around Dominica/Guadeloupe, but that is highly speculative. So, not too threatening, but still have to keep an eye on it. -Gert

Tuesday, July 1, 2014 09:48AM PDT - First storm of the season
It's a month into hurricane season and we finally have our first named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Arthur. It is currently located just north of the Bahamas and slowly moving to the north. Arthur is not threat to the islands but might on its way to the north/north east it might clip the US coast (Cape Hatteras) within 3 days and it might actually be a hurricane by then. Use the tools about to check how close the storm can get to you and more. Stay safe! -Gert

Monday, June 30, 2014 09:30AM EDT - End of June 2014

Good morning everyone!

It has been a while since my last post with not much action to ponder which really is a good position for all of us to be in but I believe a quiet start does not mean a quiet season ahead for us here in the Atlantic Basin.

Already in the Pacific we have seen 4 named storms form; the latest being TS Douglas yesterday. None have had a destructive impact on land and as long as that trend continues it will be a good season no matter how many form. If a couple of them meandered farther north and sent some rain into Southern California, the Southwest and Texas, those beneficial rains could help alleviate the serious drought being experienced in those areas; also a good season.

Here in the Atlantic, we have experienced a big 0 in the amount of named storms (a very good thing) and only one decent area of interest, now labeled 91L, currently located between the east coast of Northern Florida and the Northern Bahamas. Wind shear is low and the gulf stream temperatures are plenty warm enough to get this thing jumpstarted but some dry air from the north has been an inhibiting factor. Nonetheless, it looks like we will have our first tropical depression forming in that area within the next 48-72 hours if not sooner. If it reaches TS status, the first name on the list is Arthur.

The models cannot agree yet on a possible track with some over Florida and some up the NE coast as they always have difficulty when a system is not organized. Regardless, heavy rains are probable from Florida up to Virginia and the central/northern Bahamas depending on how far south it goes first. Time will tell.

Off to the east the Saharan Dust level is enormous stretching from Hispaniola to Africa. This, along with high westerly winds, aka wind shear, will continue to suppress tropical formation in the Atlantic bowling alley for the time being. As Gert mentioned previously, El Nino could turn into El Wimpo making for an interesting September/October.

Closer to home, rain is the four letter word most people are talking about here in the Virgin Islands with "lack of" being the prominent phrase most used before it. This has been the driest mid may to the end of June I can recall in the 24 years I have lived here. Normally, mid February and March are very dry but this has been drought like. A tropical wave with most of its energy is passing south of our islands but looks like it will throw us a bone or two later today while St. Croix, closer to the action has seen a much prayed for downpour already with another blast coming shortly. It's possible this creeps up north far enough we may get something decent out of it before a return to the dust induced haze and filtered sunshine.

Take care and prepare.

Dave

Friday, June 6, 2014 09:23AM PDT - El Niño or El Wimpo
El Niño years are usually quiet hurricane seasons. The latest ENSO Discussion by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicate that chances of an El Niño developing have increased a bit to 82% (up from 78% last month). However, it might not be a strong one, but rather a moderate El Niño... Or as a climatologist at NASA's JPL said, we might have an El Fizzle coming up... -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view satellite imagery

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jul 23 4:00]
- Grenada [Jul 23 3:24]
- Dominica [Jul 23 1:38]
- St.Croix [Jul 22 22:46]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Jul 22 18:32]
- Antigua [Jul 22 7:53]
- St.Lucia [Jul 22 7:21]
- Jamaica [Jul 21 16:35]
- Nevis [Jul 21 11:42]
- Bonaire [Jul 15 11:25]
- Dominican Republic [Jul 14 9:55]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Jul 11 8:29]
- Barbados [Jul 10 15:42]
- St.Thomas [Jul 5 16:13]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jul 3 21:38]
- Florida Keys [Jul 3 8:22]
- Culebra (PR) [Jul 1 6:54]
- Cayman Islands [Jun 30 21:30]
- Anguilla [Jun 3 16:50]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert