Caribbean Hurricane Network
- Updates from the Islands -
2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
| Ana | Bill | Claudette | Danny | Erika | Fred | Grace | Henri | Ida | Joaquin | Kate | Larry | Mindy | Nicholas | Odette | Peter | Rose | Sam | Teresa | Victor | Wanda ||
Active Tropical Systems: Hurricane Joaquin
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (03:15 UTC, 53 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].
Did you know that this all volunteer website depends on donations from visitors like you? I need them to cover the expenses I incur by running the Caribbean Hurricane Network. So if you love this unique website featuring original content, and you don't want it to disappear, you can show your support by visiting the donations webpage
. Any amount helps! Thank you so much! -Gert
I am always looking for more hurricane correspondents! See below.
Monday, October 5, 2015 09:40AM PDT - Another Invest
- Wow, pretty busy on the storm front. Joaquin is moving away from Bermuda. I am trying to get some reports from my correspondents on the island. I have just posted on the Bahamas-page a link to our Facebook page where I shared some pictures from other people. And now we have another Invest. It is currently about 1000 miles from the islands. The National Hurricane Center gives it a very low probability that it will become something. However, since the model tracks (spaghetti plots) have it track over the northeastern Leeward Island we have to keep an eye on it. Also, some models do actually forecast it to be a tropical storm or even a hurricane in 48 hours, which seems unlikely to me. Stay tuned... -Gert
Sunday, October 4, 2015 09:55AM PDT - Bermuda
- The center of Joaquin is expected to pass just about 80 miles to the west of Bermuda. The island is officially just outside sustained hurricane storm force winds, but for sure will have gusts of that force and sustained tropical storm force winds. The strongest part of the storm is to the south east, so basically the tail. Apart from the wind the storm surge might pose a problem as well. Luckily Bermuda seems always very well prepared for these kind of storms, so hopefully all goes well. It will be a whole different situation than it was for the Bahamas where Joaquin as a Category 4 storm just sat for a few days.
As for the Bahamas, I wish I was getting more updates. I have found some Facebook pages, Long Island and San Salvador. If you know of other good sources, please let me know. -Gert
Saturday, October 3, 2015 14:43PM EDT
- Borderline 5 Joaquin
Finally. We received some blessed rainfall here in the VI, mostly this morning in the form of a small train of thunderstorms which continue to rumble at this moment, all courtesy of the tail of Hurricane Joaquin as he lumbers off for a date with Bermuda on Sunday afternoon. As he pulls away from ravaging the Central Bahamas, he is dragging deep tropical moisture northward and that is why we woke up to some tremendous thunder and torrential downpours this morning. Power has dropped sporadically around the northern islands but for the most part, WAPA has stayed on.
Hurricane Joaquin was just upgraded to a high level Cat 4 hurricane as of the 2 pm advisory with a special advisory put out around noon by the NHC after a hurricane hunter aircraft penetrated the eye wall and found flight level winds exceeding 155 mph with higher gusts. After their usual adjustments, verifications and tweaking, they decided to keep the surface wind speeds at 155 mph, one mph less than Category 5 minimum. Based on the intensification factors from earlier today and the jump in wind speed, I'd say it is a Cat 5 but we are splitting hairs here. 1 mph isn't going to a make any difference to those on the ground in the middle of Joaquin.
Will it maintain this intensity for long? Maybe into the evening but he has picked up some speed and will soon start to lose some oomph as he encounters slightly cooler waters and some increased wind shear. However, the waters around Bermuda are still between 83-85 degrees so Joaquin will still be a major hurricane as it passes by to the west. However, weebles wobble and if this weeble wobbles just a bit to the east, Bermuda, one of the best prepared islands in the Atlantic, will take a major hit.
Last note on Joaquin. Until he is past Bermuda and curving east, do not get complacent upper east coast. Wrong turns have happened before.
90L, the former artist known as TS Ida, is still lurking to the east of Joaquin and actually is assisting his escape from the Bahamas to the NE. While a chance for rejuvenation still exists, 90L is probably a goner after Joaquin exits the arena.
While all eyes have been on Joaquin, the low over Florida and 90L, several waves have been creeping up from behind off to the east. One has not exited the African coast yet but will in a day or so while a lower tropical wave is showing very slow signs of waking up SW of the Cape Verde islands. Traditionally, activity slows in this region tropical formation wise but this has not been a normal traditional season so they bear watching regardless.
Prayers and thoughts with all who have endured the seemingly endless wrath of Hurricane Joaquin.
Friday, October 2, 2015 10:16AM PDT - Move on please!
- Joaquin is still beating up the Bahamas. Now a Category 4 storm with 130 mph sustained winds! The center is currently over Rum Cay and moving at just 3 mph... This is not a good situation. I haven't heard much from my hurricane correspondents on the Bahamas, for obvious reasons. As soon as I get some news it will be posted on the Bahamas reports page. I have also opened up the Pleas for Help forums. There might be other (better) discussion forums elsewhere, but I created them just in case. E-mail me or post on the forum if you know of any other good resources. The Pleas for Help forums can be found at: help.stormcarib.com.
On another note... with model forecasts trending eastward, Bermuda should take note of this storm as well. -Gert
... Older discussions >>
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Joaquin, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race,
A tropical wave located about 650 miles east of the Leeward Islands
is producing an elongated area of showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation for the next couple of days, but they could
become a little more conducive by the end of the week and over the
weekend. However, any development of this disturbance should be
slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
15 to 20 mph over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image|
stormCARIB is brought to you by GoBeach Vacations
- Your Accommodation Specialist for the Caribbean -
stormCARIB is hosted
at and supported by
-- Donations needed --
Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Nevis [Oct 6 20:06]
- Bermuda [Oct 6 7:02]
- St.Croix [Oct 5 22:42]
- Dominica [Oct 5 19:00]
- Bahamas [Oct 5 12:38]
- Anguilla [Oct 5 11:52]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Oct 5 10:44]
- Turks & Caicos [Oct 3 13:49]
- St.Thomas [Oct 3 12:17]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Oct 3 12:14]
- Dominican Republic [Oct 3 7:58]
- Antigua [Oct 2 7:16]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Oct 2 6:29]
- Grenada [Oct 1 8:21]
- Culebra (PR) [Oct 1 7:33]
- St.Lucia [Sep 21 20:48]
- Haiti [Sep 21 20:30]
- Montserrat [Sep 11 20:38]
- Bonaire [Sep 9 7:11]
- Guadeloupe [Sep 4 7:55]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 2 23:13]
- Saba [Sep 1 7:45]
- Jamaica [Aug 30 21:00]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 30 13:33]
- St.John [Aug 30 12:30]
- Barbados [Aug 29 19:57]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 28 10:18]
- Statia [Aug 27 16:50]
- St.Kitts [Aug 27 10:47]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 15 21:45]
- Curaçao [Aug 4 9:23]
- General Update [Jun 16 19:53]
- Martinique [May 28 18:08]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide
|- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -|
The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact email@example.com.
WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!
Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to email@example.com. Gert