Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alex | Bonnie | Colin | Danielle | Earl | Fiona | Gaston | Hermine | Ian | Julia | Karl | Lisa | Matthew | Nicole | Otto | Paula | Richard | Shary | Tobias | Virginie | Walter |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (21:15 UTC, 59 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Thursday, November 24, 2016 10:17AM EST - Wow Otto

Good morning,

Happy Thanksgiving to all those who celebrate and embrace this American holiday!

What's not so happy is the situation off the Caribbean coastline of Nicaragua and Costa Rica where dangerous Hurricane Otto, having finally decided it was time, is approaching the coastline and where the eyewall is expected to landfall this afternoon.

Currently at 110 mph, Otto has a few more hours to strengthen and might actually make major Cat 3 status. The eye is a pinhole 15 miles wide with TS force winds out to about 75 miles so Otto is a compact storm with a potent punch. The eye has cleared out the last few hours on both microwave and infrared satellite imagery suggesting strengthening so Cat 3 is not out of the question with a few hours left as he moves currently about 9 mph to the west and expected to pick up some forward speed.

Looking at the latest satellite imagery, Otto appears to have taken a jog to the south and might actually make a historic Costa Rican landfall; one never recorded since records began. But if the eyewall hits just a mile into Nicaragua, that record will still stand as it's where the eyewall actually strikes land is where it's official landfall is determined.

If there is a sliver lining, it is the fact Otto will strike  a sparsely populated area of coastline including a nature preserve in Nicaragua. Needless to say, those who do live there are in for a heck of a ride. Heavy rains will also be a major player with life threatening flood and mudslides. This is a storm to be reckoned with and will undoubtably be destructive sadly both in property and human life.

Once Otto clears Central America, he is expected to die a slow death in the Eastern Pacific as wind shear and cooler waters will contribute to his demise.

TD Marce by the Phillipines, snow detected in Tokyo for the first time in like 50 years, and a probable, at landfall, major hurricane named Otto about to maybe make dubious, destructive history are all players this Thanksgiving Day. We have much to be thankful for.

Dave

Tuesday, November 22, 2016 14:45PM PST - Hurricane Otto
Here we have a late season surprise, Hurricane Otto, although Dave had pointed out this stubborn weather system a week ago in the same area. It is expected to move to the west to make landfall at the Nicaragua/Costa Rican border. A hurricane this far south in the Caribbean is very unusual. It would be a first ever for Costa Rica. As is often the case, the rain associated with this system will be the biggest threat, locally 15-20 inch... Stay safe! -Gert

Sunday, November 20, 2016 10:51AM EST - Caribbean Mess

Good Sunday morning!

Six days ago I posted about a possible "Otto" and today, I'm still posting about a possible "Otto" and the system is still in the same area as well!

Located off the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua, 90L is still in a meandering, erratic moving state with no particular place to go. Steering currents have and continue to be weak but if it develops, it's rotation will take it somewhere, most likely into Nicaragua, according to the latest model trends.

On satellite this morning, it is not the blobbette that has formed south of Haiti and the Dominican Republic; rather the discombobulated mess in the extreme SW corner of the Caribbean. It doesn't have a large window in which to organize but it has a chance right now with above average SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures) and a good deal of moisture in the atmosphere with no dry air interference around. Only downside is wind shear, which is marginal but even that shouldn't hinder development with all the juiciness in the atmosphere.

So, as the front pulls away, maybe Otto will come out and play. But he won't play nice. Regardless whether it becomes TS Otto, reaches and stays at depression status, or doesn't become an organized system at all, life threatening heavy rains and flooding will affect Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

Closer to home, a lingering trough has produced very slow moving cells of heavy rainfall the last couple days although we are in a dry slot at the time. Even our cell phones sounded the flash flood warning yesterday. We are expecting heavy rains tonight into tomorrow and the ground is saturated on a very green island. While many of these forecasts do not verify, they are forecasts so that means the potential is there so keep aware.

Dave

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.  Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2017.  During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Anguilla [Dec 2 16:05]
- Dominica [Dec 1 13:17]
- St.Lucia [Dec 1 10:10]
- Culebra (PR) [Dec 1 5:29]
- St.Croix [Nov 30 21:39]
- Barbados [Nov 29 17:43]
- Antigua [Nov 29 6:18]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Nov 28 21:11]
- Montserrat [Nov 28 20:25]
- Bonaire [Nov 26 7:42]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Nov 25 20:14]
- St.Thomas [Nov 21 12:44]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Nov 21 12:14]
- Haiti [Nov 19 19:12]
- Curaçao [Nov 16 22:56]
- Dominican Republic [Nov 14 10:50]
- Grenada [Nov 14 5:38]
- Nevis [Nov 2 8:27]
- St.John [Nov 1 8:50]
- Florida Keys [Oct 26 16:20]
- Bermuda [Oct 15 18:49]
- Cayman Islands [Oct 10 9:21]
- Bahamas [Oct 9 0:19]
- Jamaica [Oct 6 16:33]
- Cuba [Oct 6 10:03]
- St.Kitts [Oct 5 15:51]
- Turks & Caicos [Oct 5 7:27]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Oct 4 19:51]
- Aruba [Oct 2 19:54]
- Belize [Oct 2 8:15]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 30 22:39]
- Martinique [Sep 28 19:35]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 5 20:58]
- Guadeloupe [Sep 5 11:55]
- Saba [Sep 1 7:56]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert