At around noon yesterday, Wednesday 19, October 2005, Wilma’s petticoat began brushing the coastline of the Mexican Yucatan like a Flamenco dancer of old Spain. She has danced around in spirals in the south Caribbe for three days. Not tiring, but gaining strength from the hot waters flowing at her tight center. Still no one knows where she will thrust her first full fury first.

All meteorologists have turned their focus of their forecasts as far away as the New England coast. I suppose because they are befuddled by this most powerful woman known as Wilma. “I have lost all confidence in all forecast tracks. . .” one meteorologist stated in his discussion of this category five hurricane. Wilma refuses to stay within the lines of both time and direction laid out for her by scores of meteorologists and their computers.

Normally, at night, I am lulled to sleep by a gentle rumble of the barrier reef eight hundred meters in front of this house. All afternoon and through last night’s moonlit sea, it seemed the reef rolled to my front door every minute or two; crashing with the sound of a giant mop bucket full of dirty water being discarded forcefully onto the sand. Only when there is a monster out there not so very far away does this ever happen. So I sit, watching the flotsam and jetsam arrive with the waves through this bright night punctuated by coconuts thudding with a melodic hollow sound as they are wrestled from their nests by the increasing northwesterly breezes turning to hard winds with little screams through the fronds.

A barely waning full moon relinquished its responsibility of providing light to the sea and the sky which briefly swapped colors before turquoise glowed near the horizon with sand browned muddy waters reaching to tarnish the morning view. Where the sky usually meets the Caribbe with the thin white line of sea foam from the halting of waves on coral, a continuous stripe of white twenty times larger than most times widens even more like a long geyser splashing into the black, dark blue and grey striped sky. As the darkest parts roll in like a cloud from a movie’s slow explosion, clarity vanishes while Wilma seemingly weeps in banded torrents. Sipping coffee and watching the show, “This is not going to be a Chamber of Commerce day!” I realize.

The fridge clicks on only momentarily and stops dead. Three days of clouds and a fried generator makes a day not so shocking for a guy living on solar when the batteries get drained. Since the generator died, I have been trying to consume everything in it and freezing purified water in its place. I think it can remain out of service for a while now so it is unplugged. I sit and write this on paper waiting for enough sun to check the status of Wilma on the computer.

When last I checked, yesterday, I figured I had until at least this afternoon to decide whether to flee or stay. Though the sea is now at my back door and I am now on an island, I’d still prefer to stay. With the midday sun peaking at my panels a bit I will post this and more later on a brighter day.

From the last gringo on the east coast of México and the first gringo in Mexico to glimpse Wilma, I wish all who may have the displeasure to know her also, Good Luck and God Bless!

Sincerely,

Cliff

Please visit http://www.portillas.com

Something all new and exciting will be there hopefully very soon.

COZUMEL, MEXICO, RECOvers from hurricane Emily

July 19, 2005 (1:30 PM) – Cozumel is quickly recovering from the effects of Hurricane Emily, which moved through the island early Monday morning (July 18). 

According to Gaston Cantarell Diaz, president of the Cozumel Hotel Association, Cozumel sustained minimal damage and everyone on island weathered the storm safely.

 “Cozumel is doing well and operating as normal today.  The airport is open and ferry services are up and running again,” he said.  “Although there was some damage to hotels and other local properties, the important thing is that everyone remained safe throughout the storm.”

Current updates from the island:

·         The Cozumel airport reopened on Monday, July 18, at 1:00 p.m. CST

·         Ferry services began operating again at 7:00 a.m. this morning (Tuesday, July 19)                                                                   

·         Cozumel hotels and resorts are currently open and operating and are expected to complete hurricane related repairs by next Monday, July 25.

·         Currently the only hotel on island that will temporarily close due to damage from Hurricane Emily is the Iberostar Cozumel Hotel.  Individuals with existing reservations at the Iberostar should contact the hotel for further information.

·         The majority of clean-up on island has been finished and the island roads are completely clear.

·         Downtown restaurants and shops are open.

·         To ensure the safety of visitors to the island, approximately 1,200 tourists were evacuated to the Cozumel Convention Center on Sunday evening (July 17) where they rode at the storm.  Guests at hotels equipped with safety facilities were moved to on-site shelters.

·         Tourists began returning to their hotels and resorts early Monday.  Guests whose hotels sustained damage by the hurricane were accommodated at alternate hotels and resorts.

For more information, please contact YPB&R Public Relations:

Noel Perkins                                    

(407) 838-1797                                  

                        noel_perkins at ypbr.com                     

Jeanette Chin

(407) 838-1807

jeanette_chin at ypbr.com

I am still not finding a lot of information out of the main strike zone of Emily. This link has some pretty stunning photos. http://news.yahoo.com/photos/ss/events/ts/080304tropicalweathe/im:/050718/480/gfx18807182057;_ylt=AuaVrIUHG1ZK1jav.Vrna9gTO7gF;_ylu=X3oDMTA5bGcyMWMzBHNlYwNzc25hdg--?sp=-1&lsp=8000 It takes a while to load and there are 182 photos there so, be patient. It is better than anything else I’ve seen yet.

Cliff

http://www.portillas.com

At about 4:30 yesterday afternoon a band from Emily brushed us here in Xcalak. There was no rain to speak of and only maybe 35kt winds out of the north. Somehow, I knew Emily had spared us here and that was all we would get.

There are many up the beach from here that were much less fortunate. I am praying they will survive and rapidly recover. I have a specific request I’d appreciate somebody in the Akumal area to help me with. There is a truly wonderful lady, who has a ranch/animal shelter there, named Lucy. She is well known in the area. I spoke with her online yesterday and offered my place for a potential shelter. It was her intention to stay and watch over the 25 or so animals she has been taking care of. Because the logistics of moving them (there are two horses among them.) was too difficult, she could not be persuaded to leave. Would somebody be so kind as to check on her and be sure she or the animals are not in need of medical attention? I will be immensely grateful. I thank you in advance for any assistance you can provide for her.

May God bless all affected by hurricane Emily. Let the sun dry your tears and your friends make you smile once again.

Sincerely,

Cliff

This was posted on http://renegade-cruisers.org discussion board today:

“CANCUN, Mexico - A massive evacuation of tourists in one of the world's largest resorts began Sunday, with hundreds of buses dispatched to move tens of thousands of vacationers away from Hurricane Emily, heading for a direct hit on Mexico's coast.

“The size of the task was daunting: About 500 buses were ordered to move 30,000 tourists in Cancun -- part of a total of 70,000-80,000 mostly foreign visitors to be evacuated statewide to temporary shelters in ballrooms and convention centers.

"We have very little hope that this will change course," said a grim-faced Cancun Mayor Francisco Alor. "This hurricane is coming with the same force as Gilbert," a legendary hurricane that killed 300 people in Mexico and the Caribbean in 1988.

“That was the last time Cancun faced a mass evacuation. But back then, the city and surrounding resort areas were fairly new and had only about 8,000 hotel rooms; that number has since grown to more than 50,000.

“By 8 a.m. EDT Sunday, Emily was located about 305 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, and was moving toward the island at about 20 mph, with sustained winds of nearly 150 mph. The eye of the storm was expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula late Sunday or early Monday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

“Along the narrow spit of land that holds most of Cancun's palatial hotels, workers scrambled to board up businesses and remove traffic lights along the eight-mile main strip, to keep them from becoming wind-borne projectiles when the hurricane hit.

"This hurricane isn't going to take Cancun away from us," Alor vowed.

“Some three dozen of the city's largest, strongest hotels were putting rows of beds in windowless meeting halls and ballrooms to shelter those evacuated from smaller hotels and exposed beach-side rooms.

“On the island of Cozumel, just south of Cancun, tourists were moved away from beachside hotels to ones closer to the center of the island, which may lie almost directly in the path of the Category 4 storm.

“An estimated 18,000 travelers streamed out of the Cancun airport Saturday in advance of the storm, and the terminal may close Sunday as the hurricane draws closer. Some flights to Cancun already have been canceled.

“Improvised shelters were prepared at about 170 schools and community centers to hold local residents who may be forced to flee their homes. Authorities said they had enough food ready to feed 60,000-70,000 people.

“Mexico also launched a large-scale evacuation of offshore oil platforms, ordering 15,000 workers off rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and leaving less than 1,000 attendants behind. The state-owned Pemex oil company said the move included closing 63 wells and halting the production of 480,000 barrels of oil per day.

“Emily is expected to cross over the Yucatan peninsula and re-emerge in the gulf Monday. The hurricane is then expected to cross the gulf and hit Mexico again — this time near the U.S. border — later in the week.

“On its passage through the Caribbean, Emily's winds ravaged hundreds of homes on the island of Grenada, destroyed crops and killed at least one man whose home was buried under a landslide.

“As the storm passed near Jamaica Saturday night, howling wind gusts kicked up waves 8 feet tall and bent palm trees in Kingston, the capital. Torrential rains drenched parts of Jamaica's south coast and spread over the Cayman Islands.

“Downed utility poles and piles of storm debris blocked the seaside highway to Kingston's international airport early Sunday. There were no reports of injuries.

"Mercifully, Jamaica was spared the worst," Land and Environment Minister Dean Peart said.

“Hurricane center meteorologist Dave Roberts said Emily was the strongest storm to form this early in the Atlantic season since record-keeping began in 1860.

“Authorities already evacuated some tourists from the mainland resorts of Tulum and Playa de Carmen, also south of Cancun, in some cases sending them as far away as Valladolid, a Yucatan city 100 miles inland.

“About 1,800 people were evacuated from the islands of Contoy and Holbox, just off the coast.

“Farther south, the government of Belize issued a tropical storm watch for the coast from Belize City northward to the Mexico border. In the capital, boats were being tied down or taken up river.

“About 70 percent of the tourists being relocated in Mexico are foreigners; the evacuees will be given free food and lodging at shelters in convention centers or ballrooms, said Jesus Almaguer, president of the Cancun Hotel Association.

"It would be inhuman to charge them," he said.

“In the seaside fishing village of Port Royal, on a peninsula just south of Jamaica's capital, Kingston, storm-weary locals again boarded up windows and tied down metal roofs but said they were staying put.

"Last week it was Dennis, now it's Emily. What's next, Franklin?" Gordon Murphy, 39, joked as his 2-year-old son played at his feet.

"If I'm going to die, it's to going to be right here," he said.

“Just outside Kingston, swells up to two and a half metres pounded the shore, tossing rocks, sands and tree branches onto the seaside road leading to the international airport.

“Nearby, surfers gathered before majestic waves. "The waves are about (five to six metres) and really coming in heavily. Surfers have been out there since six o'clock this morning," musician Billy Mystic told AP Television News.

“In the nearby seaside town of Bull Bay, residents took cover indoors as frothy surf slapped and climbed the shore, threatening several homes, some still in ruins from Hurricane Ivan last year.

"I'm getting really sick of this," said Lisa Henry, 39, whose two-bedroom home was flooded by nearly a metre of water by Dennis last week.

“Emily has unleashed heavy surf, gusty winds and torrential rains that carry the possibility of life-threatening mudslides. The hurricane centre also warned people to beware of abnormal tides with large and dangerous battering waves.

“Last year, three catastrophic hurricanes - Frances, Ivan and Jeanne - tore through the Caribbean with a collective ferocity not seen in years, causing hundreds of deaths and billions of dollars in damage.

“Forecasters have predicted up to 15 Atlantic tropical storms this year, including three to five major hurricanes. The hurricane season began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.”

Emily is still maintaining the same course and speed it has for a couple of days now. With a current position of 19.0 North by 84.3 West, Emily is a High Category 4 Hurricane whose eye is expected to first make landfall very near Tulum / Akumal by the very early hours of tomorrow morning, Monday, 18 July 2005. As of 10:00AM CDT Today, 17 July, 2005, Emily was a little over 200 miles from Tulum. They will need everyone’s prayers. They are in mine and I'll make lots for them.

The Costa Maya doesn't yet show any effect from Emily.

 
Visit Portillas.com at http://www.portillas.com

Since it appears at this time my home, the Costa Maya, will be spared the fury of Emily, I will focus on helping the people of the northern Yucatan. They most likely will not be anywhere near as fortunate as I think we will be. For the past couple of days I have believed Emily would lay her eye on Tulum. Though it is still many hours until landfall, it seems Tulum will be her target.

As a general rule the northeast quadrant of a hurricane is the “dirtiest” part of the storm. That is, areas in the dirty part’s path experience the most forceful winds, spawned tornados, and worst of all, the storm surge. It appears Tulum, Puerto Aventuras, Playa del Carmen, Cozumel, Puerto Morelos, Isla Mujeres and Cancun will be in extreme danger of extensive damage and loss of life. My prayers are that their hearts be spared the pain and suffering that comes with the loss of one’s home and/or a friend or loved one. Please God, keep their losses at a minimum.

From the 10:00PM CDT position report for Emily on 17 July, 2005 the eye of the storm is about 579 miles (932 km) away from Tulum. If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 16 mph and directly towards Tulum, it will take around 36.2 hours (1.5 days) to reach Tulum. Given the current wind field ( guessing at 150 miles from the center), tropical storm winds will be felt in 26.8 hours (1.1 days). If indeed nothing major changes, the Riviera Maya will be a pretty rough place to be at sunrise Monday. I doubt anyone in the area will be able to sleep through Sunday night because the wind should start getting violent around 10:00PM.

There is an animated infrared satellite image available from Intellicast called HIRES. It is updated about every thirty minutes. Since it is time to watch such a relatively small area, I recommend you click this link: CLICK HERE TO SEE WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH EMILY Be certain you refresh your browser every quarter hour or so to stay current on exactly where Emily is and where she is going. If for some reason, there is a directional change you will see it there first.

Nobody along the Yucatan is completely out of the woods yet nor is anybody absolutely condemned for destruction yet. Hurricanes remain unpredictable. May God bless each and everyone who will be affected by hurricane Emily.

Sincerely,

Cliff Evans

Visit Portillas.com

From the 5:30PM position reports and forecasts I used the http://www.stormcarib.com distance tools also linked at the bottom of http://www.portillas.com (which also includes other tropical weather product links) to calculate the following:

Results for 18.2285N, 87.84166W (Xcalak):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 20.1N, 87.0W or about 141.5 miles (227.7 km) from Xcalak. The estimated time of when the eye will be at that CPA location is in about 33.5 hours.

The eye of the storm is about 605 miles (973 km) away from Xcalak. If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 16 kt and directly towards Xcalak, it would take around 32.8 hours (1.4 days) to reach Xcalak. Given the current wind field (140 nm or 161.1 miles from the center), tropical storm winds will be felt in 24.1 hours (1.0 days).

I expect Cancun to get the nastiest part of Emily at around 4:00 to 5:00AM Monday, 18 July 2005. Conditions most likely will begin to diminish rapidly starting around noon tomorrow, Sunday, 17 July 2005.

The following report was just issued by the NHC:

"AMZ082-170330-

NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W

530 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

....HURRICANE WARNING...

..TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WINDS

WITHIN 140 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW

QUADRANT...AND 110 NM NW QUADRANT...WITH HIGHEST WINDS 135 KT

GUSTS TO 165 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE...125 NM

SE...90 NM SW...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANTS...WITH HIGHEST SEAS 45

TO 50 FT. ELSEWHERE WIND 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. NUMEROUS

SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM

ELSEWHERE OF EMILY.

..SUN NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WINDS WITHIN 140 NM

NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 110 NM

NW QUADRANT...WITH HIGHEST WINDS 125 KT GUSTS TO 155 KT. SEAS 12

FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE...125 NM SE...90 NM SW...AND 150

NM NW QUADRANTS...WITH HIGHEST SEAS 45 TO 50 FT. SEAS SUBSIDING

TO 12 TO 16 FT LATE. ELSEWHERE W OF 80W SE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.

SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. E OF 80W E TO SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. 

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180

NM ELSEWHERE OF EMILY.

..MON AND MON NIGHT...N OF 20N W OF 86W TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR

GREATER WINDS EARLY...BECOMING E TO SE 20 TO 25 KT N OF 18N W OF

86W BY MON AFTERNOON...AND 15 TO 20 KT MON NIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 16

FT SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON AND TO 5 TO 8 FT

MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE W OF 82W E TO SE WINDS 20 KT...DECREASING

TO 15 TO 20 KT MON NIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. S OF 18N E OF 82W E

WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. N OF 18N E OF 82W E TO SE

WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SQUALLS

NW PART MON MORNING SHIFTING W OF AREA BY AFTERNOON.

..TUE...S OF 18N E OF 82W E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 8 FT. S OF 18N

W OF 82W E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL. N

OF 18N E TO SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT...EXCEPT 3 TO 4 FT

NEAR COAST OF CUBA."

One note of particular interest to me is the revised southwest quadrant conditions stated to extend from the eye of only 60nm. If this does indeed happen, it would be great news for the Costa Maya. We could possibly be spared. Again these are only forecasts and Emily is almost a category five storm. She can do whatever she wants without regard to reason or logic. She makes her own weather.

Let’s hope for the best.

Hi Gert,

I am sending news from Cozumel regarding the current status on island as they prepare for Hurricane Emily that I was hoping you could post to the Caribbean Hurricane Network site.  Please find the press statement from the island below.

Thank you for helping us get the word out from the island during this urgent time.  

Please let me know if you should have any questions on this. 

Best Regards,

Jeanette Chin

YPB&R

Jeanette_chin at ypbr.com

407-838-1807

COZUMEL, MEXICO, prepares foR hurricane Emily

July 16, 2005 (3:00 PM)  – As forecasted by the National Weather Service, Hurricane Emily is expected to move through Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula late Sunday evening (July 17).  At this time, the island of Cozumel is on orange alert and has initiated on-island preparations for the storm’s arrival.  However, contrary to earlier reports, no official evacuation has been issued.

According to Gaston Cantarell Diaz, president of the Cozumel Hotel Association, the island is well equipped for the storm and prepared to accommodate all tourists on island.

 “All of the necessary preparations are in place to ensure the safety of both our residents and visitors, and should it become necessary, we are well-equipped to accommodate travelers at several emergency shelters throughout downtown Cozumel,” he said.

If weather conditions continue:

·         The Cozumel airport is expected to suspend operation tomorrow if winds exceed 25 knots.    

·         All ferry services and cruise ships to the island will suspend operation at 6:00 p.m. CST Saturday, July 16.                              

·         Tourists on island were provided the option of remaining in Cozumel or leaving the island in advance of the storm. 

·         For those travelers who elected to remain on island, resorts have safety shelters located on property and have enough resources, including food and water, to care for guests up to 15 days.

·         If necessary, the Cozumel Convention Center will serve as a back-up shelter specifically for visiting tourists and can accommodate up to 2,000 individuals.

·         More than 500 additional resort rooms have been designated to serve as storm shelter for residents and guests, if necessary.

·         Cozumel resorts and hotels will have updates on the storm available at each hotel’s front desk.  Concerned friends and family members of guests currently on island can contact the hotels directly for information as well.  Individual hotel listings and contact information can be located at www.islacozumel.com.mx

·         Major tour operators are providing travelers with the option to rebook there current travel arrangements for the end of July and August. 

·         Additional updates from the island will be available at www.visitmexico.com.  

For more information, please contact YPB&R Public Relations:

Noel Perkins                                     Jeanette Chin

(407) 838-1797 (office)                      (407) 838-1807 (office)

(407) 353-0222 (wireless)                 (407) 963-5139 (wireless)

Jeanette Chin 
Senior Account Executive
YPB&R
Yesawich, Pepperdine, Brown & Russell
423 South Keller Road, Suite 100
Orlando, FL 32810
P: 407.838.1807
F: 407.875.1115
E: Jeanette_Chin at ypbr.com
W: http://www.ypbr.com

"The information contained in this electronic mail is confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity named above. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any reproduction, transmittal or other dissemination of this message is strictly prohibited."

After the 11:00AM EST forecasts the results for 18.2285N, 87.84166W Xcalak, Q Roo Mexico I calculated these projections using the tools from this website, http://www.stormcarib.com :

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 20.2N, 86.9W or about 149.3 miles (240.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the eye will be at that location is in about 38.6 hours.

[img]http://www.portillas.com/images/Closer.jpg[/img]

About the only thing that seems to have changed is the timing of the worst of it here. As near as I can figure, we should get the worst of it around 2 or 3 in the morning Monday. Emily is still a Category 4 hurricane but is on the verge of being a Category 5.

The eye of the storm is about 710 miles (1143 km) away from Xcalak. If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 18 mph and directly towards me, it will take around 39.5 hours (1.6 days) to reach here. Given the current wind field (150 miles from the center), tropical storm winds will be felt here in 31.1 hours (1.3 days).

By noon Sunday, I'd recommend everybody along the Yucatan coast to be ready to make a decision to leave. In the worst case scenario, that could be the last chance to do so safely. Good luck and take care all!

Cliff

Visit Portillas.com at http://www.portillas.com

Hi Gert:

 I don’t know if you remember me. I wrote you last year. Luckily, we had no tropical stuff near Xcalak last year. I have posted the following on our local message boards:

“I am becoming increasingly concerned about a possible storm surge, the most dangerous part of a hurricane. No matter where the eye of the storm goes, this giant wave could present a problem for anybody along the coast of the Yucatan. In the next 24 hours, there is predicted to be a 45 foot wave ahead of Emily. I have put the wind and wave height prediction map for July 16, 2005, (tomorrow at the time of this writing) on my home page, http://www.portillas.com. I am not saying it is time to panic and flee. This storm is still over 1,100 miles away and if it heads straight for us will only make another 450 miles progress in the next 24 hours. What I am saying is the surge must also be watched by anyone along the coast of the Yucatan. The surge could be deadly even if the storm skirts us. The National Hurricane Center publishes these wind and wave prediction maps on their website. You can click on the map at Portillas.com or the text below it to go directly to their site for updated information in case I am unable to update. Be smart and most of all, be safe!”

I haven’t noticed mention of this at stormcarib.com. I thought you might consider reminding your folks of this.

Sincerely,

Cliff Evans