Caribbean Hurricane Network - 2 0 2 5  Season -
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Weather discussions by Gert & Dave during the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The homepage with the links to local reports from the islands, latest satellite image, current weather outlook can be found here.

Monday, June 16, 2025 11:54AM PDT - Updated hurricane forecast, part 2

I couldn't quite find the island-specific impact probabilities when I wrote my update last week. But now I did find it here. Below I summarized the probability of at least one major hurricane moving within 50 miles for the Caribbean islands, compared to the long term average (1880-2000). Note that these probabilities are heavily biased by island/region area, for example the Bahamas, being a large region, will have a higher chance of a direct hit. Even though your probability is low, it doesn't mean you are out of the woods. Just like last year, Grenada has only 1% probability, but it did get hit last year with monster storm Beryl. So even if your chances are low, there is still a chance! Stay safe this season! It really helps if you are prepared! -Gert

Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles

Wednesday, June 11, 2025 09:25AM PDT - Updated hurricane forecast

Phil Klotzbach and his team at Colorado State University issued their June update of the 2025 hurricane activity forecast. They still expect an above average season. Similar to the April forecast they expect 17 tropical storms (14.4 is normal), of which 9 become hurricanes (7.2 is normal) and 4 major hurricanes (3.2 is normal). The accumulated cyclone energy index (more or less a measure of the sum of each storm's daily power) is 155 (123 is normal). There is a 56% chance that at least one major hurricane will travel through the Caribbean region (a large area, long term average is 47%).

The main reasons for this are above average sea surface temperatures and neutral ENSO conditions (El Nino/La Nina). Sea surface temperatures are not as extreme as last year, when the trade winds were not as strong as normal causing less mixing of the water column, which heated up the surface more. The weaker trade winds were due to the weaker Azores High, a more or less permanent high pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean. This year the trade winds are back, but sea surface temperatures are still above normal mainly due to human-induced climate change.

Currently in the Atlantic all is relatively quiet with no development expected in the next week. This is in contrast with the eastern Pacific, where they had already 3 storms. We just have to cope with Saharan dust and a lot of sargassum :-(. We know the storms will come, so now is a good time to get ready! Check your hurricane shutters, buy some extra canned food and water, etc. You know what to do, it is not your first time! Stay safe! -Gert

Sunday, June 1, 2025 09:44AM PDT - 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts

It is June 1st again. Official start of the hurricane season. The forecasts by NOAA, Tropical Storm Risk and Colorado State all indicate an above average season. Mainly due to above normal sea surface temperature (ocean's heat is the hurricane's energy source) which is not surprising due to the human-induced climate change. Also, there doesn't seem to be an El Nino on the horizon, which normally leads to less hurricanes, with mostly neutral ENSO conditions forecasted throughout the season.

Below the names of this season. This is a list that is repeated every 6 years. Notable hurricane names are retired. New name on this list is Dexter, that replaced Dorian, a horrific hurricane that hit the Bahamas in 2019, I still remember well.

Name         Pronunciation       Name         Pronunciation
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Andrea        AN-dree uh         Lorenzo       loh-REN-zoh
Barry         BAIR-ree           Melissa       meh-LIH-suh
Chantal       shahn-TAHL         Nestor        NES-tor
Dexter        DEHK-ster          Olga          OAL-guh
Erin          AIR-rin            Pablo         PAHB-lo
Fernand       fair-NAHN          Rebekah       reh-BEH-kuh
Gabrielle     ga-bree-ELL        Sebastien     se-BAS-tee-en
Humberto      oom-BAIR-toh       Tanya         TAHN-yuh
Imelda        ee-MEHL-dah        Van           van
Jerry         JEHR-ee            Wendy         WEN-dee
Karen         KAIR-ren

This is the 30th year that we are covering it! I started in 1996, before blogging was a word, or Google even existed! I never expected to still be doing this 30 years later with my friend Dave. This sometimes extremely busy website is hosted on 2 dedicated servers. They don't come cheap. So please, consider donating to keep the website going. Now you can use Venmo and Stripe as well. I lost my biggest donor this year, so it is even more needed.

Dave and I will give you Caribbean focused information again this season. We are ready. Hope the season won't be too bad, but we all know, it only takes one! Like Dave wrote yesterday, "Let's be prepared and be safe starting off." Hope everyone is ready. I also hope that the reckless chainsaw cuts by the US government to NOAA and FEMA won't affect their readiness and that, to name just a few possible effects, the Hurricane Hunters can still fly their missions, the National Hurricane Center still has the manpower to run and interpret model forecasts, and aid will still flow where it will be needed. -Gert

Saturday, May 31, 2025 18:42PM EDT - Already?

Good evening!

Welcome back to another edition of the Atlantic Hurricane Season's official start date of tomorrow, June 1st. Wow, the last 6 months of holidays and spring sure went fast.

The Pacific season, which starts mid May, already has had their first named system, TS Alvin. As he degrades on his northward trek, he will be bringing a lot of moisture to the desert southwest helping alleviate some drought stricken areas while causing some issues down the road later on.

Meanwhile, closer to home here in the Atlantic, the forecasts are for an above average season again. Time will tell though as it's a 6 month forecast and as stated back about 20 years ago, it only takes one. While nothing has formed in the GM or the Atlantic Basin in the month of May, (not unusual) be wary of months to come. Please get prepared if you haven't started already and do not wait until a named storm is on its way to your locale. Long lines, higher prices and shortness of time will be problematic if you wait till the last minute. Not to mention you might not get what you need which you should have purchased a month ago preparation wise.

Currently while the SST (sea surface temperatures) are warm enough to sustain a tropical system, the other factors say no way jose. There are hostile upper level winds wind shearing everything east of the Windwards and 1/8 of the Saharan Desert it seems is in the air over the whole Atlantic hurricane basin preventing practically any imminent or in the near future tropical development.

We all know what we are looking forward to. Let's be prepared and be safe starting off.

Dave

Friday, April 4, 2025 16:25PM PDT - Another active season?

Last year an extremely active season was forecasted, in the end we had 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes of which 5 were major hurricanes. Quite active, but not as extreme as feared. There were 2 category 5 hurricanes (Beryl and Mylton), something that doesn't happen that often. Beryl was by far the most unusual, for all the wrong reasons, very early in the season, formed far east in the Atlantic, went pretty far south, fast intensification, etc... Overall Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the season was 162 (123 is 'normal'). Three names were retired, Beryl (no surprise), Helene and Milton. In 2030 they will be replaced with Brianna, Holly and Miguel.

This year might be a repeat... A few days ago the forecasters at Colorado State issued their first seasonal forecast. The team let by Phil Klotzbach anticipates 17 named storms (14.4 is normal), 9 hurricanes (7.2 is normal) of which 4 might become major ones (3.2 is normal), with an overall ACE value of 155 (26% above average). The probability for at least one major hurricane traveling through the Caribbean (a big area) is 56% (average is 47%).

The main reasons for the above normal season is the absence of El Nino conditions, above normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic (though not as crazy warm as last year). One note about this early forecast, this early season forecast doesn't have much 'skill', so don't get too anxious about it. But as we all know, it only takes one..., but hopefully we won't have a big one like Beryl last year and that we have a lot of 'fish' storms. We all know that you can reduce your risk of harm by preparations. Now would be a good time to check your hurricane shutters or invest in hurricane proof glass, etc. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.