Caribbean Hurricane Network- 2 0 0 6 Season - |
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- - - 2006 Season - - - |
Weather discussions by Gert & Dave during the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The homepage with the links to local reports from the islands, latest satellite image, current weather outlook can be found here.
The forecast calls for 23 (!) named stormes (14.4 is normal), of which 11 are expected to reach hurricane strength (7.2 is normal) and 5 reach major hurricanes status (3.2 is normal). This is the highest number of storms ever forecasted by Colorado State in April...
The major drivers are La Nina and high sea surface temperatures. Although we are still in an El Nino, it is expected to fade in the next few weeks, and transform to La Nina conditions at the peak of hurricane season. During a La Nina vertical wind shear is lower in the Atlantic, making it easier for tropical storms to develop and become stronger. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are currently at record levels, see for example the last plot on the my satellite imagery page (yellow/orange means above normal, it looks like 1-2° Celcius or more above normal!). And it is expected to stay above normal, giving more fuel to hurricanes...
Normally the April forecast doesn't have much skill, but this year they are more confident that there will indeed be an active season. It is hard to argue otherwise, with record sea surface temperatures and an La Nino, two of the main drivers in hurricane activity...
What does it mean for the Caribbean... For the Caribbean region the probability of at least one major hurricane tracking through the region (a big area) is 66% (normal is 47%, last year it was 49%). In the table below I summarized the chance of a major hurricane moving within 50 miles of a specific Caribbean island/country compared to the long term average (1880-2020) (source: https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html). Note that some of the numbers are biased by area, for example The Bahamas. In any case, just one big storm in your backyard is more than enough. It seems that this is the season that you invest in some good hurricane protection.... Preparation will be key this season.
A good writeup can also be found on Jeff Masters' Eye on the Storm blog at Yale Climate Connections. It does not really make you happy reading it... -Gert
Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles |
Mon, 20 Mar 2006 17:14:05 -0400 (AST) - quiet
Good afternoon! I know it has been a while since I posted last; the last time was from holiday in the UK over Christmas and New Years re: ZETA! I want you to know I have not been remiss in postings even though it is not hurricane season. My wife Barbara took sick while on holiday in the UK and last week passed away at the untimely age of 36 here at home in the US Virgin Islands. For locals, a celebration of life will be held at Betsy's in Frenchtown at 7 pm this Wednesday. When her ashes arrive back from Puerto Rico in a few weeks, a sea ceremony will be held TBA. While it's hard to concentrate at the moment on the weather, the timing of the season has made it easier. It's tropically, seasonally and, climatologicaly speaking, dry as it has been for 15 out of the 16 years I have been here. Brown is showing up on the foliage and water trucks are everywhere! the good aspect is the seas and winds have started to quiet and a boaters paradise is in store this week with light to steady winds and quiet seas. Visibility has improved for snorkelers and scuba divers as the winds and swells of early March have started to retreat although this does not mean for good! With a water temp still around 78, it's way better than the alternatives up north, especially in the West and Mid-West! Dave
Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.
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