>> >> Subject: Caribbean Category 5 hurricanes: The Time is Ripe >> From: mike1@nospam.visi.com (Michael-Schneider.) >> Date: 1997/06/06 >> Message-Id: >> Newsgroups: bit.listserv.wx-talk,sci.geo.meteorology >> [More Headers] >> >> This post concerns what I call "long-track, WNW-moving Caribbean >> hurricanes", which is a Cape Verde disturbance originated storm which >> tracks WNW through the Caribbean. These storms are historically the most >> powerful of Atlantic basin hurricanes, large in areal coverage, and more >> often than not reach category 5 status provided that have the whole >> length of the Caribbean at their disposal. Upon reaching cat 5 status, >> they with few exceptions also strike land *at cat 5 status*. Such storms >> tend to be (1) rare, but (2) cluster. This clustering offers the >> possibility of predicting them. >> >> snip >> >> With notable exceptions, tropical storms and hurricanes moving W or >> WNW at low lattitude have been "deflected" NW around the longitude of >> the Lesser Antilles or Haiti at the farthest (they might then hit the >> eastern US, or shank west again and enter the Gulf by passing over >> Florida). Those which do not deflect usually weaken and die in the >> central Caribbean. Only a couple times in any given decade are >> conditions apparantly right for storms to barrel straight through the >> central Caribbean. >> An examination of the busy 1995 season in particular shows this in >> stark detail. Hurricane tracks snake-trail over virtually every section >> of the Atlantic - except the central Carribean. The Gulf Coast was, as >> it has been for a decade, spared anything *truly* menacing coming up the >> Camille/Fredrick route out of the Caribbean (excepting late-season >> odd-ball storms like Opal). >> >> snip >> >> 1988 featured three westward or WNW-ward moving long-track tropical >> systems in the Caribbean which did not recurve at or before 70west. The >> average is about one per year; the *mean*, however, is none; since >> Caribbean long-trackers tend to cluster. Every year since 1964 which has >> had two or more long-track WNW-moving Caribbean storms has also seen one >> of them reach cat 5. >> Since 1988, *no* hurricane has taken a long-track WNW path through >> the central Caribbean (I do not count "dirty-feet" storms: systems which >>skirt the northern South America northern coast and head due west usually into >>Nicaragua. Joan is an example - and she occured in 1988, too, anyway.) >> >> snip >> >> A pattern? >> >> In 1988, three tropical systems took a long-track WNW trip over the >> Greater Antilles or central Carribean without recurving prior to 75W). >> One was a cat 5 (Gilbert). >> >> (8/9 years) >> >> In 1980, Allen, the first storm & a cat 5, did so. >> In 1979, three tropical systems did so, one a cat 5 (David). >> >> (8/9 years) >> >> In 1971, three did, including a cat 5 (Edith). >> >> (7/8 years) >> >> In 1964, one did so, a cat 5 (Cleo). >> In 1963, two did so >> >> (8/9 years) >> >> In 1955, two did so, including a cat 5 (Janet). >> >> * * * >> >> >>>>Every cat 5 hurricane named above has struck land, and did so at >> cat 5 status (exception of Allen.)<<<< >> >> There are other years with notable peaks in WNW-moving Caribbean >> long-trackers, but the above years seem to fit an 8/9 year pattern. >> >> And 1997 is, of course, nine years after 1988. >> >> * * * >> >> In Dr. Gray's April forecast (he) lists five prior "analog" years for >> comparison: 1969, 1964, 1951, 1980, and 1961 (in decreasing order of >> global condition similarity). >> >> 1969: Two Caribbean storms: Camille is a "west end boy" (storm that >> forms in W. Caribbean) that strikes land at cat 5 status. Another hits >> Central America via moving WNW after formation over the Lesser Antilles. >> 1964: (See above) >> 1951: two long-track Caribbean cat 4s; two other "west-end boys". Cat >> 5 in open Atlantic. >> 1980: (see above) >> 1961: Two long-trackers, one a cat 5 which strikes land (Carla), also >> an odd-ball November west-end boy (which *also* strikes land as a cat >> 5). >> >> * * * * * * * * >> >> With Dr Gray'S analysis, and the apparant trend in mind, I won't >> hedge on the following predition: Among other assorted tropical >> cyclones, we will see at least two long-track WNW-moving intense >> hurricanes in the Caribbean, one of which will strike land *as* a >> Category 5. It has a 50% chance of striking the United States gulf coast >> (Texas to Mississippi) at peak intensity.