Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Hanna, Hurricane Ike
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES-12 Hurricane Sector - http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov

GOES-12 Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (07:15 UTC, 54 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Saturday, September 6, 2008 20:18PM PDT - Pleas for Help Board
A little early for this, but I have a 'Pleas for Help' forum where people can exchange information. In the past it has proven to be a great medium for connecting people watching this storm off-island. It feels a lot better when you are in contact with people who are in exactly the same stressful stituation as you are... Find it at: help.stormcarib.com. I will create a dedicated TCI forum if the need is there, hopefully not. If you are confused with where exactly is Provo (Providenciales officially), Grand Turk, ... there is a really nice map on Wikipedia. Hoping for the best... -Gert

Saturday, September 6, 2008 14:03PM PDT - Cat 4
Ike is about to bear down on the Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) and just now Ike has been upgraded to a Category Four (Extreme) Hurricane... Sustained winds are now 135mph! The only good thing is that it is moving relatively fast at 15mph so it won't hang around like Hanna did. So far it looks like these islands won't get the eye, but it will be close. On the other hand, Inagua (Bahamas, that 'big island southwest of TCI', see map of Bahamas) will get the eye. Wikipedia tells me that the population of Great Inagua is 969, with the capital Mattew Town in the southwestern part of the island. Hope we hear some good news from our hurricane correspondents on the TCI and Bahamas soon after the storm has passed... Further ahead..., Ike goes more way more south then earlier forecasted, with the eye passing over almost the full lenght of Cuba. That should weaken Ike a lot, but when it comes over the ocean again it will quickly strengthen. The good news is that it looks like now Ike's eye should stay over 100 miles away from the Florida Keys. Use the tools above to calculate how far it is or how close it can get. Stay safe! -Gert

Good morning!

The treadmill of the 2008 hurricane season just keeps running on with TS Hanna trying to escape a fast closing hurricane Ike and poor TS Josephine lagging far behind but still showing some promise this morning. Meanwhile, another contender is exiting the African coast.

The African continent, which has rapidly been firing salvos for the last few weeks, appears to have temporarily run out of ammunition after this last wave exits today. Firing blanks is not a bad thing, in this case! Satellite imagery indicates a lack of strong wave action until you reach over halfway across so a lull at the starting line is anticipated but won't last long.

TS Josephine is no quitter but has been taking blows right and left. A bit more impressive this morning on satellite imagery, she still stands the chance of being torn apart but Bermudians should still pay attention as she moves WNW.

TS Hanna is honking up the east coast and now DC and NYC will get a taste of what we have to deal with here in the Caribbean as they are all likely to feel Hanna's TS force winds due to her forward speed around 22 mph. While the rains have been beneficial to Georgia and the Carolina's, the storm surge expected from Hanna along the northeast coast will not be.

Hurricane Ike. Once again, another system proving forecasting as an inexact science. Wind shear has taken it's toll but Ike is still a formidable storm and once the wind shear relaxes after the weekend is over, Ike will likely resurrect himself to his former major hurricane status. This will be a proverbial caged lion once in the Gulf of Mexico as there is no way out but over land and probably in areas already affected this year.

Of more immediate concern is Ike's potential impacts on the Bahama's, Turks and Caicos, the DR and Haiti. The giant island of twin nations Haiti and the Dominican Republic ARE this years hurricane magnets! While the fatality count is officially below 200, there are many more, especially in Haiti with Ike about to provide a nasty blow to the chin of an already glass-chinned opponent. Please pray for these people as many do not have anything left already but their lives from Hanna's and Gustav's earlier attacks.

Cuba and the Florida Keys are next with the mountains of Cuba to have a significant impact on Ike's strength but the Keys are expected to take a strong blow from Ike with storm surge and wind damage probably highest in the upper Keys due to Ike's proximity. Still, all of the Keys are under mandatory evac orders as Ike has deadly potential there as well.

Once in the Gulf. it's Texas or Florida as it stands now. Where exactly is very important but whats' more important is that you are prepared.

Stay safe!

Dave

Friday, September 5, 2008 08:43AM PDT - We don't like Ike
Unfortunately, as forecasted, Ike has indeed started to move a bit more south of due west... Actually, the current forecast takes Ike even more south then earlier. It might even sneak in between Cuba and Florida, although that is still very uncertain because it is so far away... In any cast, the Turks and Caicos and southern Bahamas should prepare for a direct hit by a major hurricane! Although Ike has weakened a bit; the eye has almost disappeared on satellite imagery due to wind shear, conditions should become more favorable again for strengthening. Not good. I hate to have to do this again, but below I listed the Closest Point of Approach (CPA) for many of the islands in its path. Note that I don't include Florida, except Key West. I have however listed latitude/longitude info on many cities in Florida so you can calculate the CPA yourself, as it looks right now it is expected to pass very close by Miami. Also, check out the other 'Ike tools' options like the uncertainty cone, and model spaghetti plots (new feature, see below, all these are pop-ups, and can be closed quickly by clicking anywhere on the image). Don't focus on the track alone, a hurricane is not a point and forecasts beyond 3 days out are prone to large error. At least Josephine is getting weaker and we don't really have to worry about that one anymore.
Finally, let's not forget what is going on in Haiti. Unfortunately I don't have too many hurricane contacts in Haiti, but it is very sad if you read the news stories. The death toll now is at 136, but expected to rise. It is very hard to get food and water to the people affected. "Large areas of Gonaives were still deluged by floodwater on Friday and up to 70 per cent of its 300,000 residents have been without water or food since the storm hit on Monday." Not good. -Gert

Thursday, September 4, 2008 15:19PM PDT - Spaghetti plots
I just added a new feature to the 'tools' section above: model plots. The official forecast track as issued by the National Hurricane Center is based on several different models. If a storm is easy to model they usually quite agree, if there is more uncertainty they can diverge quite a bit. These so-called 'spaghetti plots' therefore more or less represent how confident the NHC is in their own 'official' forecast track. Clicking on the 'models' link above gives you a pop-up window of the spaghetti plot. Clicking anywhere on the plot closes it again, just like with the uncertainty cone images. The image credit goes to South Florida Water Management District website. Hope this will make you more aware how hard it actually is to predict where a hurricane is actually going, esp. a few days away... However, there is an excellent statement below these images: "If anything on this graphic causes confusion, ignore the entire product." Actually, I should use this phrase evertime I write something :-) -Gert.

Thursday, September 4, 2008 08:44AM PDT - Disaster in Haiti
It does not look good in the Gonaives area of Haiti. Gonaives, the fourth largest city in Haiti, home to about 160,000 people was hard hit during Tropical Storm Jeanne in 2004 as well (2,000 people died in that storm) and the flooding now is apparently just as bad. It is hard to get to the affected area, since according to one of our special hurricane correspondents on Haiti, who flew over the region, the roads into the region are under water. The airstrip is under 8 feet of water as well, further complicating matters. I wish that the media in the US was giving a bit more attention to this region. Esp. since the distance between Miami and Port au Prince (the capital of Haiti) is only 900 miles! More info on the situation on news.google.com. Also, ReliefWeb.int is a good source of info.
Meanwhile, dangerous Category 4 hurricane Ike is still on track. People in Haiti might freak out if rumors start going that a big storm is coming (although it looks like Ike will stay north of them). Right now it is still aiming for the Turks&Caicos and Bahamas. I hope it will curve more to the north before it reaches them. Also, Hanna is finally moving, but still battering some islands in the Bahamas. Josephine still far out there in the Atlantic is still expected to turn north before reaching the islands. Not much fun today. Use the tools above to check how close the storm can get to you, and quickly see if you are in the track forecast 'cone of uncertainty' by clicking on the 3 or 5. Stay safe, Gert

- Updates from the Islands -