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- Hurricane Fred - yes it is a hurricane already!
  • By Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 31 Aug 2015 08:03:41 -0400
Good morning all,

The Low I have mentioned for the last couple of days is no longer on the charts. But looking East I see some 'Towering Cumulus moving in and I can also see the rain dropping from them. The radar confirms we have a clump of showers , heading our way. It is getting darker.

Fred is now a hurricane and looks like it is passing through the Cape Verdes,
 not good for them, but looks OK for us as it travels NW.

Have to send this as my post is getting out of date! Winds gusting and rain on the roof. Have a good day.

Hogan


- Tropical storm Fred
  • By Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 30 Aug 2015 07:24:51 -0400
A tropical wave having just popped off of Africa and has already been named Tropical Storm Fred, after rapidly passing through the Tropical Depression (Six) stage! This is the most Easterly I ever remember seeing a named storm. The only good news for us (in Grenada) is that it already appears to be taking a North-Easterly course. But this looks bad news for the Cape Verdes. Most Storms start just south of the Cape Verdes, but this one has started before reaching them and appears to be heading straight for them. Most models have Fred continuing up into the Atlantic, but some including the NHC seem to have it turning on a more Westerly course (at about 20N) after passing the Cape Verdes.

Plenty of much needed showers over night. The various radar & satellite images show that we are still in an area of showers. The 'low' that I have mentioned is still moving slowly in our general direction and still has a few heavy looking showers associated with it. If it continues on a Westerly path, we may get some rain associated with it tomorrow?

Have a great day

Hogan


- A good downpour
  • By Sally Stalker <stalker at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Sat, 29 Aug 2015 10:41:38 -0400
I awoke to a crash of thunder, pouring rain and a small shivering dog standing 
on my chest.  The farmers will be pleased was my first thought.  I live in an 
area where people farm huge tracts of hillside, mostly laid to peas and sorrel 
.  They have no tools but their cutlass and no access to running water.  These 
big deposits of rain are essential.   The downside for me is that the rain also 
washes away my phone and ergo, my internet.  But as I said before, in the face 
of real misery elsewhere, who am I to  even grind my teeth!    I hope the aid 
to Dominica is alleviating some of the misery.  Nothing will alleviate the 
memories.

The sun is now shining intermittently but it is hazy and dull most of the time. 
The temperature is rising as are the mosquitoes and sand flies.  It is a 
miracle of nature that one teeny fragile insect can enter my house a long way 
from where I sit and head straight for me.....then add a few more little 
insects and "one is not amused!"

Safe weekend.





Sent from my iPad

- Rain over night
  • By Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 29 Aug 2015 07:33:43 -0400
We had a good shower over night and there looks like more to come. The radar shows some more showers, some heavy, approaching Grenada over the next hour or two. The rain seems to be part of a tropical wave about to pass through. Just beyond this wave is the 'Low' I mentioned. It is shown on the synopsis chart as part of a tropical wave and part of a kink in the ITCZ. The satellite imagery shows numerous clouds bubbling up in it. So it looks as if we could have more showers in the next couple of days.

Our thoughts go out to those affected by TS Erika in Dominica. This was 'only' a tropical storm, but it shows what damage the rain from a TS can do. Apparently they had about 12 inches of rain in 24 hours.

We are off to a beach do today, fortunately we will have cover, at Wild Woods, so we are protected from rain or Sun!

All the best

Hogan


- Sad for Dominica..
  • By Sally Stalker <slstalker13 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 28 Aug 2015 17:38:00 -0400
What awful news from Dominica!  Thoughts and prayers go out to you all and hope 
that help is already with you.  
The air has returned to us here in Grenada but the sun remains powerful.  We 
had a very good downpour in the night. "That'll please him wot does in the 
garden" sez II.  But blow me down if I don't find him watering the plants at 
six in the morning. I say nothing, unmanned.
My neighbours to be have now ruptured my mains water pipe and sainted woman 
that I am, I bit my tongue.  After all what is doing without water for a bit 
compared to losing your life, home and happiness.
I know, move over Mother Theresa but joking aside (which is very difficult for 
me), I am deeply affected by the Dominican disaster...there but for a turn of 
the tail or a wiggle of the body, go we.


Sent from my iPad

- Dominica
  • By "Jacqueline Dowden" <jacquie at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Fri, 28 Aug 2015 16:44:53 -0400

So very sad to hear the news and see the photographs and video out of Dominica, a terrible tragedy.  Our thoughts are with you.......

 

Jacquie.


- Back to normal?
  • By Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 28 Aug 2015 07:08:32 -0400
With Erika moving away, the weather returns to normal, well what seems to be normal for this year! There is an Easterly breeze. plenty of bubbly clouds, but only a few scattered showers visible on the radar.

There is a weak tropical wave that may bring a bit of rain over the weekend, I stress MAY. Beyond that there is the 'LOW' playing with the ITCZ but threatening to break away. This could be another chance for us to get some rain. And way way across the Atlantic, just about to leave West Africa, is another system to watch.

Hogan


- Erika now giving us a nice South-South-Easterly breeze.
  • By Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 08:10:44 -0400
It is enough to rattle our wind chime which is normally out of the normal Easterlies.

NHC have Erika over Antigua, but both satellite and radar images have further South, also Guadeloupe reported 1006mb at 04:00 whereas Antigua reported a low of 1008 at the same time.

Anyway, we had a nice shower over night. But none in our area now.

In the Atlantic, SW of the Cape Verdes, there is a weak 'Low' embedded in the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. NHC have marked it on their synopsis chart, so I it might be worth watching. It is at about 9N 30W.

A last look out:  Sunshine,breeze and hardly a cloud.

Now to go and enjoy the breeze.

Hogan


- All the air is being sucked out of Grenada!
  • By Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 17:44:41 -0400
Hi all,

We have no breeze at all here in Westerhall. Unlike Barbados which is receiving SSW winds of 20 mph. We must just be at the distance where the trade winds are neutralised by the air trying to go towards Erika.

This afternoon we received te clouds that I mentioned this morning. We could see rain out at sea. We could see rain towards Grand Anse and the airport. Also saw Westerhall point and Ft Jeudy get a small sprinkling. But we hardly received any rain at all. We did here some distant rumblings also.

The sea is like a millpond. Should have gone to Spray Bay for a dip!

Have heard from friends in the UK that they have had monsoon like rain in places there today.

Have a good evening.

Hogan


- Now that we are breathing a little easier...
  • By Sally Stalker <stalker at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 11:10:04 -0400
Man, it's hot!  Even at six in the morning as the sun establishes itself and I 
rush into the garden, well shuffle maybe, the heat is building. This is typical 
when storms are around, air is sucked out leaving a blanket of moist 
airlessness. My, am I becoming the little know all   Strangely the night was 
cool.  I think being a weather guru must be very difficult these days!

The red beard around the island grows longer and has changed the sound of the 
waves on the shore to more of a thump than a soothing swoosh.  Not so sweet to 
sleep to at night.

He what does the garden decided not to water the plants.. There's rain coming!  
I look at Chris' forecast, cast my eyes over a cloudless sky and debate a 
fracas...I need to assert myself, be firm, be determined.  So I go and have a 
cup of coffee resisting any temptation.

Only the near islands are in sight, the haze is deep.  Is this Sahara dust?  I 
run my fingers over my desk and am enthralled with the ochre deposit....is it 
Sahara dust or dust from my neighbour's land clearance. Sahara dust is much 
more romantic and tolerable than my neighbour's dust and less irritating.

I have to say I am grateful for the information the weather gurus give me on 
this site and on other sites. Although I trivialise, I mean only to lighten the 
seriousness a little without taking away from the underlying importance of 
knowledgeable information....now I have poured ashes over my head!

Sent from my iPad

- TS Erika continues on path towards Antigua
  • By Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 06:50:31 -0400
Erika, although a tropical storm, looks bigger than Danny, it is due to pass through Antigua about 2am tomorrow. One of it's outer spiral arms has been giving Barbados some rain this morning and hopefully we may get some of these showers today.

The radar and satellite images show some showers moving towards us from the direction of Barbados. But as recently the showers seem to be easing off as they approach us.

There is no breeze this morning, the sea is calm, even mirror like in the bays below me. Out to the East I can see a small shower, but that one is likely to pass to our South. I can also see some rain in the mountains. So it does look like a slight change in the weather. Hope!

Have a nice day.

Hogan


- 98L now topical storm Erika
  • By Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2015 07:21:18 -0400
Good morning all,

It is a beautiful morning, with just a few clouds sitting on top of the mountains. Hardly any breeze and the sea is calm.

Danny disintegrated, just a few remnants left behind.

Now we have TS Erika to watch. It is galloping across the Atlantic at about 20mph. NHC has it passing in the Antigua area, Thursday, still as a tropical storm.

The rain I was hoping for from the tail of Danny has also disappeared. There are just a few very small showers between us and Barbados, travelling in our direction, but diminishing as they come. Maybe a we could get a small shower later in the day, if we are lucky.

Cup of tea time now. Have a nice day.

Hogan


- Danny and it's tail (last para added from previous post).
  • By Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 08:31:42 -0400
Looking at the airport weather for these islands, they are getting rain but not too much wind. Antigua (Being to the North of the storm) is getting slightly more. It has dropped to tropical depression. So the islands should benefit from the rain, but hopefully not much more.

Down here there is hardly a breeze. It is a nice day with few clouds. It looks like it could be a hot day unless the breeze picks up.

98L is still out there and picking up strength. A 90% chance of developing into a cyclone in the next 2 days. It is further north than Danny was at this point in the Atlantic. Most of the models have it going north of the Leewards and up into the Atlantic.

Behind that is another tropical wave, just passing south of the Cape Verdes. This has a 10% chance of developing in the next 24 hours.

The Atlantic tropical wave conveyor belt is in full working order.

Rene, we watched several sailing boats come along the south coast yesterday afternoon. It looks as if the race went well? I bet you are pleased it wasn't today (hardly any wind)?

I would just like to add that 'Danny's tail' I mentioned yesterday seems to have been severed from the main body and has formed a nice cluster of what looks like showers to the east of Trinidad. If they continue, and if they can come a little bit further north, maybe we will get some rain in the next day or so?

Hogan


- Danny just passing through the Dominica/Guadeloupe/Antigua region
  • By Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 08:20:57 -0400
Looking at the airport weather for these islands, they are getting rain but not too much wind. Antigua (Being to the North of the storm) is getting slightly more. It has dropped to tropical depression. So the islands should benefit from the rain, but hopefully not much more.

Down here there is hardly a breeze. It is a nice day with few clouds. It looks like it could be a hot day unless the breeze picks up.

98L is still out there and picking up strength. A 90% chance of developing into a cyclone in the next 2 days. It is further north than Danny was at this point in the Atlantic. Most of the models have it going north of the Leewards and up into the Atlantic.

Behind that is another tropical wave, just passing south of the Cape Verdes. This has a 10% chance of developing in the next 24 hours.

The Atlantic tropical wave conveyor belt is in full working order.

Rene, we watched several sailing boats come along the south coast yesterday afternoon. It looks as if the race went well? I bet you are pleased it wasn't today (hardly any wind)?

Hogan




- Danny moves south, slightly.
  • By Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2015 17:55:19 -0400
Danny seems to be losing it's strength, and it's track has moved slightly south. It now looks like it is heading more towards Dominica/Guadeloupe area.

As I said earlier, Danny has a tail which drops down towards the south west of it, hopefully that will give us some rain later tomorrow, wishful thinking.

Meanwhile 98L is halfway across the Atlantic, all models have it up near Antigua (again) or further north.

Over the last half hour we have heard some deep rumbling. There are no signs of thunder, we were just wondering if anyone else has heard them? The nearest we can see any towering clouds is Venezuela, and that is too far to hear thunder.

Have a good evening.

Hogan



- A lovely morning, but little breeze.
  • By Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2015 07:21:04 -0400
Good morning,

Danny is still on course for Antigua region, as a tropical storm, or less. Hopefully hey will get some of the rain they need without the high winds.

Down here it is a fairly still morning, a few small clouds, very little breeze. No rain to be seen in the Windward islands. Very little decent cloud showing on the satellite images, unless we get a bit from the 'tail' of Danny, which drops south of the tropical storm.

Over the other side of the Atlantic is the next potential storm, it is a bit West of the Cape Verdes, a lot further north than where Danny was at that point in the Atlantic. Most models show it turning north before reaching the Lesser Antilles, but really it is too early to tell. It does look as if Grenada will be safe (hope) from this one (98L). It has a 30% chance of developing in the next 48 hours as it moves west.

Then there is another tropical wave coming off of Africa. That already has a 20% chance of developing into a Cyclone in the next 48 hours (50% in the next 5 days).

Hope you all have a great Sunday. Did the round the Island race go ahead, how is it going, in this slight breeze?

Hogan


- Danny still on course for Antigua as a Tropical Storm
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2015 06:48:36 -0400
Good morning,

The Sun has just risen, it is a beautiful morning, hardly a breeze and very few clouds in the sky. The horizon is a bit hazy, but at least I can see it, unlike the last few days.

Danny has now reached the latitude of Dominica and is still on course for Antigua Monday morning, probably as a tropical storm. Some models have it passing just north of Antigua.

So we in Grenada are looking as if we have missed this one, and hopefully it will just bring some needed rain to the islands up north, and not too much wind to where it passes through. We could do with some rain here, but not likely from Danny

The next tropical wave is just passing the Cape Verdes, so don't put your guard down.

Have a good day.

Hogan


- Danny is following the predicted path.
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 07:47:06 -0400
Danny is still following a path towards the Antigua area, expected landfall Monday morning. It, hopefully, will reduce to tropical storm by then. If it sticks to it's predicted path then we should get little affect this far away, other than (maybe) a slight dropping off of our normal trade winds as it passes north of us, followed by a slight change of wind direction (from SE) after it passes. With a bit of luck we may get he odd shower.

René, please don't base your decision on my forecast, but, it doesn't look too bad for the round the island race, at the moment?

Over the other side of the Atlantic we have another system brewing. It is too early to see what it will do, but NHC are giving it a 5 day forecast of becoming a cyclone. More on this later.

Hogan




- Flash, Bang Crash......
  • From: "Jacqueline Dowden" <jacquie at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 01:21:18 -0400

 

Just had a flash of lightning and really loud crash of thunder along with pouring rain…….. then it stopped!  Rain stopped, no more thunder no more lightning …… yet. 

 

Yep….. that was it.


- Danny now a hurricane.
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 17:54:34 -0400
It is now hurricane Danny. Although it is expected to drop to Tropical storm strength by Sunday before it reaches Antigua (the current landfall target).

And I have no idea what has caused this overcast misty sky. It is not like a normal wave going through.

Hogan


- My word it's hazy...
  • From: Sally Stalker <stalker at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 08:57:40 -0400
Him what does the garden is off this week and "Rawlins"  is here to attack the 
ever encroaching bush, cut down the nuts and advise on the elimination of 
mongooses or is it mongeese?  

Rawlins' cutlass is an extension of his arm and nothing daunts him not even a 
week of total wipe out during Carnival!  So Rawlins attacked the neighbour's 
offensive tree and that's that!  You don't mess with the Irish!

It is very weird weather!  I cannot see the islands not even the island across 
the bay.  I hope it's not cataracts causing everything to look misty..it is 
quite warm but there is a good breeze blowing in from...well blowing in.  
Rawlins is swaying around in his coconut tree at least thirty feet 
up...s'truth!  The Sargassum is piling up on lovely Bathway beach, at this rate 
the Wide Sargasso Sea will have have moved to Grenada!  We are worried for the 
Turtle babies. I wonder why Heads of State do not just organise their nations 
to get out, for a wage and clean the stuff off the beaches instead of having a 
Syposium.  Areas in Grenada like Soubise and Marquis are stifled by the stink 
of the weed.

So Danny is approaching and hopefully the various elements interfere to keep it 
away or kill him off, fingers crossed and I'll keep chewing the gum!  At least 
I have lots of coconut water!



Sent from my iPad

- Danny is struggling with Sahara dust
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 06:37:07 -0400
Good morning,

Danny has just reached 12.1N with 4 days until it reaches the islands. It's still forecast to arrive near Guadeloupe as a tropical storm or hurricane cat 1. It is really struggling with the Sahara dust to it's North & North-East. But the Sahara air is being gobbled up by it. It is still predicted to reach Hurricane force by Saturday and remain so through Monday, then reduce to TS.

It is very hazy here this morning, no sign of any significant rain on the radar. We still have a weak tropical wave passing through, but it doesn't seem to be bringing any rain. We could do with some.

All the best

Hogan of Grenada



- Tropical Storm Danny
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 19 Aug 2015 08:02:32 -0400
Good morning all,

The (what looks like) good news for us in Grenada is the the predicted path of Danny has been moved further north over night. Many of the models take it north of Antigua, but the NHC path is towards Guadeloupe/Antigua region. Let us hope the models saying it will go up into the Atlantic are correct.

Danny is still a tropical storm. The satellite image shows it sucking in the more moist air from the south, but less on it's northern side. I guess the dry Saharan air is slowing it's growth somewhat.

Hopefully, with the storm forecast to go up north and that it will not reach the Antigua area until Monday, the island race can take place over the weekend?

Danny's current position is 11.3N 39.6W

The other tropical wave is almost on us, but does not appear to have any significant rain in it.

Sorry to hear about your problems Sally, and sorry we didn't make it up there.

Hogan of Grenada




- Here we go...
  • From: Sally Stalker <stalker at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Wed, 19 Aug 2015 01:59:42 -0400
Well it couldn't last, could it?  But with the orange alert for Kick 'em Jenny 
and the masses of Sargassum weed, one's mind tended to wander.  So here comes 
the first storm!  Cape Verde is tattooed on my brain.  I will be drawn there 
one day, I know it.  It has great music but sadly it will always be associated 
with trouble.
It has been a traumatic week without the news from Cape Verde.  My soon to be 
neighbour decided to do a bit of bushwhacking, cut down a tree which felled my 
telephone wire, which caused my telephone to catch fire, my modem to jump three 
feet and suffer death pangs leaving me incommunicado for five days.  I bit my 
tongue, I really did, clamped my mouth tight shut and said  nothing rude or 
horrible.  I even surprised myself!  But I did break out in a rash, you just 
can't bottle it up!  I wonder if any of my knee-capping IRA friends are still 
around!
So off to get nerdy things like chewing gum, well if it soothes football 
Managers it should be worth trying.
Hope you all keep safe and well clear of Danny Boy

Sent from my iPad

- Tropical Storm Danny
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 18 Aug 2015 17:24:36 -0400
96L-TD4- TS Danny

Due to reach the area of the Lesser Antilles on Monday (ish). It is still too early to say where, but most models are predicting somewhere north of us, but forecasting is still somewhat guess work.

Just in case, do sensible things like making sure there isn't anything in the gardens that can become an airborne weapon of mass destruction. Get some supplies in. Looks like we will be sharing tinned tuna with the cat!

Don't stock fridges or freezers up, it doesn't last if there is a prolonged outage.

The last I looked, Danny was at 10.9N 37.0W for info Ivan was about 120miles further south than Danny, at this point across the Atlantic. Now everyone in the Lesser Antilles is hoping it doesn't hit them. We want it to go further north, many further north don't want it there. Let us hope it picks up this Sahara dust which will weaken it. Where has that wind shear gone when you need it?

Hogan of Grenada



- 96L has become Tropical Depression 4
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 18 Aug 2015 11:04:20 -0400
NHC ave upgraded 96L to TD4 with it looking as though it will become a Tropical Storm very soon. They are also predicting it will become a hurricane by Friday. The cone of probability is centring at a latitude just north of Barbados. It looks as if it will be be in the area of the lesser Antilles about Monday. The models show a big split as to where it will head, but the most southerly is just north of Grenada (at the moment).


- 96L now 70% in 48 hours
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 18 Aug 2015 05:42:38 -0400
It is also 80% in 5 days. It does appear to have moved slightly further north over night. Now 10.2N. The predicted paths have also shown a slight move to the North, the centre of most predictions is now in the Guadeloupe area in 6-7 days. But there are still a couple of models that have it further south, in our area.

The weekend wave I mentioned earlier, seems to be bubbling up again, with some heavy convection about 400miles East of us. If that continues then it should reach us sometime tomorrow morning (ish). I would like to see a bit of rain.

Hogan of Grenada


- 96L update
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 17 Aug 2015 18:10:48 -0400
Hi,

From what I can see, 96L has started a very slight move in WNW direction. We need to see it move further towards the North. Also the other tropical wave I mentioned this morning seems to have been ripped apart by wind-shear and a bit of help from dry air.

Let us hope that 96L also gets it's top knocked off by wind shear afer it passes 50W. It is currently 9.8N, 32.2W. I really want to see that above 10N by the morning. I know all of us in the Lesser Antilles don't want to welcome 96L, or any other tropical storm. We all would like to see it pass out north of the islands. But for us in Grenada, we need it well north of 12N very soon.

I hear that there is a round the island race this weekend, so we need it to pass well north or disintegrate well before Saturday, let's hope for the latter.

Hogan of Grenada


- 96L still out there.
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 17 Aug 2015 06:45:31 -0400
Good morning all,

Although it (96L) is still given a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the 5 days, the satellite image shows the centre has broken up somewhat over night. It is still moving in a westerly direction. The experts are saying it should meet higher levels of wind shear as it reaches our side of the Atlantic which should stop development. Let us hope they are correct.

Between us and 96L is another tropical wave, which could bring us some rain in about 3 days time. It is about 1000 miles east of us and has some impressive clouds.

Hogan of Grenada


- Well we went from 10 in 48 hours to 50%
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 16 Aug 2015 16:47:31 -0400
96L has now been upgraded to 50% in 48 hours (60% in 5 days). The NHC only took 10 hours to change it from 10% to 50% - maybe they need a new computer?

It is a bit too early to see what path it will take, but early predictions have it travelling due West, with a slight turn north later in the week. It is currently SSW of Cape Verdes, at 10degs North and 28.3W

This looks like the first disturbance we should really keep an eye on.

Hogan of Grenada



- Well I got it wrong for Friday
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 16 Aug 2015 05:00:46 -0400
Good morning Grenada,

In my last post I predicted heavy rain and possibly thunderstorms in the afternoon. Well, around 2pm the skies blackened and we left the beach. But nothing happened. When I looked at the radar & satellite images, the big blob of rain arrived on our doorstep, then just disappeared! Some rain appeared further north, but no where near as much as I thought would happen, nor to the point what NHC predicted.

Now, way over the other side of the Atlantic, just south of the Cape Verdes is 96L, It only has about 10% chance of developing in the next 48 hours, but it does have some impressive clouds. It is a week away, but worth watching.

I hope you all enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Hogan of Grenada


- The next tropical wave approaching.
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 14 Aug 2015 07:06:41 -0400
Good morning,

It appears we have another tropical wave approaching. There seems to be some heavy showers associated with this one. NHC says we, in the Windward islands, can expect some some heavy showers and thunderstorms this evening. Looking at the radar and satellite images, I would put it earlier than that, more like this afternoon.

There is a large blip showing on both Trinidad and Martinique radar. It is currently approaching just north of Tobago. Plus many scattered showers in a line up just east of the Lesser Antilles. Barbados has already had some.

The Atlantic still remains clear of any nasty blobs, so far. I hope it stays that way.

Have a great day.

Hogan of Grenada


- So what weather for the parade?
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 11 Aug 2015 10:43:11 -0400
I have many people asking what I think about the weather for carnival? One of those difficult forecasts. We are in an area of a tropical wave. There are showers in the vicinity, but most appear to be passing to the north of us. But we could still pick up a shower at any time. The radar shows a relatively dry area out to our east, so I am hoping that it will remain fairly dry for the parade. I must stress HOPING. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has kinked up to our latitude according to the synopsis chart, so this could bring some heavier showers, hopefully much later today or overnight.

Let us hope for a dry parade. We will be there. We have had a sneak preview of some costumes and they look really nice. Hope they don't get wet.

Hogan of Grenada




- Tropical wave approaching.
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 09 Aug 2015 18:01:43 -0400
There is a slow moving tropical wave about 500NM east of the Lesser Antilles. Hope it is slow enough to be after Tuesday, Will see what it is like tomorrow after J'ouvert, if I am in a state to see what is going on!

Hogan of Grenada


- Lots of rain, but where from?
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 06 Aug 2015 07:43:09 -0400
Good morning all,

I am trying to have a chat to someone on Skype, but can't do it until the rain stops (on the roof). Looked at tall the weather bits and I can't fathom where it came from, or for that when it will end. There is only the odd small blip on Martinique radar (apart from on top of us). Nothing really from the east, where you would expect it to come from. No tropical wave on the NHC synopsis chart, just a 'Low' but that is a bit far out in Atlantic. I am sure experts can explain it, but not me!

My guess is it seems to have come from nowhere and will disappear soon after I send this - think it is brightening up as I type.

The rest of the Atlantic seems OK, for now.

Hogan of Grenada


- 94L seems to be breaking up.
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 31 Jul 2015 17:46:01 -0400
The blob I mentioned a couple of days ago (94L) has somewhat broken up. NHC are saying that there is only a 10% chance of it developing in the next 5 days (the same percentage as 48 hours).

There are reports of another wave coming off of Africa.

We have just had a nice couple of showers. Both my wife and myself thought the other had closed the bedroom window - result a good bit of mopping! Also a small leak in guest bedroom ceiling - I though Shelter Solutions had fixed that a few months ago. Guess the silicone has dried up! A trip up on the roof when it is dry and see if I can spot where it is coming from.

Reading the more professional blogs, it looks as if we are still being protected by a combination of dry Sahara air/dust and strong wind shear. This is, as I understand it, where the higher altitude wind is opposing the lower trade winds. Thus ripping the tops off of any storm clouds thus reducing their power. This I have seen, where the few towering clouds that we have noticed, have their tops skimmed off to the East. Also by this time of year we can normally see lightning in the distance, over Trinidad or Venezuela, but not this year, so far.

Hogan of Grenada





- Maybe some showers today?
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 30 Jul 2015 07:35:51 -0400
With a small tropical wave passing through and with many showers to the NE of Grenada, it does look as if some of them might pass through Grenada during today. Some already seem to be in the Carriacou area. It looks like the further north, the more likely to have a chance of showers, some could be heavy.

Further afield there is a an area of concern just SSW of the Cape Verdes (94L). The NHC have it as less than 10% chance of developing in the next two days. The few models are showing it moving in a WSW direction for the first few days, then moving in a more WNW direction. The overall (current) prediction, if this blob continues, is towards the northern part of the Lesser Antilles (about 6-7 days). Worth watching!

Hogan of Grenada


- The north of Grenada today
  • From: Sally Stalker <stalker at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2015 12:34:03 -0400
And here's our weak tropical wave! 

JPEG image



Sent from my iPad

- Looks like we are about to get a good bit of rain.
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2015 07:16:36 -0400
A weak tropical wave is just passing through and the radar has a large blob of rain about to hit us. Nothing serious, could do with some rain.

Nothing else reported so far about Kick-em-Jenny. News from up north is all is quiet.

Hogan of Grenada


- Cool St Patrick..
  • From: Sally Stalker <stalker at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2015 17:14:49 -0400
A beautiful day to day but warm.  There is a little breeze if you stand in the 
right place and the sea is calm.  Yesterday in spite of the anxiety about 
Jenny, the fishermen went out so there will be plenty of fish in the markets.
It is strange living 5 kms away from a grumbling undersea volcano.  Most of the 
time one doesn't think about it but yesterday's blip made me stop and consider. 
 It is not the fear of a tsunami but the fear of an earthquake that makes me 
shiver.  It would be monumentally destructive if the auld biddy blew her top!  
But hey, think of Californians.  Now that's living coolly.  So are we living 
coolly up here in St Pat's?  I carried out a mini survey yesterday in Sauteurs. 
 "Too much pressure, it's too much pressure" I overheard a young woman say.  
"You mean living near Jenny?" I said sympathetically.  " No, man, that guy 
keeps asking me to go to a bar with him".  Right.  Get your priorities right!!  
In the MNIB our veggie shop, the topic of conversation was about Carnival 
coming up soon.  My questions were met with shrugs....take it as it comes.  In 
the meantime I am told the supermarkets in St George were doing a roaring 
trade.  When my phone came back into use I began to get calls from friends in 
the big nutmeg.  "What's it like up there.  Can you see ash?"  Hello?!!  There 
were numerous pleas to decamp....can't do that!  I would be like that Italian 
Captain who left his ship first!  Not to mention my lovely castle.  So here I 
am alive, ready to fight another day!  Along with cool St Patrick.

Sent from my iPad

- My neighbour K 'em Jenny...
  • From: Sally Stalker <stalker at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Thu, 23 Jul 2015 18:52:59 -0400
Well here I sit on the edge of a ridge trying to feel cool and relaxed and not 
doing too bad a job!

I never felt the tremor or quake which wobbled the houses and the hearts at 1 
am this morning.  I was surprised on reaching for my electronics as I woke that 
there was nothing...cell out, phone out, no internet....just the sound of 
silence!  Now that was unusual but one learns to expect the unexpected with 
Lime!   But no cell...that was weird.  The landline returned quite quickly and 
the calls came in!  Leave now; there' s a bed here; get out now.  Hard not to 
be panic' but as I looked out the window people were swimming, cars were 
ambling along, himself wot does in the garden was chewing his breakfast....oh 
and the birds were singing.   My memory of approaching disaster  was of a 
terrible quiet in the natural world.

So now it is evening.  It is still but cool. I have the keys to the doors in 
place, a bag to put the littlest dog in while I heft the other two.  There's 
water and a small dish in the bag.  My clothes are ready to grab or throw on 
and I have a torch!  I think no alcohol tonight or should I?  It will feel like 
a cleansing diet and I might go into shock, so maybe just one..

Strange how we feel disasters only happen to other people!

Sent from my iPad

- Most interestingly..
  • From: Sally Stalker <stalker at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Mon, 20 Jul 2015 09:29:50 -0400
It has been a truly lovely weekend with that mixture of sun and rain so 
essential to the garden. I put in a new rose called Peace and pruned the 
orchids.  The Mango tree is now producing enough for the house, the Morrocoys 
and passing kids.  
Looking out to Carriacou and with Bathway beach below I am so saddened to see 
the red menace drifting on the shores.  The East coast has been badly affected 
and the smell as you drive through the villages of Soubise and Maquis is quite 
overpowering.  It smells like the stink bombs my brothers favored in their 
youth!

There are volunteer teams out trying to clear the main turtle beach for the 
hatchlings.  I am fascinated by this weed invasion.  I cannot recall it being 
so bad in days of yore, in fact I cannot recall ever seeing it in my misspent 
youth but then I was probably too busy to notice.

The first time I came across the Sargasso Sea, never having paid much attention 
in Geography class, was when I read Jean Rhys' book, The wide Sargasso Sea. The 
sea is a vast patch of ocean named for the free floating seaweed called 
Sargassum.  It is located entirely within the Atlantic Ocean. It is  unique in 
that it harbors a huge variety of marine species.  The sea is defined only by 
ocean currents, has no land boundaries.  Ok, ok no more lecture but isn't it 
fascinating!   I assume, like everything else in our extraordinary world, the 
Sea is subject to changing patterns.  Do yachts sail through this Sea? Surely 
not...or would they?

I do worry a bit about the recent quakes off the coast of Barbados.  I don't 
think we felt anything up here but I recall the massive shaking we received 
when there was a quake off Venezuela last year. Do I now have to add quakes to 
my ever increasing list of scary things!  Sigh! 


Sent from my iPad

- Tropical wave passing through
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 20 Jul 2015 06:40:16 -0400
There is a tropical wave passing through the Eastern Caribbean, but you wouldn't know it. The Martinique radar shows a few small showers from just East of Barbados up to Guadeloupe. So it is possible that there could be the odd shower later today. Just beyond Barbados is a string of, what looks like, heavier showers stretching out for about 300 miles in an ESE direction . If these continue then it is possible that they could bring some heavy showers later today and over night? It is a shame that the Barbados weather radar is still out of action as they would be appearing on that by now.

Still hoping for the odd shower or two.

Can anyone tell me what the state of the seaweed is on the East and North coast now?

Hogan of Grenada


- Remnants of 93L
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 19 Jul 2015 09:23:57 -0400
Hi all,
Off to a beach do today. So far it looks like it should be a fine day. I don't know about you, but we could do with some rain which, maybe in two days time, we could get a shower or two from what is left of the blob I mentioned a couple of days ago. It is about 600 mile off to our east. It is no longer showing on NHC storm warnings but is on the synopsis chart as a tropical wave. It is visible on satellite images as a few lumpy bits of cloud.

So now off to the beach.

Hogan of Grenada


- First Atlantic blob worth looking at.
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 16 Jul 2015 22:12:54 -0400
I have been watching a tropical wave half way across the Atlantic. It has been held back by Sahara dust to it's north and wind shear. But NHC have just given it a 10% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. It is about 4 days away and the consensus of the models have it going in the direction of the north of the island chain but not developing much.

Worth keeping an eye on.

Hogan of Grenada


- Hmm looks like lots of rain between us and Barbados.
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 11 Jul 2015 13:12:04 -0400
Looking at both the radar and the satellite rain seems to be spreading in our direction. I hesitate as it does seem to be heading more on a NWesterly direction. The sky to our East looks a bit cloudy. This all seems part of the tail end of a weak Tropical Wave that has just passed through. So maybe we will have some reasonable rain this afternoon. Just in time for a BBQ at a friend's house.

No Sargasso seaweed down south, but hear and see from photos that it is pretty grim up north. Someone should be gathering it for compost?

Hogan of Grenada


- On the sister isle..
  • From: Sally Stalker <stalker at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Mon, 6 Jul 2015 12:22:58 -0400
As we bumped our way through the rain and mountainous clouds over Grenada, my 
heart sank!  More bad weather, not a good month to holiday in the Caribbean, 
well in my part of the Caribbean!  But it wasn't always like this, I remember 
long sunny calm days in June.
We landed in Carriacou in blustery but rain free conditions but the kids had 
enjoyed the small plane ride.  Hope surfaced, maybe my luck will change!
Carriacou is in low season and low season means very, very quiet!  The kids 
were stunned, "wow this makes Grenada look like a rave up".  Who foisted two 
teenagers on me!   Things got worse! No Electricty , no water and heaven 
forbid! No wifi and hell on wheels, no food!  The Island was shut down for the 
day!  Strangely the kids were unfazed and the only one with palpitations was me!
To day they are going to the Cays, the highlight of their holiday.  The sea is 
choppy but the sun is shining weakly and it is not raining.   Please, please 
demons, let them swim with turtles, see iguanas and get a tan, have a hearty 
BBQ on some distant shore and come home thrilled.
I of course will be refuelling my tanks for our next leg of the holiday.  Flat 
out, cold compress on brow and eyes closed.
I hear it is raining in Grenada.  Sigh!

Sent from my iPad

- I hesitate to add my two bits ...
  • From: Sally Stalker <stalker at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Tue, 30 Jun 2015 15:05:02 -0400
Today is a total washout, the first this Hurricane season!  There is always a 
thunder storm before the arrival of intense rain and sure enough there was a 
cough and a rumble and the heavens opened and remained open.  Sounds rather 
biblical, don't you think.  
Himself -what -does -the -garden turned up bright and early to collect his pay 
cheque ( it's his day off ).  He was anxious to buy his melon seeds to plant so 
I suspect the farmers knew the rains were coming.  
The two Grans staying with me from UK post exams are a bit glum.  There is a 
heat wave in the UK and everyone's tanning beautifully.  One of the Grans is 
still milky white and the other has a built in tan but is usually very dark by 
the end of week one.  I am a bit reluctant to send them back like this, their 
embarrassment will be intense!
This must be a tropical wave passing through, it is very stormy up here.
I hope all your boats are shipshape and safe for the season and that you had a 
super sailing season....there you go!

Sent from my iPad

- Can I stick my head out?
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 10 Jun 2015 22:10:00 +0100
It just looks like there be some rain tomorrow. Hope.

Hogan of Grenada


- Could we see some rain in next couple of days?
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 17:19:40 +0100
Looking at the Synopsis chart, radar and satellite images it does seem that there is a weak tropical wave out to the East of Grenada. The radar is showing what, to me , looks like some rain between Grenada and Barbados and a larger area of cloud further down to the SE. Unfortunately it seems to be moving from the SE towards the NW, currently missing Grenada. But hopefully the wave will continue to move westward? Maybe, and with a bit of luck, Grenada could have some well needed rain over the next couple of days - well the garden needs it.

Sent from afar. Therefore no eye witness report but I am happy to hear first-hand reports, especially if there is some decent rain.

Hogan of Grenada


- Congratulations to both Grenada and Barbados at Chelsea.
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 19 May 2015 15:40:36 +0100
Both received GOLD at Chelsea Flower Show, well done. Just caught a (too small) glimpse of the Grenada display, on the TV.

Well done - I am sure the climate of the SE Caribbean helps, despite the dry patch we are going through!

I am currently in the UK watching Grenada weather from a distance. I can't see any real rain on the horizon, unfortunately for our garden. Some high cloud drifting off of South America.

Here in the UK it is quite chilly, with some heavy showers between some sunshine. Rather breezy, but warming as the week goes on. Good for Chelsea.

Hogan of Grenada


- A couple of blips on radar?
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 12 May 2015 06:13:43 -0400
Don't hold your breath, but I see a couple of small blips on radar, which could bring a small shower soon. The Martinique radar shows tham approaching, but Trinidad radar shows them just passing South. I have always suspected Martinque radar is slightly adrift.

But we do seem to be in an area of slightly more cloud streaming across the Atlantic. But it may not have much, if any, rain for us.

Hogan of Grenada


- DRY
  • From: Christopher Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 08 May 2015 11:25:15 -0400
But is that a small shower half way between here and Barbados, and heading our way?

Don't hold your breath. It is tweeny weeny, but is it possible there are some more showers possible tomorrow?

The garden and the water tank needs it.

Believe it or not, I typed this 5 hours ago but forgot to send it! The rain did come. Not enough yet though.

Hogan of Grenada


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