I am listening to  the radio stations out of Antigua, already the entire Antigua without power even places like the psychiatric   hospital and the Headquarters of the Constabulary force. The maximum  wind as of 9pm was a wind gust of 38mph at 4:30pm at that Antigua's airport as heard on the radio station

Antigua and Barbuda radio stations

http://radiotime.com/region/c_100293/Antigua-Barbuda.aspx

Some stations with less music and more hurricane coverage

97.1 Liberty radio ,Abs radio Antigua , Observer radio

Anguilla radio stations

http://radiotime.com/region/c_100291/Anguilla.aspx

Monseratt

radio Monserrat  (down when I tryed to listen)

http://www.zjb.gov.ms/

St.Kitts and Nevis Radio stations

http://radiotime.com/region/c_100402/Saint_Kitts-Nevis.aspx

British Virgin Islands

http://radiotime.com/region/c_100441/Virgin_Islands_(British).aspx

U.S Virgin Islands

http://radiotime.com/region/c_100442/Virgin_Islands_(US).aspx

St.Maarten radio station lots of hurricane coverage

http://www.lovemycaribbean.info/radiostationstmaarten.aspx

Warning statements from Antigua and Barbuda mets service

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSES, EARL IS EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN 30 MILES TO THE NORTH OF BARBUDA AND WITHIN 60 MILES TO THE NORTH OF ANTIGUA AT AROUND 2 AM MONDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF ABOUT 85 MILES WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS BARBUDA AND STORM FORCE WINDS OF ABOUT 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACORSS ANTIGUA. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL COME FROM BETWEEN THE NW AND SW.

ALREADY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTER RAINBANDS, ARE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA; HENCE, RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD GUARD AGAINST MAJOR FLASH FLOODING, WHICH INCLUDES MOVING TO HIGHER GROUNDS.  RESIDENTS NEAR SLOPES SHOULD ALSO GUARD AGAINST MUDSLIDES.

ST. KITTS AND NEVIS

STORM FORCE WINDS OF ABOUT 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACORSS ST. KITTS AND NEVIS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL COME FROM BETWEEN THE NW AND SW.

ALREADY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTER RAINBANDS, ARE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA; HENCE, RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD GUARD AGAINST MAJOR FLASH FLOODING, WHICH INCLUDES MOVING TO HIGHER GROUNDS.  RESIDENTS NEAR SLOPES SHOULD ALSO GUARD AGAINST MUDSLIDES.

Monserrat

BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSES, EARL IS EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN 70 MILES TO THE NORTH OF MONTSERRAT AT AROUND 2 AM MONDAY MORNING.

STORM FORCE WINDS OF ABOUT 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MONTSERRAT. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL COME FROM BETWEEN THE NW AND SW.

ALREADY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTER RAINBANDS, ARE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA; HENCE, RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD GUARD AGAINST MAJOR FLASH FLOODING, WHICH INCLUDES MOVING TO HIGHER GROUNDS.  RESIDENTS NEAR SLOPES SHOULD ALSO GUARD AGAINST MUDSLIDES.

SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY ROUGH WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGE. HENCE, MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN PORT AND SEEK SAFE ANCHORAGE AND RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 FEET. 

Anguilla

BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSES, EARL IS EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN 30 MILES TO THE NORTH OF ANGUILLA AT AROUND 8 AM MONDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE WINDS OF ABOUT 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ANGUILLA. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM AFTER 2 AM MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL COME FROM BETWEEN THE NW AND SW.

ALREADY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTER RAINBANDS, ARE AFFECTING THE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA; HENCE, RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD GUARD AGAINST MAJOR FLASH FLOODING, WHICH INCLUDES MOVING TO HIGHER GROUNDS.  RESIDENTS NEAR SLOPES SHOULD ALSO GUARD AGAINST MUDSLIDES.

BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSES, EARL IS EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN 30 MILES TO THE NORTH OF BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AT AROUND 12 MID-DAY ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE WINDS OF ABOUT 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL COME FROM BETWEEN THE NW AND SW.

ALREADY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTER RAIN BANDS, ARE APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA; HENCE, RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD GUARD AGAINST MAJOR FLASH FLOODING, WHICH INCLUDES MOVING TO HIGHER GROUNDS.  RESIDENTS NEAR SLOPES SHOULD ALSO GUARD AGAINST MUDSLIDES.

Tropical Storm Earl continues to organize and strengthen as it heads towards the Northern Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Earl moving very near (within 50 miles) or over the Northern Leeward Islands Sunday night or Monday bringing Hurricane conditions to the area. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands may likely experience Hurricane conditions Monday and Monday night. Additionally 3-5 inches of rain expected. The intensity guidance suggests Earl will likely be between 75-90 mph when it moves near or across the Northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Residents in these areas should rush their hurricane plans to completion. Residents in the Turks and Caicos, Eastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Earl.

Emergency Shelters  in Antigua and Barbuda visit http://www.antiguamet.com/Antigua_Met_files/Shelters.pdf

Emergency Shelters in St.Kitts and Nevis  visit http://www.thestkittsnevisobserver.com/2010/08/27/emergency-shelters.html

Discussions and Analysis on Earl

 Rob and Meg LightbownCrowntropical weather

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Mark Suduth Hurricane Track

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/

Dr.Jeff MastersWunderground

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/

Jason Moreland 28 storms

http://www.28storms.com/

Hurricane City videoblog

http://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanecitydotcom

Allan Huffman Tropical Discussion

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/allan-huffman

Enrique 6news

http://enrique6newshurricanecenter.wordpress.com/

Satellite imagery ,radio links, webcams from affected areas

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=2972

http://hurricanecity.com/

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live/

Radars

St.Maarten and Leeward Islands

http://weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html

Meteofrance

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

Computer Model intensity

Computer Models 

source :Evans, C. (2010, August 28). http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al072010_inten.png. Retrieved August 28, 2010, from http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/.

Source

http://www.crownweather.com/al07wind.gif. (2010, August 29). Retrieved August 2010, 29, from www.extremewx.com.

 

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms

Since Tuesday, a low to mid-level trough has been producing daily light afternoon showers and thunderstorms across Jamaica. Total accumulation in Montego Bay (Rose Hall) since Tuesday is 35.6mm/1.40inches.  A second trough induced by Hurricane Danielle will be in the Jamaica area on Sunday so more wet afternoons forecast. When the trough and Danielle moves out fair afternoons will return on Monday.

Major Hurricane Danielle

It is a busy time in the Tropical Atlantic with Hurricane Danielle, T.S Earl, and possibly Fiona trailing behind. Hurricane Danielle is the first major hurricane of this season and is now a powerful category four hurricane. A strong trough  of low pressure off the U.S East coast will on Saturday push Danielle to the north and eventually to the north east away from Bermuda and into the open Atlantic. Danielle has reached its peak and increased shear from the trough along with cooler sea surface temperatures will weaken Danielle as it transitions into an extra tropical system

Forecast for Bermuda (Bermuda Weather Service, 2010) Saturday will have strong winds, gale force gusts, occasional showers, some heavy, and a chance of thunder as Danielle passes approximately 200nm to our east. Large swells will develop, especially along South Shore. Conditions begin to ease on Sunday. Cloudy, patchy, squally showers by afternoon, chance thunder...  Winds north-northeasterly moderate to strong, soon increasing strong with gusts gale force, especially in any heavier showers or thunderstorms...  High near 29°C/85°F.

 

Tropical Storm Earl

For much of today, Tropical storm Earl organization has been affected by dry air intrusion. However the system is becoming better organized and banding features are becoming better defined. Wind shear and some additional dry air in the vicinity will be issues for Earl on Saturday. Thereafter the pattern becomes favorable for intensification all the computer guidance suggest Earl will become a major hurricane as early as Monday.  All the computer guidance indicate the center of Earl will move north of the  Leeward Islands (around 150miles north), but there is much of certainty in the track as mentioned by (Forecaster Blake Forecast Discussion #11 National Hurricane Center, 2010)

“A STRONG RIDGE BETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE IS EXPECTED  TO KEEP THE TROPICAL STORM MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXTDAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...EARL WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERYOF THE RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER NORTHEAST OF THELEEWARD ISLANDS...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE EARL WILL COME.  THE GFS HAS THE STRONGEST RIDGE IN THE GLOBAL MODELSAND MOVES THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THAN MOST OFTHE OTHER GUIDANCE.  AT THIS POINT...IT IS PRUDENT NOT TO MAKE ANY

CHANGES IN THE TRACK FORECAST IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED FASTER TOWARDS THE WEST THAN

PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.”

The northern Leeward Islands should prepare for the possibility of tropical storm conditions on Monday. It is likely we will see tropical storm watches be issued tomorrow. For Bermuda, Earl looks much more dismal than Danielle; the models have it as a category four passing closer to the Island than Danielle. Unlike Danielle passing to the east, Earl would pass to the west putting Bermuda in the more active portion of the Earl.

97L

A tropical disturbance near the Cape Verde Islands has been designated invest 97L by the hurricane center. The system has a good chance of becoming Fiona. The computer guidance hints this system will follow a path similar to Danielle and Earl towards to Islands and a recurve into the open Atlantic. There is much uncertainty and residents of the Leeward Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda and U.S East Coast should monitor this system as the pattern could change against from recurving Fiona and this system may head as a hurricane towards the Bahamas and U.S East Coast.

 

Works Cited

Bermuda Weather Service. (2010, August 27). http://www.weather.bm/ForecastpublicExtended.asp. Retrieved August 2010, 28, from http://www.weather.bm/.

Forecaster Blake Forecast Discussion #11 National Hurricane Center. (2010, August 28). http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. Retrieved August 28, 2010, from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/280255.shtml?

Website used

Bermuda Weather Service. (2010, August 27). http://www.weather.bm/ForecastpublicExtended.asp. Retrieved August 2010, 28, from http://www.weather.bm/.

Forecaster Blake Forecast Discussion #11 National Hurricane Center. (2010, August 28). http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. Retrieved August 28, 2010, from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/280255.shtml?

Still Clearing as tropical wave moves west

In Montego Bay, We had intervals of clouds and sunshine throughout Thursday. Currently (11pmedt) skies are mostly cloud as we are still being influenced by an active tropical wave which moved across the Island yesterday. Today’s Stats (Montego Bay Airport)

Max Temperature           93 deg F / 34 deg C

Min Temperature            75 deg F / 24 deg C

Max Wind Speed             20 mph / 32 km/h 

Active day of Clouds

Yesterday, in the early morning hours (5-7amedt) there were some strong thunderstorms which created a light show against the dark sky. Most of the heaviest weather was offshore so for the past 24hrs we have had only 3mm of rainfall; however there was extensive cloud cover throughout the day and the day seemed more like January after a cold front.

Forecast Montego Bay area

The forecast for the next five days …. Mainly fair weather. There is a chance of scattered afternoon showers on Monday and Wednesday evenings. A High Pressure Ridge will remain across the central Caribbean, and then weaken by Saturday.

Tropics

There is still strong model support for the development of Hurricane between Monday and next Sunday between African and the Caribbean. Regarding the future track, the models (mainly the ECMWF and GFS) recurve the strong hurricane out to sea, away from the Caribbean, the U.S and East of Bermuda. The reasoning behind the model track is a trough of low pressure is forecast to develop next week off the U.S East Coast. This trough is forecast to tear a weakness in the high pressure ridge. Until this trough creates a weakness in the ridge, the ridge will steer the system west, in the general direction of the Lesser Antilles. When the weakness develops the system will feel the weakness and turn north away from land areas. There is still much uncertainty in the track forecast especially the turn to the north as (Sudduth, 2010) explains

“Will this future system make that turn? Most likely it will based solely on what I am seeing on the longer range models. But this is not set in stone. We're talking more than five days out in time and it is possible that the models do not "know" how strong the ridge actually is. One reason for this is because there are no upper air samples out over the vast reaches of the Atlantic so the models have to go on satellite derived data only. It will be interesting to see how things play out as we track what could very well be "Danielle" in the coming days.”

With this said we have all have to closely monitor the progress of the disturbance in the Atlantic. The strength of the ridge, trough, timing and speed of the system will heavily influence the future track of the system and there is much the models may not be picking up 7 days in advance. Persons in the Us East Coast will also have to monitor the potential for some home grown tropical troubles.

Sunday 29th 1pm

A quci Sunday update......Tropical storm Colin has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression status. The system continues to lose organization and could dissipate into a trough of low pressure later today. The depression has passed its closest point to Bermuda and is no longer a threat to that Island.

Mostly cloudy conditions persist across the Montego Bay area after light showers this afternoon. Today’s total rainfall is 5 mm/0.20in.  The forecast for Jamaica for the next seven days are for partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with a 40% of afternoon showers. Winds from the E-SE 20mph, decreasing to 15mph in the nights. Temperatures   highs daily 88 deg F/ 31deg C. Lows around 77 deg F/ 25 deg C.

Tropical storm Alex spent the last 24hrs hugging the Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. There is wind shear of 15kts and some dry air  , however the system continues to slowly intensify. The upper level trough which has been shearing the system is forecast to lift out of the Gulf of Mexico allow a more favorable environment at the same time the system will be moving over warmer, deeper waters. As the trough lifts, the ridge will build steering the system to the NW, then wnw increasing in forward speed. The models are also in good agreement of a landfall in the Lower Rio Grande Valley near the Texas Mexico border , more specifically  the San Fernando-Herroica Matamoros, Mexico area as a 90mph hurricane on Thursday.

It was a mostly cloudy Sunday. There were periods of light showers complement of a trough induced by T.S Alex. The day’s total rainfall in Montego Bay 8mm or ¾ of an inch.  Report on Tropical Storm Alex impacts on Belize from the Ap.

In El Salvador, Civil Protection chief Jorge Melendez said two people were swept away by rivers that jumped their banks. About 500 people were evacuated from their homes.

Authorities in both Guatemala and Belize were keeping an eye on rising river levels. One bridge in western Belize was swamped entirely, cutting off a remote Mennonite community. Seven homes in the Belize River Valley, outside Belize City, had their roofs blown off, and at least one structure collapsed.

Belize officials opened storm shelters in the island tourist resort of San Pedro, as 1,400 people fled for the mainland by plane and by boat.

But the country apparently avoided major damage, and emergency coordinator Noreen Fairweather said on national radio that there were no reports of injuries. People who took refuge in storm shelters were returning home.

"The weather came, but it was just normal rain, little gusts of wind and nothing much," Belize City resident Miguel Chan told APTN. "We have had normal storms that were more heavier than this."

There were no immediate reports of damage to Mexico's resort-studded Caribbean coast, which includes popular beach destinations such as Cancun, Cozumel and Playa del Carmen.

Alex has already regained tropical storm status, with no major impediment will become a hurricane in 24 hrs, and may even become a major hurricane based on the future the storm. The models are along two camps.  

The steering of the storm is controlled by a ridge of high pressure to the NE. If the ridge remains strong or strength, a more western track , which would have it less time over water would take the system as a category two hurricane between Eastern Mexico or the Texas border area.

 Some models have the  strong upper level trough over the Eastern Us  digging a weakness in the ridge allowing the system to turn more northerly which would make anywhere the from the South Texas  to Louisiana coast  vulnerable to a strike from a stronger hurricane Alex  as It would have more days over the warm Gulf.  The Hurricane Center has been favoring a more southerly track taking a Category Two Alex in the La Pesca to Tampico Mexico area on Thursday morning. Residence along the Gulf Coast should be on the monitor the progress of the storm as the models and the National Hurricane Center track have been shifting north with each forecast period.

more discussion on the storm

Tropical storm Alex made landfall, just about 15miles north of Belize City as a 65 miles tropical storm. I have been monitoring live coverage on Belize love fm . http://lovefm.com/listen_live.php 

Most of the reports are that people have been going into shelters. There have been heavy rains, gusty winds up to 48 mph, and electricity blackouts in parts of the country and a few persons have lost zinc roofs. The rivers in the north are normal, but some rivers in the Central and South of Belize that are rising.

  The greatest concern is not with the tropical storm conditions now, but after the storm.

 The interior of Belize is very mountainous and when all this water is squeezed into the mountain the rivers in the densely populated area may rise and cause chaos. A public official on the station has said the country has fared well; it has highlighted the countries strengths and the areas where improvement is needed.

The forecast is wet weather through to Monday for Belize .

A mixture of clouds and the occasional drizzle was the main weather event in Montego Bay. Aside for falling air pressure (from 1012 -1009mb)and  ominous clouds ,we would not have know a system is in the vicinity. It was very dark much of today, but barely a drizzle only a trace of rain in the past 24 hrs. In Capital city, Kingston (130 miles) south, there has been intermittent  light rain for the past 24hrs ,  totaling 0.2 inch. Luckily, so far the heavier activity has moved to the south.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/MKJP/2010/6/24/DailyHistory.html

A flash flood warning has benn issued until 5:00pm tomorrow news release below “

*** FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT *** 

The Meteorological Service has extended the Flash Flood Warning for low-lying and flood-prone areas of all parishes until 5:00 p.m. tomorrow..

 A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding has been reported or will occur shortly. Motorists and pedestrians should not attempt to cross flooded roadways or other low-lying areas as strong currents are likely.  Residents in low-lying areas should be on the alert for fast rising waters and be ready to move quickly to higher ground.

 The island continues to be affected by unstable weather conditions as a result of a Strong Tropical Wave, across the western Caribbean, which continues to produce widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms across Jamaica.  However, another Tropical Wave across the central Caribbean is expected to move across the island tomorrow. 

The forecast is for the widespread showers and thunderstorms which could be heavy at times, to continue to affect all parishes tonight and tomorrow.  Therefore, flash flooding is expected. The potential for the system to develop into a tropical cyclone west of Jamaica within 48 hours remains. As such, marine interests, particularly fishers on the cays and banks south of the island should exercise caution as weather conditions are expected to deteriorate tonight and tomorrow. Strong, gusty winds are also likely in showers and thunderstorms over inshore and offshore areas of the north and south coasts.

 All interests should continue to pay special attention to subsequent Releases issued by the Meteorological Service.”

As the news release stated the worst from the system will move across the Jamaica area tomorrow. Periods  of heavy rainfall is likely between 1/2in- 4 inches possible.  It is likely the system will be upgrade to a tropical depression or storm during the next 48hrs.  Check out the sites below for commentary on the future track and intensity of the system.

It was a mainly fair day in Montego Bay. There were building clouds late this evening, mostly cloudy at this point, but no rain. Montego Bay seems to be in the lull, there have been reports from sections of the squalls. Norman Manley in Kingston picked up 15mm yesterday. Montego Bay officially no rain from the system as of Wednesday 1 am.

The meteorological service has issued a flash flood watch.  

*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL PARISHES* * *

 The Meteorological Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of all parishes until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow.

 A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued.

 A strong Tropical Wave, currently near Hispaniola, is expected to continue westwards and be just east of Jamaica tonight and early Wednesday. Satellite imagery indicates large areas of showers and thunderstorms associated with this system with the capacity to produce flash floods.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms, which may be heavy at times, along with gusty winds, are also expected as the Tropical Wave moves across Jamaica on Wednesday.

 With the Tropical wave showing potential to develop into a tropical cyclone near to Jamaica, fishers on the cays and banks, particularly south of the island, should not venture far from the mainland as weather conditions are expected to experience steady deterioration tomorrow and Thursday.  Marine interests are advised to exercise caution as strong, gusty winds are likely in showers and thunderstorms over inshore and offshore areas.

All interests should also pay special attention to subsequent Releases issued by the Meteorological Service.

The news releases are updated every twelve hours. Visit  

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/news.asp

The active tropical wave west of Jamaica is being closely monitored, as it will try to develop in the vicinity of Jamaica. Some of the models make the system Alex, which would move south of Jamaica Wednesday into Late Thursday.  Most people have no clue has there has been lots of bigger news dominating locally. Whether or not It develops  daily amounts of 1-3 inches are forecast with locally higher in the hilly interior. 

"Ncep discussion on the system

THE SLOW TO MOVE PERTURBATION WILL SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ACROSS HISPANIOLA-JAMAICA-EASTERN CUBA...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. OVER
JAMAICA/EASTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IT WILL FAVOR
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY AT 36-60
HRS. BY 60-84 HRS MAXIMA ACROSS JAMAICA WILL DECREASE TO
25-50MM/DAY...WHILE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS-ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD/EASTERN CUBA THE MAXIMA WILL INCREASE TO 35-70MM BY 60-84
HRS."

 This system will likely become the first hurricane of the season. There are several media covering the system visit for more information 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Weather456/show.html

http://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanecitydotcom 

http://www.justnews.com/mayfieldblog/index.html

 http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp

has several video discussion on the system

24hrs forecast

There is great Sunday weather across Jamaica, Sunny and pleasant. We should monitor a tropical disturbance (92L) in the Eastern Atlantic, while it is uncommon to see development this early, the main development area. Sea surface temperatures have been the warmest on record and conditions around the system appear favorable for some development. Some of the intensity guidance even puts the disturbance to strong tropical storm  in a few days. Experts have warned this will be hell of a hurricane season .we cannot rule anything out we can only be prepared.

Articles on 92L

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Weather456/show.html?entrynum=380

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Invest 92 models

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201092_model.html

There was a heavy rain which flooded Downtown Montego Bay this afternoon , the local news reported people stranded in stores, the rain was very localized , I live  12 miles away We did not have a drop of rain, but It was very dark with thunder, the air was also cooled really quickly.

Today is the first day of the Hurricane Season. It is a day in which take time Jamaicans think about our level of preparedness, from Government, companies and individuals. We have been having hurricanes of our own as a country, but we should still try to prepare for this season clearing drains, trimming trees etc.

Dr. Jeff Masters summaries the advent of this season ,

“The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year's hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone.”

See for full article  http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

This will be a hurricane season similar to 2005, if the predictions of the experts pan out.  Very active with increased threat to the Leeward Islands, Bahamas, Western Caribbean and South Florida.

Crown weather services has updated their hurricane outlook visit http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=2113

In other weather news a major outbreak of severe weather is likely in the U.S Midwest and Mid Atlantic this weekend. T.S Agatha left   a rain of terror in Gutamala so far 180 people , some the pictures from the AP are below.

In this photo released by Guatemala's Presidency on Monday May 31, 2010, a sinkhole covers a street intersection in downtown Guatemala City, Monday May 31, 2010. A day earlier authorities blamed the heavy rains caused by tropical storm Agatha as the cause of the crater that swallowed a a three-story building but now say they will be conducting further studies to determine the cause.

A trough near Jamaica has brought rain every evening since this week. Today was the heaviest; there was a continuous heavy downpour with the occasional thunder. The rainfall started at 3:51pm and tapered off at 10:00pm. There was at times falling at a rate of 20mm per hour (total for today 108mm/4.25in) based on this personal weather station in the Western section of the city. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ISAINTJA2

The forecast is for an Area of Low Pressure now over Honduras to move near Jamaica this weekend. Heavy rain and flash flooding is possible. Look for improving weather on Monday. Quote from accuweather.com on this weekend

"An average of 5 to 10 inches of rain is forecast to fall on the region into the weekend. However, local amounts will be higher in the mountains, where runoff will be excessive.

All indications are this year will be a “Hell of a Hurricane season” with the experts warning of increased risk of the Caribbean. This year could be similar to 2005. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued their predictions today; the link to the press release is below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

Accuweather has similar predictions, for their news story visit http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/31409/2010-atlantic-hurricane-season.asp

Accuweather.com has two very interesting graphics, showing areas of greatest risk this season.

wunderground article

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Crown weather

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=2113

It is an overcast evening in Montego Bay, after a few showers this afternoon that were mostly light. Total rainfall for the past 24hrs 13.8mm.Which begun at midday and lasted through 5pm local. The rainy weather a combination of daytime heating (today's high 33.8 deg C) along with a trough of low pressure to the west of Jamaica that stretches from Yucatan Mexico-Central Cuba to Newfoundland. This area of showers and thunderstorms will become interesting as models forecast it to become a subtropical storm on the weekend before heading to the Georgia/South Carolina coast in the early part of next week. This will enhance our chance for afternoon showers through the weekend.

The area of concern for the Jamaica, Hispaniola area is the forecast of a tropical disturbance that will dump heavy rainfall for much next week. Heavy rain is bad news for Haiti still recovering from the earthquake. There is even the possibility this disturbance may try to organize into a tropical depression we will just have to watch it.

In summary, there are two areas to watch next week for possible tropical development. They both will bring increased chance for rain, good news for the drought situation here. Highs daily 32 deg, C Lows 25 deg C, Afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day  next week with up to an 1inch of rain possible .

Two great sites to get the latest analysis on these systems are  http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

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