Discussions 2008 - Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Caribbean Islands

Weather discussions by Gert & Dave during the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The homepage with the links to local reports from the islands, latest satellite image, current weather outlook can be found here.

While the weather has been very dry with above average temperatures this time of year here in the Northeastern Caribbean, the Southeastern Caribbean should be seeing some showers from a very weak wave heading it's way. Much more impressive is the low level wave around 25 degrees West but this time of year, it's usually only impressive in that part of the ocean for a very short time. However, as it treks across the Atlantic, it's excess baggage left over will be plenty of Saharan dust.

Another cyclone has good potential to form in the Bay of Bengal which could potentially affect the relief efforts (slim though they are), in Myanamar. The system is currently over land but should intensify after it moves over water. How significant it will be depends on the strength of it after it exits land. Shear is expected to be low with good dynamics aloft. Not good!

May is hurricane awareness time and a good post to read is the one from St. Maarten where they usually are the first pro-active country every year to alert and remind residents of the upcoming hurricane season and precautions/preparations needed. I wish all Caribbean countries,including the Virgin Islands, were as timely. How soon we forget!

Saturday May 10, 2008, 4:00PM PDT - Myanmar
As you have read on the news, one week after the cyclone, aid slowly seems to be allowed in by the 'government'. However, because of the lack of clean drinking water disease like cholera, malaria and diarrhea are likely to spread under these poor conditions. Earlier I posted a link on where and how to donate. I just noticed that Google is matching donations, doubling the total of your donation! See their web page. -Gert

Thursday May 8, 2008, 8:45AM PDT - How to help...
The death toll keeps climbing in Myanmar after tropical cyclone Nargis hit. Now it is estimated at 100,000! On the New York Times website there is a page about Myanmar Disaster Relief: How to Contribute. More news at news.google.com. -Gert

Just a few quick comments. As I sit here at my desk, I realized that the few good rain showers we received last week and weekend was a very welcome occurrence as the islands are still quite dry. Water trucks continue to proliferate among our already heavily trafficked roads however and those cistern-helping rains brought to an end an enjoyed respite from those thirsty with no-redeeming qualities, mosquitos!

In just a mere 23 days, the 2008 hurricane season will officially start. Will we see early development later this month before that official start? It will be interesting to see. The words, tropical wave, were uttered a few days ago which, to me, is the un-official start of the season. This one is low over the Southern Caribbean and South America and weak.

Saharan Dust has spread across over half of the Atlantic hurricane belt but only smidges have reached the Eastern Caribbean while some Soufriere Hills volcanic ash has made it's way to the northern islands.

Monday May 5, 2008 9:10AM PDT - More Nargis...
I just read that the death toll in Myanmar (or Burma) is estimated at 10,000, with another 3,000 missing... See Reuters or news.google.com. -Gert

Sunday May 4, 2008 12:30PM PDT - Tropical Cyclone Kills Hundreds in Burma
From the Washington Post:

Thursday May 1, 2008 9:22PM PDT - Climatology of Caribbean Hurricanes
I have just updated the Climatology-section. It now covers all tropical storms from 1851 through 2007 (1,385 storms). I created about 650 webpages and 4,500 images! It has detailed information about all storm tracks that passed by your favorite island, shows the peak of the season, or when you should avoid visiting your favorite island. Furthermore I ranked each island by the number of storms passing close by. Find out what the 'hurricane capital' of the Caribbean is. Plus much more... Check it out at: stormcarib.com/climatology - Gert

After a day fishing in the 13th Annual Dolphin (Mahi-Mahi) Derby, I finally understand why they say 80% of the fish are in 10% of the ocean! It seems 10% of the boats participating were catching 90% of the fish as well! Alas, our vessel, the legendary Black Pearl on which we won the Wahoo tournament about 5 years ago (94.1 lbs!) experienced a few raises and hits but no landings! Weather was overcast most of the day with rising seas between St. Thomas and St. Croix with plenty of fish (for those 10% of participating boats) mostly off the east end of St. Croix. The largest one at weigh-in before I left was over 38lbs. Oh well, there's always next year! Besides, a day off "The Rock" fishing is a good day no matter what!

Weather-wise, it has finally rained the last few days with St. Croix receiving a much needed soaking on Saturday while sporadic showers doused the Carnival parades on St. Thomas, mostly during the afternoon at the Adult parade. After the last 5-7 years of searing heat during those parades, (I worked the street as an on-cam interviewer), a few cooling showers and overcast skies were alright with most attendees although if you wore one of those 60lb costumes and had to dance and "wuk up" for the whole parade route, I believe you would think otherwise!

The rains have also brought to my attention to something I haven't experienced in several months: leaks! Seems every year, new ones appear and old one's decide it's "Phoenix" time! Well, I have news for them. Wait until the Memorial Day weekend (US). If it is dry, those leaks will be all sealed! If not, the piecemeal approach will do.

Many have asked will I be back on TV for th upcoming and rapidly approaching 2008 hurricane season. Yes, I plan to be starting in August as I have to be away for the month of July. Not sure yet whether back to TV2 or to PBS, Channel 12. I'll let you know as soon as I do.

My new address for e-mail if you wish to contact me with questions or comments is: dave.mcdermott.vi@gmail.com. The old superdave@islands.vi still works as well but Choice has had issues lately (seems like longer than that) so I needed to go to a more reliable address. Please take note.

It's almost May and you all know what that means. Please, try to put a few supplies away starting tomorrow if you can. It's really never toooo early!!!!

Friday April 25, 2008, 1:50PM PDT - I am ready!
Just finished with the annual cleanup, by moving all 2007 discussions to the archive and write a little recap, updated the hurricane names above (a couple names I remember from 6 years ago), filed the reports from the correspondents and cleaned them up for this season (which explains the short island list on the right), plus many other little things to transform into the 2008 season and keep this website running smoothly. It is each year a quite involved process so if you see something amiss please let me know. The hardware of the two stormCARIB servers have been upgraded by my excellent web-host pairNetworks, so hopefully I can cope a little easier with the thousands of people who are going to pound on my web-servers! For the people who had been using the link stormcaribe.com (note 'e' at the end) will have noticed that it is not being redirected anymore to my website. The company that owns that domain name started using it to feature porn-ads. Anyway, last year the first storm formed on May 9, so I hope you are about ready too! -Gert

Wednesday April 9, 8:15PM PST - Above average
Today Klotzbach et al of Colorado State University issued their forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. And the results are for the Caribbean: above average major hurricane landfall risk! Actually we are getting used to this. A total of 15 storms are forecasted (till the letter O). Of these 8 will strengthen into a hurricane, of which 4 will be the 'big ones'. This is up a bit from the forecast they released in December.
It is always interesting to look at the 'analog' years they identified, ie. years with similar oceanographic and meteorological conditions leading up to the season. They are 1950, 1989, 1999 and 2000. 1950 I don't really remember, but in 1989 I personally experienced my first close encounter with a hurricane, Hugo. The year 2000 brought as Debbie, which wasn't as bad as feared. However, in 1999 we had 'Lefty Lenny' in November, plus a couple of hurricanes that nicely diverted from the US coast.
Looking at the annual track maps on the website of the Hurricane Research Division (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) I see that most of the storms during these years stayed nicely in the Atlantic and only one at most brought havoc for the islands. However, one bad one is enough to spoil the whole season. And by the way, I will be vacationing in the Caribbean the second half of July, which normally doesn't bode well for the islands. I am not disclosing where I will be visiting in order not to alarm the public. :-) - Gert

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