NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC...
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA AT 06/1200 UTC IS NEAR 35.6N
78.1W OR ABOUT 17 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GOLDSBORO NORTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 35 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 19 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985
MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55
KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HANNA ALREADY MADE
LANDFALL ALONG THE BORDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA
AROUND 06/0720 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NORTH OF 33N INLAND BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. RAIN IS MOVING
THROUGH EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...FROM SOUTHEASTERN
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO VIRGINIA.
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 06/1200 UTC IS NEAR 22.0N 67.9W
OR ABOUT 180 NM EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY
WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE
IKE FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE WEAKENED
ONLY A LITTLE BIT COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING. HURRICANE IKE STILL IS
EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT CROSSES THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS APPROACHING CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19.5N TO 23N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W.
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE AT 06/0900 UTC IS
NEAR 16.8N 36.9W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE READ THE LAST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
17N TO 19N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS CLEARED THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...AND NOW IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
7N26W 10N29W 12N29W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OF THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN BETWEEN
HURRICANE IKE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10 TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W
AND 60W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN BETWEEN HURRICANE IKE
AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT
THIS PRECIPITATION IS MORE RELATED TO THE TROUGH AND THE ITCZ
INSTEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ HAS BEEN BROKEN UP BY THE ACTIVITY OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONES. AN ITCZ IS ALONG 16N17W 15N24W
12N39W 11N43W 12N50W 12N55W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND
POSSIBLE REMNANT SHOWERS ARE 10N TO 18N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN
15W AND 28W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
TROPICAL STORM HANNA 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HANNA MOVED NORTHWARD AND MADE LANDFALL ALREADY. THE TROUGH NOW
IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR 30N83W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N84W TO A
SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 24N87W...TO 23N88W...ALONG A SHEAR
AXIS TO 23N93W...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N96W...TO THE
NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF WATERS. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TO 26N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH
THAT WERE MOVING THROUGH VENEZUELA 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO NOW ARE
MOVING THROUGH COLOMBIA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WITH THE TROUGH
IS NEAR 7N77W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO 15N77W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN
65W AND NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE IKE IS PUSHING THE TROUGH WESTWARD. RESIDUAL MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE 24N87W GULF OF MEXICO
CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WEST OF 80W...
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER...IN BETWEEN THE DRY AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 16N
BETWEEN 70W AND 82W AND THE REMNANT CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
CAROLINAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THROUGH 32N67W...TOWARD THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS NEAR 24N74W...
AND ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF T.S. HANNA PUSHING IT
NORTHWARD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W
TO 28N63W TOWARD HURRICANE IKE...IMPARTING UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY
SHEAR ON THE HURRICANE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N15W TO A SECOND
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 30N29W TO 27N41W TO A COMPARATIVELY-BIGGER-
IN-SIZE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N45W TO 15N54W TO
10N55W. THIS CENTER IS IN THE MIDDLE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JOSEPHINE AND HURRICANE IKE. BROAD NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF HURRICANE IKE.
$$
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