- Updates from the Islands -

- - St.Croix (USVI) - -

- Rain!

From: "Ehsan Said" <esaid09 at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 27 Aug 2008 12:01:06 -0400

Good Afternoon,

I would just like to post a quick message on our current condition. Looking out my office window the sky is currently overcast and it is getting a little dark. I got a phone call from someone located mid-Island and confirmed it is raining there. Right now there is no rain on the east side of the island, but hopefully there will be some later on.

--
Ehsan A Said

- Thunder!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Wed, 27 Aug 2008 11:27:01 -0400

Lots of thunder at the moment, it's getting very dark, but no rain as yet. One assumes it will happen soon. I hope so, we just put off a trip to the beach because the sky started "grumbling" . I guess we were being told, "Not a good idea!" So, we'll see later. I haven't been able to do my water aerobics for several days now.

We don't expect any other system until Friday/Saturday. It looks rather hefty in the satellite imagery, but that's to be seen. Anyway, I'm glad the Boy Scouts canceled the weekend campout. We'll try to compensate by having our scout camp out on the lawn.

The Weather Channel just mentioned that many deaths in Haiti are being reported due to the torrential rain from slow moving GUSTAV. Unfortunately, it is proving to be very much like FAY. I hope everyone is paying close attention. As for us, Max and others have been worried about this unsuspecting tempest coming at PR and us, but it has been very tranquil thus far. Thanks for being concerned. This morning the sea in front of us looked like glass! I thought of an ice skating rink. I understand that that is supposed to mean something.

Let's make sure all of our preparations are done at last. There's an eerie feeling this year that we might be in store for something BIG. Could HANNA the "H" storm be ours again..? Don't mind me, there's no such inkling of a storm as yet. Let's relax and do fun things, prepare some mango salsa (recipe in previous post) and enjoy! Don't forget to pray from the heart! God bless us all!

Isabel

- Sunny Day

From: "Ehsan Said" <esaid09 at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 27 Aug 2008 08:57:17 -0400

Good morning to all,

This morning's weather is sunny and mostly clear sky. I got up this morning encountering high humidity and calm winds, which forced me to have a could shower. The national weather center calls for a 50% chance of showers with some isolated thunderstorms. Looking at the current doppler radar I think the chances of that is slim. I am hoping we get some rain very soon before my cistern becomes empty. Where I live there are no street water, and 99% of our water usage is from the cistern.

Today's tropical events seems a little promising. Hurricane Gustav, sorry, now tropical storm Gustav is a 60 mph storm. Gustav is moving slow to the northwest at 5 mph. At least the wind force is weaker, and this means that there will be less wind damage and smaller storm surges. Gustav seems to be stalled over the western tip of Haiti, which means there could be life threatening flooding. I hope there are no casualties after the storm leaves. It looks like good news for Cuba and Jamaica that the storm has weaken and that they wouldn't have to face another hurricane.

Looking to our east, it looks like 95L has relocated a little more to the south than yesterday. There is even some convection flaring up this morning. The national hurricane center calls for a 20 to 50 percent chances that the storm will get its act together. Right now, the storm is disorganized and we will have to wait and see what the future atmosphere condition will allow this storm to do.

Further east, a tropical wave to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has lost most of its convection and the hurricane center gives it a lower chance of development. Again, we will have to wait and see what happens.

Enjoy the rest of the day.
---------

Ehsan Said

- Inside a Red Ball..

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Tue, 26 Aug 2008 23:00:17 -0400

This might be completely obsolete by the time you see it, but at the moment, we are inside a BIG red ball that also encompasses Puerto Rico. Isn't that supposed to indicate heavy, torrential rain, or something..? Well, it certainly has been quiet. We had lots of "celestial photographers" all over the place this evening; it was quite a sight, but not a sound, no rain, nothing that could possibly give credence to the satellite images. Sorry, I guess I have to study some more. Now when FAY passed by we were also in a huge red ball, and it rained and stormed all Thursday night; I printed out the image, it was such a sight. But this...?

I'll leave that to the experts and give you that promised Mango Salsa recipe. We have to take advantage of this while there are still some mangos around. I received two lovely ones today.

One mango, med-large, diced / half a med-sized red onion diced / 1 tsp minced jalapeneo chile/

2 tbs. lime juice / a half tsp grated lime zest / 2 tbs extra-virgin olive oil / 2 tbs chopped fresh basil / 1 tsp finely chopped lime zest. Mix ingredients by hand for a chunkier consistency, otherwise, use a blender. Let the mixture stand for 1 hour to blend the flavors.

This recipe, is perfect for the imaginary Hurricane Season Cookbook because mangos are part of the hurricane season. It is courtesy of the C.I.A: Culinary Institute of America.

This can be a very stressful season, especially when we see one storm after another forming closer and closer to home. We need to keep as light-hearted as possible, try new things, try this recipe and enjoy. My grandkids enjoyed it. You should too. God bless us all!

Isabel

- Gustav, Fay's sister

From: "Ehsan Said" <esaid09 at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 26 Aug 2008 12:17:26 -0400

Wow! Gustav is now a 90mph Hurricane, and his eyes is fixed on Haiti. I am feeling real sorry for the people of Haiti as there tends to be so many casualties in the area. May God protect them. Currently, the weather condition on St. Croix is partly cloudy and little humid. We had a 70% chance of showers yesterday and not even one drop of rain fell. I hope we get some rain again; Fay did not bring enough rain to our island. Looking to the east there are two areas of disturbances. First, 95L is a little northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and is currently loosing some of its convection since the morning. I think it will pass way north of us and probably die out. The other. southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, seems to be promising. I think it will have a better chance of developing and needs to be looked at carefully. We'll just have to wait and see what the Atlantic weather pattern will be in the hours to come. The development of these systems all depends on the changes of the atmosphere.

Lets just pray that we don't get another Hugo.

--
Ehsan A Said esaid at stx.k12.vi

Systems Analyst

Department of Education

Division of Human Resources

Web: teachusvi.net

Phone: 340-772-3848 ex 33

Fax: 340-773-5844

- Hurricane Gustav + another 11 storms?

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Tue, 26 Aug 2008 10:47:46 -0400

Good morning! I don't want to scare you, but as you know the predictions were updated to 18 storms, and we can see them coming from the coast of Africa. At the moment we are getting some spotty rain from an outer band of Hurricane Gustav. The storm seems to be stuck in the same place, it even seems closer to us now, but that could be because IT has grown and is growing into a powerful hurricane, and is now on our latitude. The rain bands, like octopus legs, will reach out to the whole region. We have dark threatening clouds and have been promised a 70% chance of rain today with thunderstorms in the afternoon. Our two 8000 gallon cisterns on which we rely for water for our needs have been getting replenished with every shower that comes by. It has been a long time since they have been full to the brim. We have a water collecting method which we use only for plants and turtles. It is clean water which falls into buckets under the front deck, poured into every juice bottle we can recycle, and store it for drier days. Believe me, it comes in handy. Some people were fortunate to have a special cistern for gray water--from clothes and dishwashing, and baths, but we do not, so we have to do whatever we can. It works, one just have to have the space outside to store the bottles.

Let's continue to pray and keep an eye on the storms. Dave McDermott mentioned in his post this morning that he thinks GUSTAV is going to develop into a major hurricane. We hope that everyone in its path will do everything possible to ensure their safey and that of any lonely, elderly person in the neighborhood who might be in need. This is not the time to say, "Every man for himself..." Some people have no idea what's going on. They need our help.

God bless us and keep us safe.

Isabel

Today we're having-Garlic Chicken with brown rice, and steamed Broccoli, from the imaginary Hurricane Season Cookbook - later, I will give you the recipe for the Mango Salsa before they go out of season or a hurricane uproots the trees as HUGO did in '89. That recipe is from the C.I.A.-will explain later.

- Tropical Storm Gustav on the Move.....

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Mon, 25 Aug 2008 23:24:25 -0400

Hello everyone! GUSTAV did not waste time in showing his might. It took less than two hours to go from a Depression to a Tropical Storm. That is worrisome because it won't be much longer before he becomes a hurricane. That word has already surfaced. I'm especially concerned for the people who are so water-logged and now have to deal with something bigger..Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti usually suffer many casualties. Those of you in the danger zone, reading this, who are in a position to help others, especially those unable to help themselves, should do everything possible to alert and assist. It cannot be said enough that hurricane preparedness is a major part of our lives in the tropics where we know that from year to year we have to deal with these systems. I am concerned for Florida, storms just seem to like crisscrossing it. GUSTAV so close behind the heels of FAY is an extreme challenge.

So far, we have not had to deal with anything but some rain, more from FAY than from GUSTAV. All drought stricken areas are happy to get the rain provided by these systems. Our garden is looking very healthy again. Everything is blooming brightly and the weeds are having a field day. The Ginger Thomas which is the USVI territorial flower is at its best. Fruit is in abundance, mostly through local farmers; we have a way to go before our fruit is ready. Mangos produce in stages depending on the particular type. So, I'd like to share with you a recipe for Mango Salsa. My two grandchildren like it very much--and they can be fussy! However, due to the lateness of the hour I will delay this until another day, I promise, before the mango season is over.

Let's hang in there and pray, smile, pray some more. God bless us all!

Isabel

Ginger Thomas

- Tropical Storm Gustav on the Move.....

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Mon, 25 Aug 2008 23:19:49 -0400

GUSTAV did not waste time in showing his might. It took less than two hours to go from a Depression to a Tropical Storm. That is worrisome because it won't be much longer before he becomes a hurricane. That word has already been mentioned. I'm especially concerned for the people who are already so water-logged and now to deal with something bigger..Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti usually suffer many casualties. Those of you in the danger zone, reading this, who are in a position to help others, especially those unable to help themselves, should do everything possible to alert and assist. It cannot be said enough that hurricane preparedness is a major part of our lives in the tropics where we know that from year to year we have to deal with these systems. I am concerned for Florida, storms just seem to like crisscrossing it. GUSTAV so close behind the heels of FAY is an extreme challenge.

So far, we have not had to deal with anything but some rain, more from FAY than from GUSTAV. All drought stricken areas are happy to get the rain provided by these systems. Our garden is looking very healthy again. Everything is blooming brightly and the weeds are having a field day. The Ginger Thomas which is the USVI territorial flower is at it's best. Fruit is in abundance, mostly through local farmers; we have a way to go before our fruit is ready. The yellow plums are not quite ready. Mangos produce in stages depending on the particular type. So, I'd like to share a recipe for Mango Salsa. My two grandchildren like it very much--and they can be fussy! However, due to the lateness of the hour I will delay this until another day, before the mango season is over.

Let's hang in there and pray, smile, pray some more. God bless us all!

Isabel

Ginger Thomas

- Tropical Depression in the Caribbean!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Mon, 25 Aug 2008 11:32:13 -0400

Just around 11:00 a.m. this morning, the new Depression was acknowledged, in the Caribbean. It passed us to the south last night with very little fanfare. I looked up at the sky, after seeing the voluminous system on the satellite imagery spreading towards us, and I asked, "So, where is it!" All of a sudden, as if in reply, there was a lightning flash. Our weather dog, Prinz, did not want to eat. I thought he was sick. "Oh, no, not you, too!" We had recently lost Neska. This one lay in his basket completely disinterested in his meal. Prinz is very sensitive to atmospheric conditions near or far, having experienced LENNY when he was much younger. When he realised that he was feeling something that was not showing any signs of action, he ate his food and even went out on the porch. The action came much, much later, around 4:00 a.m. with a heavy downpour, then came a trail of lightning/thunder of which the weather radio station was warning mariners especially. Since then we were having very sunny conditions in spite of the satellite imagery showing us being bombarded with "a truck load of rain" as Max put it. Pay no attention to the satellite imagery, most of the time, it does not indicate the current conditions. We do expect a 60% chance of rain/thunderstorms today and tomorrow, etc....but we have been generally rain free. As I write it begins to rain as if to say, "So, there!"

Max reminds us that when it comes to hurricanes (with a "g"), the left side is the right side (better to be on the left side of it), the right side is the wrong side. The same goes for lefties or southpaws, as they are called, "lefties are the only ones in the right mind." Very consoling for yours truly.

Okay, dear folks, you know what to do. This Depression, which the meteorologists on the Weather Channel claim as their own ("our") - is soon going to become GUSTAV. He has enough fuel to help him become a powerful hurricane. Don't wait too long to finalize preparations and don't let current sunny skies fool you. Those of you who experienced slow, lazy FAY, pray that he is not looking for her; he may very well follow the same track.

Try to remain calm, try another recipe from the imaginary Hurricane Season Cookbook (coming up in the next post...,) and try siesta if you haven't as yet. Of course, you have to be a privileged senior to do so (smile). God bless us all!

Isabel

Have you visited www.gotostcroix.com as yet.?

- Tropical Depression in the Caribbean!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Mon, 25 Aug 2008 11:26:47 -0400

Just twenty minutes ago, the new Depression was acknowledged, in the Caribbean. It passed us to the south last night with very little fanfare. I looked up at the sky, after seeing the voluminous system spreading towards us, and I asked, "So, where is it!" All of a sudden, as if in reply, there was a lightning flash. Our weather dog, Prinz, did not want to eat. I thought he was sick. "Oh, no, not you, too!" We had recently lost Neska. This one lay in his basket completely disinterested in his meal. Then I noticed that the satellite imagery had a lot activity just to the south of us. Prinz is very sensitive to atmospheric conditions near or far. When he realised that he was feeling something that was not showing any signs of action, he ate his food and even went out on the porch. The action came much, much later, around 4:00 a.m. with a heavy downpour, then came a trail of lightning/thunder of which the weather radio station was warning mariners especially. Since then we were having very sunny conditions in spite of the satellite imagery showing us being bombarded with "a truck load of rain" as Max put it. Pay no attention to the satellite imagery, most of the time, it does not indicate the current conditions. We do expect a 60% of rain/thunderstorms today and tomorrow, etc....but we have been generally rain free. As I write it begins to rain as if to say, "So, there!"

Isabel

Have you visited www.gotostcroix.com as yet.?

- Greetings from 94L..

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Sun, 24 Aug 2008 19:57:12 -0400

This was what it looked like late this afternoon. It rained about 25 drops, which did not make me run for cover. I was watching Speedy and Pokey, our two Red-Footed Tortoises as they explored the "lawn" for interesting snacks. At the moment it's VERY quiet. It's dark, so I have no idea what the sky looks like at the moment, but the flag on the Christiansted Fort is flapping like crazy! I was checking My Satellite (closeup of St. Croix) and we're embedded in all sorts of funky colors.

I also noticed that 95L is kind of dropping down a bit south, or is it my imagination. Mind you, I have a very lively imagination. I can trust Dave McDermott and Max to respond to this. Somehow the coordinates and the imagery don't match up. Whatever the case, there seems to be a carnival out there. It could be a competition for carnival king,--which of these systems is going to be crowned GUSTAV--94L or 95L? Dave said there is one even more ominous that just came off the African coast. Torture..torture....

Well, for those of you, faithful fans of stormcarib, who have expressed a desire to visit

St. Croix, here's a very interesting website to help you pack your suitcase:

www.gotostcroix.com --fascinating links. Never let the weather interfere with your desires!

God bless us all!

Isabel

The dark cloud in the photo seems to have gotten darker since I started writing this post!

- 94L in the Caribbean!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Sun, 24 Aug 2008 11:36:58 -0400

Caribbean Neighbors!

Our sea is very, very warm. I can verify that, I'm sure you can, too. What does this mean with 94L in the vicinity? Those five puffy balls that were heading towards the Windward Islands, have congregated in the Caribbean, trying to form into one big PAPA! It is expected to become a Depression soon. Already Jamaica is on alert, with reason. As for us, we are being told of a chance that we will be feeling the effects of it by way of thunderstorms beginning tonight, but it's low to the south. However, it's a very broad system. We've been having threatening clouds all day yesterday and this morning. It has been delightfully breezy, but not a hint of rain as yet. We are in awe as to what FAY did in Florida and beyond. I hope and pray that 94L, possibly GUSTAV, is not going there also. I could not believe it when I heard that the coast, Cocoa Beach, off Orlando got 33 inches of rain! Are we really going to have 18 of those storms, with some becoming hurricanes..?? God help us! I just hope those updated Hurricane Season predictions will turn out wrong. I wish us all the best. God's blessings!

Isabel

- Hurricane Season and Food

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2008 13:55:51 -0400

Conditions here are currently grayish, very breezy, something's threatening. What is it.? We hope it's rain. Florida is getting too much of it and we are not getting enough. I heard they have to watch out for alligators and snakes. They are disoriented, don't know the difference between the land and the water. I'm glad we don't have that problem. Well, it's time for lunch and siesta.

First some food from the imaginary Hurricane Food Cookbook.

4 salmon filets seasoned lightly with salt and pepper

Place in a microwaveable dish

Cover with a white caper sauce (as follows):

1-2 cups of milk/water mix

2 tbs. margarine or butter

1 tb. of small capers with equal amount of caper water

Thicken with a mixture of 1 tb. cornstarch and milk or water, beat smooth before adding

Stir, stir, stir until it thickens, taste, season, taste....

Pour over salmon filets, cover, click on "fish filets" on your Microwave, if you don't have that feature take a wild guess - 10 mins is probably enough, the salmon should flake with a fork if it's cooked. Serve it with anything, accompanied by any veg. or salad.

We had it with potatoes, cut in half'slices, bit of water, bit of salt, microwave on "Potatoes"

Take out and drain any moisture, add 1 tp. of olive oil, add one fresh pressed garlic clove, mix it well, and add a sprinkle of dried thyme. We had salad.

The microwave comes in handy when you come in late and want to sit down on time for lunch.

We scurry around all morning, we eat at 12:00- liesurely, then have siesta from 1:00 - 3:00.

See.? I'm using my siesta time to write this because afterward I'm going to be busy and that usually includes water aerobics at Shoys beach depending on the weather, of course.

Enjoy your Hurricane meal and don't stress too much. Smile, Jesus loves you.

Isabel

- FAY - Waiting for her twin brother?

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Thu, 21 Aug 2008 13:21:21 -0400

Hello, world! Those of us who have nothing better to do, it would seem, are keeping a watch on the weather, for you! At the moment, we are enjoying this verse"

The sky is a soft, hazy blue,

The sea has a skimmirish, flippity hue,

the puffy, white clouds have a tinge of gray,

if I didn't know better, I would think it's May.

by M.M.I. (Me, Myself, and I )

But it's hot, icky, sticky August!

And there's an elusive 50% chance of rain every day! Sometimes I feel like picking up that little weather radio and shaking it! Anyway, rather promises than too much of the wet stuff. The Christiansted By-Pass which is under construction suffered some landslides during that recent strong tropical wave that should have been called by its proper name - a DEPRESSION! The same one that later became TROPICAL STORM FAY and is dropping tons of water all over Florida. Well, SHE certainly is taking her good old time. I get the impression that SHE's waiting for her twin brother GUSTAV. Imagine if they should meet! Now, let's not get panicky. GUSTAV has not entered the picture as yet and we hope he won't do that just yet. His name has popped up every now and then in some conversations. As if FAY is not providing enough material!

Now, in reference to a previous post of mine: There were conflicting reports about a bus, in Haiti, carrying thirty passengers, which was taken away "in water surging from runoff from TS FAY......two babies died when the bus flipped on Sunday in the swollen Riviere Glace....the bus was towed out of the water.." with civil authorities on hand. "They found nothing to support early reports that dozens of people were swept away and may have died...." (It makes me wonder, were those two babies traveling alone..?) "..there was no official list and no way to determine the exact number of passengers.....they may still find additional victims as the search continues." It would be great if we can get an update on this story from Martin Bush, the hurricane correspondent from Haiti, who wrote last on August 16th. Chances are, we are not going to read much more about it in the newspaper. The above quotes were from an AP report in the St. Croix Avis on Wednesday August 20, 2008.

Perhaps, we will never know the exact count of TS FAY victims. And it's only the beginning...

Be well, try to be happy, and don't forget the prayers for yourselves and for those in mourning.

God bless us all.

Isabel

- The Unbeatable, Unforgetable FAY

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Tue, 19 Aug 2008 23:33:23 -0400

Tropical Storm FAY has been a terror -- more than 30 deaths reported on radio news in Haiti alone: SHE's been good, brought much needed rain: SHE's been amazing- increased strength over land; awesome teacher - SHE picked up a "thrill-seeker" in Fort Lauderdale, slammed and dragged him on the sand, picked him up again and sent him flying, ending at the hospital in critical condition. SHE wants him to live to talk about it so that no one else would ever wish to repeat such a despicable lack of respect for Mother Nature. What a female! And we haven't seen the end of her tour as yet. SHE is planning to swing across Florida again and, who knows,--as a hurricane? This is only the 6th storm, folks! In my last swim yesterday, I noticed how very warm the sea is at the moment. That's a lot of fuel standing by, getting ready for GUSTAV. Is HE coming as Invest 94? We are keeping an eye on that one. The way it's moving now, kind of wobbling from lat.12 to 13 to 12...not a good sign for us here in the Leeward Islands. Whether it remains a strong tropical storm as FAY did, or worse, a hurricane, it usually rolls over us, especially if it's travelling west northwest from such a low latitude. Gert calculated that it should be at lat.61 in four days if it contines at it's current speed. St. Croix is at lat.65. We expect it on the weekend. All we can do is watch and pray! God bless us all!

Isabel

- Looking Back...

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Mon, 18 Aug 2008 23:30:43 -0400

Hello! We have all been looking west following FAY, which is raising havoc in Cuba, the Keys, and Southern Florida. Have we looked back to the east recently? Invest 94 is already halfway here, traveling on a track straight west! At 8:00 p.m. it had winds of 30 mph and it's low enough to land in the Lesser Antilles in five to seven days. Not according to the spaghetti factory. It should pass to the north of the northern Leeward Islands. We know from FAY that the storms don't usually go according to our way of plotting. She was supposed to pass us well to our north! Let's wish everyone well with FAY, be safe, not sorry, and start paying attention to Invest 94, because we may have to deal with GUSTAV before long. For the moment, it's quiet here. No sign of the Wave that should pass through tonight into tomorrow. We did get some heavy downpours this morning, so it's quite possible that the Wave passed earlier than expected. God bless us all.

Isabel

- The Moon and the Weather

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Sun, 17 Aug 2008 11:35:40 -0400

My sincere and heartfelt condolences go out to all those who suffered the loss of loved ones and or property. It is always sad to hear about fatalities as a result of weather systems which are so common at this time of year.

Some years back I saw a ring around the moon. I thought it something unusual so I called my husband outside to see it. The next day I asked a wise, elderly person what it could mean, and I was told, "Weather!". It meant that "bad weather" was coming. Sure enough, a couple days later, it rained and it poured! Now, last night, I looked up at the full moon without my glasses and there was a rainbow ring, though small, around it. My husband did not seem to notice what I saw. Then I put my glasses on and there was just the usual glow around the moon. So, it seems that the new lens in my left eye made me see a rainbow. Whatever that means! NOAA Weather Radio is telling us that a Wave is entering the region Monday evening through Tuesday. Maybe that's it! I checked the satellite imagery and noticed that there is, indeed, some "weather" coming up towards us. Well, we can sure use some more rain. Otherwise, it looks as if a quiet spell is settling in, at least for the next week.

A blessed Sunday to all.

Isabel

- Tropical Storm FAY !

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Fri, 15 Aug 2008 20:39:59 -0400

The Caribbean Hurricane Network, at this hour (9:00 p.m.), still has not put FAY on the board. She was born in the Dominican Republic late this afternoon. I hope she was gentle. Now, all relatives and friends in Southern Florida, the Carolinas, and elsewhere, be ready for FAY. Monitor this TS carefully! It doesn't take much to upgrade to hurricane strength especially if it has a chance to spend some time over water. We were told not to worry about 93L, but that was the same we heard about 92L and look what happened. I wish NOAA weather radio would give the coordinates of the Invests or "disturbed areas", so that we can know with our tracking maps exactly where they are located. It was only when I finally saw the coordinates for 92L that I realised we were not out of the woods, as a matter of fact, we were in trouble. 92L had ample time to start curving to the west in our direction, which it did!! Thank God it was only a strong tropical wave and not a hurricane. We are grateful for the RAIN. Smile and pray and God bless you!

Isabel

- 92L is still in Labor!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Fri, 15 Aug 2008 13:41:37 -0400

FAY is looking to peak shyly into the world; somewhere in the Domincan Republic..? Or..? The reconnaissance flights are resuming this afternoon. I must say, we received some HEAVY rain last night. Did we ever need that! Haven't checked the cisterns, but I can bet they are full, if not then we should complete that with the added rain today. By the way, where is it? We are to have another few inches. Well, I was checking the radar, 92L has such a wide circulation that I think the rain bands will be responsible for that rain, although I did read in Dr. Jeff Master's blog that no spiraling bands were visible. We had sunshine all morning, but there are some heavy-looking clouds around, AS I WRITE I HEAR THUNDER! Dave was very upset in his last post yesterday that this system was not upgraded as yet. Well, I think it definitely will be today. It's much bigger now than before. I hope the folks in those beautiful mountainous islands are protecting themselves. It's extremely dangerous, especially with 12 inches of rain rushing downhill. Let's not forget to look behind us. There is another wave, 93L to monitor. I wouldn't put too much trust into the computer model spaghetti. They had 92L going off at least 100 miles from the Northern Leeward Islands and before we knew it it was coming straight at us. Just keep studying it's every move and make your own calculations using the NHC and NOAA as a guide. Keep smiling. God bless you!

Isabel

- Crucian Spaghetti

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2008 22:18:18 -0400

We're in the mix, in the spaghetti bowl, but not much is going on. (attached photos were taken just after 7:00 p.m.) At 7:20 it started raining after a lot of lightning and thunder in the late afternoon. I was gardening, using the last of the daylight and finally decided it was time to come in, the sky was also

threatening to break at any moment. The rain lasted 20 mins. That was it until just before 10:00 p.m. when it started lightning and thundering again. It rained for about 10 mins. Yet, on the Weather Channel, Jim Cantore was showing our islands immersed in green, according to him we were having very heavy rain, well, maybe some were, but not St. Croix which he specifically mentioned. He also said it is moving very fast, that's good, slow is sure death for many who tend to get flash floods. Water kills more people than wind. HUGO flattened St. Croix in 1989, breaking the wind meter at the airport at 245 mph, yet no one died as a result. As I write it started raining again. This is supposed to continue all night and through Friday. Those of you who are in the path of this changing storm, beware, take all the measures possible to protect yourselves and help wherever you can to help the helpless. God bless us all!

Isabel

- What's in a Name?

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:34:50 -0400

Figuratively speaking, 92L is in labor. The "sonogram" shows that it's a girl! Her name will be FAY! Will she be Caribbean born? It's a matter of time. Dr. Jeff Master's WunderBlog predicts a 20% chance of this happening by Monday. Today, there's a 50% chance of it becoming a Depression according to the National Hurricane Center. It's looking more that way in the satellite imagery. As a matter of fact, if you read Dave's post this morning, he thinks it looks like a "Beast to the East". It is so spreadout and menacing! Let's hope it is as gentle as Disney's beast. As we go about our busy schedule we have to keep an eye to the weather. The day can be sunny and all of a sudden the sky to the east looks very dark and before long it has arrived. We are to expect at least 1-3 inches of rain. That would be most welcome. I asked my 7 yr. old grand daughter what was the difference between a shower and rain. She said "Rain lasts for a long time, and a shower lasts only a little while..." See, there? That's why I'm not satisfied with a shower, unless I'm in the bathroom and I have to conserve water! I just ran out to see if that was the Hurricane Hunter flying over our house; according to my 8 yr old grandson, (future pilot) it was, and he pointed in the direction to the east. The sky to the east is now beginning to show signs of deterioration in the weather for the rest of the day and tomorrow as has been forecasted. Will keep you posted as to our local conditions. Preparations have been under way for more than a week concerning this system and those behind it. Everyone should be in pretty good shape by now, we hope that that is the same for all the Caribbean. God bless us all!

Isabel

- We're getting some rain .... YIPPPEEEEEEE!

From: heygirllll at aol.com
Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2008 15:06:33 -0400

It's become very dark, gray and cloudy. The rain has started along with a couple of thunder boomers ... a good day to be home, if only I wasn't at work.

~Jill

Another "Hazardous Weather" update ...

Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1253 PM AST THU AUG 14 2008

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-150530-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.080814T2200Z-080815T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
1253 PM AST THU AUG 14 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM AST THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
  ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...
  CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND
  VICINITY...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...PONCE AND
  VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST...
  VIEQUES AND WESTERN INTERIOR. IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND
  ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

* FROM 6 PM AST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
  CONTINUES TO EJECT BANDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
  EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE PUSHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
  VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE BULK OF
  THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONG TROPICAL WAVE TO
  CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND REACH THE
  VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE
  IMAGERY AND THE METEO FRANCE LESSER ANTILLES RADAR INDICATED
  THAT THE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION.

* WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
  TONIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
  TROPICAL WAVE...NEARING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WILL
  BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THE OUTER RAINBANDS
  MOVING AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE U.S.
  VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE MOST OF PUERTO RICO. CONDITIONS WILL
  CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS ADDITIONAL BANDS APPROACH THE
  AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PERIODS
  OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
  SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SQUALLS. THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING
  IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE
  APPROACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE
  INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
  RICO WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
  TERRAIN. THIS TROPICAL WAVE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE RESIDENTS AND
  VISITORS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
  CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT IT
  INTENSIFIES...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED AS
  THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
  FRIDAY. MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

$$

RAM/OB/JF

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- I see rain in our future ...

From: heygirllll at aol.com
Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2008 09:57:08 -0400

Looks like we've got some rain and stormy weather headed our way ...

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
900 AM AST THU AUG 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 930 AM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES AND COUNTIES
IN PUERTO RICO

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
     SAINT JOHN...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX

...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS MOVING
WESTWARD...TO MOVE ACROSS U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.

...INLAND FLOODING...
SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING AHEAD OF THE WAVE ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS ADDITIONAL BANDS
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND AROUND THREE TO FIVE
INCHES FOR PUERTO RICO...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO FIVE
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE LOCAL AREA...TO BE IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

...HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOODING...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE MAINLY IN THE ATLANTIC AND VIRGIN
ISLAND TERRITORIAL WATERS...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF SQUALLS
WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT AS THE WAVE MOVES CLOSER. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HIGH WAVES CREATED BY THE SQUALLS WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLAND WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PUERTO
RICO TONIGHT. SEAS OF FOUR TO SIX FEET TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 7
FEET BY FRIDAY MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE
ISLANDS.  MODERATE SWELLS SHOULD AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

...WINDS...
MOST OF THE WIND REPORTS RECEIVED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
INDICATED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HOWEVER...AS THE SQUALLS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE PROPAGATE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTH AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO WATERS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED
AT TIMES GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH.

FOR THE LAND AREAS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY WITH PASSING SQUALLS...AND ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

RM/RAM

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- Is 92L Changing..?

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Wed, 13 Aug 2008 22:33:27 -0400

At 8:00 p.m. the coordinates for 92L was 16.7N 59.0W moving at 12mph. Check Dr. Jeff Master's Wunder Blog. He gives it a 20% chance of becoming a hurricane by Monday, the National Hurricane Center gives it a 20-50% chance of becoming a Depression by Friday (while in our neighborhood). At that time we should be affected by it. We are already experiencing some strong gusts of wind. I always heard this was not going to be a wind event. At 8:00 p.m. the wind was still at 30mph, but how long will it remain thus, the sahara dust is thinning out fast. If we go according to the new computer models, two of them are bringing it between St. Thomas and us. The others are all going through the Northern Leewards. These same computer models, a few days ago, had 92L well to our north and everyone was breathing a sigh of relief. Now they have it almost on top of us. If you check the satellite image of Navy/NRL, it looks very "pregnant". It looks as if 92L is definitely changing in size, in direction, and it wants a name. God bless us all!

Isabel

- WHAT HAPPENED..!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Wed, 13 Aug 2008 14:18:16 -0400

NOTHING, Folks, "a watched pot never boils" ! We have been watching 92L until IT got tired and started to fizzle! Don't get me wrong! I am not wishing for a TS, much less a Hurricane Fay, but we know from experience that when these systems pass by they bring us some beneficial rain. It's been a long, very long time, since we've had such a type of rain. After FLOYD passed it rained for a week, now that's beneficial plus! Conditions here, at the moment, are cloudy-hazy like, a very pleasant breeze, great for a hammock. The rain if it does materialize should be later tonight, or tomorrow, or the next, who knows. If everything wasn't so dry we wouldn't care. I think I'l try to get a tour of the Hurricane Hunter that's sitting at the airport. It didn't have to go out. Not necessary, but they have given tours of the airplane and I have never been on it, so if anyone knows how I can pay a visit drop me a line or two and let me know how to get in touch. You never know! This could be my lucky day! Let's try to keep smiling and thank God for life! Blessings to all!

Isabel

Why hasn't the large blob under 92L been mentioned? And the huge one coming off the coast of Africa? Did I miss something...? Hm-m-m....

- The Hurricane Hunters are here!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Tue, 12 Aug 2008 20:56:21 -0400

They are getting ready to check out tropical wave 92L. This evening on the Tropical Update on the Weather Channel, it was reported that the wave had not developed and had even lost some of its former intensity. The sea is quite warm as we have been noticing. The fuel is there for a full-fledged hurricane, but how about the other ingredients? Enough dry air can hamper its development. As of tomorrow night we can expect squally weather, but nothing out of the ordinary, however, that could change in a couple of days and it becomes a Tropical Depression. I guess that possibility is still holding, but for us it promises to be gentler. Nevertheless, everyone is on alert and we all want rain. Hope we get it. I pray for all our neighbors down the road as this traverses westward. May it not cause any life-threatening situations. Make sure to prepare well and "keep an eye to the weather". God bless us all.

Isabel

- Yes, No, Maybe so......

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2008 21:20:53 -0400

Here we are, waiting to see what 92L and 93L are planning to do. It's quite possible that both are going to pass St. Croix to the north, not bad, unless it means no rain whatsoever; that would be bad. Like everyone else, we are sizzling and we need to cool off! We go to the beach after five everyday because the heat is so intense, the sand so hot that it's not enjoyable any earlier. It's much more relaxing in the late afternoon. Today, while I did my water aerobics, the grand kids 8 and 7, pretended they were in the Olympics. I must say their swimming skills have improved tremendously just by watching Michael Phelps and all the others competing in Beijing. Amazing! If 92L affects us at all, I understand that would be by Wednesday into Thursday. I guess it's a matter of time then. In the meanwhile, on Tuesday night I plan to stretch out on the deck and enjoy the meteor showers - the Perseids - from midnight to 4:00 a.m. ! This info was courtesy of the correspondent in Bonaire. Thank you! I think I'll have a little Vermouth on ice, which always brings back such warm, fond memories. I'm counting on a cloudless sky, otherwise let it rain, let it pour! God bless us all!

Isabel

- Get Ready! Get Set!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Sun, 10 Aug 2008 11:47:50 -0400

Hi, Folks! It looks as if 92L means something mean for us this up-coming weekend. The satellite imagery on the Navy/NRL is quite impressive. We've had the calm, now we have to get ready for the chances of a storm, possibly even a category 1 hurricane. By then we should have all preparations in place. Let's not wait too long. Storms have a mind all their own, even though the people at the Weather Channel are very possessive, "our" Depression, "our" Tropical Storm, "our" Hurricane. Should we hold them responsible? Ha! As always we have to monitor the storms as if they are definitely coming this way and pray that they do not. As Dave mentioned today in his post, there are others behind it too, that "do not look like slouches either". How many were predicted? Another 12 named storms or more! It seems that we are going to have our work cut out for us, not to mention the stress! Let's hang in there, and remember that we're not in it alone. God help us and bless us all.

Isabel

- Animals AND the Weather

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Sat, 9 Aug 2008 17:31:59 -0400

When I'm very distracted I make the silliest mistakes! Sorry! The previous post is

Animals and the Weather.

Isabel

- Animals are the Weather

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Sat, 9 Aug 2008 17:26:39 -0400

Dogs know when an earthquake is going to happen. That is why the movie THE BIG ONE about the California earthquake begins with a dog howling on someone's balcony up in the hills; the elephants in Indonesia knew that the tidal wave was on its way and they raced up the mountain with frightened tourists on their backs, and we..? How can we tell that a hurricane is coming? That's easy! We have countless ways of knowing in our day and age, even if we didn't want to know it cannot be avoided, but in 1928 when Marianne was 11 yrs. old there was none of that fancy technology. She found out because the parrot fish her aunt purchased at the market were bloated with water! What bad timing! She was on school vacation in St. Thomas and had to return immediately, on the next boat, to St. Croix. Her aunt was very worried. The bloated fish was a sign that a very big storm was headed their way. The fish filled themselves with water so that they could sink to the bottom away from the high waves that were coming. As a consolation, for an interrupted vacation, her aunt bought her a beautiful straw hat with colorful ribbons.

Sally Jacobs, author of The Hurricane Hat, wrote this true story about the 1928 hurricane that developed near the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. Besides causing great destruction in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, it did the same in Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Kitts, and Montserrat, traveled on to the Bahamas curving towards Florida.

The bloated parrot fish was "a good barometer". In the meanwhile, the " U.S. Navy reported that a hurricane was traveling in a northwesterly direction, and the residents of St. Croix were warned to protect themselves from harm."

In Puerto Rico they called it the San Felipe Hurricane. It was one of HUGO's relatives! St. Croix did not experience another hurricane until HUGO in 1989.

So, if you buy fresh fish from the market, pay attention! God bless us all!

Isabel

For more interesting information, read THE HURRICANE HAT - A Virgin Island Story-

by Sally Jacobs .

- Correction!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Fri, 8 Aug 2008 10:15:49 -0400

I apologise for the mistake. Please note the correction:

Sorry, I meant Dave McDermott or "Super Dave" as he was known when on TV2.!

How in the world did I ever come up with McKlosky..? A detective series, no doubt.

Stay cool! I heard the temp. here, today, was going up to 100 degrees. I'm sure there's a mistake somewhere! Although the correspondent in Dominican Republic was complaining the other day that it was 100 degrees over there and yesterday it was in the upper 90s here. Let's face it, it's hot and getting hotter, that's why the hurricane numbers are so high! Check my previous posts. God help us, and bless us all

Isabel

- "A Rainy Night in Georgia"

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Thu, 7 Aug 2008 23:01:55 -0400

Would that, by any chance, be another song.? One of our stormcarib friends verified "Don't let the Sun Catch you Crying" a song by Gerry & The Pacemakers,1964. If, indeed, it is raining in Georgia, our friends there should be happy. I heard there was a drought in that State. There seems to be a drought here too. Dave McKlosky used to say on TV2 that after the Sahara dust clears, which usually is around the middle of August, that's when the greatest threat of hurricanes begins. Maybe Dave can clarify this for us. Did I mince words there a bit, or does the thick dust really have something to do with the quiet (sh-h-h-h!) we're having now? I got up one morning and it looked like a foggy day in London, or perhaps the volcano in Guadaloupe was erupting again. Then I found out it was Sahara dust with some volcanic dust mixed in. On the satellite imagery we are embedded in dust. The good news is that it's supposed to clear with the elusive rain that's on the way this weekend. The bad news on TV this evening, is that 18 named storms are predicted for this season, not 17 as I heard on the radio. So, what's one more, right? May they all vanish out in the open sea. "A continual drip on a rainy day and a quarrelsome woman are alike..." Oops! I did not say that! See Proverbs 27,15. God bless you!

Isabel

- The New Numbers are Out!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Wed, 6 Aug 2008 16:26:05 -0400

On July 24th I quoted the St. Croix Avis as to the "very active season" that was predicted (see posting). This morning I heard all about it on the radio. There is an increase in the numbers! Now seventeen(17) name storms are predicted, nine (9) will become hurricanes, and five (5) of those will become major hurricanes with wind of 111 and over. Several are predicted for this month. It would be interesting to keep an account and send Colorado the results at the end of the season. Guess what! They are often right! How they can predict so far in advance is a science beyond me, it's called Meteorology! This all means that we have to make sure that we "don't put all of our eggs in one basket", rather spread them about so that we can have some if we lose some. In other words, let's get those hurricane preparations done once and for all and then rest easy. Chances are we won't have to contend with any storms. God bless us all!

Isabel

Attached is a photo of Neska which I took in early June. She was lying down and sat up as if to pose for this final nice photo of her. Thanks again for all the heart-warming emails received.

Attachment: 080608Neska2.jpg
Description: JPEG image

- A Parade in the Distance

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Tue, 5 Aug 2008 15:58:06 -0400

Many thanks to the wonderful people who visit this site. I have received some beautiful condolence emails. It certainly helps to carry the burden of pain for the loss of a loved one, human or pet. As we check this site, especially today, we will notice a parade of tropical waves heading our way. We were told to look out for the biggie we see on the satellite imagery around 35W 9N. If only we could just get rain and nothing else. But, this is that time of year and anything can happen. Our prayers should be that we are able to protect ourselves in case of a threat. I think that St. Croix, having suffered from the effects of HUGO has learned to build stronger dwellings; prior to HUGO, building codes were not in place, at least to the strict extent they are now. All we can do is prepare and hope for a quiet season. At the moment it is slightly overcast with a chance of rain later this evening. God bless us all.

Isabel

- "Don't let the Sun see you crying"...

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Mon, 4 Aug 2008 14:40:15 -0400

Isn't that the title of a song? Whatever the case, I would have to be in hiding then, because we are having a beautiful, sunny day, with just a smattering of clouds and a wonderful breeze. We buried Neska, the Golden Retriever, and with hearts heavy-laden we went off and about the garden distracting ourselves as best we could. The forecast was for rain later this evening and overnight, but that was courtesy of invest 99L which is now being pulled up and out to sea, so our hope for more rain is gone for now. One thing I must share with you, is that while we were taking care of laying Neska to rest, the grand kids and Mom were at the swimming pool at the hotel in Orlando, when suddenly they noticed an airplane in the clear blue sky draw a smiley face followed by the words: Jesus loves you. A while later the sky became overcast. Who said pets have no place in the afterlife..? I whispered to Neska, "When you see Jesus, run to Him as you did to us, kiss Him, and give Him greetings". When the children saw that message, to me it was like a special message from Heaven. Whacky..? I think so, but true or not, it was very consoling. As we go through this month of August, where the chance of hurricanes increase considerably, let's make sure everything is ready and that we listen to the civil authorities. Let's enjoy one day at a time and keep praying. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Raindrops / Teardrops...

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Sat, 2 Aug 2008 14:35:58 -0400

Conditions on St. Croix as still gray, overcast, with a prediction of more thunderstorms in the afternoon. We have had a most welcome RAIN since yesterday. It's amazing how a brown lawn can turn green right before your eyes with a soaking rain as that. However, all our pleasure in this special longed-for rain has dwindled with the sad sight of our dying Golden Retriever, Neska (means girl); she is from the Basque region of Spain. It started to rain again as we took her in the garden cart down the ramp to the car, lifting her in and out with a large towel. The vet wanted to see her, and he was all the way in the other town. Frederiksted which is almost always wetter than Christiansted, was surprisingly dry at the moment, but the little ponds everywhere indicated that it had rain a lot earlier. Looking back we noticed that the thick clouds were on their way and soon it would rain again. The vet said it was a matter of two to three days for Neska..... Fortunately, our daughter and grand kids are away having a good time at Disney World. So, today there was a mixture of rain and tears. Personal "weather conditions" are not going to improve until the worst is over and we can begin to laugh in earnest again. As for conditions on the island, for those of you who plan a trip, come on down, and make the best of every type of weather, chances are, you will have the best time ever. God bless us all.

Isabel

- RAIN - A much needed gift.

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2008 15:43:52 -0400

Finally, we received that good, soaking rain for which we have been waiting, and waiting... What a relief! Thank you, Lord! It arrived with lightning and thunder! That's the kind of weather I need occasionally to keep my Crucian weather bird spirit from sagging. All I heard during the past weeks on NOAA Weather Station is that it was going to rain in the coastal waters! I remember whenever I complained about this to my elderly father ( he died in 2005, three months short of his 100th birthday, with memory intact), he responded, "My grandmother used to say that it is important for it to rain on the sea, or else, the sea would get too salty and the fish would not survive..." Well !! That made some sense. If anyone has ever been to the Dead Sea, it is so salty that no marine life exists there, at least, this is what a reliable friend who has been there told me some years ago. I guess if we look it up on the internet we can verify its validity, however, I don't know about my great-grandma's theory! Keep smiling and praying and you will keep smiling! God bless us all!

Isabel

- Lots of Oranges and Greens!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Wed, 30 Jul 2008 15:43:39 -0400

I noticed today that the satellite imagery is alight with colors! The festive dance is heading this way, but if we are lucky we may only get some of the action. Most of it trails southward. We are having very blustery winds at the moment and the sea has been quite choppy all day, even in the otherwise calm bay in front of us. It brought back memories of passages from Dr. Arnold Highfield's account of his experience with HUGO. At that time the sea was all foam! They had no idea of the size of the monster they were going to battle throughout the night. As a matter of fact, after 60 yrs without a hurricane, this family, like many others just put tape on their glass panes. Well, HUGO surprised everyone by thrashing 95% of the houses on this island. Folks, when a hurricane is coming, forget about the tape and protect your houses/apts with sound, hurricane-proof material. Since HUGO, we have all learned and will never forget. God bless us all as we pray each day.

Isabel

- The Beautiful, Sunny, Hot days.....

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Sun, 27 Jul 2008 21:54:15 -0400

Good for visitors, the dry weather, but not good for our bananas, boo-hoo..... When are we going to get some rain! Be patient, will you? It's almost here! There is a wave finally heading straight this way and we should benefit from it by Wednesday. NOAA Radio said it this morning and I'm counting on them. Hope it turns out to be as forecasted, because not only the bananas have suffered, but the Mespel tree that was loaded with buttons is shriveled as are all the leaves on all the fruit trees. The Christmas Palm trees and the Coconut Palm trees have lost many frounds. They simply bend, exhausted by the lack of rain and we have to cut them off. They look pitiful. Anyway, let's hope this drought comes to an end soon. Here's a photo of how the bananas have suffered. God bless us all. Isabel

- Fire!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Fri, 25 Jul 2008 22:59:57 -0400

East End is so dry that today we had a fire. We could smell the smoke all the way in Christiansted, but then the wind blows from east to west. I don't think that West End has that

problem as it has been getting all the rain. That's where Frederiksted is located. But tonight, l could not believe it, it actually rained a heavy downpour for a brief shining moment. What a great sound on the roof! Immediately a solitary frog voiced its thanksgiving, again for only a brief, shining moment! Even the frogs are getting bored with this dry weather! All their wonderful concerts have been ruined. Our fruit trees are looking rather sad. I don't think we will have a good harvest this year. But we must plow on. A few days ago we had eleven 5-yr-olds from the Big Island Adventure Summer Camp come to our house where they were taught container gardening by a lady from the Dept. of Agriculture (see photo) other fun activities and picnic followed. We should plant even though we may not harvest. However, we do hope to harvest the tomatoes, green peppers, eggplants, lettuce, and parsley that were planted in the box. We just have to keep watering. As long as we don't get 5 inches of rain per hour as DOLLY deposited on the Texas coastline, we are otherwise grateful for every drop of rain.

Be well, and keep alert and prepared. God bless you.

- "Forecasters predicting very active hurricane season"

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 17:38:10 -0400

That was the heading, today, of one of the articles in the '08 Hurricane Supplement of the St. Croix Avis. Along with "Hurricane Hazard: In-land flooding can be deadly" and "Make your best effort to prepare for the worst" and "Hurricanes Can Spawn Tornadoes" , and "Forecasters monitoring tropical disturbance". With all the hurricane preparedness tips and advice of all sorts, we should be ready for whatever comes. (We should.) "Most of this year's activity, according to NOAA, is expected during August through October, the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season. For the Caribbean, "there is an above average chance that a major hurricane will make landfall across the Caribbean" said Philip J. Klotzbach, forecaster at the Colorado State University. So, there we have it. We cannot say we have not been warned and prepared. One year someone told me that "all that talk about above average hurricanes and what..!" That person only counts the ones coming at us, not the many that missed us to the north and the south! How ungrateful can we get! Thank the Lord that of the 15 that year we were spared! It only takes ONE to devastate a place! Let us pray that if the storms do develop they will not harm anyone. "With forecasters calling for a very active hurricane season this year, we have to remain vigilant," said Jacqueline Heyliger, VITEMA's assistant director.

Best wishes for a safe hurricane season,

Isabel

- Heavy Traffic in the ITCZ !

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 11:41:17 -0400

Dear Friends,

Everyone seems concerned about 97L, but should we really? I should say everyone except some of us who are more concerned about all the traffic of some rather hefty-looking waves along the ITCZ. I think Trinidad-Tobago is taking notice. These could be potentially hazardous. If they would only remain as rainmakers I would say "Send them up, we need RAIN!" However, we know that around August is when the waves begin to emerge just a bit more towards us, that's where HUGO came from. Let's forget about 97L for now and focus on those waves and on the wee bit of weather hanging over us to the north, which no one seems to be noticing, according to Max. My prayers are with the folks who will experience the onslaught of DOLLY in a matter of hours. I hope they are smart enough to take all the precautions necessary to protect themselves. I could not believe a 15 yr old girl visiting from Orlando who said she likes hurricanes. When a cat 1 or 2 is coming she goes out with her friends to play games with their flashlights. Talk about bored teens! Anyway, let's hang in there, we have a way to go as yet.

God bless us all!

Isabel

- RAIN from 94L!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 22:04:36 -0400

At the moment, after a huge ,strong gust of wind, very cool air came ahead of the heavy rain we are now experiencing. It is certainly most welcome. We have been preparing the garden for an event with a group of kids from our school's Summer Camp and it was so pathetically dry looking. I think it will look a lot better now. Judging from the satellite imagery on Wunder 94L is quite far south, but it is a very broad system which fills up the expanse of sea. According to NOAA Radio, there is another wave to arrive in the area by Sunday night. We have a chance of more rain out of that one. WAPA (Water and Power Administration) is beginning to bring the awareness of a water shortage to the public and has started to cut the potable water supply urging clients to use cistern water until they are back up to normal. Due to lack of rain and problems with the desalination machines we are in this predicament. We don't receive potable water, but we do have to buy it by the truckful when our cisterns are running low, and that company gets it from WAPA. So, let it RAIN! And thank you, Lord!

Isabel

- Tropical System churns in Atlantic

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 21:38:24 -0400

That was the heading, today, of an article in The Avis one of our local papers. It read: "The tropical disturbance located about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to push toward the Lesser Antilles, and should be approaching the islands by Saturday or Sunday, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said. /Although conditions have become less favorable for development, NHC forecaster Eric Blake said the system could still become a tropical depression or storm in the next day or two before it reaches the Caribbean. / On Tuesday, Blake said thunderstorm activity with the storm had decreased, but the overall structure and low-level circulation remained intact./ As of 8 p.m. Tuesday, the NHC said the center of the tropical disturbance was located near longitude 50 degrees west and latitude 13 degrees north. It was moving west-northwest at 17mph. / Satellite and microwave imaery still depicted a large well-defined envelope of ciyclonic turning consolidating near the low-pressure center. / Several of the most reliable long-range forecast models continue to develop the system into a tropical storm later in the week and moves it toward the central Lesser Antilles or northern Leeward Islands by this weekend. / Present projections place the storm about 120 miles south of St. Croix by Sunday. / Residents should continue to closely monitor the progress of the tropical disturbance and make preparations for any adverse impacts on the territory, should the system develop and threaten the islands. Even if the system doesn't develop into a depression or storm, Blake said it will bring a significant increase in wind and thunderstorm activity to the Lesser Antilles over the weekend."

Don't relax yet, folks, I've been reading the updates from the correspondents. This system is reminiscent of HORTENSE in 1996. It passed 100 miles to the south and we had a deluge. One thing I've always heard is that water kills more people than wind. Let us take the advice of the experts and monitor this system carefully until it is out of the area. We do need the rain and are thankful for any we may get, but let's do be careful to make the right decisions as to beach plans this weekend. We may have read or heard that several people got killed along the U.S. Northeast coast due to the effects of BERTHA, and it was much farther away. This disturbance will be in our neighborhood, north, south or down the middle, these are all inhabited islands.

Let's keep an eye to the weather! Great advice from Max. God bless us all.

Isabel

- The Rainmaker

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 22:52:21 -0400

The ominous swirl to the east seems to have lost it's punch, but it still promises to be the rainmaker for which we have been wishing. This wave is forecasted to pass us on the weekend with hopefully enough rain to fill our cisterns, hmmm. Of course, if it's too far south we may not get a drop. This morning we were blessed with some hefty showers from the wave that passed yesterday. According to the Weather Channel, there are FIVE tropical systems to talk about. One is along the west coast of Florida, the other four are---Guess! To our east! They still consider our weekend wave as something to "watch". We should not let our guard up. I remember when a Tropical Storm formed over the Virgin Islands some years back. So, this innocent-looking wave could suddenly turn into a monster. In the meanwhile, why worry; if anyone wants to come and visit this beautiful place, come. There are 82 sq. miles of breath-taking views, places to visit, a great array of fabulous eateries and restaurants, and the people? Charming! Nine out of ten! I've received requests for information which I will gladly do by private email. Let's hang in there and keep praying. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Is Cristobal chasing Bertha..?

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 23:28:22 -0400

If that's the case, the computer models have him tracking in the wrong direction. It seems, as was predicted earlier in the year, that the Caribbean will be visited by a storm this season, whether it is this one or the next. Whatever the case, some people don't want to hear about it. They bury their heads in the sand and hope it'll just go away. We hope it will go away out to sea and not harm anyone, but it will go where it wills. The key, is preparation. Are we ready for Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, or Fay...? God bless us all!

Isabel

- Hot July!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 23:06:20 -0400

Hi, folks! It is not just HOT heatwise, it's getting HOT as far as activity! Here we are looking east to a new storm, possibly a Depression in one or two days. The computer models, one wonders, about those. Whatever the scenario for the end of this week, it seems that we will definitely have to contend with some weather. Hey, we do need RAIN, don't we? Too bad for the many beautiful Flamboyant Trees that are in full bloom, the Bougainvillea (see photo attachment from our garden), and the heavy laden fruit trees. They don't fare too well with high winds. But, we do need the rain! Here's hoping we don't have to cope with anything BIG. God bless us all!

Isabel

Attachment: RredBougainSea.jpg
Description: JPEG image

- We are watching Bertha!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2008 23:03:02 -0400

What suspense! Hurricanes have a mind of their own, and this one is a woman! We are concerned for you in Bermuda. We hope BERTHA decides to track away from you into the open sea. She is the first of several major hurricanes predicted for the season, so we really are off to a very BIG start. We are having very breezy conditions with a 50% chance of rain tomorrow. We are hoping for the rain, as usual, but the breeze tend to blow the clouds away,--to the Rain Forest! I guess that's where the Rain lives!

Thank you Marion in Bermuda for the beautiful photo of the Poinciana Tree, here we call them Flamboyant Trees, and they are all in bloom. We've planted several and three are blooming, one large and two smaller ones. The largest one I saved more than 8 years ago when LENNY brushed pass St. Croix and flattened it. That one is red and the others are orange/or gold as some say. As for the Avocados, here there is a saying that when the tree is full of fruit hurricanes are coming. Don't believe it, we have been having an abundance of Avocados and other friut since 1999 and have not had a storm all these years. Thank God.

I wonder what other folk tales are out there. Let's have some others everybody! Would be interesting!

Let's hang in there and pray,

Isabel

- The UK Met track....

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Sat, 5 Jul 2008 11:23:38 -0400

Dear John Burne and all our friends in Guadaloupe, I cannot blame you for being worried about that UK Met track. I worries me too, because I always heard that what passes through Guadaloupe makes a beeline to St. Croix. Unfortunately, all we can do is watch and see if BERTHA really wants to visit us. According to the U.S. Weather Channel this morning, the cone of uncertainty is now directed more towards the U.S. mainland as opposed to what was originally thought, that it would go up and out to the Atlantic without affecting any land. Now, they are projecting BERTHA to pass to the north of the islands but in a northwest trajectory rather than out to open waters. As I studied the satellite imagery I noticed that there is a system coming from the west that could determine whether BERTHA goes up and out or down towards us. Let's just hope that we don't have to cope with BERTHA. Let's try to remain as cool as possible, and keep smiling. God bless us all!

Isabel

- Disappointed...

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Thu, 3 Jul 2008 21:36:57 -0400

Judging from the Weather Channel, it would seem that we had a deluge today. As a matter of fact, the "pretty people" as Max calls them actually said we were having heavy rain and thunderstorms, etc.. Well, what a big disappointment! We hoped we would get some rain, and hopefully somewhere on the island it rained, but nothing, and so much hoop-la about it. I hope I am not tempting Mother Nature, after all, BERTHA is out there. If SHE decides to change her route, we're in big trouble. We have to watch it closely. To those of us who are celebrating the 4th of July, have a safe and happy one, and may God bless you and yours. And God bless the United States of America!

Isabel

- Bertha and Cristobal..?

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Wed, 2 Jul 2008 23:28:15 -0400

What a surprise! Could it really be that we will have, not just one, but two storms competing for attention?

If so, the one that is named first will be Bertha and SHE may be closer than we think. As a matter of fact, we don't have to do a lot of thinking, just look at the satellite images. See that blob? And as we have been informed by more than one source, it is headed up to the Virgin Islands. How about that! At the moment, it is very quiet, with hardly a cloud in the sky. Are we to have a rude awakening? If so, there goes the Campers Parade, picnic at the park at Christiansted Fort, and their swim at the Cay, and all the Emancipation Day activities! But do we ever need the bountiful rain that this tropical system can bring! Right? Right! Let's try to get a couple of hours sleep and see what tomorrow brings. God bless us all.

Isabel

- On the Edge!

From: "Isabel Cerni" <hicerni at viaccess.net>
Date: Wed, 2 Jul 2008 16:30:24 -0400

Here I am, sitting on the edge of my chair, like many correspondents no doubt, wondering what that ominous-looking mess in the far