- - Guadeloupe - -

In Guadeloupe the weather is very fair – humid, no rain and blue skies.

I rarely mention issues other than the weather but the “Dark Clouds” gathered over our two neighbouring islands Montserrat and Antigua at the same time are exceptional.

In Montserrat Soufriere collapsed on its inner core over the weekend and clouds of ash reached heights of over 40,000 ft - easily visible from Guadeloupe. I trust our friendly neighbours are spared any further worry after the earthquakes and pyroclastic flows.

In Antigua there has been a terrible and tragic shooting of a British honeymoon couple in a well known local hotel. The new bride died and the young husband is not expected to survive. Antigua is an island I know well and visit often as it is so close to Guadeloupe. The tragic incident that happened there is unprecedented and I know all Antiguan people are shocked and dismayed by the tragedy – many may have already read some of the adverse publicity is has, and will, bring to the island. I have a great affinity for the island and people of Antigua - I feel deeply sorry for the victims and their family as well as for the good people and fine country in despair.  In parallel a dark cloud has been cruelly cast on their land as well.

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

 

C’mon NOAA and all the experts!! This lot off Africa is a good deal more impressive than 97L - still no comment from the official sources!

 

With Kind Regards

 

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

98L ????

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

A good photo of 97L - not looking to be a problem for the Caribbean at this time. A big wave with lots of convection has just exited Africa and may be the birth o 98L(?)

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

Despite the threats of TS all around us we are as ever unscathed in Guadeloupe and weather is great. A little bit of rain recently did nothing to dampen the spirits at the FISHING COMPETITION. The fish caught were large – a HUGE TUNA nearly 65 kilo (served up on the beach in GOSIER) and a LAND ROVER won for the RECORD MARLIN 497 lbs caught! See the weather here in LES SAINTES today – TS? What TS? None round here thank goodness!

 

With Kind Regards

 

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

The weather IS fickle. 94 L MAY or MAY NOT upset our cruising plans as it arrives on Wed night/Thursday – nobody knows.

See the contrasting photos of GOSIER just off the entrance to the main harbour in Guadeloupe - taken on Bastille Day 14^th, just two hours apart!!

Just kidding, they are in fact same day but 12mths apart! Guess which one is this year’s picture!

 

 

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

Click this link – 94L is showing every sign of turning into a TD.

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

Very early yet to say how 94L will develop or where it will go. Every storm track here is a possibility. You can see the area of cloud where the low is developing in the sat. picture. In Guadeloupe we will monitor this new low very closely as it is pointing too close for comfort(again!) Lots of action may happen in the next month and this is probably a good time for everyone to look at their Hurricane Plan closely. The Caribbean has been free of a really devastating Hurricane since IVAN in 2004. In EMILY DEAN and FELIX we were in many ways very lucky - they were past us by the time they really got going. 94L has all the characteristics and opportunity to get going as a strong tropical storm before it crosses the Caribbean chain.

 

 

 

 

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

BERTHA still looking big and ugly – rather near Bermuda now and predicted to possibly go back to Cat 2/3. A record Hurricane for July in several respects. Guadeloupe weather is very good but we are keeping our eye on the predicted development off Africa on Mon/Tues.  BASTILLE DAY and a holiday here on Monday by the way – watch out for fireworks and GUILLOTINES!! Sacre Bleu!!

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

Good hi res image of BERTHA (at 1500 UTC today) now heading closer toward BERMUDA. Also check my earlier posting below to see link to forecast of potential TS formation off Africa Tues next week.

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

 

Hurricane Bertha was well forecast by the GFS model. Here is their latest prediction.

http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/wna_slp_gfs_00z.htm#

Click the link and then select loop. This is the forecast next low pressure coming.

There is a possibility of a hurricane forming off Africa / Cape Verde early next week which may affect the Leeward Islands in the next 8-10 days.

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

GUADELOUPE

French West Indies

 

 

Historically a very slow build up (as exhibited by BERTHA)has resulted in an impressive storm. I have been unnerved by the inconsistency by the forecasters who have constantly altered the tracking to the west. I want to believe that the wind shear and strengthening will cause a right turn. Then the UK Met suddenly threw a spanner in that teory. Look at their predicted track – straight at Antigua, Barbuda and Guadeloupe!! This is only a model but it still is unnerving to see the islands are now actually lie in one predicted track.

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

Here is some info regarding Guadeloupe’s history with tropical systems and storms.

Guadeloupe's History with Tropical Systems

br)=brush (ts)=Tropical Storm (bd)=Back Door, meaning coming from over land from opposite coast. Not all names are noted, also storms before 1950 were not named.

Years within 60 miles

1871,1872br,1879ts,1883br,1889-3ts,1889br,1891br,1893,1898ts,1899,1899br,1901tsbr,1915br
1916ts,1916br,1924tsbr,1928,1930-32ts,1950br,1953ts,1956,1958tsbr,1959ts
1961ts,1963tsbr,1964,1966,1981tsbr,1989,1995ts,1995br,1995,1996ts,

1998br,1999br,1999tsbr
Hit 40 times in 137yrs to End of 2007
Names from list above
Baker,Edna,Betsy,Ella,Edith,Frances,Helena,Cleo,Inez,Gert,Hugo,Iris,

Luis,Marilyn,Hortense,Georges,Jose,Lenny
How often this area gets affected?
Brushed or hit every 3.49 years
Average years between direct Hurricane hits.
Once every 15.11 years
Statistically when this area should be affected next
3 years overdue
Last affected by
1999 Nov 19th T-Storm Lenny brushes just N.E by 40 miles with 70mph winds causes very heavy wave damage on west coast as Lenny was pulling away.5 killed here.

2007 Damages to coasts from large North swell from storm in North Atlantic. 1 Death.

Guadeloupe Area / Hurricane past
1871

Aug 21st 115mph moving WNW passing just north

1893

Aug 16^th 85mph from the SE

1899

Aug 8^th 105mph from the ESE

1928

A Cat 3 caused great damage to the area Sept 12^th press 27.76 with 120mph winds.1,500 killed here,11 ft storm surge .Eye passes directly overhead. In neighbouring Montserrat 42 dead & 5,000 homeless.

1956 Hurricane Betsy

Aug 11^th devastates the area with 110mph winds, kills 6 here

1964 Hurricane Cleo

kills 14 people here. At Raizet Airport 15m north of eye min press 29.62 44mph gusts to 81mph. 1,000 homes destroyed.

1966 Hurricane Inez

Sept 27^th 120mph winds(air force recon) 27 killed 600 injured

1989 Hurricane Hugo

Sept 17^th slams the area with 140mph winds killing 5 & injuring 80 leaving 11,000 homeless. Major damage in Marina, separate report to follow

1995 Hurricane Luis

brushes well to the North. Guadeloupe got 80mph winds killing 3 & causing moderate damage

1995 Hurricane Marilyn

Sept 15th just SW with 80mph winds bar 29.03 Minimal damage.

1998 Hurricane Georges

Brushes well to the North moderate damage on north coast

1999 T-Storm Lenny

Nov 19^th brushes just N.E by 40 miles with 70mph winds causes very heavy wave damage on west coast as Lenny was pulling away. 5 killed here

 

 

With Kind Regards

 

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

79 Residence Pieds Dans L' Eau

Marina Bas Du Fort

97110 Pointe a Pitre

GUADELOUPE

French West Indies

 

Tel: +590 590 933312

Fax: +590 590 936330

CELL: +590 690 723028

 

www.nautorgroup.com

www.nautorswancharter.com

 

 

 

Good picture of BERTHA spinning away. I note the forecasters keep adjusting the track “left”!!

 

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

Good picture of BERTHA spinning away. I note the forecasters keep adjusting the track “left”!!

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

 

Posting again as the “prophets” are all starting to look even harder at what is now Invest 92. Probability of TS formation looking 50% and over now. Big picture below shows a big system off Africa!

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

Posting again as the “prophets” are all starting to look even harder at what is now Invest 92. Probability of TS formation looking 50% and over now.

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

 

Here is the ECMWF prediction for 4^th July.

NoGaps T + 132 hours

 

Have not posted for a while now but Guadeloupe is green and beautiful as ever.

The GFS model has been predicting TS formation for some days now and slowly all the other models are starting to agree. The current thinking is that a low pressure system will form off Africa in the next 48-60 hrs and track eastwards. With elevated sea temperature it is considered that a TS will form.

Click on this link and then select LOOP to see a model of the storm forming. As ever my Captains and Crews are now considering the integrity and safety of our yachts. Nothing changes!! http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/wna_slp_gfs_00z.htm

I also enclose this sat photo showing clearly the weather developing on Africa which is the focus of the potential development. If you go to the relevant websites you will see all the animations. It is not that convincing but it is there nonetheless.

 

 

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

 

 

Here is the ECMWF prediction for 4^th July.

 

Have not posted for a while now but Guadeloupe is green and beautiful as ever.

The GFS model has been predicting TS formation for some days now and slowly all the other models are starting to agree. The current thinking is that a low pressure system will form off Africa in the next 48-60 hrs and track eastwards. With elevated sea temperature it is considered that a TS will form.

Click on this link and then select LOOP to see a model of the storm forming. As ever my Captains and Crews are now considering the integrity and safety of our yachts. Nothing changes!! http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/wna_slp_gfs_00z.htm

I also enclose this photo showing clearly the weather developing of Africa which is the focus of the potential development.

 

 

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

 

 

Have not posted for a while now but Guadeloupe is green and beautiful as ever.

The GFS model has been predicting TS formation for some days now and slowly all the other models are starting to agree. The current thinking is that a low pressure system will form off Africa in the next 48-60 hrs and track eastwards. With elevated sea temperature it is considered that a TS will form.

Click on this link and then select LOOP to see a model of the storm forming. As ever my Captains and Crews are now considering the integrity and safety of our yachts. Nothing changes!! http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/wna_slp_gfs_00z.htm

I also enclose this photo showing clearly the weather developing of Africa which is the focus of the potential development.

 

 

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

 

Have not posted for a while now but Guadeloupe is green and beautiful as ever.

The GFS model has been predicting TS formation for some days now and slowly all the other models are starting to agree. The current thinking is that a low pressure system will form off Africa in the next 48-60 hrs and track eastwards. With elevated sea temperature it is considered that a TS will form.

Click on this link and then select LOOP to see a model of the storm forming. As ever my Captains and Crews are now considering the integrity and safety of our yachts. Nothing changes!! http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/wna_slp_gfs_00z.htm

 

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l