Discussions 2008 - Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Caribbean Islands

Weather discussions by Gert & Dave during the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The homepage with the links to local reports from the islands, latest satellite image, current weather outlook can be found here.

Saturday, September 6, 2008 20:18PM PDT - Pleas for Help Board
A little early for this, but I have a 'Pleas for Help' forum where people can exchange information. In the past it has proven to be a great medium for connecting people watching this storm off-island. It feels a lot better when you are in contact with people who are in exactly the same stressful stituation as you are... Find it at: help.stormcarib.com. I will create a dedicated TCI forum if the need is there, hopefully not. If you are confused with where exactly is Provo (Providenciales officially), Grand Turk, ... there is a really nice map on Wikipedia. Hoping for the best... -Gert

Saturday, September 6, 2008 14:03PM PDT - Cat 4
Ike is about to bear down on the Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) and just now Ike has been upgraded to a Category Four (Extreme) Hurricane... Sustained winds are now 135mph! The only good thing is that it is moving relatively fast at 15mph so it won't hang around like Hanna did. So far it looks like these islands won't get the eye, but it will be close. On the other hand, Inagua (Bahamas, that 'big island southwest of TCI', see map of Bahamas) will get the eye. Wikipedia tells me that the population of Great Inagua is 969, with the capital Mattew Town in the southwestern part of the island. Hope we hear some good news from our hurricane correspondents on the TCI and Bahamas soon after the storm has passed... Further ahead..., Ike goes more way more south then earlier forecasted, with the eye passing over almost the full lenght of Cuba. That should weaken Ike a lot, but when it comes over the ocean again it will quickly strengthen. The good news is that it looks like now Ike's eye should stay over 100 miles away from the Florida Keys. Use the tools above to calculate how far it is or how close it can get. Stay safe! -Gert

Good morning!

The treadmill of the 2008 hurricane season just keeps running on with TS Hanna trying to escape a fast closing hurricane Ike and poor TS Josephine lagging far behind but still showing some promise this morning. Meanwhile, another contender is exiting the African coast.

The African continent, which has rapidly been firing salvos for the last few weeks, appears to have temporarily run out of ammunition after this last wave exits today. Firing blanks is not a bad thing, in this case! Satellite imagery indicates a lack of strong wave action until you reach over halfway across so a lull at the starting line is anticipated but won't last long.

TS Josephine is no quitter but has been taking blows right and left. A bit more impressive this morning on satellite imagery, she still stands the chance of being torn apart but Bermudians should still pay attention as she moves WNW.

TS Hanna is honking up the east coast and now DC and NYC will get a taste of what we have to deal with here in the Caribbean as they are all likely to feel Hanna's TS force winds due to her forward speed around 22 mph. While the rains have been beneficial to Georgia and the Carolina's, the storm surge expected from Hanna along the northeast coast will not be.

Hurricane Ike. Once again, another system proving forecasting as an inexact science. Wind shear has taken it's toll but Ike is still a formidable storm and once the wind shear relaxes after the weekend is over, Ike will likely resurrect himself to his former major hurricane status. This will be a proverbial caged lion once in the Gulf of Mexico as there is no way out but over land and probably in areas already affected this year.

Of more immediate concern is Ike's potential impacts on the Bahama's, Turks and Caicos, the DR and Haiti. The giant island of twin nations Haiti and the Dominican Republic ARE this years hurricane magnets! While the fatality count is officially below 200, there are many more, especially in Haiti with Ike about to provide a nasty blow to the chin of an already glass-chinned opponent. Please pray for these people as many do not have anything left already but their lives from Hanna's and Gustav's earlier attacks.

Cuba and the Florida Keys are next with the mountains of Cuba to have a significant impact on Ike's strength but the Keys are expected to take a strong blow from Ike with storm surge and wind damage probably highest in the upper Keys due to Ike's proximity. Still, all of the Keys are under mandatory evac orders as Ike has deadly potential there as well.

Once in the Gulf. it's Texas or Florida as it stands now. Where exactly is very important but whats' more important is that you are prepared.

Stay safe!

Dave

Friday, September 5, 2008 08:43AM PDT - We don't like Ike
Unfortunately, as forecasted, Ike has indeed started to move a bit more south of due west... Actually, the current forecast takes Ike even more south then earlier. It might even sneak in between Cuba and Florida, although that is still very uncertain because it is so far away... In any cast, the Turks and Caicos and southern Bahamas should prepare for a direct hit by a major hurricane! Although Ike has weakened a bit; the eye has almost disappeared on satellite imagery due to wind shear, conditions should become more favorable again for strengthening. Not good. I hate to have to do this again, but below I listed the Closest Point of Approach (CPA) for many of the islands in its path. Note that I don't include Florida, except Key West. I have however listed latitude/longitude info on many cities in Florida so you can calculate the CPA yourself, as it looks right now it is expected to pass very close by Miami. Also, check out the other 'Ike tools' options like the uncertainty cone, and model spaghetti plots (new feature, see below, all these are pop-ups, and can be closed quickly by clicking anywhere on the image). Don't focus on the track alone, a hurricane is not a point and forecasts beyond 3 days out are prone to large error. At least Josephine is getting weaker and we don't really have to worry about that one anymore.
Finally, let's not forget what is going on in Haiti. Unfortunately I don't have too many hurricane contacts in Haiti, but it is very sad if you read the news stories. The death toll now is at 136, but expected to rise. It is very hard to get food and water to the people affected. "Large areas of Gonaives were still deluged by floodwater on Friday and up to 70 per cent of its 300,000 residents have been without water or food since the storm hit on Monday." Not good. -Gert

Thursday, September 4, 2008 15:19PM PDT - Spaghetti plots
I just added a new feature to the 'tools' section above: model plots. The official forecast track as issued by the National Hurricane Center is based on several different models. If a storm is easy to model they usually quite agree, if there is more uncertainty they can diverge quite a bit. These so-called 'spaghetti plots' therefore more or less represent how confident the NHC is in their own 'official' forecast track. Clicking on the 'models' link above gives you a pop-up window of the spaghetti plot. Clicking anywhere on the plot closes it again, just like with the uncertainty cone images. The image credit goes to South Florida Water Management District website. Hope this will make you more aware how hard it actually is to predict where a hurricane is actually going, esp. a few days away... However, there is an excellent statement below these images: "If anything on this graphic causes confusion, ignore the entire product." Actually, I should use this phrase evertime I write something :-) -Gert.

Thursday, September 4, 2008 08:44AM PDT - Disaster in Haiti
It does not look good in the Gonaives area of Haiti. Gonaives, the fourth largest city in Haiti, home to about 160,000 people was hard hit during Tropical Storm Jeanne in 2004 as well (2,000 people died in that storm) and the flooding now is apparently just as bad. It is hard to get to the affected area, since according to one of our special hurricane correspondents on Haiti, who flew over the region, the roads into the region are under water. The airstrip is under 8 feet of water as well, further complicating matters. I wish that the media in the US was giving a bit more attention to this region. Esp. since the distance between Miami and Port au Prince (the capital of Haiti) is only 900 miles! More info on the situation on news.google.com. Also, ReliefWeb.int is a good source of info.
Meanwhile, dangerous Category 4 hurricane Ike is still on track. People in Haiti might freak out if rumors start going that a big storm is coming (although it looks like Ike will stay north of them). Right now it is still aiming for the Turks&Caicos and Bahamas. I hope it will curve more to the north before it reaches them. Also, Hanna is finally moving, but still battering some islands in the Bahamas. Josephine still far out there in the Atlantic is still expected to turn north before reaching the islands. Not much fun today. Use the tools above to check how close the storm can get to you, and quickly see if you are in the track forecast 'cone of uncertainty' by clicking on the 3 or 5. Stay safe, Gert

Wednesday, September 3, 2008 21:51PM PDT - We don't like Ike
Look at Ike! A little blob with an eye! It has just been upgraded to a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 135mph! It is expected to travel a bit north-west and then make a dive towards the south aiming as it looks right now for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Yes, the same group of islands we have talked about all week regarding Hanna! There are a couple big differences, Hanna didn't move, Ike will move through quickly, Hanna was 'just' a tropical storm/minimal hurricane, Ike will be 'the big one'! Also, Hanna affected a large area with its outflow, causing widespread flooding, Ike is smaller in size and will affect a smaller area. In any case, Ike is going to be very dangerous. If it dips more south then expected then watch out Dominican Republic and Haiti, who are still coping with the extensive flooding caused by Hanna. Not a pleasant season so far... -Gert

Wednesday, September 3, 2008 08:50AM PDT - Go, Hanna, Go!
A quick update... After meandering over the Turks & Caicos over the last couple of days it finally looks like Hanna is inching to the north. It's about time. The large outflow of Hanna has caused enough flooding (again) in Haiti and surrounding areas. Hanna looks a bit better organized on the satellite images and might strengthen again into a hurricane. Of the other two storms out there, Ike and Josephine, only Ike might pose a risk for the TCI and Bahamas if it indeed curves southward after 48 hours. We'll see. Check the tools above to calculate how close the storm can get to you. Try also the new three and five day track uncertainty cone pop-up feature by clicking on the 3 or 5 (as issued by the National Hurricane Center). Stay safe, Gert

Tuesday, September 2, 2008 14:41PM PDT - Uncertainty Cone
I have just added links in the above storm tool-section to the three and five day 'uncertainty cone' of the probable track as issued by the National Hurricane Center. It shows current warnings and watches, but more important, the uncertainty of the track forecast. If you are inside the cone the center of the storm might come over you. But note that if you are outside the cone you might still experience hurricane or tropical storm winds since a hurricane is not a point. Clicking on the '3' or '5' will pop-up a new window, so you can quickly see if you are in the hurricane's path. Clicking on the cone-image in the pop-up will close that window again. Make sure to look at the time stamp, because it usually is updated 20 minutes or so after the new advisories are issued. There is some more info on the NHC website. Let me know if you have any problem using this new feature. -Gert

Tuesday, September 2, 2008 08:55AM PDT - Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, 90L
Even more activity then yesterday. All of a sudden we have 2 new storms, Ike and Josephine. Ike is about 1200 miles east of the Islands and Josephine even further. As it looks right now Ike will pass a few hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands towards the Turks and Caicos. A little early to tell. It might be a Category 2 hurricane by then.
And then we have Hanna. Its center is only about 20 miles west southwest of Great Inagua Island but has dipped more southward then expected. It looks like a big mess on satellite images, reaching as far as Jamaica. Although it is 'just' a tropical storm, since it is not moving much, it is producing heavy rains over the Bahamas, TCI, Hispaniola and Jamaica. Esp. for Haiti another dangerous situation. They already got soaked over the last weeks by Fay, Gustav and now Hanna! Finally, Invest 90L is the area of disturbed weather just east of the Island, which doesn't like it will do much soon... As always, use the tools above to see how close the storms can get to you. Stay safe! -Gert

Monday, September 1, 2008 10:40AM PDT - Gustav, Hanna, Nine and 99L
Lots of activity! Gustav made landfall in Louisiana, luckily not as the 'Big One' that hit Cuba. Look elsewhere on the Web or switch on the TV for extensive coverage. Hanna, the 'forgotten storm', finally unfortunately did get stronger and was just upgraded to a hurricane. Hanna is closing in on the Turks & Caicos Islands (TCI) and Bahamas. What I don't like about Hanna is that it is moving so slowly, only 5mph, and the forecast does show that it will hang around the TCI and Bahamas for a couple of days! The forecasted track hasn't changed much either, 'nicely' following the Bahamian island chain. It is expected to stay a minimal hurricane, but you never know, and given the slow forward speed makes it more dangerous. Use the distance and closest point calculators to see how close Hanna can get to you.
Then we have a new tropical depression, number nine, soon to be called Tropical Storm Ike I am afraid. It is still about 1470 miles east of the Leeward Islands, and so far it looks that it will move north of the Islands in about 3-4 days. But of course it is too early to tell. Use the distance and closest point calculators to see how close Number Nine can get to you. Then finally, we have a new invest, number 99L, even further out there in the Atlantic, it just came off the African coast. This one also looks like it will move north of the islands, but again, way too early to tell. Getting near the peak of Hurricane Season! Stay safe, Gert

Good morning from Tennessee!

Having had no computer the last few days hasn't been all that bad but has made me realize just how good and how lame our weather services and reporting agencies can be. Still, valuable services are being rendered and should be appreciated. The weather guy on CNN should learn to stand OUT of the middle of the picture while talking though!

Gustav is landfalling and weakening at 110 mph with the storm surge still to come. Hanna has her sights set on the southeastern coast of the US with Georgia and North/South Carolina in her sights. Floridians, do not discount this storm. Be prepared just in case as nothing is in stone yet. She looks much more impressive on satellite this morning but wind shear is still holding her down. Hurricane hunters needed to evacuate to Florida and they are flying into both systems.

TD#9 has formed in the Atlantic but I do not have many details yet. Another wave could be declared a depression later today so the possibility of two tropical depressions and a TS at one time on one day is real. Eastern Caribbean, we have been playing dodgeball so far this season. Recurvature should be the word of the week!

Dave

Sunday, August 31, 2008 09:33AM PDT - Gustav and Hanna
Gustav made landfall as a strong Category 4 hurricane on the Isle of Youth (Isla de la Juventud) and the western tip of Cuba. Unfortunately I didn't receive anything from my hurricane correspondents there, but from what I have read there are many injured but luckily no deaths reported. Overnight Gustav weakened a bit, but with 120mph winds is still a Category 3 (major) hurricane. It is forecasted to strengthen again to a Category 4 before making landfall before making landfall near New Orleans. I really hope the storm weakens a bit more though. Watching the news here in the US it is good to see that people in the New Orleans area take this storm very serious.
Let's not forget about our other storm, Hanna. Luckily that has weakened a bit more and doesn't look as impressive anymore on satellite imagery. It has now 50 mph winds, still a strong tropical storm. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for some of the Bahamas and Turks & Caicos islands. It's forecasted path has changed a lot overnight. The models disagree quite a lot on where it will go (see spaghetti plot. It now looks like it turns north right when it reached the Bahamas, and then 'nicely' follows the island chain over San Salvador, Cat Island, Eleuthra and Abaco... It is forecasted to become a hurricane when moving over the Bahamas. Everyone is talking about Gustav but we shouldn't forget about Hanna, people on the Bahamas have to prepare for this one! Use the distance and closest point calculators to see how close it can get to you. Stay safe, Gert

Saturday, August 30, 2008 09:38AM PDT - Major Hurricane Gustav
Look at Gustav now! The Cayman Islands was very lucky, although Little Cayman and Cayman Brac took quite a beating! When Gustav approached Cayman as a strong Tropical Storm, then was upgraded to a hurricane close to Cayman. After passing over the Cayman Islands last night Gustav quickly strengthened into a Category-3 (major) hurricane. Below an image (adapted from the Navy/NRL Monterey website) of Gustav now, about 8 hours after it passed near Cayman. You can see how small the Cayman Islands (lower right) seem relative to the eye of the storm. Quite scary. Below the image a table showing the rapid increase in strength. I have also collected a large number of high-resolution satellite images from the Navy/NRL Monterey website showing Gustav passing through the Cayman Islands. See them at: stormcarib.com/gustav.

Now Gustav is closing in on the Isle of Youth, who every year seem to get hit by one or more major hurricanes! It will then move over the western tip of Cuba, into the Gulf of Mexico. It will stay a safe distance from the Yucatan Peninsula (Cancun, Cozumel) as they are well outside the "three day cone". Gustav is expected to make landfall early Tuesday in Lousiana, in between Houston and New Orleans as a major hurricane. Hope it won't be a Category 4 or 5... For people in the United States I have added many latitude/longitude coordinates of cities along the Gulf Coast to the how close can it get?-tool. So now you can easily calculate the closest point of approach to where you life. Also, I created a real-time satellite image overlay for the Google Maps, which will show that you shouldn't focus on the track alone, but take the size of the hurricane into account (and the uncertainty of long-range forecasts of course).
We shouldn't forget about the other storm, Hanna. So far the 5 day forecast shows that Hanna will stay 'just' a tropical storm. It is expected to barrel throught the Bahamas in about 3 days, so a lot can change. Stay tuned, be prepared, and be safe! -Gert

Good morning!

Hurricane Gustav continues to gain strength as it rumbles towards the south Cuban coast as a Category 2 hurricane and likely to be upgraded to a Cat 3 sometime today, probably by 8 am. His current track aims unfortunately for the Louisana/Texas coastal area but there are several factors which could still influence Gustav's final strike. Florida, don't count your chickens yet either. The stronger and faster the storm, the more likely it takes a more easterly approach which means the Keys and Southern Florida could take some damaging blows. The opposite takes it closer to Texas and with the forecast slowdown near the coast, flooding is an all too real possibility. I hate to preach but you must heed the official warnings. Evacuate if told too. preparations all along the coast should completed quickly if not already completed. This is no party. Just ask Haiti, Caymans, and the DR.

TS Hanna looks like she wants to join the party soon and that spells bad news for the east coast from the Carolina's on down through the Bahama's, Florida and the Turks and Caicos. Not usual for a storm to track southwest from where it is projected to be but the ridging is supposed to become strong enough to do it. Bermuda, you should be watching this as well.

Off to the east, the pretenders to the hurricane throne keep coming. Too early to tell which way these two clowns will go but need to be monitored anyway. We have seen storms do weird things already this season.

Probably won't have computer access for a few days. if so, will update! Stay safe!!

Dave

Friday, August 29, 2008 21:05PM PDT - Cayman
OK, found a little time write a little update. Right now the center of Gustav is passing about 25 miles south of Little Cayman and 50 miles north of Grand Cayman. It won't get much closer then this. It was good to see that Gustav didn't play a trick on us, but just strengthened slowly as was expected. It is packing 80+ mph sustained winds. Still quite a lot of course, but actually nothing compared to Ivan back in 2004 with 165 mph (!!!) winds sustained. So I am quite confident that the Caymans will do fine. It is also good that it went in between, a couple more miles south would have been perfect, but you can't have everything. Not to say that they are not going to a rough time, it is just that it is not going to be catastrophic like Ivan. And to put a lot of people at ease, even during Ivan, only two people died on Cayman. So be patient, all will be fine. Follow the live reports by my special hurricane correspondents on the Cayman-webpage. -Gert

Friday, August 29, 2008 08:49AM PDT - Jamaica and Cayman
Good morning. Sorry, not much time to update. I have been pretty busy with keeping everything running smoothly behind the scenes and answering e-mail, etc. But finally it looks like Gustav passed Jamaica, although the tail-end looks pretty nasty on the satellite, so it's not over for them yet. The good news is that Gustav is still a tropical storm and that it is moving a bit faster. However, winds are now at 65 mph, close to hurricane strength, and 8 mph isn't that fast. Gustav is going towards the Cayman Islands. It is going a bit more north then earlier forecasted, the center should stay about 60 miles from Grand Cayman, good for them, but worse for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. The center is supposed to pass only about 20 miles south of Little Cayman in 13 hours. Be aware of course that tropical storm winds will come much earlier then 13 hours, since the extend outward up to 100 kt (=115 miles) on the north western side (see this advisory). Traveling at 8 mph, this means that tropical storm winds precede the center of the storm by 115/8 = 14 hours, so that's now! Is that right? That's it for now, have to do other things, everybody stay safe! -Gert

Good evening!

Tropical storm Gustav continues to pound Jamaica with heavy rains and near-hurricane force winds while setting it's sights on the Caymans next. Most of the Caymanians (?) know how to prepare for tropical systems so I hope they are ready. From what I have heard so far, they are. After the assault on the Caymans, Gustav's future and where it will strike the Gulf of Mexico's coastline are up for conjecture. Many variables will play into Gustav's intensity and final landfall so no guard should be let down. As was Fay, not an easy storm to forecast so all bets are off at the moment.

Tropical storm Hanna doen't appear worthy of TS status right now as wind shear from the upper level low next to her has been like a lion, gnawing her outer shell to expose her center. Fay was way more impressive before she became a named storm but Hanna has maintained her low-level circulation and that's the difference. Looking more like a deformed moth embryo, Hanna has spread out. Her center is at 20.7N 60.1W but you really wouldn't know it by her previous satellite photo's unless you knew what to look for. Forecast to still move WNW and then pull an Andrew but here again, many variables play into her path down the road.

Eastern Caribbean, it's time to get serious folks! The line-up coming off the African continent is filled with evil intentions, starting with the one exiting now. Forecast models develop every one of these storms so, if you are still procrastinating about preparing, now's your final chance. I mentioned this first one previously and from what I've been following, many predict this to be a classic, powerful, Cape Verde storm. Play time is over.

Dave

Good morning!

With Gustav to the west and Hanna to the east the VI, BVI's and PR are in a tropical storm sandwich! Variable winds have left the seas very flat on all sides and with virtually no breeze, the humidity is sick and the mosquitoes even sicker! As an example of how flat the seas are, imagine skipping a stone across Pillsbury Sound from St. Thomas to St. John! Yes, that flat!

Just to make things even more interesting, a reader showed me one of the longer term model runs yesterday and it showed what looked to be a Cat 1 hurricane sitting on St. Thomas on Sept. 6th. Now, look at the African coast and what do we see? A very well defined wave about to enter the arena. Something to ponder......

Another wave is around 800 miles to the south west of the Cape Verdes but not showing much promise....yet.

And just to add more intrigue to the already complicated tropical situation, we have a disturbance flaring up in the Bay of Campeche to monitor. It's proximity to Mexico should slow or prohibit it's development but you never know.

Oh, throw in a 96L off the coast of South Carolina and we now have a plethora or tropical systems to wonder at, watch, and worry about. Gustav is the king right now with his queen, Hanna not to far behind. Will Hanna pull an Andrew and catch up with her king or will she desert him and kiss Bermuda instead?

Dave

Thursday, August 28, 2008 07:44AM PDT - Surprise!
What a difference a night makes (didn't I start off a couple of days like this as well?). I don't like slow-moving hurricanes because they locally dump too much rain and are so hard to forecast where they will go. I also don't like reading in the advisories that the hurricane hunters found a 'surprise'. I like hurricanes that follow models and nicely move along their predicted path. But Gustav a couple days ago decided to hang around Haiti, killing at least 22 people. The 'surprise' this morning was that the center of Gustav is way more to the south. It also has been moving a bit more south since yesterday. All this has large implications for its projected path, esp. for Jamaica and Grand Cayman. Models for days pretty much agreed that Gustav would travel westward, nicely in between Cuba and Jamaica. But now they predict that it will go along the south coast or over, not staying north of Jamaica. Currently the center is only 45 miles east of Kingston, Jamaica. Gustav has also become much stronger overnight. Last night it was barely a Tropical Storm with 45 mph winds, now it is up to 70 mph, almost hurricane strenght (min. 74 mph). So Cayman and Jamaica, it is getting a bit more serious now! Gustav is moving more to the west now, but still quite slow, so there is the potential again for life threatening flash floods and mudslides. Use the distance and closest point of approach tools to calculate how close and when the storm is near your island.
Also we have a new depression, number Eight, soon to be called Hanna probably. Normally I would be surprised if I read that it is located only about 350 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands, but luckily it is moving to the west-northwest, bypassing the islands. It might curve later more to the west, but I think it will stay north of the Bahamas as well. I just notice that Tropical Depresssion Eight is indeed upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna. Stay safe, Gert

Good evening!

TS Gustav seems to be finally pulling excruciatingly slowly away from the DR and Haiti while continuing to dump copious amounts of rain on already saturated and flooded ground. Seems Gustav learned about slothiness from his sister Fay! Sorry to hear about the fatalities. My best wishes to all in the midst.

The Isle of Youth. South of the western end of Cuba, this poor island seems to get hit EVERY year by a hurricane! Maybe scientists should set up a permanent research center there (with permission from Cuba of course). These residents are hardened veterans when it comes to tropical cyclones and their preparedness should be a lesson to all.

Current tracks take Gustav as still a Cat 3 and maybe a Cat 4 into the Gulf with New Orleans the bullseye. This is by no means a certainty as there are too many factors at the moment to correctly forecast where Gustav will make landfall. That "cone of uncertainty" will live up to it's name for sure with this system; again, just like Fay, a forecasting nightmare!

95L off to theNortheast of PR and the VI is spreading out and has continued to linger; having gained valuable lurking experience from it's predecessors. It now has hung on so long, it might make a name for itself after all. Time will tell as always. It is still contributing to the instability in the local atmosphere as is that pesky upper level low which will keep things very interesting in the coming days.

If anyone wants to know why it is sticky outside, they need to look no further than the current water vapor image. YUK! Moisture, moisture everywhere! Not a dry slot of air or SAL to be seen. Yes folks, it's that time of year!

Dave

Wednesday, August 27, 2008 07:46AM PDT - Weaker Gustav
Good news and bad news. Gustav is basically stalled over Haiti. The mountainous terrain has weakened Gustav to a tropical storm. That is good. However, since it is hardly moving it is dumping lots of rain which is always a big problem for Haiti because of the deforestation in the mountains. These torrential rains will likely cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
The forecasted track hasn't changed much, moving between Jamaica and Cuba and over Cayman Brac, where the center will be in about 2 days. By that time Gustav is expected to be a Category-1 Hurricane again. Hopefully not more, but intensity has been proven very hard to predict and there is a lot of warm water ahead of Gustav. We'll see. Use the distance and closest point of approach tools to calculate how close and when the storm is near your island. Also don't forget to read Dave's posting from earlier this morning below. Be prepared and stay safe, Gert

Good morning!

Last night, while Gustav "A La King" was being force-fed to Haiti with the scraps falling on the Dominican Republic, the Virgin Islands were treated to a lightning spectacle around 8:30 pm which led to some residents staring at the sky as if in a catatonic state while heavy rains lashed the western end of St. Thomas. This morning saw an orange glow through dark clouds as the sky woke up but the light rainfall after midnight had stopped for the time being.

As I mentioned in a previous report, I hope New Orleans, Mobile and the rest of the Gulf Coast are serious about the potential impacts of a major hurricane in the form of Gustav. The possibility exists, Gustav, currently seemingly stalled over the southern Haitian peninsula could still go west and not curve but that seems unlikely at this point. Another, seemingly innocuous player is trying to enter the Gulf of Mexico arena as well in the form of a sleeper: 95L which has almost been lost in the Gustav frenzy. Development is still possible with this system and the east coast as well as Bermuda should be monitoring this over the next few days.

Is it possible the mountains of Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba could be the "Rocky" of the hurricane world and tear Gustav apart? If it doesn't turn over water and restrengthen, yes. Likely hero? Not! Although it would not come as a total surprise. I would be remiss if I didn't mention all possibilities, no matter how remote.

The Atlantic satellite this morning shows diminished activity with our two pretenders to the east with another rookie poised to exit the African coast. Don't let that fool you. We've seen rapid development before so I hope we have all learned a lesson. That goes for the GOM as well, even more so given the water temps and low wind shear.

The upper level low to the north-northeast of Puerto Rico is falling south as Max mentioned previously. This should eventually head westward but not before it further muddles the action around the VI and PR. Mixing with an already unstable atmosphere and moisture being drawn up from the south-west, this upper level low could be the catalyst for a drenching.

Hey, has anyone noticed a humongous increase in that nasty critter population called mosquitoes?

Dave

Tuesday, August 26, 2008 08:57AM PDT - One more thing
When you use the how close can it get-tool to calculate the closest point of approach for your island, don't forget to use the new satelllite overlay feature I implemented recently. When you click the checkbox below the Google Map you will see the current satellite image. This shows how big the storm is relative to your island and that you shouldn't focus on the track alone because a hurricane is not a point. Clicking the checkbox again removes the overlay. Stay safe, Gert

Tuesday, August 26, 2008 07:51AM PDT - More South!
What a difference a night makes. Gustav is on an even more southernly track. For example, last night's 11PM advisories had the center of Gustav pass by Cayman Brac at about 91 miles, the 6AM advisories had the closest point of approach (CPA) at 26 miles, and the 11AM advisories show the CPA at only 4 miles! So Cayman and Jamaica be alert!
Also, after probably some weakening when it skirts Haiti (the center is now only about 45 miles from Port au Prince) it will pass over warm SSTs (sea surface temperature) with low wind shear, so conducive to more strengthening. It might become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) in 72 hours. Below again some more CPAs, as always, and what we see now, things are not set in stone, and don't focus on the track only, a hurricane is not a point. Also, don't forget to read Dave's posting from earlier this morning. Stay safe, Gert

Good morning!

With TS Fay having dumped copious amounts of rain already, the last thing Haiti and the DR need is more rain. Jamaica and the Caymans should have finished preparations by now as Gustav is forecast to grow to Cat 2 status by tomorrow afternoon and a wobble to the west or southwest puts them directly into Gustav's path. Once the interaction with land is over with and Gustav enters the hot, juicy waters of the GOM, a Category 4 or 5 storm is a very real possibility. From a historical perspective, many of the previous storms have not recurved and plowed into Texas or Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. But that's history and it doesn't always repeat itself. New Orleans, Mobile, Houston, I hope your planning and getting things in order. We've seen what Katrina did. That's not the kind of history we want a repeat of.

The other area this will potentially affect is our economy, especially if Gustav takes on the oil industry in the Gulf. Oil futures will shoot up, stocks will fall, fuel prices will rise, and depending on landfall, major disruptions in supply will occur. Not much we can do about those things. Unfortunately, the by-products of systems linger long after the storm is gone.

Off to the northeast, 95L still lingers but is feeling some effects of the outflow of Gustav. Still, the east coast and particularly Bermuda needs to give it a hard look. Upper level winds are a bit hostile right now so rapid development is not likely.

Looking up hurricane alley, two lows are making their way across their promised land. One is at 12N 34W with a low at 1009 mb and is practically stationary. The second is at 15.5N 24W but moving WSW. Both of these need some paying attention to as 96L is up next in the batting order.

No computer at home hampers my reporting for the moment but I'll contribute as much as I can. Stay safe and prepared!!

Dave

Monday, August 25, 2008 20:03PM PDT - Gustav
Not surprisingly, soon after I wrote in this morning Tropical Depression Seven was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gustav. There are however two new more or less unexpected developments regarding its path and strength. Now it looks like Gustav will indeed take a more westernly (southernly) track. It will still skirt Haiti (the center should be there in 24 hours), but it might also stay mostly south of Cuba. This is bad news, since now it interacts less with the landmasses and mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba, so it can strengthen more. Indeed, now Gustav is expected to easily become a hurricane within a day. Jamaica and Cayman should be on alert as well. Below the closest point of approach of the center of the storm for a couple locations (based on the 11PM advisories). Stay safe, Gert

Monday, August 25, 2008 08:44AM PDT - Number Seven
Finally 94L was upgraded to Tropical Depression Seven. Looking at the satellite pictures it will probably be Tropical Storm Gustav soon. The computer models don't agree at all on where it will go (see spaghetti plot) but the offical NHC forecast takes it over Haiti and then Cuba, so to the north of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. But since there appears to be such a large uncertainty they should keep an eye on this system as well, because it wouldn't surprise me if it would go a bit west of the official NHC track. The good news is that it is not expected to become a hurricane in the next couple of days, but even that I am not sure about. Use the tools above to see how far it is or calculate the closest point of approach. We'll see, and we are prepared aren't we? -Gert

Good morning and a pleasant Sunday to all!

Some clouds and a few showers are on tap from 94L but most of the convection is far south with the 1008 mb low at 12.1N 64.6W. Top winds estimated at 25 mph moving WNW. This will probably be a depression by tomorrow morning and Jamaica, Cuba, The Caymans, and even points farther west should keep an active eye on this system. The computer models are all over the place as they usually are with a weak system so don't put too much reliance on them just yet. Moisture ahead of it has replaced, for the most part, dry air and there is no Saharan Dust to speak of. There is a another vigorous wave just in front of it plowing the way, so to speak so rapid development isn't expected. The SHIPS intensity model does bring it to Cat 1 status in 72 hours though.

95L could become a hurricane in the next 3-4 days but at this point, I expect Bermuds to have a better chance of getting in it's way than the eastern US coast. We'll have to check the steering currents down the road but it should not have any effect on the Caribbean.

I mentioned at the end of my previous post an active wave that was within a couple of days exiting the African Coast and it is about to now with a 1008 mb low already in it's midst. This should be labeled 96L over the next 24-48 hours (assuming the wave in front of 94L doesn't inherit it first) and needs to be monitored for potential huge development. SST's (Sea Surface Temperature's) are 83-85 across Hurricane Alley (about 0.7C higher than normal), Saharan Dust, except to the north, is pretty much a non-entity, moisture levels have improved, and wind shear is a modest 5-15 knots.

Fay, Fay, Fay, the tourist that won't go away! I've experienced copious amounts of rainfall here in the Virgin Islands before but she has been ridiculous! The last NHC advisory has been issued so Fay now becomes a remnant low but an additional 4-8 inches are possible over Alabama, Louisianna, and parts of Georgia before she is carried away into history by an approaching front in a couple of days.

Dave

Good morning!

First, it took what seemed an eternity for Fay to be classified; now, she is wearing out her welcome but soon, she will run out of her Methusala pills! And while the Florida Aquifer and Lake Okeechobee enjoy a renaissance of water, it's too much in so short of time.

To the east we look. We have candidate 94L and candidate 95L waiting their turn in the next installment of storm season 2008. None of the computer models project rapid development with Saharan Dust to the east, north, and west plus, in front of 94L, the same condition which slowed Fay down considerably early on: dry air in front. Convection has flared and both look like little balls of trouble and it looks like we shall see some showers and thunderstorms soon. Development is a possibility with wind shear on the moderate side and we are towards the end of August where our historical spike in tropical activity usually starts. Also, anonther wave set for departure from the African Coast in a day or so looks interesting.

Dave

Tuesday, August 19, 2008 07:21AM PDT - Fay and 94L
Tropical storm Fay made landfall in Florida earlier this morning close to Naples. Luckily it never strengthened into a hurricane. The Florida Keys report litte problems.
Far out in the Atlantic there is another invest, 94L. Things don't look that great anymore for this to develop into a tropical depression, but we'll keep monitoring it. It is still pretty far away from the islands. A quick back on the envelope calculation on how far: the wave is at about 13N, 38W. The islands at about 61W, which is 61-38 = 23 degrees longitude. At this latitude 1 degree longitude is about 67 miles (see the Unit conversion section in the Practical Guide). So 23 degrees is about 23*67 = 1541 miles. The Tropical Weather Outlook below says it is traveling near 15mph, so to cover 1541 miles takes about 1541/15 is around 100 hours, or 4 days. -Gert

Monday, August 18, 2008 07:27AM PDT - Fay
The center of Fay just emerged from the Cuban coast, on its way to Florida. The projected path is not more to the west, which is good, since Fay doesn't have too much time to strengthen before making landfall. Right now it is expected to go straight over the Florida Keys.
I shifted the satellite image above a bit northwards from its more Caribbean focus to show Fay. On the Closest Point of Approach-tool and How close is it-tool I also listed a number of latitude/longitude coordinates for many cities along the Gulf Coast so you can calculate when and how close the storm might get to you. However, as always, do not solely focus on the 'eye', a hurricane is not a point. If you look at the satellite image even the Bahamas are being affected. Stay safe. -Gert

Sunday, August 17, 2008 10:45AM PDT - Fay
Fay passed over the Dominican Republic and Haiti as a tropical storm. Unfortunately there were at least 4 storm related casualties. Right now the center is just south of Cuba. Since the northern part of its outflow is over land it can only strengthen slowly, if at all. It will curve to the north and pass over Cuba and then on to Florida. The forecast models diverge quite a lot on where exactly the center will make landfall (see spaghetti plot). But the official forecast takes it over the Florida Straits to the Florida Keys and the west of coast Florida. At that time it might have strengthened into a hurricane. If the track is more to the west and Fay stays over water longer it has more time to strenghten. The islands south of Fay, 'gold medal nation' Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, luckily report little problems. -Gert

Good afternoon again!

Houston, we've solved a problem. TD#6 is finally born! Boy, was THAT a long, drawn-out birthing process!!!! This will finally force the NHC to act as the latest computer models show several projected tracks into the Gulf of Mexico hitting the west coast of Florida, or the Panhandle, go through the middle of Florida across the Keys, or east coast menacing all up to North Carolina. This system has been, and still is, a stubborn system to forecast but if it reaches those warm waters of the Gulf or even the Gulf Stream, this thing could be a major, major problem.

Dave

Good afternoon!

My meager mitigation attempts done pretty good last night after the heavens opened up around 11:30 pm as I did not have to use the wet vac once!!! I think it has been 3-4 years since I've said that!

The rains have moved on and the muggyness is super juicy with partly sunny, fluffy cumulus cloud skies for the moment although lingering moisture through the wekend is forecast.

The roaring debate goes on as to whether this disturbance was, in fact, a depression or even a TS as it passed over last night but the fact remains, while there was a mi-level closed circulation, one was not found at the surface at the times the flights were in the system. Satellite loops sure looked otherwise and this system will be debated for years. it still might make Fay status if it survives it's encounter with the DR and Haitian mountains. If so, it will probably get very ugly very quickly for Florida and others.

Off to the east, another wannabe wave is getting it's act together masquerading as reborn 93L. As has been said repeatedly the last 4 days about 92L, 93L is getting better organized and has the potential to turn into a tropical depression over the next few days. This is a recording! Sorry, couldn't help myself! LOL... Computer models show 93L recurving before reaching the islands. It's close enough though, 15N 49W, for us to still be wary. Behind that, there's plenty of activity with a wave just off the African coast.

Dave

Good evening!

OK, so, for the moment, I will eat a bit of professional crow as the hurricane hunters and NOAA have not found the criteria they need to meet TD status much less TS status as I figured it would be by 5pm. Normally, this wouldn't bother me but this is the best and biggest non-declared depression/storm I have ever witnessed. I have monitored many a blog and professional insight today and most are in concurrence this is, in fact at least a TD (#6) if not Fay already! The issue is: does it meet the exact citeria of closed circulation and winds. The trips so far into the system have been informative but non-conclusive as to the closed-circulation issue. I understand the criteria necessary for scientific reasons and obviously more flights more are scheduled but whether this is a depression or minimal tropical storm is a moot point at the moment for us in the Virgin Islands. Another 5-10 mph will not make much of a difference here in the territory damage wise but declaration-wise, it will for the NHC and the Federal authorities. Besides, it's almost upon us!

Most blogs, non-bloggers and professionals are, as usual, not paying much attention to the Northern Antilles but to the CONUS, particularly, Florida and the Gulf of Mexico down the road. I understand their concern. But, what about the United States Virgin Islands? What about Puerto Rico? They still haven't, after all these years, acknowledged that Puerto Rico and the USVI are part of the US. They are worried about themselves and the mainland; not much attention is ever paid to our islands except to say "It's close to the Northern Caribbean and still 4-7 days from the mainland!" This is a main complaint from many islanders; routinely falling on deaf ears with not much coverage allocated to our area. Sad.....

This to here-to-for un-named system has the potential to become a major hurricane down the road if it does't interact with the mountainous terrain of the DR and coast of Puerto Rico. Regardless of what is transpiring now, all west should really pay attention.

My generator and wet vac are on standby. Deck furniture will be stowed and my dog, Brandy, will enjoy a night inside. Time to say goodnight, stay safe and be prepared. More in the morning!

Dave

Good afternoon!

At the 5 pm advisory and maybe before, a TD should be declared and TS Fay not too far behind. Preliminary indications are a closed center was found and they might jump it to TS status skipping TD. More wind and rain for the northern islands than previously allowed!

Where it goes down the road might not be more firmer until 4-6 more computer models are run. The northern islands will get a good lashing tonight and tomorrow with PR receiving copious amounts of rain and probable flooding. After that, if the DR mountains don't weaken or kill it, the makings of a strong, quickly intensifying hurricane are possible with tracks to include South Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Due to it's close proximity to the mainland, the NHC is cutting it close on it's declarations!

A flash flood watch is in effect here in the USVI, eastern PR, Vieques and Culebra until Friday afternoon for the moment. Scattered showers and a TSTM or two have passed by so far with the worst/rest only a matter of time.

More later!

Dave

Good morning!

I had to laugh at the size of the 92L sitting a mere 175 miles to the east of the Northern Antilles as the overall size of this thing is huge and it confounds most people as it's already bigger than a few of the smaller hurricanes we've seen! Most of the active convection is above 17 N stretching to 21N with the 1009 low (I've seen 1007 as well) around 16N, 61W. Curent models forecast a much closer impact to the Northern Antilles thatn previous model runs and it is still possible to move more W than WNW and bring even more rain, gusty winds, TSTM's and localized flooding. These things do not always follow the computer model runs and those along the east coast of Florida and yes, even you, Savannah Georgia, need to start to watch this system with a more wary eye while we here in the northern islands should have already prepared.

Hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly today and they will see if a closed circulation has developed. There is closed circulation evident but it's displaced from the lower to middle levels. In other words, instead of both circulations standing on 16N, 61W, one is standing there and the other may be at 16N but at 62W. Not much difference but to an organizing system, it is a big difference in structure and it's strengthening abilities.

Another low is around 12N 43W but appears to have wimped out overnight. 93L exercised it's wimp clause but there is a sizable little blob around 11N 26W which is of interest already as well as a wave over central Africa of some note. Don't count any of these systems out as we've seen rapid intensification already this year from a seemingly non-threatening system in Edouard. The Saharan Dust Level, according to the latest satellite imagery has diminished and dry air is running low as well. Two of our best tropical system killers are almost out of gas!

Dave

Good morning!

By now, most everyone has heard the updated 2008 tropical system forecast and it isn't pretty. While the African continent appears quiet, almost as if on cue, we have three waves to gaze and wonder at off to the east. It's a good bet the 1st one, now 92L will make a name for itself with wind shear on the low side, Saharan Dust thinning out a bit, and SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures) which are quite conducive to storm formation. There is also a large pocket of extra warm waters stretching several hundred miles east of Barbados which could lead to rapid development of this or subsequent waves. The 2 waves behind 92L do not look like slouches either.

Several of the more reliable computer models have not run yet so we are anxiously waiting for those. In the meantime, the ones that have run show a track through the Windwards around Guadeloupe with the SHIP's model growing this into a Category 1 hurricane within 3 days. This by no means is a guarantee of a storm as we have seen Invests come and go but this one, as well as the other two behind it, have better potential than the previous ones.

So, with it's close proximity already, there is not alot of time for you complacent folks out there to get prepared if you haven't already. NHC has this turning more WNW over the next 24 hours but it is so low at 10.5N that no one in the Eastern Caribbean, except maybe the ABC islands, are excluded from this system's potential path. It appears a surface circulation is evident and I won't be surprised if a depression is declared at the 11 am or 5 pm advisories.

Have a fun rest of the weekend!

Dave

Saturday, August 9, 2008 11:35AM PDT - New forecast + Cayman Video
There is not much happening in the Atlantic right now. Yeah! But a new updated forecast by Klotzbach, Gray, et al came out earlier this week. Because we have already had five named storms and more favorable conditions in the Atlantic they had to increase their forecast from the June prediction. They forecast 13 more named storms. Seven of these are expected to reach hurricane strength, 4 will be Category 3 or higher. This brings the total for 2008 at 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes of which 5 Cat-3. That is quite a lot above normal: long term average is 9.6, 5.9 and 2.3, resp. The full report can be read on the Colorado State University website.
On another note, Parisa at Current TV shared with me a video about life in the Caymans and the experience of preparing for and experiencing hurricanes as well as its aftermath and environmental impacts. It is nicely done, showing how your prespective changes once you have been through one, Ivan in 2004 in this case. I have embedded the video below, click on 'play' to start. -Gert

Monday, August 04, 2008 9:21AM PDT - Edouard
Tropical storm Edouard formed yesterday off the Louisiana Coast. It is moving quite slowly to the Texas/Louisiana coast where it is expected to make landfall tomorrow morning. It doesn't look like it will become a hurricane, but slow moving storms like these are still dangerouse because they can locally produce lots of rain.
Elsewhere we have 90L Invest a couple hundred miles east of the islands. It is already at about 19.5N, above the ~18N latitude line of the islands and is expected to turn more to the north, so even if it gets organized we should be ok with that as well.
Finally back home in California so no more St.Maarten weather updates from me. Here it is expected to be sunny, but couple of degrees cooler then St.Maarten, a pleasant 77F, with no humidiy. -Gert

Thursday, July 31, 2008 09:21AM AST - Cloudy
After spending almost three weeks on St.Maarten we finally have a change in weather. It is pretty much overcast and had some thunder and showers earlier in the morning. On the satellite images (using the My Satelllite tool) it looks like we are under some 'red' skies indicating rain. The satellite image is about 30-60 minutes delayed but it hasn't rained in the last hour so it looks worse then it is. At this moment it is starting to rain, I am sitting under a gazebo so hopefully it is just a short shower again without too much wind so that it won't soak my laptop. -Gert

Good morning!

A look at the most recent satellite images reads happiness in two areas: Water truck haukers are having a $$$ ball in the Northern Antilles as a few weeks of no significant rain has drastically reduced cistern supplies costing significant dollars to replace, especially after the price of fuel rose and, the most important, no tropical systems on the immediate horizon. I last heard a price for a 21 ton (5,200 gallons) truck of water to the east end was a bit over $ 500!! Heard, not confirmed but still....

As always, we look at the bad with the good and potential bad down the road is far off to the east with the latest wave to depart the African Coast. It's getting that time of year folks where each one has evil potential. I am looking also at the one located in the heart of Africa a few days away from exiting the coast.

In addition, Souffiere Hills, that sputtering volcano in Montserrat, has belched large amounts of ash into the atmosphere so the Virigin Islands and Puerto Rico should see extra haze that should not all be attributed to Saharan Dust.

Complacency has no house in the Caribbean! If it is in yours, kick it out!

Dave

Friday, July 25, 2008 09:08AM AST - Quiet
Dolly is petering out over Texas. Because it slowed down, Dolly has caused a lot of flooding. Locally as much as 25" of rain fell! Elsewhere it's relatively quiet. No Invests, so that's a good sign. Let's keep it that way for a while so I can continue my vacation in peace. We are now staying in the Orient Bay area of French St.Martin. Weather still the same, maybe a bit more clouds. I am on the Atlantic side again, the water looks pretty calm and St.Barths can be clearly seen in the distance. -Gert

Wednesday, July 23, 2008 09:12AM AST - Dolly
Dolly is close to making landfall close to Brownsville, Texas, near the US/Texas border. It might even strengthen to a Category-2 hurricane before doing so. Elsewhere we have Invest 97L, a tropical wave in the far Atlantic, near the Cape Verde islands. Computer models show that it will curve north well before it reaches the islands.
Weather on St.Martin: blues skies, some clouds and we had a little rain shower this morning. Another nice day for the beach. -Gert

Monday July 21, 7:40AM AST - Dolly
Finally Invest 94L which we have been following for a long time has been upgraded to tropical storm Dolly. It is our fourth named storm already! It's center is currently over land very close to the Cancun area. It is expected re-appear in the Gulf of Mexico and might strenthen into a hurricane before making landfall somewhere in the western Gulf.
Meanwhile another strong tropcal wave has rolled off the coast of Africa which we will have to monitor. Hopefully it will fall apart soon... For St.Martin weather see yesterday's or the day before. Although it apparently has rained quite a lot overnight. The pillows of the lounge chairs on our deck had puddles of water in them. -Gert

Sunday July 20, 9:55AM AST - Cayman
For the records, yesterday tropical depression Three off the US coast was upgraded to tropical storm Cristobal. More of interest to us is still Invest 94L. It has already passed Jamaica and on the satellite image it is now a big white blob over Cayman. No beach weather for them today. Hope there won't be too much flooding.
Here on St.Maarten all is nice. We now stay in the French Terres Basses overlooking Simpson Bay Lagoon. Blue skies with some clouds, nice breeze, no white caps. Enjoy your Sunday! -Gert

Saturday July 19, 10:25AM AST - 94L?
Invest 94L still has no closed circulation so cannot be called a depression. Nevertheless it has caused significant weather in Hispaniola. Luckily it has moved on, limiting rainfall totals (and possible mudslides). The wave is still forecasted to travel over Jamaica/Cayman and then the Yucatan peninsula.
One of the three invests was actually upgraded to a tropical depression, but that one is of the coast off the US and no danger to the islands.
Weather on St.Maarten still the same, blue skies, some clouds. No white caps, pretty good visibility. -Gert

Friday July 18, 9:25AM AST - One storm, three invests
With one storm and three invests things are heating up! Invest 95L is the wave I wrote about yesterday, and about to move into Nicaragua and Honduras. 96L is off the US coast, not really of concern to us. And 94L is our good old one. Today it looks quite impressive on satellite imagery, and looks close to being upgraded to a depression. It is moving towards Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The one storm is Bertha, which doesn't want to give up!
The weather on St.Maarten..., blue skies with some clouds. The ocean is pretty flat, so excellent snorkeling weather here at Dawn Beach. -Gert

Thursday July 17, 9:35AM AST - Still no depression
Yesterday a reconnaissance airplane had checked out Invest 94 and couldn't find a closed circulation, so it wasn't eligible to be called a tropical depression. Today Invest 94L looks even less organized. It has mostly passed over the Windward Islands already and is on its way to the ABC islands where they can also expect some 'squally' weather.
There is another strong tropical wave more to the west in the Caribbean Sea. That will move over Nicaragua/Honduras later today. It looks pretty impressive on satellite imagery so there will be a lot of rain. Hopefully it won't lead to dangerous mudslides in the mountainous areas.
Elsewhere Bertha is still hanging as a strong tropical storm about 350 miles to the east/north east of Bermuda. So I guess that people in Europe might be in for some weather later.
Here on St.Maarten, reporting from Dawn Beach, the weather is the same, blue skies with some clouds. St.Barts looks a bit hazy, so visibility not that great. Not too many white caps today. Again, a nice day for the beach. -Gert

Wednesday July 16, 10:15AM AST - Invest 94L
So far Invest 94L hasn't gotten its act together, and it is already pretty close to Barbados. It might still become a tropical depression but conditions are not optimal. The modeled track forecast is pretty much due west for the next couple of days, so the Windward Islands and then later on the ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao) will be in for some nice weather, but no hurricane or anything as it looks right now. The Weather Underground website is down for me so cannot check too much. But in any case, Invest 94L doesn't look like a bit threat at this time, but things might become more favorable once it crossed the Windward islands.
Here on St.Maarten we have a bit of blue, a bit of clouds, and sometimes a shower. Nice beach weather in any case. -Gert

Monday July 14, 10:25PM AST - Bertha passed
Finally Bertha passed Bermuda. It went just east of the island as a strong tropical storm. Not too many problems expected or reported by on of our correspondents, Keith on Bermuda. However, I read about three Bertha related deaths, not in Bermuda, but New Jersey. Apparently due to the heavy surf and rip-currents. More at Google News.
And then we have this Invest 94L out in the Atlantic. It is still not a tropical depression, and hopefully it will stay that way for a while. As Dave hinted at, I don't have a good reputation when I am visiting some Caribbean island in the Summer... We'll see what happens. I will try to post updates, but internet at the place we are staying was out for awhile, but hopefully all has been resolved... -Gert

Sunday July 13, 10:00AM AST - Bertha downgraded
Greetings from St.Maarten, looking out over beautiful Dawn Beach! Blue skies with a few puffy white clouds. I can see St.Barths quite clearly, so visibility is pretty good. Elsewhere, Bertha hasn't moved much over the last day or so. Since it was churning up the water under it, bringing cooler water to the surface, Bertha has weakened a bit. It has now been downgraded to a tropical storm. Bertha is expected to pass close by Bermuda Monday night.
Elsewhere..., there is a new area of interest, Invest 94L. It is about 1500 miles east of the islands, pretty far south. We'll see what happens. Use the tools above to for satellite imagery and model forecasts of 94L. -Gert

Friday July 11, 3:30PM PDT - Slowing down
Bertha is slowly moving toward Bermuda. Right now it looks that it might pass by as close as 150 miles as a Category 1 hurricane late Sunday/early Monday. It is a big hard to predict the exact path with slow moving hurricanes, so Bermuda should keep an eye on this one.
On another note, tonight I leave for St.Maarten where we'll be three weeks, so my next report will be from there. Unfortunately I will not be able to update the beta-version of the closest point of approach tool during that time. Finally, please, no hurricanes in the next 3 weeks so that I can enjoy my vacation! -Gert

Thursday July 10, 8:45AM PDT - Inching closer
The closest point of approach is getting closer again for Bermuda. Now it is about 165 miles. The models don't all agree that well, so it might get closer by the time it reaches Bermuda (Sunday).
For people who enjoy the 'how close can it get' tool and want to try something new, I am working on overlaying the track forecast with an actual weather image on the Google Maps I use. There is a 'satellite view' option in Google Maps, but it is not actually a changing weather map, but a static 'picture' of the earth, a bit confusing. In the new version I have now included an option below the map to overlay the track with the latest GOES enhanced satellite image which you can toggle on/off.
It makes it easy to see if the storm is actually following the forecasted track or diverting from it (hopefully to the left). It will also show the size of the hurricane relative to the distance to Bermuda. You can now try the beta-version, but keep in mind that although the satellite image will be the latest available, I still have to manually update the track forecast, so check the date above the form. You will also have to hit the 'back' button if you want to select a different island (otherwise it will use the original version again). Enjoy! -Gert

Wednesday July 9, 8:45AM PDT - Bermuda
Bermuda is not totally out of the woods yet. Earlier it looked like Bertha was passing well east of Bermuda, now the forecast is a bit closer, though still pretty far away. The closest point of aproach is about 200 miles (Sunday morning), a good distance. The advisories indicate some uncertainty with how quickly Bertha will steer to the east, away from Bermuda, and some models (see links to track images under Bertha in the Quick Hurricane Resource Navigator, QHWRN) take it pretty close. It is now a Category 1 hurricane, and might strengthen a bit more before reaching Bermuda. Bertha is not over yet. -Gert

Monday July 7, 10:00AM PDT - Hurricane Bertha
Tropical storm Bertha was just upgraded to Hurricane Bertha, the first hurricane of the season. It looks like a pretty sure miss for the islands now. Only Bermuda is in its direct path. While first it looked like Bertha was going to pass on the left (west) of Bermuda, now it looks like it will pass on the right. Lets hope this trend will continue and that it will stay a safe distance from Bermuda. Right now the 'extrapolated' closest point of approach to Bermuda is only 70 miles. But it will be another 5 days or so before its there, lots can change in the meantime. Good news for the continental USA though, since it is unlikely to make landfall there. -Gert

Sunday July 6, 5:50PM PDT - In sight...
Well, on the above satellite image we can see Bertha now. It looks really like a strong tropical storm on the image, and it is expected to strengthen into a hurricane tomorrow or so. Good news though, the center of the storm is already at latitude 18.1 North. That is about the same latitude of the northern islands, and since it is moving to the west-northwest it should pass well north of the islands. Bermuda however should be closely monitoring this storm. But having lived on Bermuda for awhile, I know they can easily sustain a Category 1 Hurricane -Gert

Saturday July 5, 11:15AM PDT - Closer?
The track forecasts over the last couple days take Bertha closer and closer to the islands, showing a more southernly track then earlier thought. One of the models, the well respected UKMET, aims Bertha almost directly towards the islands! Right now however, the official forecast by the National Hurricane Center still keeps a safe distance of over 300 miles between Bertha and the islands. Although Bertha is now expected to become a hurricane in a about 3 days, the strongest winds will be away from the islands. Bertha is still pretty far out there so things can (and will) change. Not out of the woods yet, but so far looking pretty good. Use the Closest Point of Approach tool to calculate when and how close the storm can get to your island. -Gert

Thursday July 3, 8:45AM PDT - Bertha
Tropical Depression number Two was just upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha. According to the advisories it is not expected to become a hurricane in the next 5 days (but they have been wrong before), also it will veer well to the north before it reaches the island (but they been wrong before). Check out the tools above for calculating distance and closest point of approach to your island. Let me know if you have any difficulty or comments about the new (Google) maps used with the closest point of approach tool.
Like Dave wrote earlier today, Invest 93 has a hard time getting organized, but there will be some 'squally' weather over some of the islands in the next couple of days. Also, check above for satellite images and track. -Gert

Wednesday July 2, 2:00PM PDT - A new invest
Third posting of the day... A new area of disturbed weather with possibilities of developing in a tropical depression has been identified, invest 93. This time closer to home, just above Barbados. So far any development according to computer models seems slow. Maybe a tropical storm in 2 days but it is not expected to become a hurricane at this point. Possibly due to the hostile wind-shearing environment in the Caribbean at this time. We'll see what happens. We are ready. Check out the links above for satellite images and tracks. -Gert

Wednesday July 2, 1:00PM PDT - False alarm
On the NAVY/NRL website they started naming 92L invest a tropical depression earlier this morning. Now it's back to just an invest. So false alarm, no tropical depression 2 yet... -Gert

Wednesday July 2, 9:00AM PDT - Tropical Depression 2
Looks like 92Invest just off the coast of Africa will be Tropical Depression 2 by the next advisories. So far all models show that it will veer to the north well before it reaches the islands. However, they also forecast that it might be a hurricane in 48 hours, so we need to keep an eye on it. -Gert

Tuesday July 1, 10:25AM PDT - Invest 92
There is an area of disturbed weather just off the coast of Africa that might develop into something. It should not be a threat for the next week or so since it is so far away, and first indications show that it probably go well north before it even reaches the islands. You can use the tools above for tracking and satellite imager.
Quite unusual though to have something develop that close to the African continent, esp. this early in the season when the sea surface temperature is not that high. We usuallly don't see these so-called 'Cape Verde' storms until later in the season. -Gert

Monday June 23, 9:25PM PDT - One day off...
The above GOES image is saying that it is a day and a couple minutes old. It (or better my script) is also suggesting that the NASA server is down, which it isn't. Somehow my source for the satellite image is dating the image wrong, giving it yesterday's date but the correct time. For now, since one day is 1440 minutes, just subtract that from the number of minutes ago and you get the right age. Hope it gets fixed soon. -Gert

For those of you locally, I've started to do the weekend weather forecast (started this weekend) for the Ackley Media Group, comprised of 4 different radio stations (1 AM, 3 FM). They are Radio 1 (AM 1000), KISS-FM. 105JAMZ, and 96.1 Pirate Radio. I'ts not TV, but I like radio. It reaches a wider audience as almost everybody has a radio on, but not necessarily watch or even get the TV channel. Plus, I don't have to dress up in a suit and tie every night after working 8-10 hours at my full-time position! I'll do it again next weekend and then not for the month of July and then back for good in August.

Thursday June 19, 10:15PM PDT - I am caving...
Sorry everybody, I have decided to finally, after running this website for over 10 years, to feature ads on a select number of pages of the website. Unfortunately the donations just don't bring in enough money to cover the expenses of stormCARIB. Although my webhost, pairNetworks and GoBeach Vacations are very supportive, I would like to at least get compensated for my direct expenses. The "Ads by Google" seems to be the least annoying, so hopefully everyone can live with it. It will only be on the front page for now, but slowly propagate to the remainder of the website. - Gert

Invest 91L looks to be spreading some moisture our way (awesome news) while giving the rain-parched areas of the southern Caribbean some relief as well. Don't see much in the way of development with this as the biggest part should interact with South America. What continues through the Caribbean should encounter nasty wind shear until it makes it to Central America where conditions are much more favorable. Behind it is another wave close at hand which should bring more active weather to the Northern Antilles as well as the Windwards. There's dust behind that and then the next wave should arrive around Thursday as it is just off the African Coast.

Wednesday June 11, 10:45AM PDT - Invest 91L
We have our first invest (area of potential development) of the season. It is very far south, about 150 miles southeast of Trinidad. Don't expect too much of it because it is about to move into South America. Check the '91L Invest' links above for satellite images and forecasted track. -Gert

Wednesday June 4, 9:30AM PDT - New Forecast and Alma/Arthur
As Dave mentioned below, yesterday Klotzbach and Gray of Colorado State came out with their updated forecast. The good news is that it has not gone up from the April one, in fact, it is exactly the same. They forecast 15 named storms (including Arthur), 8 hurricanes of which 4 major ones. Normal is 9.6, 7 and 3, resp. So it will be an above average season. As always, they cannot pinpoint where those storms make landfall, if at all, but for the Caribbean they predict an "above-average major hurricane landfall risk", which is to be expected in an above average season.
They identified the following analog years (years with similar atmospheric-oceanographic conditions as we have now): 1951, 1961, 2000 and 2001, which is a bit different from the April forecast (see my older April 9 posting). Klotzbach and Gray omitted 1989 (Hugo!) and 1999 (Lefty Lenny!), but added 2001 (Iris in Belize, and Michelle, a late storm affecting mainly Nicaragua and Cuba). In any case, it doesn't really matter what the forecast is, we have to be prepared regardless. Even if they only call for one major storm this season, and if that one would hit your island you personally would have a bad, bad season.
One final note about the first storm of the season, Arthur. Some people confused it with Alma. Actually they were kind of the same. Alma formed in the Pacific, moved over Central America where it kind of fell apart. Some remnants ended up on the other side, which formed into Arthur. Some nice images, and better explanation on the NASA Earth Observatory website. -Gert

Quiet right now around the Virgin Islands. We have had a seemingly never ending array of high and low cloud cover the last week due to that upper level disturbance north of us which is being biased and sending all (well, most of it) the rain to Puerto Rico and not even giving us the courtesy of a few good showers to justify all the clouds. I'm sure the visitors to our lovely islands aren't too happy about it but for those who think you can't get a sunburn, you better think again. The cloud cover lulls you into a false sense of security, much like a lack of hurricane hits lulls you into thinking we'll be safe year after year.

Speaking of bad intentions, the system north of us has been putzing around for quite a while. It is slowly forecast to start moving northwest but the longer it sits........Also, off to the east where we normally don't start to peek this early, a wave around 9N 38W has piqued my interest. One, because it is very large. Two, it has weak rotation. And three, the steering currents are pretty straight across the Atlantic and then, just before reaching the islands, the steering currents jog northwest across Windwards. Current projections have it affecting the northern islands with showers, gusty winds and some thunderstorms (I would like that as we need the rain!) SST's are normal for the Caribbean for this time of year but warmer in the Eastern Atlantic. Saharan dust is prevalent as well but there is not a strong concentration of it ahead of this wave, only to the north according to satellite imagery. Hmmmmmmm

Sunday June 1, 6:30PM PDT - Arthur and Start of the Season
Today marks the first day of Atlantic Hurricane Season. And just one day early we already had the first Tropical Storm. This always happens when I am gone for the weekend! Arthur formed Saturday afternoon just of the coast of Belize and moved inland almost right away. Right now it is a tropical depression. However, the threat is not over by far. As with many other storms this one is a rainmaker, and is expected to producte 5-15 inch of rain in Belize, Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. This will be especially dangerous in mountainous terrain where mudslides and flash floods can form.
As said before hurricane season has started and will end November 30. One notable 'upgrade' on the website is that I changed the maps on the 'how close can it get' tool. My original map generation method was very cpu intensive which from time to time overloaded my servers. Therefore I have written a program to hook it into the Google Maps application and let them worry about the cpu-load. Although I am still not too happy about the colors it is more flexible and probably faster for you. The forecast is now projected on a Google Map which you can zoom in to, pan, or use a fancy satellite background (unfortunately no real-time weather satellite image). Also I coded it to show storm classification and forecasted winds. See it in action with Arthur or use a Fake storm. Hope you like it! Feedback is welcome.
Finally, the names for this season:

Off to the east, just off the African coast, is a super-impressive blob on colorized satellite this morning. If this was late August and September, it would be of enormous interest and concern. But, it's not, fortunately for us. Bears watching though. Ocean temperatures are marginal off the coast for development but as it moves westward, things can change as we all know. According to satellite imagery, Saharan Dust levels are fair to middling across the Atlantic Basin with no serious concentrations although here in the VI, we would beg to differ at the moment.

Thursday May 22, 4:50PM PDT - Near normal or above normal
NOAA issued their forecast for this hurricane season. If you read the headlines in the newspapers and websites they mostly say 'busy', 'active', etc. but if you read the actual NOAA press release it is less sensational. They expect it to be a "near normal or above normal" season with 12 to 16 named storms, six to nine of which are expected to become hurricanes, of which two to five will be major ones (Category 3 or higher). They blame the possible higher activity on the lingering La Nina (not to be confused with El Nino, which lowers hurricane activity).
The NOAA estimate is in the range of the Klotzbach et al (Colorado State U.), who are predicting 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes of which 4 big ones. Normal is 11 storms, of which 6 hurricanes, of which 2 big ones. Only nine days before the season starts. Be ready (regardless)! -Gert

Saturday May 10, 2008, 4:00PM PDT - Myanmar
As you have read on the news, one week after the cyclone, aid slowly seems to be allowed in by the 'government'. However, because of the lack of clean drinking water disease like cholera, malaria and diarrhea are likely to spread under these poor conditions. Earlier I posted a link on where and how to donate. I just noticed that Google is matching donations, doubling the total of your donation! See their web page. -Gert

Thursday May 8, 2008, 8:45AM PDT - How to help...
The death toll keeps climbing in Myanmar after tropical cyclone Nargis hit. Now it is estimated at 100,000! On the New York Times website there is a page about Myanmar Disaster Relief: How to Contribute. More news at news.google.com. -Gert

Monday May 5, 2008 9:10AM PDT - More Nargis...
I just read that the death toll in Myanmar (or Burma) is estimated at 10,000, with another 3,000 missing... See Reuters or news.google.com. -Gert

Sunday May 4, 2008 12:30PM PDT - Tropical Cyclone Kills Hundreds in Burma
From the Washington Post:

Thursday May 1, 2008 9:22PM PDT - Climatology of Caribbean Hurricanes
I have just updated the Climatology-section. It now covers all tropical storms from 1851 through 2007 (1,385 storms). I created about 650 webpages and 4,500 images! It has detailed information about all storm tracks that passed by your favorite island, shows the peak of the season, or when you should avoid visiting your favorite island. Furthermore I ranked each island by the number of storms passing close by. Find out what the 'hurricane capital' of the Caribbean is. Plus much more... Check it out at: stormcarib.com/climatology - Gert

After a day fishing in the 13th Annual Dolphin (Mahi-Mahi) Derby, I finally understand why they say 80% of the fish are in 10% of the ocean! It seems 10% of the boats participating were catching 90% of the fish as well! Alas, our vessel, the legendary Black Pearl on which we won the Wahoo tournament about 5 years ago (94.1 lbs!) experienced a few raises and hits but no landings! Weather was overcast most of the day with rising seas between St. Thomas and St. Croix with plenty of fish (for those 10% of participating boats) mostly off the east end of St. Croix. The largest one at weigh-in before I left was over 38lbs. Oh well, there's always next year! Besides, a day off "The Rock" fishing is a good day no matter what!

Weather-wise, it has finally rained the last few days with St. Croix receiving a much needed soaking on Saturday while sporadic showers doused the Carnival parades on St. Thomas, mostly during the afternoon at the Adult parade. After the last 5-7 years of searing heat during those parades, (I worked the street as an on-cam interviewer), a few cooling showers and overcast skies were alright with most attendees although if you wore one of those 60lb costumes and had to dance and "wuk up" for the whole parade route, I believe you would think otherwise!

Caribbean Hurricane Network

- 2 0 0 8 Season -