Hurricane Maria

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Public Advisory:

Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 73.0W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* North of Surf City to south of Cape Lookout

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts
should monitor the progress of Maria.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
to to 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 73.0 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Maria will move well east of the
southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm
Tuesday night.

Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles (150 km), primarily to the east of center, and tropical-
storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).  NOAA
buoy 41002, located about 100 miles west-northwest of Maria's
center, recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a
gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area beginning Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting portions of the coast
of the southeastern United States and Bermuda and will be increasing
along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today.
Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the northern coast of
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Aviso Público:

Huracan Maria Advertencia Intermedia Numero 38A 
Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami FL       AL152017 
Traducido por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
200 PM EDT lunes 25 de septiembre de 2017

...MARIA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE...
...FUERTE OLEAJE AFECTANDO GRAN PARTE DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS 
ESTADOS UNIDOS... 


RESUMEN DE LAS 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMACION
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...31.4 NORTE 73.0 OESTE  
CERCA DE 300 MILLAS...480 KM SSE DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE 
MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH...130 KM/H 
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...N O 360 GRADOS A 7 MPH...11 KM/H 
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...966 MB...28.53 PULGADAS 


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:

Ninguno. 

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:

Una Aviso de Tormenta Tropical para...
* Cape Lookout hasta Duck
* Albemarle y Pamlico Sounds

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical para...
* Duck hacia el norte hasta la frontera de Carolina del 
  Norte y Virginia
* Al norte de Surf City hasta el sur de Cape Lookout

Una Vigilanica de Marejada Ciclonica para...
* Cape Lookout hasta Duck

Intereses en la costa de las Carolinas y en la costas del atlantico 
central deben monitorear el progreso de Maria. 

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que condiciones de tormenta 
tropical se esperan en algun lugar dentro del area bajo aviso dentro 
de 24 a 36 horas. 

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que condiciones de 
tormenta tropical son posibles dentro del area bajo vigilancia, 
generalmente dentro de 24 a 36 horas.

Una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclonica significa la posibilidad de 
inundaciones amanezante a la vida, por el aumento en las aguas 
moviendose tierra adentro desde las costas, en las areas indicadas 
durante las proximas 48 horas. Para imformacion especifica de las 
areas en riesgo, favor de referirse a la Grafica de 
Vigilancias/Avisos del Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia, disponible 
en hurricanes.gov. 

Para informacion especifica de su area, incluyendo posibles 
vigilancias y avisos sobre tierra, favor de monitorear los productos 
emitidos por su oficina local del Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia. 


DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO DE 48 HORAS
----------------------------------

A las 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), el centro del Huracan Maria estaba 
localizado cerca de la latitud 31.4 norte, longitud 73.0 oeste. 
Maria se mueve hacia el norte cerca de 7 mph (11 km/h), y en general 
se espera que este movimiento continue hasta el martes por la noche, 
con una leve disminucion en la velocidad de avance. En la 
trayectoria pronosticada, el centro de Maria se movera 
suficientemente al este de la costa sureste de los Estados Unidos 
durante el proximo dia o dos.

Reportes de un avion cazahuracanes de la Fuerza Aerea indica que los 
vientos maximos sostenidos estan cerca de 80 mph (130 km/h) con 
rafagas mas altas. Se espera que Maria se debilite gradualmente 
durante los proximos dias y que se convierta en tormenta tropical el 
martes en la noche.

Maria es un amplio huracan. Vientos con fuerza de huracan se 
extienden hasta 90 millas (150 km) mayormente en el cuadrante este 
del centro. Los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden 
hasta 230 millas (370 km) del centro. Un boya (NOAA-41002) 
localizada cerca de 100 millas al oeste-noroeste del centro de Maria 
reporto recientemente vientos sostenidos de 45 mph (72 km/h) y 
rafagas de hasta 60 mph (96 km/h).

La presion central minima estimada por el avion cazahuracanes de 
la Fuerza Aerea es de 966 mb (28.53 pulgadas).


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------

VIENTOS: Condiciones de tormenta tropical se esperan en el area bajo 
aviso comenzando el martes. Condiciones de tormenta tropical son 
posibles en el area bajo vigilancia comenzando el martes.

MAREJADA CICLONICA: La combinacion de marejadas peligrosas y oleaje 
causaran inundaciones en areas normalmente secas cerca de la costa 
por un aumento en el nivel de aguas moviendose desde las costas. Se 
espera que el nivel del agua alcance los siguentes niveles SOBRE 
NIVEL DE LA MAREA si la marejada ocurre en combinacion con la marea 
alta... 

Cape Lookout hasta Duck, incluyendo el sur de los Outer Banks...2 a 
4 pies

Inundaciones relacionadas a la marejada ciclonica dependera del 
tiempo relativo de la marejada ciclonica y el ciclo de la marea, y 
podrian variar grandemente sobre distancias cortas. Para informacion 
especifica de su area, favor de referirse a los productos emitidos 
por su oficina local del Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia.  

LLUVIA...Se espera que Maria produzca acumulaciones totales de 1 a 2 
pulgadas sobre los Outer Banks de Carolina del Norte hasta el 
miercoles. 

MAREJADA: Marejadas generadas por Maria estan afectando porciones de 
la costa sureste de los Estados Unidos y Bermuda, y se aumenteran a 
traves de las costa medio-atlantico y el sur de Nueva Inglaterra hoy 
por el dia. Marejadas continuan afectando a Puerto Rico, las Islas 
Virgenes, la costa norte de la Espanola, las Islas Turcos y Caicos, 
y las Bahamas. Es probable que estas marejadas causen condiciones de 
resacas y corrientes marinas peligrosas amenazantes a vida. Favor de 
consultar los productos emitidos por su oficina local de 
meteorologia.  


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
Proxima advertencia completa a las 500 PM EDT. 


Discussion:
TCDAT5  
  
Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  38  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017  
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017  
  
Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Maria's structure has  
changed considerably since yesterday.  Deep convection is primarily  
confined to the eastern semicircle of the circulation and the radius  
of maximum winds has significantly increased. After not finding many  
SFMR winds over 60 kt during the overnight flights, the latest Air  
Force Reserve Aircraft measured SFMR winds of 65-70 kt about 90 n mi  
from the center over the eastern portion of the circulation. As a  
result, the initial wind speed is set at 70 kt, a slight  
readjustment from the 1200 UTC estimate indicated in the  
intermediate advisory. The 50-kt and 64-kt wind radii have also been  
adjusted outward primarily over the eastern semicircle based on the  
aircraft data.  
  
The intensity forecast reasoning remains the same as that in the  
previous advisory. Cool sea surface temperatures, moderate westerly  
shear, and dry air are expected to cause gradual weakening over the  
next couple of days. The global model guidance suggests Maria will  
remain a strong tropical cyclone as it accelerates northeastward  
later in the forecast period. Therefore, the NHC forecast is a  
little higher than the statistical guidance at those times.  
  
Maria continues to move northward or 360/6 kt. Although Maria is  
being steered northward between a mid- to upper-level low over the  
southeastern United States and a subtropical ridge over the  
southwestern Atlantic, the hurricane's forward motion should remain  
quite slow as it is currently being impeded by a mid-level ridge  
over the northeastern United States. A large mid-latitude trough is  
forecast to move across the Great Lakes region and into the  
northeast United States by the end of the week. This feature should  
cause Maria to accelerate east-northeastward to northeastward after  
72 hours. The track guidance is in excellent agreement through 48  
hours, but there are some differences in Maria's forward speed after  
that time. The NHC forecast track is near the middle of the guidance  
envelope through 48 h and is in between the ECMWF and various  
consensus models later in the period.  
  
KEY MESSAGES:  
  
1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the  
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will  
occur along portions of the North Carolina coast beginning Tuesday,  
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.  
  
2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the  
North Carolina Outer Banks, is possible beginning on Tuesday, and a  
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North  
Carolina.  
  
3. Swells from Maria are occurring along the coast of the  
southeastern United States and will be increasing along the  
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today. These swells  
will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in  
these areas through much of the week. For more information, please  
monitor information from your local National Weather Service office  
at www.weather.gov.  
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
  
INIT  25/1500Z 31.2N  72.9W   70 KT  80 MPH  CAT-1
 12H  26/0000Z 31.8N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH  CAT-1
 24H  26/1200Z 32.9N  73.1W   65 KT  75 MPH  CAT-1
 36H  27/0000Z 33.8N  73.1W   65 KT  75 MPH  CAT-1
 48H  27/1200Z 34.7N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH  TS
 72H  28/1200Z 35.7N  71.4W   60 KT  70 MPH  TS
 96H  29/1200Z 37.5N  64.5W   60 KT  70 MPH  TS
120H  30/1200Z 42.0N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH  TS
  
$$  
Forecaster Brown
Note: Storm classification added by stormcarib.com
TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...


Wind Speed:
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  38                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   8(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   7(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   5(15)   7(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   4( 4)   7(11)   5(16)   7(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   5( 5)   7(12)   6(18)   9(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  1   6( 7)   8(15)   7(22)   8(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  5  11(16)  18(34)  10(44)   8(52)   X(52)   X(52)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  4   5( 9)   8(17)   5(22)   5(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  5   8(13)  11(24)   7(31)   6(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  4   7(11)   9(20)   6(26)   5(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  3   4( 7)   7(14)   3(17)   4(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  3   4( 7)   5(12)   3(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  3   4( 7)   5(12)   2(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    


Forecast/Advisory:

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N  72.9W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N  72.9W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  73.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.8N  73.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.9N  73.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.8N  73.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.7N  73.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.7N  71.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N  64.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 42.0N  52.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N  72.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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