Tropical Depression Lee

- as issued by NHC/TPC -

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Public Advisory:

Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

...LEE REGENERATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 48.9W
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lee was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 48.9 West.  The
depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a
gradual turn to the northeast and east is forecast over the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Aviso Público:

Depresion Tropical Lee Advertencia Numero  18
Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami FL       AL142017
Traduccion por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 
500 PM AST viernes 22 de septiembre de 2017 

...LEE HA REGENERADO SOBRE EL CENTRO DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO...
...NO AMENAZA TIERRA... 


RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 0500 PM AST...2100 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...30.8NORTE 48.9 OESTE 
CERCA DE 940 MI...1515 KM E DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...N O 10 GRADOS A 7 MPH...11 KM/H 
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1014 MB...29.95 PULGADAS 


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.


DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO DE 48 HORAS
----------------------------------  
A las 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), el centro de la Depresion Tropical 
Lee estaban localizado cerca de la latitud 30.8 norte, longitud 
48.9 oeste. La depresion se mueve hacia el norte cerca de 7 mph 
(11 km/h), y un giro hacia el noreste y el este se pronostica 
durante los proximos dias. 

Vientos maximos sostenidos estan cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con 
rafagas mas altas y se espera que fortalezca durante las proximas
48 horas.   

La presion minima central estimada es de 1014 mb (29.95 pulgadas).


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------------
Ninguno.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
Esta es la ultima advertencia publica emitada por el Centro Nacional 
de Huracanes sobre este sistema.


Discussion:
TCDAT4  
  
Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number  18  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017  
500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017  
  
The mid-level circulation from Lee separated from the low-level  
center two days ago and moved northward around the eastern  
periphery of a large upper-level trough.  A large convective burst  
over the mid-level center yesterday then caused a new low-level  
center to develop while it moved on the northern side of the upper  
trough. ASCAT and ship data indicate that the small circulation is  
now well defined, and since deep convection has persisted near the  
center, advisories on Lee are being restarted. The initial wind  
speed is 30 kt, which could be conservative given the healthy  
structure seen on the last-light visible and recent microwave data.  
  
Cold upper-level temperatures from the upper trough should mitigate  
the effect of marginally warm waters for the next few days while Lee  
remains in a low-shear environment.  The depression is expected to  
strengthen over the next few days until westerly shear is forecast  
to increase. The official forecast is similar to the model guidance,  
although it shows an earlier peak more coincident with the  
lower-shear, warmer-water environment.  This wind speed forecast is  
difficult because Lee is a very small tropical cyclone, which  
notoriously have rapid changes, both up and down, in intensity.  
  
Lee is moving northward at about 6 kt.  The depression should turn  
to the northeast and east over the next couple of days while it  
moves around a ridge over the tropical central Atlantic.  Lee is  
forecast to become trapped beneath a mid-latitude ridge in a few  
days, which should cause the cyclone to drift at long range.  It  
should be noted that models have a rather weak representation of  
Lee at the present time, which causes this to be an uncertain  
forecast.  For now, the forecast is closest to the ECMWF, which  
has the most coherent cyclone to follow.  
  
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
  
INIT  22/2100Z 30.8N  48.9W   30 KT  35 MPH  TD
 12H  23/0600Z 31.7N  48.7W   40 KT  45 MPH  TS
 24H  23/1800Z 32.3N  48.2W   45 KT  50 MPH  TS
 36H  24/0600Z 32.3N  47.2W   50 KT  60 MPH  TS
 48H  24/1800Z 32.1N  45.8W   55 KT  65 MPH  TS
 72H  25/1800Z 31.4N  43.2W   60 KT  70 MPH  TS
 96H  26/1800Z 30.5N  42.0W   55 KT  65 MPH  TS
120H  27/1800Z 29.5N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH  TS
  
$$  
Forecaster Blake
Note: Storm classification added by stormcarib.com
TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...


Wind Speed:
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017               
2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    


Forecast/Advisory:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  48.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  48.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  49.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 31.7N  48.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 32.3N  48.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 32.3N  47.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 32.1N  45.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.4N  43.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 30.5N  42.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 29.5N  43.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N  48.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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