Tropical Storm Fiona

Public Advisory: TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010 ...FIONA TURNS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 65.8W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. FIONA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST FORECAST BY LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE FRIDAY. RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

Aviso Público: TORMENTA TROPICAL FIONA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082010 1100 AM EDT JUEVES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2010 ...FIONA MOVIENDOSE AL NOROESTE... RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION ---------------------------------------------- LOCALIZACION...24.4 NORTE 65.8 OESTE CERCA DE 550 MILLAS...885 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE BERMUDA VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 3305 GRADOS A 17 MPH...28 KILOMETROS POR HORA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS -------------------- EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE BERMUDA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE BERMUDA. RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE ... *BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA FUERA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS ------------------------------ A LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FIONA FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 GRADOS NORTE... LONGITUD 65.8 GRADOS OESTE. FIONA SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KILOMETROS POR HORA. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE ES ANTICIPADO ESTA NOCHE..CON UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE Y LUEGO AL NOR NORESTE PRONOSTICADO PARA TARDE EN EL VIERNES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE FIONA PASE CERCA DE BERMUDA TARDE EN EL VIERNES O TEMPRANO EN EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICAN UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS. VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA ---------------------- VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS SOBRE BERMUDA PARA TARDE EN EL VIERNES. LLUVIAS...ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN BERMUDA. ------------- PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...2:00 PM AST. PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...5:00 PM AST.

Discussion: TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010 BURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION OF FIONA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION HAS HAD TROUBLE MAINTAINING ITSELF...PROBABLY DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SHEAR. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY 45 KT. FIONA HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING 330/15. AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY LATE TOMORROW. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED ON A TRACK NEAR OR WEST OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 36-48 HRS...THOUGH WITH SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES. SINCE FIONA HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN A WEAK SYSTEM STEERED BY SWIFT LOW-LEVEL WINDS...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE GFDL SOLUTION OF A SLOWER...MORE WESTWARD TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY. THE STORM IS WALKING A TIGHTROPE BETWEEN RATHER STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR TO ITS EAST AND AN AREA OF LIGHTER SHEAR FARTHER WEST. WITH THE RIGHTWARD SHIFT OF THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING...THIS COULD CAUSE EVEN STRONGER SHEAR IN A DAY OR SO NEAR THE CYCLONE. ALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF FIONA...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL WHICH HAS AN UNREALISTIC TRACK FORECAST. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL HIGHER THAN NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 24.4N 65.8W 45 KT 52 MPH TS 12HR VT 03/0000Z 26.4N 66.5W 45 KT 52 MPH TS 24HR VT 03/1200Z 28.9N 66.7W 45 KT 52 MPH TS 36HR VT 04/0000Z 31.3N 65.7W 40 KT 46 MPH TS 48HR VT 04/1200Z 33.8N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH TS 72HR VT 05/1200Z 37.9N 61.4W 25 KT 29 MPH TD...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH Note: MPH conversion + storm classification added by stormcarib.com TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...

Wind Speed: PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 1500 UTC THU SEP 02 2010 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 4 10 21 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 5 14 26 32 37 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 91 78 63 53 37 NA NA HURRICANE 3 7 7 6 5 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 6 6 5 4 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) 12(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Forecast/Advisory: TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 1500 UTC THU SEP 02 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.8W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.8W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 65.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.4N 66.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.9N 66.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.3N 65.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 33.8N 64.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 37.9N 61.4W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 65.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH